[✔️] April 18, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest.
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Mon Apr 18 08:46:36 EDT 2022
/*April 18, 2022*/
/[ brief comments from a mass media meteorologist ]/
//*Ginger Zee: "People are Feeling" Climate Change in their Own Lives*
Apr 16, 2022
greenmanbucket
Ginger Zee is Chief Meteorologist of ABC News.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zfa06c5BJTg
/[ From Dr. James Hansen ]/
*March Temperature Update & Butterfly Report*
15 April 2022
James Hansen, Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy
March was notably warm (Fig. 1), more than 1.3°C warmer than the average
March in 1880-1920, despite continued La Nina cooling of the Pacific.
Because of the present planetary energy imbalance – discussed in prior
posts – we expect 2022 to be substantially warmer than 2021. The
imbalance is due to surging growth rates of GHGs (greenhouse gases),
solar irradiance rising from its recent minimum, and perhaps the aerosol
forcing becoming less negative, although the latter remains speculative
given the absence of measurements of the global aerosol forcing...
[ more ]
https://mailchi.mp/caa/march-temperature-update-butterfly-report?e=c4e20a3850
/[ "if you contribute to the problem, you should contribute to the
solution" - CBS TV ]/
*Suing over climate change: Taking fossil fuel companies to court*
Sunday-morning
APRIL 17, 2022
/- -
/Correspondent Ben Tracy asked, "Can you raise taxes high enough to
cover these costs?"
"It's like any big project; you gotta look under every rock,"
Tecklenburg replied.
Underneath one of those rocks are the fossil fuel companies. Study after
study has shown the companies' carbon emissions from oil, coal and gas
are major contributors to climate change.
Charleston is one of more than two dozen cities, counties and states
that are suing these companies (including ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, BP
and ConocoPhillips).
- -
Tong is suing ExxonMobil under the state's consumer protection laws. He
said internal company research done by Exxon and Mobil (which used to be
separate companies) shows they were aware of the dangers of climate
change since at least the 1980s.
"There's a study from, I think, 1982 in which they produce a chart that
shows, as the levels of carbon dioxide rise, the temperature of our
atmosphere will rise," said Tong. "And that chart is almost exactly right."
And the suit also cites a 1988 internal draft memo from an Exxon
spokesperson advising the company "emphasize the uncertainty" of climate
science...
- -
So far, the industry has filed a series of motions, slowing down the cases.
Charleston, South Carolina is bracing for a long and uncertain legal
battle. Tracy asked Mayor John Tecklenburg, "If you're not successful
with this lawsuit, what does that mean for what you're trying to do here?"
"We're gonna find a way to fund the improvements that we need," he replied.
"But I bet you've heard the phrase, 'Hope is not a strategy'?"
Tecklenburg laughed: "Hope springs eternal, right?"
But in the meantime, the water keeps rising.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-disinformation-suing-fossil-fuel-companies/
/[ climate scientist shows emotions ]/
*‘It’s critical the message makes it to the mainstream’: Nasa climate
scientist speaks on his tearful protest*
Peter Kalmus was among a group of scientists who chained themselves to a
JPMorgan Chase building in Los Angeles in protest of the bank’s
financing of fossil fuels
Ethan Freedman - Climate Reporter, New York April 17, 2022
A Nasa scientist who went viral over his tearful protest on the climate
crisis has told The Independent that his activism comes from a sense of
desperation to “find something that actually has an impact and moves the
needle”.
Peter Kalmus was among a group of scientists arrested last week...
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/protest-nasa-scientist-rebellion-b2059788.html
/[ Thank you Peter Sinclair ] /
*Ginger Zee: "People are Feeling" Climate Change in their Own Lives*
Apr 16, 2022
greenmanbucket
Ginger Zee is Chief Meteorologist of ABC News.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zfa06c5BJTg
/[ fire and rain are two parts of one disaster ] /
*Drenching Rains Pose Greater Threat to Fire-Damaged Areas in West*
Homeland Security News Wire
15 April 2022
Areas in the western U.S. scarred by wildfires now face even more
dangers: drenching rains. These rains inundate the burnt areas, causing
significant destruction, including debris flows, mudslides, and flash
floods, because the denuded landscape cannot easily contain the
drenching moisture.
The western United States this century is facing a greatly heightened
risk of heavy rains inundating areas that were recently scarred by
wildfires, new research warns. Such events can cause significant
destruction, including debris flows, mudslides, and flash floods,
because the denuded landscape cannot easily contain the drenching moisture.
A new study finds that, if society emits heat-trapping greenhouse gases
at a high rate, the number of times that an extreme fire event is likely
to be followed within one year by an extreme rainfall event will
increase by more than eight times in the Pacific Northwest by the end of
the century. It will more than double in California...
- -
Overall, more than 90% of extreme fire events ... will be followed by at
least three extreme rainfalls within five years.
The study authors, including scientists at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR), used advanced computer models of past and
future climate, as well as an index of weather variables that contribute
to wildfire risk, to reach their results.
Lead author Danielle Touma, who did much of the research at the
University of California, Santa Barbara, before coming to NCAR, noted
that previous research has shown that both wildfires and extreme
rainfall will increase in the West with climate change. However, the
increased frequency of extreme rainfall-after-fire events came as a
surprise.
“It’s very concerning, given the destruction that comes with these kinds
of events,” Touma said. “Clearly we need to understand the risks better,
as this creates a major threat to people and infrastructure.”
The study is being published this week in Science Advances. Funding came
primarily from the U.S. National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s
sponsor, and the Department of Energy. Researchers from the University
of California, Santa Barbara; the University of California, Los Angeles;
the Nature Conservancy of California; and Washington State University
contributed to the study.
*
**Fires and Rain on the Rise*
Heavy rainfall on burned areas is often hard to predict, but it can have
devastating impacts. In 2018, debris flows in Montecito, California,
caused by a brief and intense rainfall over an area that had burned just
a month earlier, left 23 people dead and caused widespread property
damage. Torrential rains in Colorado’s Glenwood Canyon last year
triggered a massive mudslide in a recently burned area, stranding more
than 100 people and closing a portion of I-70 in the canyon for weeks.
Following a fire, the risk of debris flows persists for 3-5 years, and
the risk of flash floods for 5-8 years, because of the time needed for
ground cover and fine roots to recover followed by the regrowth of
vegetation.
To study the frequency of extreme rainfall events after extreme
wildfires in a warming world, Touma and her co-authors turned to an
ensemble of simulations by a number of climate and weather models,
including the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model, a powerful
computer model that enabled them to project likely changes in climate in
the western United States.
The results indicated that, by the end of the century, there will be a
doubling or more of weather conditions that lead to the risk of extreme
wildfires throughout much of the West, with some regions experiencing
greatly elevated extreme wildfire risk within the next few decades. In
addition, the climate models showed a pronounced increase in extreme
rainfall events.
The researchers then looked at the number of cases in which extreme
rainfall is likely to fall on the same region that recently experienced
an extreme wildfire. They found that more than half of extreme wildfire
events will be followed within a year by an extreme rainfall event
across much of the West, and virtually all extreme wildfires in the
Pacific Northwest will be followed within five years by extreme
rainfall. Once every three years, drenching rains in western Colorado or
much of the Pacific Northwest may be expected to inundate regions just
three months after extreme wildfires — a scenario that was virtually
unheard of in recent decades.
Part of the reason for the confluence of extreme fire and rainfall has
to do with how climate change is altering the seasonality of these
events. For example, the study found more extreme rains occurring in the
early fall in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest, close to the peak fire
season of May to September.
“The gap between fire and rainfall season is becoming shorter,” Touma
said. “One season of disasters is running into another.”
https://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20220415-drenching-rains-pose-greater-threat-to-firedamaged-areas-in-west
/[ bold, radical, emerging thoughts about deliberate action -
organization in Tasmania ]/
*Approaching Collapse forum [edited]*
Oct 20, 2021
Just Collapse
Infinite growth on a finite planet has pushed us into crisis, and this
forum tackles the difficult questions and taboo topics: Bursting the
fantasy of sustainability based on clean energy transition and arguing
for equitable approaches to global population. Pathways forward include
a deliberate contraction of the human enterprise and a planned collapse.
0:00 Dr Kate Booth (University of Tasmania); 12:08 Megan Seibert (The
REAL Green New Deal Project); 41:10 Tristan Sykes (Just Collapse); 57:46
Q&A (inc. Prof Bill Rees).
This forum took place at the University of Tasmania, as part of Global
Climate Change Week 2021.
https://youtu.be/2BjilH04QXQ
- -
/[deeper words at their website ]/
*Just Collapse*
- Just Collapse is an activist platform dedicated to justice in face of
inevitable and irreversible global collapse.
- Just Collapse advocates for a Planned Collapse to avert the worst
outcomes that will follow an otherwise unplanned, reactive collapse.
- Just Collapse recognizes that there will be no justice in an unplanned
collapse.
https://justcollapse.org/
/
/
/[ reality as a metaphor for game theory ]/
*Game theory says the Paris Agreement looks like a winner for the climate*
By Lila MacLellan
Quartz at Work reporter
April 17, 2022
One of game theory’s classic dilemmas is called the stag hunt. In this
scenario, two hunters are out in the woods. Both agree to shoot a deer
together. If they cooperate, they may go home with the prize stag. It’s
a gamble, but a big reward. Yet they face a choice. Either hunter can
choose to trap a rabbit alone instead. The smaller animal, while less
tantalizing, is easier to catch. It practically guarantees they’ll have
meat in their own pot next meal assuming they give up on the bigger prize.
The key to mutual success—and the biggest win—comes when both parties
establish mutual trust and cooperate. If they don’t, they’re each
tempted to break the original pact, pursue a rabbit, and end up with less.
That, in a nutshell, describes today’s global climate change
predicament, according to game theorists, economists who study strategy
dilemmas. Every country would benefit by cooperating, but they’re
tempted to cheat by sticking to fossil fuels and continuing to invest in
carbon-emitting industries, leaving everyone worse off.
Game theory—a branch of economic theory that uses math to predict how
players will respond to a competitive situation when the outcome depends
on how players react— offers one of the best glimpses into how this
might end.
The climate game is playing out under the international agreement called
the Paris Agreement which commits countries to limit global warming to
below 2 degrees Celsius, thus avoiding the most catastrophic effects of
climate change. Right now, the most optimistic game theorists say this
strategy could be a winner because it’s structured just like a stag
hunt, also known as an assurance or trust game...
https://qz.com/2099301/game-theory-says-the-paris-agreement-might-be-a-climate-winner/
/[The news archive - looking back at significant events]/
*April 18, 1977*
President Carter declares that the effort needed to avert an energy
crisis is the "moral equivalent of war."
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=7369
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