[✔️] June 25, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Sat Jun 25 08:32:52 EDT 2022
/*June 25, 2022*/
/[ Well, what did the NYTimes just discover? ] /
*Heat Waves Around the World Push People and Nations ‘To the Edge’*
Raymond Zhong -- June 24, 2022
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/climate/early-heat-waves.html
/[ Don't worry, because lessons not learned, will be repeated ]/
*Factual climate change reporting can influence Americans positively,
but not for long*
June 24, 2022
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1107239912/climate-change-science-environment-global-warming-study-report
/[ a cynical report on issues of China - this time flooding in the first
6 mins of video ]/
*China DEVASTATED by Record-Breaking Floods | China Flood*
124,324 views Jun 24, 2022 China has been devastated by
record-breaking floods and hundreds of thousands of people have been
forced to evacuate. The Biden administration is contemplating cutting
the Trump administration's China tariffs. And your Chinese coffee maker
could be spying on you. Watch this episode of China Uncensored for that
and more of this week's China news headlines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tf0xtR7Py1Y
/[ increase chaotic destabilization from global heating ]/
*The changing face of hurricane fatalities*
Carbon monoxide poisoning, electrocution, and other indirect causes are
behind the bulk of recent U.S. hurricane deaths.
by BOB HENSON - - JUNE 23, 2022
It’s time to revisit how we see Americans falling prey to hurricanes,
according to new data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). There’s
always the risk of a storm-surge catastrophe like 2005’s Katrina, or of
Category 5 winds slamming into poorly built homes, as with Andrew in
1992. Yet most U.S. hurricane deaths in recent years can be chalked up
to factors that lie beyond these well-recognized threats.
A first-cut analysis was presented by NHC’s two top leaders at recent
meetings sponsored by the American Meteorological Society:
- -
Analyzing all fatalities caused by hurricanes between 2017 and 2021 in
the contiguous United States, Brennan, Rhome, and colleagues found that
indirect deaths outnumbered direct deaths by 299 to 271. (Had this
analysis included Puerto Rico, the indirect-death numbers would have
been overwhelmed by 2017’s Hurricane Maria. The initial death toll was
64, but the final official toll incorporated an estimate of more than
2,900 hurricane-related deaths during the six months after Maria.)
Almost 30% of the indirect deaths reported by Rhome and Brennan stemmed
from disruptions to the power grid, an ever-more-consequential factor in
an increasingly wired world. Carbon monoxide poisoning – a notorious
risk when home generators are used improperly – claimed 48 lives.
Another 39 people died from electrocution and other hazards related to
power supply.
Other indirect fatalities stemmed from a variety of causes, including
vehicle incidents (49 deaths), recovery/prep accidents (34 deaths), and
heat-related issues (38). Most of the indirect deaths appeared to be
among people 60 or older, Brennan said.
Are surge deaths receding?
Even when looking at the 271 direct deaths, the picture is far different
from the classic hurricane image of storm surge and winds claiming lives
along and near the coast. In fact, only 3% of the direct deaths (eight
people) were from storm surge – five of those caused by Category 5
Hurricane Michael in 2018 – whereas freshwater flooding accounted for
65% of the direct deaths (175 people).
It’s not that the 2017-21 period lacked surge-producing landfalls.
Category 4 Hurricane Laura pushed dangerous surge into highly vulnerable
southwest Louisiana, including Cameron Parish, where storm surge claimed
more than 300 lives during Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
NHC has upped its surge-awareness efforts dramatically in recent years.
In the mid-2010s, NHC in public statements began to emphasize potential
inundations above ground level, a more intuitive concept than the surge
values that were long provided relative to mean sea level. Experimental
mapping launched in 2014 was followed in 2017 by the first official
storm surge watch and warning products. In 2020, NHC introduced an
experimental graphic depicting peak storm surge.
For Laura, NHC addressed the threat of storm surge inundations as high
as 15-20 feet with unusually strong wording. Several of the public
advisories for Laura stated, “Unsurvivable storm surge with large and
destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State
Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and
Sabine Lakes.”
Peak inundation from Laura just east of landfall was estimated in NHC’s
tropical cyclone report to be 18 feet above ground level, with several
reports in the 12- to 18-foot range (and waves above that level) in the
vicinity of Creole and Grand Chenier.
“We took a beating at the NHC for that,” Rhome said in his presentation,
referring to the use of “unsurvivable” to describe Laura’s expected
surge. Yet the wording may still have helped save lives. Rhome cited a
2015 post-Sandy study led by Jennifer Marlon (Yale School of the
Environment) that found 22% of coastal Connecticut residents could be
categorized as “diehards” resistant to evacuation under almost any
circumstance.
“If you apply that 22% to the census information in Cameron Parish,
somewhere around 1,500 [would] have stayed, ignored the message, said
‘phooey, I don’t care’.” Instead, Rhome noted, “there wasn’t a single
storm surge fatality or a single rescue.”
Against this recent backdrop of success, NHC and emergency managers now
are looking more closely at some less-emphasized threats. From 2017 to
2021, there were 38 deaths along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts from high
surf and rip current related to tropical cyclones. This total includes
eight fatalities from 2019’s Hurricane Lorenzo, the Atlantic’s
eastern-most Category 5 on record, which remained thousands of miles
away from the U.S. East Coast during its entire lifespan.
Trees brought down by high winds from tropical storms and hurricanes,
sometimes well inland, are another risk that deserves attention. The
study period included 28 wind-related deaths, many of them linked to
tree falls.
Despite the massive damage inflicted on Louisiana by a series of
hurricane landfalls between 2017 and 2021 – including two of Louisiana’s
strongest hurricanes on record – the state reported just 10 direct
fatalities in that period. Higher direct death tolls occurred in Texas
(77), North Carolina (45), New Jersey (33), Florida (27), and New York
(20). Most of the direct deaths over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
resulted from torrential rains and subsequent flooding from the remnants
of Hurricane Ida in 2021.
In contrast, indirect deaths were more prevalent closer to landfall
locations, where lengthy recovery processes were common, including in
Florida (127), Louisiana (55), Texas (46), and North Carolina (27).
Where might climate change push hurricane fatalities?
With signs evident that human-produced greenhouse gases may be enhancing
rainfall from some tropical cyclones, and further increases expected,
the deaths from Ida (see Figure 2) could be a harbinger of more to come.
Most of Ida’s 80-plus U.S. deaths came from catastrophic flooding in the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, hundreds of miles from where the storm made
landfall, whereas carbon monoxide poisoning caused a number of the
indirect fatalities in Louisiana.
As Ida’s remnants pushed toward the U.S. East Coast as a post-tropical
cyclone, forecasters gave ample notice of the dire flood threat taking
shape. Some of the region’s first-ever flash flood emergencies were
issued by local National Weather Service offices. Newark International
Airport reported 8.41” of rain on September 1, the highest calendar-day
total ever recorded at any major reporting site in the New York metro
area, and Central Park recorded its rainiest single hour (3.15”) in more
than 150 years of recordkeeping.
“We’re seeing rainfall rates that we haven’t seen before in some of
these urban areas,” Brennan said at the AMS hurricane conference.
“That’s certainly an important piece of this going forward, to make sure
that the messaging continues downstream as the winds weaken and the
storm may not even be a tropical cyclone anymore.”
Rhome, Brennan, and colleagues say they plan to expand their initial
work to include tropical cyclones from 2013 through 2016. Despite the
inherent limits in such a short study period, there are enough signals
to merit closer looks at a broad range of hurricane and post-hurricane
threats, especially issues related to the power grid and people’s desire
to keep juice flowing. This hazard isn’t limited to hurricanes: In the
Texas cold-wave disaster of February 2021, 20 people died from carbon
monoxide poisoning, with many other dying as a result of power and
heating loss.
As indirect deaths become a more common metric, challenges arise in
making apples-to-apples comparisons with historical hurricanes. Recent
techniques for assessing indirect fatalities (such as using death
certificates to estimate “excess” deaths, as was done for Maria) seldom
are applied to long-ago storms. What’s more, death tolls among Black
hurricane victims were underestimated for many decades, including a
longstanding undercount of more than 600 in the 1928 Lake Okeechobee
disaster alone. All this makes it harder to confidently assess long-term
trends in total fatalities.
What is clear is that the pieces holding together modern society –
especially access to power – can be ripped apart at frightening speed in
a hurricane, often taking days, weeks, or even months before they can be
reassembled, leaving vulnerable populations in dangerous places. Such
threats will be accentuated to the extent that landfalling hurricanes
intensify more rapidly, become stronger on average, move more slowly,
and/or dump heavier flood-producing rains.
Jeff Masters contributed to this post.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/06/the-changing-face-of-hurricane-fatalities/
/[ it is still the CO2 emissions that is poisoning the future ] /
*Exxon Mobil is at a crossroads as climate crisis spurs clean energy
transition*
UPDATED THU, JUN 23 2022
Amanda Winograd
Exxon Mobil is one of the most consequential and profitable companies in
U.S. history. For more than a hundred years, the company’s oil and gas
have helped power the global economy.
But the Exxon Mobil of today faces the seemingly opposing priorities of
supplying the world with abundant energy and also drastically reducing
its carbon footprint to help stave off climate disaster. With
unprecedented access to company executives, workers and facilities,
David Faber explores whether Exxon Mobil is serious about taking on
global warming and how its actions match up with its words...
- -
*Disinformation accusation*
In fall 2021, Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., chairman of the House Oversight
Subcommittee on the Environment, launched an investigation into what the
big oil companies knew about climate change and when. He brought in the
CEOs of the oil majors to participate in a high-profile hearing.
There, Khanna pointed to an Exxon document from the 1970′s that said:
”[T]the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global
climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels.″
Khanna said the company — and all the other oil majors — proceeded to
sow doubt about the science in the years that followed.
“Imagine if they had come clean in the 1970′s and ’80s and said, ‘You
know what? Burning fossil fuels causes climate change and this could be
catastrophic, and so we’re going to have 1% every year diversification
investment and renewable energies.’ We’d be in a whole different place
today in the climate crisis and in our energy independence,” Khanna said.
Woods dismisses the importance of what his company may have said in the
past. “Judge us on the work that we’re doing and what we’re doing going
forward,” he said.
“We’ve got to focus on how we’re going to address this problem. We’re
doing work today and advancing very large-scale projects on those needed
technologies,” Woods said. “We’re engaged with governments all around
the world to reduce emissions, while at the same time providing reliable
and affordable energy, which is so critical to people’s standards of
living all around the world.”
*Carbon capture and sequestration*
Part of Exxon Mobil’s plan to reduce emissions is to build a carbon
capture and sequestration network. The facility — called the Houston Hub
— would take in carbon dioxide before it’s emitted from heavy industrial
facilities in the area around the city’s ship channel and store it deep
underground.
Steve Davis, a geologist and researcher affiliated with Stanford
University, worked on carbon capture projects during his 22-year tenure
with Exxon Mobil, leaving the company in 2020. He said the cost of
transporting carbon dioxide could be astronomical if the existing
pipeline system isn’t up to the task.
“For a spec-built CO2 pipeline you’re going to be looking at something
around $300,000 per inch mile — so that means for every inch of
diameter, that mile, costs $300,000 to build,” said Davis. “All of a
sudden, you’re way up in the millions to $10 million per mile for that
pipeline.”
But Exxon Mobil has faith in the technology. “The use case for carbon
capture is — we just need to get that scale going. Once we get the scale
going, great things will happen. We’ll go down this cost curve,” Ubben
said...
Brownstein agrees that carbon capture will be a necessary part of
reducing emissions, but he doesn’t see real progress on the Houston Hub.
“It is, in fact, visionary, so good for them. OK, but what’s missing
underneath that are any of the business plans, any of the engineering
plans. I mean, this is a company that does its homework,” said Brownstein.
Woods said the company has done its homework on the Houston Hub. “It’s
real. It’s happening. There’s more work to be done, no doubt about that.
But the journey of 1,000 miles starts with the first step, and we’re
taking several first steps.”
*Expansion in South America*
Off the coast of South America floats a new entrant in the global race
to secure oil. Exxon Mobil is expanding its operations in the deep
waters off Guyana and changing the landscape of the long undeveloped and
ecologically pristine nation, which has a population of less than 800,000.
Outside the capital city of Georgetown, roughly 85% of the country is
blanketed by untouched forests. For decades, this lush cover has allowed
the country to act as a carbon sink, absorbing more carbon than it emits.
But when Exxon Mobil struck oil off Guyana’s shores in 2015 and began
producing in 2019, a new economy emerged. Exxon’s local subsidiary,
Esso, now has two FPSO’s, or floating production storage and offloading
vessels, operating off Guyana, with several more slated to come online
over the next few years.
“Before the end of the decade, we anticipate that we’ll reach a million
barrels a day of production, which is a major headline for a country
this size,” said Alistair Routledge, Exxon Mobil’s lead country manager
in Guyana.
It’s a bit of a double-edged sword for a nation where most of the
population resides along the Atlantic coast. The coastline — including
the capital — sits below sea level and is prone to flooding. As seas
rise due to climate change, so too does the city’s risk of being
inundated. At the same time, the country needs funding to implement and
improve mitigation measures, such as its seawall...
“Oil and gas give us this excellent opportunity to advance the
development of Guyana and the transformation of Guyana — the human
transformation, the social transformation, the economic transformation,”
said Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali, Guyana’s president.
Already the country’s GDP jumped 43.5% from 2019 to 2020. Ali hopes that
the money coming in from oil and gas will deliver a wave of much needed
prosperity to a nation where more than 40% of its citizens live on less
than $6 a day.
But not everyone believes in developing the country’s offshore oil fields.
“I think it’s really backwards thinking to think that oil and fossil
fuels is the way to go in 2022, with all that we know. All the science
is clear,” said Sherlina Nageer, a local activist. She’s part of a group
of women suing Guyana’s Environmental Protection Agency over offshore
flaring. The women haven’t seen the offshore vessels with their own
eyes, but they believe Esso is causing environmental harm.
To see the massive FPSOs requires an hourlong helicopter flight 120
miles out over the Atlantic Ocean. The newer of Exxon’s two vessels is
called the Liza Unity. Once it’s operating at full capacity, the company
says, it will produce 220,000 barrels of oil per day, with the capacity
to store two million barrels before the oil is offloaded to tankers for
transport and sale...
Travys Townson, the Liza Unity’s asset manager, gave a tour aboard the
vessel. “Our flow lines come from here down to the sea floor, and go out
to our drill centers. Some of our flow line’s about 11 kilometers long.
The wells can then, from the sea floor, be up to seven kilometers below
the sea floor,” Townson said. It’s a massive operation, with massive
implications for this developing nation.
*It’s a chemical company, too*
While Exxon Mobil is best known as an energy company, it’s also one of
the world’s largest chemical companies. In 2021, the chemical division
brought in $7.8 billion in earnings for the company.
Exxon opened a new chemical plant in early 2022 in Corpus Christi,
Texas, as a joint venture with Saudi company SABIC. There, the company
brings in natural gas from the Permian Basin to turn into chemicals. One
of the chemicals, polyethylene, is used in making plastic. In a tour of
the company’s Baytown, Texas, lab, Exxon engineer Adriana Silva
demonstrated how she makes different types of plastic for different
purposes.
“This is one of the films that is put together with other films to make
something like your stand-up pouch. It needs to be able to stand up,
hold the liquid, and all that,” said Silva. “Something that is designed
to hold meat and cheese, you need different materials to give you more —
what we call ‘barrier’ — barrier to oxygen, barrier to moisture.”
The irony of Exxon’s plastics business is that it acts as a hedge
against the inevitable reduction in combustion engine vehicles. While
Exxon’s oil and gas business may see lower demand as consumers buy more
electric vehicles, its chemical business will see a boost.
“For an electric vehicle, the amount of plastic that you want to put
into that vehicle is much higher because you’ve got to overcome rolling
resistance,” said Karen McKee, head of Exxon Product Solutions, which
includes the chemical business. “And so in order to get that battery to
give you the longest distance between recharges, you’ve got to get the
weight down.”
But with less than 10% of the world’s discarded plastic currently being
recycled, Brownstein says that more plastic is not necessarily something
to tout.
“I think plastics will continue to play an important role in our
economy. They help lightweight vehicles. They help lightweight ships.
They help lightweight aircraft. They can and will play a role,”
Brownstein said. “The question is: Are we going to continue to live in a
world where everyone gets their Chinese food in a plastic container and
throws it out at the end of the meal? Single-use plastics? Not a
sustainable behavior.”
“While you look at addressing the plastic waste problem, you also have
to keep in mind and consideration the benefits that plastic brings to
society, the standards of living,” said Woods, the CEO. “I think about
the medical equipment, or any medical procedure you have today, the role
that plastics play in today’s health-care system.”
“So you got to kind of consider that and then address how you deal with
the plastic waste system, and how do you make sure that that plastic is
used to bring you benefit, then gets recycled, and brought back into the
product,” Woods said. “And frankly, we’re doing a lot of work in that
space. And we think, again, technology’s going to help solve that problem.”
The technology Exxon is working on is called advanced recycling, which
the company says breaks used plastic down to its molecular components.
But that project is still in development.
*Time is of the essence*
The Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 gave the world a target of limiting
global warming to less than 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius. The key factor
will be the drastic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.
“The energy transition is truly an all-hands-on-deck moment,” Brownstein
said. Fossil fuel companies such as Exxon Mobil are under pressure to
dramatically reduce emissions. At the same time, demand for their
product remains high.
Whether society moves away from fossil-fuel consumption or companies
such as Exxon Mobil find innovations to keep pumping while reducing
emissions, the problem is urgent and demands immediate action,
Brownstein said.
“We don’t have huge amounts of time,” he said. “We need to move much
quicker.”
Stream the CNBC documentary *“ExxonMobil at the Crossroads”* any
time on Peacock:
https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/asset/news/exxonmobil-at-the-crossroads/d82dea59-f353-38ee-a96c-4478bfc0ebb2
Once seen as untouchable, ExxonMobil now faces shareholder
challenges over its direction and criticism that it fostered public
uncertainty about global warming; examining if the company is ready
for the energy transition.
— Jamie Berna, Mary Hanan and Kathy Liu contributed to this article.
David Faber reporting.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/exxonmobil-at-crossroads-of-clean-energy-transition-climate-crisis.html
/[ The news archive - looking back at history of deliberate ignorance ]/
/*June 25, 2008*/
June 25, 2008: The New York Times reports: "The [George W. Bush] White
House in December refused to accept the Environmental Protection
Agency’s conclusion that greenhouse gases are pollutants that must be
controlled, telling agency officials that an e-mail message containing
the document would not be opened, senior E.P.A. officials said last week."
*White House Refused to Open Pollutants E-Mail*
By Felicity Barringer
June 25, 2008
The White House in December refused to accept the Environmental
Protection Agency’s conclusion that greenhouse gases are pollutants
that must be controlled, telling agency officials that an e-mail
message containing the document would not be opened, senior E.P.A.
officials said last week.
The document, which ended up in e-mail limbo, without official
status, was the E.P.A.’s answer to a 2007 Supreme Court ruling that
required it to determine whether greenhouse gases represent a danger
to health or the environment, the officials said.
This week, more than six months later, the E.P.A. is set to respond
to that order by releasing a watered-down version of the original
proposal that offers no conclusion. Instead, the document reviews
the legal and economic issues presented by declaring greenhouse
gases a pollutant.
Over the past five days, the officials said, the White House
successfully put pressure on the E.P.A. to eliminate large sections
of the original analysis that supported regulation, including a
finding that tough regulation of motor vehicle emissions could
produce $500 billion to $2 trillion in economic benefits over the
next 32 years. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because
they were not authorized to discuss the matter.
Both documents, as prepared by the E.P.A., “showed that the Clean
Air Act can work for certain sectors of the economy, to reduce
greenhouse gases,” one of the senior E.P.A. officials said. “That’s
not what the administration wants to show. They want to show that
the Clean Air Act can’t work.”
The Bush administration’s climate-change policies have been evolving
over the past two years. It now accepts the work of government
scientists studying global warming, such as last week’s review
forecasting more drenching rains, parching droughts and intense
hurricanes as global temperatures warm (www.climatescience.gov).
But no administration decisions have supported the regulation of
greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act or other environmental laws.
Tony Fratto, a White House spokesman, refused to comment on
discussions between the White House and the Environmental Protection
Agency. Asked about changes in the original report, Mr. Fratto said,
“It’s the E.P.A. that determines what analysis it wants to make
available” in its documents.
The new document, a road map laying out the issues involved in
regulation, is to be signed by Stephen L. Johnson, the agency’s
administrator, and published as early as Wednesday.
The derailment of the original E.P.A. report was first made known in
March by Representative Henry A. Waxman, Democrat of California,
chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. The
refusal to open the e-mail has not been made public.
In early December, the E.P.A.’s draft finding that greenhouse gases
endanger the environment used Energy Department data from 2007 to
conclude that it would be cost effective to require the nation’s
motor vehicle fleet to average 37.7 miles per gallon in 2018,
according to government officials familiar with the document.
About 10 days after the finding was left unopened by officials at
the Office of Management and Budget, Congress passed and President
Bush signed a new energy bill mandating an increase in average
fuel-economy standards to 35 miles per gallon by 2020. The day the
law was signed, the E.P.A. administrator rejected the unanimous
recommendation of his staff and denied California a waiver needed to
regulate vehicle emissions of greenhouse gases in the state, saying
the new law’s approach was preferable and climate change required
global, not regional, solutions.
California’s regulations would have imposed tougher standards.
The Transportation Department made its own fuel-economy proposals
public almost two months ago; they were based on the assumption that
gasoline would range from $2.26 per gallon in 2016 to $2.51 per
gallon in 2030, and set a maximum average standard of 35 miles per
gallon in 2020.
The White House, which did not oppose the Transportation Department
proposals, has become more outspoken on the need for a comprehensive
approach to greenhouse gases, specifically rejecting possible
controls deriving from older environmental laws.
In a speech in April, Mr. Bush called for an end to the growth of
greenhouse gases by 2025 a timetable slower than many scientists
say is required. His chairman of the Council of Environmental
Quality, James Connaughton, said a “train wreck” would result if
regulations to control greenhouse gases were authorized piecemeal
under laws like the Clean Air Act and the Endangered Species Act.
White House pressure to ignore or edit the E.P.A.’s climate-change
findings led to the resignation of one agency official earlier this
month: Jason Burnett, the associate deputy administrator. Mr.
Burnett, a political appointee with broad authority over
climate-change regulations, said in an interview that he had
resigned because “no more constructive work could be done” on the
agency’s response to the Supreme Court.
He added, “The next administration will have to face what this one
did not.”
The House Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global
Warming, led by Representative Edward J. Markey, Democrat of
Massachusetts, has been seeking the discarded E.P.A. finding on the
dangers of climate change.
After reading it last week, Mr. Markey’s office sent a letter to Mr.
Bush saying, “E.P.A. Administrator Stephen Johnson determined that
man-made global warming is unequivocal, the evidence is compelling
and robust, and the administration must act to prevent harm rather
than wait for harm to occur.”
Simultaneously, Mr. Waxman’s committee is weighing its response to
the White House’s refusal to turn over subpoenaed documents relating
to the E.P.A.’s handling of recent climate-change and air-pollution
decisions. The White House, which has turned over other material to
the committee, last week asserted a claim of executive privilege
over the remaining documents.
In an interview on Sunday, Mr. Fratto, the White House spokesman,
said the committee chairmen did not understand the legal precedent
underlying executive privilege. “There is a long legal history
supporting the principle that the president should have the candid
advice of his advisers,” Mr. Fratto said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/25/washington/25epa.html
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2008/06/26/174068/epa-email-denial/
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