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<font size="+1"><i>October 7, 2017</i></font><br>
<br>
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/">(animated modeled
graph)</a><br>
5 October 2017 <br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming">Analysis:
How well have climate models projected global warming?</a></b><br>
"While some models projected less warming than we've experienced and
some projected more, all showed surface temperature increases
between 1970 and 2016 that were not too far off from what actually
occurred, particularly when differences in assumed future emissions
are taken into account."<br>
Carbon Brief has collected prominent climate model projections since
1973 to see how well they project both past and future global
temperatures, as shown in the animation below. <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/">(Click the play
button to start.)</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/">https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/</a><br>
Climate models can be evaluated both on their ability to hindcast
past temperatures and forecast future ones.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming">https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/">https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
Pew Research Center U.S. Politics & Policy<br>
THE PARTISAN DIVIDE ON POLITICAL VALUES GROWS EVEN WIDER<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/7-global-warming-and-environmental-regulation-personal-environmentalism/">7.
Global warming and environmental regulation, personal
environmentalism</a></b><br>
The view that it's important to take action on the environment even
if it costs time or money is particularly widely held among those
with family incomes of $150,000 or more (74%), the highest income
bracket measured in the survey.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/7-global-warming-and-environmental-regulation-personal-environmentalism/">http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/7-global-warming-and-environmental-regulation-personal-environmentalism/</a></font><br>
<br>
<b><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climatecrocks.com/2017/10/06/greenland-more-exposed-to-melt-from-beneath/">Greenland
More Exposed to Melt from Beneath</a><br>
</b>The new research finds that "between 30 and 100% more glaciers
are potentially exposed to [warm Atlantic water] than suggested by
previous mapping, which represents 55% of the ice sheet's total
drainage area." In other words, more than half of Greenland's ice
lies in or flows through areas that could be influenced by warming
seas.<br>
"...we find these fjords to be much deeper than represented in
previous maps," said Eric Rignot, a NASA and UCI scientist who has
been working on mapping Greenland for a decade and is a co-author on
the work. "They're deeper because they've been carved by glacial
cycles, multiple times."<br>
...the island has several vulnerable points where a submerged
passageway penetrates into the center of the ice sheet, where the
bedrock also lies below sea level.<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatecrocks.com/2017/10/06/greenland-more-exposed-to-melt-from-beneath/">https://climatecrocks.com/2017/10/06/greenland-more-exposed-to-melt-from-beneath/</a><br>
</font><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v550/n7674/full/nature23873.html">Delta
progradation in Greenland driven by increasing glacial mass loss</a><br>
</b>Climate changes are pronounced in Arctic regions and increase
the vulnerability of the Arctic coastal zone1. For example,
increases in melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and reductions in
sea ice and permafrost distribution are likely to alter coastal
morphodynamics. The deltas of Greenland are largely unaffected by
human activity, but increased freshwater runoff and sediment fluxes
may increase the size of the deltas, whereas increased wave activity
in ice-free periods could reduce their size, with the net impact
being unclear until now. Here we show that southwestern Greenland
deltas were largely stable from the 1940s to 1980s, but prograded
(that is, sediment deposition extended the delta into the sea) in a
warming Arctic from the 1980s to 2010s. Our results are based on the
areal changes of 121 deltas since the 1940s, assessed using newly
discovered aerial photographs and remotely sensed imagery. We find
that delta progradation was driven by high freshwater runoff from
the Greenland Ice Sheet coinciding with periods of open water.
Progradation was controlled by the local initial environmental
conditions (that is, accumulated air temperatures above 0 °C per
year, freshwater runoff and sea ice in the 1980s) rather than by
local changes in these conditions from the 1980s to 2010s at each
delta. This is in contrast to a dominantly eroding trend of Arctic
sedimentary coasts along the coastal plains of Alaska2, Siberia3 and
western Canada4, and to the spatially variable patterns of erosion
and accretion along the large deltas of the main rivers in the
Arctic5, 6, 7. Our results improve the understanding of Arctic
coastal evolution in a changing climate, and reveal the impacts on
coastal areas of increasing ice mass loss and the associated
freshwater runoff and lengthening of open-water periods.<b><br>
</b><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v550/n7674/full/nature23873.html">https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v550/n7674/full/nature23873.html</a><b><br>
<br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://news.mit.edu/2017/kerry-emanuel-hurricanes-are-taste-future-0921">(MIT
video lecture) Kerry Emanuel: 2017 Hurricanes a taste of Future
</a></b><br>
Climate scientist Kerry Emanuel describes physics behind expected
increase in storm strength due to climate change. <br>
In a detailed talk about the history and the underlying physics of
hurricanes and tropical cyclones, MIT Professor Kerry Emanuel
yesterday explained why climate change will cause such storms to
become much stronger and reach peak intensity further north,
heightening their potential impacts on human lives in coming years.<br>
"Climate change, if unimpeded, will greatly increase the probability
of extreme events," such as the three record-breaking hurricanes of
recent weeks, he said.<br>
Video via Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences MIT <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/user/EAPSweb/videos">https://www.youtube.com/user/EAPSweb/videos</a><br>
Speaker: Kerry A. Emanuel, Cecil & Ida Green Professor of
Atmospheric Science, Co-Director of the Lorenz Center<br>
Natural disasters are the result of the interaction of a natural
phenomenon with human beings and their built environments. Globally
and in the U.S., large increases in coastal populations are causing
corresponding increases in hurricane damage and these are now being
compounded by rising sea levels and changing storm characteristics
owing to anthropogenic climate change. In this talk, I will describe
projections of changing hurricane activity over the rest of this
century and what such projections tell us about how the
probabilities of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma have already
changed and are likely to continue to do so.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWP-Sc8DYh4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWP-Sc8DYh4</a><br>
For the near term, Emanuel said that U.S. rainfall events as intense
as that produced by hurricane Harvey, which had about a 1 percent
annual likelihood in the 1990s, has already increased in likelihood
to about 6 percent annually, and by 2090 could be about 18 percent.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://news.mit.edu/2017/kerry-emanuel-hurricanes-are-taste-future-0921">http://news.mit.edu/2017/kerry-emanuel-hurricanes-are-taste-future-0921</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://news.stanford.edu/2017/10/05/soil-holds-potential-slow-global-warming/">Soil
holds potential to slow global warming, Stanford researchers
find</a></b><br>
The land under our feet and the plant matter it contains could
offset a significant amount of carbon emissions if managed properly.
More research is needed to unlock soil's potential to mitigate
global warming, improve crop yields and increase resilience to
extreme weather.<br>
<font color="#330033"><span style="font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(242, 241, 235); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline !
important; float: none;">Earth system science professor<span> </span></span><a
href="https://profiles.stanford.edu/jackson" style="box-sizing:
border-box; background-color: rgb(242, 241, 235);
text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 600; outline: 0px none;
font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align:
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space:
normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">Rob
Jackson</a><span style="font-family: "Source Serif
Pro","Times New Roman",Times,serif; font-size:
17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(242, 241,
235); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline ! important; float: none;">, lead
author of the<span> </span></span><em style="box-sizing:
border-box; font-family: "Source Serif
Pro","Times New Roman",Times,serif; font-size:
17px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(242, 241, 235); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Annual Review of
Ecology, Evolution and Systematics<span> </span></em><a
href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054234"
style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(242, 241,
235); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 600; outline: 0px
none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align:
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space:
normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">article</a><span
style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro","Times New
Roman",Times,serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(242, 241, 235); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline !
important; float: none;"><span> </span>and co-author of the<span> </span></span><em
style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Serif
Pro","Times New Roman",Times,serif; font-size:
17px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(242, 241, 235); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Global Change Biology</em><span
style="font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(242, 241,
235); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline ! important; float: none;"><span> </span></span><a
href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13896/full"
style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(242, 241,
235); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 600; outline: 0px
none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align:
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space:
normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">paper</a><span
style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro","Times New
Roman",Times,serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(242, 241, 235); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline !
important; float: none;">. "But it is a no-risk climate solution
with big co-benefits. Fostering soil health protects food
security and builds resilience to droughts, floods and
urbanization."</span></font><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://news.stanford.edu/2017/10/05/soil-holds-potential-slow-global-warming/">http://news.stanford.edu/2017/10/05/soil-holds-potential-slow-global-warming/</a><br>
<br>
</font> <b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-soil-could-speed-global-warming-way-more-we-thought-678869">Climate
Change: Soil Could Speed Up Global Warming Way More Than We
Thought</a></b><br>
Carbon dioxide in the air is causing the planet to warm—but the
higher temperatures may cause still more carbon dioxide to end up in
the atmosphere. And a new study published today in the journal
Science suggests the impact could be larger and more complicated
than scientists had previously expected, not to mention difficult to
counter.<br>
"This self-reinforcing feedback is potentially a global phenomenon
with soils, and once it starts it may be very difficult to turn
off," lead author Jerry Melillo, an ecologist at the the Marine
Biological Laboratory, told Newsweek. "It's that part of the problem
that I think is sobering.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-soil-could-speed-global-warming-way-more-we-thought-678869">http://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-soil-could-speed-global-warming-way-more-we-thought-678869</a><br>
</font>-<br>
<span style="padding:0px 6px 0px 0px"> <a
href="https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/10/05/one-of-the-oldest-climate-change-experiments-has-led-to-a-troubling-conclusion/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYDCoTMTcwOTcwNTAyMjc2NTI0NDA2NzIaYmJhYjdjZDMxNGYyYTdjYTpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNHesyf0cRsyHGVkGdrCqLiZvDFQ0Q"
itemprop="url"
style="color:#427fed;display:inline;text-decoration:none;font-size:16px;line-height:20px">
<span itemprop="name">One of the oldest climate change
experiments has led to a troubling conclusion</span> </a> </span>
<div style="padding:2px 0px 8px 0px">
<div itemprop="publisher" itemscope=""
itemtype="http://schema.org/Organization"
style="color:#737373;font-size:12px"> <a
style="text-decoration:none;color:#737373"> <span
itemprop="name">Washington Post</span> </a> </div>
<div itemprop="description" style="color:#252525;padding:2px 0px
0px 0px;font-size:12px;line-height:18px">The hypothesis is that
<b>warmer</b> temperatures would lead microorganisms in ...
Canadell also questioned the 190 petagram figure for possible <b>global</b> ...</div>
</div>
<div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px"> <a
href="https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/05/carbon-emissions-warming-soils-higher-than-estimated-signalling-tipping-points&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBioTMTcwOTcwNTAyMjc2NTI0NDA2NzIaYmJhYjdjZDMxNGYyYTdjYTpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNHPBrim1nGCX0oxjPcxK1DWCD2KMA"
style="color:#427FED;text-decoration:none">Carbon emissions from
<b>warming</b> soils could trigger disastrous feedback loop</a>
<span style="color:#737373"> - <a
style="text-decoration:none;color:#737373">The Guardian</a></span>
</div>
<div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px"> <a
href="https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/uoma-smc100417.php&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBioTMTcwOTcwNTAyMjc2NTI0NDA2NzIaYmJhYjdjZDMxNGYyYTdjYTpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNEW1NncvsMI_tG_ojL2XolaiiSYbA"
style="color:#427FED;text-decoration:none">Soil microbes'
contribution to the carbon cycle in a <b>warming</b> world</a>
<span style="color:#737373"> - <a
style="text-decoration:none;color:#737373">EurekAlert (press
release)</a></span> </div>
-<br>
Bloomberg<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/there-s-a-climate-change-bomb-under-your-feet">There's
a Climate Bomb Under Your Feet</a></b><br>
Soil locks away carbon just as the oceans do. But that lock is
getting picked as the atmosphere warms and development accelerates.<br>
Warming soil may set off a chain reaction of carbon emissions that
"could be very difficult, if not impossible, to halt"<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/there-s-a-climate-change-bomb-under-your-feet">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/there-s-a-climate-change-bomb-under-your-feet</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<span style="padding:0px 6px 0px 0px"> <a
href="https://phys.org/news/2017-10-microbes-dictate-regime-shifts-anoxia.html"
itemprop="url"
style="color:#427fed;display:inline;text-decoration:none;font-size:16px;line-height:20px"
moz-do-not-send="true"> <font size="+1"><b><span
itemprop="name">Microbes dictate regime shifts causing
anoxia in lakes and seas</span></b></font> </a> </span>
<div style="padding:2px 0px 8px 0px">
<div itemprop="publisher" itemscope=""
itemtype="http://schema.org/Organization"
style="color:#737373;font-size:12px"> <a
style="text-decoration:none;color:#737373"> <span
itemprop="name">Phys.Org</span> </a> </div>
</div>
Gradual environmental changes due to eutrophication and global
warming can cause a rapid depletion of oxygen levels in lakes and
coastal waters.<br>
One type of regime shift may occur in lakes and coastal waters when
a rapid depletion of the dissolved oxygen concentration leads to a
lack of oxygen, which is detrimental to most aquatic organisms.
Although this phenomenon is well known, the underlying mechanisms
causing the transition from oxic to anoxic conditions are not fully
understood.<br>
They discovered that lakes can be in two alternative stable states:
one in which the lake is rich in oxygen, and another in which it
lacks oxygen. Transitions from the oxic to the anoxic state occur in
the form of a regime shift. "When the oxygen influx is gradually
reduced, at first oxygen-producing cyanobacteria and algae still
persist and the lake remains in the oxic state," explains first
author Tim Bush. "Below a critical threshold, however,
sulfate-reducing bacteria and photosynthetic sulfur bacteria take
over. These cause an increase in sulfide concentrations, which then
kills the cyanobacteria and rapidly flips the lake from an oxic to
an anoxic state."<br>
More information: Timothy Bush et al. Oxic-anoxic regime shifts
mediated by feedbacks between biogeochemical processes and microbial
community dynamics, Nature Communications (2017). DOI:
10.1038/s41467-017-00912-x <font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2017-10-microbes-dictate-regime-shifts-anoxia.html">https://phys.org/news/2017-10-microbes-dictate-regime-shifts-anoxia.html</a></font><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2017-10-microbes-dictate-regime-shifts-anoxia.html">https://phys.org/news/2017-10-microbes-dictate-regime-shifts-anoxia.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://m.greenpeace.org/canada/en/high/recent/Leaked-documents-show-TransCanada-planning-dirty-tricks-campaign-to-support-Energy-East-pipeline/">November
18, 2014 Leaked documents show TransCanada planning "dirty
tricks" campaign to support Energy East pipeline</a></b><br>
...Greenpeace Canada released leaked documents that it says shows
that TransCanada is using deceitful tactics to attack environmental
advocates. Greenpeace said the documents involve secret public
relations and a "grassroots advocacy" strategy by TransCanada to put
pressure on politicians and critics of their Energy East pipeline
proposal – tactics similar to those employed by the oil industry in
the U.S. to attack environmental advocates.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://m.greenpeace.org/canada/en/high/recent/Leaked-documents-show-TransCanada-planning-dirty-tricks-campaign-to-support-Energy-East-pipeline/">http://m.greenpeace.org/canada/en/high/recent/Leaked-documents-show-TransCanada-planning-dirty-tricks-campaign-to-support-Energy-East-pipeline/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b>This Day in Climate History October 7, 2003 -
from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
October 7, 2003: Arnold Schwarzenegger succeeds Gray Davis as the<br>
governor of California after a highly controversial "recall
election."<br>
Schwarzenegger--who had been demonized by talk radio host Rush<br>
Limbaugh in the weeks prior to the election as not being a "real"<br>
conservative--would become one of the very few prominent elected<br>
Republican officials urging action on climate change.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.c-span.org/video/?178547-2/california-recall-acceptance-consession">http://www.c-span.org/video/?178547-2/california-recall-acceptance-consession</a><br>
</font><br>
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