[✔️] February 14, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[👀 Richard Pauli]

/*February  14, 2022*/

/[  Politics injected  ]
/*Trump-Appointed Judge Just Dealt a Blow to Biden’s Climate Efforts*
The order blocks federal agencies from basing decisions on the global 
“social cost of carbon.”
When a fossil-fuel power plant releases a ton of carbon dioxide into the 
atmosphere, how much does that increase the cost of property damage from 
rising seas—or hurricanes, or wildfires? What’s the price tag on the 
loss of crops and worsening human health outcomes caused by that ton of 
greenhouse gas?

According to the scientists in President Joe Biden’s administration, the 
answer is $51—at least for now. This number, known as the “social cost 
of carbon,” puts a dollar amount on the harm done by climate pollution. 
It’s a vital figure for all kinds of federal policymaking—from vehicle 
milage standards to pipeline approvals to oil and gas drilling—and also 
a deeply controversial one, given the huge range of factors that go into 
it. As former Mother Jones climate reporter Rebecca Leber wrote last year:

    Settling on that one number is a minefield of disagreement, because
    it hinges on estimating generations of damages from climate change
    as well as the wealth of future generations. While science supports
    a high social cost of carbon to hasten the transition away from
    fossil fuels, the politics are much messier and fraught. It’s been a
    hotly contested issue since the Obama administration, which settled
    on $51 per metric ton finalized in 2016. The Obama administration
    used estimates of the social cost of carbon to help justify EPA
    rules directly targeting climate change, like reducing carbon
    emissions from cars and trucks, and indirectly, such as regulating
    mercury from power plants. An even higher figure would help to
    justify more aggressive action.

Amid all this messiness, former President Donald Trump lowered the 
estimate to between $1 and $7, allowing him to slash climate 
regulations, Leber reported. (By his administration’s reasoning, climate 
change impact outside the US shouldn’t factor in to the figure.) Biden, 
in turn, restored the social cost to an interim figure of $51 based on 
global climate change impacts, and revived a working group to update it.
- -
Cain’s ruling is a blow to Biden administration’s efforts to bring US 
climate policy more in line with that of the rest of the world, the 
Guardian writes. Meanwhile, the working group to update the social cost 
of carbon is running behind—the panel was expected to issue its findings 
a month ago.
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/02/trump-appointee-judge-strikes-down-biden-administration-climate-social-cost-carbon/

/- -/

/[  How to figure the cost of carbon  ]/
*What is the ‘social cost of carbon’? 2 energy experts explain after 
court ruling blocks Biden’s changes*
Krane and Finley -- February 12, 2022
When an electric company runs a coal- or natural gas-fired power plant, 
the greenhouse gases it releases cause harm – but the company isn’t 
paying for the damage.

Instead, the costs show up in the billions of tax dollars spent each 
year to deal with the effects of climate change, such as fighting 
wildfires and protecting communities from floods, and in rising 
insurance costs.

This damage is what economists call a “negative externality.” It is a 
cost to society, including to future generations, that is not covered by 
the price people pay for fossil fuels and other activities that emit 
greenhouse gases, like agriculture.

To try to account for some of the damage, federal policymakers use 
what’s known as a “social cost of carbon.”

A tug-of-war over the social cost
The social cost of carbon, a dollar figure per ton of carbon dioxide 
released, is factored into the costs and benefits of proposed 
regulations and purchasing decisions, such as whether the Postal Service 
should buy electric- or gasoline-powered trucks, or where to set 
emissions standards for coal-fired power plants.

That extra social cost can tip the scales for whether a regulation’s 
costs appear to outweigh its benefits.

The Trump administration slashed the social cost to between $1 and $7 
per metric ton of carbon dioxide – low enough that it could justify 
rolling back EPA regulations on power plant emissions and vehicle fuel 
efficiency...
- -
A higher social cost of carbon signals to companies that the government 
sees big benefits to cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Figuring in 
damage from emissions also helps it justify investments in green technology.

For instance, the U.S. Postal Service has asked Congress to approve 
$11.3 billion for a new fleet of gasoline-powered mail delivery trucks. 
Those vehicles would burn through 110 million gallons of gasoline a 
year. At $51 per ton of emitted carbon, that purchase implies a social 
cost of $1.1 billion over 20 years. Incorporating such costs might push 
the government to consider including electric vehicles in the future 
postal service fleet...
- -
*Other options: Carbon taxes and emissions caps*
There are other ways to account for the costs of climate change.

A carbon tax is more straightforward and effective, but tougher to enact 
because it requires Congress to act. Such a tax would dissuade people 
from burning fossil fuels by taxing them for the damage those emissions 
cause – the negative externality.

Another form of carbon pricing uses a marketplace for companies to trade 
a declining number of emissions permits. Such cap-and-trade programs are 
in place today in the European Union, a few U.S. states, including 
California and Washington, and elsewhere.

Taxes and emissions caps would reduce carbon emissions, but they are 
unpopular with voters and Congress because they raise prices. A social 
cost of carbon is easier both to enact and to modify through regulatory 
review, without legislation. It allows the government the flexibility to 
address climate through routine policymaking – but can also be changed 
by subsequent administrations.
https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-social-cost-of-carbon-2-energy-experts-explain-after-court-ruling-blocks-bidens-changes-176255

/
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/[  we know because we asked people.   ]
/*The world is on fire and our leaders are failing, poll finds*
Poll respondents voice frustration at being left to take on climate 
action on their own after governments and companies fail to act./..
/https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/08/citizens-politicians-combat-climate-change-00004590/
/

/
/

/
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/[ trouble in Europe comes from a destabilize global climate system ] /
*Climate change-induced extreme winter drought devastates crops in Spain 
and Portugal*
By Euronews  with AP   2- 13- 2022
Roofs peeking out of the water have become common every summer at the 
Lindoso reservoir in northwestern Spain.

In parched years, parts would appear of the old village of Aceredo, 
submerged three decades ago when a hydropower dam flooded the valley.

But never before has the skeleton of the village emerged in its entirety 
in the middle of the usually wet winter season...
"Look at it now," said Penín, pointing at the cracked, yellow bed of the 
reservoir." It's so sad."

Prolonged drought imperils crops
While the arid zones of the Iberian Peninsula have historically 
experienced periods of drought, experts say climate change has 
exacerbated the problem.

This year, amid record levels of low or no rainfall at all, farmers in 
both Portugal and Spain, who are growing produce for all of Europe, are 
worried that their crops for this season will be ruined.

In the last three months of 2021, Spain recorded just 35% of the average 
rainfall it had seen during the same period from 1981 to 2010. But there 
has been almost no rain since then.

According to the national weather agency AEMET, only in 2005 has there 
been a January with almost no rain in this century. If clouds don't 
unleash in the next two weeks, emergency subsidies for farmers will be 
needed, authorities said.

But Rubén del Campo, a spokesman for the weather service, said the 
below-average rainfall over the last six months is likely to continue 
for several more weeks, with hopes that spring will bring much-needed 
relief...

While only 10% of Spain has officially been declared under a "prolonged 
drought," large areas, particularly in the south, face extreme shortages 
that could impact the irrigation of crops.

The valley around the Guadalquivir River in Spain's southwest was 
declared under prolonged drought in November.

It is now the focus of a fierce environmental dispute over water rights 
near Doñana National Park, a World Heritage wetland site.

The government of the Andalusia region wants to grant water rights to 
farmers on land near the park. Still, critics say the move will further 
endanger a major wildlife refuge that is already drying up.

"The past two, three years have been dry, with the tendency toward less 
and less rain," said Andrés Góngora, a 46-year-old tomato farmer in 
southern Almería.

Góngora, who expects the water he uses from a desalinating plant to be 
rationed, is still better off than other farmers who specialize in wheat 
and grains for livestock feed.

"The cereal crops for this year have been lost," Góngora said.

Cicadas sing summer songs in February
Other areas in central and northeast Spain are also feeling the burn.

The leading association of farmers and livestock breeders in Spain, 
COAG, warns that half of Spain's farms are threatened by drought this year.

It says if it does not rain heavily in the coming month, rain-fed crops 
including cereals, olives, nuts and vineyards could lose 60% to 80% of 
their production.

But the association is also worried about crops that depend on 
irrigation, with reservoirs under 40% of capacity in most of the south.

Spain's left-wing government plans to dedicate over 570 million euros 
from the EU pandemic recovery fund to make its irrigation systems more 
efficient, including incorporating renewable energy systems.

Earlier this week, Spanish Agriculture Minister Luis Planas said that 
the government would take emergency measures if it did not rain in two 
weeks.

Those would likely be limited to economic benefits to alleviate the loss 
of crops and revenues for farmers.

Neighboring Portugal has also seen little rain since last October. By 
the end of January, 45% of the country was enduring "severe" or 
"extreme" drought conditions, according to the national weather agency IPMA.

Rainfall from 1 October through January was less than half the annual 
average for that four-month period, alarming farmers who are short of 
grass for their livestock.

Unusually, even the north of Portugal is dry, and forest fires have 
broken out there this winter. Cicadas are already singing at night in 
the south, and mosquitoes have appeared — traditional signs of summer.

The IPMA doesn't forecast any relief before the end of the month.

According to IPMA climatologist Vanda Pires, Portugal has witnessed an 
increase in the frequency of droughts over the past 20-30 years, with 
lower rainfall and higher temperatures.

"It's part of the context of climate change," Pires said.

And the outlook is bleak: Scientists estimate that Portugal will see a 
drop in average annual rainfall of 20% to 40% by the end of the century.
https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/13/climate-change-induced-extreme-winter-drought-devastates-crops-in-spain-and-portugal



/[  America tends to trust 60 Minutes - text and many videos below - 
this is recent modern history ] /
*60 Minutes climate change archive: What climate impacts*
BY BRIT MCC AND LESS FARMER
FEBRUARY 13, 2022
This week on 60 Minutes, Lesley Stahl reports that climate change is 
altering some of the world's prime wine-growing regions. Extreme weather 
episodes are upending the practices and economics of winemaking - and in 
some cases, changing the taste of the wine itself - in Old World and New 
World vineyards alike.

It is the broadcast's latest report to detail the impact of a warming 
planet. From flooded cities to parched rivers, melting glaciers to 
scorched forests, 60 Minutes continues to cover all the ways a changing 
climate is transforming life on Earth. Here, a look back at some of them.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-60-minutes-2022-02-13/



/[ an impressive disinformation manual developed by Joshua Machleder and 
Shannon Maguire at USAID, together with the ... contributor to 
misinformation's particular resilience to correction  ]/
*DISINFORMATION PRIMER*
100 pages
This primer presents an overview of disinformation culture to give 
readers a sense of key concepts,
terminology, select case studies, and programmatic design options. 
Disinformation is by no means new.
Although social media platforms have emerged as the most efficient 
spreaders of false information,
disinformation is also spread through analog media such as radio, 
television, and newspapers. It is,
however, the combination of traditional analog media, in concert with 
new digital technologies, that
allows information to spread faster and more broadly (even across 
borders) in unprecedented ways.
Experts have described this phenomenon as “information disorder,” a 
condition in which truth and facts
coexist in a milieu of misinformation and disinformation—conspiracy 
theories, lies, propaganda, and halftruths. They have labeled its 
ability to undermine democracy and individual autonomy “a wicked
problem,” i.e., a problem that is difficult and complex, such as poverty 
or climate change. Despite the
immensity of the challenge, there are promising ways that journalists, 
civil society organizations,
technology specialists, and governments are finding to prevent and 
counter misinformation and
disinformation. This primer presents several programmatic ideas to 
consider for standalone or
integrative approaches as part of democracy and governance-related 
programming...
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00XFKF.pdf



/[ 30 years old then, and may have read this original story in the 
NYTimes ]/
*On this day in the history of global warming February  14, 1979*

February 14, 1979: The New York Times reports: "There is a real 
possibility that some people now in their infancy will live to a time 
when the ice at the North Pole will have melted, a change that would 
cause swift and perhaps catastrophic changes in climate."

    *Climatologists Are Warned North Pole Might Melt*
    By Walter Sullivan Special to The New York Times
    Feb. 14, 1979

    GENEVA, Feb. 13 — There is a real possibility that some people now
    in their infancy will live to a time when the ice at the North Pole
    will have melted, a change that would cause swift and perhaps
    catastrophic changes in climate.

    Although many uncertainties affect the possibility, the change could
    come about because of rapid increases in fuel‐burning and a
    consequent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

    Carbon dioxide allows sunlight to enter the atmosphere and heat the
    earth, but it inhibits the escape of heat radiation into space.

    This so‐called “greenhouse effect” was discussed today by several
    specialists reporting to the World Climate Conference here, and the
    conferees were urged to assign top priority to assessing the carbon
    dioxide threat in the 20‐year world climate program now in preparation.
    In a study being presented to the conference by the International
    Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, it is projected
    that global energy use may increase from three to five times by the
    middle of the next century.

    The increase would derive chiefly from industrialization of the
    developing countries. If, as many experts expect, most of the energy
    comes from burning coal, oil and gas, the amount of carbon dioxide
    in the atmosphere may almost double by early in the next century and
    redouble by mid‐century.

    This projection was by Dr. W. Lawrence Gates, climatologist at
    Oregon State University in Corvallis. The resulting global warming
    “may amount to an environmental catastrophe,” he said.

    In another report, Dr. R. Edward Munn of the University of Toronto
    and Dr. Les ter Mechta of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
    Administration in Washington also discussed the threat.

    Another Projection

    They concluded, however, that “few, if any, scientists believe the
    carbon dioxide problem in itself justifies a curb, today, in the
    usage of fossil fuels or deforestation.” Since forests absorb that
    gas. incorporating Its carbon into wood and leaves, the clearing of
    land for agriculture is adding to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels
    Nevertheless, they said, within 5 or 10 years “governments could
    come to crossroad” in determining their energy and land‐use
    policies. The uncertainties include the extent to which oceans and
    vegetation will absorb the added carbon dioxide.

    As the oceans become warmer, they may release some of the carbon
    dioxide already stored there. It, on the other hand, the ice adrift
    on the Arctic Ocean melts, the resulting water would then take up
    some of it.

    Dr. Herman Flohn, Emeritus Professor of Meteorology at the
    University of Bonn in West Germany, said that “the most fascinating,
    and also the most controversial problem” facing climatologists was
    the possibility that the Arctic ice (apart from Greenland) would
    vanish. The Arctic Ocean has not been free of ice in almost 2.5
    million years.

    Earlier Soviet Idea

    The ice's removal by design was discussed in 1962 by a Soviet
    scientist, M. I. Bodyko, who later suggested that heating by
    atmospheric carbon dioxide could do the job. From sampling of sea
    floor sediments, Dr. Flohn pointed out, it has recently been
    possible to reconstruct the history of glaciation at both poles,
    showing that for 10 million years world climate was grossly lopsided.

    The reason was that, beginning more than 12 million years ago the
    Antarctic continent became ice covered, reaching, from five million
    to six million years ago, an accumulation 50 percent more voluminous
    than today. Yet until less than 2.5 million years ago the North Pole
    region was open ocean.

    The effect was to shift climate zones of the Northern Hemisphere
    some 400 miles north. If the Arctic ice melts, Dr. Flohn predicted,
    winter rains will become meager in the Mediterranean, Near East and
    American Southwest, and summer droughts would become frequent
    between north latitudes 45 and 50 degrees.

    Dr. B. John Mason, head of the British weather services, told of
    computer simulation of the effects of an ice‐free Arctic Ocean. A
    “rather unexpected result,” he said, was the indication that
    mid‐latitudes in the United States, Eastern Siberia and Western
    Europe would be cooled by as much as 16 degrees Fahrenheit.
    The energy study by the International Institute for Applied Systems
    Analysis examined three potential sources for the greatly increased
    demand projected for the year 2030: solar energy, fossil fuels or
    nuclear energy. In part because of the time required to develop the
    technology, it was concluded that solar energy could contribute no
    more than a quarter of the needs.

    The choice, therefore, is primarily between nuclear and fossil fuel,
    the former raising formidable problem of radioactive waste disposal
    and the latter a threat to world climate.

    The world is faced with a “Faustian bargain,” Dr. Roger Revelle,
    chairman of tomorrow morning's session, told a press conference
    today, adding, “Whatever you do is bad.” Dr. Revelle, who formerly
    headed the population center at Harvard University, noted that
    population growth had already tapered off in Europe, including
    European Russia and Japan.

    There is “real hope,” he said, that in the next century world
    population may level off at eight billion — roughly double the
    present level. But to raise the living standards of such a
    population to advanced levels will place formidable demands on
    energy production.

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60716FD3A5D12728DDDAD0994DA405B898BF1D3


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