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<font size="+1"><i>February 20, 2018</i></font><br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nrdc.org/experts/noah-long/action-climate-change-advances-oregon"><br>
Action on Climate Change Advances in Oregon</a></b><br>
Two bills climate action bills advanced in the Oregon legislature
this past week, passing their respective policy committees in the
state Senate and House. <br>
While dismal news just keeps pouring out of the nation's capital on
climate change, states are increasingly showing momentum to lead the
way. Trump and Pruitt are on a collision course with science and
dead set on putting America last in clean energy innovation, giving
away public lands and waters to fossil fuel companies and doing the
bidding of their dirty energy campaign donors. But states like
Oregon can rise to the occasion to keep clean energy momentum
alive...<br>
Of course, states are not immune to anti-climate political donors
and recalcitrant polluters hoping to prevent solutions to climate
change. In Oregon the major business, transportation and
gasoline/diesel interests have dug in to hold up movement of the
bill. The state's largest electric utility, Portland General
Electric, has been late to engage, though they are still at least
talking with proponents; while Pacificorp is opposing outright- with
a barrage of changing rationalizations for opposition. <br>
If action gets kicked down the road to next year's legislature, the
blame will go to the irresponsible and unconstructive polluter
resistance.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nrdc.org/experts/noah-long/action-climate-change-advances-oregon">https://www.nrdc.org/experts/noah-long/action-climate-change-advances-oregon</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Image Map]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php">Sea Level
Rise is Accelerating</a></b><br>
The acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in
Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the
total sea level rise projected by 2100.<br>
Global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades,
according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European
satellite data. This acceleration has been driven mainly by
increased ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the
potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100,
according to lead author Steve Nerem, a scientist at the Cooperative
Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and the
University of Colorado.<br>
If things continue to change at the observed pace, sea level will
rise 65 centimeters (26 inches) by 2100, enough to cause significant
problems for coastal cities. The team - comprised of scientists from
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Colorado, the
University of South Florida, and Old Dominion University - recently
published their work in the journal Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences.<br>
"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," said Nerem, who
is a member of NASA's Sea Level Change team. "Our extrapolation
assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has
over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the
ice sheets today, that is not likely."..<br>
The rate of sea level rise has risen from about 2.5 millimeters (0.1
inch) per year in the 1990s to about 3.4 millimeters (0.13 inches)
per year today. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php">https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[118 degrees F]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://ensia.com/features/air-travel/">Climate change
spells turbulent times ahead for air travel</a></b><br>
Fred Pearce <br>
Rising tides, icy air, melting permafrost and air that is too hot
for take-off are challenging aviation as the world warms.<br>
Phoenix gets hot. But not usually as hot as last June, when the
mercury at the airport one day soared above 48C. That exceeded the
maximum operating temperature for several aircraft ready for
take-off. They didn't fly. More than 50 flights were cancelled or
rerouted...<br>
Thanks to climate change, soon 48C [<i>118 degrees F</i>] may not
seem so unusual...<br>
Why is heat a problem for planes? In a word: lift.<br>
Lift is the upward force created by diverting air around wings as an
aircraft moves down the runway. It is harder to achieve when the air
is scorching hot, because hot air is thinner than cold air. The
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) warned in 2016 that
as a result, higher temperatures "could have severe consequences for
aircraft take-off performance."<br>
Aircraft will need to jettison passengers, cargo or fuel to get the
same lift on a hot day, raising costs and requiring more flights.<br>
"Weight restrictions are likely to have the most effect on long-haul
flights, which often take off near the airplane's maximum weight,"
says Ethan Coffel, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University.
"Possible adaptations include rescheduling flights to cooler times
of the day or lengthening runways."..<br>
Once in the air, flying will feel different too, especially in and
around the jet stream, for instance crossing the Atlantic...<br>
Flying east is becoming quicker in the stronger winds that result,
but flying west will be slower...<br>
Flights will also be bumpier, says Williams. "Stronger winds will
increase the amount of shear in the jet stream," he says. Shear
creates turbulence - particularly what is called "clear-air
turbulence," which occurs away from storm clouds and is hard for
pilots to spot and fly round. "The increase in clean-air turbulence
has the potential to be quite disruptive," says Williams. In other
words, get used to keeping your seatbelts fastened...<br>
Climate change will also increase the number and intensity of
thunderstorms, and push them upward into cruising altitudes. That
will make flying trickier and could dramatically increase the risk
of one of the most worrying upper-air phenomena for pilots:
high-altitude icing...<br>
Some of the most expensive climate-change problems for the aviation
industry will be on the ground...<br>
Take Iqaluit airport in northern Canada. The permafrost on which it
was built is melting. The runway and taxiway have had to be
resurfaced as a result. And the melting is deepening...<br>
But a more frequent problem is likely to be flooding. Many airports
are built on flat, low-lying land, by the ocean or in drained
swamps. Such places can be hard to drain and vulnerable to rising
sea levels and more intense storms...<br>
Internationally, there is also rising concern. The scientific
consensus is that sea-level rise probably won't be more than 1 meter
(3 feet) this century. But airport authorities believe that they
must adapt to much higher waters during storm surges such as that
experienced at LaGuardia.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://ensia.com/features/air-travel/">https://ensia.com/features/air-travel/</a><br>
<br>
</font><br>
[Cape Town drought]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://thebulletin.org/day-zero-lessons-cape-towns-crisis11519">Day
Zero: Lessons from Cape Town's crisis</a></b><br>
Interview with water expert Peter Gleick on the Cape Town water
crisis and the role of climate change on the crisis.<br>
<b>Peter Gleick: </b>For the first time, a major city is on the
verge of literally turning off its municipal water supply system
because of a lack of water...<br>
It's unprecedented, and I think it's a little bit scary.<br>
<b>Dan Drollette: </b>Is it a case of human nature, of people
taking it for granted that the water will always be there - just
like air - and no one needs to worry about it?...<br>
<b>Peter Gleick:</b> It's hard to say that any particular water
crisis is X percent one or the other of any of those factors. We
know that all of those factors are in play here. We know that Cape
Town is at the limits of getting any new supply - that there is no
more water. They're overtapping their rivers. They're overpumping
groundwater. We know that population continues to grow and demands
for water continue to grow. We know that climate change is
happening. We know the current drought is showing the influence of
higher temperatures - which increases demand for water and the loss
of water from soils and reservoirs - which in turn worsens the
severity of the drought that they're experiencing...<br>
We know that higher temperatures increase the demand for water at
the same time that they increase the loss of water from the
reservoirs that serve Cape Town. We also know worldwide that climate
change is influencing extreme events. I think that's going to turn
out to be evident here...<br>
I am more worried about places like Jakarta, or Tehran, or places in
the developing world where they don't have alternatives, where they
don't have the economic ability to use treated wastewater or to
desalinate water, and where they don't have the management ability
to implement smart and effective conservation programs...<br>
I would argue there's nothing special about Cape Town. I think
there are many parts of the world that are increasingly likely to
face their own Zero Days if we don't improve the way we deal with
water.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://thebulletin.org/day-zero-lessons-cape-towns-crisis11519">https://thebulletin.org/day-zero-lessons-cape-towns-crisis11519</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[borders and carbon]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now"><span
style="font-size:14.0pt">A think piece titled <i>Our Alarming
Climate Crisis Demands Border Adjustments Now, </i>by John
Odell, has been published by the International Centre for
Trade and Sustainable Development. </span></a></b><br>
<span style="font-size:14.0pt"> Executive summary:</span><br>
T<span style="font-size:14.0pt;color:black">he global climate crisis
is now an emergency. Concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse
gases have continued rising at record rates and climate damage is
intensifying across the planet. The 2015 pledges governments made
as part of the historic Paris agreement, even if all were
implemented, fell far short of what is needed to stabilize the
climate. Then last year the Trump Administration threw US
national policy into reverse gear. This could lead other states
to drag their own feet, possibly turning the Paris regime into a
dead letter. Much more effective policy response is extremely
urgent. While efforts at multilateral cooperation should continue,
it is now too late to delay unilateral trade measures any
longer. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span
style="color:black"></span><br>
I<span style="font-size:14.0pt;color:black">t is time for each
country that imposes positive net taxes on fossil fuel use at home
to extend the same treatment to all goods the country imports,
unilaterally if necessary. It should set a default carbon
surcharge on an imported product equal to net fossil energy taxes
(taxes minus subsidies) applied on a competing home good
throughout its supply chain. The government should deduct from
this surcharge for a given shipment to the extent that costs due
to carbon energy taxes, or other measures that are comparable in
effectiveness in reducing greenhouse gas</span><br>
<span style="font-size:14.0pt;color:black">emissions, have already
been paid on the imported good in any jurisdiction throughout its
own supply chain.<span class="apple-converted-space"><sup> </sup></span> All
exports from countries where CO2 emissions per capita are low
should be exempt. The goal is to help people in high-polluting
countries make their national mitigation policies more effective. </span><span
style="color:black"></span><br>
<span style="font-size:14.0pt;color:black">This paper sketches a
preliminary illustration of such a policy. An eventual complete
plan should satisfy three principles. Border carbon adjustments
should aim for consistency with the World Trade Organization's
rules. The measures should impose the smallest possible
additional transaction costs on domestic and international trade.
Third, these border adjustments should exempt all exports from the
dozens of poor and middle-income countries whose CO2 emissions per
capita are low. The paper concludes by addressing several
possible objections. Responding to an obvious one: paradoxically,
trade itself in the long term needs carefully limited trade
restrictions like these in the short term.</span><br>
<span style="font-size:14.0pt;color:black"></span><span
style="font-size:14.0pt;color:black">For the paper, please click <a
href="https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now">here</a>.
Apologies for any duplication and thank you for your
consideration.</span><br>
<span style="font-size:14.0pt;color:black">John Odell </span> <br>
<span style="font-size:11.0pt">Professor Emeritus of International
Relations </span><span style="font-size:11.0pt">University of
Southern California</span><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now">https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now</a></font><br>
- <br>
[Climate migrations]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://us6.campaign-archive.com/?e=&u=9283ff78aa53cccd2800739dc&id=21d82c41a6">The
two borderless challenges of our time: Migration and climate
change</a></b><br>
Civil society response to the Zero Draft of the UN´s Global Compact
for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration<br>
There are over a quarter billion migrants and refugees in the world.
Over 5,000 died last year on their dangerous journeys. The United
Nations has been moved to act. <br>
Governments are currently negotiating a Global Compact on Safe,
Orderly and Regular Migration. The agreement is meant to protect the
rights of those displaced and help address the root economic,
environmental and social drivers that are compelling people to leave
their communities and countries. <br>
Last week, the UN released its draft agreement and will have until
December to negotiate the final details. A key area where the
document falls short is on commitments to tackle the primary causes
of migration. A stated aim of the Global Compact is to "mitigate the
adverse drivers and structural factors that hinder people from
building and maintaining sustainable livelihoods in their countries
of origin". However, the current text lacks actionable commitments
to control the numerous man-made forces underlying global mass
migration. <br>
The reasons are different for every migrant and diaspora, but we
know that natural disasters are the number one cause of internal and
international displacement. With rising sea levels, desertification
and extreme weather events, climate action must be a part of any
meaningful agreement. <br>
"Climate induced displacement is upon us. Coastal communities are
being evacuated and relocated the world over." Said Emele
Duituturaga, Executive Director of the Pacific Islands Association
of Non Governmental Organisations. "Here in sea locked countries of
the Pacific Ocean, disappearance of our island homes is imminent". <br>
To protect the growing number of climate migrants, a necessary
starting place for the compact is to reaffirm the importance of the
Paris Climate Change Agreement and accelerate efforts to limit
global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, instead of the
more conservative and ambiguous target to keep the world "well
below" 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Missing just one of
these targets will lead to millions of people being displaced. The
United Nations´ climate science panel (The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change) gauges that the half a degree gap in warming
"amounts to a greater likelihood of drought, flooding, resource
depletion, conflict and forced migration". Climate models show us
that the additional 0.5 degrees C would further raise sea levels by
10 centimeters and cut crop yields by half across the tropics.<br>
From Fiji to Trinidad and Tobago, from Bangladesh to Morocco, civil
society groups are calling on their governments to make climate
mitigation a fundamental pillar of the Global Compact on Migration.
Over 400 civil society groups at International Civil Society Week
(Fiji, December) signed a joint declaration on climate induced
displacement, outlining key demands for the Global Compact. Among
other recommendations, we are urging the UN to address the causes
and consequences of migration, including:<br>
<b>Recognize that communities must have key human rights like food,
water, housing and health protected to reduce the necessity of
migration.</b><br>
<b>Commit to protect those who are most vulnerable to climate
displacement.</b><br>
<b>Ensure that those most vulnerable to climate displacement are
able to participate in the design and governance of the Global
Compact.</b> <br>
The upcoming multi-stakeholder consultations on 21 February and 21
May at UN Headquarters will provide civil society with the
opportunity to raise the ambition of the Global Compact and to help
ensure meaningful action is taken to reduce the man-made causes of
migration and incorporate key recommendations put forth in the joint
civil society declaration. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://us6.campaign-archive.com/?e=&u=9283ff78aa53cccd2800739dc&id=21d82c41a6">https://us6.campaign-archive.com/?e=&u=9283ff78aa53cccd2800739dc&id=21d82c41a6</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[hot to cold to hot]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/us-warmhole/#more-9651">US
Warmhole</a></b><br>
Posted on February 20, 2018 <br>
Not all places on earth are experiencing global warming at the same
rate. Let's consider the U.S., the "lower 48 states." Taking data
from NOAA for the 344 climate divisions in this region, and
computing the linear trend rate for each, we can see differences
between different parts of the USA, with red dots for warming and
blue for cooling, larger dots faster and smaller dots more slowly:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/usarate.jpg?w=500&h=332">https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/usarate.jpg?w=500&h=332</a><br>
The most notable feature is that in the southeastern US there's a
region which hasn't warmed nearly as much as the rest of the
country. There are even places which have shown slight cooling, most
notably in Alabama and Mississippi.<br>
The part of the U.S. that has warmed far less (if at all) has been
dubbed the "US warming hole." I'll call it the "warmhole" (just
because I like the name). It covers a larger area than just Alabama
and Mississippi. A number of papers over the last several years have
investigated why this might be.<br>
Meehl et al. (2012, J. Climate, 25, 6394) begin their abstract thus:<br>
<blockquote>A linear trend calculated for observed annual mean
surface air temperatures over the United States for the
second-half of the twentieth century shows a slight cooling over
the southeastern part of the country, the so-called warming hole,
while temperatures over the rest of the country rose
significantly.<br>
</blockquote>
The impression is that there is a small warming rate, especially
during the second half of the 20th century. I'm not so sure that's
actually the case. Let's look at the southeast, as defined by NOAA;
here's the data for mean temperature (note: I've converted from
degrees F to degrees C, and these are temperature anomalies):
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/tg_annual.jpg?w=500&h=332">https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/tg_annual.jpg?w=500&h=332</a>...<br>
Most notable is the size of the apparent shift. For summer it's a
sudden drop of about -0.63 degrees C, and the estimated size is
about the same for spring (-0.56 degrees C) and autumn (-0.58
degrees C), but they don't reach statistical significance due to the
higher variance of those seasons' temperature. But for winter, the
drop in 1958 is a whopping -2.01 degrees C, about three times as
large as for any other season...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/us-warmhole/#more-9651">https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/us-warmhole/#more-9651</a></font><br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/"><br>
</a><font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/">This
Day in Climate History February 20, 2013</a><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/"> </a>
- from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
February 20, 2013:<br>
In his first major policy speech as Secretary of State, John Kerry
directly addresses the risks of climate change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqJt_WSGoVI">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqJt_WSGoVI</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/">http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/</a><br>
<br>
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