[✔️] July 26, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Greece fires, How bad is it?, Yes human caused, , Croatia, Scientists distressed, cartoon, refugee predictions

[Richard Pauli]

/*July*//*26, 2023*/

[ 30 min video]
*Thousands flee wildfires in Greece as heatwave continues – BBC News*
Jul 26, 2023  #Greece #Rhodes #BBCNews
BBC NEWS
Tens of thousands of people have been forced to leave their homes and 
abandon holidays on Greek islands including Rhodes and Corfu as fires 
spread across the region.
Temperatures are expected to rise above 44C (111F) in parts of the 
country as the heatwave continues
Two pilots battling the fires have died after their plane crashed.
They were tackling a blaze on the island of Evia, north of Athens, when 
the plane smashed into a hillside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUU939Ww2TA


/[ If you've been reading my daily summaries for the past 7 years -  you 
might know ] /
*What frightens me about the climate crisis is we don’t know how bad 
things really are*
Roger Harrabin
Tue 25 Jul 2023
As the barrage of bad news from places like Greece continues, all we can 
be certain of is there are many surprises lying ahead

Over the past few decades, climate scientists have made huge strides in 
understanding the future climate. But after recent weeks of extreme heat 
and devastating floods it’s clear that, although climate models have 
provided good information about overall rising temperatures, they can’t 
be sure what level of destruction each notch on the thermometer will bring.

Climate modelling is extremely complex, but its fundamentals rely on 
basic physics – X tonnes of emissions will bring Y increase in 
temperature, with some error bars. Supercomputers have been able to 
factor in shifts in land use that will change the reflectivity of the 
Earth’s surface. Improved temperature records helped verify their findings.

But lately, leading researchers have made a painful confession: even 
their most sophisticated models can’t yet foresee exactly how Earth 
systems will respond to those higher temperatures.

The influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says 
cranking up global temperature by half a degree will bring “much more 
extreme weather, and it can be more often, more intense, or extended in 
duration” – but exactly how much more, it can’t precisely say.

So, for instance, we’ve already had a global temperature rise of about 
1.2C: that’s in line with IPCC projections. Yet the panel couldn’t warn 
us about the appalling heat dome that’s been searing North America. I 
can’t find heat domes mentioned in the bible of climate change, the IPCC 
report. This periodic report inevitably lags behind new science and – 
under pressure from some governments and industries, as well as a desire 
not to scaremonger – its pronouncements tend to be conservative.

The models also couldn’t warn us accurately about the emergence of the 
heat trapped deep in the ocean, which soaks up 90% of the world’s excess 
warmth. In the 35 years I covered the environment for the BBC, I recall 
speculation that the warmth could stay deep for decades, perhaps 
centuries – not that some of it would suddenly burst up to the surface 
off the coast of northern Britain.
Major uncertainties remain, too, over rainfall. Good information about 
the future of monsoon rain would be a godsend for farmers who rely upon 
it – not just in India but in southern China. Unfortunately, good 
information on precipitation is proving a bit tricky to find.

The macro models also failed to project the effect of current elevated 
temperatures on ice at both poles. The former IPCC chief, Prof Bob 
Watson, told me: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so 
far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more 
severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the 
predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”

This is a massive admission. He added: “Scientists are only now starting 
to understand the response of large ice sheets in Greenland and 
Antarctica – and it is very disturbing.”

Prof Jane Francis, director of the British Antarctic Survey, told me a 
few months ago the latest science on ice melt was “truly scary”...
Watson said at current rates the world would almost certainly exceed the 
agreed maximum temperature rise of 1.5-2C. We would be lucky to get away 
with 2.5C, he said. More likely, we’re heading towards 3C.

That number positively frightens many climate scientists. But, as India 
starts stockpiling rice with a temperature rise of 1.2C, what useful 
advice can scientists offer for a 3C world? Just how bad will things be 
by then?

Should holidaymakers avoid buying homes in Greece? China is vulnerable 
to extremes – how should its economy adapt? The US has considered itself 
less vulnerable. But tell that to New Yorkers choking on wildfire smoke, 
or people in Phoenix trapped under that heat dome.

While immediate harm to people grabs the headlines, what’s even more 
destructive could be the impact of heat and humidity on food production 
for an expanding population. A global shift towards a plant-based diet 
could halve the land and water used for agriculture – and halve the 
carbon emissions – but politicians fear angering voters by recommending 
a dietary shift.

Facing all this gloom means we need imagineers as well as 
climatologists. Watson said civilisation will still exist in the future, 
but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded 
civilisation might that be? By then we may even have triggered some 
natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped 
methane in the tundra – let’s hope not...
What we do know is that so far, the effects of heating the climate are 
sooner and worse than many scientists projected (in public at least). 
This has policy implications. The world has agreed to cut emissions to 
net zero by 2050, but the UN secretary general, António Guterres, says 
rich countries should be aiming to squeeze the timetable to 2040. But 
what is the use of a net zero policy if it relies in part on planting 
trees that may shrivel in future drought or crackle in wildfire?

To make matters worse, climate heating is one thing on a list of huge 
environmental problems – including pollution of the air and water, 
destruction of wildlife habitats, overfishing, insect population 
declines, loss of birds, plastic pollution, nitrates, soil loss and more.

Watson says we don’t know how these phenomena will interact with each 
other, but he urges politicians to err on the side of caution, as the 
stakes are so very high. Every 0.1C warming matters, scientists say: 
1.5C is better than 1.6C. That in turn is less bad than 1.7C.

As the barrage of bad news continues, all we can be certain of is that 
there are many climate surprises lying ahead of us. Governments, 
companies and individuals need to urgently squeeze down emissions to 
insulate ourselves as far as possible from what we may face.

Roger Harrabin is an energy and environment analyst and a former BBC 
correspondent
*https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/25/frightens-climate-crisis-do-not-know-how-bad-wildfires-greece*
- - The archive begins in 
2016*https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/*



/[ PBS News Hour  -  video ]/
*Study finds human-caused climate change a definitive factor in brutal 
heat waves*
PBS NewsHour
Jul 25, 2023
A new analysis finds the brutal heat waves the world has experienced 
over the past month would be virtually impossible without the impact of 
human-caused climate change. It comes from an international group of 
researchers that are part of an initiative known as the World Weather 
Attribution. William Brangham discussed the assessment with 
meteorologist Bernadette Woods Placky of Climate Central.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf5hkUKuAk4



/ [ the Guardian shows flames brief video ]/
*Flames spread across Dubrovnik region of Croatia in latest wildfires*
Guardian News
Jul 25, 2023
Footage captured from residents and local firefighters shows wildfires 
burning in Croatia's Dubrovnik region, a popular area for tourists in 
the Mediterranean. The country faced strong winds and extremely high 
temperatures, causing fires to spread quickly. Croatian authorities said 
up to 16 fire engines and 95 firefighters were deployed to the area, 
while the country's airforce sent two specialised planes to help 
extinguish the flames. Parts of southern Europe, including Italy, 
Greece, Turkey and Algeria are battling wildfires after suffering from 
extreme temperatures

  Storms and heatwave kill five in northern Italy as wildfires continue 
in south
  Deadly global heatwaves undeniably result of climate crisis, 
scientists show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KpwI_TW2mU


/[ top opinions from selected experts ]/
*‘No one wants to be right about this’: climate scientists’ horror and 
exasperation as global predictions play out*
Climate experts
Mon 24 Jul 2023
As the northern hemisphere burns, experts feel deep sadness – and 
resentment – while dreading what lies ahead this Australian summer
Guardian Australia asked seven leading climate scientists to describe 
how they felt as much of the northern hemisphere is engulfed by 
blistering heatwaves, and a number of global land and ocean climate 
records are broken.

*‘I am stunned by the ferocity’*
What is playing out all over the world right now is entirely consistent 
with what scientists expect. No one wants to be right about this. But if 
I’m honest, I am stunned by the ferocity of the impacts we are currently 
experiencing. I am really dreading the devastation I know this El Niño 
will bring. As the situation deteriorates, it makes me wonder how I can 
be most helpful at a time like this. Do I keep trying to pursue my 
research career or devote even more of my time to warning the public? 
The pressure and anxiety of working through an escalating crisis is 
taking its toll on many of us.

Dr Joëlle Gergis, senior lecturer in climate science Fenner School of 
Environment and Society, associate investigator ARC Centre of Excellence 
for Climate Extremes at the Australian National University
*‘Even 1.2C of global warming isn’t safe’*
We knew by the mid-1990s that lurking in the tails of our climate model 
projections were monsters: monstrous heatwaves, catastrophic extreme 
rainfall and floods, subcontinental-scale wildfires, rapid ice sheet 
collapse raising sea level metres within a century. We knew – just like 
we know gravity – that Australia’s Great Barrier Reef could be one of 
the earliest victims of uncontained global warming.

But as today’s monstrous, deadly heatwaves overtake large parts of Asia, 
Europe and North America with temperatures the likes of which we have 
never experienced, we find even 1.2C of global warming isn’t safe.
Driving all this is the fossil fuel industry. Enabling it are political 
leaders unwilling to bring this industry under control and who promote 
policies such as offsetting and massive gas expansion that simply enable 
this industry to continue.

Bill Hare, physicist and climate scientist and chief executive of 
Climate Analytics
*‘What other choice do we have?’*
This is what climate change looks like now. And this is what climate 
change looks like in the future, though it will likely continue to get 
worse.

I don’t know how many more warnings the world needs. It’s as if the 
human race has received a terminal medical diagnosis and knows there is 
a cure, but has consciously decided not to save itself.

But those of us who understand, and who care, just have to keep trying – 
after all, what other choice do we have?

Prof Lesley Hughes, board member of the Climate Change Authority and an 
emeritus professor at Macquarie University..
*‘History will judge them very harshly’*
I still recall reading the 1985 Villach conference report, alerting the 
scientific community to the possible link between greenhouse gas 
production and climate change. In 1988, I directed the Australian 
Commission for the Future and worked with CSIRO’s Graeme Pearman on 
Greenhouse ‘88, a program to draw public attention to what the science 
was showing.

Now all the projected changes are happening, so I reflect on how much 
needless environmental damage and human suffering will result from the 
work of those politicians, business leaders and public figures who have 
prevented concerted action. History will judge them very harshly.

Prof Ian Lowe, emeritus professor in the School of Science at Griffith 
University
*‘Only time will tell’*
While we’ve been saying for decades now that this is what to expect, 
it’s still very confronting to see these climate extremes play out with 
such ferocity and with such global reach. It’s going to be Australia’s 
turn this summer, no doubt about it.
It makes me feel deeply frustrated to watch the slow pace of policy 
action – it’s bewildering to see new fossil fuel extraction projects 
still getting the go-ahead here in Australia. And with this comes deep 
resentment for those who have lobbied for ongoing fossil fuel use 
despite the clear climate physics that have been known about for almost 
half a century.

Over the last few weeks I’ve found myself wondering is this finally 
going to be the year when any doubts about the climate change crisis are 
blown away by a spate of costly climate extremes. That could be one 
benefit of 2023 being off the charts like this. Only time will tell.

Prof Matthew England, scientia professor, Australian Centre for 
Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS), University of New South Wales
*What we are living through now is just the beginning’*
I spent the last four weeks at a German research institute in the middle 
of the current heatwave. Travelling to my hometown, Berlin, on weekends 
to see my elderly and sick dad, trying to keep him cool in his city flat 
and convincing him that drinking water might be a good idea (not always 
successfully). I also bragged to colleagues and friends complaining 
about the heat, “This is nothing; try to live through a heatwave in 
Australia!” Australia is great for bragging. There are always bigger, 
more extreme and more venomous examples down under.
Was I surprised by this heatwave? Of course I was not. If anything I 
felt a mild scientific curiosity to see materialise what we have been 
forecasting for years. I also felt sad. We know that what we are living 
through now is just the beginning of much worse conditions to come. What 
this will do to our ecosystems, water availability, human health, 
infrastructure and supply chains? We know the answer. But I can also see 
signs of change. More than once, I was almost run over by a bike; I was 
not used to the busy bike lanes in Germany. I also spent many hours on 
trains and saw a real change in the landscape flying by. I travelled 
through large solar and windfarms and I listened in on conversations 
between co-travellers, which more often than not revolved around climate 
change. In one of them someone mentioned that all these sunny countries, 
like Australia, are likely 100% on renewable energy by now. I smiled 
silently; there are still some things we cannot brag about in Australia 
(yet).
Prof Katrin Meissner, director of the Climate Change Research Centre, 
University of NSW
*‘This should cause us concern’*
It is distressing to see the widespread damage caused by the current 
outbreak of extreme events in many parts of the globe. Unfortunately, 
they are not a one-off but part of a longer trend fuelled by human 
greenhouse gas emissions. So they are not unexpected.
Worryingly, it is clear that future extremes will again break records 
and cause even greater damage. In particular, this is because the damage 
in many cases is nonlinear – it rises more and more quickly for each 
increment of climate change. This should cause us concern. It rationally 
should cause us to step back and assess what is in our economic, social 
and environmental interests. The IPCC has done this and the assessment 
is clear: it is in our interest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 
rapidly, substantially and in a sustained way.

It is also in our interest to put in place large and integrated programs 
for climate adaptation to deal with the climate change impacts we can’t 
avoid. Taking action to reduce emissions and to adapt to climate change 
will give us hope. Do we really want the alternative?

Professor Mark Howden, director of the Institute for Climate, Energy and 
Disaster Solutions at the Australian National University
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/25/northern-hemisphere-heatwaves-europe-greece-italy-wildfires-extreme-weather-climate-experts



/[ Comic relief - click below ]/
*The northern hemisphere is on fire! The temperature records being 
broken are record-breaking!*
First Dog on the Moon
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/19/the-northern-hemisphere-is-on-fire-the-temperature-records-being-broken-are-record-breaking



/[ More Climate Refugees ]/
*There could be 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050....*
June 03, 2023 | 8 min read
Extreme weather, rising seas and damaged ecosystems are threatening the 
lives of millions of climate refugees. A collective effort is needed to 
solve the issue of climate migration and help the “world’s forgotten 
victims” of climate change.
By Sean McAllister

Climate migration is devastating lives. Imagine losing your home or 
livelihood due to a flood. Going hungry because of a failed harvest or 
drought. Or being forced to flee your home due to desertification, 
rising sea levels or a lack of clean drinking water.

This is the reality for millions and millions of climate refugees who 
live on the frontlines of the climate crisis. For them, climate change 
is real, and it is happening now. And as the threat of climate change 
increases globally, the number of climate migrants will grow exponentially.

According to UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, an annual average of 21.5 
million people were forcibly displaced each year by weather-related 
events – such as floods, storms, wildfires and extreme temperatures – 
between 2008 and 2016. This climate migration is expected to surge in 
coming decades with forecasts from international thinktank the IEP 
predicting that 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by 2050 
due to climate change and natural disasters.

*Who are climate refugees?*

The term “climate refugees” has been used since 1985 when UN Environment 
Programme (UNEP) expert Essam El-Hinnawi defined climate refugees – also 
called climate or environmental migrants – as people who have been 
“forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, 
because of marked environmental disruption.” But the extent of the 
definition still causes some confusion.

For instance, when two category 4 hurricanes hit Honduras, Guatemala and 
El Salvador in November 2020, people poured across the border into 
Mexico and headed towards the U.S. as torrential rains and landslides 
meant they lost their homes, livelihoods and access to clean water.

In this case, the cause and effect are clear. It is easy to see how 
unlivable conditions in their home countries caused by extreme weather 
led people to cross borders as climate refugees.

But Amar Rahman, Global Head of Climate Resilience at Zurich Resilience 
Solutions, believes the definition should apply to a much broader range 
of people. Namely, “anyone who has been impacted by disruption in their 
society that could somehow directly or indirectly be related to short- 
or long-term change in the environment.”

This means acknowledging that climate change does not just pose a threat 
by causing immediate harm to people and infrastructure, it is also a 
long-term danger that can slowly destabilize societies and economies. 
Take for instance sea-level rise. Over the past 30 years, the number of 
people living in coastal areas at high risk of rising sea levels has 
increased from 160 million to 260 million, 90 percent of whom are from 
poor developing countries and small island states.

Rahman explains the situation is made worse as climate risks are 
interconnected and can cause a domino effect. “When temperatures rise in 
a country, for instance, it can reduce water availability and water 
quality. This may increase the spread of disease and raise the 
likelihood of drought leading to crop failures that will reduce incomes 
and food supplies.”

*How conflict worsens the climate crisis*

This domino effect was felt in Syria, where the desertification of 
formerly fertile farming land between 2006 and 2010 meant crop yields 
plummeted, 800,000 people lost their income and 85 percent of the 
country’s livestock died. As people lost their livelihoods, food prices 
soared and 1.5 million rural workers moved to the city to find jobs. 
Those left behind facing poverty were an easy target for recruiters from 
the Islamic State.

These are not the only factors that led to the Syrian civil war, with 
the Arab Spring and strict restrictions from the Syrian government 
playing a key role. But societal issues caused by climate change worked 
to exacerbate existing tensions. The result was a conflict that fueled 
the world’s worst refugee crises in decades with around 6.6 million 
Syrians (roughly a quarter of the population) forced to flee their country.

The experience in Syria is sadly not unusual as there is a strong 
correlation between countries most vulnerable to climate change and 
those experiencing conflict or violence. According to the UNHCR’s 
report Global Trends in Forced Displacement 2020, 95 percent of all 
conflict displacements in 2020 occurred in countries vulnerable or 
highly vulnerable to climate change.

The good news is that international governments are starting to 
recognize climate migration as an issue that needs to be tackled. In 
November 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden released the Report on the 
Impact of Climate Change on Migration – the White House report 
represents the first time the U.S. Government has officially recognized 
a link between climate change and migration.

The report recognizes that climate migration can have significant 
implications for international security, instability, conflict and 
geopolitics. And it calls for the development of strategies that would 
allow the humane, safe, and proactive management of climate migration flows.

*How can we help climate refugees?*

One way to tackle climate migration is by creating economic opportunity 
in societies threatened by environmental change. For example, in 
Bangladesh cyclones causing floods have increased the salinity of 53 
percent of farmland. This means farmers are unable to grow their normal 
crops, which poses a deadly threat to communities who rely on 
agriculture to survive.

However, farmers have been able to adapt to the new conditions with 
support from Dutch research project Salt Solution and local NGOs who are 
teaching them to grow salt-tolerant crops, including potatoes, carrots, 
cabbages and coriander. So far 10,000 farmers have received training, 
resulting in two to three extra harvests per year.

Bangladesh is also home to more than 900,000 Rohingya refugees from 
neighboring Myanmar, many of whom live in refugee camps. To prevent 
these political refugees becoming climate refugees, the UNHRC is working 
with local partners to plant fast-growing trees in parts of refugee 
camps that are prone to landslides during monsoon storms to stabilize 
the ground....

This all requires investment. But at COP27 in November 2022, a 
breakthrough agreement was reached to provide “loss and damage” funding 
for vulnerable countries hit by climate disasters. This could help 
climate refugees internally displaced within their own country. Details 
of the new funding arrangements were not decided, but countries agreed 
to operationalize them at COP28 in Dubai. It marks an important first 
step that acknowledges the people and countries least responsible for 
climate change are being affected first and most severely.

The White House report also highlights the need for climate financing – 
from U.S. foreign aid and international financial institutions, for 
example – to support vulnerable communities to respond to, prepare for, 
and adapt to climate and migration risks. It also urges the U.S. 
government to establish an interagency working group on climate 
migration to coordinate its efforts to address the challenge. It would 
oversee the drafting of U.S. policy, strategies and budgets to help 
those impacted by climate change and migration, either domestically or 
internationally.

*Protected status for climate refugees*

But another issue is protected status. Most experts argue climate change 
refugees need access to the same protected status offered to other 
refugees, such as those who have escaped conflict.

In March 2018, the UN Human Rights Council found that many climate 
refugees do not fit the definition of “refugees” and called them “the 
world’s forgotten victims.” This means they cannot access legal 
protections to their human rights, which could protect them from threats 
like deportation.

To rectify this, governments and legal bodies must reframe conditions 
caused by climate change as a threat to human rights and recognize the 
deadly threat that climate refugees face – even if that threat is not 
always as immediate as the dangers faced by refugees fleeing war.

Even the White House report says current legal instruments to protect 
refugees “do not readily lend themselves to protect those individuals 
displaced by the impacts of climate change, especially those that 
address migration across borders.” One of its key legislative 
suggestions is for the U.S. to expand use of its migrant protection 
program known as Temporary Protected Status.

But the ultimate solution is to curtail climate change by achieving the 
goals set out in the Paris Agreement to limit temperature increase to 
well below 2 degrees Celsius (°C) and ideally to 1.5°C.

“We need to act collectively to manage this crisis,” says Rahman. “It 
requires a huge team effort starting from governments through to civil 
institutions, academia and companies. Even as individuals, we must 
carefully consider our responsibilities as consumers, voters and global 
citizens. Together we can have a big impact.”
https://www.zurich.com/en/media/magazine/2022/there-could-be-1-2-billion-climate-refugees-by-2050-here-s-what-you-need-to-know



/[ Climate Refugees ]/*
**Climate Refugees is a human rights organization that calls for the 
protection and rights of those displaced by climate change*
Through advocacy, storytelling, case studies and global monitoring, we 
shed light on the complexities of climate-induced displacement, its 
human rights implications and the climate injustice at its roots.
https://www.climate-refugees.org/

- -

[ UNHCR ]
*Climate change and disaster displacement*
Climate change is the defining crisis of our time and displacement is 
one of its most devastating consequences.
UNHCR is providing protection and assistance to many refugees and IDPs 
impacted by the climate emergency as well as helping them increase their 
resilience in a changing climate.

The past nine years were the warmest on record. Climate-fuelled crises 
are already a devastating reality, forcing people to flee and making 
life more precarious for people already uprooted from their home
The impacts of climate change are numerous and may both trigger 
displacement and worsen living conditions or hamper return for those who 
have already been displaced. Limited natural resources, such as drinking 
water, are becoming even scarcer in many parts of the world that host 
refugees. Crops and livestock struggle to survive where conditions 
become too hot and dry, or too cold and wet, threatening livelihoods. In 
such conditions, climate change can act as a threat multiplier, 
exacerbating existing tensions and adding to the potential for conflicts.

Hazards resulting from the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme 
weather events, such as abnormally heavy rainfall, prolonged droughts, 
desertification, environmental degradation, or sea-level rise and 
cyclones are already causing an average of more than 20 million people 
to leave their homes and move to other areas in their countries each year.

Some people are forced to cross borders in the context of climate change 
and disasters and may in some circumstances be in need of international 
protection. Refugee and human rights law therefore have an important 
role to play in this area.

The Global Compact on Refugees, affirmed by an overwhelming majority in 
the UN General Assembly in December 2018, directly addresses this 
growing concern. It recognizes that “climate, environmental degradation 
and disasters increasingly interact with the drivers of refugee movements”.

We need to invest now in preparedness to mitigate future protection 
needs and prevent further climate caused displacement. Waiting for 
disaster to strike is not an option...
https://www.unhcr.org/uk/what-we-do/how-we-work/environment-disasters-and-climate-change/climate-change-and-disaster



/[The news archive - looking back at political statements ]/
/*July 26, 2004 */
July 26, 2004:
• At the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Massachusetts, former 
Vice President Al Gore states:

    "And I also ask tonight for the consideration and the help of those
    who supported a third party candidate in 2000. I urge you to ask
    yourselves this question: Do you still believe that there was no
    difference between the candidates? Are you troubled by the erosion
    of America’s most basic civil liberties? Are you worried that our
    environmental laws are being weakened and dismantled to allow vast
    increases in pollution that are contributing to a global climate
    crisis? No matter how you voted in the last election, these are
    profound problems that all voters must take into account this
    November 2."

http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/convention2004/algore2004dnc.htm


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