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<font size="+1"><i>July 6, 2017</i></font><br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/05/hopes-of-mild-climate-change-dashed-by-new-research">Hopes
of mild climate change dashed by new research</a></b><br>
Planet could heat up far more than hoped as new work shows
temperature rises measured over recent decades don't fully reflect
global warming already in the pipeline<br>
Hopes that the world's huge carbon emissions might not drive
temperatures up to dangerous levels have been dashed by new
research.<br>
The work shows that temperature rises measured over recent decades
do not fully reflect the global warming already in the pipeline and
that the ultimate heating of the planet could be even worse than
feared.<br>
How much global temperatures rise for a certain level of carbon
emissions is called climate sensitivity and is seen as the single
most important measure of climate change. Computer models have long
indicated a high level of sensitivity, up to 4.5C for a doubling of
CO2 in the atmosphere...<br>
"There was this wave of optimism."<br>
The new research, published in the journal Science Advances, has
ended that. "The worrisome part is that all the models show there is
an amplification of the amount of warming in the future," he said.
The situation might be even worse, as Proistosescu's work shows
climate sensitivity could be as high as 6C.<br>
Prof Bill Collins, at the University of Reading, UK, and not part of
the new research, said: "Some have suggested that we might be lucky
and avoid dangerous climate change without taking determined action
if the climate is not very sensitive to CO2 emissions. This work
provides new evidence that that chance is remote." He said greater
long term warming had implications for melting of the world's ice
sheets and the rise of sea levels that already threatens many
coastal cities.<br>
The new research shows the 4.5C upper limit for climate sensitivity
is real and means projections for global temperature rises cannot be
reduced. The global temperature is likely to be 2.6C to 4.8C higher
by the end of the century if emissions are not cut, according to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or 0.3C to 1.7C if sharp
emissions cuts begin in the next few years.<br>
Reconciling all the estimates of climate sensitivity has also shown
that climate models are not flawed.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/05/hopes-of-mild-climate-change-dashed-by-new-research">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/05/hopes-of-mild-climate-change-dashed-by-new-research</a></font><br>
-also:<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821">Slow
climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of
climate sensitivity</a><br>
Abstract<br>
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment
Report widened the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) range from
2° to 4.5°C to an updated range of 1.5° to 4.5°C in order to account
for the lack of consensus between estimates based on models and
historical observations. The historical ECS estimates range from
1.5° to 3°C and are derived assuming a linear radiative response to
warming. A Bayesian methodology applied to 24 models, however,
documents curvature in the radiative response to warming from an
evolving contribution of interannual to centennial modes of
radiative response. Centennial modes display stronger amplifying
feedbacks and ultimately contribute 28 to 68% (90% credible
interval) of equilibrium warming, yet they comprise only 1 to 7% of
current warming. Accounting for these unresolved centennial
contributions brings historical records into agreement with
model-derived ECS estimates.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821">http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821</a></font><br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/climate/g20-climate-change-paris-accord-trump-merkel-germany.html?_r=0"><br>
<b>Trump May Find Some Allies on Climate Change at G-20 Meeting</b></a><br>
Western European efforts to isolate President Trump for rejecting
the Paris climate change agreement appear to be faltering as leaders
gather for a summit meeting in Hamburg, Germany, at the end of the
week.<br>
The gulf between Mr. Trump's worldview and that of most European
leaders on topics from trade to immigration will be on display in
the coming days. But nowhere is the difference as stark as it is on
climate change, which Mr. Trump has mocked as a hoax....<br>
In recent days, however, those aiming to isolate the United States
on climate issues have softened their language to say they hope an
"overwhelming majority" embrace the Paris agreement. Saudi Arabia
has indicated it is unlikely to climb on board and Russia, Turkey
and Indonesia are sending mixed signals about how forcefully they
will declare their support for the Paris deal.<br>
Saudi Arabia is a wild card. Fresh off a $500 million arms deal with
the United States that narrowly escaped Senate opposition, the
Saudis are eager to keep Mr. Trump's support for the kingdom's
crackdown against Qatar. Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest
per capita emitters of planet-warming emissions, has always been a
reluctant participant in climate discussions.<br>
Conservatives in the United States say Europeans should know by now
that goading Mr. Trump is likely to fail.<br>
"It's like trying to poke a bear," said Nicolas Loris, a research
fellow in energy and environmental policy at the Heritage
Foundation. "President Trump will stick to his convictions. I don't
think any type of pressure from Merkel or any of the other 19
countries is going to change that.".<font size="-1" color="#666666"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/climate/g20-climate-change-paris-accord-trump-merkel-germany.html?_r=0">https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/climate/g20-climate-change-paris-accord-trump-merkel-germany.html?_r=0</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.space.com/37169-climate-change-effects-earth.html">See
the Effects of Climate Change Across Earth (Video)</a></b><br>
A new video from the European Space Agency explains how changes in
climate are causing sea levels to rise around the world.<br>
There are three main causes for this change in global sea level,
according to the video: thermal expansion of oceans, the melting of
ice sheets and glaciers, and changes in land-water storage. The
agency uses satellite data to measure how much each of these
individual components attributes to the sea level increase.<br>
Meltwater from glaciers accounts for about a 6.6 millimeter (0.26
inches) sea level rise every decade, the video says, which accounts
for 20 percent of the total change between 2003 and 2013.
Greenland's ice sheet accounts for 8.3 millimeters (0.33 inches), or
about 25 percent of the total, while the Antarctic ice sheet
contributes 3.6 millimeters (0.14 inches) or 11 percent of the
decade total. Changes in land-water storage (such as lakes)
contribute 3.3 millimeters (0.13 inches) or 10 percent, and ocean
thermal expansion adds 9.9 millimeters (0.39 inches) or 30 percent.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.space.com/37169-climate-change-effects-earth.html">https://www.space.com/37169-climate-change-effects-earth.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.voanews.com/a/appeals-court-rules-against-epa-in-methane-gas-regulations/3927244.html">Appeals
Court Rules Against EPA in Methane Gas Regulations </a></b><br>
A U.S. federal appeals court ruled Monday that Environmental
Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt lacks the authority to suspend
rules that oil and gas companies monitor and fix methane gas leaks.<br>
Two of the three judges on the panel wrote that an order delaying
such a rule is the same thing as revoking it.<br>
Pruitt said in April he wanted to put its enforcement on hold for 90
days, later saying he wanted to extend it for two years.<br>
He argued that oil and gas companies are already monitoring methane
leaks and that the federal regulations would make some wells
unprofitable.<br>
No comment from EPA<br>
Several environmental groups sued to stop Pruitt.<br>
"This ruling … slams the brakes on the Trump administration's brazen
efforts to put the interests of corporate polluters ahead of
protecting the public and the environment," National Resources
Defense Council official David Doniger said. This was one of the
groups that sued to stop the EPA.<br>
An EPA spokeswoman said the agency is studying the court decision
and had no other comment.<br>
Methane emanating from natural gas production is a major contributor
to global warming.<br>
A first for Trump<br>
This is the first court decision to go against Trump administration
efforts to overturn or block rules and executive orders it believes
are unfair to the fossil fuel industry.<br>
Pruitt has joined the White House in arguing that tough regulations
hurt industry and jobs as the U.S. strives to become more energy
independent — an effort it says must include oil, gas and coal
production, along with renewable resources.<br>
Environmentalists say overturning such rules gives industry a blank
check to ignore laws protecting the air and streams from pollution.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.voanews.com/a/appeals-court-rules-against-epa-in-methane-gas-regulations/3927244.html">https://www.voanews.com/a/appeals-court-rules-against-epa-in-methane-gas-regulations/3927244.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-africa-sahel-idUSKBN19Q2WK">Climate
change may turn Africa's arid Sahel green: researchers</a></b><br>
LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - One of Africa's driest regions
- the Sahel - could turn greener if the planet warms more than 2
degrees Celsius and triggers more frequent heavy rainfall,
scientists said on Wednesday.<br>
The Sahel stretches coast to coast from Mauritania and Mali in the
west to Sudan and Eritrea in the east, and skirts the southern edge
of the Sahara desert. It is home to more than 100 million people...<br>
The study was published on Wednesday in Earth System Dynamics, a
journal of the European Geosciences Union.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-africa-sahel-idUSKBN19Q2WK">https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-africa-sahel-idUSKBN19Q2WK</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/berg-acceleration/">Larsen
C iceberg accelerates ahead of calving</a></b><br>
by Martin O'Leary, Adrian Luckman and Project MIDAS<br>
In another sign that the iceberg calving is imminent, the
soon-to-be-iceberg part of Larsen C Ice Shelf has tripled in speed
to more than ten meters per day between 24th and 27th June 2017. The
iceberg remains attached to the ice shelf, but its outer end is
moving at the highest speed ever recorded on this ice shelf. We
still can't tell when calving will occur - it could be hours, days
or weeks - but this is a notable departure from previous
observations.<br>
News of the Larsen C Iceberg calving<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/berg-acceleration/">http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/berg-acceleration/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://twitter.com/AntarcticReport">https://twitter.com/AntarcticReport</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://twitter.com/MIDASOnIce?lang=en">https://twitter.com/MIDASOnIce?lang=en</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://twitter.com/AntarcticReport/status/882565756113698820">https://twitter.com/AntarcticReport/status/882565756113698820</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/07/05/During-record-heat-wave-major-TV-stations-in-Phoenix-and-Las-Vegas-completely-ignored-the-/217141">Media
Matters has a new study out today about coverage of the
Southwest heat wave in relation to climate change. </a></b><br>
<b>During record heat wave, major TV stations in Phoenix and Las
Vegas completely ignored the impact of climate change</b><br>
The stations did not mention a new study connecting global warming
to extreme heat, but found time to discuss climate change's impact
on coffee<br>
Phoenix and Las Vegas affiliates ignored alarming study about
climate change's impact on extreme heat, despite experiencing a
record heat wave<br>
For more than a week in late June, much of the Southwest was hit by
a brutal heat wave. In Phoenix, temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees
above average and new temperature records were set for three days in
a row from June 19 to 21, reaching as high as 119 degrees. Dozens of
flights had to be canceled after higher temperatures made it harder
for certain types of small planes to take off. Las Vegas saw similar
record-breaking daily temperatures and tied its all-time high
temperature record of 117 degrees on June 20.<br>
The heat wave overlapped with the publication of an alarming new
study on June 19 in the journal Nature Climate Change that found
that, because of climate change, almost a third of the world's
population faces deadly heat waves at least 20 days a year -- and
that more than twice that percentage could experience the same by
2100. In his article on the study's findings, Seth Borenstein of The
Associated Press connected the study to the heat wave in the
Southwest:<br>
<b>Phoenix and Las Vegas affiliate stations also failed to mention
global warming's impact on heat waves generally -- and in one
instance downplayed the connection </b><br>
The heat wave afflicting the Southwest was the sort of previously
rare extreme phenomenon that global warming is making more common...<br>
Yet over the eight-day time period Media Matters examined, none of
the network affiliates based in Phoenix or Las Vegas explained that
climate change exacerbates heat waves.<br>
We also found that the local affiliates ignored a new study that
found one-third of the global population already faces deadly heat
waves for at least 20 days a year due to climate change, yet they
aired segments focused on on a study about how climate change could
affect the flavor of coffee (even though the studies were published
on the same day). <br>
<div style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;
text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.66) 0px 0px
0px !important;"><a
href="https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/07/05/During-record-heat-wave-major-TV-stations-in-Phoenix-and-Las-Vegas-completely-ignored-the-/217141"
target="_blank"
data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/07/05/During-record-heat-wave-major-TV-stations-in-Phoenix-and-Las-Vegas-completely-ignored-the-/217141&source=gmail&ust=1499356888535000&usg=AFQjCNHmfDFJQSEnZcUXxU-U65JL6aAXhw"
style="text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.66)
0px 0px 0px !important; color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">https://www.mediamatters.org/<wbr
style="text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0,
0.66) 0px 0px 0px !important;">blog/2017/07/05/During-record-<wbr
style="text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0,
0.66) 0px 0px 0px !important;">heat-wave-major-TV-stations-<wbr
style="text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0,
0.66) 0px 0px 0px !important;">in-Phoenix-and-Las-Vegas-<wbr
style="text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0,
0.66) 0px 0px 0px !important;">completely-ignored-the-/217141</a></div>
<div style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;
text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.66) 0px 0px
0px !important;"><a
href="https://twitter.com/kkMMFA/status/882627478031880192"
target="_blank"
data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://twitter.com/kkMMFA/status/882627478031880192&source=gmail&ust=1499356888535000&usg=AFQjCNEltdh2WIFOfVQkT_vhLuwWkBgx0g"
style="text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.66)
0px 0px 0px !important; color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">https://twitter.com/kkMMFA/<wbr
style="text-shadow: transparent 0px 0px 0px, rgba(0, 0, 0,
0.66) 0px 0px 0px !important;">status/882627478031880192</a></div>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/07/science/earth/antarctic-crack.html?_r=1">A
Crack in an Antarctic Ice Shelf</a></b><br>
Grew 17 Miles in the Last Two Months<br>
By JUGAL K. PATEL FEB. 7, 2017<br>
A rapidly advancing crack in Antarctica's fourth-largest ice shelf
has scientists concerned that it is getting close to a full break.
The rift has accelerated this year in an area already vulnerable to
warming temperatures. Since December, the crack has grown by the
length of about five football fields each day.<br>
If the ice shelf breaks at the crack, Larsen C will be at its
smallest size ever recorded...<br>
That would also leave the ice front much closer to the ice shelf's
compressive arch, a line that scientists say is critical for
structural support. If the front retreats past that line, scientists
say, the northernmost part of the shelf could collapse within
months. It could also significantly change the landscape of the
Antarctic peninsula.<br>
"At that point in time, the glaciers will react," said Eric J.
Rignot, a glaciologist, professor at University of California Irvine
and a senior scientist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "If
the ice shelf breaks apart, it will remove a buttressing force on
the glaciers that flow into it. The glaciers will feel less
resistance to flow, effectively removing a cork in front of them."<br>
According to Dr. Rignot, the collapse of Larsen C would add only a
tiny amount of water to the global sea level. Of greater concern to
scientists is how the collapse of ice shelves can affect the
glaciers that flow behind them, because the melting of those
glaciers can cause much higher levels of ocean rise. Scientists see
the impending Larsen C collapse as a warning that much larger
amounts of ice in West Antarctica could be vulnerable.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/07/science/earth/antarctic-crack.html?_r=1">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/07/science/earth/antarctic-crack.html?_r=1</a><br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html"><br>
</a><font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html">This
Day in Climate History July 6, 2010</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
<font size="+1">July 6, 2010: Washington Post writer Ezra Klein
observes:<br>
"There's a range of likely outcomes from a tax on carbon, and we
can handle most of them. There's also a range of outcomes from
radical changes in the planet's climate, and we've really no idea
which we can handle, and which we can't. We don't even really know
what that range looks like. And although a tax can be undone or
reformed, there's no guarantee that we can reverse hundreds of
years of rapid greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere. If you
want proof, look at our inability to deal with an underwater oil
spill, and consider how much more experience we have repairing oil
rigs than reversing concentrations of gases in the atmosphere.<br>
"One of the oddities of the global warming debate, in fact, is
that the side that's usually skeptical of government intervention
is potentially setting up a future in which the government is
intervening on a planetary scale. I don't think of myself as
particularly skeptical of the feds, but I'm a lot more comfortable
with their ability to levy a tax than their capacity to reform the
atmosphere. That's why, when faced with the choice between being
risk averse about a tax or about the planet, I tend to choose the
planet."<br>
</font><font color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html">http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html</a></font><font
size="+1"><br>
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