[✔️] October 8, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Children displaced, UNICEF, Beckwith-Hansen, Disinfo-Facebook, Nuke snark, Man O-War, 1979 People magazine,
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Sun Oct 8 09:50:15 EDT 2023
/*October 8*//*, 2023*/
/[ from AP news ]/
*Millions of children are displaced due to extreme weather events.
Climate change will make it worse
* BY ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL AND CAMILLE FASSETT
October 5, 2023
Storms, floods, fires and other extreme weather events led to more than
43 million displacements involving children between 2016 and 2021,
according to a United Nations report.
More than 113 million displacements of children will occur in the next
three decades, estimated the UNICEF report released Friday, which took
into account risks from flooding rivers, cyclonic winds and floods that
follow a storm.
Some children, like 10-year-old Shukri Mohamed Ibrahim, are already on
the move. Her family left their home in Somalia after dawn prayers on a
Saturday morning five months ago.
The miseries of long, drawn-out disasters like droughts are often
underreported. Children had to leave their homes at least 1.3 million
times because of drought in the years covered by the report — more than
half of them in Somalia — but this is likely an undercount, the report
said. Unlike during floods or storms, there are no pre-emptive
evacuations during a drought.
Worldwide, climate change has already left millions homeless. Rising
seas are eating away at coastlines; storms are battering megacities and
drought is exacerbating conflict. But while catastrophes intensify, the
world has yet to recognize climate migrants and find formal ways of
protecting them.
“The reality is that far more children are going to be impacted in (the)
future, as the impacts of climate change continue to intensify,” said
Laura Healy, a migration specialist at UNICEF and one of the report’s
authors.
Floods displaced children more than 19 million times in places like
India and China. Wildfires impacted children 810,000 times in the U.S.
and Canada.
Data tracking migrations because of weather extremes typically don’t
differentiate between children and adults. UNICEF worked with a
Geneva-based nonprofit, the International Displacement Monitoring
Center, to map where kids were most impacted.
- -
In estimating future risks, the report did not include wildfires and
drought, or potential mitigation measures. It said vital services like
education and health care need to become “shock-responsive, portable and
inclusive,” to help children and their families better cope with
disasters. This would mean considering children’s needs at different
stages, from ensuring they have opportunities to study, that they can
stay with their families and that eventually they can find work.
“We have the tools. We have the knowledge. But we’re just not working
fast enough,” Healy said.
https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-child-displacement-extreme-weather-87e933b1ee0d81f9345daa801f311ea6
- -
/[ UN - UNICEF ]/
*Children displaced in a changing climate*
Preparing for a future that’s already underway.
Millions of children are being driven from their homes by weather-
related events, exacerbated by climate change. While the link between
climate change and displacement is complex, it’s clearer than ever that
the climate is shifting patterns of displacement.
Displacement – whether short-lived or protracted – can multiply climate-
related risks for children and their families. In the aftermath of a
disaster, children may become separated from their parents or
caregivers, amplifying the risks of exploitation, child trafficking, and
abuse. Displacement can disrupt access to education and healthcare,
exposing children to malnutrition, disease, and inadequate immunization.
Yet until now, children displaced by weather-related events have been
statistically invisible. Existing displacement data are rarely
disaggregated by age, and factors such as rapid urbanization, fragility
and conflict can mean that children on the move are even more likely to
slip through the cracks.
‘Children displaced in a changing climate: Preparing for a future
already underway’ analyses the most common weather-related hazards that
lead to the largest number of displacements: floods, storms, droughts
and wildfires. The report notes that there were 43.1 million internal
displacements of children linked to weather-related disasters over a
six-year period – the equivalent to approximately 20,000 child
displacements per day. Almost all – 95 per cent – of recorded child
displacements were driven by floods and storms.
To improve outcomes for children and young people at risk of future
displacement, the report calls on governments, donors, development
partners and private sector to take the following actions:
Protect children and young people from the impacts of climate change and
displacement by ensuring child-critical services are shock-responsive,
portable and inclusive, including for children already uprooted.
Prepare children and young people to live in a climate changed world by
improving their adaptive capacities, resilience and enabling their
participation.
Prioritize children and young people – including those already uprooted
from their homes – in climate, humanitarian and development policy,
action and investments.
https://www.unicef.org/reports/children-displaced-changing-climate
- -
/[ UNICEF report ]/
*Weather-related disasters led to 43.1 million displacements of children
over six years - UNICEF*
River floods alone projected to displace almost 96 million children over
next 30 years, new analysis shows
06 October 2023
NEW YORK, 6 October 2023 – Weather-related disasters caused 43.1 million
internal displacements of children in 44 countries over a six-year
period – or approximately 20,000 child displacements a day - according
to a new UNICEF analysis released today.
Children Displaced in a Changing Climate is the first global analysis of
the number of children driven from their homes between 2016 and 2021 due
to floods, storms, droughts and wildfires, and looks at projections for
the next 30 years.
According to the analysis, China and the Philippines are among the
countries that recorded the highest absolute numbers of child
displacements, due to their exposure to extreme weather, large child
populations and progress made on early warning and evacuation
capacities. However, relative to the size of the child population,
children living in small island states, such as Dominica and Vanuatu,
were most affected by storms, while children in Somalia and South Sudan
were most affected by floods.
“It is terrifying for any child when a ferocious wildfire, storm or
flood barrels into their community,” said UNICEF Executive Director
Catherine Russell. “For those who are forced to flee, the fear and
impact can be especially devastating, with worry of whether they will
return home, resume school, or be forced to move again. Moving may have
saved their lives, but it’s also very disruptive. As the impacts of
climate change escalate, so too will climate-driven movement. We have
the tools and knowledge to respond to this escalating challenge for
children, but we are acting far too slowly. We need to strengthen
efforts to prepare communities, protect children at risk of
displacement, and support those already uprooted.”
Floods and storms accounted for 40.9 million - or 95 per cent - of
recorded child displacements between 2016 and 2021, due in part to
better reporting and more pre-emptive evacuations. Meanwhile, droughts
triggered more than 1.3 million internal displacements of children -
with Somalia again among the most affected, while wildfires triggered
810,000 child displacements, with more than a third occurring in 2020
alone. Canada, Israel and the United States recorded the most.
Decisions to move can be forced and abrupt in the face of disaster, or
as the result of pre-emptive evacuation, where lives may be saved but
many children still face the dangers and challenges that come with being
uprooted from their homes, often for extended periods.
Children are especially at risk of displacement in countries already
grappling with overlapping crises, such as conflict and poverty, where
local capacities to cope with any additional displacements of children
are strained...
- -
As leaders prepare to meet at the COP28 Climate Change Summit in Dubai
in November, UNICEF urges governments, donors, development partners, and
the private sector to take the following actions to protect children and
young people at risk of future displacement and prepare them and their
communities:
*PROTECT *children and young people from the impacts of climate
change-exacerbated disasters and displacement by ensuring that
child-critical services – including education, health, nutrition,
social protection and child protection services – are
shock-responsive, portable and inclusive, including for those
already uprooted from their homes.
*PREPARE *children and young people to live in a climate-changed
world by improving their adaptive capacity and resilience, and
enabling their participation in finding inclusive solutions.
*PRIORITIZE* children and young people – including those already
uprooted from their homes – in disaster and climate action and
finance, humanitarian and development policy, and investments to
prepare for a future already happening.
https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/weather-related-disasters-led-431-million-displacements-children-over-six-years
/[ Beckwith explains the latest Hansen paper ]/
*Acceleration of Global Temperature Rise and Climate Mayhem Expected
over the Next Year*
Paul Beckwith
Oct 2, 2023
James Hansen is arguably the giant of all climate scientists. I was very
fortunate to meet him a few years ago at a COP climate conference, and
chat with him on a CEF (Climate Emergency Forum) video.
He has just published a new paper on updates on the climate system:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailing...
About a month ago, I covered his August 14th paper, and this video is an
update on his newest stuff.
This paper is vitally important in giving us a clear picture of what we
can expect in the next few years.
A confluence of factors is driving up global average temperatures of the
atmosphere and oceans and we can expect warming and climate extremes to
notch up to much higher record setting levels.
We ain’t seen nothing yet. We are only getting a taste this summer of
what is to come in the next year or two.
1) Average global temperatures trended upwards at 0.18 degrees C per
decade before 2010. With less aerosol forcing, since 2010 to now it has
risen between 0.27 and 0.36 degrees C (this was all in the previous
paper “Global Warming in the Pipeline”)
2) We can expect an additional rise from El Niño; it is really just
getting started. A super El Niño will easily drive global average
temperatures well above 1.5 C perhaps later this year but highly
probably for the first six months of 2024. El Niño is much more
powerfully warming the planet in the year after it starts, so in 2024
since it started this year.
3) Solar irradiation is peaking soon, and basically adds a forcing of
+0.1 W per m**2 on top of everything else.
4) We are missing a vast area of sea ice around Antarctica, but
Antarctica is still in its winter darkness. Come Fall and Winter for
Northern Hemisphere dwellers, the sun rises in the Southern Hemisphere
and the huge extra area of dark open ocean around Antarctica will absorb
huge amounts of extra sunlight.
5) The Earth Energy Imbalance was 0.6 W or m**2 ten years ago (400,000
Hiroshima bombs a day) but is now 1.22 W per m**2 (more than double;
namely 800,000 Hiroshima bombs per day); the most recent value is a
staggering 1.46 W per m**2.
6) By May of 2024, it looks increasing likely (almost certain) that the
12 month average global temperature will exceed 1.5C, with the monthly
value close to 1.8C or maybe even as high as 2C.
It is already rapidly rising and the additional effects listed above
will greatly accelerate the rise.
As a result of this unfortunate confluence of events, we can expect the
global climate turmoil in the last few months to substantially worsen.
When it does, expect the media and mainstream scientists and politicians
to espouse their excuses and concerns, but none of that matters if they
do not slash fossil fuels.
Last month Lahaina in Hawaii was incinerated and many people are still
missing (I think they have returned to ashes and dust), and also 90-95%
of the town of Enterprise in Canada’s Northwest Territories was
incinerated. Global floods are ongoing (look at the inundation of NYC a
few days ago), heatwaves are killing countless people, and global
governments just don’t give a damn, since they are subsidizing fossil
fuels at record high levels of 7.1 Trillion Dollars per year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNaA7WrQnTE
- -
/[ original paper ]/
*Global Warming is Accelerating. Why? Will We Fly Blind?*
14 September 2023
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, and Leon Simons
*Abstract. *
Global temperature in the current El Nino exceeds temperature in the
prior (2015-16) El
Nino by more than the expected warming (0.14°C in 8 years) for the
global warming rate since
1970 (0.18°C/decade). Proximate cause of accelerated warming is an
increase of Earth’s Energy
Imbalance (EEI), but what caused that? Indirect evidence points to a
decline in the cooling effect of
human-made aerosols. Failure to measure aerosol climate forcing is
partly compensated by precise
monitoring of EEI details. However, there are no adequate plans to
continue even this vital EEI
monitoring – which will become even more important as humanity
realizes its predicament and the
fact that we must cool the planet to avoid disastrous consequences
and restore a bright future for
young people – let alone plans for adequate aerosol monitoring.
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/FlyingBlind.14September2023.pdf
/[ Disinformation understanding -- Facebook ]/
*Facebook is WORSE than You Think: Whistleblower Reveals All | Frances
Haugen x Rich Roll
*Rich Roll
Sep 7, 2023 The Rich Roll Podcast
Rich sits down with 2021 Facebook Files whistleblower Frances Haugen to
talk about transparency and accountability in Big Tech, why algorithms
prioritize extreme content,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYhSUdphPvQ
/[ Opinion - snark to the nuclear industry ]/
*Nuclear power has long stifled renewables. Now it needs to go extinct*
By Linda Pentz Gunter
We needn’t have had Fukushima at all, now 12 years old and still
emitting radiation, still not “cleaned up”, still responsible for
forbidden zones where no one can live, play, work, grow crops. We
needn’t have had Chornobyl either, or Three Mile Island, or Church Rock.
We needn’t have almost lost Detroit.
We could have avoided climate change as well. Not just by responding
promptly to the early recognition of the damage fossil fuels were doing.
But also by heeding one sensible plan that, if it had been acted upon,
would have removed the nuclear power elephant from the energy solutions
room and possibly also saved us from plunging into the climate
catastrophe abyss in which we now find ourselves.
Right from the beginning, nuclear power made a significant contribution
to the climate crisis we now face.
And unfortunately, as is often the case, the United States played the
starring role.
Nuclear power was never the answer to climate change and it’s only
pretending to be now as a desperate, last-ditch survival tactic.
Renewables were always the answer and we’ve known this for decades.
Since the 1950s, nuclear power has been on the table for one reason only
and it has nothing to do with reducing carbon footprints or sound
science or strong economics.
What the nuclear power choice has always been about is the misguided
caché given to nuclear weapons, to which nuclear power is inextricably
linked. That caché prevented an early, rapid and widespread
implementation of renewable energy. And that, in turn, has resulted in
the climate crisis we have now.
There is growing recognition and acceptance of the role fossil fuels
have played in our downfall and the imperative to eliminate their use.
But there is little to no recognition of the impediment nuclear power
has always been —and continues to be —when it comes to prioritizing
renewable energy, along with energy efficiency and conservation.
Studies today clearly show that the choice of nuclear power over
renewable energy impedes progress on carbon reductions, and of course
costs far more. But nuclear power was always in the way. Arguably,
nuclear power is far more a contributor to climate change than it could
ever be a solution to it. How can that be so? Surely, using nuclear
power all these years has spared us carbon emissions?
That would be true if the competition had been between nuclear and coal
or nuclear and gas. But when nuclear power got started in the US, it was
part of a very different agenda and what it supplanted was solar energy.
On July 2, 1952, President Harry Truman sent a report to Congress that
had been completed a month earlier. It was called the President’s
Materials Policy Commission “Resources for Freedom”. The Commission was
chaired by William S. Paley, so it is commonly referred to as the Paley
Commission.
Chapter 15 was entitled “The Possibilities of Solar Energy”. It went
through many technical and economic scenarios, showing great potential
and also flagging some stumbling blocks, most of which have since been
solved. Here is what it concluded. In 1952.
“If we are to avoid the risk of seriously increased real unit costs of
energy in the United States, then new low-cost sources should be made
ready to pick up some of the load by 1975.”
Even at that early date, the Paley Commission’s authors recognized the
abundance offered by solar energy, observing that, “the United States
supply of solar energy is about 1,500 times the present requirement.”
But here is what they were not looking to for when it came to a “new
low-cost source” of energy.
The Commission concluded that: “Nuclear fuels, for various technical
reasons, are unlikely ever to bear more than about one-fifth of the
load. We must look to solar energy.”
“We must look to solar energy.” Those words must surely give one pause.
And then the big what-might-have-been:
“Efforts made to date to harness solar energy economically are
infinitesimal. It is time for aggressive research in the whole field of
solar energy — an effort in which the United States could make an
immense contribution to the welfare of the free world.” [my emphases]
Instead, Truman’s presidency ended in January 1953, and the next
president, Dwight Eisenhower, effectively tossed the Paley Commission
report in the bin. It was replaced with the now infamous Atoms for
Peace. Which of course was a lie. Because it was never about atoms for
peace. It was really about atoms for war.
The arguments for using nuclear power to address climate change are
specious as we know. It’s too slow, too expensive, unsuited to
distributed generation and the coming smart grids, as well as completely
impractical for rural Third World environments. It can do nothing to
reduce emissions from the transportation sector or agriculture, not to
mention its show-stopping liabilities — safety, security and radioactive
waste.
What nuclear power can boast is that is has slowed progress on achieving
a low-carbon economy; wasted precious time on fruitless promises of a
“renaissance”; stolen funds from renewable energy; and captured sectors
of the energy market at our expense and for no other reason than to
claim continued legitimacy.
I love elephants. We must do everything we can to save them. But the
nuclear power elephant in the room really does need to go extinct in a
hurry. Otherwise, that is the fate that will instead befall all of us.
https://beyondnuclearinternational.org/2023/10/01/the-solar-world-we-might-have-had/
/[ BBC reports ]/
*Portuguese man o' war: Sightings more likely amid warmer seas
*By Thamayanthi McAllister
BBC News
10/7/23
Climate change is likely to result in larger tropical sea creatures
washing up on UK beaches more often, a marine expert has said.
A Portuguese man o' war, normally seen in tropical waters, was found on
Porth Dafarch beach, Anglesey, this week.
John Whitaker, who stumbled across the creature on a dog walk, said it
was the first he had ever seen.
Anglesey Sea Zoo has said they have washed up in the past but this one
was bigger than usual.
Often mistaken as a jellyfish, another of these siphonophores washed up
on a Jersey beach in September.
"I had to make sure the dog didn't get his nose too close," said Mr
Whitaker.
"It's the first time I'd seen one up here, usually the water is too cold."
The change in water temperature is a factor, as Anglesey Sea Zoo's
Frankie Hobro explained on BBC Radio Wales' Phone In Show on Thursday.
"We do occasionally see Portuguese man o' war washed up, this one looks
like it's a little bit bigger than the ones we've had in the past," she
said.
"Sea temperatures just now are starting to drop a little bit.
"They were at their highest a month ago and with the changing weather
patterns increasing overall sea temperatures all around the UK we are
likely to see more of these species that are considered to be tropical -
not just more often but larger as well."
Portuguese man o' wars live on the surface of the water and they are a
type of animal that is made up of a colony of organisms working together.
"They are quite obvious even from a distance," added Ms Hobro.
"They have this very large float on the surface and the tentacles can
actually go down to one, two or even three metres (3 to 10ft) in length
underneath them in the water."
She added although they were not deadly to humans, they were best avoided.
"While I was working in the tropics, several years before I came here
and bought the business it was this classic scenario where it was being
washed around in the surf.
"I was standing in the surf and it wrapped itself around my ankle.
"It was very painful, it takes several weeks to recover from the marks
of the sting that it leaves, it's not pleasant."
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-67028439
/[ "Within our lifetime" warning - People Magazine has erased this 1979
text from their server. Thanks goes to the web.archive for rescuing
it-- "Gordon J.F. MacDonald was a prominent early scientific advocate
of action to address the threat of global warming from fossil-fuel
combustion. By the 1960s, MacDonald was publicly concerned about the
potential risks of industrial climate change, both aerosol-induced
global cooling and carbon-dioxide driven global warming." Wikipedia "
He served on the original Presidential Council on Environmental Quality
(1970–1972). President Nixon remarked at the time, "I have three members
of the Harvard class of 1950 on my staff, all summa cum laude." The
reference was to Henry Kissinger, James Schlesinger, and MacDonald...
MacDonald chaired the CIA's MEDEA Committee (1993–1996), a group of
environmental scientists convened by the CIA to study whether data from
classified intelligence systems could shed light on global environmental
issues" ]/
/*October 8, 1979*/
*October 8, 1979: People Magazine reports on growing concerns about a
human-caused climate crisis.*
October 08, 1979 Vol. 12 No. 15CO2
*Could Change Our Climate and Flood the Earth—Up to Here*
By Michael J. Weiss
If Gordon MacDonald is wrong, they'll laugh, otherwise, they'll gurgle
The scenario reads like an Irwin Allen disaster movie. Early in the
21st century, carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere thickens
ominously. The CO2 admits sunlight but prevents escape of heat from
the planet's surface, creating a situation known as the "greenhouse
effect." Average temperatures increase, from 3 to 20°F, melting ice
at the poles. Oceans rise everywhere by perhaps 20 feet, inundating
coastal cities. Some 25 percent of the world's population must flee
to higher ground. Food shortages follow. All is chaos.
Purveyor of this doomsday theory—the man Charlton Heston would play
in the movie—is Gordon MacDonald, 50, a geology and environmental
sciences professor at Dartmouth. Researchers have long worried about
the effects of carbon dioxide produced by burning oil, gas and coal.
MacDonald says the Carter administration's proposal to develop
synthetic fuels by converting coal into oil and gas involves a
process that will dramatically increase the CO2 level. With
synfuels, atmospheric carbon dioxide could double by 2020, MacDonald
predicts. As a result, new temperature patterns could begin to
change the weather all over the globe by 1990.
"The Adirondacks and New England might not get snow," he predicts.
"In Washington, summer highs will jump from the 90s to the 100s.
Some leafy plants like corn and sugar beets will benefit from
increased photosynthesis, but you'll see a 30- to 40-percent drop in
wheat production. That's because the latitudes suitable for wheat
will move north, where the land lacks nutrients to support intensive
agriculture."
MacDonald has taken his concern to Congress as well as to the
scientific community, and he has credentials in both. At 32, he was
one of the youngest members ever elected to the National Academy of
Sciences in 1962. His résumé lists 134 published articles, plus 10
major lecture series. He has also been an adviser to Presidents
Eisenhower (on space exploration), Kennedy (weather), Johnson (ocean
pollution), Nixon (coal), Ford (technology exchange) and Carter
(national security). "Nixon," MacDonald remembers, "would say he had
three summa cum laudes from the Harvard class of 1950: Jim
Schlesinger, Henry Kissinger and me." (At the National Academy of
Sciences in 1963 MacDonald first ran across statistics relating
climate to CO2; since the late 1950s carbon dioxide is up to 10
percent in the atmosphere, but because the ocean is still absorbing
it, no real temperature changes have occurred.)
The greenhouse theory continues to be the subject of heated debate.
Some scientists contend the oceans will never become so saturated
with CO2 that the climate is affected. Dan Dreyfus, staff director
of the Senate Energy Committee, dismisses MacDonald's fears by more
or less dismissing him. "He's a generalist," Dreyfus says. "Carbon
dioxide is not the only thing he's interested in, and it's a very
complicated geophysical problem. I don't think anyone can definitely
say what effect increased CO2 will have on the climate." Yet in
July, when MacDonald and other scientists reported on CO2 to the
President's Council on Environmental Quality, the council called it
"an extremely important, perhaps historic, statement."
As an alternative to synthetic fuels, MacDonald suggests a mix of
solar energy, fusion, natural gas and biomass (mostly alcohol-based
fuels made from converting trees, sugarcane and other plants). He
prefers natural gas, which produces little carbon dioxide. He's
lobbying for it while on leave from Dartmouth to work as chief
scientist at the MITRE Corporation, a goverment-funded Washington
think tank.
MacDonald grew up in Mexico City, the son of a British mining
executive and an American embassy clerk. He became a U.S. citizen in
1955 and taught at UCLA and California (Santa Barbara) before moving
to Dartmouth in 1972. His first marriage ended in divorce. He has
three children by his second wife, who died of cancer; he has a son
with his third wife.
With CO2, MacDonald is of course presenting the worst case scenario
with great flair. "He isn't the usual ass-covering bureaucrat," an
Energy Committee staffer marveled after MacDonald testified against
the Carter synfuel proposal. "He provided quite a show." MacDonald
realizes that if he is wrong, his warnings will sound ridiculous. If
not, world catastrophe will result—"not 200 years from now but
within our lifetime."
/http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html
The content that you're looking for is unavailable./
https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://people.com/people/archive/article/0%2C%2C20074765%2C00.html
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