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<font size="+1"><i>March 13 , 2017 Weirdly warm for the 3rd
year -- and why facts don't matter. </i></font><br>
<br>
<font color="#666666" size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatecrocks.com/2017/03/12/weirdly-warm-2017-could-we-set-another-record/">https://climatecrocks.com/2017/03/12/weirdly-warm-2017-could-we-set-another-record/</a></font><br>
<font size="+1"><b><a
href="https://climatecrocks.com/2017/03/12/weirdly-warm-2017-could-we-set-another-record/">"Weirdly
Warm" 2017. Could we Set another record?</a></b></font><br>
<blockquote>2017 has been weirdly warm so far despite a lack of El
Nino conditions. If Jan/Feb temps were representative it would end
up surpassing 2016<br>
<blockquote><a
href="https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/840763945183019008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">Zeke
Hausfather @hausfath</a> 2017 has been weirdly warm so far
despite a lack of El Nino conditions. If Jan/Feb temps were
representative it would end up surpassing 2016<br>
<br>
<a
href="https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/840639650557485057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">Robert
Rohde @rarohde</a> With both January and February 2017 being
warmer than the 2016 average, the odds of 2017 finishing warmer
than 2016 continues to increase.<br>
</blockquote>
Both (Zeke Hausfather and Robert Rohde), have been members of the
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures group, formed by climate
skeptic physicist Richard Muller - significantly, with funding
from the Koch Brothers - that closely examined surface temperature
records to finally settle, (at least in Muller's mind), what every
major scientific group has known for 40 years...<br>
Yesterday, both of them tweeted observations about how global
temperatures are playing out.<br>
Normally, following a giant El Nino, such as we saw in 2015-16, we
would expect a temporary drop in global temps, possibly with a
complimentary, cooling La Nina event.<br>
That is not what we see.<br>
The question arises - will we set new global temperature records 4
years in a row?<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
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url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/iphones-and-global-warming-dispatches-from-a-siberian-husky-in-the-45th-iditarod/2017/03/12/21313c04-06ec-11e7-b9fa-ed727b644a0b_story.html"
id="MAA4C0gAUABgAWoCdXM" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);
text-decoration: underline;"><span class="titletext"
style="font-weight: bold;">iPhones and<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b
style="font-weight: bold;">global warming</b>: Dispatches
from a Siberian husky in the 45th Iditarod</span></a></h2>
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-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255);">They're running out of snow, so "The Last Great Race on
Earth" might be down to its last race soon. As the 45th Iditarod
Trail Sled Dog Race treks on, Couch Slouch is pleased that Tuffy
the Snow Prince, the outspoken 55-pound Siberian husky on
musher ...</div>
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<font color="#666666" size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://theconversation.com/curbing-climate-change-has-a-dollar-value-heres-how-and-why-we-measure-it-70882">https://theconversation.com/curbing-climate-change-has-a-dollar-value-heres-how-and-why-we-measure-it-70882</a></font><br>
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style="font-weight: bold;">Curbing<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b
style="font-weight: bold;">climate change</b> has a dollar
value — here's how and why we measure it</span></a></h2>
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<blockquote>President Trump is expected to issue an executive order
soon to reverse Obama-era rules to cut carbon pollution, including
a moratorium on leasing public lands for coal mining and a plan to
reduce carbon emissions from power plants...<br>
Trump and his appointees argue that these steps will bring coal
miners' jobs back (although coal industry job losses reflect
competition from cheap natural gas, not regulations that have yet
to take effect). But they ignore the fact that mitigating climate
change will produce large economic gains...<br>
While burning fossil fuels produces benefits, such as powering the
electric grid and fueling cars, it also generates widespread costs
to society – including damages from climate change that affect
people around the world now and in the future. Public policies
that reduce carbon pollution deliver benefits by avoiding these
damages...<br>
The social cost of carbon represents the damages of one ton of
carbon dioxide emitted into the air. To estimate it, economists
run models that forecast varying levels of carbon dioxide
emissions. They can then model and compare two forecasts – one
with slightly higher emissions than the other. The difference in
total climate change damages represents the social cost of
carbon...<br>
Carbon pollution can remain in the atmosphere for up to 200 years,
so these models are run over a century or more in order to account
for long-term damages that carbon emissions impose on society.<br>
<font color="#666666" size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24651/valuing-climate-damages-updating-estimation-of-the-social-cost-of">https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24651/valuing-climate-damages-updating-estimation-of-the-social-cost-of</a></font><br>
<b><a
href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24651/valuing-climate-damages-updating-estimation-of-the-social-cost-of">Valuing
Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of
Carbon Dioxide (2017)</a></b><br>
<font size="-1">The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic
metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net
damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both
negative and positive - from the global climate change that
results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide
(CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory
impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S.
government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in
federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated
with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working
Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a
methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of
assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth
systems.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<br>
<font color="#666666" size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds">http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds</a></font><br>
<font size="+1"><b><a
href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds">WHY
FACTS DON'T CHANGE OUR MINDS</a></b></font><br>
<blockquote> New discoveries about the human mind show the
limitations of reason.<br>
<b>By Elizabeth Kolbert</b><br>
Even after the evidence "for their beliefs has been totally
refuted, people fail to make appropriate revisions in those
beliefs," the researchers noted. In this case, the failure was
"particularly impressive," since two data points would never have
been enough information to generalize from....<br>
Reason developed not to enable us to solve abstract, logical
problems or even to help us draw conclusions from unfamiliar data;
rather, it developed to resolve the problems posed by living in
collaborative groups....<br>
If reason is designed to generate sound judgments, then it's hard
to conceive of a more serious design flaw than confirmation
bias...<br>
Steven Sloman, a professor at Brown, and Philip Fernbach, a
professor at the University of Colorado, are also cognitive
scientists. They, too, believe sociability is the key to how the
human mind functions or, perhaps more pertinently, malfunctions.
...Sloman and Fernbach see this effect, which they call the
"illusion of explanatory depth," just about everywhere..<br>
If your position on, say, the Affordable Care Act is baseless and
I rely on it, then my opinion is also baseless. When I talk to Tom
and he decides he agrees with me, his opinion is also baseless,
but now that the three of us concur we feel that much more smug
about our views. If we all now dismiss as unconvincing any
information that contradicts our opinion, you get, well, the Trump
Administration...<br>
... they, too, dedicate many pages to confirmation bias, which,
they claim, has a physiological component. They cite research
suggesting that people experience genuine pleasure - a rush of
dopamine - when processing information that supports their
beliefs. "It feels good to 'stick to our guns' even if we are
wrong," they observe...<br>
These days, it can feel as if the entire country has been given
over to a vast psychological experiment being run either by no one
or by Steve Bannon. Rational agents would be able to think their
way to a solution. But, on this matter, the literature is not
reassuring.<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
<font color="#666666" size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-ucsd-20170311-story.html">http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-ucsd-20170311-story.html</a></font><br>
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url="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-ucsd-20170311-story.html"
id="MAA4DEgAUABgAWoCdXM" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);
text-decoration: underline;"><span class="titletext"
style="font-weight: bold;">UCSD scientists worry Trump could
suppress <b style="font-weight: bold;">climate change</b><span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>data</span></a></h2>
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<blockquote> UC San Diego may accelerate plans to preserve its
climate data due to growing concerns among faculty members that
the Trump administration could interfere with their work...<br>
UC San Diego, one of the nation's 10 largest research
universities, sharpened its focus on climate data 18 months ago
after learning that the federal government is trimming support for
archiving such information...<br>
But the apprehension about Trump's views on climate change have
given a sense of urgency to that project, said those involved with
the undertaking...<br>
"It is a reaction to the concerns of the scholarly community and
the scientific research community about the effect that the new
presidency has vis-à-vis climate change, vis-à-vis any other of a
number of things," said Brian Schottlaender, the university's head
librarian. "The stakes are up. The stakes are high. There's more
at risk now."<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
<font color="#666666" size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a53805/climate-skeptics-trump-administration/">http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a53805/climate-skeptics-trump-administration/</a></font><br>
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text-decoration: underline;"><span class="titletext"
style="font-weight: bold;">It's the Golden Age of<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b
style="font-weight: bold;">Climate</b><span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Denial</span></a></h2>
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<blockquote> In Trump's America, more CO2 in the atmosphere is
actually good.<br>
In fact, it does not contradict the scientific consensus on
climate change, which holds that higher carbon dioxide levels lead
to warmer temperatures and, in turn, among other things, to
melting sea ice and rising sea levels...<br>
Of course, some of the largest multinational corporations in the
history of the world have spent decades disputing the effects of
carbon dioxide production to protect vested interests. ExxonMobil,
for instance, first became aware of the threat in 1981, but spent
27 years funding denial of it. That climate science is the real
big business, crushing the little guy whose work just happens to
help the fossil fuel industry, is the kind of delusion that
pervaded the seminars at CPAC, and that infects this movement
generally...<br>
In our conversations, both Happer and Morano said Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson, who left his post as CEO of ExxonMobil to
take the job, could be the biggest obstacle to their agenda in the
White House. (That ExxonMobil has donated over half a million
dollars to Morano's organization over the years doesn't seem to
complicate things for him. Happer, whose organizations have also
received funding from large fossil fuel companies and prominent
conservative donor networks like the Bradley Foundation, described
a "David and Goliath" scenario where the Sierra Club is Goliath.)
Happer also identified ExxonMobil as an enemy of his movement. If
you're keeping score at home, the former CEO of the world's fourth
largest oil and gas corporation is now, in the estimation of some
skeptics, the most prominent advocate for combatting climate
change in the executive branch...<br>
Morano wants the president to "unleash" fracking, oil drilling,
and coal production, the latter of which he somewhat agreed was no
longer even competitive due to the rise of cheap natural
gas...Strange: a climate skeptic who isn't just interested in
disputing the science, but who also openly advocates for more
expansive use of fossil fuels, including economically inefficient
ones. It's almost like these things are connected.<br>
</blockquote>
<!--EndFragment--><br>
<font color="#666666"><i><i><a
href="https://soundcloud.com/smerconishshow/dr-michael-mann-the-hockey">https://soundcloud.com/smerconishshow/dr-michael-mann-the-hockey</a></i></i></font><font
size="+1"><i><font size="+1"><i><br>
</i></font><font size="+1"><b><a
href="March%2013,%202012:%20Climate%20scientist%20Michael%20Mann%20discusses%20his%20book%20%22The%20Hockey%20Stick%20and%20the%20Climate%20Wars%22%20with%20nationally%20syndicated%20talk%20radio%20host%20Michael%20Smerconish.,,https://soundcloud.com/smerconishshow/dr-michael-mann-the-hockey">(audio)
This Day in Climate History March 13, 2012 </a> - from
D.R. Tucker</b></font> <br>
</i></font>Climate scientist Michael Mann discusses his book "The
Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars" with nationally syndicated talk
radio host Michael Smerconish.<font size="+1"><i> (15 minutes)<br>
<br>
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
S</i></font><font size="+1"><i>tay
well-informed & forward this email.</i></font>
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