[✔️] March 28, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Trees get a calendar leaf, prodding the point of no return, 3 degrees C, tornadoes. Blue Ocean event, Al Franken humor

[Richard Pauli]

/*March 28, 2023*/

/[  BBC says it in a headline  ] /
//*Climate change: trees grow for extra month as planet warms - study*
Global warming is changing the way trees grow, new research suggests.
Researchers studying hardwoods in northwest Ohio say a century of 
warming has extended their annual growing season by a month on average.
- -
"Things are not the way they used to be - they are profoundly 
different," said Prof Calinger-Yoak. "An entire month of growing season 
extension is huge when we're talking about a pretty short period of time 
for those changes to be expressed."

Species responded to warmer temperatures in different ways - most kept 
their leaf colour longer into Autumn but some budded early.

The implications of the longer growing period are unknown.

Trees are vital in sucking planet-warming carbon dioxide out of the 
atmosphere, and the researchers said a longer growing period probably 
meant they did more of that. But they warned that higher, fluctuating 
temperatures may also stress trees in ways so far unknown.

Species reacted differently to higher temperatures. Prof Calinger-Yoak 
said that suggested more species-specific research was needed with 
regard to the role of tree-planting in limiting climate change.

"When we're thinking about a relatively low-cost mitigation strategy, 
planting a whole bunch of trees that suck CO2 out of the air is a really 
good strategy, but to promote those activities you also have to have 
evidence of the level of benefit you'd derive from it," she said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65037659



/[ "It's not nice to taunt Mother Nature" ]/
*The Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a melting point of no return, says 
new study*
by American Geophysical Union
MARCH 27, 2023
The Greenland Ice Sheet covers 1.7 million square kilometers (660,200 
square miles) in the Arctic. If it melts entirely, global sea level 
would rise about 7 meters (23 feet), but scientists aren't sure how 
quickly the ice sheet could melt. Modeling tipping points, which are 
critical thresholds where a system behavior irreversibly changes, helps 
researchers find out when that melt might occur.
  - -
As the ice sheet melts, its surface will be at ever-lower elevations, 
exposed to warmer air temperatures. Warmer air temperatures accelerate 
melt, making it drop and warm further. Global air temperatures have to 
remain elevated for hundreds of years or even longer for this feedback 
loop to become effective; a quick blip of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees 
Fahrenheit) wouldn't trigger it, Höning said. But once the ice crosses 
the threshold, it would inevitably continue to melt. Even if atmospheric 
carbon dioxide were reduced to pre-industrial levels, it wouldn't be 
enough to allow the ice sheet to regrow substantially.

"We cannot continue carbon emissions at the same rate for much longer 
without risking crossing the tipping points," Höning said. "Most of the 
ice sheet melting won't occur in the next decade, but it won't be too 
long before we will not be able to work against it anymore."
https://phys.org/news/2023-03-greenland-ice-sheet.html

/
/

/
/

/[ sensitivity to heating - from 2018  video ]/
*Bill McKibben: Climate Sensitivity of the Third Kind*
greenman3610
Mar 27, 2023
Clip from my interview with Bill McKibben, Narsarsuaq, ,Greenland, 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzpLCwUUDQk

/- -/

/[ answer from the Economist - 3 degrees video ]/
*What will a 3 degree world look like?
*The Economist
2,946,548 views  Oct 30, 2021
If global temperatures rise three degrees Celsius above pre-industrial 
levels, the results would be catastrophic. It’s an entirely plausible 
scenario, and this film shows you what it would look like.

00:00 - What will a 3°C world look like?
00:57 - Climate change is already having devastating effects
02:58 - How climate modelling works
04:06 - Nowhere is safe from global warming
05:20 - The impact of prolonged droughts
08:24 - Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding
10:27 - Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures
12:51 - Increased migration and conflict
14:26 - Adaptation and mitigation are crucial
- -
Read our briefing about a three degree world: https://econ.st/3nJiXYS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uynhvHZUOOo
//

/
/

/
/

/[ More heat, any more questions? ]/
*The exact link between tornadoes and climate change is hard to draw. 
Here's why*
March 27, 2023
By  Rachel Treisman
Rural communities in western Mississippi are surveying and cleaning up 
the damage after an unusual and powerful tornado tore through the area 
Friday night...
- -
The National Weather Service says it spanned roughly 170 miles and had a 
path of 59.4 miles, an unusually long distance compared to what it calls 
a typical tornado path of 1-2 miles.
- -
"This is one of the more rare tornadoes that we've seen in recorded 
Mississippi history given its longevity and strength over a period of 
time," National Weather Service meteorologist Lance Perrilloux told NPR.
- -
Years of research have shown how climate change intensifies rain storms, 
heat waves and hurricanes, as NPR has reported.

The same can't exactly be said for tornadoes, however.

Scientists know that warm weather is a key ingredient in tornadoes and 
that climate change is altering the environment in which these kinds of 
storms form. But they can't directly connect those dots, as the research 
into the link between climate and tornadoes still lags behind that of 
other extreme weather events such as hurricanes and wildfire.

That's at least in part due to a lack of data — even though the U.S. 
leads the world in tornadoes, averaging about 1,200 a year.

Less than 10% of severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes, which makes it 
tricky to draw firm conclusions about the processes leading up to them 
and how they might be influenced by climate change, Harold Brooks, a 
tornado scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory, told The 
Associated Press in 2021.

Other factors that make that climate change attribution difficult 
include the quality of the observational record and the ability of 
models to simulate certain weather events. The National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration says that's the case with tornadoes.

"The observational record is not consistent and relatively short, the 
models remain inconclusive as to replicating tornado activity, and our 
understanding of how global warming and climate change will influence 
the different atmospheric processes that produce tornadoes (wind shear, 
for example) is more limited," reads a page on its website.

While scientists may not be able to conclusively connect tornado 
frequency or intensity to human-caused climate change, they say there 
are signs pointing in that direction.

*Here's what they do know: *What tornadoes are and when they occur
NOAA defines tornadoes as narrow, violently rotating columns of air that 
extend from a thunderstorm to the ground (while the wind part is 
invisible, tornadoes can form condensation funnels of water droplets, 
dust and debris). They can be among the most violent of natural 
disasters, ripping homes apart, tearing through infrastructure and 
sending debris flying.

Tornadoes can occur in any part of the U.S. at any time of year.

They have historically been associated with the Great Plains, though 
experts say the idea of a so-called "Tornado Alley" can be misleading 
since the tornado threat is a bit of a moving target. It shifts from the 
Southeast in the cooler months of the year, toward the southern and 
central Plains in May and June, and the northern Plains and Midwest 
during early summer.

When people talk about "tornado season," they are usually referring to 
the time of year when the U.S. sees the most tornadoes — which peaks in 
May and June in the southern Plains and later in the northern Plains and 
upper Midwest.

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes tend to start ramping up in the month 
of March (usually doubling from February), with the threat most 
concentrated in Southern states. That's the result of the clash between 
winter and spring weather patterns, with a still-strong jet stream and 
warmer air moving northward.
  - -
Recent Marches have been especially active, the Weather Channel notes: 
There were 236 recorded tornadoes in March 2022, the most in that month 
since 1950.
- -
The storm system started earlier in the week in California, where it 
spawned the strongest tornado to hit Los Angeles County since 1983. It 
then continued its journey east, triggering deadly floods in Arizona and 
the central swath of the country and gaining strength along the way.

Many states saw record-high temperatures during this period, and the 
Washington Post explains that the warm and humid air — exacerbated by 
unusually high sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico — helped 
energize the storm.

Warm winds from the south fueled the storm at ground level, it adds, 
while westerly winds of the jet stream generated extreme amounts of 
"wind shear" — the change in wind speed and/or direction with height 
that can lead to the development of tornadoes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says as few 
as 20% of all supercell thunderstorms produce tornadoes, but that those 
are the most common — and often the most dangerous — kind of twister.

NOAA compares supercells to cancer cells in a living organism, because 
"the rotation of their updraft enables them to overcome the 
self-limiting mechanisms that bring demise to regular storms," lasting 
for "an appreciable length of time" and causing damage all the while.

Storm chasers and meteorologists have described Friday's event as a 
"wedge tornado," a slang term meaning its funnel is at least as wide on 
the ground as it is tall.

Its maximum path width was 3/4 mile, the NWS says, which might help 
explain the extent of the damage...
- -
*The U.S. will likely see more tornadoes beyond their typical time and 
place*
Experts say climate change is impacting the conditions in which 
tornadoes form and could lead to changes in when and where the U.S. sees 
them.
- -
Brooks, of NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, said the U.S. is 
likely to see more tornadoes in the winter (and fewer in the summer) as 
national temperatures rise above the long-term average.

And Gensini told Axios that projections show an increase in major 
outbreaks in the mid-South and Southeast. He also compared 
tornado-climate change attribution to the steroids era of baseball, as 
Axios put it: "Pinning an individual home run on steroid use is 
difficult, he said, but in the aggregate the trends are evident."
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/27/1166209327/tornadoes-climate-change-mississippi-alabama




/[  An Arctic Blue Ocean event is when there is no more ice -- all 
water.  - video ]/
*Approaching the Arctic Blue Ocean Event: Expected Locations of the Last 
Chunks of Remaining Sea Ice*
Paul Beckwith
969 views  Mar 27, 2023
Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and 
videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change.

A new peer reviewed scientific paper was just published online (open 
source) that examines the amount of Arctic Sea Ice in the Lincoln Sea.

The Lincoln Sea is just northward of the entrance to the Nares Strait, 
between Canada’s Ellesmere Island and Greenland’s Northeast coastline. 
The Arctic Oceans Beaufort Gyre pushed Arctic sea ice into the 
TransArctic Drift ocean currents which then pushes it down to the 
Canadian Archipelago and the northern coast of Greenland. As a result, 
the sea ice is thickest in the southern part of the Lincoln Sea. Thus, 
when there is no sea ice in the Lincoln Sea, there is essentially no sea 
ice in the Arctic Ocean.

How do we know how much ice there was in the Lincoln Sea at time periods 
long ago? The new paper looks for chemicals from algae in the marine 
sediments on the sea floor of the Lincoln Sea from two sediment cores 
drilled out in an Arctic expedition back in 2019. At times where there 
is perennial (year round) ice cover in the Lincoln Sea, there is very 
little algae so very little of these sterol chemicals from the algae 
become trapped in the deposited sediments. However, when the ocean in 
the Lincoln Sea is devoid of sea ice there is lots of algae growth, and 
therefore lots of algae’s sterols deposited in the sediment. Thus, by 
analyzing the sterol content in the various layers of the cylindrical 
core of sediment drilled from the ocean floor, and dating the layers, we 
can tell the time periods there was no ice in the Lincoln Sea and 
therefore the Arctic.

The results are that the Lincoln Sea was ice free in the summers from 
about 10,300 years ago until about 9,700 years ago, at the time when the 
Earths tilt was larger than today, so there was more seasonal variation 
than today, meaning warmer summers and colder winters. So back then, 
there was very little summer Arctic sea ice, if any at all.

Questions:
1)What does this mean for today?
2)What about my theory that the last remnants of Arctic sea ice will be 
circling the North Pole?

Answers:
1) Today, the Lincoln Sea ice is still perennial, but is rapidly 
reducing towards vanishing in the summers, at least enough to send in a 
ship and take cores into the ocean floor. Thus, we are very near a 
Blue-Ocean Event; one year we have Arctic Sea-Ice and the next year we 
don’t in some September.

2) It is hard to get core data from the North Pole since currents are 
fast and the sediment deposition rate is thus extremely slow. The data 
that has been obtained is in conflict, so no conclusion yet. I still 
think some sea-ice will form at the North-Pole (last place possible) 
when it can’t elsewhere in the Arctic Ocean, but will some of it stay or 
will it all drift to the Lincoln Sea. It’s not clear yet; I thing we 
will see what happens with our own eyes (satellite eyes) in a few years!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuZFH0vdx1U

- -

/[ From the Journal nature - Communications earth & environment ]/
Published: 20 March 2023
*Seasonal sea-ice in the Arctic’s last ice area during the Early Holocene*
Henrieka Detlef, Matt O’Regan, Christian Stranne, Mads Mørk Jensen, 
Marianne Glasius, Thomas M. Cronin, Martin Jakobsson & Christof Pearce
Communications Earth & Environment volume 4, Article number: 86 (2023) 
Cite this article
*Abstract*

    According to climate models, the Lincoln Sea, bordering northern
    Greenland and Canada, will be the final stronghold of perennial
    Arctic sea-ice in a warming climate. However, recent observations of
    prolonged periods of open water raise concerns regarding its
    long-term stability. Modelling studies suggest a transition from
    perennial to seasonal sea-ice during the Early Holocene, a period of
    elevated global temperatures around 10,000 years ago. Here we show
    marine proxy evidence for the disappearance of perennial sea-ice in
    the southern Lincoln Sea during the Early Holocene, which suggests a
    widespread transition to seasonal sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean.
    Seasonal sea-ice conditions were tightly coupled to regional
    atmospheric temperatures. In light of anthropogenic warming and
    Arctic amplification our results suggest an imminent transition to
    seasonal sea-ice in the southern Lincoln Sea, even if the global
    temperature rise is kept below a threshold of 2 °C compared to
    pre-industrial (1850–1900).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00720-w


*
*

/[ Al Franken proves he is far more influential after leaving the 
Senate... - humor video//https://youtu.be/K6sy3l68WUA?t=310//]/
*U.N. Releases Catastrophic Climate Report ... | The Daily Show*
The Daily Show
643,894 views  Mar 21, 2023  #DailyShow #Comedy
Al Franken tackles the biggest stories of the day, including New York's 
new slogan, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping shaking hands, France's older 
retirement age, the Tucker Carlson producer who's suing Fox News, and 
the U.N.'s latest catastrophic climate change report. #DailyShow #Comedy



/[ The news archive - perhaps looking back at a time when karma started  ]/
/*March 28, 2001*/
March 28, 2001: President George W. Bush says his administration will 
not honor the Kyoto Protocol.
http://archives.nbclearn.com/portal/site/k-12/flatview?cuecard=238


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