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<font size="+1"><i>November 3, 2017</i></font><b><br>
</b><b><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/02/climate-change-will-create-worlds-biggest-refugee-crisis">Climate
change 'will create world's biggest refugee crisis'</a></b><br>
Experts warn refugees could number tens of millions in the next
decade, and call for a new legal framework to protect the most
vulnerable.<br>
Tens of millions of people will be forced from their homes by
climate change in the next decade, creating the biggest refugee
crisis the world has ever seen, according to a new report.<br>
Senior US military and security experts have told the Environmental
Justice Foundation (EJF) study that the number of climate refugees
will dwarf those that have fled the Syrian conflict, bringing huge
challenges to Europe.<br>
"If Europe thinks they have a problem with migration today … wait 20
years," said retired US military corps brigadier general Stephen
Cheney. "See what happens when climate change drives people out of
Africa - the Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially - and we're talking
now not just one or two million, but 10 or 20 [million]. They are
not going to south Africa, they are going across the
Mediterranean."...<br>
Although the report highlights to growing impact of climate change
on people in the Middle East and Africa, it says changing weather
patterns - like the hurricanes that devastated parts of the US this
year - prove richer nations are not immune from climate change.<br>
But Trent said that although climate change undoubtedly posed an
"existential threat to our world" it was not to late to take
decisive action.<br>
"By taking strong ambitious steps now to phase out greenhouse gas
emissions and building an international legal mechanism to protect
climate refugees we will protect the poorest and most vulnerable in
our global society, build resilience, reap massive economic benefits
and build a safe and secure future for our planet. Climate change
will not wait. Neither can we. For climate refugees, tomorrow is too
late."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/02/climate-change-will-create-worlds-biggest-refugee-crisis">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/02/climate-change-will-create-worlds-biggest-refugee-crisis</a></font><br>
-<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/research-publications/uprooted-by-climate-change-responding-to-the-growing-risk-of-displacement/">Uprooted
by Climate Change: Responding to the growing risk of
displacement</a></b><br>
Climate change is already forcing people from their land and homes,
and putting many more at risk of displacement in the future.<br>
Supercharged storms, more intense droughts, rising seas and other
impacts of climate change all magnify existing vulnerabilities and
the likelihood of displacement, disproportionately affecting
low-income countries, women, children and indigenous peoples.
Responding to these growing realities demands far stronger action
towards ending global climate pollution, supporting resilient
communities, ensuring rights for people on the move and developing
long-term strategies to ensure that those who are forced to move in
the future are able to do so safely and with dignity.<br>
Publication date November 2, 2017<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/static/media/files/bp-uprooted-by-climate-change-031117-en.pdf">Download
Uprooted by Climate Change: Responding to the growing risk of
displacement </a> <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/static/media/files/bp-uprooted-by-climate-change-031117-en.pdf">https://www.oxfamamerica.org/static/media/files/bp-uprooted-by-climate-change-031117-en.pdf</a></font><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/research-publications/uprooted-by-climate-change-responding-to-the-growing-risk-of-displacement/">https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/research-publications/uprooted-by-climate-change-responding-to-the-growing-risk-of-displacement/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/11/01/business/01reuters-climatechange-refining.html?_r=0">Quarter
of Oil Refineries Risk Closure Under Climate Goals-Report</a></b><br>
By REUTERS NOV. 1, 2017<br>
LONDON - A quarter of the world's oil refineries risk closure by
2035 if governments meet targets to limit fossil fuel burning in the
fight against global warming, a report released on Thursday said.<br>
A surge in electric vehicle sales and higher efficiency in internal
combustion and jet engines are expected to slow demand growth for
fuels such as gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel in the coming
decades, potentially putting pressure on refining profits.<br>
At the same time, governments around the world are set to introduce
legislation in the coming years to limit emissions of heat-capturing
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in order to meet targets set at a
U.N-backed Paris conference in 2015.<br>
As a result, companies such as Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, France'
Total and China's largest refiner Sinopec could see profits from
refining drop by 70 percent or more over the period, according to
the report co-authored by environment thinktank Carbon Tracker,
Swedish investment fund AP7 and Danish pension fund PKA.<br>
The study is based on the International Energy Agency's 450 Scenario
to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius under which oil demand
declines by 23 percent between 2020 and 2035.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/11/01/business/01reuters-climatechange-refining.html?_r=0">https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/11/01/business/01reuters-climatechange-refining.html?_r=0</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
Carbon Tracker Reports:<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/margin-call-refining-capacity-2-degree-world/">Margin
call: Refining Capacity in a 2 degrees C world</a></b><br>
What does a 2 degrees C scenario mean for future refining capacity?<br>
In this paper, we look at how a scenario for oil demand that is
compliant with limiting the rise in global warming by 2035 to 2
degrees C (a "2D" scenario) might affect the oil industry's refining
assets. The IEA's 450 Scenario is used as the basis of 2D demand,
under which oil demand peaks in 2020 and declines at 1.3% p.a.
thereafter. This follows on from our recent analysis '2 Degrees of
Separation' which focused on the upstream activities of the sector.<br>
At the simplest level:<br>
<b>lower oil volume = less refining capacity = smaller margins</b><b><br>
</b><b>Less volume = fewer refineries needed</b><br>
Under a 2D scenario, global oil demand could decline by 23% over a
15 year period. Historically, falling or weak demand has often been
accompanied by weak refining margins. With demand falling, refinery
output would need to fall commensurately. Market forces would drive
margins down in order to force the least competitive refiners out of
the market. Accordingly, under a 2D scenario, the industry is likely
to see major rationalisation with many players exiting the market
rather than haemorrhaging cash. Our analysis implies rationalisation
equivalent to 25% of 2016 capacity.<br>
<b>Margins suffer across the board</b><br>
To drive this rationalisation, we estimate that a sustained refinery
margin contraction of the order of $3.50/barrel by 2035 would be
necessary. This compares to a global composite margin in 2016 of
$5.00/bbl. We consider this estimate to be conservative. For
example, BP's history of global refining margins since 1990 shows an
annual standard deviation of nearly $5/barrel. Past periods of weak
demand have led to higher declines in margins. For example, in 2008
US demand fell by 5%: BP's US indicator margin fell by over
$6/barrel. [1]<br>
<b>Earnings fall</b><br>
The combination of reduced refining throughputs and the consequent
fall in margins could have profound implications for the industry.
We estimate that EBITDA for the refineries we have analysed (94% of
2015 global capacity) could fall by over 50% by 2035 from an
estimated $147bn in 2015. There is likely to be a fall in valuations
of refinery assets of a similar order although the impact will be
disproportionate. Complex refineries, which tend to have higher
margins, are likely to suffer least; simple, low quality assets
could become worthless.<br>
<b>Transport fuel most profitable but most at risk</b><br>
Diesel, gasoline and jet fuel products offer the highest margins
across the product mix from refineries, and they also constitute
around 70% of global product yield. As covered in our previous
research 'Expect the unexpected' the rate of technological change in
road transport may surprise the industry and erode demand for these
fuels faster than currently anticipated.<br>
<b>OECD capacity hit hardest</b><br>
Under a 2D scenario the existing refinery stock is already
sufficient to meet future demand; no new refinery capacity needs to
be added globally. However, differences in regional demand trends
may mean that new capacity is needed in areas such as the Middle
East and Asia. Some countries may add new unprofitable capacity for
strategic reasons such as security of supply. As a result, mature
regions, predominantly within the OECD, are likely to need larger
cuts than the global demand trend might imply. Were this to occur,
the eventual reduction in capacity needed to balance the market
would be that much greater. In such a market, refining margins would
most likely be lower than would be the case in a rational market....<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/margin-call-refining-capacity-2-degree-world/">https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/margin-call-refining-capacity-2-degree-world/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/02/trump-campaign-aide-clovis-withdraws-from-consideration-for-usda-job-244458">Trump
campaign aide Clovis withdraws from consideration for USDA job</a></b><br>
Former Trump campaign aide Sam Clovis has withdrawn from
consideration to be the Department of Agriculture's chief scientist,
according to a letter Clovis sent on Wednesday to President Donald
Trump.<br>
Clovis has come under criticism recently for his lack of science
credentials and for his role supervising George Papadopoulos, a
Trump campaign foreign policy adviser who struck a plea deal on
charges he lied to FBI investigators about his communications with
Russia-linked contacts.<br>
"The political climate inside Washington has made it impossible for
me to receive balanced and fair consideration for this position,"
Clovis wrote. "The relentless assaults on you and your team seem to
be a blood sport that only increases in intensity each day."<br>
<font size="-1"><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/02/trump-campaign-aide-clovis-withdraws-from-consideration-for-usda-job-244458">https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/02/trump-campaign-aide-clovis-withdraws-from-consideration-for-usda-job-244458</a></font><br>
<br>
<b><br>
</b><b> </b><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/sustainable-finance-can-socially-responsible-investing-mitigate-climate-change">Sustainable
finance: Can socially responsible investing mitigate climate
change?</a></b><br>
...Climate change may ultimately be a crisis of the capitalist
system. The naturally omnipotent financial structures that have,
without grace, risen to the top of such a system have been fuelled
by one source: investment. But as far as the crisis of climate goes,
we are in too deep and we have not enough time to shift our
political or financial paradigm. If we are to pivot on our path in
time to make a real difference, great and global in scale, we must
harness the forces that drive our markets today. In this, socially
responsible investment practices are a crucial tool in bringing our
financial system in line with our own social goals. Together,
allocation of capital and changing public attitude could be highly
influential in our fight to mitigate climate change....<br>
More recently, socially responsible investing, known as SRI, has
taken a strong hold. At COP21 auxiliary events, the number of
investment firms advocating this strategy, and those encompassed by
the term under different names - such as green or sustainable
investment - astonished me: socially responsible investment is
growing and here to stay..<br>
The power of SRI lies in the way it combines disinvestment
(divestment) with the next, crucial step: reinvestment. Managers are
not sending money directly to companies when they buy up shares
(unless it is an initial public offering (IPO)). ...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/sustainable-finance-can-socially-responsible-investing-mitigate-climate-change">https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/sustainable-finance-can-socially-responsible-investing-mitigate-climate-change</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-climate-post-ahead-of-bonn-talks-study-says-paris_us_59fb7782e4b01ec0dede4092">The
Climate Post: Ahead of Bonn Talks, Study Says Paris Agreement
May Fall Short</a></b><br>
As the United Nations prepares to welcome delegates from across the
world to Bonn, Germany, on Monday for the annual Conference of
Parties meeting (COP23), the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) has
released its yearly "Emissions Gap" report indicating a disparity
between the world's stated ambitions on climate in the Paris
Agreement and what actions are actually needed.<br>
The report indicates the present national pledges under the
agreement are only one third of the reduction in emissions required
by 2030 to meet targets, which aim to limit global warming to well
below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue
efforts to limit that increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The pledges
by countries, it says, would lead to temperature rises of as much as
3 degrees Celsius or more by the end of this century, but it would
make the chance of getting to 4 degrees Celsius or more of warming
considerably smaller.<br>
Although the gap between commitments could be large, the report
suggests that it is still possible to close it in a cost-effective
way. A large portion of reductions come from six specific efforts:
solar energy; wind energy; efficient appliances; efficient passenger
cars; aforestation; and stopping deforestation.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-climate-post-ahead-of-bonn-talks-study-says-paris_us_59fb7782e4b01ec0dede4092">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-climate-post-ahead-of-bonn-talks-study-says-paris_us_59fb7782e4b01ec0dede4092</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-02/degrowth-as-an-aesthetics-of-existence-part-2/">Degrowth
as an Aesthetics of Existence: Part 2</a></b><br>
By Samuel Alexander on Nov 02, 2017 03:09 am<br>
If it turns out, however, that neither art nor science can provoke
the transformations needed to avoid the looming apocalypse, then the
role of the artist will only magnify further, as creative
imaginations are tasked with interpreting and understanding
civilizational descent in terms that give meaning to the
inevitability of suffering; give sense to the pain we will feel
(perhaps are already feeling) as global capitalism dies its
inevitable death...<br>
<span style="color: rgb(20, 20, 20); font-family: Montserrat,
sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline !important; float: none;">Ed note: this
is Part 2 of the Introduction to Samuel Alexanders' new book </span><em
style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(20, 20, 20);
font-family: Montserrat, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial;"><a
href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/0994160690/ref=cm_sw_su_dp"
target="_blank" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: border-box;
background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 62, 79);
text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.15s ease; outline:
-webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;
-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.25);">Art Against
Empire: Toward an Aesthetics of Degrowth</a>. Part 1 of the
essay can be found on Resilience.org<span> </span><a
href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-01/degrowth-as-an-aesthetics-of-existence-part-1/"
style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent;
color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none; transition: all
0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.25);">here</a>.
This essay was also published as a Melbourne Sustainable Society
monograph in .pdf format<a
href="http://d2hqr0jocqnenz.cloudfront.net/cdn/farfuture/utNz-IulFkNTwW6i5TBfnJxYCejyn0Teo_SnIpRxUmM/mtime:1508818942/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-Monograph-Aesthetics_of_Existence_2017.pdf"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">here</a>.</em><br>
...If it turns out, however, that neither art nor science can
provoke the transformations needed to avoid the looming apocalypse,
then the role of the artist will only magnify further, as creative
imaginations are tasked with interpreting and understanding
civilizational descent in terms that give meaning to the
inevitability of suffering; give sense to the pain we will feel
(perhaps are already feeling) as global capitalism dies its
inevitable death. At that stage, the therapeutic or even spiritual
role of art will take precedence over its political function, a
transition anticipated already by the Dark Mountain (2017) movement.
The very term 'apocalypse' has a dual meaning, not simply referring
to the 'end of the world' but also signifying 'a great unveiling or
disclosure' of knowledge. It will be the artist, not the scientist,
I contend, who will contribute most to the human understanding of
such a disclosure when, or if, it arrives. Rather than wallow
helplessly as civilisation descends into barbarism, let us hope that
our artists, novelists, poets, and filmmakers, are up to the task of
weaving narratives of human and ecological suffering into a
meaningful web of solidarity and compassion-and thereby, perhaps,
give birth to a new golden age of Grecian tragedy that offers both
an education and cleansing of the emotions and passions in these
turbulent times (Aristotle 1997).<br>
Perhaps that is the new dawn that lies beyond this dark hour.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-02/degrowth-as-an-aesthetics-of-existence-part-2/">http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-11-02/degrowth-as-an-aesthetics-of-existence-part-2/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2012/11/chris-hayes-whats-at-stake-with-climate.html">This
Day in Climate History November 3, 2012 </a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/03/opinion/safina-sandy-said-the-words/?c=&page=0">http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/03/opinion/safina-sandy-said-the-words/?c=&page=0</a><br>
On MSNBC's "Up," Chris Hayes lays out the moral case for action on<br>
climate change.<br>
Carbon emissions are trapping extra energy in our atmosphere, and
with extra energy come more extremes: higher sea levels, dryer
droughts, hotter heat waves, and heavier, wetter storms.<br>
We need a crash program in this country right now to re-engineer the
nation's infrastructure to cope with and prepare for the climate
disruptions that we have already ensured with the carbon we've
already put into the atmosphere, as well as an immediate, aggressive
transformation of our energy production, economy and society to
reduce the amount of carbon we'll put into the atmosphere in the
future.<br>
This is as fundamental, as elemental as human endeavors get. The
story of civilization is the long tale of crusaders for order
battling the unceasing reality of chaos. And it is a kind of miracle
that we have succeeded as much as we have, that airplanes fly
through the air, and roads plunge beneath the water and the entire
teeming latticework of human life exists in the manifold improbable
places it does. But it is the grand irony that in imposing this
improbable order on the world, we've released millions of years of
stored up carbon into the atmosphere, which is now altering the
climate and threatening the very monuments of civilization that we
so cherish.<br>
We absolutely have it within us, collectively, to beat back the
forces of chaos once again. But we must choose to do so. And the
time for choosing is now. You are either on the side of your fellow
citizens and residents of this planet, or you are on the side of the
storms as yet unnamed.<br>
You cannot be neutral.<br>
Which side are you on?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/11/03/whats-at-stake-with-climate-change/">http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/11/03/whats-at-stake-with-climate-change/</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://video.msnbc.msn.com/up/49672392#49672392">http://video.msnbc.msn.com/up/49672392#49672392</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2012/11/chris-hayes-whats-at-stake-with-climate.html">http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2012/11/chris-hayes-whats-at-stake-with-climate.html</a></font><br>
<font size="+1"><i><br>
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