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<font size="+1"><i>October 12, 2017</i></font><br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-northern-california-20171011-story.html"><br>
Whole towns evacuated as Northern California firestorm grows; at
least 23 people are dead, 285 missing</a></b><br>
"We are facing some pretty significant monsters," Cal Fire incident
commander Bret Gouvea told a room of about 200 firefighters and law
enforcement officials at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds staging area
Wednesday morning.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-northern-california-20171011-story.html">http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-northern-california-20171011-story.html</a><br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.democracynow.org/2017/10/11/as_deadly_wildfires_rage_in_california">(video
Democracy Now) As Deadly Wildfires Rage in California, a Look at
How Global Warming Fuels Decades of Forest Fires</a></b><br>
the U.S. Forest Service warned last year that an unprecedented
5-year drought led to the deaths of more than 100 million trees in
California, setting the stage for massive fires. Climate scientists
believe human-caused global warming played a major role in the
drought. ...a 2016 report showing that global warming is responsible
for nearly half of the forest area burned in the western United
States over the past three decades.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.democracynow.org/2017/10/11/as_deadly_wildfires_rage_in_california">https://www.democracynow.org/2017/10/11/as_deadly_wildfires_rage_in_california</a><br>
</font><br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/why-this-isnt-the-new-normal-for-climate-change.html">This
Isn't 'the New Normal' for Climate Change - That Will Be Worse</a></b><br>
By David Wallace-Wells<br>
It is tempting to look at this string of disasters and think,
Climate change is here. Both hurricanes and wildfires are made worse
by warming, with as much as 30 percent of the strength of hurricanes
like Harvey and Maria attributable to climate change, and wildfire
season both extended and exacerbated by it. As the journalist
Malcolm Harris put it blithely on Twitter, "There didn't used to be
a major natural disaster every single day."<br>
But the truth is actually far scarier than "welcome to the new
normal." The climate system we have been observing since August, the
one that has pummeled the planet again and again and exposed even
the world's wealthiest country as unable (or at least unwilling) to
properly respond to its destruction, is not our bleak future. It is,
by definition, a beyond-best-case scenario for warming and all the
climate disasters that will bring. Even if, miraculously, the planet
immediately ceased emitting carbon into the atmosphere, we'd still
be due for some additional warming, and therefore some
climate-disaster shakeout, from just the stuff we've put into the
air already. But of course we're very far from zeroing out on
carbon, and therefore very far from stalling climate change. A
recent debate has centered around the question of whether it is even
conceivably possible for the planet to pull up short of
one-point-five degrees Celsius of warming, which means, at the
absolute very least, we have 50 percent more warming to go (since
we're at about one degree already). But even most optimistic experts
expect we'll at least hit two degrees, and possibly two-point-five
or even three. That means as much as 200 percent more warming ahead
of us. And what that means for extreme weather and climate disasters
is horrifying.<br>
...But, over time, the trend lines are inarguable: Climate change
will give us more devastating hurricanes than we have now, and more
horrible wildfires, as well as more tornadoes and droughts and heat
waves and floods.<br>
What that means is that we have not, at all, arrived at a new
normal. It is more like we've taken one step out on the plank off a
pirate ship. Perhaps because of the exhausting false debate about
whether climate change is "real," too many of us have developed a
misleading impression that its effects are binary. But global
warming is not "yes" or "no," it is a function that gets worse over
time as long as we continue to produce greenhouse gas. And so the
experience of life in a climate transformed by human activity is not
just a matter of stepping from one stable environment into another,
somewhat worse one, no matter how degraded or destructive the
transformed climate is. The effects will grow and build as the
planet continues to warm: from one degree to one-point-five to
almost certainly two degrees and beyond. The last few months of
climate disasters may look like about as much as the planet can
take. But things are only going to get worse.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/why-this-isnt-the-new-normal-for-climate-change.html">http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/why-this-isnt-the-new-normal-for-climate-change.html</a></font><br>
-<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://theknightnews.com/2017/10/11/op-ed-global-warmings-impact-on-mental-health/">OP-ED:
Global Warming's Impact on Mental Health</a></b><br>
...News on climate change can change perception for your own well
being, especially when one hears conflicting reports on the subject.
For example, a week and a half ago there was a report where
scientists discovered the population has more time for lowering our
carbon emissions to acceptable levels previously agreed upon.
However, some news publications took the headline and altered it, to
make it seem as though scientists had been wrong about climate
change. When these reports come out, which are fake news paraded
around as real news, it becomes a detriment not only to the cause of
stopping climate change, but also to a person's mental health....<br>
Climate change affects people both physically and mentally. It's
worse when proper relief is not provided in a timely manner to
victims. Millions of people are displaced because of the recent
hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. We must make
our politicians fulfil their civic duties and help fight towards aid
for these people. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://theknightnews.com/2017/10/11/op-ed-global-warmings-impact-on-mental-health/">https://theknightnews.com/2017/10/11/op-ed-global-warmings-impact-on-mental-health/</a></font><br>
-<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/11/magazine/why-are-more-american-teenagers-than-ever-suffering-from-severe-anxiety.html">Why
Are More American Teenagers Than Ever Suffering From Severe
Anxiety?</a></b><br>
Parents, therapists and schools are struggling to figure out whether
helping anxious teenagers means protecting them or pushing them to
face their fears.<br>
Among many teachers and administrators I spoke to, one word -
"resiliency" <i>[good thing the article didn't warn about
wrangling the runaway elephant named Climate Change]</i><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/11/magazine/why-are-more-american-teenagers-than-ever-suffering-from-severe-anxiety.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/11/magazine/why-are-more-american-teenagers-than-ever-suffering-from-severe-anxiety.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-the-us-generates-electricity">(Interactive)
Mapped: How the US generates electricity</a></b><br>
The US electricity system is often described as the world's largest
machine. It is also incredibly diverse, reflecting the policy
preferences, needs and available natural resources of each state.<br>
Carbon Brief has plotted the nation's power stations in an
interactive map (above) to show how and where the US generates
electricity.<br>
A few key messages can be gleaned from the map and associated data
interactives...: <br>
The US electricity system has been changing rapidly over the
past decade.<br>
This reflects not only federal policy, but also technologies,
geographies, markets and state mandates.<br>
The average US coal plant is 40 years old and runs half the
time. Some 15% are at least 50 years old, against an average
retirement age of 52.<br>
Planned new power plants are almost exclusively gas, wind or
solar.<br>
It's important to note that the map and related charts,...are based
on electrical generating capacity.<br>
As the chart above shows, the expected wave of coal retirements did
arrive, partly in response to old age, partly because of new
regulations - notably the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS),
which entered force in 2015.<br>
Contrary to expectations, however, rising demand failed to
materialise. One reason for this is that 30 states have implemented
their own energy efficiency targets, policies or standards. (These
are a mixture of mandatory and voluntary goals).<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-the-us-generates-electricity">https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-the-us-generates-electricity</a><br>
<br>
<b><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/record-amazon-fires-stun-scientists-sign-of-sick-degraded-forests/">Record
Amazon fires stun scientists; sign of sick, degraded forests</a><br>
</b>With the fire season still on-going, Brazil has seen 208,278
fires this year, putting 2017 on track to beat 2004's record 270,295
fires. While drought (likely exacerbated by climate change) worsens
the fires, experts say that nearly every blaze this year is
human-caused.<br>
The highest concentration of fires in the Amazon biome in September
was in the São Félix do Xingu and Altamira regions. Fires in Pará
state in September numbered 24,949, an astonishing six-fold increase
compared with 3,944 recorded in the same month last year.<br>
The Amazon areas seeing the most wildfires have also seen rapid
change and development in recent years, with high levels of
deforestation, and especially forest degradation, as loggers, cattle
ranchers, agribusiness and dam builders move in.<br>
Scientists warn of a dangerous synergy: forest degradation has
turned the Amazon from carbon sink to carbon source; while globally,
humanity's carbon emissions are worsening drought and fires.
Brazil's rapid Amazon development deepens the problem. Researchers
warn that mega-fires could be coming, unless trends are reversed.<b>..<br>
</b>...Figures from the Brazilian government's INPE (National
Institute of Space Research) show that 2017 is shaping up to be the
worst year on record for forest fires: <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/situacao-atual">208,278 were
detected by 5 October. </a>Alberto Setzer, who runs INPE's fire
monitoring department, told Mongabay that 2017 was now on course to
overtake 2004, until now the year with the most fires, when 270,295
were detected. More fires were seen in September of this year
(110,736) than in any previous month in the 20 years that INPE has
been recording fires.<br>
INPE, which has a sophisticated system for monitoring fires, has
built up <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/situacao-atual">an impressive
archive of satellite images </a>of the damage done by the fires.
This archive shows that the wildfires have increasingly been
spreading into protected forests. Over fifty conserved areas have
been impacted this year, almost twice the number damaged last year.
And the list includes some of Brazil's iconic nature parks.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/record-amazon-fires-stun-scientists-sign-of-sick-degraded-forests/">https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/record-amazon-fires-stun-scientists-sign-of-sick-degraded-forests/</a></font><b><br>
</b>See also<b> <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/situacao-atual">Amazon fire
Queimadas maps </a> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/situacao-atual">http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/situacao-atual</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.bitsofscience.org/climate-change-amazon-tipping-point-7540/">
Climate Change & Anthropocene Extinction 23: Amazon 'tipping
point' is a sliding process, from +1C</a></b><br>
There is however no clear-cut threshold temperature to this tipping
point ("above this temperature the rainforest dies, below we're
fine"). Instead it slides along the temperature scale, following an
S-shaped curve: 'some warming' kills part of the Amazon, 'a lot of
warming' will almost wipe the rainforest completely off the map -
and 'somewhere in between' the climatic deforestation progresses the
fastest.<br>
Based on available literature we can try to quantify this scale.
Serious ecological damage is probably already committed between a
warming of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial climate. Just
above 2 degrees warming more than half the Amazon basin can no
longer support rainforest, while at 3 degrees already 75 percent of
the rainforest could dry out and die...<br>
According to these researchers remaining uncertainties are more in
the realm of biology: "we find that the largest uncertainties are
associated with plant physiological responses, and then with future
emissions scenarios. Uncertainties from differences in the climate
projections are significantly smaller."...<br>
We'll be awaiting new Amazon climate impact studies. Meanwhile we
are safe to conclude it's a very threatened region - and one of the
most notable hotspots of 21st century climate change.<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.bitsofscience.org/climate-change-amazon-tipping-point-7540/">http://www.bitsofscience.org/climate-change-amazon-tipping-point-7540/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/10/09/climate-scientists-attack-tony-abbott-misleading-speech-global-warming-policy-foundation">Climate
Scientists Attack Tony Abbott's 'Misleading' Speech to Global
Warming Policy Foundation</a></b><br>
Australian climate scientists have hit back at their former Prime
Minister Tony Abbott, describing his speech to a London think tank
as being laced with distortions, falsehoods, misrepresentations, and
misdirection.<br>
Abbott told the contrarian Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)
that rising carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning could
be "beneficial" and compared acceptance of human-caused climate
change to religion.<br>
The GWPF, founded by former Thatcher government treasurer Lord Nigel
Lawson, consistently pushes positions on climate change that fall
well outside the established science.<br>
The foundation, which claims to be bi-partisan but has accepted
funding from many conservative figures, had declined requests from
several specialist climate change media outlets to hear the Abbott
lecture, claiming the speech "was not a media event."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/10/09/climate-scientists-attack-tony-abbott-misleading-speech-global-warming-policy-foundation">https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/10/09/climate-scientists-attack-tony-abbott-misleading-speech-global-warming-policy-foundation</a><br>
</font><br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-midwest-climate-infrastructure-20171010-story.html">Climate
change threatens Midwest infrastructure, report says</a></b><br>
"Rising temperatures and the likelihood of more storms and flooding
reduce the lifespan of roads and bridges, could cause railways to
buckle, and threaten above-ground energy facilities and transmission
lines," said study author Mary Craighead, transportation policy
analyst with the Illinois Economic Policy Institute, in a statement.
"Without critical maintenance and modernization of these systems,
everything from freight and commuter routes to our region's overall
economic value as a net distributor of electricity could be
jeopardized."<br>
The institute study notes that increased heat can reduce the life of
asphalt and add stress to expansion joints for bridges and highways.
Flooding also can weaken structural supports for bridges, promote
deterioration of soil that supports roads, tunnels and bridges and
increase a buildup of sediment in waterway channels. More frequent
freeze-thaw cycles add stress to pavement, which can cause potholes.
Droughts, such as the one that hit the Midwest in 2012, can hurt
water traffic.<br>
The study concludes that infrastructure is "grossly underfunded" to
meet the maintenance and growth needs of the nation.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-midwest-climate-infrastructure-20171010-story.html">http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-midwest-climate-infrastructure-20171010-story.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<b><br>
</b><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/hyperthermals-what-can-they-tell-us-about-modern-global-warming">Hyperthermals:
What can they tell us about modern global warming?</a></b><br>
Around 50m years ago, Earth was struck by a series of short-term
phases of rapid global warming, known collectively as "<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/projects/ehyper.asp">hyperthermals</a>".<br>
Lasting for a few thousand years at a time, each hyperthermal saw
the world's temperatures rise by <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.pnas.org/content/110/40/15908.abstract#corresp-1">as
much as 5C</a>. This rise in global temperature is believed to
have caused widespread changes to the world's habitats and <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.pnas.org/content/110/23/9273.short">waves of
species extinctions</a>.<br>
These hyperthermals were entirely natural climatic events, driven by
large releases of gases, such as CO2 and methane, into the
atmosphere. The likely causes of these events are still disputed by
scientists, with some suggesting waves of volcanic eruptions,
releases from natural methane stores and changes to the world's
soils could have been responsible.<br>
The rate of CO2 release during the hyperthermals was much slower
than the rate recorded by scientists today. <br>
A number of scientists believe that the hyperthermal that is most
comparable to current climate change is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal
Maximum (PETM), which was the first and largest of all the
hyperthermals.<br>
"What we know for sure is that large masses of carbon came from
below the ground. A recent heavily debated paper suggested that it
was caused by volcanism in the North Atlantic, which at the time was
very active in terms of volcanic activity. Most colleagues think
that carbon input came from sources such as methane hydrates below
the seafloor or buried terrestrial organic matter, which is buried
peat essentially."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/hyperthermals-what-can-they-tell-us-about-modern-global-warming">https://www.carbonbrief.org/hyperthermals-what-can-they-tell-us-about-modern-global-warming</a></font><br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/projects/ehyper.asp">USGS
Eocene Hyperthermals</a></b><br>
The Late Paleocene and Early Eocene were punctuated by a series of
sudden and extreme global warming events (~55.5, 53.5 and 52.5 Ma)
that were triggered by massive releases of carbon into the
atmosphere. While the mid-Pliocene warm period provides an analog
for modern CO2 concentrations, Eocene hyperthermals provide analogs
for the extremely rapid rates of atmospheric carbon increase that we
are currently witnessing.... <br>
...This project examines Eocene hyperthermals in terms of the
response of critical ecosystems in shallow marine environments using
sediment cores collected along the US mid-Atlantic coast. While more
recent warm intervals better represent modern or near future
climate, Eocene hyperthermals most closely resemble the modern in
terms of the rate of change of atmospheric CO2 and temperature. It
is here that we will find similarities in the response of marine
ecosystems to abrupt changes in climate such as are projected due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gas release...<br>
Our research will inform the scientific community, policy-makers and
the general public by providing products that reconstruct the
shallow marine environments across the US mid-Atlantic coastline
within single hyperthermal events as well as among several different
intervals of abrupt climate change. These studies will provide
insights on how biological systems adapted to these changes
temporally and spatially. Our paleodata can assist in evaluations of
the potential consequences of future global change and provide
assessments of the abilities of climate models to simulate past
changes.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/projects/ehyper.asp">https://www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/projects/ehyper.asp</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.bitsofscience.org/sea-level-rise-forecasts-for-2100-increase-7266/">Understanding
Sea Level Rise, p2: A short chronology of SLR forecasts for the
year 2100 (showing they increase with time</a></b><br>
It's safe to say that the greenhouse gases that we emit on a
decennium scale (for instance a doubling of fossil-fuel CO2
emissions over the 40-year time frame between 1970 and 2010) create
a sea level rise that will continue for millennia - and one that is
largely irreversible once that it's set in motion....<br>
'Somewhere' after the year 2100 this sea level rise is set to
gravely escalate - as paleoclimate comparisons indicate that even if
we manage to limit the warming to for instance 2 degrees Celsius
(bare in mind that nations' current Paris 2025/2030 emission targets
bring us en route to 3+ degrees - and natural climate-carbon
feedbacks (biosphere CO2, Arctic & ocean methane) may make
things far worse!) the new equilibrium state will be a world with a
sea level 10+, 20+, possibly 30+ metres higher than the one of today
- indeed wiping entire nations from the map, and many coastal
megacities across the globe....<br>
Meanwhile - if you're a politician - you should (by now) realise
there is clearly a growing pile of evidence that shows it's becoming
fully irresponsible to base policies (both mitigation and adaption
policies, coastal management to name one) on the conservative sea
level rise estimates of a decade ago...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.bitsofscience.org/sea-level-rise-forecasts-for-2100-increase-7266/">http://www.bitsofscience.org/sea-level-rise-forecasts-for-2100-increase-7266/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/fish-farm-has-60-days-to-fix-net-pens-outside-seattle-as-1-million-atlantic-salmon-move-in/">Fish
farm has 60 days to fix net pens outside Seattle as 1 million
Atlantic salmon move in </a></b><br>
Washington's Department of Natural Resources says Cooke Aquaculture
has 60 days to fix problems with its net-pen operation off
Bainbridge Island, or it risks losing its lease.<br>
Just a week after the state Department of Fish and Wildlife approved
shipment of 1 million more farmed Atlantic salmon to Cooke
Aquaculture's fish farm near Bainbridge Island, another state agency
says it has found a hole in the nets and corrosion in the structure
of the facility.<br>
The Department of Natural Resources on Monday notified Cooke that it
is in default of the terms of its lease at its Rich Passage
operation. It ordered the facility repaired within 60 days, or the
department may cancel the company's lease for the facility, which
operates over public bed lands.<br>
Cooke will proceed with the stocking the fish, company spokeswoman
Nell Halse said in an emailed statement. "We are meeting all permit
requirements."<br>
A portion of the same company's Cypress Island fish farm collapsed
on Aug. 19, releasing tens of thousands of farmed Atlantic salmon
into the Salish Sea between Anacortes and the San Juan islands. The
company had scheduled those net pens for total replacement because
of corrosion and other problems, and had already made emergency
repairs to the facility one month before they came apart. The
company had intended to make repairs after taking its harvest of
305,000 adult fish.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/fish-farm-has-60-days-to-fix-net-pens-outside-seattle-as-1-million-atlantic-salmon-move-in/">https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/fish-farm-has-60-days-to-fix-net-pens-outside-seattle-as-1-million-atlantic-salmon-move-in/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://youtu.be/NJo_w3lLyvo">This Day in Climate History
October 12, 2007 </a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
October 12, 2007: Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change win the Nobel Peace Prize.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/gkrXNbn3y6o">http://youtu.be/gkrXNbn3y6o</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/NJo_w3lLyvo">http://youtu.be/NJo_w3lLyvo</a></font><br>
<font size="+1"><i><br>
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