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<font size="+1"><i>February 15, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[USA Today]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/science/2018/02/14/extreme-weather-disasters-paris-climate-agreement/336885002/">Even
in best-case scenario for climate change, extreme weather events
likely to continue increasing, experts say</a></b><br>
The landmark Paris Agreement, signed by nearly every nation on Earth
except the U.S., aims to keep the world's temperature from rising to
dangerous, climate-shifting levels of 2 degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels. <br>
Now, a new study finds that even the best-case scenario of "only" a
1-degree rise could increase the likelihood of extreme weather -
including floods, droughts and heat waves - in the U.S. and around
the world.<br>
<blockquote>The frequency of extreme climate and weather events is
already increasing, and many experts say man-made climate change
is an important motivating factor...<br>
</blockquote>
Keeping the world's temperature to a 1-degree Celsius (1.8 degrees
Farenheit) rise is informally known as an "aspirational" target of
the Paris Agreement, compared with the actual commitment of a
2-degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) rise...<br>
Another 2 to 3 degrees Celsuis of global warming would likely lead
to three times as many record-breaking wet days across large chunks
of the U.S., the study said.<br>
More worrisome, several studies have found that even if every nation
follows through on its pledges to cut greenhouse-gas emissions -
already a big if - worldwide average temperatures would be likely to
rise closer to 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Farenheit) this
century, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said.<br>
While greater increases in the likelihood of extreme weather events
would be reduced if the world achieves the Paris deal's aspirational
target, "we still will be living in a climate that has substantially
greater probability of unprecedented events than the one we're in
now," Diffenbaugh said.<br>
Previous studies from Diffenbaugh's team found global warming has
increased the odds of the hottest events across more than 80% of the
planet, while also increasing the likelihood of both wet and dry
extremes.<br>
<font size="-1">The research appeared Wednesday in the peer-reviewed
journal Science Advances, a publication of the American
Association for the Advancement of Science.</font><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/science/2018/02/14/extreme-weather-disasters-paris-climate-agreement/336885002/">https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/science/2018/02/14/extreme-weather-disasters-paris-climate-agreement/336885002/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[new view]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/14/world/politics-diplomacy-world/u-s-intel-chief-deviates-trump-denial-warns-climate-change-potential-upheaval/">US
intel chief deviates from Trump denial, warns about climate
change, potential for 'upheaval'</a></b><br>
WASHINGTON - The top U.S. intelligence official issued a warning on
Tuesday about the dangers of climate change in testimony that was
seemingly at odds with the skepticism of President Donald Trump and
other members of his administration.<br>
"The impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more
air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to
fuel economic and social discontent - and possibly upheaval -
through 2018," said Dan Coats, the director of national
intelligence...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/14/world/politics-diplomacy-world/u-s-intel-chief-deviates-trump-denial-warns-climate-change-potential-upheaval/">https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/02/14/world/politics-diplomacy-world/u-s-intel-chief-deviates-trump-denial-warns-climate-change-potential-upheaval/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[radar records of bats]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180212190935.htm">Bats
as barometer of climate change</a><br>
</b><b>Shifting behavioral patterns due to environmental change
could have far-reaching implications for agriculture globally</b><br>
Bats spend every night hard at work for local farmers, consuming
over half of their own weight in insects, many of which are harmful
agricultural pests, such as the noctuid moths, corn earworm and fall
armyworm. And now they are arriving earlier in the season, and some
of them are reluctant to leave. It seems the bats know more about
climate change than we had realized.<br>
Historical radar data from weather monitoring archives have provided
unprecedented access to the behaviours of the world's largest colony
of migratory bats and revealed changes in the animals' seasonal
habits with implications for pest management and agricultural
production.<br>
The work, which focuses on the Bracken Cave colony in southern
Texas, is the first long-term study of animal migration using
radar...findings are published today in Global Change Biology.<br>
"These bats spend every night hard at work for local farmers,
consuming over half of their own weight in insects, many of which
are harmful agricultural pests, such as the noctuid moths, corn
earworm and fall armyworm," says Wainwright.<br>
"Our initial goal was just to show that the populations could be
monitored remotely without disturbing the colony. We weren't
expecting to see anything particularly noteworthy. The results were
surprising,"...<br>
Using the radar data, the pair measured the population exiting the
cave every night for 22 years, from 1995 to 2017, enabling them to
record seasonal and longer-term changes.<br>
"We found that the bats are migrating to Texas roughly two weeks
earlier than they were 22 years ago. They now arrive, on average, in
mid March rather than late March," says Wainwright...<br>
This bat study "presents a new perspective on adaptation to global
change, answering some longstanding questions while raising many
more,"...They also note that "weather radar networks are key
infrastructure around much of the world...and hold the promise of
providing continental surveillance of bat populations, as well as
their ongoing responses to global change."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180212190935.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180212190935.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/02/14/u-s-intelligence-community-impacts-of-climate-change-raise-the-risk-of-conflict-in-2018/">U.S.
Intelligence Community: Impacts of Climate Change Raise the Risk
of Conflict in 2018</a></b><br>
For the past ten years, beginning with the last year of the George
W. Bush Administration, the U.S. intelligence community (IC) has
annually warned policy-makers of the security implications of
climate change. This year is the eleventh. Yesterday, during a
hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, the National
Intelligence Council (NIC) Director Dan Coats released the annual
"Worldwide Threat Assessment," which reflects the perspective of the
entire U.S. intelligence community regarding the most significant
risks to national security. Notably, the assessment includes a
robust section titled "Environment and Climate Change" which not
only details a range of security threats related to climate change,
but also asserts that these risks, combined with other natural
resources stresses, "<b>are likely to fuel economic and social
discontent-and possibly upheaval-through 2018.</b>" In other
words, the U.S. intelligence community believes these threats are
not on the distant horizon, but rather, already occurring and likely
to increase political instability this very year.<br>
The assessment also notes that "Extreme weather events in a warmer
world have the potential for greater impacts and <b>can compound
with other drivers to raise the risk of humanitarian disasters,
conflict, water and food shortages, population migration, labor
shortfalls, price shocks, and power outages.</b>"<br>
<br>
The warning of the potentially destabilizing impacts of climate
change is even more concerning than the NIC's 2017 assessment, which
identified the likelihood of an increase in extreme weather events
as a result of climate change, but stopped short of addressing the
heightened probability of attendant social and economical upheaval
and conflict. This is noteworthy as it is the first Worldwide Threat
Assessment that is wholly a product of analysis conducted under the
current Administration, and affirms the apolitical approach of the
IC...Below, see the most relevant excerpts.<br>
<b>From the "Environment and Climate Change" section:</b><br>
The impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more
air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to
fuel economic and social discontent-and possibly upheaval-through
2018.<br>
The past 115 years have been the warmest period in the history of
modern civilization, and the past few years have been the warmest
years on record. Extreme weather events in a warmer world have the
potential for greater impacts and can compound with other drivers to
raise the risk of humanitarian disasters, conflict, water and food
shortages, population migration, labor shortfalls, price shocks, and
power outages. Research has not identified indicators of tipping
points in climate-linked earth systems, suggesting a possibility of
abrupt climate change.<br>
Worsening air pollution from forest burning, agricultural waste
incineration, urbanization, and rapid industrialization-with
increasing public awareness-might drive protests against
authorities, such as those recently in China, India, and Iran.<br>
Accelerating biodiversity and species loss-driven by pollution,
warming, unsustainable fishing, and acidifying oceans-will
jeopardize vital ecosystems that support critical human systems.
Recent estimates suggest that the current extinction rate is 100 to
1,000 times the natural extinction rate.<br>
Water scarcity, compounded by gaps in cooperative management
agreements for nearly half of the world's international river
basins, and new unilateral dam development are likely to heighten
tension between countries...<br>
Challenges from urbanization and migration will persist, while the
effects of air pollution, inadequate water, and climate change on
human health and livelihood will become more noticeable. Domestic
policy responses to such issues will become more
difficult-especially for democracies-as publics become less trusting
of authoritative information sources.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/02/14/u-s-intelligence-community-impacts-of-climate-change-raise-the-risk-of-conflict-in-2018/">https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/02/14/u-s-intelligence-community-impacts-of-climate-change-raise-the-risk-of-conflict-in-2018/</a></font><br>
For previous U.S. intelligence community assessments covering
climate change, see the <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climateandsecurity.org/resources/u-s-government/intelligence/">Intelligence
section of our Resource Hub.</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climateandsecurity.org/resources/u-s-government/intelligence/">https://climateandsecurity.org/resources/u-s-government/intelligence/</a><br>
Read the<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/os-dcoats-021318.PDF">
complete 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment here.</a> (28 pages) <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/os-dcoats-021318.PDF">https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/os-dcoats-021318.PDF</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[ice records]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213183558.htm">NASA's
longest running survey of ice shattered records in 2017</a></b><br>
Last year was a record-breaking one for Operation IceBridge, NASA's
aerial survey of the state of polar ice. For the first time in its
nine-year history, the mission, which aims to close the gap between
two NASA satellite campaigns that study changes in the height of
polar ice, carried out seven field campaigns in the Arctic and
Antarctic in a single year. In total, the IceBridge scientists and
instruments flew over 214,000 miles, the equivalent of orbiting the
Earth 8.6 times at the equator...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213183558.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213183558.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[motivation]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213120429.htm">Pride
tops guilt as a motivator for environmental decisions</a></b><br>
A lot of pro-environmental messages suggest that people will feel
guilty if they don't make an effort to live more sustainably or
takes steps to ameliorate climate change. But a recent study from
Princeton University finds that highlighting the pride people will
feel if they take such actions may be a better way to change
environmental behaviors.<br>
Elke U. Weber, a professor of psychology and public affairs at
Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International
Affairs, conducted the study -- which appears in the academic
journal PLOS ONE -- along with Ph.D. candidate Claudia R. Schneider
(who is visiting Princeton's Department of Psychology through the
Ivy League Exchange Scholar Program) and colleagues at Columbia
University and the University of Massachusetts Amherst.<br>
Past research has shown that anticipating how one will feel
afterward plays a big role in decision-making -- particularly when
making decisions that affect others. "In simple terms, people tend
to avoid taking actions that could result in negative emotions, such
as guilt and sadness, and to pursue those that will result in
positive states, such as pride and joy," said Weber, who also is the
Gerhard R. Andlinger Professor in Energy and the Environment.<br>
Pro-environmental messaging sometimes emphasizes pride to spur
people into action, Weber said, but it more often focuses on guilt.
She and her colleagues wondered which is the better motivator in
this area.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213120429.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213120429.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[legal frenzy]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-13/exxon-sues-the-suers-in-fierce-bid-to-defeat-climate-lawsuits">Exxon
Sues the Suers in Fierce Climate-Change Case</a></b><br>
As climate-change lawsuits against the oil industry mount, Exxon
Mobil Corp. is taking a bare-knuckle approach rarely seen in legal
disputes: It's going after the lawyers who are suing it.<br>
The company has targeted at least 30 people and organizations,
including the attorneys general of New York and Massachusetts,
hitting them with suits, threats of suits or demands for sworn
depositions. The company claims the lawyers, public officials and
environmental activists are "conspiring" against it in a coordinated
legal and public relations campaign.<br>
Exxon has even given that campaign a vaguely sinister-sounding name:
"The La Jolla playbook." According to the company, about two dozen
people hatched a strategy against it at a meeting six years ago in
an oceanfront cottage in La Jolla, Calif.<br>
"It's an aggressive move," said Howard Erichson, an expert in
complex litigation and a professor at Fordham University School of
Law in New York. "Does Exxon really need these depositions or is
Exxon seeking the depositions to harass mayors and city attorneys
into dropping their lawsuits?"...<br>
Some experts say Exxon's strategy goes beyond mere litigation
tactics.<br>
"People often try to use litigation to change the cultural
conversation," said Alexandra Lahav, a professor at the University
of Connecticut School of Law, pointing to litigation over guns and
gay rights as examples. "Exxon is positioning itself as a victim
rather than a perpetrator."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-13/exxon-sues-the-suers-in-fierce-bid-to-defeat-climate-lawsuits">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-13/exxon-sues-the-suers-in-fierce-bid-to-defeat-climate-lawsuits</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Map for $ale]<b><br>
</b><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://mymodernmet.com/parag-khanna-global-warming-map/">Global
Warming Map Shows What Happens When the Earth Gets 4 Degrees
Warmer</a></b><br>
We read a lot about global warming in the headlines, and climate
change is certainly one of the biggest concerns for most scientists,
but what would the actual impact on our geography look like?
International relations expert and best-selling author Parag Khanna
gives a glimpse into our possible future with his global warming
map.<br>
Khanna's world map shows what Earth would look like if-or when-it
becomes 4 degrees Celsius (39.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer. Though
first published by New Scientist in 2009, the map is still a
haunting reminder that we can't afford to sit back when it comes to
saving our environment...<br>
Warmer temperatures mean even bigger changes for colder climates,
with Khanna suggesting that the melting of the Himalayan glaciers
will cause populations to abandon Bangladesh and southern India.
Canada and Siberia will transform into hubs of agriculture, warmer
climates making them now suitable to produce much of the world's
food supply. And suddenly, living in Antarctica won't mean bundling
up. In fact, Antarctica's western coast will be densely populated,
taking on people who find themselves fleeing from their once
habitable land.<br>
It all seems like strange fiction, but scientists have warned that
it's a sad reality. Since 2013, researchers have predicted that by
the end of the century the world will arrive at this point of no
return. "Four degrees Celsius would likely be catastrophic rather
than simply dangerous," Professor Steven Sherwood of the University
of New South Wales in Australia told The Guardian at the time. "For
example, it would make life difficult, if not impossible, in much of
the tropics, and would guarantee the eventual melting of the
Greenland ice sheet and some of the Antarctic ice sheet."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://mymodernmet.com/parag-khanna-global-warming-map/">https://mymodernmet.com/parag-khanna-global-warming-map/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Audio podcast- long]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/audio/2018/feb/13/why-we-need-to-rethink-climate-change-with-timothy-morton-books-podcast">Why
we need to rethink climate change, with Timothy Morton - books
podcast</a></b><br>
Tue 13 Feb 2018 <br>
When you first hear some of philosopher Timothy Morton's ideas, they
may sound bizarre. He argues that everything in the universe - from
algae and rocks to knives and forks - has a kind of consciousness.
That we need to scrap the concept of "nature" as being distinct to
civilisation. And, he says, we're ruled by a kind of primitive
artificial intelligence: industrial capitalism.<br>
- play audio [start 12 mins in] <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/series/books/podcast.xml">https://www.theguardian.com/books/series/books/podcast.xml</a><br>
These ideas may sound strange, but sit down with Timothy for five
minutes and they start to make sense. His latest book, Being
Ecological, explores the relationship between humanity and the
environment and why the world's current approach to climate change
isn't working. We don't need endless "factoids" or "guilt-inducing
sermons", he says, we need to radically change how we think about
nature - and stop distinguishing between humans and non-human
beings.<br>
Timothy sat down with Sian in the studio and talked about what a
human can do on an individual level to tackle global warming, his
work with Björk and how pop culture can help in philosophical
conversation.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/audio/2018/feb/13/why-we-need-to-rethink-climate-change-with-timothy-morton-books-podcast">https://www.theguardian.com/books/audio/2018/feb/13/why-we-need-to-rethink-climate-change-with-timothy-morton-books-podcast</a></font><br>
-<br>
[book review]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jan/20/being-ecological-timothy-morton-review">Being
Ecological by Timothy Morton review - a playfully serious look
at the environment</a></b><br>
There are not too many 'scary facts' in this ambitious book, which
draws on both Kantian philosophy and Star Wars to explain our
relationship to the world<br>
om the outset, Timothy Morton is very clear about the kind of book
he isn't writing. This is not another "confusing information dump,
slapping you upside the head to make you feel bad". What he terms
"ecological information delivery mode", heavy in "factoids" and
accompanied by a "guilt-inducing sermon", is counterproductive.
Deluging readers with scary facts about global warming, which is
what most environmental writers do, is "inhibiting a more genuine
way of handling ecological knowledge". To understand the true
gravity of the current situation we need "to start to live the
data".<br>
<blockquote>At the heart of this immensely ambitious book is a
radical critique of how we know and relate to the world around us.
Morton argues that our scientific age is characterised by an
epistemological gulf between objects and data: "things are
mysterious, in a radical and irreducible way". Critical of a
scientistic approach to knowledge, he believes the world can be
grasped only by moving to a viewpoint that is both experiential
and reflexive. The observer needs to be part of the equation:
"Being ecological includes a sense of my weird inclusion in what
I'm experiencing."<br>
</blockquote>
In order to "live ecological knowledge", Morton thinks we need to
break through the "massive firewall" our Neolithic ancestors built
between humans and non-humans some 12,000 years ago, as they began
creating agriculture and theistic religions. Today we need to
abandon the arrogance of anthropocentrism. In a memorable analogy,
drawing on both Kantian philosophy and Star Wars, Morton observes
that the idea of "mind melding with a non-human being" resembles the
Force, an invisible field that permeates and binds everything.
Sensing this "force", the underlying connectedness of all things, is
an experience Morton describes as "attunement".<br>
To read Being Ecological is to be caught up in a brilliant display
of intellectual pyrotechnics. The playful seriousness of Morton's
prose mixes references to Blade Runner and Tibetan Buddhism with
lyrics from Talking Heads and concepts from German philosophers. He
doesn't offer a plan to make society more environmentally friendly;
instead, in what is an inspiringly idealistic book, he calls for a
paradigm shift in our relationship to the world.<br>
<b>Being Ecological</b> is published by Pelican. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jan/20/being-ecological-timothy-morton-review">https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jan/20/being-ecological-timothy-morton-review</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Southeast Chill]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213183555.htm">Polar
vortex defies climate change in the Southeast US</a></b><br>
Overwhelming scientific evidence has demonstrated that our planet is
getting warmer due to climate change, yet parts of the eastern U.S.
are actually getting cooler. According to a Dartmouth-led study in
Geophysical Research Letters, the location of this anomaly, known as
the "U.S. warming hole," is a moving target.<br>
During the winter and spring, the U.S. warming hole sits over the
Southeast, as the polar vortex allows arctic air to plunge into the
region. This has resulted in persistently cooler temperatures
throughout the Southeast. After spring, the U.S. warming hole moves
north and is located in the Midwest.<br>
The study found that winter temperatures in the U.S. warming hole
are associated with a wavier jet stream, which is linked to natural
climate cycles over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and potentially
to climate change. Previous research has illustrated that warming
temperatures and melting Arctic sea ice set up conditions for a
wavier jet stream. The study revealed that the jet stream over the
U.S. became wavier in the late 1950's, coincident with the start of
the warming hole. As such, since the late 1950's, the polar vortex
has been cooling the southeastern U.S. during the winter.<br>
"By discovering that the U.S. warming hole's location depends on the
season, we've found a new way to help understand this phenomenon,"
says Jonathan M. Winter, an assistant professor of geography at
Dartmouth and principle investigator for the research. "For example,
the recent extreme cold snaps in the Southeast, which seem
counterintuitive to global warming, may be related to the U.S.
warming hole," added Trevor F. Partridge, a graduate student in
earth sciences at Dartmouth and the study's lead author.<br>
While the wintertime U.S. warming hole was found to be associated
with the wavier jet stream, this was not the case for summertime
temperatures. This conclusion supports previous studies that find
connections between the summer warming hole in the Midwest and
intensified farming, increased irrigation and air pollution, which
primarily impact climate in summer and autumn.<br>
The study provides new insight on when the U.S. warming hole
occurred and where it is located spatially. Using National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration data from 1,407 temperature stations
and 1,722 precipitation stations from throughout the contiguous U.S.
from 1901 to 2015, the researchers examined temperature and
precipitation data over time for all stations, and identified
stations that were persistently cooler than average from 1960 to
2015. Daily temperatures in the warming hole cooled by an average of
1.2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1958, compared to a global average
warming of about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the same period. The
findings provide greater context on the cause of the U.S. warming
hole, a phenomenon that has large implications for both the U.S.
agricultural sector, and Midwest and Southeast weather now and
potentially into the future.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213183555.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213183555.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[climate modeling]<br>
<b><a
href="http://news.mit.edu/2018/projecting-impacts-climate-change-0213">Projecting
the impacts of climate change</a></b><br>
Joint Program researchers advocate for improved modeling approach.<br>
Mark Dwortzan Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global
Change <br>
February 13, 2018<br>
How might climate change affect the acidification of the world's
oceans or air quality in China and India in the coming decades, and
what climate policies could be effective in minimizing such impacts?
To answer such questions, decision makers routinely rely on
science-based projections of physical and economic impacts of
climate change on selected regions and economic sectors. But the
projections they obtain may not be as reliable or useful as they
appear: Today's gold standard for climate impact assessments - model
intercomparison projects (MIPs) - fall short in many ways...<br>
Developed over the past 26 years, the MIT Integrated Global System
Modeling (IGSM) framework allows researchers to custom-design
climate-change scenarios and assess climate impacts under those
scenarios. For a given climate change scenario, they can use the
framework to analyze the chain of physical changes at the regional
and sectoral levels, and then estimate economic impacts at those
levels...<br>
In the study, Monier and his co-authors applied the IGSM framework
to assess climate impacts under different climate-change scenarios -
"Paris Forever," a scenario in which Paris Agreement pledges are
carried out through 2030, and then maintained at that level through
2100; and "2C," a scenario with a global carbon tax-driven emissions
reduction policy designed to cap global warming at 2 degrees Celsius
by 2100. The assessments show that "Paris Forever" would lead to a
wide range of projected climate impacts around the world, evidenced
by different levels of ocean acidification, air quality, water
scarcity, and agricultural productivity in different regions. The
"2C" scenario, however, would mitigate a substantial portion of
these impacts. The researchers also explored additional scenarios
developed by Shell International regarding the potential development
of low-carbon energy technologies...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://news.mit.edu/2018/projecting-impacts-climate-change-0213">http://news.mit.edu/2018/projecting-impacts-climate-change-0213</a></font><br>
-<br>
[modeling paper]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02984-9">Toward
a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate
impacts</a></b><br>
Erwan Monier, Sergey Paltsev, Andrei Sokolov,...<br>
doi:10.1038/s41467-018-02984-9<br>
13 February 2018<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of
future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the
currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve
evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based
on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose
integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of
impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework.
Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond
to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios
across models, institutions and research communities can yield
inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use
of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess
climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment
modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate
the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a
multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of
consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are
responsive to new policies and business expectations.<font
size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02984-9">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02984-9</a></font><br>
</blockquote>
<br>
[classic video from 2014]<b><br>
</b><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAmZzVlELfw">A Report |
Opening Keynote by Naomi Oreskes</a></b><br>
Published on Oct 24, 2014<br>
The Anthropocene Project. A Report<br>
Opening Keynote: "Man as a Geological Agent: Historical and
Normative Perspectives on the Anthropocene" by Naomi Oreskes
(Department of the History of Science, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Mass.)<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAmZzVlELfw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAmZzVlELfw</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Video fiction - time machine]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://youtu.be/FDKJLGETg_I">Climate
Scientist wants to invent Time Machine, Transmission 2049 </a></b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/FDKJLGETg_I">https://youtu.be/FDKJLGETg_I</a>
<br>
is a short film produced by Climate State. Will our future be
apocalyptic? What if you could turn back time? What if our actions
today make the difference?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://climatestate.com/2018/02/12/climate-scientist-wants-to-invent-time-machine-transmission-2049/">http://climatestate.com/2018/02/12/climate-scientist-wants-to-invent-time-machine-transmission-2049/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123671588&sc=emaf">This
Day in Climate History February 15, 2010</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
February 15, 2010:<br>
NPR's Christopher Joyce reports:<br>
<blockquote>"Most [climate scientists] don't see a contradiction
between a warming world and lots of snow. That includes Kevin
Trenberth, a prominent climate scientist at the National Center
for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.<br>
"'The fact that the oceans are warmer now than they were, say, 30
years ago means there's about on average 4 percent more water
vapor lurking around over the oceans than there was, say, in the
1970s,' he says.<br>
"Warmer water means more water vapor rises up into the air, and
what goes up must come down.<br>
"'So one of the consequences of a warming ocean near a coastline
like the East Coast and Washington, D.C., for instance, is that
you can get dumped on with more snow partly as a consequence of
global warming,' he says.<br>
"And Trenberth notes that you don't need very cold temperatures to
get big snow. In fact, when the mercury drops too low, it may be
too cold to snow."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123671588&sc=emaf">http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123671588&sc=emaf</a>
<br>
<br>
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