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<font size="+1"><i>November 30, 2017<br>
</i></font> <br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/29/banks-warned-of-regulatory-action-as-climate-change-bites-global-economy">Banks
warned of 'regulatory action' as climate change bites global
economy</a></b><br>
Australia's financial regulator has stepped-up its warning to banks,
lenders and insurers, saying climate change is already impacting the
global economy, and flagged the possibility of "regulatory action".<br>
Geoff Summerhayes from the Australian Prudential Regulation
Authority (Apra) revealed it had begun quizzing companies about
their actions to assess climate risks, noting it would be demanding
more in the future.<br>
Apra also revealed it has established an internal working group to
assess the financial risk from climate change and was coordinating
an interagency initiative with the corporate watchdog Asic, the
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and federal Treasury to examine what
risks climate change was posing to Australia's economy.<br>
He said the inter-agency initiative created between Apra, Asic, the
RBA and Treasury would investigate whether companies are taking
steps to protect themselves and their customers from the physical,
transitional and liability risks caused by climate change.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/29/banks-warned-of-regulatory-action-as-climate-change-bites-global-economy">https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/29/banks-warned-of-regulatory-action-as-climate-change-bites-global-economy</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/partisan-maps-2016/">New
maps of climate opinions by political party, Partisan Opinion
Maps 2016 (Yale)</a></b><br>
Today we are pleased to announce the publication of a new article:
"The spatial distribution of U.S. Republican and Democratic climate
opinions at state and local scales" in the journal <em>Climatic
Change Letters</em>, as well as the launch of <a
href="https://yale.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=78464048a89f4b58b97123336&id=cff92a10e7&e=8595955670"
target="_blank" style="color: #336699;font-weight:
normal;text-decoration: underline;">a new interactive set of maps.</a><br>
The paper and maps describe the distribution of both Democratic and
Republican opinions on climate change across all US states and
congressional districts. The maps illustrate, for example, that 69%
of Democrats in Alabama believe climate change is happening, but
that is the lowest percentage of any states; in Oregon and
California 88% of Democrats believe it is happening, and in Texas,
it's 82%.<br>
Republicans are less convinced overall, but there is substantial
spatial variability in their beliefs as well - for example, 62% of
New York Republicans believe global warming is happening, while only
48% of Republicans in Nebraska and Kansas agree. And at the
congressional district level, Republican views of climate change are
even more heterogeneous, as the map below illustrates:<br>
The new results build on our prior work (e.g., Howe et al. 2013, and
Mildenberger et al., 2015) that estimated climate change opinions at
state and local scales among the general population. This project,
however, for the first time, maps spatial variations in opinion
within the populations of Democrats and Republicans respectively.
The article and the maps should provide new insights into the
political dynamics of climate change opinion and suggest new
opportunities for bipartisan conversations about how to best address
this critical challenge.<br>
Mildenberger, M., Howe, P., Marlon, J., & Leiserowitz, A. (2017)
The spatial distribution of Republican and Democratic climate and
energy opinions at state and local scales. <em>Climatic Change
Letters</em>. <a
href="https://yale.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=78464048a89f4b58b97123336&id=e85d0deb48&e=8595955670"
style="color: #336699;font-weight: normal;text-decoration:
underline;">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2103-0</a>.<br>
Please visit the <a
href="https://yale.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=78464048a89f4b58b97123336&id=b3b00512c9&e=8595955670"
target="_blank" style="color: #336699;font-weight:
normal;text-decoration: underline;">online interactive maps</a> to
explore these partisan climate change opinions where you live and
across the nation. The article is available <a
href="https://yale.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=78464048a89f4b58b97123336&id=a18a17ba15&e=8595955670"
style="color: #336699;font-weight: normal;text-decoration:
underline;">here</a> to those with a subscription to <em>Climatic
Change Letters</em>. If you would like to request a copy, please
send an email to <a href="mailto:climatechange@yale.edu"
style="color: #336699;font-weight: normal;text-decoration:
underline;">climatechange@yale.edu</a>, with the Subject Line:
Request Political Maps Paper.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/partisan-maps-2016/">http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/partisan-maps-2016/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/29/new-study-uncovers-the-keystone-domino-strategy-of-climate-denial">New
study uncovers the 'keystone domino' strategy of climate denial</a></b><br>
How climate denial blogs misinform so many people with such poor
scientific arguments.<br>
Dana Nuccitelli<br>
<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Guardian
Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size: medium;
font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">The body of evidence supporting
human-caused global warming<span> </span></span><a
href="https://skepticalscience.com/big-picture.html"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); touch-action: manipulation;
color: rgb(0, 86, 137); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none
!important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220);
transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out; font-family:
"Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">is
vast</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family:
"Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span> </span>- too vast for climate
denial blogs to attack it all. Instead they focus on what<span> </span></span><a
href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/bix133/4644513"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); touch-action: manipulation;
color: rgb(0, 86, 137); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none
!important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220);
transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out; font-family:
"Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">a
new study</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family:
"Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"> published in the journal Bioscience
calls "keystone dominoes." These are individual pieces of evidence
that capture peoples' attention, like polar bears. The authors
write:</span><br>
<blockquote>"These topics are used as "proxies" for AGW
[human-caused global warming] in general; in other words, they
represent keystone dominoes that are strategically placed in front
of many hundreds of others, each representing a separate line of
evidence for AGW. By appearing to knock over the keystone domino,
audiences targeted by the communication may assume all other
dominoes are toppled in a form of "dismissal by association."<br>
</blockquote>
<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Guardian
Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size: medium;
font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">Basically, if these bloggers can create
the perception that the science underlying polar bear or Arctic
sea ice vulnerability to climate change is incorrect, their
readers will assume that all of climate science is fatally flawed.
And blogs can be relatively influential - surveys have shown that
blog readers trust them more than traditional news and information
sources.</span><br>
<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Guardian
Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size: medium;
font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">Indeed, the scientific research is quite
clear that Arctic sea ice is in the midst of a rapid decline<span> </span></span><a
href="https://www.skepticalscience.com/Arctic-sea-ice-melt-natural-or-man-made-intermediate.htm"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); touch-action: manipulation;
color: rgb(0, 86, 137); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none
!important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220);
transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out; font-family:
"Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">due
primarily to human-caused global warming</a><span style="color:
rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Guardian Text Egyptian
Web", Georgia, serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline !important; float: none;">. Because polar
bears rely on sea ice to hunt seals, global warming also threatens
their species. While some polar bear sub-populations are stable
thus far,<span> </span></span><a
href="http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/status/population-map.html"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); touch-action: manipulation;
color: rgb(0, 86, 137); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none
!important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220);
transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out; font-family:
"Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">others
are declining</a><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family:
"Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">, and<span> </span></span><a
href="https://www.skepticalscience.com/polar-bears-global-warming.htm"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); touch-action: manipulation;
color: rgb(0, 86, 137); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none
!important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220);
transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out; font-family:
"Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">that
trend will only accelerate as sea ice continues to disappear</a><span
style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Guardian Text
Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size: medium; font-style:
normal; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">...</span><br>
Nevertheless, climate denial can be influential, and<span> </span><a
href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/10/04/public-views-on-climate-change-and-climate-scientists/"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(0, 86, 137); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none
!important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220);
transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out;">climate scientists
remain trusted sources</a>. Their responses to scientific
misinformation can be powerful. For example,<span> </span><a
href="https://climatefeedback.org/" data-link-name="in body link"
class="u-underline" style="background: transparent; touch-action:
manipulation; color: rgb(0, 86, 137); cursor: pointer;
text-decoration: none !important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid
rgb(220, 220, 220); transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out;">Climate
Feedback</a><span> </span>(which enlists climate scientists to
review news articles related to climate change) is a highly
respected and influential resource...<br>
It's also important that we not lose sight of the forest for the
trees. Although it may be interesting to debate whether polar bears
will be able to adapt to their rapidly-changing environment, that
single climate change impact does not alter the overwhelming body of
scientific evidence supporting human-caused global warming and the
threats it poses. Climate science isn't a set of dominoes or a house
of cards; it's a towering structure built on a strong scientific
foundation.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/29/new-study-uncovers-the-keystone-domino-strategy-of-climate-denial">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/nov/29/new-study-uncovers-the-keystone-domino-strategy-of-climate-denial</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/28/weatherwatch-climate-change-means-lots-of-birdsong-even-in-november">Weatherwatch:
climate change means lots of birdsong, even in November</a></b><br>
Unlike other birds, robins have always sung throughout the season,
but now other species are joining them due to their warming
environment<br>
Thanks to the effects of climate change, combined with the
"urban-heat-island effect" - in which cities are several degrees
warmer than the surrounding countryside - London is now a hotspot
for unseasonal birdsong. Visit any of the capital's parks,
especially at dawn when the sound of commuter traffic has yet to
reach its peak, and you'll hear a wide range of songbirds.<br>
Listen out for the impossibly loud song of the wren - with the trill
my fellow writer Dominic Couzens calls "the twiddle in the middle" -
as this tiny bird signals its presence from deep inside hedgerows
and shrubberies. Joining the chorus are the great tit, which sings
its "tea-cher, tea-cher" song from a prominent twig, the scolding,
frantic sound of the blue tit, and the rather monotonous song of the
dunnock.<br>
For something a little more exotic, pay a visit to the <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.wwt.org.uk/wetland-centres/london/">WWT's London
Wetland Centre </a>or the <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.rspb.org.uk/reserves-and-events/find-a-reserve/reserves-a-z/reserves-by-name/r/rainhammarshes/">RSPB's
Rainham Marshes</a> reserve, where you can hear the explosive
sound of a relatively recent colonist, Cetti's warbler, more or less
all year round.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/28/weatherwatch-climate-change-means-lots-of-birdsong-even-in-november">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/28/weatherwatch-climate-change-means-lots-of-birdsong-even-in-november</a></font><br>
-<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn3_NKp32dE">Cettis
Warbler and its call :18</a></b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn3_NKp32dE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn3_NKp32dE</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tadMXSl7cQU">(video)
Report: Extreme climate events virtually certain to increase -
YouTube</a></b><br>
Video for Dr. Radley Horton report<br>
Nov 3, 2017 - Uploaded by PBS NewsHour<br>
We are now in the warmest period in modern civilization. That's
according to an extensive report - authored by 13 federal agencies,
experts and scientists - that directly contradicts the Trump
administration's position on climate change. Hari Sreenivasan speaks
with Radley Horton of Columbia University about the dire assessment
of the state of the climate and its impact on the U.S.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tadMXSl7cQU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tadMXSl7cQU</a><br>
-<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/03/climate/document-Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.html">Read
online the Full Climate Science Special Report</a><br>
"This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is
extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of
greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming
since the mid-20th century," the report states.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/03/climate/document-Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/03/climate/document-Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.html</a><br>
-<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4174364/Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.pdf">Download
the Original report PDF from Document Cloud </a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4174364/Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.pdf">https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4174364/Climate-Science-Special-Report-2017.pdf</a><br>
-<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT-7mVz8HJU"><br>
(video) Dangerous Climate Change is Here and Worse to Come,
Major Report Warns</a></b><br>
Contributing author to the report for the US Congress, Columbia
University climate scientist, Dr. Radley Horton says more extreme
weather events will be more common if U.S. doesn't curb use of
fossil fuel<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT-7mVz8HJU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT-7mVz8HJU</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.sixdegreesnews.org/archives/20969/millions-of-yemenis-on-verge-of-losing-clean-running-water">Millions
of Yemenis on verge of losing clean running water</a></b><br>
SIXDEGREES on 11/29/2017 at 4:48 am<br>
THERE IS A MAJOR DANGER OF CHOLERA COMEBACK AS FOUR IN FIVE PEOPLE
WILL BE WITHOUT STEADY WATER SUPPLY.<br>
Eight million people in Yemen will be without running water within
days as fuel runs out due to the Saudi-led coalition blockade of the
country's northern ports, Oxfam warned.<br>
They will join the almost 16 million people in Yemen who already
cannot get clean piped water, leaving more than four in five people
without a steady supply of clean water.<br>
A disruption to fuel supplies on this scale could trigger a fresh
spike in a cholera epidemic which has seen nearly 950,000 suspected
cases since April this year, but which had begun to ease in recent
weeks.<br>
Water scarcity in Yemen is amongst the worst in the world and the
country mostly depends on ground water for its water supply.<br>
Oxfam's work providing water has already been hit by fuel shortages.
In Khamer district of Amran governorate in Western central Yemen -
where there have been 174 deaths due to cholera since April - 31,000
people have already been cut off as parts of the water network have
run out or are close to running out of fuel.<br>
Stevenson said: "The longer the blockade continues, the more people
need our help but the less help we are able to offer. The
international community cannot be allowed to turn its backs on the
suffering in Yemen. All those with influence over the Saudi-led
coalition are complicit in Yemen's suffering unless they do all they
can to push them to lift the blockade."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.sixdegreesnews.org/archives/20969/millions-of-yemenis-on-verge-of-losing-clean-running-water">http://www.sixdegreesnews.org/archives/20969/millions-of-yemenis-on-verge-of-losing-clean-running-water</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<a href="https://youtu.be/2Pg4R1WKN8I?t=1m22s">(video) Addiction to
Growth - Root Cause of Climate Change</a><br>
UPFSI .org <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/2Pg4R1WKN8I?t=1m22s">https://youtu.be/2Pg4R1WKN8I?t=1m22s</a><br>
Climate Matters welcomes Dr. Philip Lawn, from the International
Society for Ecological Economics (<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://isecoeco.org">http://isecoeco.org</a>) and Binzagr
Institute for Sustainable Prosperity, to today's show. We discuss
the root cause of climate change, and so many other ills of society
and the ecosphere, our global Addiction to Growth.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/2Pg4R1WKN8I?t=1m22s">https://youtu.be/2Pg4R1WKN8I?t=1m22s</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<i>Checking the facts:</i><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities-grist-eric-holthaus/"><br>
Grist article on an "Ice Apocalypse" mostly accurate, but
doesn't make the likelihood of that apocalypse clear enough to
readers</a></b><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/">Analysis
of "Ice Apocalypse" Published in Grist, by Eric Holthaus on 21
Nov. 2017</a><br>
Six scientists analyzed the article and estimate its overall
scientific credibility to be 'high'. <br>
A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Accurate, Alarmist,
Insightful, Sound reasoning.<br>
SCIENTISTS' FEEDBACK:<br>
SUMMARY<br>
This article at Grist by Eric Holthaus examines the risk of greater
sea level rise caused by a more rapid loss of glacial ice. It
focuses on a process recently added to one ice sheet model (ice
cliff instability), which greatly accelerated the simulated loss of
Antarctic ice in a warming climate, suggesting that we could see
more sea level rise by 2100 than previously projected.<br>
Scientists who reviewed the article found that while it accurately
described recent research on these processes, it should have
provided more accurate context on the timescale of these sea level
rise scenarios and the scientific uncertainty about how likely these
scenarios are to come to pass.<br>
<blockquote><b>Twila Moon, Lecturer (Assistant Professor),
University of Bristol:</b><br>
The major failure of the article is that it incorrectly presents
the scientifically published timeline for worst case sea level
rise. This is unfortunate, because the overall information in the
article about marine ice-cliff instability potentially causing sea
levels to rise much sooner than previously thought is correct and
important to communicate, and the quoted scientists' statements
are accurate.<br>
There are many important science questions, but it is true that
understanding the rate of ice loss at Pine Island and Thwaites
Glaciers is very important for understanding how quickly future
sea level rise will happen. Understanding Thwaites is arguably
more important than Pine Island, though they are part of a connect
region of ice. A recent peer-reviewed science article that takes a
closer look at the question and explains the importance of
understanding changes is Scambos et al, 2017*.<br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote><b>Richard Alley, Professor, Penn State University:</b><br>
The basic idea is I believe correct—if Thwaites Glacier in West
Antarctica in the future begins to behave the way Greenland's ice
sheet is now behaving at Jakobshavn, Helheim and some other
outlets, the resulting future sea level rise is likely to be
notably higher and faster than currently projected by the IPCC.
Iceberg calving from non-floating (tidewater) fronts is a
widespread and well-known process (passengers on cruise ships to
Alaska have been observing it routinely, for example), and the
rate of calving is generally accepted to increase in deeper water
and to be favored by reduced friction from the sides, for robust
physical reasons. The Greenland outlets are in ~1 km deep fjords
that are only a few km wide; furthermore, retreat out of these
relatively narrow and short fjords would not greatly raise global
sea level (most of Greenland's ice rests on bedrock that is near
or above sea level). Retreat of Thwaites Glacier could reach much
deeper water with a much wider calving front, and beyond some
threshold of retreat is generally modeled as triggering the full
deglaciation of the marine basins with ~3 meters of globally
averaged sea-level rise, because so much of West Antarctica's ice
rests on interconnected deep beds.<br>
<br>
The DeConto-Pollard numbers (and earlier, the
Pollard-DeConto-Alley numbers, so note that I was involved with
earlier parts of this research) assumed that if triggered, the
retreat in West Antarctica would not be as fast as the fastest
rates already observed in Greenland (a maximum retreat rate was
set in the model); the notably greater sea-level contribution of
West Antarctica in the new modeling arises from the much broader
calving front that would be activated. But, the greater depth and
width of West Antarctica's deep marine basins than in Greenland
could produce much faster calving than in Greenland. Hence, the
DeConto-Pollard simulations are not a worst-case scenario.<br>
<br>
The uncertainties remain very large, especially regarding the
amount of warming to that threshold. But, because tidewater
calving is such a widespread process, it is highly likely that
warming beyond some threshold will cause tidewater processes to
occur in West Antarctica, consistent with the paleo-observations
in deglaciated marine areas off Pine Island Bay. Current physical
understanding then leads to the expectation of quite rapid
sea-level rise. Much work remains to be done to narrow the
uncertainties, including analyses of the "melange" of broken-up
icebergs mentioned by Ted Scambos—but note that such a melange is
present in the narrow fjord of Jakobshavn, providing a backstress
that has still allowed the rapid retreat observed there. I believe
DeConto and Pollard have taken a well-justified path in estimating
the warming threshold, but much additional work can be done. Many
other models that project smaller future sea-level rise from West
Antarctica also lack the transition to tidewater calving. If
warming becomes large enough to trigger tidewater processes in
West Antarctica (or East Antarctica), then models lacking those
processes are not useful for providing either most-likely or
worst-case scenarios for sea-level rise.<br>
</blockquote>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://via.hypothes.is/https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/">See
all the scientists' annotations in context</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities-grist-eric-holthaus/">https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities-grist-eric-holthaus/</a></font><br>
-<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811630491X">How
much, how fast?: A science review and outlook for research on
the instability of Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier in the 21st
century</a></b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.04.008Get">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.04.008Get</a>
rights and content<br>
Under a Creative Commons license open access<br>
Highlights:<br>
Thwaites Glacier is a likely site of greatly increased Antarctic ice
sheet mass loss.<br>
Changes in the atmosphere and ocean and their interaction with the
glacier are the cause.<br>
A coordinated multi-disciplinary research plan to study Thwaites
Glacier is outlined.<br>
<blockquote>Abstract<br>
Constraining how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
(WAIS) will change in the coming decades has recently been
identified as the highest priority in Antarctic research (National
Academies, 2015). Here we review recent research on WAIS and
outline further scientific objectives for the area now identified
as the most likely to undergo near-term significant change:
Thwaites Glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea. Multiple lines of
evidence point to an ongoing rapid loss of ice in this region in
response to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Models of
the ice sheet's dynamic behavior indicate a potential for greatly
accelerated ice loss as ocean-driven melting at the Thwaites
Glacier grounding zone and nearby areas leads to thinning, faster
flow, and retreat. A complete retreat of the Thwaites Glacier
basin would raise global sea level by more than three meters by
entraining ice from adjacent catchments. This scenario could occur
over the next few centuries, and faster ice loss could occur
through processes omitted from most ice flow models such as
hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, which have been observed in
recent rapid ice retreats elsewhere. Increased basal melt at the
grounding zone and increased potential for hydrofracture due to
enhanced surface melt could initiate a more rapid collapse of
Thwaites Glacier within the next few decades.<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811630491X">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811630491X</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/climate-change-like-a-cancer-before-onset-of-symptoms-463693.html">Climate
Change: 'Like a cancer before onset of symptoms'</a></b><br>
Thursday, November 30, 2017<br>
The gradual progression of climate change and delayed effects of
emissions can give a sense of unreality; denial is a great
psychological defence, write Liam Quaide and Roisin Cuddihy.<br>
What is it we are facing? If harmful emissions are not drastically
reduced in the near future climate change will lead, over the course
of our daughter's life, to more erratic and extreme weather, and to
increasingly intense heat-waves, floods and storms.<br>
There will be widespread damage to property and infrastructure, and
crops are likely to suffer on a large scale. Parts of Asia and
Africa will become uninhabitable, resulting in mass migrations of
climate refugees. As resources become scarcer, political and social
tensions will escalate...<br>
Crucially, there must be significant reform of agricultural
practices. At this moment in history we require courage from a
Taoiseach who can reckon with vested interests and put our country
on the road to a sustainable future as part of an international
trend led by Norway, Sweden and the state of California.<br>
The gains for our economy, not to mention our health and quality of
life, would be immense. The losses, if we do not act, are
unthinkable.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/climate-change-like-a-cancer-before-onset-of-symptoms-463693.html">http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/climate-change-like-a-cancer-before-onset-of-symptoms-463693.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://youtu.be/NTx2QD-XYt8">This Day in Climate History
November 30, 2010</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
November 30, 2010: Katie Couric, in her CBSNews.com "Notebook"<br>
segment, observes:<br>
"The debate over global warming is once again heating up in<br>
Washington. Roughly half of the newly elected Republican<br>
congressmembers are climate change skeptics, according to one
survey,<br>
and some want to roll back environmental regulations.<br>
"Their position was bolstered by the Climategate scandal, in which a<br>
handful of scientists were accused of manipulating data to support<br>
climate change. The scientists were later cleared, but the damage
was<br>
done. Less than 60 percent of Americans now believe in global
warming,<br>
down from 80 percent in 2006.<br>
"Still, the vast majority of scientists - 97 percent - say man-made<br>
climate change is real. 700 climate experts have joined a media<br>
project to educate the public, and UN talks are underway in Cancun
on<br>
a treaty to curb greenhouse gases.<br>
"Time is ticking. Global warming may have become a political
football,<br>
but scientists say it's one we can't afford to punt."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://youtu.be/NTx2QD-XYt8">http://youtu.be/NTx2QD-XYt8</a></font><br>
<br>
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