[✔️] May 14, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*May 14, 2022*/

/[  examining toxic-optimism and optimism ] /
*We need optimism – but Disneyfied climate predictions are just dangerous*
George Monbiot
Techno-utopianism is popular precisely because it doesn’t challenge the 
status quo, and lets polluters off the hook
Fri 13 May 2022
In seeking to prevent environmental breakdown, what counts above all is 
not the new things we do, but the old things we stop doing. Renewable 
power, for instance, is useful in preventing climate chaos only to the 
extent that it displaces fossil fuels. Unfortunately, new technologies 
do not always lead automatically to the destruction of old ones...

    /[ this is the book he is so upset about ]/
    *An optimist’s guide to the future: the economist who believes that
    human ingenuity will save the world*
    Oded Galor’s ‘Sapiens’-like history of civilisation predicts a happy
    ending for humanity. But should we trust him?
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/apr/30/an-optimists-guide-to-the-future-the-economist-who-believes-that-human-ingenuity-will-save-the-world
    -

/[ Monbiot criticizes:]/
Instead of detailed analysis, I found handwaving and magical thinking. 
Galor claims, without providing the necessary evidence, that “the power 
of innovation accompanied by fertility decline” may allow us to avoid a 
difficult choice between economic growth and environmental protection. 
He asserts that a decline in fertility will buy us the time we need to 
develop unspecified “revolutionary technologies” that will one day 
rescue us from the climate crisis. So, rather than encouraging countries 
to adopt “clean energy technologies and environmental regulations”, we 
should instead help them further to reduce fertility.

- -

    /[ Here's a video interview with the author
    https://youtu.be/9KUJBZaVyrk ]/
    *(Live Archive) Oded Galor: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality**
    **Fundraiser*
    1,562 views  Streamed live on Mar 24, 2022  Join us to discuss with
    economist Oded Galor his grand unifying theory to explain human
    flourishing and economic inequality. In a captivating journey from
    the dawn of human existence to the present, Galor offers an
    intriguing solution to two of humanity’s great mysteries. Why are
    humans the only species to have escaped (quite recently) the
    subsistence trap, allowing us to enjoy a standard of living that
    vastly exceeds all others? And why have we progressed so unequally
    around the world, resulting in the great disparities between nations
    that exist today?

    Immense in scope and packed with interesting connections, Galor
    explains how technology, population size, and adaptation led to a
    stunning “phase change” in human history a mere 200 years ago. But
    by tracing that same journey back in time and peeling away the
    layers of influence—colonialism, political institutions, societal
    structure, culture—he also arrives at an explanation of inequality's
    ultimate cause: those ancestral populations that enjoyed fruitful
    geographical characteristics and rich diversity were set on the path
    to prosperity, while those that lacked it were disadvantaged in ways
    still influential today.

    As we face ecological crises across the globe, Galor concludes that
    gender equality, investment in education, and balancing diversity
    with social cohesion are the keys not only to our species’ thriving,
    but to its survival.
    https://youtu.be/9KUJBZaVyrk

-- 

/[Back to criticism by Monbiot]/
A few days before his book was published in the UK, the UN Office for 
Disaster Risk Reduction warned that irrational optimism and a 
misperception of risk greatly exacerbate our exposure to disaster. The 
timing was coincidental, but it stands as a direct riposte to his 
claims. Groundless optimism could be seen as one of the “cultural 
traits” that, Galor says, help determine the journey of humanity. It 
leads us not to his “even more bountiful future”, but to a different 
place altogether.

His is the latest in a line of books by professional optimists – Gates, 
Steven Pinker, Matt Ridley – who have failed to grasp the nature of 
either Earth systems or the political economy that bears upon them. 
These men are not climate deniers; they are politics deniers. They 
appear to believe that the transformations necessary to prevent systemic 
collapse can happen without political pressure or political change. 
Understandably, the media loves them. Nothing fundamental needs to 
change, we can sit and wait for technological and demographic shifts and 
everything will work out in the end. A simple story with a happy ending, 
telling power what it wants to hear, this is the Disney version of 
environmental science.

If we leave these issues to “the market” and other supposedly automatic 
processes, we can see what will happen. This week, the Guardian is 
publishing the results of its carbon bomb research. New oil and gas 
projects, if not stopped, will push global temperatures beyond the 
limits to which governments claim to have committed us, and are likely 
to drive Earth systems past their tipping points.

In other words, only a radical break from business as usual will prevent 
planetary disaster. This requires the mass mobilisation of citizens to 
demand that their governments stop these projects and keep fossil fuels 
in the ground. How do we know such protests work? Because if they 
didn’t, our government would not be planning to ban them. Politics, 
which means seeking to change the decisions made in our name, is all 
that stand between us and catastrophe. This is why I see the politics 
deniers as more dangerous now than the climate deniers.

We need optimism, and there could be some grounds for it, but it must be 
rooted in political and environmental reality. Fairytales are a threat 
to life on Earth.

George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/13/optimism-climate-predictions-techno-polluters




/[  recent WAPO news report from the beach  ] /
*He bought the house 9 months ago. Then the ocean swept it away.*
Buyers, many from out of state, continue to gobble up oceanfront real 
estate where three homes have collapsed this year along N.C.’s Outer 
Banks. Scientists and government officials say climate change is likely 
to continue to exacerbate erosion.
- -
Ralph Patricelli had grand plans for the vacation home at 24235 Ocean 
Drive in Rodanthe, on a spit of land in the middle of North Carolina’s 
Outer Banks.

He and his sister purchased the four-bedroom waterfront home in August 
for $550,000. With its airy rooms, two levels of decks and stunning 
Atlantic views, Patricelli envisioned it as an ideal spot to welcome 
friends and family after two years of an isolating pandemic. After the 
season’s last renters departed, he and his relatives had planned to host 
a Thanksgiving gathering in the home.
Instead, Patricelli never spent a night there.

A November storm affected the septic system, he said, and county 
officials soon deemed the house unfit to occupy. On Tuesday, less than 
300 days after he bought it, the house became one of two along Ocean 
Drive to collapse into the sea after days of battering from an unnamed 
coastal storm...
- -
Few people were less surprised by the latest house collapses in Rodanthe 
than David Hallac, superintendent of the Cape Hatteras National Seashore.

“What was surprising to me is that they lasted as long as they did,” he 
said in an interview Thursday. “This is a rapidly eroding area … [and] I 
don’t have any reason to believe that erosion will stop. If anything, 
the scientists I’ve spoken with and publications I’ve read suggest that 
erosion will be exacerbated by sea level rise.”...
- -
Until the house fell, Patricelli said, he and his sister were in the 
process of having it relocated farther from the waves, but they ran out 
of time.

“I knew there was some risk living near the water, but I certainly 
didn’t think I’d lose the house within eight or nine months,” he said, 
adding, “I was aware that erosion was happening there. I was not aware 
of the rate that it was happening. … We really thought we were going to 
be able to move the house and save it.”

Patricelli said he and his neighbor hired the same contractor to help 
clear the ruins of their houses...
- -
National Park Service officials said that debris from the incidents had 
spread along at least 15 miles of coastline. The agency invited the 
public to help clean up along the beach on Thursday and Friday and said 
that “additional volunteer events will be announced in the coming days.”...
- -
Patricelli said he knows some places are riskier than others: “It was a 
bet that went wrong.” But one that went wrong sooner than he imagined.

While it’s easy to question why someone would buy a house so near the 
ocean, he said, climate change is affecting people across the country 
and the world. In California, for instance, he has seen entire 
neighborhoods engulfed by wildfire, where such disasters once seemed 
unlikely.

“What I take out of all this is that climate change is a real thing for 
us all. It doesn’t matter if you live on the ocean or in a forest or on 
a river,” Patricelli said.

“I don’t know if there’s any place you are really safe from climate 
change at the moment.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/05/13/climate-change-north-carolina-house/



/[ consider investments ]/
*As California Considers Dropping Fossil Fuels from Major Pension Funds, 
New Report Calls Out ‘Misinformation’ on Costs*
CalPERS and CalSTRS, which oppose fossil fuel divestment legislation, 
have “wildly exaggerated” divestment costs, according to Fossil Free 
California’s latest report.
By Sharon Kelly - - May 13, 2022

A newly published report by Fossil Free California finds California’s 
pension fund managers are circulating divestment “misinformation” by 
exaggerating the costs involved in shedding their fossil fuel 
investments in documents prepared for state lawmakers.

California lawmakers are currently considering Senate Bill 1173 
(SB-1173), California’s Fossil Fuel Divestment Act, which would require 
the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) and the 
California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS), to stop 
investing in fossil fuels before the decade is out. The move would 
impact billions of dollars currently invested in oil, gas, or coal on 
behalf of California’s teachers, firefighters, and other public employees.

The report titled “Hyperbole in the Hearings” found that the pension 
“funds have wildly exaggerated losses from past divestments” like those 
involving tobacco, firearms, and some forms of coal. It concludes that 
CalPERS and CalSTRS estimates for costs associated with fossil fuel 
divestment are also exaggerated.

Extraordinary sums of money, invested on behalf of California’s public 
employees and teachers, are on the line. The two pension funds have 
estimated holdings of $7.4 billion and $4.1 billion respectively in 
fossil fuel investments that would need to be divested if the law went 
into effect...
- -
And of course, as the drumbeat of climate change-related catastrophes 
grows ever faster, the hazards involved for California’s pension funds 
and their members aren’t just financial.

“The data is clear: Fossil fuels are a risky financial investment, and 
they are furthering the climate crisis,” state senator Lena A. Gonzalez, 
who introduced SB-1173, wrote in an April op-ed in the Sacramento Bee. 
“From oil spills to land contamination and air pollution, it’s 
low-income Black and brown communities that suffer the most. In my 
district, Southeast Los Angeles and Long Beach suffer from high air 
pollution, public health burdens and social and economic disadvantages.”

“California cannot be a climate justice leader,” she added, “if we 
continue to invest in the companies that are polluting our environment.”
https://www.desmog.com/2022/05/13/calstrs-calpers-pension-fossil-fuel-divestment-california/



[ International Energy Agency fuel report for May 2022 ]
*Renewable Energy Market Update - May 2022*
Outlook for 2022 and 2023
Renewable electricity capacity additions broke another record in 2021 
and biofuels demand almost recovered to pre-Covid levels, despite the 
continuation of logistical challenges and increasing prices. However, 
the Russian Federation’s (hereafter, “Russia”) invasion of Ukraine is 
sending shock waves through energy and agriculture markets, resulting in 
an unprecedented global energy crisis. In many countries, governments 
are trying to shelter consumers from higher energy prices, reduce 
dependence on Russian supplies and are proposing policies to accelerate 
the transition to clean energy technologies.
Renewable energy has great potential to reduce prices and dependence on 
fossil fuels in short and long term. Although costs for new solar PV and 
wind installations have increased, reversing a decade-long cost 
reduction trend, natural gas, oil and coal prices have risen much 
faster, therefore actually further improving the competitiveness of 
renewable electricity. However, how rapidly renewables can substitute 
fossil fuels hinges on several uncertainties and will depend on many 
factors. Will renewable electricity sources defy this global energy 
crisis and continue to expand quickly despite emerging political and 
macroeconomic challenges?
At the same time, growth in biofuels demand faces significant headwinds 
from both lower transport demand growth and high biofuel prices. Will 
demand growth resume at historical rates?
In exploring the most recent market and policy developments as of April 
2022, our Renewable Energy Market Update forecasts new global renewable 
power capacity additions and biofuel demand for 2022 and 2023. It also 
discusses key uncertainties and policy-related implications that may 
affect projections for 2023 and beyond...
- -

    The current global energy crisis has added new urgency to accelerate
    clean energy transitions and, once again, highlighted the key role
    of renewable energy. For renewable electricity, pre-crisis policies
    lead to faster growth in our updated forecast. Notably, wind and
    solar PV have the potential to reduce the European Union’s power
    sector dependence on Russia's natural gas by 2023.

    At the same time, it is too early to assess the potential impact on
    our 2022 and 2023 forecast of newly announced targets following the
    Russian invasion of Ukraine, in the absence of rapid policy
    implementation.

    Annual renewable capacity additions broke a new record in 2021,
    increasing 6% to almost 295 GW, despite the continuation of
    pandemic-driven supply chain challenges, construction delays and
    record-level commodity prices for raw materials.

    Solar PV and wind costs are expected to remain higher in 2022 and
    2023 than pre-pandemic levels due to elevated commodity and freight
    prices. However, their competitiveness actually improves, due to
    much sharper increases in natural gas and coal prices.

    Renewable capacity is expected to further increase over 8% in 2022,
    reaching almost 320 GW. However, unless new policies are implemented
    rapidly, growth remains stable in 2023 because solar PV expansion
    cannot fully compensate for lower hydropower and steady year-on-year
    wind additions.

    Globally, forecast additions for 2022 and 2023 have been revised
    upwards by 8% from December last year, thanks to strong policy
    support in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”), the
    European Union and Latin America, and despite downward forecast
    revisions in the United States.

    Biofuel demand recovered in 2021 from Covid-19 lows, to near 2019
    levels, and we expect growth to expand year-on-year by 5% in 2022
    and by 3% in 2023. On the other hand, increasing feedstock prices
    and policy reaction from multiple countries slows growth in the
    short term, leading to a 20% downward revision of our previous
    biofuel demand growth forecast. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also
    putting upward pressure on an already high-price environment for
    biofuel feedstocks, in particular vegetable oils.

    While looming market uncertainties increase challenges, the new
    focus on energy security – especially in the European Union – is
    also triggering an unprecedented policy momentum towards
    accelerating energy efficiency and renewables.

    Ultimately, the forecast of renewable markets for 2023 and beyond
    will depend on whether new and stronger policies will be introduced
    and implemented in the next six months.

https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-may-2022



[ From India a shore video ]
*1.5°C Global Warming Limit could be breached by 2026 | World 
Meteorological Organization (WMO)*
May 12, 2022  The temperature target, enshrined in the Paris Agreement, 
aims to “limit global warming to well below 2°, preferably to 1.5°C, 
compared to pre-industrial levels.” 1.5°C is the difference between the 
Earth’s average temperature in the late 1800s and average temperatures 
today. Crossing this limit would cause irreversible damage to the 
planet’s fragile ecosystems and unleash harsh impacts on human, plant 
and animal life. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted 
that there is a 48% chance that global near-surface temperatures may 
exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the next 5 years! That is by 
2026.

“A single year of exceedance above 1.5°C does not mean we have breached 
the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we 
are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5°C could be exceeded for 
an extended period,” according to report lead author Leon Hermanson.
As of 2021, the world had warmed by 1.1°C compared to the pre-industrial 
period, according to the Sixth Assessment Report published by the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The probability of breaching 1.5°C was close to zero back in 2015 when 
the Paris Agreement was adopted, but it has risen steadily since then to 
50 percent now, according to the WMO. This has been attributed to the 
rising accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, caused 
entirely by human activities like the burning of fossil fuels and 
deforestation. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reached 
419 parts per million this month, according to the US National Oceanic 
and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa Observatory. The level deemed 
‘safe’ by scientists was 350 ppm, which was last observed in the late 1980s.
Additionally, arctic warming is disproportionately high. The Arctic 
temperature anomaly, compared to the 1991-2020 average, is predicted to 
be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when 
averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.” The 
impacts of Arctic warming are already being observed. The recent 
heatwave across India and Pakistan was partially attributed to the 
warming Arctic interacting with a persistent La Nina pressure pattern. 
This caused temperatures to soar unseasonably early in the year in more 
than 15 Indian states. For the rest of 2022 however, the report states 
that “Alaska, Western Canada and India are likely to be cooler”.

Down to Earth is Science and Environment fortnightly published by the 
Society for Environmental Communication, New Delhi. We publish news and 
analysis on issues that deal with sustainable development, which we scan 
through the eyes of science and environment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vD5y97BVYzE



/[The news archive - looking back at what or who is threatened ]/

/*May 14, 2008*/
After a lengthy legal battle, the George W. Bush administration finally 
declares that polar bears are to be classified as "threatened" under the 
Endangered Species Act.

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-05-15/news/36815634_1_sea-ice-kassie-siegel-climate


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