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<font size="+1"><i>February 28, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[Daily Mail]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5439325/Freak-warming-Arctic-stuns-scientists.html">Freak
WARMING in the Arctic is to blame for the big chill over Europe:
Experts warn it's 'never been this extreme' and predict it may
happen more often due to climate change</a></b><br>
- The freak warming around is sending a blast of Arctic cold over
Europe <br>
- It is a sign of 'wacky' weather that may happen more often,
scientists claim<br>
- One area has had a record-smashing 61 hours of temperatures above
freezing<br>
Europe has been buffeted by freezing temperatures in recent days and
experts say this is the result of freak warming in the Arctic.<br>
The Arctic is experiencing one of its hottest winters on record,
with temperatures at the North Pole surging above freezing.<br>
These unusual conditions, which scientists say have 'never been this
extreme', are causing a disruption to the Arctic polar jet stream.<br>
The jet stream carries winds east to west across the planet, at
speeds of up to 200mph (320kph), in the upper atmosphere.<br>
Warmer air in the Arctic has sent them off their usual course,
blasting cold air over Europe - something likely to happen more
often thanks to man-made global warming, researchers say.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5439325/Freak-warming-Arctic-stuns-scientists.html#ixzz58Jv5IhZE">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5439325/Freak-warming-Arctic-stuns-scientists.html#ixzz58Jv5IhZE</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[WAPO]<br>
Capital Weather Gang Analysis<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/27/spring-is-running-20-days-early-its-exactly-what-we-expect-but-its-not-good/">Spring
is running 20 days early. It's exactly what we expect, but it's
not good.</a></b><br>
This is not surprising. In fact, it is exactly what we should expect
as the climate warms, according to myriad peer-reviewed studies
summarized succinctly by the <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/">2017 National Climate
Assessment.</a> In technical terms, the growing season in North
America is getting longer. You may also see it referred to as
"frost-free" days, since the growing season is the span of time
between the last frost and the first frost...<br>
The longer growing season is inherently related to food shortages...<br>
..."Plant productivity has not increased" alongside the number of
growing season days, according to the National Climate Assessment.
There are a number of reasons for this.<br>
<b>Freeze damage caused by late-season frosts</b><b><br>
</b><b>Limits to growth because of lack of sunlight in early fall</b><b><br>
Plants need winter to thrive</b><b> </b><i>(dormancy)</i><br>
<b>They literally run out of water</b><i> (extended need for water)</i><br>
Climate scientists and biologists are cautious about saying they do
not know exactly how plant production will change in the future.
Given that we have not been through this kind of change before, it
is hard to say with certainty whether productivity will continue to
decline. Risk management would suggest we should not bank on a
comeback anytime soon.<br>
<font size="-1">Angela Fritz is an atmospheric scientist and The
Washington Post's deputy weather editor. She has a BS in
meteorology and an MS in earth and atmospheric science. Follow
@angelafritz<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/27/spring-is-running-20-days-early-its-exactly-what-we-expect-but-its-not-good/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/27/spring-is-running-20-days-early-its-exactly-what-we-expect-but-its-not-good/</a></font><br>
[data for Groundhog Day Prediction ]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring">National Phenology
Network</a></b><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring">HOW
DOES THIS SPRING COMPARE TO "NORMAL"?</a><br>
Spring continues to arrive early in the west and late in the east,
compared to a long-term average (1981-2010). Spring is four weeks
early in southern Utah and eastern Washington and 5-6 weeks early in
the Grand Canyon. Spring is a few days late in Birmingham, AL, and
Charleston, SC. <br>
The timing of leaf-out, migration, flowering and other seasonal
phenomena in many species is closely tied to local weather
conditions and broad climatic patterns. The Spring Index maps
offered by USA-NPN shed light on plant and animal phenology, based
on local weather and climate conditions.<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring">HOW
DOES PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL'S PREDICTION MATCH WHAT WE'RE SEEING?</a><br>
Signs of Spring Map Groundhog day 2018<br>
Punxsutawney Phil predicts six more weeks of winter. We agree - if
we're talking about the eastern US. The southeast especially has
been cool so far this year. A new forecast by collaborator Toby Ault
also calls for an early spring in the west, late in the east...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring">https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring</a></font><br>
[Real complex data]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/">National
Centers for Environmental Prediction</a></b><br>
Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) Products<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/">http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[India's climate change]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://phys.org/news/2018-02-simulations-weather-patterns-india-due.html#jCp">Simulations
suggest changes in weather patterns coming to India due to
global warming</a></b><br>
February 27, 2018 by Bob Yirka, Phys.org<br>
To understand the weather impact India will likely experience, the
researchers focused specifically on cyclonic atmospheric vortices,
which are better known in western countries as low-pressure systems
(LPSs) - they are important to India because they are responsible
for bringing more than half of the rains, which give the monsoon
season its name, to the Gangetic plains. To make predictions about
such events in the future, the team looked at data from other
research efforts that have predicted sea surface temperatures for
the years 2071 to 2095. Sea surface temperatures have a dramatic
impact on LPS activity, which in turn has a dramatic impact on where
rain falls. The team used a high-resolution atmospheric general
circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis
distribution of LPS.<br>
In their simulation, the researchers report, they saw shifts in
low-pressure systems. More specifically, the simulation showed 60
percent fewer such events over the Baby of Bengal and 10 percent
more events in certain land areas. The net result, they report, is
likely a drier mid-section and an increase in rain in northern
areas. Such changes, they note, would have very serious implications
for the weather cycle in South Asia, and for India in particular.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2018-02-simulations-weather-patterns-india-due.html#jCp">https://phys.org/news/2018-02-simulations-weather-patterns-india-due.html#jCp</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Cli-Migration]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974">Welcome
to the Age of Climate Migration</a></b><br>
Extreme weather due to climate change displaced more than a million
people from their homes last year. It could soon reshape the nation<br>
By Jeff Goodell<br>
"Harvey was it for us," Elliott added. "Too much water, we can't
deal with this anymore. We are going to San Diego."<br>
"What are you going to do there?" I asked.<br>
"We don't know," McGowan said. "I'm gonna play some guitar and see
what comes along."<br>
As they piled back into their Subaru and headed toward the highway,
I thought of the old Woody Guthrie song about the farmers fleeing
the Dust Bowl: "We loaded our jalopies and piled our families in/We
rattled down that highway to never come back again."...<br>
Politicians inevitably vow to rebuild, to make their city stronger
than before. But in the coming years, as the climate gets hotter,
the seas keep rising and storms grow more intense, those vows will
become less and less credible. Climate change is going to remap our
world, changing not just how we live but where we live. As scientist
Peter Gleick, co-founder of the Pacific Institute, puts it, "There
is a shocking, unreported, fundamental change coming to the
habitability of many parts of the planet, including the U.S.A."...<br>
At a certain point you have to ask: How long can New Orleans, a city
already below sea level, keep pumping?...<br>
When I got back to Phoenix the next day, I couldn't help but notice
all the for sale signs in suburban yards. President Trump was on the
radio, talking about immigration reform, stoking fears of refugees
and displaced people. By noon, the temperature had hit 110 degrees,
and the sky was hazy with smoke from wildfires farther west.
Hsiang's work projects a near-total collapse of agricultural yields
in the region, part of a decline from searing heat and drought that
will reduce economic output by 25 percent. As I drove, I wondered if
future humans - or humanlike machines - would interpret the ruins of
these shopping malls and car dealerships as 21st-century
petroglyphs. What stories, if any, would they tell about the people
who had once lived here?<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974">https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[MET Office 5 year forecast]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/31/warming-breach-1-5c-paris-limit-within-five-years-says-uk-met-office/">Warming
could breach 1.5C within five years: UK Met Office</a></b><br>
The UK's meteorological agency has forecast the global temperature
might flicker above 1.5C within the next five years.<br>
That would be within a decade of the Paris climate deal setting 1.5C
as an aspirational limit on global warming.<br>
The Met Office's decadal forecast said the global average
temperature was "likely" to exceed 1C above pre-industrial levels
between 2018-2022 and could reach 1.5C.<br>
"There is also a small (around 10%) chance that at least one year in
the period could exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels," the
office said in a statement on Wednesday. "It is the first time that
such high values have been highlighted within these forecasts."<br>
Met Office scientists were quick to point out that this would not
actually breach the Paris Agreement, as that limit refers to a long
term average, rather than a yearly reading.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/31/warming-breach-1-5c-paris-limit-within-five-years-says-uk-met-office/">http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/31/warming-breach-1-5c-paris-limit-within-five-years-says-uk-met-office/</a></font><br>
[video statement]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://youtu.be/4qhaR2KU0sA">Met
Office 2018 Decadal forecast</a></b><br>
Professor Adam Scaife explains what the latest Met Office decadal
forecast could mean for global temperatures over the next five
years.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/4qhaR2KU0sA">https://youtu.be/4qhaR2KU0sA</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[where do we go?]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/02/26/waiting-for-the-debris-flows/">Waiting
for the Debris Flows</a></b><br>
by JOHN DAVIS<br>
So, the world ends not with a bang but with the weather: not with a
thermonuclear Armageddon, but with the slow melting of glacial ice,
with the creeping scourge of drought, with top soil blowing lazily
away, with trees stressed and lightning stricken, with the soft lap
of flood water, with the low buzz of disease carrying mosquitos that
follow; with the almost imperceptible warming of the oceans, with
their swelling, with their perturbation of the air into a violent
cyclogenesis and with their slowly increasing acidification. The
world ends with a fulsome wetness, debris flows, a coruscating
dryness, extreme heat, fire storms, chilling polar cold, high
pressures and lows and the violent winds that are whipped between
them; it ends with incursions, as Andreas Malm frames it, into "the
killing fields of extreme weather"...<br>
America has adopted 'Fossil Capital' as its national ethos. ('Drill
baby, drill.') It has been a part of the country's ideological
infrastructure for at least a century and a half. America performs
highly effective hierarchical command and control, a trait forged
when it was a colonial outpost in the New World under constant
threat from the indigenous peoples it re-cast as barbarians.
America institutes heroic large-scale, technologically and
logistically intense bravura acts of intervention (world wars and
space exploration); but it is constitutionally ill-suited to take
the steps necessary to contain the temperature rise inherent in the
continued burning of fossil fuels (to the extent that the U.S.
remains relevant to this effort).<br>
<blockquote>We can therefore expect increased militarization of
federal, state and local emergency services battling the blowback
from global warming, and an increased focus on geo-engineering
solutions to mitigate solar radiation, a strategy backed by some
of the world's richest men, including Bill Gates - all desperate
to preserve the formula for added exchange value derived from the
earth's store of prehistoric solar energy.<br>
</blockquote>
We should not expect rescue. So we sit and wait, knowing that the
invasion has begun. As the rain falls (or not), the wind howls, the
cold bites, the sun scorches, the wild fires rage and the debris
flows, we are all under voluntary evacuation orders - but there is
absolutely nowhere to go.<br>
<font size="-1">John Davis is an architect living in southern
California. He blogs at Urban Wildland<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/02/26/waiting-for-the-debris-flows/">https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/02/26/waiting-for-the-debris-flows/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Paris rules]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/24/unwritten-paris-rules-dominate-tense-year-climate-diplomacy-begins-japan/">Diplomats
meeting in Japan focused heavily on the contentious rules for
the Paris deal, which are due to be set by the end of this year</a></b><br>
By Karl Mathiesen<br>
A critical year of climate talks began this week at a meeting in
Tokyo, Japan, which was dominated by the contentious and unwritten
rulebook for the Paris Agreement.<br>
Negotiators who struck the landmark deal in the French capital in
2015, left a great deal of the detail to be sorted out later. The
rules that govern the agreement are yet to be written and loom as a
huge political fight to be resolved, or not, in Poland at the end of
this year.<br>
To ensure a successful outcome, negotiators have scheduled a packed
year of talks. In the first major meeting of 2018, 30 countries came
together in Japan this week.<br>
That included the US. Despite the administration's insistence they
intend to leave the Paris deal as soon as legally possible (in 2020)
the state department has continued to engage with the talks...<br>
In a <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press4e_001924.html">statement,</a>
Japan's ministry of foreign affairs said the discussions had been
"candid" and "fruitful". France's climate ambassador Brigitte Collet
called them "intense".<br>
The informal meeting, which is co-chaired each year by Japan and
Brazil, was used as an opportunity to set up talks for the year. It
ran over two days, ending Friday. By far the longest session was
devoted to the contentious Paris rulebook, which will dominate
discussions in Katowice. These rules will set how the commitments
made to the deal are measured and verified.<br>
Differences between some negotiating teams, especially the EU and
China, over issues such as transparency have to date been
irresolvable....<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/24/unwritten-paris-rules-dominate-tense-year-climate-diplomacy-begins-japan/">http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/24/unwritten-paris-rules-dominate-tense-year-climate-diplomacy-begins-japan/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Opinion The Tyee]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/02/26/Energy-Efficiency-Curse/">The
Curse of Energy Efficiency</a></b><br>
The more 'efficient' our technology, the more resources we consume
in a downward spiral of catastrophe.<br>
By Andrew Nikiforuk Today - TheTyee.ca<br>
As long as we define environmental, political and economic problems
as essentially technical in nature, then we will proscribe energy
efficiency as the solution. But if we were to admit that our
problems were spiritual and political in nature and bedeviled by
population and affluence, then we would endorse reductions in energy
consumption and the inequalities that feed such appetites.<br>
Politicians fear such change. No politician alive at the moment has
proposed changing the ruinous and efficiently convenient way we
live. No one is saying we could be happier consuming much less
energy and owning fewer energy slaves - even though that's what the
evidence clearly suggests. No political party claims that sacrifice
and courage will get us to a leaner tomorrow. No political party has
advocated that the rich drive less, fly less, live in smaller homes
or own less shit.<br>
Rather than question the tyrannical nature of technological society,
almost every political party on earth has opted for more energy
efficiency.<br>
Alexa, play us some more energy efficiency.<br>
This refusal to acknowledge the truth leaves the world but two
options for change: collapse or revolution.<br>
We may get both. [Tyee] <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/02/26/Energy-Efficiency-Curse/">https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/02/26/Energy-Efficiency-Curse/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Books]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.springer.com/series/8740">New Publications on
Climate Change </a></b><br>
New & Forthcoming Titles<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.springer.com/series/8740">http://www.springer.com/series/8740</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-methane-obama-congress-20170227-story.html">This
Day in Climate History February 28, 2017</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
The Los Angeles Times editorial page observes:<br>
<blockquote>"The risk of climate change from global warming has long
since moved from abstract theory into reality, even if the
ostriches surrounding President Trump won’t see it. Recently
appointed Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott
Pruitt is joined at the wallet to the industry, as a trove of
recently released emails from his work as Oklahoma attorney
general confirms, so don’t expect much from him. Conservative
members of Congress also buy into the nonsense - as do Trump and
Pruitt - that human activity has little to do with rising global
temperatures, more severe weather patterns, stressed flora and
fauna and what scientists believe is a looming mass extinction
that is unfolding at a much faster pace than the five previously
identified mass extinctions in history. In terms of Earth’s
evolution, that is a split second.<br>
<br>
"But, oh, the jobs! We need the jobs! And the cheap fuel! The
adage of missing the forest for the trees comes to mind. The
overwhelming consensus by scientists is that the world needs to
move away from fossil fuels and toward renewable sources such as
wind and solar. In the meantime, we need to be even more
aggressive, not less, in limiting the burning or release of
methane and other harmful emissions. <br>
<br>
"To that end, the Obama administration regulations were a step in
the right direction. Which brings Newton’s Third Law of Physics
into play: For every action, there is an opposite and equal
reaction. Earlier this month, the Republican-led House of
Representatives invoked the Congressional Review Act to kill the
Obama regulations governing wells on federal land, and the bill is
now before the Senate, with a vote possible this week.<br>
<br>
"The Senate should refuse to join the House in passing this
irresponsible bill. The methane regulations, which are to be
phased in, are good, sensible policy. The federal Bureau of Land
Management estimated that between 2009 and 2015, the oil and gas
industry wasted, through emissions or flaring, 462 billion cubic
feet of methane - enough to supply natural gas for 6.2 million
households for a year - from wells in public and tribal lands. Not
only was the gas lost, the unburned methane went directly into the
atmosphere. And taxpayers missed out on $23 million a year in
royalties that would have been due had the methane been captured
and sold. <br>
<br>
"Fortunately, the EPA rules governing non-federal land wells are
less likely to be rescinded. The rules were adopted long enough
ago that they are no longer subject to the Congressional Review
Act, which means that to roll them back, the Trump administration
would have to go through a lengthy regulatory review process.
Unfortunately, those rules only cover future wells, not existing
ones. (The federal land rules cover both.) Instead of attacking
the federal land rules, Congress should extend the same
regulations to the existing wells on non-federal land. But don’t
hold your breath.<br>
<br>
"The world should be weaning itself from fossil fuels as quickly
as possible. That Trump and the Republican Congress disagree is
not only disappointing, but dangerous."<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-methane-obama-congress-20170227-story.html">http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-methane-obama-congress-20170227-story.html</a>
</font><br>
<font size="+1"><i><br>
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