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<p><font size="+1"><i>September 11, 2017</i></font><br>
<b><a href="http://www.weather.gov/"><br>
Current Irma reports </a><br>
</b>Irma will bring very heavy rain and damaging winds to the
Southeast U.S on Monday<br>
Irma continues to move north through Florida and is expected to be
centered in southern Georgia by Monday afternoon. Along Irma's
path, widespread rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected in
parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina with isolated
locations approaching 20 inches of rain. In addition to heavy
rain, damaging winds and short lived tornadoes are expected. Read
More > <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.weather.gov/">http://www.weather.gov/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6soeAQx9ps">(YouTube
video clips) Climate & Extreme Weather News #65 (Hurricane
Irma Update)</a></b><br>
More news & footage from St Martin, the British Virgin
Islands, Turks & Caicos, Haiti, The Bahamas, Cuba and Florida.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6soeAQx9ps">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6soeAQx9ps</a></font><br>
</p>
<br>
FCC Federal Communications Commission<br>
<b><a href="https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/"
moz-do-not-send="true">Communications Status Report - Irma</a></b><br>
The Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau (PSHSB) learns the
status of each Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) through the
filings of 911 Service Providers in the Disaster Information
Reporting System (DIRS), through reporting done to the FCC's Public
Safety Support Center (PSSC), coordination with state 911
Administrators and, if necessary, individual PSAPs.<br>
September 10th
<table class="tableWithBorder">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>Hurricane Irma Communications Status Report for Sept.
10</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Released Date: 09/10/2017</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Description: .</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4"><b>Documents:</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4"> PDF : <a
href="https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346634A1.pdf"
target="blank" title="Document DOC-346634A1.pdf">DOC-346634A1.pdf</a>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4"> Text : <a
href="https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346634A1.txt"
target="blank" title="Document DOC-346634A1.txt">DOC-346634A1.txt</a>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
* 9-11-17 Note: report data is now publicly available on a new
server <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/">https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/</a>
<b><a
href="https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/tropical-storm-harvey-takes-out-911-centers-cell-towers-and-cable-networks/"><br>
</a></b>
<p><b><a
href="https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/tropical-storm-harvey-takes-out-911-centers-cell-towers-and-cable-networks/">Tropical
Storm Harvey takes out 911 centers, cell towers, and cable
networks</a></b><br>
148,000 Internet, TV, and phone customers lost service in storm's
wake. <br>
<i>(on 8-28) </i> In 55 Texas and Louisiana counties that are part
of the disaster area, 320 out of 7,804 cell sites were down as of
yesterday at 11am EDT, according to the FCC's latest <a
href="https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346369A1.pdf">summary
published yesterday</a>. That's 4.1 percent across the area, but
in a few Texas counties the cell blackouts affected more than 80
percent of cell sites.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/tropical-storm-harvey-takes-out-911-centers-cell-towers-and-cable-networks/">https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/tropical-storm-harvey-takes-out-911-centers-cell-towers-and-cable-networks/</a><br>
Last available report for Harvey: <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346369A1.pdf">https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-346369A1.pdf</a><br>
</p>
<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/09/10/climate-change-when-military-makes-more-sense-politicians">(opinion)
Climate Change: When the Military Makes More Sense Than the
Politicians</a></b><br>
Maybe the generals can be our Paul Revere's. Maybe.<br>
...the biggest threat our species has faced in 10 thousand years, is
global warming and the military are again out front. They don't call
it a hoax. In the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review they call the
dramatic climate change "an accelerant of instability" and a "threat
multiplier." In October 2015 three former defense secretaries joined
other experts saying the climate change is "shaping a world that is
more unstable, resource-constrained, violent, and disaster-prone."<br>
<blockquote>President Trump calls anthropogenic global warming "a
hoax." Maybe his generals could sit him down and give him a little
primer on this epochal threat to planetary security. We have had
378 months of above average temperatures. That's no hoax.
Scientists say Arctic ice is in "a death spiral." That's no hoax.
People fish off Bangladesh in what was once a busy market before
rising seas claimed it. That's no hoax. MIT professor Alan
Lightman reports: "Due to irreversible erosion, California has
been losing its coastline at the rate of eight inches per year." A
home that was thirty feet from a cliff overlooking the Pacific is
now three feet from the edge, poised for the plunge. That's no
hoax. Temperatures rose in Iraq and Kuwait to 129 F in July 2016
and to 112 F in parts of France and Italy in August 2017. That's
no hoax. "For every degree Celsius that temperature rises,
agricultural scientists calculate, wheat yields drop 10 percent in
the Earth's hotter midriff," as Alan Weisman reports in his
tellingly entitled book Countdown. That's no hoax. Environmental
refugees no longer come only from island states like the Maldives
and Tuvalu and from Bangladesh. They come from Houston and will be
coming from inundated cities on our coasts. On top of all that we
are awakening the sleeping giant in the earth. As vulcanologist
Bill McGuire says changing climate triggers earthquakes, tsunamis,
and volcanoes, unleashing forces that make our destructive power
seem puny. And that is coming and that is no hoax. Hurricanes
Harvey and Irma, energized by the heated waters of the sea, are
portents of a "new normal." The records they are breaking are not
a hoax.<br>
</blockquote>
When we are scared we can act. We got scared of small pox and an
international effort ended it. We got really scared with the
shrinkage of the ozone over Antartica and we responded
internationally. In World War II, the United States stoked by fear
transformed its economy and its industrial production in a matter of
months.<br>
We need fear. Big fear. Green fear. Maybe the generals can be our
Paul Revere's. Maybe.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/09/10/climate-change-when-military-makes-more-sense-politicians">https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/09/10/climate-change-when-military-makes-more-sense-politicians</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/</a></font><br>
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">Global
Warming and Hurricanes</a></b><br>
An Overview of Current Research Results<br>
Last Revised: Aug. 30, 2017<br>
<b>Summary Statement</b><br>
Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes<br>
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and Climate Warming<br>
Recent Relevant GFDL Papers and Animations<br>
WMO Expert Team 2010 Assessment of Tropical Cyclones and Climate
Change<br>
Early GFDL Research on Global Warming and Hurricanes<br>
Related links<br>
<b>1. Summary Statement</b><br>
Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are
the following:<br>
- Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic
hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?<br>
- What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st
century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from current
IPCC models?<br>
In this review, we address these questions in the context of
published research findings. We will first present the main
conclusions and then follow with some background discussion of the
research that leads to these conclusions. The main conclusions are:<br>
<b>Likelihood Statements</b><br>
The terminology here for likelihood statements generally follows the
conventions used in the IPCC AR4, i.e., for the assessed likelihood
of an outcome or result:<br>
Very Likely: > 90%,<br>
Likely: > 66%<br>
More Likely Than Not (or Better Than Even Odds) > 50%<br>
It is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly
greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had
a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone
activity. That said, human activities may have already caused
changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of
the changes or observational limitations, or are not yet confidently
modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).<br>
Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely
cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2
to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario).
This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the
destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm
size.<br>
There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the
next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very
intense tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be
substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in
the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm
occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change)
in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.<br>
Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely
cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates
than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about
10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm
center.<font size="-1" color="#666666">..<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.abstract">An
adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress</a></b><br>
Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huberb<br>
Abstract<br>
Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is
often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible
warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit
to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb
temperature TW, is surprisingly similar across diverse climates
today. TW never exceeds 31 degrees C. Any exceedence of 35 degrees C
for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other
mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While
this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean
warming of about 7 degrees C, calling the habitability of some
regions into question. With 11–12 degrees C warming, such regions
would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as
currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 degrees C are
possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent
estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low
unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat
stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.abstract">http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.abstract</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/09/01/volcanic-eruptions-triggered-past-global-warming-event-study-finds/#5dbe2ffc5f00">Volcanic
Eruptions Triggered Past Global Warming Event, Study Finds</a></b><br>
Millions of years ago Earth was on a path similar to today,
increasing carbon dioxide leading to a warming planet and many
significant system wide changes. In a recent study published in
Nature, a team of scientists revealed the mechanism through which
the Earth experienced one of the fastest warming events on record.<br>
Step back in time 56 million years ago to the Paleocene/Eocene
Thermal Maximum (PETM) and you would be in an analogous world as
today. <br>
...it was clear to geoscientists that the warming event was due to
excess release of carbon dioxide and/or methane into the atmosphere.
However, what remained unclear is what mechanism drove the sudden
increase in greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.<br>
Now, scientists have determined it was likely a gradual release of
carbon dioxide through active North American volcanic eruptions.<br>
Using a similar technique the research team discovered is that while
the PETM is an analog for the modern day, it's not a perfect match.
This is because humans have emitted carbon dioxide at far faster
rates than what the Earth has potentially ever experienced. In
addition, the quantities of carbon dioxide show some differences.
While increased volcanic activity increased carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere, it did so over the course of thousands of years, as
opposed to hundreds of years in the modern case. The more rapid the
change, the harder it is for species (such as humans) to adapt to
the changing planet.<br>
However, the total amount of carbon dioxide released during the PETM
was more than 30 times the amount released from all fossil fuels
burned to date. Hence, we find that the release of carbon dioxide
during the PETM was slower and more gradual, but much larger in
ultimate magnitude. Unfortunately, there are no good examples of
releasing the amount of carbon dioxide we have in such a short
amount of time and how that will impact species on Earth. A fairly
precarious position to find ourselves in. <font size="-1"
color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/09/01/volcanic-eruptions-triggered-past-global-warming-event-study-finds/#5dbe2ffc5f00">https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/09/01/volcanic-eruptions-triggered-past-global-warming-event-study-finds/#5dbe2ffc5f00</a></font><br>
<b><a
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v548/n7669/full/nature23646.html">Very
large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the
Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum</a></b><br>
<i>(Abstract)</i><br>
The Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum1, 2 (PETM) was a global
warming event that occurred about 56 million years ago, and is
commonly thought to have been driven primarily by the
destabilization of carbon from surface sedimentary reservoirs such
as methane hydrates3. However, it remains controversial whether such
reservoirs were indeed the source of the carbon that drove the
warming1, 3, 4, 5. Resolving this issue is key to understanding the
proximal cause of the warming, and to quantifying the roles of
triggers versus feedbacks. Here we present boron isotope data-a
proxy for seawater pH-that show that the ocean surface pH was
persistently low during the PETM. We combine our pH data with a
paired carbon isotope record in an Earth system model in order to
reconstruct the unfolding carbon-cycle dynamics during the event6,
7. We find strong evidence for a much larger (more than 10,000
petagrams)-and, on average, isotopically heavier-carbon source than
considered previously8, 9. This leads us to identify volcanism
associated with the North Atlantic Igneous Province10, 11, rather
than carbon from a surface reservoir, as the main driver of the
PETM. This finding implies that climate-driven amplification of
organic carbon feedbacks probably played only a minor part in
driving the event. However, we find that enhanced burial of organic
matter seems to have been important in eventually sequestering the
released carbon and accelerating the recovery of the Earth system12.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v548/n7669/full/nature23646.html">http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v548/n7669/full/nature23646.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
Capital Weather Gang<b><br>
</b><b> </b><b><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/10/the-most-interesting-and-scary-things-weve-seen-on-social-media-during-hurricane-irma/?tid=pm_local_pop&utm_term=.f32fa6058ab0#comments">The
most interesting and scary things we've seen on social media
during Hurricane Irma</a></b><b> (<i>see the flamingos</i>!)<br>
</b>We've seen some incredible things from Hurricane Irma, thanks to
social media. From first-hand accounts of the devastation in the
Caribbean to landfall in the Keys, the medium has proved invaluable.
Here are some of the most interesting things we've seen come across
our feeds.<br>
We will update this post through the duration of Hurricane Irma.<br>
Flamingos moved to safety as fears grow for animals caught in
Hurricane Irma - A flock of flamingos – officially called a
flamboyance – have been filmed walking in an orderly line to safety
from the danger of Hurricane Irma in Tampa.<br>
<font size="-1" color="#666666"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/10/the-most-interesting-and-scary-things-weve-seen-on-social-media-during-hurricane-irma/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/10/the-most-interesting-and-scary-things-weve-seen-on-social-media-during-hurricane-irma/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/opinion/sunday/temperatures-rise-and-were-cooked.html">This
Day in Climate History September 11, 2016</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
September 11, 2016:<br>
New York Times columnist Nick Kristof discusses the impact of
human-caused climate change on the human body.<br>
<blockquote>..clever <a
href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/jisungpark/publications">new
working paper<i>(s) </i></a>by Jisung Park, a Ph.D. student in
economics at Harvard, compared the performances of New York City
students on 4.6 million exams with the day's temperature. He found
that students taking a New York State Regents exam on a 90-degree
day have a 12 percent greater chance of failing than when the
temperature is 72 degrees.<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/opinion/sunday/temperatures-rise-and-were-cooked.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/opinion/sunday/temperatures-rise-and-were-cooked.html</a></font><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/jisungpark/publications">https://scholar.harvard.edu/jisungpark/publications</a>
In Preparation:</font><br>
<font size="-1">Park, Jisung. "Hot Temperature, Human Capital, and
Adaptation to Climate Change (Job Market Paper)." Unpublished
Manuscript, Harvard University Economics Department, In
Preparation.Abstract paper_nyc_jpark.pdf</font><br>
<font size="-1">Park, Jisung. "Will We Adapt? Temperature Shocks,
Labor Productivity and Climate Adaptation in the United States."
Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Working Papers, In
Preparation. Publisher's VersionAbstract
will_we_adapt_-_jpark_4-3-17.pdf</font><br>
<font size="-1">Park, Jisung, and Geoffrey Heal. "Feeling the Heat:
Temperature, Physiology, and the Wealth of Nations (revise and
resubmit at Journal of the Association of Environmental and
Resource Economists)." NBER Working Papers , In Preparation,
w19725. Publisher's VersionAbstract</font><br>
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