[✔️] October 20, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Wallace-Wells opinion, Deaths and Mortality, Bye fire year in CA, Proactive wildfires, Civ collapse, Energy transition, 2011 Maddow invites Koch
R.Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Fri Oct 20 05:20:14 EDT 2023
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/*October 20*//*, 2023*/
/[ *"Why Are So Many Americans Dying?*"
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/18/opinion/beyond-deaths-of-despair.html
NYTimes ]/
*Too many Americans, in almost all groups, are dying*
By David Wallace-Wells
Opinion Writer
October 18, 2023
Since it was first introduced by the economists Anne Case and Angus
Deaton in 2015, the phrase “deaths of despair” has become a sort of
spiritual skeleton key that promised to unlock the whole tragic story of
a new American underclass.
Beginning around the turn of the millennium, Case and Deaton showed,
deaths from suicide, opioid overdose and alcohol-related liver disease
among less educated, white, middle-aged people began to grow in a
pattern that seemed to demonstrate how the country’s white working class
was being — or at least feeling — left behind. Last month, the
economists presented their updated data with a new paper showing a
growing divergence in life expectancy between those with college degrees
and those without.
But over the past few years, the “deaths of despair” story has come to
seem thinner to many of those reading the literature most closely. And
in response to the new findings, pointed critiques were published by
Dylan Matthews in Vox and by Matthew Yglesias in Slow Boring, arguing
that the deaths of despair narrative had been overhyped, creating a
just-so story about postindustrial decline that had seemed too good to
scrutinize.
Eight years on, the central claim from Case and Deaton holds up
relatively well: Deaths by suicide, overdose and liver disease have been
on the rise among the white working class and the middle class. But so
have gun deaths across the country, deaths among the young and suicides,
which puts the data on white middle-aged men and women in a different
light. Among other questions about that data, it turns out that deaths
of despair increased pretty uniformly across all demographic groups and
that the rise in such deaths among white middle-aged people was, while
real and concerning, not all that exceptional.
What does that imply, though? In their critiques, both Yglesias and
Matthews argue that the data tells a narrower story than Case and Deaton
do — and that rather than invoking national malaise we should focus on
the role of opioids among the country’s worst off in the first case, or
high school dropouts and heart disease in the second.
But it seems to me that the opposite is true: The American mortality
crisis is much larger than deaths of despair, in fact too broad and
diffuse to be stuffed into one demographic box or characterized as a
failure of one policy area. You can see it almost anywhere you care to
look and any way you slice the data.
Unless they’re in the top 1 percent, Americans are dying at higher rates
than their British counterparts, and if you’re part of the bottom half
of income earners, simply being American can cut as much as five years
off your life expectancy. At every age below 80, Americans are dying
more often than people in their peer nations: Infant mortality is up to
three times as high as it is in comparison countries; one in 25
kindergartners can’t expect to see 40, a rate nearly four times as high
as in other countries; and Americans between 15 and 24 are twice as
likely to die as those in France, Germany, Japan and other wealthy
nations. For every ethnic group but Asian Americans, prepandemic
mortality rates in the United States were higher than those of economic
peer countries: In 2019, Black Americans were 3.8 times as likely to die
as the residents of other wealthy countries, white Americans were 2.5
times as likely to die, and Hispanic Americans 1.8 times as likely to
die. Americans with college degrees do substantially better than those
without, but that second group represents almost two-thirds of the
country. And while mortality rates show a clear geographic divergence,
with life expectancy gaps as large as 20 years between the country’s
richest and poorest places, just a fraction of American counties even
reach the European Union average.
When looking at American trend lines alone, anomalies like overdose
spikes or mortality increases among high-school dropouts can jump out,
and the divergence between, say, those with bachelor’s degrees and those
without is quite striking. But in comparing the overall health of
Americans to those in other wealthy countries, almost everyone looks to
be suffering, and even those remarkable anomalies turn out to be quite
small, contributing only somewhat trivially to the widening gap between
how many Americans are dying each year and how many of our peers
elsewhere are.
Overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids, for instance, have grown
from less than 10,000 in 2015 to 70,000 in 2021. Add heroin and other
overdoses and the total grows to more than 100,000 — a public health
horror story, and a much graver problem than in any of our peer
countries. But that barely explains a fraction of the exceptional
American mortality pattern identified by the researchers Jacob Bor and
Andrew Stokes, who found that a million more Americans died each year
than would have if the country’s overall mortality rates matched those
of peer countries in Europe.
Those million extra deaths exceed even the nearly 700,000 who die each
year from cardiovascular disease, the country’s biggest killer. But of
course many residents of other rich countries die from it, too. And
though, as Matthews emphasizes, American progress against heart disease
has stalled in recent years, the gap between our cardiovascular
mortality and those of our peers turns out to be relatively small,
accounting for just another fraction of Bor and Stokes’s “missing
Americans.” Which tells you something about how large that number of
extra deaths really is: If American mortality rates simply matched those
of peers overall, the country’s total number of deaths would have fallen
22 percent on the eve of the pandemic in 2019. In 2021, the researchers
found, extra mortality accounted for nearly one in every three American
deaths.
“The United States is failing at a fundamental mission — keeping people
alive,” The Washington Post recently concluded, in a remarkable series
on the country’s mortality crisis. “This erosion in life spans is deeper
and broader than widely recognized, afflicting a far-reaching swath of
the United States.” In a quarter of American counties, The Post found,
death rates among working-age adults are not just failing to improve but
are also higher than they were 40 years ago. “The trail of death is so
prevalent that a person could go from Virginia to Louisiana, and then up
to Kansas, by traveling entirely within counties where death rates are
higher than they were when Jimmy Carter was president.” If death rates
just among the country’s 55-to-69-year-olds improved to match the rates
of peer countries, The Post calculated, 200,000 fewer of them would have
died in 2019. That is more than the number of them who died of Covid in
2020.
There are a few things that Americans do as well or better than other
countries (cancer treatment, where outcomes have been steadily improving
now for decades, and keeping old people alive), so chances that a
75-year-old makes it to 90 or 100 are about the same as in other wealthy
countries — though that stat is somewhat distorted by the fact that many
fewer Americans make it to 60 in the first place, with those who do
likelier in better health.
But by almost every other measure the United States is lagging its
peers, often catastrophically. The rate of homicides involving a firearm
are 22 times higher in the United States as in the European Union, for
instance, a worsening trend that has given rise to research suggesting
that the country’s mortality crisis is primarily about gun violence.
Another set of researchers emphasize exceptional mortality rates among
the young, with rates of death among American children growing more than
15 percent between just 2019 and 2021, with little of that increase
attributable to Covid. Americans also die much more often in car
crashes, workplace accidents and fires. Our maternal mortality rate is
more than three times as high as that of other wealthy countries, and
our newborns have the highest infant mortality rate in the rich world.
We are almost twice as likely to suffer from obesity as are our
counterparts in countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development, and the downstream consequences — from hypertension to
heart disease and stroke — mean that obesity could explain more than 40
percent of the U.S. life expectancy shortfall for women, and over 60
percent for men. The life expectancy among America’s poorest men may be
20 years shorter than that of their counterparts in the Netherlands and
Sweden. Overall, among 18 high-income countries, America’s life
expectancy ranks dead last.
It’s not quite right to call all this simply “despair,” even if social
anomie plays a role. Doing so places too much weight on the suffering of
individuals and not enough on what epidemiologists call the social and
environmental determinants of health: community support, education and,
perhaps most important, health care access. (Since 2015, Case and Deaton
have acknowledged these factors; their 2020 book on the subject
emphasizes health care inequalities, and Deaton’s new book “Economics in
America” focuses squarely on inequality.)
But the bigger problem seems to me to be that talking narrowly about
despair localizes the American mortality dysfunction in a small
demographic, when almost the entire country is dying at alarming rates.
The burden does not fall equally, and the disparities matter. But
looking globally, our mortality crisis appears, effectively, national.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/18/opinion/beyond-deaths-of-despair.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4Ew.cZP2.Je4kvzRC9P2J&smid=url-share/[
see NYT site for links to sources ]/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/18/opinion/beyond-deaths-of-despair.html
- -
/[ perhaps unfair to compare with over-simplified data from CDC National
Center for Health Statistics ]/
*Deaths and Mortality*
Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths: 3,464,231
Death rate: 1,043.8 deaths per 100,000 population
Source: National Vital Statistics System – Mortality Data (2021) via CDC
WONDER
Life expectancy: 76.4 years
Infant Mortality rate: 5.44 deaths per 1,000 live births
Source: Mortality in the United States, 2021, data tables for figures 1, 5
Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 695,547
Cancer: 605,213
COVID-19: 416,893
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 224,935
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 162,890
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 142,342
Alzheimer’s disease: 119,399
Diabetes: 103,294
Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis: 56,585
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 54,358
Source: Mortality in the United States, 2021, data table for figure 4
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
/*
*/
/*
*/
/[ In sports this would be a bye year ]/
*California this year got off easy — SO FAR*
Kelly Andersson
October 16, 2023
The acreage burned to date in California is less than a third of the
state’s 5-year average, according to Cal Fire, and experts attribute the
lower numbers to the historic winter storms and a record snowpack in the
Pacific Southwest. But those “atmospheric river” storms resulted in huge
fuels growth that could, with gusty autumn winds, mean wildfires into
November or even December.
“Now is not the time for people to let their guard down,”...
https://wildfiretoday.com/2023/10/16/california-this-year-got-off-easy-so-far/
- -
/[ Yikes! - You mean Congress can help? ]/
*U.S. must shift from ‘reactive to proactive’ to manage wildfire crisis*
Hunter Bassler
October 17, 2023
The U.S. faces a wildfire crisis that costs the federal government $2.5
billion a year — a crisis that a recent report [PDF] concluded the feds
can’t face alone.
President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in 2021 created the
federal Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission and charged
it with recommending improvements to federal agencies’ management of
wildfire across the landscape. The commission was tasked with creating
new policy recommendations to address the wildfire crisis.
- -
“The Commission urges Congress to take swift action [ what!? Congress? ]
to advance the holistic solutions needed to reduce the risk of wildfire
to the nation,” the report says. “Only through comprehensive action can
we hope to prepare for the wildfires of today and, critically, the
wildfires of tomorrow.”
The commission listed 148 recommended changes in its report, which
focused on eight points:
* Shift focus from fire response to pre-fire planning and risk
mitigation
* Treat the wildfire crisis as a public health crisis
* Unify local and federal resources
* Improve community and ecosystem resilience in post-fire areas
* Increase pay and hiring for wildland firefighters
* Update the fire management system with current technology
* Significantly increase investments to reduce long-term costs and
risks
* Enhance work across jurisdictions
The suggestions were similar to another report released in September by
the National Interagency Hotshot Crew Steering Committee, which also
recommended that Congress increase investment in wildland firefighters
along with hiring and pay.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2023/10/17/u-s-must-shift-from-reactive-to-proactive-to-manage-wildfire-crisis/
/- -
/
/[ video with Paul Beckwith reads an overview of a harsh reality -- but
he added one ]/
*11 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse*
Paul Beckwith
Oct 17, 2023
An excellent article came out recently, explaining 10 reasons why our
civilization will soon collapse; here is the link:
https://www.okdoomer.io/10-reasons-our-civilization-will-soon-collapse/
Since this article is so well written, well referenced, and hard hitting
I felt that it was very important to do a detailed video on it.
Given the total destruction of a hospital in the Gaza Strip today with
the loss of over 500 human lives, almost certainly by a U.S. built JDAM
1000 pound bomb dropped intentionally from an Israeli warplane, I have
added an additional reason to the ten in the article.
Given the events of the day, we appear to be marching closer to global
catastrophe and civilization collapse, and it is hard to argue that we
don’t deserve it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXrY4ESpIII
- -
/[ text - this is a difficult opinion -- but all of it seems to be
scientifically correct ]/
*10 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse*
A deep dive into the problems world leaders have let spiral out of control.
Alan Urban
OCTOBER 15 2023
That’s right. Our entire global industrial civilization is going to
collapse. And soon, which means within the lifetimes of most people
alive today.
I realize this is quite the claim, and a pretty terrifying one if you’re
under 50 or so. In this article, I will list 10 problems the world is
facing, each of which could cause the collapse of civilization all on
its own. Which means, if even one of these problems isn’t solved, our
civilization is doomed.
Before I continue, let me explain what I mean by “collapse.” First of
all, it doesn’t necessarily mean that humans will go extinct. While that
is certainly a plausible scenario given the many existential threats we
are facing, I still believe it is unlikely. Small groups of humans
survived in very difficult conditions for tens of thousands of years.
By collapse, I mean a breakdown of social institutions like governments
and economies, followed by a dramatic decline in the human population. I
realize that’s still kind of vague, so here’s a more specific definition
I found in the book, How Everything Can Collapse.
It says, “A collapse is the process at the end of which basic needs
(water, food, housing, clothing, energy, etc.) can no longer be provided
[at a reasonable cost] to a majority of the population by services under
legal supervision.”
As society breaks down, life will get simpler and simpler. By the late
21st century, people will be living the way they did in the early 19th
century.
How do I know this? Let’s start with humanity’s biggest problem. No,
it’s not climate change. It’s something most people have never even
heard of...
*1. Overshoot*
Although I’ve listed overshoot as just one of the many problems humanity
is facing, I could argue that it’s the only problem we’re facing because
every other problem on this list is the result of overshoot...
- -
*2. The End of Cheap Fossil Fuels...*
The first and most obvious use for fossil fuels such as oil is to make
gasoline and diesel for our vehicles. Without those, our civilization
would completely collapse because truckers need diesel to get food and
supplies to the stores. Not to mention the fact that most people in the
developed world need gasoline to get to their jobs.
- -
*3. The Failure of Green Energy...*
This is the sad irony of the so-called green energy revolution: If we
stop using fossil fuels, we’ll see a collapse in the production of
renewables. And really, they shouldn’t even be called renewables because
wind and solar farms have to be rebuilt every 20-30 years. They should
be called rebuildables.
- -
*4. Dwindling Resources*
Rubber..., Sand..., Fertilizer...
- -
*5. Topsoil Erosion*
...once topsoil erodes away, the land it was on becomes unproductive.
This is why the loss of our topsoil is one of humanity’s biggest problems.
- -
*6. Water Shortages*
...cities and states begin fighting each other for water rights, to the
point where water mafias emerge and decide who gets water and who
doesn’t. Neighboring countries that rely on the same mountains and
rivers for water go to war with each other.
This is the future we’re heading for if something isn’t done about the
global water shortage. In fact, this is what life is already like in
many parts of the world, especially India...
- -
*7. Climate Change*
Part of the problem is that scientists and the media have done a
terrible job explaining climate change to the public...
The increasing number and severity of natural disasters will eventually
cause simultaneous breadbasket failures around the world, and the
subsequent food shortages will lead to global famine and the breakdown
of society.
- -
*8. Biodiversity Loss...*
We are living through our planet’s sixth mass extinction event. The last
one occurred about 65 million years ago and was the result of an
asteroid. It was so destructive that it caused the dinosaurs, which had
been around for 165 million years, to go extinct. Now we are in another
mass extinction event, but this one is being caused by us....
- -
*9. Migrant Crisis...*
The Syrian refugee crisis is considered the largest refugee crisis of
modern times, and it has caused chaos and tension all across Europe.
This happened because of a mere 7 million people leaving the Middle East
and heading North.
The climate crisis is expected to produce up to 1.5 billion migrants by
2050. Even if only half of them leave their home countries, it will be a
refugee crisis 100 times worse than the one that has happened across
Syria and Europe over the past decade...
- -
*10. Increasing Conflict...*
As I write this, Russia and NATO are in a dangerous proxy war in
Ukraine. The reasons for this are extremely complicated, but one of the
major causes is dwindling resources.
- -
*Conclusion*
For decades, it’s been obvious that our global industrial civilization
has an expiration date, but only recently have many scientists come to
realize that the expiration date could be during their own lifetimes.
Fifty years ago, humans overshot the carrying capacity of the planet.
Since then, we have been exploiting the Earth’s resources faster and
faster, stealing from future generations. Our civilization wouldn’t even
exist without fossil fuels, but we are rapidly running out of them. And
it appears green energy won’t be able to replace them as there aren’t
enough metals in the ground.
Even if we had unlimited clean energy, we would still run out of crucial
resources like rubber, sand, groundwater, and the ingredients for
fertilizer. As the world’s topsoil erodes, it will get harder and harder
to grow enough food for everybody.
Eventually, we might not be able to grow food at all. Water shortages
are already becoming a major problem, and this is just the beginning.
Climate change is drying up the rivers, burning down the forests, and
causing disasters the likes of which we’ve never seen.
Meanwhile, life of all types—from tiny plants to giant mammals—are going
extinct even faster than they did during previous mass extinction
events. As the web of life falls apart, human societies will become
impossible to maintain.
All this chaos will lead to the worst migration crisis in the history of
the world. The political tension and fights over resources could very
well lead to nuclear annihilation. But things are so bad that even
without nuclear war, we could still see human extinction by the end of
this century.
Believe it or not, there’s a lot more bad news that I didn’t cover in
this post. I barely touched on climate tipping points, and I could have
written about our crumbling infrastructure, the millions dying from
pollution, the increasing risk of deadly pandemics, and much more, but
this article is already far longer than I originally intended.
It doesn’t please me to share this information. Personally, I am
terrified. Not just for myself, but for my two young children who I had
before I knew all this. I apologize if I have frightened you.
People have asked me, “If we’re all doomed anyway, then what’s the point
of scaring people? Why not just let them live their lives?” It’s a fair
question. My answer is that the more people know about our predicament
and start preparing for what’s coming, the greater chance humanity has
of surviving this century and creating sustainable societies in the
distant future.
I don’t know if that’s even possible. Perhaps we will pass so many
climate tipping points that temperatures will rise high enough to snuff
out life across the entire planet.
Or perhaps after the population declines and the planet warms, new
societies will spring up in places like Greenland and Antarctica. They
won’t be societies that use fossil fuels, so they will likely be much
simpler and more connected to the Earth. Maybe these societies will
learn from our mistakes and take better care of nature—and each other.
If there’s any chance that a future like that is possible, then we
should do everything we can to make it happen. The first step is to
inform people about what’s happening, and the second step is to help
them prepare. Those are the twin goals of this site.
https://www.okdoomer.io/10-reasons-our-civilization-will-soon-collapse/
/[ OK here's a fresh new try out ....]/
*Major U.S. science group lays out a path to smooth the energy transition*
October 17, 2023
By Alejandra Borunda
It's no big mystery: to slow down human-driven climate change, the U.S.
and other countries need to cut carbon emissions fast and thoroughly.
The Biden administration has set the goal of hitting 'net zero' carbon
emissions by 2050. That means bringing most fossil fuel burning to a
near halt by then.
Major climate-focused laws passed in 2021 and 2022, like the Inflation
Reduction Act, have put the country on a solid theoretical pathway
toward hitting that goal, says a new report from the National Academies
of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM)–but, it warns, the efforts
are still nascent and fragile...
The two dozen engineers, scientists, medical specialists, and policy
experts who authored the report developed a series of recommendations
for how to take that theoretical pathway into concrete actions.
One of the most pressing issues on the wishlist? A concerted effort to
ensure that the energy transition helps those most directly affected by
climate change. The report's authors say that effort also must address
and remedy historical harms. For example, redlining policies from the
1930s still today leave many Black and brown communities bereft of trees
and shade, which drives temperatures 5, 10, or 15 degrees higher.
Similar policies have led to health-damaging infrastructure, like fossil
fuel plants or highways, more often ending up in poor communities and
communities of color.
"This is the first time that the National Academy of Sciences have
devoted so much time and focus on energy justice and equity," says
Michael Mendez, a sociologist at the University of California, Irvine,
and an author of the report.
The NASEM report is the second in a two-part series. The first, released
in 2021, laid out a broad menu of policies that would result in major
cuts to the country's fossil fuel emissions. Many of those
recommendations became centerpieces of major climate-focused laws like
the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022 and 2021's Bipartisan Infrastructure
Law in 2021. Recent climate policy efforts, taken together, have the
potential to cut America's emissions by as much as 80% by 2030 if fully
implemented, according to several independent analyses...
- -
"A lot of what [the first report] recommended got adopted in spectacular
legislation," says Stephen Pacala, the report's lead author and an
ecologist at Princeton University. "So our second report is very much in
reaction now to [these] comprehensive pieces of legislation," he says.
Equity isn't an afterthought
Figuring out how to put equity at the center of climate policy isn't
just a question of ethics, says Patricia Romero-Lankao, an energy
sociologist now at the University of Toronto and a report author. Equity
is also a critical practical tool. The NASEM report stresses that many
of the technological strategies needed to transition the country away
from fossil fuel dependency exist, yet other factors slow the transition
down.
"The transition is not only technical but social, and political, and
institutional," says Romero-Lankao.
Renewable energy costs, for example, have become more competitive to
fossil fuels helping to spur the transition along on its own. Within the
last decade the cost of utility-scale solar projects dropped by roughly
90%, while the cost of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles has
fallen by more than 80%, according to the Department of Energy.
People's choices matter. If communities don't want a solar farm in their
city limits, or if they don't want electric car charging stations taking
up parking spots, those technologies won't spread as fast as they need to.
Often, Romero-Lankao says, the message she has heard from
technologically focused scientists and planners is that "we cannot
wait–the transition needs to happen like yesterday." The sociologists,
she says, will agree, "but you better wait and listen and work with
communities–because if you don't do it, you will get a lot of pushback
from it." That means projects can slow or even stop completely.
Shortly after President Biden took office he signed an executive order
that included a mandate, the Justice40 Initiative, to direct 40% of the
investments from major climate policy toward historically disadvantaged
communities. The NASEM report suggests that order gets codified into law
so it will remain a long-term, robust part of future decision-making...
- -
Christopher Tessum is an air pollution expert at the University of
Illinois Urbana-Champaign who wasn't involved in the report. "This is a
major technological transition we have to undertake," he says–and it
needs to happen faster than any previously undertaken. "In the past [the
transitions] have not happened equitably. There are clear winners and
losers. For this one to succeed, because we need buy-in from everyone,
we really need it to be equitable."
There's more to be done
The report highlights a major gap in the current policy landscape: how
to track successes and failures of new climate policy. No comprehensive,
centralized clearinghouse–or agreed-upon way–to keep track of how the
vast investments in climate policy are working, exists. That's an
opportunity for problems, the report stresses.
On a practical and technical level, the existing laws don't go far
enough to push buildings and heavy industry toward fossil-fuel-free
futures, the report says. It points out that buildings alone account for
about 35% of carbon emissions in the U.S.
"For whatever reason, the current policies don't go as far as they need
to go," says Pacala. "We have identified 10 different things that could
be done to get billion metric tons per year of cuts to carbon emissions
from buildings," he says. That includes everything from investing in
programs like the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program to
strengthening and clarifying building codes to prioritize electrification.
The last few years have seen an incredible increase in government-driven
climate action, says Pacala. But "the stakes couldn't be higher. We have
one shot at this," he says. "We need to implement what we now have [in
plans]. We are only going to do that if we are relentless."
https://www.npr.org/2023/10/17/1205592486/major-u-s-science-group-lays-out-a-path-to-smooth-the-energy-transtion#:~:text=Major%20U.S,Alejandra%20Borunda
/[ The news archive - looking back at the calling out of dark, secret
disinformation battalions ]/
/*October 20, 2011*/
October 20, 2011: MSNBC host Rachel Maddow challenges Charles and David
Koch to come on to her show after repeated rhetorical attacks on the
program by Koch operatives. The challenge is never accepted.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uh8O7tZ2GD4
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