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<font size="+1"><i>June 15, 2017</i></font><br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKP9EXyd1so">Climate Model
Predictions: History versus Observations</a></b><br>
Reviewing archival video to see scientists making predictions based
on early, primitive 1980s climate models. Did they play out?<br>
Modern observations show the evidence.<br>
Part of the "This is Not Cool" series for Yale Climate Connections.
<br>
See more here <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/author/psinclair/">https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/author/psinclair/</a><br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKP9EXyd1so">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKP9EXyd1so</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/">(National
Geographic) Antarctica Is Melting, and Giant Ice Cracks Are
Just the Start</a></b><b><br>
</b>"These are the fastest retreating glaciers on the face of the
Earth," says Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at the NASA Jet Propulsion
Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Rignot has studied the region
for more than two decades, using radar from aircraft and satellites,
and he believes the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is only
a matter of time. The question is whether it will take 500 years or
fewer than a hundred - and whether humanity will have time to
prepare.<br>
"We have to get these numbers right," Rignot says. "But we have to
be careful not to waste too much time doing that."...<br>
As the researchers lay in their tents at night, in the middle of a
4,000-mile arc of coastline that lacked a single permanent outpost,
they heard loud pops and bangs coming from the ice. Each morning
they saw new cracks, an inch wide and seemingly bottomless, cutting
across its surface. During their five weeks of studying it, the ice
under their boots thinned by another seven feet....<br>
According to his calculations, the ice shelf was losing 13 cubic
miles of ice per year from its underside; back near the grounding
line, the ice was probably thinning up to 300 feet per year....<br>
Large swaths of West Antarctica are hemorrhaging ice these days. The
warming has been the most dramatic on the Antarctic Peninsula, a
spine of ice-cloaked mountains that reaches 700 miles up toward the
tip of South America. Catching the powerful winds and ocean currents
that swirl endlessly around Antarctica, the peninsula gets slammed
with warm air and water from farther north. Average annual
temperatures on its west side have risen nearly 5 degrees Fahrenheit
since 1950 - several times faster than the rest of the planet - and
the winters have warmed an astonishing 9 degrees. Sea ice now forms
only four months a year instead of seven....<br>
It's unclear when the entire ice shelf might disintegrate. The
"warm" water flowing underneath it from offshore is only 4 to 6
degrees Fahrenheit above freezing. But roughly 3,000 cubic miles of
it arrives every year, which means the ice shelf is receiving an
amount of heat that exceeds the output of a hundred nuclear power
plants, operating 24/7....<br>
Between 2002 and 2009 alone, the ice shelf in front of the Smith
Glacier thinned by 1,500 feet in some places, the one in front of
the Pope Glacier by up to 800 feet. The grounding lines of the
Amundsen glaciers have retreated so far - tens of miles in some
cases - that they now rest on seafloor that slopes down toward the
center of the ice sheet. Each increment of retreat exposes a greater
ice surface to warm ocean water. It's a runaway process - and
scientists are urgently trying to figure out how fast it will
run....<br>
Fricker and her team have found that from 1994 to 2012, the amount
of ice disappearing from all Antarctic ice shelves, not just the
ones in the Amundsen Sea, increased 12-fold, from six cubic miles to
74 cubic miles per year. "I think it's time for us scientists to
stop being so cautious" about communicating the risks, she says....<br>
The retreat and hemorrhage of these glaciers "will accelerate over
time," agrees Rignot. "Maybe you don't care much about that for the
next 30 to 40 years, but from 2050 to 2100 things could get really
bad, and at that point listening to scientists is irrelevant." Yet
after things get really bad, they could still get worse....<br>
Until recently the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was considered secure;
unlike West Antarctica, it sits on high ground. But mapping with
ice-penetrating radar has revealed a low-lying region cut by
glacially carved channels that drop as far as 8,500 feet below sea
level - perfect for guiding warm ocean water deep into the heart of
the ice sheet. The Totten Glacier is the largest coastal outlet in
this region. If it collapsed, global sea level could rise 13 feet -
"roughly as much as all of West Antarctica," Rignot points out. "One
glacier alone."<br>
"The fuse is lit," says Blankenship. "We're just running around
mapping where all the bombs are."<br>
<i>Writer Douglas Fox has traveled to Antarctica five times and has
spent months on the ice there. This is his first feature for
National Geographic magazine. </i><br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/">http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/</a></font><br>
<br>
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<h2 class="esc-lead-article-title" style="font-size: 16px;
line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-weight:
bold;"><a target="_blank" class="article
usg-AFQjCNG59-8X4NVP4wKnsmVOi3xinBXnPQ
sig2-mcNq4nzWbE3vPRmWV-UAUw did--8394857117491195434"
href="http://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-shrinking-the-colorado-river-76280"
id="MAA4DEgDUABgAWoCdXM" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);
text-decoration: underline;"><span class="titletext"
style="font-weight: bold;"><b style="font-weight: bold;">Climate
change</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>is
shrinking the Colorado River</span></a></h2>
</div>
The nation's two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead on the Arizona/Nevada
border and Lake Powell on the Arizona/Utah border, were brim full in
the year 2000. Four short years later, they had lost enough water to
supply California its legally apportioned share of Colorado River
water for more than five years. Now, 17 years later, they still have
not recovered.<br>
This ongoing, unprecedented event threatens water supplies to Los
Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson, Denver, Salt Lake City,
Albuquerque and some of the most productive agricultural lands
anywhere in the world. It is critical to understand what is causing
it so water managers can make realistic water use and conservation
plans.<br>
While overuse has played a part, a significant portion of the
reservoir decline is due to an ongoing drought, which started in
2000 and has led to substantial reductions in river flows. Most
droughts are caused by a lack of precipitation. However, our
published research shows that about one-third of the flow decline
was likely due to higher temperatures in the Colorado River's Upper
Basin, which result from climate change.<br>
Megadroughts, which last anywhere from 20 to 50 years or more,
provide yet another reason to avoid putting too much faith in
precipitation increases. We know from tree-ring studies going back
to A.D. 800 that megadroughts have occurred previously in the basin.<br>
Several new studies indicate that with warmer temperatures, the
likelihood of megadroughts skyrockets in the 21st century, to a
point where the odds of one occurring are better than 80 percent. So
while we might have periods with average or above-average
precipitation, it also seems likely that we will have decades with
less flow than normal.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-shrinking-the-colorado-river-76280">http://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-shrinking-the-colorado-river-76280</a><br>
<br>
<br>
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<h2 class="esc-lead-article-title" style="font-size: 18px;
line-height: 21px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><a
target="_blank" class="article
usg-AFQjCNF4FQbktPEraZTHeIG-39pzJ2lRwg
sig2-611A1iUx22vEqc12t6KsKA did--4661392312811264673"
href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/vibrio-zika-west-nile-malaria-diseases-spreading-climate-change/"
id="MAA4AEgCUABgAWoCdXN6AA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);
text-decoration: none;"><span class="titletext"
style="font-weight: bold;"><b style="font-weight: bold;">Climate
Change</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Pushing
Tropical Diseases Toward Arctic</span></a></h2>
</div>
"So often so many of the things we talk about with climate change
are 'this is going to be a problem in 2030 or 2050 or 2100,' and it
sounds so far away," says Maloy. "But we're talking about things
where our one-degree centigrade change in temperature is already
enough to affect infections."<br>
Already in Europe, for example, the ticks that carry Lyme disease,
once largely limited to the south, are finding new hosts as far
north as Sweden. Some winters aren't cold enough to kill the young
nymphs, which also allows them to stick around another season. A
similar issue has struck a region near Russia's Ural Mountains,
which has seen a 23-fold increase in tick-borne encephalitis in 20
years. Temperature changes have lengthened the tick season by half
(the same problem is hammering moose). Meanwhile, the sandflies that
host parasites that cause leishmaniasis, some varieties of which
cause skin lesions or spleen and liver damage, are showing up in
north Texas.<br>
"We have clear evidence in many cases things are happening already,
and they're tightly correlated to changes in ambient temperature,
extreme weather, or water temperature," Maloy says.<br>
Before 2004, for example, Alaskan waters were thought to be too cold
to support enough Vibrio to cause disease. But around July 4 that
year, aboard a small cruise ship, several dozen passengers got sick
after eating oysters from the Gulf of Alaska - more than 1,000
kilometers further north than the previous northernmost Vibrio
incident. The waters that summer around the oyster beds were 2
degrees warmer than they'd ever been.<br>
"What's happening here is related to climate change - no question,"
says Jay Grimes, a microbial ecologist at the University of Southern
Mississippi's Gulf Coast Research Laboratory.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/vibrio-zika-west-nile-malaria-diseases-spreading-climate-change/">http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/vibrio-zika-west-nile-malaria-diseases-spreading-climate-change/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
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1px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif;
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initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">
<h2 class="esc-lead-article-title" style="font-size: 16px;
line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-weight:
bold;"><a target="_blank" class="article
usg-AFQjCNEPBkbVxHVTygowfxA9zv0EJBH1uA
sig2-yG_VqUMfXjkaZXitddOqdQ did--7441480292664877105"
href="http://time.com/4813115/paris-agreement-climate-change-trump-green-climate-fund/"
id="MAA4DEgCUABgAWoCdXM" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);
text-decoration: none;"><span class="titletext"
style="font-weight: bold;">How Trump Could Slow<b
style="font-weight: bold;"> Climate Change </b>Projects
Around the World</span></a></h2>
</div>
In addition to pulling out of Paris, which will not take effect
until 2020, Trump has reneged on $2 billion in unpaid commitments to
the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which was created in advance of the
Paris Agreement to support projects to address climate change in the
developing world. Climate finance experts fear it could be a sign of
further cuts to other programs that depend on American resources...<br>
Two billion dollars may sound small in the scheme of international
development, but climate finance experts say such a commitment goes
further than meets the eye. Much of the money would have been used
to help build basic infrastructure necessary to develop clean energy
sources. Other funding would have supported the development of
markets to catalyze private investment. And, because many of the GCF
investments pay returns, money given to the fund would help pay for
more than one project. In total, developed countries committed to
send $100 billion annually in financing to the developing world by
2020. The end of U.S. financial support - and the private investment
it sparks - could threaten that goal.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://time.com/4813115/paris-agreement-climate-change-trump-green-climate-fund/">http://time.com/4813115/paris-agreement-climate-change-trump-green-climate-fund/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
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1px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif;
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initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">
<h2 class="esc-lead-article-title" style="font-size: 16px;
line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><a
target="_blank" class="article
usg-AFQjCNGg47ysXPODNBYXhuDnhDVf3OWVCQ
sig2-c20DoozxSM1aKhu0MKBxOQ did--6325086377449179657"
href="http://www.ucmerced.edu/news/2017/study-wildfires-climate-change-could-make-sierra-polluter"
id="MAA4AEgNUABgAWoCdXN6AA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);
text-decoration: none;"><span class="titletext"
style="font-weight: bold;">Study: Wildfires,<span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b
style="font-weight: bold;">Climate Change</b><span
class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Could Make Sierra a
Polluter</span></a></h2>
</div>
In a paper published recently in Scientific Reports Opens a New
Window. - "Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under
projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada" -
Westerling and collaborators from the University of New Mexico and
Penn State University used three climate models and data from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to examine how rising
global temperatures and increasingly severe wildfires will affect
Sierra Nevada forests.<br>
Their conclusion: Changing conditions will turn today's Sierra
Nevada forests into tomorrow's greenhouse gas emitters.<br>
"Forests play an important part in regulating the levels of
atmospheric carbon," Westerling explained. "Forests are carbon
sinks, essentially giant stockpiles of carbon. Forests are also
active carbon consumers. They remove carbon dioxide from the air and
convert it into biomass. This traps the carbon, which is no longer
free to act as a greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.ucmerced.edu/news/2017/study-wildfires-climate-change-could-make-sierra-polluter">http://www.ucmerced.edu/news/2017/study-wildfires-climate-change-could-make-sierra-polluter</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
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1px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif;
font-size: 13.44px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
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initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">
<h2 class="esc-lead-article-title" style="font-size: 16px;
line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-weight:
bold;"><a target="_blank" class="article
usg-AFQjCNFRtvmlvPGKaOQ48PvMbfnlWK2y3A
sig2-9irO9_3ixE_9g64hGnNezw did-8286994578729261000"
href="http://www.salon.com/2017/06/14/donald-trump-to-mayor-of-island-sinking-due-to-climate-change-dont-worry-about-it/"
id="MAA4DEgGUABgAWoCdXM" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);
text-decoration: underline;"><span class="titletext"
style="font-weight: bold;">Donald Trump to mayor of island
sinking due to<b style="font-weight: bold;">climate change</b>:
Don't worry about it!</span></a></h2>
</div>
Despite scientists saying climate change has caused the island to
shrink both Trump and the mayor want to ignore it<br>
After President Donald Trump watched a story aired on CNN - a
network he says he never watches - which detailed the devastating
impact climate change has had on a small island in the Chesapeake
Bay, he called the mayor of the island to inform him that everything
would be just fine.<br>
Virginia's Tangier Island is shrinking at a rate of 15 feet each
year, the Washington Post noted, and the Army Corps of Engineers has
said the cause is from "coastal erosion and rising sea levels." But
that wasn't enough to convince the president, or even the island's
Mayor James Eskridge.<br>
"Donald Trump, if you see this, whatever you can do, we welcome any
help you can give us," Eskridge told CNN. "I love Trump as much as
any family member I got."<br>
Eskridge got his wish, and the president gave him a call.<br>
"He said we shouldn't worry about rising sea levels," Eskridge told
the Post. "<b>He said that 'your island has been there for hundreds
of years, and I believe your island will be there for hundreds
more."</b><br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.salon.com/2017/06/14/donald-trump-to-mayor-of-island-sinking-due-to-climate-change-dont-worry-about-it/">http://www.salon.com/2017/06/14/donald-trump-to-mayor-of-island-sinking-due-to-climate-change-dont-worry-about-it/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/us/politics/16obama.html?pagewanted=all">This
Day in Climate History June 15, 2010</a> - from D.R.
Tucker<br>
</b>In an address from the Oval Office, President Obama
declares:<br>
</font></font>
<blockquote>"For decades, we have known the days of cheap and easily
accessible oil were numbered. For decades, we’ve talked and
talked about the need to end America’s century-long addiction to
fossil fuels. And for decades, we have failed to act with the
sense of urgency that this challenge requires. Time and again,
the path forward has been blocked -- not only by oil industry
lobbyists, but also by a lack of political courage and candor. <br>
"The consequences of our inaction are now in plain sight.
Countries like China are investing in clean energy jobs and
industries that should be right here in America. Each day, we
send nearly $1 billion of our wealth to foreign countries for
their oil. And today, as we look to the Gulf, we see an entire
way of life being threatened by a menacing cloud of black crude.<br>
<br>
"We cannot consign our children to this future. The tragedy
unfolding on our coast is the most painful and powerful reminder
yet that the time to embrace a clean energy future is now. Now is
the moment for this generation to embark on a national mission to
unleash America’s innovation and seize control of our own destiny.<br>
<br>
"This is not some distant vision for America. The transition away
from fossil fuels is going to take some time, but over the last
year and a half, we’ve already taken unprecedented action to
jumpstart the clean energy industry. As we speak, old factories
are reopening to produce wind turbines, people are going back to
work installing energy-efficient windows, and small businesses are
making solar panels. <br>
<br>
"Consumers are buying more efficient cars and trucks, and families
are making their homes more energy-efficient. Scientists and
researchers are discovering clean energy technologies that someday
will lead to entire new industries. <br>
<br>
"Each of us has a part to play in a new future that will benefit
all of us. As we recover from this recession, the transition to
clean energy has the potential to grow our economy and create
millions of jobs -– but only if we accelerate that transition.
Only if we seize the moment. And only if we rally together and
act as one nation –- workers and entrepreneurs; scientists and
citizens; the public and private sectors. <br>
"When I was a candidate for this office, I laid out a set of
principles that would move our country towards energy
independence. Last year, the House of Representatives acted on
these principles by passing a strong and comprehensive energy and
climate bill –- a bill that finally makes clean energy the
profitable kind of energy for America’s businesses. <br>
<br>
"Now, there are costs associated with this transition. And there
are some who believe that we can’t afford those costs right now.
I say we can’t afford not to change how we produce and use energy
-– because the long-term costs to our economy, our national
security, and our environment are far greater. <br>
"So I’m happy to look at other ideas and approaches from either
party -– as long they seriously tackle our addiction to fossil
fuels. Some have suggested raising efficiency standards in our
buildings like we did in our cars and trucks. Some believe we
should set standards to ensure that more of our electricity comes
from wind and solar power. Others wonder why the energy industry
only spends a fraction of what the high-tech industry does on
research and development -– and want to rapidly boost our
investments in such research and development. <br>
<br>
"All of these approaches have merit, and deserve a fair hearing in
the months ahead. But the one approach I will not accept is
inaction. The one answer I will not settle for is the idea that
this challenge is somehow too big and too difficult to meet. You
know, the same thing was said about our ability to produce enough
planes and tanks in World War II. The same thing was said about
our ability to harness the science and technology to land a man
safely on the surface of the moon. And yet, time and again, we
have refused to settle for the paltry limits of conventional
wisdom. Instead, what has defined us as a nation since our
founding is the capacity to shape our destiny -– our determination
to fight for the America we want for our children. Even if we’re
unsure exactly what that looks like. Even if we don’t yet know
precisely how we’re going to get there. We know we’ll get there."<br>
<font color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJW4_FvVKo">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJW4_FvVKo</a> </font><br>
<font color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/us/politics/16obama.html?pagewanted=all">http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/us/politics/16obama.html?pagewanted=all</a>
</font><br>
</blockquote>
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