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<font size="+1"><i>July 19, 2017</i></font><br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2017/07/18/young-peoples-burden-requirement-of-negative-co2-emissions/">Young
People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions</a></b></font><br>
Hansen, et al<br>
Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions is
available <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2017/20170718_BurdenCommunication.pdf">here
in pdf</a><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2017/20170718_BurdenCommunication.pdf">
</a>format, <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/">on my web site,</a> and <a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/blog/">on
our blog.</a><br>
Above paper is published today in Earth System Dynamics. There is
also a video with Sophie and Jim.<br>
Conclusions include:<br>
1. Global warming in the past 50 years has raised global temperature
(Fig. 1) well above the prior range in the Holocene (the current
interglacial period, approximately the past 11,700 years) to the
level of the Eemian period (130,000 to 115,000 years ago), when sea
level was 6-9 meters (20-30 feet) higher than today.<br>
2. Global warming can be held below 1.5°C (the aspirational goal of
the Paris Agreement) if rapid reductions of global CO2 emission (at
least 3%/year) begin by 2021 and if there is no net growth of other
climate forcings (Fig. 2). However, 1.5°C global warming exceeds
estimated Eemian temperature and is not an appropriate goal.<br>
3. The growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated
markedly in the past several years (Fig. 3), a conclusion starkly at
odds with the common narrative that the world has recently turned
the corner toward a solution of the global warming problem.<br>
4. An appropriate goal is to return global temperature to the
Holocene range within a century. Such a goal was still achievable in
2013 if rapid emission reductions had begun at that time and if
there were a global program for reforestation and improved
agricultural and forestry practices. Now climate restoration this
century would also require substantial technological extraction of
CO2 from the air. If rapid emission reductions do not begin soon,
the burden placed on young people to extract CO2 emitted by prior
generations may become implausibly difficult and costly. 18 July
2017<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/">http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033">Al
Gore Plots Climate Change Special With Fat Joe, Steve Aoki</a></b></font><br>
MTV will air half-hour program tied to former Vice President's new
documentary, 'An Inconvenient Sequel'<br>
By Jon Blistein Rolling Stone Magazine<br>
Former Vice President Al Gore will host an MTV special on climate
change featuring Fat Joe and Steve Aoki, August 2nd at 7:30 p.m.
ET/PT, Billboard reports. An Inconvenient Special will be a
half-hour town hall-style conversation with young people about the
effects of climate change.<br>
<i>(<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033">video
preview</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033">http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033</a>)</i><br>
Al Gore on Climate Change: 'We Will Solve This'<br>
"I thought there was a chance [Trump] would come to his senses, but
I was wrong," ...<br>
The special is tied to Gore's upcoming movie, An Inconvenient
Sequel: Truth to Power, which arrives July 28th. The film tracks the
efforts made to tackle climate change since the release of Gore's
2006 Oscar-winning documentary, An Inconvenient Truth.<br>
MTV News correspondent Gaby Wilson will moderate the town hall
portion of the special, which will give young people the chance to
speak out about climate change. An Inconvenient Special will also
look specifically at the impact of climate change on Miami, where
Fat Joe lives and where Aoki was born. Aoki will serve as a city
correspondent during the special, while Fat Joe will appear in a
field piece alongside 17-year-old Miami-based activist Delaney
Reynolds.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033">http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/al-gore-plots-climate-change-special-with-fat-joe-steve-aoki-w493033</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060057453">Investigators
want to question this man in court</a></b><br>
Benjamin Hulac, E&E News reporter<br>
Published: Monday, July 17, 2017<br>
Jason Iwanika, a greenhouse gas analyst in Canada, could be a key
witness in the high-profile probe into Exxon Mobil Corp.'s climate
change policies.<br>
But Exxon has fought efforts to get him to testify.<br>
New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman (D) has started
questioning witnesses in his ongoing investigation of Exxon -
including greenhouse gas experts. But while Exxon has made at least
four other employees available for depositions in June and July, the
oil giant has fought particularly hard to shield Iwanika - an
analyst at an Exxon subsidiary - from investigators' questions.
Exxon argues that his employment at the Canadian subsidiary exempts
him from being forced to testify.<br>
According to Schneiderman, Iwanika's work is evidence that Exxon may
have defrauded its investors for years by failing to properly
account for climate change risks. The judge in New York overseeing
the case, Barry Ostrager, ordered Exxon to produce Iwanika, but it's
unclear when that could happen.<br>
"Mr. Iwanika's testimony is highly relevant to the [attorney
general's] investigation given that documents produced by Exxon
indicate that he was directed by Exxon not to apply a proxy cost to
Exxon's Canadian oil sands projects," Schneiderman said last
month...<br>
Schneiderman and his team want to hear from him because he appears
to hold different answers from some of his peers who are also
economic planning and greenhouse gas experts for Exxon.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060057453">https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060057453</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-hansen-kids-climate-lawsuit_us_596e6a96e4b0a03aba859561">Kids
Suing Trump Over Climate Change Get A Boost From Grandpa</a></b></font><br>
He's famed climatologist James Hansen, whose new research
strengthens the case for climate action.<br>
By Alexander C. Kaufman<br>
"There's a narrative out there that because of the Paris accord and
because solar panels are becoming cheap, we've turned the corner on
dealing with the climate problem," Hansen said on a call with
reporters. "In fact, what we show … is that the growth rate of these
greenhouse gases is actually accelerating in the last several years,
so not only do they continue to grow, they grow faster and faster."<br>
The research compared the currently projected warming of more than
3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius, by the end of the
century to the only slightly lower global temperatures during the
Eemian, an interglacial period that ran from 130,000 to 115,000
years ago. During that time, sea levels surged six to nine meters,
or 19 to 30 feet.<br>
At those levels, modern coastal cities would easily be submerged.<br>
The study gives weight to the lawsuit by 21 kids and young adults
who accuse the federal government of violating their constitutional
rights to life, liberty and property by promoting fossil fuel
production and failing to implement efforts to curb climate change.
The suit was filed in 2015 with the help of the Oregon-based
nonprofit Our Children's Trust.<br>
Although it originally targeted the Obama administration, the case
is now proceeding against President Donald Trump, whose
administration has moved to roll back environmental regulations and
bolster oil, gas and coal production.<br>
"We will leave young people in the intractable situation in which
climate change is occurring out of their control and costs of trying
to maintain a livable planet may become too high to bear," Hansen
said.<br>
Hansen, who is also a plaintiff in the suit, has a long history of
raising the alarm about global warming. He has become a sort of
bogeyman among conservative skeptics who dismiss his warnings as
"alarmist."<br>
"In particular, our case focuses on putting the best available
science in the courtroom to show how our youngest generation and
future generations will be burdened by the continued high fossil
fuel emissions," the plaintiffs' co-lead counsel Phillip Gregory
said on the call.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-hansen-kids-climate-lawsuit_us_596e6a96e4b0a03aba859561">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/james-hansen-kids-climate-lawsuit_us_596e6a96e4b0a03aba859561</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/07/13/analysis/these-missing-charts-may-change-way-you-think-about-fossil-fuel-addiction">These
'missing charts' may change the way you think about fossil
fuel addiction</a></b></font><br>
By Barry Saxifrage in Analysis, Energy | July 13th 2017<br>
Even at the relative level, the burning of fossil fuels continues to
overwhelmingly dominate global energy consumption. Decades of
efforts to shift to safer sources have barely dented fossil fuels'
share, which continues to float north of 85 per cent.<br>
When we drill down to recent trends in oil and gas it's even more
discouraging. The burning of both those fossil carbon fuels
continues to surge dizzyingly upwards, out-running the safer
alternatives. Reports show that these twin surges threaten to "lock
in" global climate failure.<br>
The one possible point of hope for our climate and oceans is in the
data on recent coal burning. But this data is the most likely to be
under-reported. Coal burning has been spectacularly under-reported
in the past. Repeatedly. And now, as pressure grows, more and more
nations and industries stand to benefit by under-reporting. They
face little chance of being caught if they do. That's because the
world lacks any way to verify much of the global coal reporting.<br>
Meanwhile, construction of coal plants continues to boom around the
globe and CO2 levels in our atmosphere continue to accelerate
upwards.<br>
If we want hospitable climate and oceans, the fossil fuel data
suggests that our efforts so far are far too little. In the words of
California Governor Jerry Brown, "You can't do too much to sound the
alarm because so far the response is not adequate to the challenge."<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/07/13/analysis/these-missing-charts-may-change-way-you-think-about-fossil-fuel-addiction">http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/07/13/analysis/these-missing-charts-may-change-way-you-think-about-fossil-fuel-addiction</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/sweeping-wildfires-burn-canada-s-timber-as-lumber-prices-surge">Canada
Wildfires Prompt Lumber Price Surge, Mine Shutdowns</a></b></font><br>
Wildfires sweeping across British Columbia, the world's biggest
exporter of softwood lumber, sent timber prices surging and forced
the closure of two copper mines in the western Canadian province.<br>
More than 375 fires have swept across the province, burning forests,
displacing an estimated 37,000 people from their homes, and forcing
sawmills and mines to shut down or evacuate. Lumber futures on
Monday jumped by the exchange limit in Chicago to the highest in
more than two months. Imperial Metals Corp. and Taseko Mines Ltd.
both said Monday that they've idled mines in the region.<br>
"Forests are getting burnt, so that has a supply impact," said Paul
Quinn, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Vancouver. While the
impact on supplies is minimal so far, "the worry is they'll continue
to grow and get bigger," amid hot, dry conditions, he said.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/sweeping-wildfires-burn-canada-s-timber-as-lumber-prices-surge">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/sweeping-wildfires-burn-canada-s-timber-as-lumber-prices-surge</a><br>
<br>
<b><br>
</b><font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jul/17/surrendering-to-fear-brought-us-climate-change-denial-and-president-trump">Surrendering
to fear brought us climate change denial and President Trump</a></b></font><br>
I propose that people take indefensible positions like climate
denial and Trump support simply out of fear<br>
With climate change, people are afraid for two reasons. First, they
are afraid there is nothing they can do about it. Humans hate to
have threats that are beyond our control. We are more afraid of
Ebola than heart disease. We are more afraid of flying than driving,
we are more afraid of sharks than toasters. We afraid of things we
feel we cannot directly control.<br>
Secondly, we are also afraid of bad news. How often have you not
checked your bank account because you don't want the bad news? Have
you ever known someone who didn't go to a doctor because they just
didn't want to know what their ailment was? It is so much easier to
pretend a problem doesn't exist. In fact, I'll go a step further and
say that people like to be lied to when it quiets their fear.<br>
So with respect to climate change, that puts the population into two
groups. The first group (which I am part of) knows that there is a
problem, wants to face it head on, and solve it together. The second
group cannot bear to look the problem honestly in the face and finds
it easier to deny its existence....<br>
The same is true for Trump supporters. Many people are afraid.
Afraid of change, afraid of the future, afraid of people who are not
just like us, afraid of terrorism, just plain afraid. For those
people it is so easy to buy the lie that the president will build a
wall, bring the jobs back, stop the terrorism, and make everything
perfect. <br>
We know intellectually this is all false, but facts don't matter.
Speaking to our fears is what matters. So, the psychological forces
that bring people to deny climate change are, in my opinion, the
same factors that bring people to support Trump. These factors don't
mean climate deniers are stupid, nor are Trump supporters. It
doesn't mean that they are bad people or immoral in any way. Rather,
it tells me that their brain handles fear differently than mine and
yours<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jul/17/surrendering-to-fear-brought-us-climate-change-denial-and-president-trump">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jul/17/surrendering-to-fear-brought-us-climate-change-denial-and-president-trump</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<a href="https://gu.com/p/6zq27/sbl"> <font size="+1"><b>Maize,
rice, wheat: alarm at rising climate risk to vital crops</b></font></a><br>
Simultaneous harvest failures in key regions would bring global
famine, says the Met Office<br>
"The group found there is a 6% chance every decade that a
simultaneous failure in maize production could occur in China and
the US – the world's main growers – which would result in widespread
misery, particularly in Africa and south Asia, where maize is
consumed directly as food."<br>
To get round this problem, the team ran 1,400 climate model
simulations on the Met Office's new supercomputer to understand how
climate might vary in the next few years and found that the
probability of severe drought was higher than if estimated solely
from past observations. The scientists concluded that current
agricultural policies could considerably underestimate the true risk
of climate-related shocks to maize growing and food supply.<br>
"We have found that we are not as resilient as we thought when it
comes to crop growing," said Kirsty Lewis, science manager for the
Met Office's climate security team. "We have to understand the risks
we face or there is a real danger we could get caught out. For now
we don't have the means to quantity the risks. We have to put that
right."<font size="-1" color="#666666"> <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://gu.com/p/6zq27/sbl">https://gu.com/p/6zq27/sbl</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<a
href="https://www.wired.com/story/how-climate-change-denial-threatens-national-security/"><b>How
Climate Change Denial Threatens National Security</b></a><br>
One of the key phrases here is "threat multiplier."<br>
The threat multiplier paradigm is appearing in other places.
Guatemala already has problems with food security, and many regions
are still left ungoverned after that country's not-so-distant civil
war. Rising seas are bringing saltwater incursion to Egypt's Nile
Delta, adding food insecurity to that country's already tense
political situation. And in Nigeria's capital city of Lagos, nearly
half of the 22 million residents live below sea level and will
eventually have to relocate-unlikely to be easy or conflict-free.
"This isn't a political issue for the defense community," says Ann
Phillips, a retired admiral and an advisor for the Center for
Climate and Security. "We in this community are pragmatic and
mission-focused."<br>
"Current Secretary of Defense General James Mattis has testified
that he understands climate change should be addressed where it
impacts his mission," says Phillips. "But some of other agencies
have directors who are less ... interested, you could say?" That
could mean the DoD is left to mop up these problems all on its own.<br>
"The problem with leaving it to military, is that they are trained
to deal with threats. So their solutions to climate crises tend to
frame the victims of climate change as threats," says Nick Buxton,
co-editor of The Secure and the Dispossessed, a collection of
academic articles exploring how the military and corporations are
responding to climate change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.wired.com/story/how-climate-change-denial-threatens-national-security/">https://www.wired.com/story/how-climate-change-denial-threatens-national-security/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/man-who-coined-global-warming-on-worst-case-scenarios.html">The
Man Who Coined the Term 'Global Warming' on the Worst-Case
Scenario for Planet Earth</a></b><br>
By David Wallace-Wells<br>
This week, to accompany our cover story on worst-case climate
scenarios, we're publishing a series of extended interviews with
climatologists on the subject - most of them from the "godfather
generation" of scientists who first raised the alarm about global
warming several decades ago.<br>
The oceanographer Wallace Smith Broecker is the man who coined the
term "global warming," way back in 1975, in a paper called "Climate
Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?"
Broecker had already distinguished himself in his work on what's
called the "ocean conveyor belt" - the system of jet streams and
other circulatory patterns that stir the planet's waters, regulating
heat along the way. Today, he is 84, still working at Columbia's
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and has given up hope that
emissions reduction alone could avert dramatic climate change....<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/man-who-coined-global-warming-on-worst-case-scenarios.html">http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/man-who-coined-global-warming-on-worst-case-scenarios.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://web.archive.org/web/20140427081627/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/07/19/hughes.access.cnna/">This
Day in Climate History July 19, 2001</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
July 19, 2001: Proving that the wish is the father to the thought,
White House adviser Karen Hughes tells CNN, "The whole issue of
global climate change is something our administration is serious
about."<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20140427081627/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/07/19/hughes.access.cnna/">http://web.archive.org/web/20140427081627/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/07/19/hughes.access.cnna/</a></font><br>
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