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<font size="+1"><i>July 13, 2017</i></font><br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDXr98pt0bg">(video 5 min)
Larsen C Ice Sheet Breaks Off. What Next?</a></b><br>
It was inevitable ... a question not of If, but of When. Now that
the Delaware-size iceberg has calved, scientists begin to explore
what comes next. (Also read more at YaleClimateConnections.org)<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDXr98pt0bg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDXr98pt0bg</a></font><br>
-more:<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/calving/">Larsen C calves
trillion ton iceberg</a></b><br>
A one trillion tonne iceberg – one of the biggest ever recorded -
has calved away from the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica. The
calving occurred sometime between Monday 10th July and Wednesday
12th July 2017, when a 5,800 square km section of Larsen C finally
broke away. The iceberg, which is likely to be named A68, weighs
more than a trillion tonnes. Its volume is twice that of Lake Erie,
one of the Great Lakes.<br>
Map of Larsen C, overlaid with NASA MODIS thermal image from July 12
2017, showing the iceberg has calved<br>
The final breakthrough was detected in data from NASA's Aqua MODIS
satellite instrument, which images in the thermal infrared at a
resolution of 1km, and confirmed by NASA's Suomi VIIRS instrument.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/calving/">http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/calving/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/885101922549727232">https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/885101922549727232</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://twitter.com/simon_rp84/status/885098754671620099">https://twitter.com/simon_rp84/status/885098754671620099</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/events/larsen-c-ice-shelf-calving-and-retreat-2017">http://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/events/larsen-c-ice-shelf-calving-and-retreat-2017</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_ENCC,Coastlines&t=2017-07-12&z=3&v=-2570154.5783290304,937557.1566580613,-1783722.5783290304,1313877.1566580613">https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_ENCC,Coastlines&t=2017-07-12&z=3&v=-2570154.5783290304,937557.1566580613,-1783722.5783290304,1313877.1566580613</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/want-to-fight-climate-change-have-fewer-children">Want
to fight climate change? Have fewer children</a></b><br>
Next best actions are selling your car, avoiding flights and going
vegetarian, according to study into true impacts of different green
lifestyle choices<br>
Overpopulation has been a controversial factor in the climate change
debate, with some pointing out that an American is responsible for
40 times the emissions produced by a Bangladeshi and that
overconsumption is the crucial issue. The new research comes a day
after researchers blamed overpopulation and overconsumption on the
"biological annihilation" of wildlife which has started a mass
extinction of species on the planet.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/want-to-fight-climate-change-have-fewer-children">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/want-to-fight-climate-change-have-fewer-children</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a href="http://evidencesquared.com/ep17/">Robert Mac on secrets
of comedy</a></b><br>
In our new podcast episode, stand-up comedian Robert Mac gives a
master class on comedy and story-telling, explaining how to
show-don't-tell, lay breadcrumbs, funnel your stories from wide to
narrow, and understand your audience.<br>
<a href="https://youtu.be/ASKDgH8SKxw">Video Robert Mac interview,
part 1 </a><br>
Richard Pauli's comment:<br>
A man sentenced to hang, slowly steps up the gallows, as the hangman
puts the noose around his neck, he says "Gee I wish I had a good
global warming joke."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://evidencesquared.com/ep17/">http://evidencesquared.com/ep17/</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/ASKDgH8SKxw">https://youtu.be/ASKDgH8SKxw</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/scientist-michael-mann-on-climate-scenarios.html">
<b>Scientist Michael Mann on 'Low-Probability But Catastrophic'
Climate Scenarios</b></a><br>
Shortly after this week's cover story was published, Mann took to
Facebook to voice some criticism of it - primarily about its
framing, which he described as counterproductively "doomist."
Personally, I don't think we're doomed, just facing down a very big
challenge. But I own up to the alarmism in the story, which I
describe as an effort to survey the worst-case-scenario climate
landscape. We have suffered from a terrible failure of imagination
when it comes to climate change, I argue, and that is in part
because most of us do not understand the real risks and horrors that
warming can bring, especially with unabated carbon emissions. For
the sake of clarity: I do not believe that the planet will become
uninhabitable in 2100. As I write in the story, our complacency will
surely be shaken before we get there. But I do believe that it is
important to contemplate the possibility that parts of the tropics
and equator will become cripplingly hot, for instance, or that our
agriculture will suffer huge losses, so that we may be motivated to
take action before we get to those eventualities. And I do believe
that, absent a significant change in human behavior across the
globe, they are plausible eventualities.<br>
Mann also took issue with a few particular points of science. He
stressed that the danger of the carbon frozen in the arctic
permafrost was not a "game-changing arctic methane time bomb" and,
separately, he suggested that the recent upward revision to a
particular satellite data set on warming was less significant than I
made it out to be. My purpose in raising the permafrost issue was to
illustrate how uncertain much of our current modeling can be, not to
suggest a sudden methane release would be the major cause of
devastating warming: I based none of the warming scenarios described
in the piece on a dramatic methane release effect but rather on the
high end of the IPCC's business-as-usual estimate, which gave a
roughly 5 percent chance of our hitting eight degrees of warming by
2100. Regarding the data set, I grant that the upward revision may
have been less meaningful to the scientists close to the data, who
understood it as a revision toward expectations, than it was to
journalists covering the development from afar, who focused on the
fact of the revision itself.<br>
That seems like to me a really scary and also quite underappreciated
by the broader public, the effect on food.<br>
No, absolutely. Food, water, land, you know? The basic resources
that we rely upon. All of them are adversely impacted by climate
change and with a growing global population. So you've got more
competition over fewer resources among a growing global population.
It's a recipe for a conflict nightmare. And this is why when you
talk to national-security experts, many of them will tell you that
climate change may be the greatest security threat we face in the
years ahead, it's what they call a threat multiplier. It heightens
existing tensions, it heightens conflict, especially when you're
talking about more competition for fewer resources. And
interestingly enough, and this is not actually that widely
appreciated, this is sort of a dystopian scenario that Hollywood
imagined decades ago. The movie Soylent Green, with Charlton Heston
- if you watch the very beginning of the movie, it's briefly
mentioned, but the underlying cause of that dystopian future is
global warming, is climate change. So there was - it was sort of an
oddly prescient, some of these early-'70s dystopian novels and films
and Soylent Green foresaw exactly the sort of future that we're
talking about where climate change leads to decreased resources. In
that case, it was about food for a growing global population, and
it's a dystopian future. A worst-case scenario - a worst-case future
does not look that different from the dystopian visions that
Hollywood has already provided us...<br>
It's really interesting to me to think that in the '70s we were
starting to get an understanding that the climate was warming, <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/scientist-michael-mann-on-climate-scenarios.html">http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/scientist-michael-mann-on-climate-scenarios.html</a></font><br>
<b><br>
<br>
</b><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://gothamist.com/2017/07/10/climate_change_ny_mag.php">
Are Humans Doomed? A Q and A With The Author Of NY Mag's
Terrifying Climate Change Story</a></b><br>
I guess my first question is, is there any hope?<br>
Oh, I would say there's quite a lot of hope. The conceit of the
piece was to survey worst case scenarios in order to ultimately
motivate people to action. But one of the things that I worried
about as I put it together was that readers would have a fatalistic
response to it and I don't really think that that's appropriate. At
some point in the piece, I talk about almost all of the damage that
we've done to the planet, in the sense that global warming has
occurred over the course of the lifespan of the Greatest Generation.
So ultimately, I think, this could be as short a story as a story of
two generations. But at the very least we have another lifespan to
figure it out, and to take the necessary actions to forestall at
least the gruesome worst case scenarios that I sketched out in the
piece....<br>
It's interesting, it's something that a handful of scientists that I
talked to in researching and reporting this piece mentioned to me,
the risk that alarmism would lead to fatalism. While basically
everybody that I talked to was on board with the idea that the
public should be more scared than they are and should know more
about these fears than they do, a number of them also expressed that
reservation to me. Since the piece has come out, a couple of them
and a couple of scientists I didn't speak to have said similar
things on Twitter and elsewhere.<br>
First of all, I should say, I'm going to be publishing a bunch of
interviews with some of these scientists over the course of the
week. They're interesting in their own right, and they're all
fascinating, interesting people. I stand in awe of all of them. But
my feeling all along, as a civilian, as an amateur observer of this
issue, it didn't seem plausible to me that there was more risk at
scaring people too much than there was at not scaring them enough. I
may be in a little bubble, and the people I talked to may have a
very different reaction to the public at large, and it's possible
that some of these scientists are right and people will shut down.
But my feeling was, and is, if there's a one percent chance that
we've set off a chain reaction that could end the human race, then
that should be something that the public knows and thinks about.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://gothamist.com/2017/07/10/climate_change_ny_mag.php">http://gothamist.com/2017/07/10/climate_change_ny_mag.php</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/what-mass-extinctions-teach-us-about-climate-change-today.html">'The
Models Are Too Conservative': Paleontologist Peter Ward on What
Past Mass Extinctions Can Teach Us About Climate Change Today</a></b><br>
By David Wallace-Wells<br>
People always think the intensity of a mass extinction should be
related to the extinction - what percentage of creatures were
extinct. Increasingly, we're thinking that's a metric, but a more
important metric that tells you something about the nature of the
devastation is how different is the fauna that comes afterward.<br>
I think people really don't appreciate how much, over the coming
decades, nature will be at war with the way that we live.<br>
Absolutely. Absolutely. Look at the storms that are taking place
now. You talk about habitability. I've been talking about heat. At
what point do hurricanes in the tropics make living there just not
worth it? You're being mowed down by these huge number of tornadoes.
Sooner or later people are going to get the hell out of Dodge. But
this is the sort of storm ferocity that's coming.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/what-mass-extinctions-teach-us-about-climate-change-today.html">http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/what-mass-extinctions-teach-us-about-climate-change-today.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/4">
<font size="+1"><b>Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a
global temperature increase of four degrees and its
implications</b></font></a><br>
Mark New<br>
Published 29 November 2010 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0304<br>
The idea of an international symposium focused on 'Four degrees and
beyond' germinated in late 2008 after discussions with colleagues
who were concerned that there was a large gap between the emerging
policy target of keeping global warming below two degrees and some
of the emissions-reduction scenarios that were being proposed in
both the academic and policy literature. Many emissions-policy
scenarios had (i) underestimated the rate of increase of emissions
in the last decade and (ii) been unrealistically optimistic about
when global emissions might peak, given the time it takes to
transition out of carbon-based energy systems. A pessimistic, or
some might say realistic, appraisal of the slow progress of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
process, also suggested that avoiding two degrees would be highly
unlikely, and that the chances of warming by four degrees in this
century much less unlikely than previously thought. At the same
time, the Oxford-based author Mark Lynas had just published his book
'Six degrees: our future on a hotter planet', and he had often
commented on the scarcity of any scientific literature on the nature
and impacts of climate changes larger than four degrees...<br>
So, the Four degrees and beyond conference took place in September
2009, where we asked participants to specifically address the
questions of (i) how probable a warming of four degrees or higher
might be, (ii) what the consequences of such a warming might be for
ecosystems and society, (iii) how to adapt to such large changes,
and (iv) how to keep the risk of high-end climate change as low as
possible.<br>
..The papers in this issue that look at impacts and adaptation
challenges in a four degrees world are sobering: the possible
impacts are large, in some cases, transformational, and the
challenges in understanding and developing responses to these
impacts considerable. Hopefully, this Theme Issue will stimulate
much-needed further research that explores the implications of and
solutions to high-end climate warming.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/4">http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/4</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://floodlist.com/">FloodList
UN – 1995 to 2015, Flood Disasters Affected 2.3 Billion and
Killed 157,000</a></b><br>
The European Environment Agency recently published a report on
flooding in Europe, "Floodplain management: reducing flood risks and
restoring healthy ecosystems", where researchers examined data on
floods dating from 1980 to 2010, and found significant increases in
flooding – which will only get worse as time goes on.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://floodlist.com/">http://floodlist.com/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/doomsday-scenarios-are-as-harmful-as-climate-change-denial/2017/07/12/880ed002-6714-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html">Opinion
Doomsday scenarios are as harmful as climate change denial</a><br>
It is important to communicate both the threat and the opportunity
in the climate challenge. Those paying attention are worried, and
should be, but there are also reasons for hope. The active
engagement of many cities, states and corporations, and the
commitments of virtually every nation (minus one) is a very hopeful
sign. <br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/doomsday-scenarios-are-as-harmful-as-climate-change-denial/2017/07/12/880ed002-6714-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/doomsday-scenarios-are-as-harmful-as-climate-change-denial/2017/07/12/880ed002-6714-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://inthesetimes.com/article/20321/climate-change-right-wing-religion-environmentalism">(opinion)
The Right Calls Climate Change a Leap of Faith. But Denial Is a
Leap into the Abyss.</a></b><br>
To prevent the kind of runaway warming that will unravel human
civilization, we're left with two options: sharp and immediate
reductions in our carbon emissions, or a game-changing technological
solution at some future point, such as capturing carbon and storing
it underground. More or less by default, we're betting "our
collective future on being able to bury millions of tons of carbon,"
as David Roberts notes in Vox.<br>
The Right is correct that it requires an element of faith to accept
such facts, since most of us don't have the expertise or resources
to verify them. But the alternatives involve a much greater leap of
faith, and land us on wild theories about the total incompetence of
climate scientists or a global, leftist conspiracy that has
successfully duped the entire world, save for one political movement
and one political party in the United States.<br>
There is a priceless, disquieting passage in which Jesus says that
whoever eats his flesh and drinks his blood "remains in me, and I in
him." To which, as the account has it, his disciples replied, "This
is a difficult teaching. Who can accept it?" Many of them then
abandoned him. And not without reason-a lot of what he said sounded
pretty much insane. Taking him seriously would raise basic questions
about our ways of being the world, and would force a revolution in
our ways of relating to one another and sharing resources...<br>
The same is true of climate change. At its core, there is a teaching
as difficult as that of prophets and revolutionaries, and no less
difficult to get your mind around. We face a crisis that demands a
revolution in our traditional ways of thinking-a conversion, if you
will. The stakes may not be eternal life, but they are substantial:
life on this planet for this species, and for the millions of other
species whose fate depends on our behavior and choices. These things
are true. They demand action and focus. Whether we're up to that
challenge is another matter...<br>
You can say that the idea that carbon emissions will destroy human
civilization is a secular substitute for sin, as Michael Crichton
thought. Really, it's just a matter of physics that presents us with
the most fearsome spiritual challenge of all: Not whether a divine
being will transform and save our souls, but whether we can find the
political imagination and will to transform and save ourselves. <br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://inthesetimes.com/article/20321/climate-change-right-wing-religion-environmentalism">http://inthesetimes.com/article/20321/climate-change-right-wing-religion-environmentalism</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2008/07/13/26102/schwarzenegger-bush-2/">This
Day in Climate History July 13, 2008 </a>- from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
<font size="+1">July 13, 2008: In an interview with ABC's George
Stephanopoulos, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger denounces
the Bush administration's stubborn refusal to recognize the risk
of human-caused climate change.<br>
</font><font color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2008/07/13/26102/schwarzenegger-bush-2/">http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2008/07/13/26102/schwarzenegger-bush-2/</a></font><font
size="+1"><i><br>
<br>
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