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<font size="+1"><i>October 18, 2017</i></font><br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://phys.org/news/2017-10-tropical-thunderstorms-stronger-worldwarms.html">Tropical
thunderstorms are set to grow stronger as the world warms</a></b><br>
Thunderstorms represent the dramatic release of energy stored in the
atmosphere. One measure of this stored energy is called "convective
available potential energy", or CAPE. The higher the CAPE, the more
energy is available to power updrafts in clouds. Fast updrafts move
ice particles in the cold, upper regions of a thunderstorm rapidly
upward and downward through the storm. This helps to separate
negatively and positively charged particles in the cloud and
eventually leads to lightning strikes.<br>
To create thunderstorms that cause damaging wind or hail ... a
second factor is also required... "vertical wind shear", ...and it
helps to organise thunderstorms so that their updrafts and
downdrafts become physically separated. This prevents the downdraft
from cutting off the energy source of the thunderstorm, allowing the
storm to persist for longer.<br>
These simulations predict that this century will bring a marked
increase in the frequency of conditions that favour severe
thunderstorms, unless greenhouse emissions can be significantly
reduced.<br>
Previous studies have made similar predictions for severe
thunderstorms in eastern Australia and the United States. But ours
is the first to study the tropics and subtropics as a whole, a
region that is characterised by some of the most powerful
thunderstorms on Earth.<br>
As the climate warms, the amount of water vapour required for cloud
formation increases. This is the result of a well-known
thermodynamic relationship called the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.
In a warmer climate this means the difference in the humidity
between the clouds and their surroundings becomes larger. As a
result, the mixing mechanism becomes more efficient in building up
the available energy. This, we argue, accounts for the increase in
CAPE seen in our model simulations.<br>
But it is clear that through our continued greenhouse gas emissions,
we are increasing the fuel available to the strongest thunderstorms.
Exactly how much stronger our future thunderstorms will ultimately
become remains to be seen.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2017-10-tropical-thunderstorms-stronger-worldwarms.html">https://phys.org/news/2017-10-tropical-thunderstorms-stronger-worldwarms.html</a></font><br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/climate-change-tropical-storm-thunderstorm-bigger-global-warming-study/87813/">(video)
Tropical thunderstorms are set to grow stronger, here's why</a></b><br>
The models predict that the energy available for thunderstorms will
increase as the Earth warms. But how much more intense will storms
actually become as a result?<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/climate-change-tropical-storm-thunderstorm-bigger-global-warming-study/87813/">https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/climate-change-tropical-storm-thunderstorm-bigger-global-warming-study/87813/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
Scientific American<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-wildfires-and-climate-change/">Here's
What We Know about Wildfires and Climate Change</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-wildfires-and-climate-change/">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-wildfires-and-climate-change/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-lawsuits/epa-head-seeks-to-avoid-settlements-with-green-groups-idUSKBN1CL2HK">EPA
Head Seeks to Avoid Settlements with Green Groups</a></b><br>
EPA chief Scott Pruitt is trying to end the practice of settling
lawsuits with environmental groups behind closed doors, claiming the
groups have had too much influence on regulation. "The days of
regulation through litigation are over," Pruitt said. <br>
EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, who sued the agency he now runs more
than a dozen times in his former job as attorney general of oil
producing Oklahoma, has long railed against the so-called practice
of "sue and settle." The EPA under former President Barack Obama
quietly settled lawsuits from environmental groups with little input
from regulated entities, such as power plants, and state
governments, he argues.<br>
The directive seeks to make EPA more transparent about lawsuits by
reaching out to states and industry that could be affected by
settlements, forbidding the practice of entering into settlements
that exceed the authority of courts, and excluding attorney's fees
and litigation costs when settling with groups.<br>
Most lawsuits by green groups on the agency seek to push the agency
to speed up regulation on issues such as climate and air and water
pollution, studies have shown.<br>
"The days of regulation through litigation are over," Pruitt said.
"We will no longer go behind closed doors and use consent decrees
and settlement agreements to resolve lawsuits filed against the
agency."<br>
Pruitt's order was supported by conservative groups.<br>
Daren Bakst, a research fellow in agricultural policy at the
Heritage Foundation think tank, said sue and settle has led to
"egregious antics" that have "effectively handed over the setting of
agency priorities to environmental pressure groups," and has led to
rushed rulemaking by the agency. <br>
But Pat Parenteau, an environmental law professor at the Vermont Law
School, said Pruitt's directive would be "counterproductive" and
costly because in the end courts could fine the agency if it does
not meet compliance dates for issuing regulations.<br>
"He can fight it if he wants as long as he wants, and spend as much
money as he wants," Parenteau said. "But in the end if you've missed
a statutory deadline, you are going to be ordered (by a court) to
comply and then you are going to be ordered to pay fees."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-lawsuits/epa-head-seeks-to-avoid-settlements-with-green-groups-idUSKBN1CL2HK">http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-lawsuits/epa-head-seeks-to-avoid-settlements-with-green-groups-idUSKBN1CL2HK</a></font><br>
<br>
<b><br>
</b><b> </b><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/climate-change-billions-dollars-road-repairs">Climate
change costing billions in extra road repairs</a></b><br>
By David Trilling<br>
When engineers build roads, they use weather models to decide what
kind of pavement can withstand the local climate. Currently, many
American engineers use temperature data from 1964 to 1995 to select
materials. But the climate is changing.<br>
...road engineers have selected materials inappropriate for current
temperatures 35 percent of the time over the past two decades.<br>
"At present, engineers assume a stationary climate when selecting
pavement materials, meaning that they may be embedding an inherent
negative performance bias in pavements for decades to come,"
Underwood and his colleagues write. Some of their findings:<br>
Failing to adapt to warmer temperatures is adding 3 to 9 percent to
the cost of building and maintaining a road over 30 years.<br>
The authors use two models of predicted warmer temperatures, which
suggest between $13.6 and $35.8 billion in extra or
earlier-than-normal repairs will be required for roads being built
under the current models. In the lower-temperature warming model,
this translates to an annual extra cost of between $0.8 billion and
$1.3 billion; in the higher-temperature warming model, it is an
annual extra cost of between $0.8 billion and $2.1 billion.<br>
A road built to last 20 years will require repairs after 14 to 17
years under these models.<br>
In some cases, government transportation agencies are paying too
much for materials to withstand cold temperatures that do not
currently (and perhaps no longer) exist.<br>
Because municipal governments in the United States work on tighter
road-maintenance budgets than state and federal transportation
departments, the extra financial strain will largely impact cities
and towns.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/climate-change-billions-dollars-road-repairs">https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/climate-change-billions-dollars-road-repairs</a></font><br>
<br>
<b><br>
Harvard Business Review<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://hbr.org/2017/10/the-6-ways-business-leaders-talk-about-sustainability">The
6 Ways Business Leaders Talk About Sustainability</a><br>
</b>John Elkington<br>
Capitalists focus on the financial returns from capital invested,
and most business leaders prioritize issues that are financially
material. For anyone with a pension linked to market performance,
that is a good thing. But this single-minded focus can be a major
problem when it comes to tackling slow-building, systemic
challenges, like global warming, that could take down not just
supply chains but, over time, entire economies.<br>
A critical first step is to understand the different mental and
political frames currently in play. My colleagues and I see at
least six main frames at work in the sustainable business space.
..Having a clearer grasp of these mental models can help business
leaders to work with others, both inside and outside their
organizations, to build more sustainable businesses.<br>
<b>- The Resource Frame</b> ...The focus of people using a
resources frame to understand sustainability is often on waste
reduction and technological innovation. <br>
<b>- The Time Frame </b>... Successful business leaders must
evolve a much more expansive view of time, no easy task. One way to
expand your thinking is to look to the UN Sustainable Development
Goals, whose time horizon is 2030; think of them as a purchase order
from the future. <br>
<b>- The Value Frame </b> Firms like [PUMA]... have created tools
like Environmental Profit & Loss (EP&L) statements and
Social Return on Investment (SROI) to capture a more complete
picture of their businesses. ..Be wary of pricing everything that
moves in the environment and focusing too much on costs. Expand the
focus from today's business case for action to tomorrow's business
models. Help colleagues see the sustainability challenge as
potentially the biggest opportunity of their lifetimes.<br>
<b>- The Design Frame </b> ... modelling 100 climate change
solutions, alongside our own work on Carbon Productivity - exploring
how we can best invest increasingly limited carbon budgets for
environmental, social and economic returns. Another example includes
and biomimicry - using lessons Nature learned over 3.8 billion years
of evolution to find solutions for climate change. Challenges of
this frame: Design is crucial, but market acceptance will depend on
economics and politics. Work to get those right, too.<br>
<b>- The Abundance Frame </b> ... world of exponential
(breakthrough) solutions to exponential (breakdown) challenges, with
pioneers including the XPRIZE Foundation, Singularity University,
and Google's X facility. This worldview is powerfully shaped by
excitement around the potential of emerging technologies like
machine learning and artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet
of things, autonomous vehicles, and synthetic biology.<br>
There will almost certainly be unintended consequences to any major
breakthrough, with even exponential entrepreneurs like Elon Musk
expressing growing concern about the societal implications of AI and
robotics.<br>
<b>- The Moral Frame</b> ... growing concern that many leaders have
lost their moral compass. Ever since ... The Theory of Moral
Sentiments, preceding The Wealth of Nations, we have known that
unregulated capitalist values can be destructive. ...At a time
when some MBA courses still treat business ethics as a sort of
sheep-dip treatment for students, an elective, be careful not to
sound moralistic or missionary. And regularly test your moral
compass readings with stakeholders likely to be affected by the
outcomes of your decisions.<br>
Ultimately, the psychology and cultural anthropology of change will
be every bit as important as the politics and economics.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://hbr.org/2017/10/the-6-ways-business-leaders-talk-about-sustainability">https://hbr.org/2017/10/the-6-ways-business-leaders-talk-about-sustainability</a></font><br>
<b><br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-skeptics-want-more-co2/">Climate
Skeptics Want More CO2</a></b><br>
A key argument used to downplay the consequences of climate change
is resurfacing<br>
It's true that an increase in available carbon dioxide can be a boon
for plants, which need it to make the food they turn into energy. In
fact, recent research published in Nature Climate Change has
suggested that rising CO2 levels have contributed to a global
"greening" over the last few decades, or an increase in the leaves
on trees and other plants, particularly in the rapidly warming
Arctic.<br>
But the idea that increasing CO2 will be a pure advantage for plants
everywhere ignores the negative side effects that human-induced
climate change may have on vegetation. In fact, research suggests
that plants in some parts of the world - including some staple food
crops for people - may actually come out the worse for it.<br>
Another 2016 paper in Nature Communications, focusing on agriculture
in the United States, suggested that high temperatures may cause
severe reductions in the production of certain major crops,
including corn and soybeans. And the research indicated that higher
CO2 concentrations would not be enough to significantly offset these
losses.<br>
Some research has also suggested that rising CO2 concentrations may
even affect the nutritional value of crops, Anderegg pointed out,
with potential health consequences for the humans who rely on them
for food. A 2014 paper in Nature suggested that some beans and
grains have lower concentrations of zinc and iron when they're grown
under elevated CO2 concentrations.<br>
But as far as plants are concerned, Anderegg also noted that while
the science is still emerging, "on the whole, I think there's a
general understanding that the impacts of climate change are
materializing sooner and are more severe than they were a decade or
two ago."<br>
"The rosy optimistic scenarios where CO2 'wins' do exist, but there
are also plenty of scenarios where drought and temperature and
disturbances combined basically push global plants into accelerating
climate change," he added.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-skeptics-want-more-co2/">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-skeptics-want-more-co2/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-10-17/preparing-for-floods-droughts-and-water-shortages-by-working-with-rather-than-against-nature/">Preparing
for Floods, Droughts and Water Shortages by Working with, Rather
than Against, Nature</a></b><br>
By Sandra Postel on Oct 17, 2017 <br>
If disasters related to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather
seem more common globally, it's because they are: according to a
United Nations study, between 2005 and 2014, an average of 335
weather-related disasters occurred per year, nearly twice the level
recorded from 1985 to 1995.<br>
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the changes in weather
patterns and water flows that we're beginning to see as the planet
warms call into question the very assumptions that have underpinned
our water projects for decades. In 2008, seven top water scientists
argued persuasively in the journal Science that "stationarity"-the
foundational concept that hydrologic systems vary and fluctuate
within a known set of boundaries-is dead. When it comes to water, in
other words, the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-10-17/preparing-for-floods-droughts-and-water-shortages-by-working-with-rather-than-against-nature/">http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-10-17/preparing-for-floods-droughts-and-water-shortages-by-working-with-rather-than-against-nature/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGyltbdkxta2IZXiv6EATiUiURplkNXN6&disable_polymer=true">Academic
Video Playlist: Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences MIT</a></b><br>
Published on Mar 16, 2016<i><br>
</i>"Solving our Climate Challenges: Role of Basic Research"<i><br>
comment: MIT hosts this important series of lectures... It's
college level but not rocket surgery, but stay tuned because there
are moments eloquent expression. Generally, if curious or
concerned it's really interesting - academic anxiety at it's most
perfect. It's all understandable.</i><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGyltbdkxta2IZXiv6EATiUiURplkNXN6&disable_polymer=true">https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGyltbdkxta2IZXiv6EATiUiURplkNXN6&disable_polymer=true</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://sdg.iisd.org/news/comprehensive-climate-risk-insurance-database-launched/">Comprehensive
Climate Risk Insurance Database Launched</a></b><br>
The Climate Insurance database aims to contribute to "successful and
sustainable" climate risk insurance projects in climate-vulnerable
countries through sharing best practice, and find innovative
solutions.<br>
The database claims to be the first independent, comprehensive
source of information on the numerous types of climate risk
insurance available, compiling information from several
international organizations.<br>
The database includes factsheets, videos and reports, compiled in a
searchable online catalogue that users can filter by type, topic,
country, region or organization.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://sdg.iisd.org/news/comprehensive-climate-risk-insurance-database-launched/">http://sdg.iisd.org/news/comprehensive-climate-risk-insurance-database-launched/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.inverse.com/article/37463-conspiracy-beliefs-illusory-pattern-perception">Conspiracy
Theorists Have a Fundamental Cognitive Problem, Say Scientists</a></b><br>
And it can affect all of us.<br>
By Sarah Sloat on October 17, 2017<br>
The world's a scary, unpredictable place, and that makes your brain
mad. As a predictive organ, the brain is on the constant lookout for
patterns that both explain the world and help you thrive in it. That
ability helps humans make sense of the world: For example, you
probably understand by now that if you see red, that means that you
should be on the lookout for danger.<br>
But as scientists report in a new paper published in the European
Journal of Social Psychology, sometimes people sense danger even
when there is no pattern to recognize - and so their brains create
their own. This phenomenon, called illusory pattern perception, they
write, is what drives people who believe in conspiracy theories,
like climate change deniers, 9/11 truthers, and "Pizzagate"
believers.<br>
The study is especially timely: Recent polls suggest that nearly 50
percent of ordinary, nonpathological Americans believe in at least
one conspiracy theory.<br>
Illusory pattern perception - the act of seeking patterns that
aren't there - has been linked to belief in conspiracy theories
before, but that assumption has never really been supported with
empirical evidence. The British and Dutch scientists behind the new
study are some of the first to show that this explanation is in fact
correct...<br>
The researchers came to this conclusions after conducting five
studies on 264 Americans that focused on the relationship between
irrational beliefs and illusory pattern perception. Initial studies
revealed that the compulsion to find patterns in an observable
situation was in fact correlated with irrational beliefs: People who
saw patterns in random coin tosses and chaotic, abstract paintings
were more likely to believe in conspiratorial and supernatural
theories.<br>
Fortunately, other scientists have found a way to block the
pervasiveness of illusory pattern perception: critical thinking. In
a previous interview, North Carolina State University psychology
professor Anne McLaughlin told Inverse that critical thinking is
something that can be taught, and if people are trained in the right
way, pseudoscience and false conspiracies can be combated with logic
and reasoning. The brain may try to make false connections, but that
doesn't mean you have to believe it.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.inverse.com/article/37463-conspiracy-beliefs-illusory-pattern-perception">https://www.inverse.com/article/37463-conspiracy-beliefs-illusory-pattern-perception</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/06/21/1101930/-A-Greenhouse-Effect-Warning-from-1983">This
Day in Climate History October 18, 1983</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
October 18, 1983: In what would be one of her last "News Digest"<br>
broadcasts, NBC anchor Jessica Savitch mentions a recently released<br>
EPA report on the consequences of carbon pollution.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/2w4pFNCzhTg?t=43s">https://youtu.be/2w4pFNCzhTg?t=43s</a> <br>
-<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/06/21/1101930/-A-Greenhouse-Effect-Warning-from-1983">A
Greenhouse Effect Warning from 1983</a></b><br>
By soarbird <br>
While cleaning out my office the other day, I found a yellowed
newspaper clipping with the headline, "Greenhouse effect viewed with
alarm." The article was dated Oct. 18, 1983:<br>
<blockquote>WASHINGTON (AP) -- A potentially catastrophic warming
of the Earth will start in the 1990s, disrupting food production
and raising coastal waters as the polar icecaps melt, the federal
government said in a report released today.<br>
The study by the Environmental Protection Agency said the climatic
changes from the so-called "greenhouse effect" are unavoidable and
warned that the United States and other countries must begin
searching now for ways to mitigate the impact.<br>
The report, titled "Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming?" concluded
that even as drastic and unlikely a step as a total ban on coal
burning would delay by only 15 years a 3.6 degree increase in
average worldwide temperatures.<br>
While other government studies have warned that the greenhouse
effect was a potential problem, the EPA report is the first to
state with certainty that the warming will occur no matter what.<br>
The EPA study is based on earlier projections by the National
Academy of Sciences that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the air -
which could occur by the middle of the next century - would raise
present world temperatures within a range of 2.7 degrees to 8.1
degrees Fahrenheit.<br>
This result is known as the greenhouse effect because carbon
dioxide acts like the glass in a greenhouse allowing the sun’s
warming rays to reach earth but not allowing the heat to escape.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/06/21/1101930/-A-Greenhouse-Effect-Warning-from-1983">https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/06/21/1101930/-A-Greenhouse-Effect-Warning-from-1983</a><br>
<br>
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