[✔️] August 24, 2022 - Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Wed Aug 24 10:48:11 EDT 2022
/*August 24, 2022*/
/[ DW news gives 8 min video report ]/
*Disruption in water cycle threatens the Earth | DW News*
Aug 23, 2022 According to the European Commission, the current drought
could be the worst "for at least 500 years." Large swaths of the
continent are now in a state of drought alert or drought warning.
Rising temperatures and extreme heat have left countries around the
world parched. From China to the United States and Mexico to Kenya,
drought has taken hold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZcmLYid5XI
/[ political sea change in a state legislature ]/
*After decades in GOP, Colo. senator says: ‘We need Democrats in charge’*
Kevin Priola writes there is ‘too much at stake right now’ in two-page
letter explaining decision to change parties
Image without a caption
By Jonathan Edwards
August 23, 2022
Colorado state Sen. Kevin Priola was a Republican for 32 years. On
Monday, he announced that he couldn’t be one any longer.
So he defected to the Democrats.
There is “too much at stake right now for Republicans to be in charge,”
Priola wrote in a two-page letter explaining his decision, adding:
“Simply put, we need Democrats in charge.”
Priola cited two reasons for the switch: Many Republicans peddling false
claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen and the party’s
efforts to block legislation that would fight climate change...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/08/23/colorado-republican-democrat-party-switch/
/[Scientific American tells us what we know already...What took you so
long?]/
*Climate Change Actions Are Far More Popular Than People in U.S. Realize*
“False social reality” obscures widespread U.S. support for climate
protection measures.
August 23, 2022
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-actions-are-far-more-popular-than-people-in-u-s-realize/
/[ Video report on mysterious giant holes in the Arctic regions -
methane explosions ]/
*Siberia's sinkholes: What they may mean for climate*
20 views Aug 23, 2022 First identified in 2014, mysterious "sinkholes"
or openings in the Siberian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZEsuZ0gS2Q
/[ The Behavioral Insights Team -- an important site for our times ]/
*Protecting consumers from greenwashing*
There is a growing epidemic of climate anxiety
23rd Jun 2022
A recent study of over 10,000 young people across 10 countries found
that more than half think humanity is doomed, while 45% say
climate-related anxiety and distress is affecting their daily lives.
This large and growing group of concerned citizens want to take
meaningful action to avert the climate crisis. This means changing a
range of behaviours including what products they buy, what foods they
eat, what job they apply for and who they vote for.
*For concerned citizens to take meaningful climate action, they need
accurate information on the environmental impacts of their choices.*
Most consumers and voters live busy lives, and look no further than
marketing materials to assess the green credentials of their energy
company or political party. However these days everyone has “gone green”
– or at least that’s the way it looks on the surface. Organisations make
bold environmental claims, often in place of substantive green action –
a misleading practice known as greenwashing. The doublespeak of
high-polluting corporations was perhaps best exposed by an HSBC
responsible investment executive who recently said the quiet-part loud:
“Who cares if Miami is 6 metres underwater in 100 years?”.
Many environmental groups have been concerned about greenwashing for
some time – one such group, Clean State, approached us to help them
learn more about greenwashing.
*We wanted to understand how harmful greenwashing is, and what can
be done to protect consumers, so we ran an online trial.*
Research on greenwashing is nascent, so we selected two interventions
shown to protect people from online misinformation. Participants were
randomly assigned to receive either:
-- A literacy intervention – we provided information to help
participants understand greenwashing and its intentions. This
intervention most closely resembles existing anti-greenwashing campaigns
--A pre-bunking intervention – participants imagined they were an
energy company and were asked to plan a marketing campaign with a
greenwashing goal. The idea is that weakened exposure to
greenwashing strategies can build resistance to future manipulation.
-- A control intervention – no greenwashing intervention.
They then saw greenwashed ads we mocked up depicting fictional energy
companies deploying common greenwashing strategies. One ad distracted
consumers from the wider impact of the energy company, by drawing
attention to a vague low impact action (“our offices are now green”).
The other greenwashed ad exaggerated individual responsibility by
promoting a carbon footprint calculator. Both claims are not negative in
and of themselves, rather they act as smoke-and-mirrors, distracting
consumers from the wider environmental impact of an energy company’s
operations. We also showed participants a non-greenwashed ad (“we’re
creating thousands of jobs”).
*Unfortunately, we found that greenwashing works!*
Over half (57%) of consumers (in the control condition) believed that
greenwashed claims were a reliable source of information about a
company’s eco-practices. Consumers were also much more likely to agree
that greenwashing energy companies had strong green credentials,
compared to energy companies depicted in a non-greenwashed advertisement.
Note that the firms were entirely fictional, and one of the
advertisements did not even make any specific claim about the firms
environmental practices; it merely suggested using an online calculator
to calculate a person’s carbon footprint. Nonetheless, the imagery was
enough to increase perceptions of green credentials.
*But our interventions worked to protect people from greenwashing*
The good news is, the interventions made consumers more sceptical about
greenwashing companies. Consumers who received both the literacy and
prebunking interventions rated the green credentials of the fictional
companies significantly lower compared to the control group. They
resulted in an approximate 0.6 point shift on a 7 point scale.
*Those most concerned about climate were most harmed, and most protected*
Consumers who were more concerned about the environment were highly
susceptible to greenwashing. Perversely, this means that the growing
number of concerned consumers motivated to make a difference are the
biggest victims of greenwashing. Despite intending to make greener
choices, they may be selecting products or services that are much more
harmful than they believe. However the silver lining is that these
consumers benefited most from our interventions, making them prime
targets for future greenwashing literacy and pre-bunking campaigns.
*Our trial shows that consumers are vulnerable and need protection*
In order to empower citizens and especially those most concerned about
climate, we need to protect them from the harms of greenwashing. The
greatest impact is likely to be achieved by tightening regulations of
advertising standards, as the French government has recently done.
French organisations accused of greenwashing could be fined up to 80% of
the cost of false green campaigns.
In the absence of regulatory change, our trial demonstrates that
evidence-based literacy and pre-bunking campaigns provide substantial
protection from greenwashing. Organisations already doing important work
in this space (see Greenpeace’s campaign to cut through the greenwashing
of energy retailers) should be bolstered by this evidence. If engaged
with en-masse, these interventions could re-enfranchise consumers to
make more meaningful choices for the planet.
Of course, there’s lots of ways that this work could be extended – if
you’re interested in talking about how we can go about tackling this
challenge or thinking about how we can tackle this issue, get in touch
(ravi.dutta-powell at bi.team)
https://www.bi.team/blogs/there-is-a-growing-epidemic-of-climate-anxiety/
/
/
/////[ good questions posed by Outside magazine ]/
*Far More People Die from Heat Exposure than We Know. A Simple Program
Might Help.*
Public-health crises are greatly helped by accurate numbers. Why can’t
we get a true count of heat deaths?
Sarah Trent - Aug 22, 2022
The week that Death Valley National Park rangers realized David Kelleher
was missing, temperatures soared to 123 degrees Fahrenheit. On
Wednesday, June 8, a ranger spotted the 67-year-old’s car in the
Zabriskie Point parking lot, where sweeping views of the badlands and
salt flats make it one of the most popular stops in the park, which
straddles the California-Nevada border. On Saturday night, after a
122-degree day, the same ranger noticed that Kelleher’s car was still
there—with a note inside reading “out of gas”—and launched an investigation.
sHeat that weekend slowed the search. In temperatures over 115 degrees,
helicopters can’t generate the lift to fly safely, and daytime ground
searches are dangerous, too. When they could, searchers focused on the
trail system nearby. But he wasn’t found until early the following
week—park visitors discovered him about 2.5 miles away from his car, his
body hidden by a tree just 30 feet off the main road.
When Abby Wines, the park’s public information officer (PIO), prepared
the press release the next day, she wrote that it seemed he’d been
walking toward Furnace Creek, where there’s an inn, a visitor center,
and a gas station. She also noted how hot it had been, figuring readers
would make the connection with that week’s heat wave. But, as in most
park deaths she thinks are likely heat related, she couldn’t formally
say that it was. This is because it is tough, sometimes impossible, to
identify as a cause of death with an autopsy. Investigations of
fatalities like these by medical examiners can take weeks and even
months, if they happen at all, leaving the public no better informed
about just how dangerous local conditions are and who is at risk of
illness or death on the trail.
It’s part of a problem that plagues heat-fatality data nationwide. These
deaths occur in parks, cities, stadiums, farm fields, senior-living
apartments, and homeless camps, both during extreme heat events but also
on regular hot days. Most who die from heat-related illness are never
officially counted as having died from hot conditions, which
epidemiologists, coroners, local and state governments, the
Environmental Protection Agency, and the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention all say hampers the public’s understanding of the dangers of
heat and stymies efforts to prevent further deaths.
Kelleher’s was the second such death in a matter of weeks, following
John McCarry, 69, whose body was found June 1. In 2021, of six hiker
fatalities in Death Valley, park press releases noted the high
temperatures at the time related to three. A fourth, a 27-year-old woman
who died hiking in November, was speculated by some media as a
heat-related fatality, but her cause of death was never publicized.
“It becomes very awkward for me as a PIO,” Wines says. “There’s no sign
of foul play. That’s the only thing I can say. There’s no sign of
suicide or someone attacking them. But the difference between a
heat-related medical event and a medical event that’s just your time to
go= and you happen to be in the middle of nowhere—usually that nuance
isn’t very clear.”
Outdoor adventurers of all stripes are used to databases, logs, and
publications that help them (and researchers) understand how people die
outside so they might avoid a similar fate, including the national
avalanche-fatality database, the American Alpine Club’s annual report
Accidents in North American Mountaineering, the American Whitewater
Accident Database, and more.
Heat, the “leading weather-related killer in the United States,”
according to the EPA, has no such database. But as public-health experts
around the country call for a better accounting of heat-related
illnesses and deaths, efforts to do so are taking hold in places from
Phoenix to California to the CDC’s offices in Atlanta. These initiatives
could help us better understand a phenomenon that doctors and climate
scientists agree is getting deadlier, preventing future deaths from
occurring.
In the 1990s, two of the nation’s worst heat waves swept the country,
killing 118 people in Philadelphia in ’93 and 739 in Chicago in ’95. In
reports on both disasters, the CDC noted that its understanding of the
deaths was limited, because medical examiners had “no uniform definition
for heat-related death.”
CDC officials later estimated the number of heat-related deaths by
comparing those numbers to average deaths from previous years—a practice
called “excess death analysis,” which is still the preferred method to
estimate fatalities during disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic.
But the incomplete data meant that officials in Chicago couldn’t specify
which deaths were heat related or whether certain groups had been
impacted disproportionately and why. It also meant that, outside of
large disasters like these, officials had no reliable understanding of
how many people die from heat, because it’s so hard to definitively
identify with an autopsy, and because not everyone who dies of
heatstroke gets one in the first place.
In response, in 1997, the National Association of Medical Examiners
(NAME) published “Criteria for the Diagnosis of Heat-Related Deaths” in
The American Journal of Forensic Medicine and Pathology. But even these
criteria have limitations. If a person’s core temperature before death
is at least 105, the criteria states, “cause of death should be
certified as heat stroke or hyperthermia.” Lower readings can still
qualify if witnesses or blood tests before death verify symptoms of
heatstroke, such as confusion, low sodium, or heat-damaged muscle
proteins leached into the blood.
If a person is found dead, which is often the case on trails and during
heat waves, the criteria are squishier. An autopsy can’t identify those
same conditions. Environmental factors might be unknown. In older
individuals with underlying conditions, which are often exacerbated by
heat, diagnosis can be even trickier.
Kathryn Pinneri, current president of the NAME and director of forensic
services for Montgomery County, Texas, says that, given the hypothetical
of a hiker who died in Death Valley when conditions were known to be hot
but the body wasn’t found for several weeks, she would probably classify
their death as “undetermined.”
“Unless there’s something really clear, like a specific note or text
message saying, ‘I forgot my water and it’s 120 degrees,’ most of us
would classify those deaths as undetermined if there was no definable
cause of death,” she says.
The CDC, which pulls from coded death-certificate data, reports that
about 700 Americans die each year from heat-related illnesses. A highly
regarded excess death analysis published in 2020 by Environmental
Epidemiology puts that number at more than 5,600.
Greg Wellenius, an environmental epidemiologist and an author of that
analysis, says that even those numbers are “probably an underestimate,”
pointing to another research group that calculates it closer to 10,000.
“That number—whether it’s 6,000, 10,000, or 15,000—is in the ballpark of
something we should pay attention to,” he says. “It’s worth investing in
better understanding: Who is at risk, when are they at risk, and,
importantly, what can we do about it?”
The nature and scale of heat-related deaths makes them difficult to
compare with other environmental accidents, but the way we handle
avalanche deaths stands out as a case study in what’s possible when the
resulting deaths are both well documented and widely communicated to the
public.
At their most basic, heat and avalanches are common natural phenomena
that regularly cause preventable deaths. Researchers who study both talk
similarly about the value of learning from previous incidents, but while
heat has remained largely underestimated by the public and the data, the
systems in place to forecast avalanches, educate the public, and
document exactly who dies in such events and why is a public-health
success story.
The national avalanche-fatality database, maintained by the Colorado
Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) in partnership with the U.S. Forest
Service, grew out of an effort to understand a new and pressing problem:
the exploding popularity of skiing in the mid-20th century in the
Mountain West, which placed more recreationalists at risk. The Forest
Service developed avalanche-safety and forecasting programs to protect
skiers—along with mountain-town residents, drivers, and workers—and a
group of forecasters “saw the value in starting to better document”
incidents, says Karl Birkeland, director of the Forest Service’s
National Avalanche Center.
The first Snowy Torrents, which publishes detailed accounts of every
fatal avalanche accident on record, came out in 1968 and has since grown
into a database that records accidents from the mid-1800s through the
present day.
“It resonates with people when you tell them exactly what happened in an
accident, so hopefully they can avoid it,” says Ethan Greene, who runs
the CAIC. “People relate much better to real-world narratives than a
kind of esoteric description of a potential threat.”
Today, he says, reports are based on data collected as quickly as
possible by staff of the nearest avalanche center, who travel to
document snow and weather conditions, narratives from witnesses and
survivors, and any available information from first responders and
coroner reports. Although resource intensive, this kind of information
has proven invaluable in the effort to increase public understanding of
conditions and risks during the winter season and has helped
researchers, policymakers, and rescuers alike understand long-term
trends about how and why people die in avalanches.
Birkeland says that since the mid-1990s, when their reports and
forecasts became easily accessible online, annual deaths have stabilized
at around 25 to 30 per year despite an estimated 12-fold increase in
recreation. “We can use that as a rough measure of the effectiveness of
our avalanche forecasting and education programs,” he says. Education,
outreach, and data collection about heat deaths could help equip people
to better navigate that public-health crisis, too.
Public understanding of the deadly nature of extreme heat seems to be
improving. In the aftermath of the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, The
New York Times published an excess death analysis showing that 600
people had died, while death-certificate data recorded less than 200. An
investigation in the Los Angeles Times later that year noted that heat
deaths in California are as much as six times higher than official counts.
Now, Wellenius says, “there’s a huge movement to address the problem.”
The epidemiologist points to the city of Phoenix, which last year
created an Office of Heat Response and Mitigation, and to Miami, which
appointed the world’s first chief heat officer. This spring, California
governor Gavin Newsom’s office launched an extreme-heat action plan; one
goal is to “modernize the Electronic Death Registration System to
register heat-related deaths” in order to help prevent them. And the CDC
says it continues to improve its new Heat and Health Tracker, a
dashboard launched in 2021 that tracks weather conditions and
heat-related ER visits.
David Hondula, who leads the new heat office in Phoenix, says that his
work advocating for solutions and preventing deaths is possible because
the Maricopa County Public Health Department has a complete grasp of who
is getting sick and dying from heat. Because that department monitors
hospital discharge data for heat-related diagnoses using an especially
broad set of criteria, “we’re able to precisely understand” who is
dying, how, and where, he says. He knows how many of the 339 who died in
2021 were houseless, had underlying conditions, or were out hiking on
Camelback Mountain, a popular area hike where average temperatures hover
above 100 degrees four months of the year.
This means he can direct hydration and cooling stations where data shows
they’re most needed, advocate for affordable housing, because more
people die without it, and ensure appropriate signage on trails where
conditions and rescues are particularly dangerous in heat.
Back in her office in Death Valley National Park, Wines has nothing like
this. In fact, she says, she hardly has any data at all. She recalls a
recent call from another reporter, who requested annual stats on
heat-related emergencies and deaths.
“It looks like we’re just avoiding the question, but we don’t have
everything coded that way in our system,” Wines acknowledges. “I would
love it if it was a clear thing and we could say: this many people on
average die because of heat, and we have this many medical responses by
law enforcement, and it costs the taxpayers this much money.” But she
doesn’t have that data.
If she did, she says, “I think it would be a lot easier to tell people
how dangerous it is.”
https://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/exploration-survival/far-more-people-die-from-heat-exposure-than-we-know-a-simple-program-might-help/
[ a classic paper ]
*Climate Change and Adaptation in Global Supply-Chain Networks*
Proceedings of Paris December 2019 Finance Meeting
European Corporate Governance Institute – Finance Working Paper No. 775/2021
80 Pages Posted: 29 Oct 2019 Last revised: 10 Aug 2021
Nora M. C. Pankratz
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Christoph Schiller
Arizona State University (ASU) - W.P. Carey School of Business
Date Written: June 25, 2021
*Abstract*
This paper examines how physical climate risks affect firms'
financial performance and operational risk management in global
supply-chains. We document that weather shocks at supplier locations
reduce the operating performance of suppliers and their customers.
Further, customers respond to perceived changes in suppliers'
climate-risk exposure: When realized shocks exceed ex-ante
expectations, customers are 6-11% more likely to terminate existing
supplier-relationships. Consistent with models of experience-based
learning, this effect increases with signal strength and repetition,
is insensitive to long-term climate projections, and increases with
industry competitiveness and decreases with supply-chain
integration. Customers subsequently choose replacement suppliers
with lower expected climate-risk exposure.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3475416
/[ The progressive destabilizations of global climates means more
traumas ahead ]/
*How Heat Waves Take a Toll on Mental Health*
Extreme heat can influence mood and raise the likelihood of a more
serious mental health issue. Here’s what to know.
By Hannah Seo
Aug. 19, 2022
Tens of millions of people across the United States have been enduring
heat wave after heat wave this summer, in what feels like an unrelenting
succession of humid days and scorching temperatures. While there’s no
denying that extreme heat and humidity can be physically uncomfortable,
research suggests that such conditions can be trying on your
psychological well-being, too.
“We see across the whole spectrum of mental health” that heat extremes
are damaging to mental well-being, said Nick Obradovich, a computational
social scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and
co-author of a 2018 study that analyzed the mental health risks of
climate change.
Studies have found links between rising temperatures and a range of
mental health issues including mental fatigue, aggression and even
higher rates of suicide. This connection is not just limited to surges
in temperature, Dr. Obradovich said, it’s also present for people living
in climates where it is consistently hot. (Though of course mental
health trends can depend on a variety of factors outside of temperature,
too.)
Scientists have yet to uncover why this may be, and whether heat itself
can cause brain changes that may lead to these effects. But regardless,
experts say, it’s clear that oppressive heat is linked with worse mental
health.
*What the research says*
Evidence suggests that “temperature extremes can influence everything
from your day-to-day mood all the way up to your probability of
experiencing an acute mental health crisis,” Dr. Obradovich said.
- -
One study published in JAMA Psychiatry in February, for instance,
scrutinized the medical records of more than 2.2 million adults who
visited emergency departments from 2,775 counties across the United
States between 2010 and 2019. The authors found that there were about 8
percent more emergency department visits for mental health concerns on
the hottest days of summer than there were on the coolest days.
Emergency visits for issues like self-harm, as well as for substance
use, anxiety, mood and schizophrenia disorders, all rose consistently in
proportion with the temperature.
This trend is “fairly uniform for both men and women, for adults of all
ages and for people living in all parts of the U.S.,” said Amruta
Nori-Sarma, an environmental health scientist at the Boston University
School of Public Health and an author of the study.
Other research has also found that higher temperatures may temporarily
trigger relapses in people with bipolar disorder, and that higher
sunlight exposures could increase the risk of manic episodes. Higher
temperatures have also been associated with deaths among people with
schizophrenia and other mental health conditions.
Survey data from 1.9 million Americans between 2008 and 2013 found that
on days when temperatures exceeded 70 degrees, respondents were more
likely to feel reduced joy and happiness, as well as increased stress,
anger and fatigue, than they were on days when temperatures were between
50 and 60 degrees. These associations were especially strong when
temperatures were above 90 degrees, the authors noted.
*What is going on in the body?*
“When we’re not comfortable, we’re not at our best,” said C. Munro
Cullum, a clinical neuropsychologist at UT Southwestern Medical Center,
in Dallas. The discomfort of heat, and the energy it takes for the body
to cool down, can lower overall resilience. So agitation, irritation and
pain become less bearable, he said.
Our bodies are also used to a certain baseline level of stress, said Dr.
Martin Paulus, scientific director and president of the Laureate
Institute for Brain Research in Tulsa, Okla., who worked with Dr.
Obradovich on his 2018 study. When the body attempts to regulate its
temperature during a heat wave, he said, it adds additional strain and
results in more stress and inflammation. People with pre-existing mental
health conditions may be especially vulnerable to the added heat stress,
which can push their symptoms over the top, he said.
As for what’s happening in the brain during extreme heat, that’s
challenging to study, Dr. Paulus said. In a lab, you can experiment with
how the brain and the rest of the body withstand a few minutes or
possibly hours of high temperatures, but you can’t do that for days,
weeks or months at a time — and it’s those longer exposures that are
really important for understanding how climate change may affect us in
the long run.
But the fact that this link between heat and mental health is so
consistent in people around the world suggests that the heat is doing
something to the brain, Dr. Nori-Sarma said. Some researchers have
hypothesized that heat may cause an imbalance in brain signaling or
inflammation in the brain. But another prominent theory is that heat
causes sleep disruptions, which in turn can worsen mental health symptoms.
Warm nights significantly worsen sleep, Dr. Obradovich said. “And we
know from a large body of literature in psychology and psychiatry that
insufficient sleep, sleep difficulties, and insomnia are very closely
linked to worse mental health status over time.”
It’s possible that the explanation for heat’s effect on mental health
may come from a combination of these different existing theories, Dr.
Obradovich added.
*Other potential elements at play*
We also cannot forget about climate anxiety, Dr. Paulus said. Wildfires
and heat waves, among other weather-related events, are increasing in
frequency and intensity because of climate change. As global warming
worsens, eco-anxiety might exacerbate other stress, anxiety, depression
or even disaster-related post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms, he added.
Certain people are also more vulnerable to heat than others. In their
2018 study, Dr. Obradovich and Dr. Paulus’s team found that those with
lower incomes experienced worse mental health effects from heat than
those with higher incomes, and women experienced worse effects than men.
Combined, they found that the effect of heat on mental health was twice
as bad for low-income women as it was for high-income men.
In the throes of a heat wave, it’s not always clear how to protect
yourself. But being mindful of your heat exposure, staying hydrated and
avoiding the heat when you can, are always good options. Looking out for
people in your community is also a powerful, overlooked strategy, Dr.
Nori-Sarma said.
That means “neighbors checking in on neighbors, friends and families
making sure that everyone’s OK.”
Hannah Seo is a reporting fellow for The Times, covering mental and
physical health and wellness. @ahannahseo
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/19/well/mind/heat-mental-health.html
/[The news archive - looking back at our draft proposals and times when
we meant well, we just forgot to follow-through ]/
/*August 24, 2005*/
August 24, 2005: The New York Times reports: "Officials in New York and
eight other Northeastern states have come to a preliminary agreement to
freeze power plant emissions at their current levels and then reduce
them by 10 percent by 2020, according to a confidential draft proposal.
"The cooperative action, the first of its kind in the nation, came after
the Bush administration decided not to regulate the greenhouse gases
that contribute to global warming. Once a final agreement is reached,
the legislatures of the nine states will have to enact it, which is
considered likely."
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/24/nyregion/24air.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&
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