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<font size="+1"><i>April 1, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[no joke, but is ironic]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27032018/climate-change-arctic-sea-ice-data-icebergs-ocean-shipping-oil-gas-drilling-grand-banks-canada">'Extreme'
Iceberg Seasons Threaten Oil Rigs and Shipping as the Arctic
Warms</a></b><br>
As Arctic sea ice breaks up, it's starting to move southward faster,
creating new and unexpected hazards. More icebergs calving off
Greenland add to the threat.<br>
BY BOB BERWYN, INSIDECLIMATE NEWS<br>
"There were so many icebergs coming on to the rigs that they
couldn't keep up. They ... were using water cannons standing on rigs
and boats to push them away because they were coming on to the rigs
so fast." - International Ice Patrol Commander Gabrielle McGrath on
how icebergs have menaced oil rigs in the Atlantic Ocean.<br>
That ice can pose serious risks to ships and offshore oil and gas
rigs. Last year, strong storms sent a swarm of icebergs surging into
the oil and gas drilling field at the Grand Banks off Newfoundland,
marking <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgmP8U9tJ6w">the fourth
extreme iceberg season in a row</a>, according to<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/?pageName=IIPHome">
International Ice Patrol</a> Commander Gabrielle McGrath.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27032018/climate-change-arctic-sea-ice-data-icebergs-ocean-shipping-oil-gas-drilling-grand-banks-canada">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27032018/climate-change-arctic-sea-ice-data-icebergs-ocean-shipping-oil-gas-drilling-grand-banks-canada</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Oh, frozen poop]<br>
<b><a
href="http://www.startribune.com/where-s-the-snow-climate-change-in-minnesota-creates-septic-tank-headaches/478461373/">Where's
the snow? Climate change in Minnesota creates septic tank
headaches</a></b><br>
Unexpected consequence of climate change plagues the state. <br>
By Josephine Marcotty Star Tribune MARCH 31, 2018<br>
Frozen septic systems are emerging as an unexpected consequence of
climate change in Minnesota — one that is bedeviling homeowners
across the state and could soon cost taxpayers more for the repair
and maintenance of fragile rural roads.<br>
<br>
The cause is a dramatic long-term decline in insulating snow early
in November and December. Combined with still-freezing conditions,
that drives the frost line deep underground — well below septic
pipes and drain fields.<br>
<br>
As a result, thousands of the half-million Minnesotans whose homes,
cabins or businesses rely on underground septic tanks are facing a
costly solution: pump their tanks more often and use their showers,
washing machines, dishwashers and toilets less. And this year isn't
the worst in a recent history of freeze-ups, septic haulers say.<br>
- - - - - -<br>
Some parts of Minnesota have plenty of snow, and some winters bring
a lot that falls early and stays late. But according to Kenny
Blumenfeld, Minnesota's state climatologist, rising average winter
temperatures have led to a dramatic change in snow cover. The
average annual snow depth in Minnesota between Nov. 1 and March 31
has dropped by 20 to 30 percent, comparing the past 18 years against
the period 1970 to 1999. And the total number of days without snow
cover has increased even more — 30 to 50 percent, and even higher in
some places.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.startribune.com/where-s-the-snow-climate-change-in-minnesota-creates-septic-tank-headaches/478461373/">http://www.startribune.com/where-s-the-snow-climate-change-in-minnesota-creates-septic-tank-headaches/478461373/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[PR double-speak]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://priceofoil.org/2018/03/28/shell-game-oil-company-says-climate-future-is-fossil-fuelled/">Shell
Game: What Shell Gets Wrong in its New Climate Report</a></b><br>
Greg Muttitt, March 28, 2018<br>
On Monday, Shell released a new <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html">report</a>
describing how the world might achieve the Paris goals. The report
described a scenario called "Sky," painting a picture of a possible
future.<br>
It's a future full of fossil fuels: in 2050, it has oil, gas and
coal use at respectively 88%, 93%, and 62% of their current levels.
Shell describes this as a "rapid energy transition." Hardly. <br>
<br>
See graph <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2018/03/shell-fossil-fuels.jpg">http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2018/03/shell-fossil-fuels.jpg</a><br>
<br>
How can such a future be aligned with the Paris goals? The answer is
that it's not.<br>
<blockquote>The Paris goals are to keep warming "well below" 2
degrees C, and to pursue efforts to keep warming to 1.5 degrees C.
This reflects an updated scientific understanding that 2 degrees
C, the previous goal, should itself be considered dangerous. Even
at 2 degrees C, the risk of runaway climate change becomes
significant.<br>
<br>
A UNFCCC review in the months leading up to the Paris summit
stated that 2 degrees C should not be seen as a safe target, but
should "be better seen as an upper limit, a defense line that
needs to be stringently defended, while less warming would be
preferable."<br>
</blockquote>
Shell appears not to understand this. The "Sky" scenario aims for a
2-in-3 probability of keeping warming below 2 degrees C, but this is
only achieved if new technology is invented to suck carbon out of
the atmosphere, as well as a dramatic turnaround in technology for
capturing and burying carbon emissions.<br>
In 2070, the Shell scenario has 8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
sucked out of the atmosphere, which (if the technology works) could
require a land area up to five times the size of India. Another 10
billion tonnes is captured when emitted. This combined 18 billion
tonnes is equivalent to about half of today's emissions.<br>
Carbon-sucking technologies so far exist only in theoretical models.
Carbon-capturing technologies have been tested in pilot projects,
most of which have been unsuccessful, leading governments and
companies who previously advocated for the technologies now to
cancel projects and funding. In the words of Francesco Starace, the
Enel CEO and chair of trade association Eurelectric, "I think
[carbon capture and storage] has not been successful. It doesn't
work, let's call it what it is – it is simply too expensive, too
cumbersome, the technology didn't fly."<br>
So, Shell proposes gambling on the invention of new technologies, in
order to have a modest chance of avoiding the severe dangers at and
above 2 degrees C. That is not "stringent defense" of the 2 degrees
C limit. It is not "pursuing efforts" to keep warming to 1.5 degrees
C. It is not aligned with the Paris goals.<br>
- - -- - -<br>
A few years later, Shell dropped both the PR campaign and the
renewables, while the company continued to extract billions of
barrels of oil. Twenty years on, the climate crisis is now urgent;
we can't afford to fall again for the pretence that Shell is part of
the solution.This year marks the 20th anniversary of a Shell report
entitled 'Profits or Principles: does there have to be a choice?' –
claiming that Shell would be at the heart of transforming the energy
industry. Shell built partnerships with some leading NGOs, invested
heavily in a communications campaign, and started a small but
much-publicised renewable energy division.<br>
The lesson is simple: If you want to know how to fix climate change,
don't ask a company that wants to sell you more oil and gas.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://priceofoil.org/2018/03/28/shell-game-oil-company-says-climate-future-is-fossil-fuelled/">http://priceofoil.org/2018/03/28/shell-game-oil-company-says-climate-future-is-fossil-fuelled/</a></font><br>
[Shell's report]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html">SKY
SCENARIO</a></b><br>
The Sky Scenario illustrates a technically possible, but challenging
pathway for society to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Sky
builds on previous Shell scenarios publications and is our most
optimistic scenario in terms of climate outcomes.<br>
A new energy system is emerging. The Paris Agreement has sent a
signal around the world: climate change is a serious issue that
governments are determined to address. By 2070 there is the
potential for a very different energy system to emerge.<br>
The Sky Scenario outlines what we believe to be a technologically,
industrially, and economically possible route forward, consistent
with limiting the global average temperature rise to well below 2
degrees C from pre-industrial levels. It reveals the potential for
an energy system to emerge that brings modern energy to all in the
world, without delivering a climate legacy that society cannot
readily adapt to.<br>
Sky shows a transformation to a lower-carbon energy system, with the
world achieving the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Consumers, companies and governments will face tough choices and the
paths towards lower-carbon energy will vary by country and sector.
Over the course of 50 years, it transforms the way society uses and
produces energy.<br>
- - - -<br>
But while encouraging news, success towards the Paris Agreement aim
is not guaranteed. The Sky Scenario relies on a complex combination
of mutually reinforcing actions by society, markets and governments.
It recognises that the necessary changes will unfold at different
paces in different places, and must ultimately transform all sectors
of economic activity. The changes are economy-wide, sector-specific,
and amount to re-wiring the global economy in just 50 years.... <br>
more at: <font size="-1"> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html">https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html</a></font><br>
[Shell note]<br>
You can read the full story on the Shell website at <a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.shell.com/skyscenario">www.shell.com/skyscenario.</a><br>
Note: Scenarios are not intended to be predictions of likely future
events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making
an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc
securities. Please read the full cautionary note in <a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.shell.com/skyscenario">www.shell.com/skyscenario.</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.shell.com/skyscenario">http://www.shell.com/skyscenario</a><br>
</font>[MIT Study of Shell Sky scenario]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/16995">Meeting
the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of
the Shell Sky Scenario</a></b><br>
Joint Program Report Series, March, 10 p.<br>
Report 330 <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://globalchange.mit.edu/sites/default/files/MITJPSPGC_Rpt330.pdf">[Download]</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://globalchange.mit.edu/sites/default/files/MITJPSPGC_Rpt330.pdf">https://globalchange.mit.edu/sites/default/files/MITJPSPGC_Rpt330.pdf</a><br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract/Summary:</b><br>
The Paris Agreement makes long-term energy and climate projections
particularly important because it calls for a goal that likely
requires an energy system that is based on a radically different
fuel mix than currently in use. This presents a challenge for
energy companies as they try to anticipate the types of energy and
fuels that will be required to stay competitive while meeting
environmental requirements. A new scenario (called Sky) developed
by Shell International examines the challenge of moving to an
energy system with net-zero CO2 emissions and gradually eliminate
emissions from deforestation by midway through the second half of
the century (specifically by the year of 2070). Using the MIT
Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we simulate a
400-member ensemble, reflecting uncertainty in Earth system
response of global temperature change associated with the Sky
scenario by 2100. We find that for the median climate parameters
the global surface temperature increase by 2100 is 1.75 degrees C
above the pre-industrial levels with an 85% probability of
remaining below 2 degrees C. The geographic distribution of the
temperature change shows a stronger warming in Polar regions. If,
in addition, there is a significant effort directed toward global
reforestation then, with median climate parameters, temperature
increase by 2100, is near 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial
levels.<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/16995">https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/16995</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[bye, flutter by]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180327194353.htm">Iconic
swallowtail butterfly at risk from climate change</a></b><br>
March 27, 2018<br>
University of East Anglia<br>
Summary:<br>
New research reveals that Norfolk's butterflies, bees, bugs, birds,
trees and mammals are at major risk from climate change as
temperatures rise. Researchers carried out the first in-depth audit
of its kind for a region in the UK to see how biodiversity might be
impacted in Norfolk as the world warms. The study finds that the
region's Swallowtail Butterfly, which can't be found anywhere else
in the UK, is at risk -- along with three quarters of bumblebee,
grasshopper and moth species.<br>
- - - - - - -<br>
The project reveals that at just 2 degrees C, 72 per cent of
bumblebees in Norfolk could be lost, along with 75 per cent of
grasshoppers and bush crickets, and 68 per cent of larger moths.<br>
The new climate potentially becomes unsuitable for 15 species of
birds including Lapland Bunting and Pink-footed Goose. Meanwhile the
Common Shrew, Roe Deer and European Badger are among seven mammal
species which may be lost from Norfolk.<br>
- - - - - - <br>
As climate change reaches 3.2 degrees C, temperatures would be
largely or completely unsuitable for mammals including Grey
Squirrels, Whiskered Bats and Reeves' Muntjac and trees including
Silver Birch, Horse Chestnut, Scots Pine and Norway Spruce.<br>
Additionally, 83 per cent of shield bugs, 84 per cent of moths, 78
per cent of bumblebees, and 45 per cent of butterflies including the
Small Tortoiseshell could also be affected.<br>
The findings come after UEA research revealed that up to half of all
plant and animal species in the world's most naturally rich areas
could face local extinction by the turn of the century due to
climate change if carbon emissions continue to rise unchecked.<br>
- - - - - - <br>
"The important thing to remember here is that global warming has
already reached 1 degree C above pre-industrial levels. We're
currently on a trajectory for 3.2 degrees C if international pledges
to reduce CO2 are genuine. If so, major changes need to be made to
how we use and produce our energy.<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180327194353.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180327194353.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[science and media]<br>
Northwest Climate Science Center Upcoming Webinars<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nwclimatescience.org/upcoming-webinars">ACTIONABLE
CLIMATE SCIENCE SKILLS-BUILDING WEBINAR SERIES</a></b><br>
The Northwest Climate Science Center is excited to announce its new
Actionable Climate Science Skills-building Webinar Series! This
webinar series is designed to help those engaged in climate science
research better understand the range of approaches for developing
actionable science. Each webinar will explore ways to support
effective collaborations between scientific researchers and natural
resource managers. Our first webinar is next Tuesday, April 3rd at
11:00 AM (PT). "<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://washington.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_870Jwqj9TZWTzZB5MslKpg">DEVELOPING
A SUCCESSFUL CO-PRODUCTION COLLABORATION BETWEEN SCIENTISTS AND
PRACTITIONERS</a>"<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nwclimatescience.org/upcoming-webinars">https://www.nwclimatescience.org/upcoming-webinars</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[200 yrs away]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180308143129.htm">Global
fisheries to be, on average, 20 percent less productive in 2300,
UCI study finds</a></b><br>
Global fisheries to be, on average, 20 percent less productive in
2300, UCI study finds<br>
Warming-induced plankton growth near Antarctica will impair marine
food chain<br>
March 8, 2018<br>
University of California - Irvine<br>
Summary:<br>
Scientists expect the world's fisheries to be, on average, 20
percent less productive in the year 2300, with those in the North
Atlantic down nearly 60 percent and those in much of the western
Pacific experiencing declines of more than 50 percent.<br>
- - - - - <br>
He emphasized the importance of looking further into the future with
climate models, something that isn't often done because of the
computational resources such modeling requires. Months of
computations using thousands of central processing units were needed
to simulate the climate and oceans up to 2300. But stopping climate
studies at the end of our current century, as is common among
scientists and policymakers, is insufficient given the amount of
time it takes for the ocean to absorb and respond to heat being
trapped by the Earth's atmosphere today, Moore said.<br>
"The climate is warming rapidly now, but in the ocean, most of that
added heat is still right at the surface. It takes centuries for
that heat to work its way into the deeper ocean, changing the
circulation and removing the sea ice, which is a big part of this
process," he said.<br>
"This is what's going to happen if we don't put the brakes on global
warming, and it's pretty catastrophic for the oceans," Moore
stressed. "There is still time to avoid most of this warming and get
to a stable climate by the end of this century, but in order to do
that, we have to aggressively reduce our fossil fuel use and
emissions of greenhouse gas pollutants."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180308143129.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180308143129.htm</a><br>
- - - - - </font><br>
[Classic fisheries study first done in 2009 ]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/archive/newsrel/science/02-09FloridaKeysFishing.asp">Historical
Photographs Expose Decline in Florida's Reef Fish, New Scripps
Study Finds</a></b><br>
Snapshots trace shrinking 'trophy fish' over a generation of sport
fishing<br>
Scripps Institution of Oceanography/University of California, San
Diego<br>
February 18, 2009<br>
By Mario Aguilera<br>
A unique study by a scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography
at UC San Diego has provided fresh evidence of fishing's impact on
marine ecosystems. Scripps Oceanography graduate student researcher
Loren McClenachan accessed archival photographs spanning more than
five decades to analyze and calculate a drastic decline of so-called
"trophy fish" caught around coral reefs surrounding Key West,
Florida.<br>
In a paper published online ...and printed in an...issue of the
journal Conservation Biology, McClenachan describes a stark 88
percent decline in the estimated weight of large predatory fish
imaged in black-and-white 1950s sport fishing photos compared to the
relatively diminutive catches photographed in modern pictures. In a
companion paper being published in the Endangered Species Research
journal, McClenachan employs similar methods to document the decline
of the globally endangered goliath grouper fish.<br>
"These results provide evidence of major changes over the last half
century and a window into an earlier, less disturbed fish
community…" McClenachan said in the Conservation Biology paper.<br>
McClenachan's studies are part of an emerging field called
historical marine ecology, in which scientists study photographs,
archives, news accounts and other records to help understand changes
in the ocean ecosystem over time and establish baselines for future
ecosystem restoration.<br>
McClenachan believes that historical ecology can not only help
describe the structure of ecosystems that existed in the recent
past, but can be used to establish goals for restoration of large
predators, both on land and in the water.<br>
While conducting research for her doctoral thesis on coral reef
ecosystems of the Florida Keys, McClenachan came across what she
describes as a gold mine of photographic data at the Monroe County
Library in Key West. Hundreds of archived photographs, snapped by
professional photographer Charles Anderson, depict sport fishing
passengers posing next to a hanging board used to determine the
largest "trophy fish" catches of the day. All of the photographs
document sport fishing trips targeting coral reef fishes around the
Florida Keys. McClenachan supplemented the study with her own
photographs and observations on sport fishing trips in 2007.<br>
In all, she measured and analyzed some 1,275 fish from photographs.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/archive/newsrel/science/02-09FloridaKeysFishing.asp">http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/archive/newsrel/science/02-09FloridaKeysFishing.asp</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Historical climate jokes]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://hoaxes.org/af_database/display/category/climate">Climate-Themed
April Fool's Day Hoaxes - The Museum of Hoaxes</a></b><br>
hoaxes.org/af_database/display/category/climate<br>
In other words, "today should be 2 April, not 1 April." More… The
Sheep Albedo Hypothesis. (2007) RealClimate.org detailed the work of
Dr. Ewe Noh-Watt of the New Zealand Institute of Veterinary
Climatology, who had discovered that global warming was caused not
by a buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but ...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://hoaxes.org/af_database/display/category/climate">http://hoaxes.org/af_database/display/category/climate</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[April fools video from 2015]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrHMVdF0lM">The Shocking
Truth About Global Warming (APRIL FOOLS!)</a></b><br>
NextGen America on Mar 31, 2015<br>
For years, 97% of scientists assured us that climate change was
real. Today in the Hot Seat, we uncover the sordid lies behind their
so-called "scientific consensus."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrHMVdF0lM">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrHMVdF0lM</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b>This Day in Climate History - April 1, 2009 -
from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
April 1, 2009: The New York Times reports:<br>
<blockquote>"The debate on global warming and energy policy
accelerated on Tuesday as two senior House Democrats unveiled a
far-reaching bill to cap heat-trapping gases and quicken the
country's move away from dependence on coal and oil.<br>
<br>
"But the bill leaves critical questions unanswered and has no
Republican support. It is thus the beginning, not the end, of the
debate in Congress on how to deal with two of President Obama's
priorities, climate change and energy.<br>
<br>
"The draft measure, written by Representatives Henry A. Waxman of
California and Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts, sets a slightly
more ambitious goal for capping heat-trapping gases than Mr.
Obama's proposal. The bill requires that emissions be reduced 20
percent from 2005 levels by 2020, while Mr. Obama's plan calls for
a 14 percent reduction by 2020. Both would reduce emissions of
carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases by roughly 80
percent by 2050."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/us/politics/01energycnd.html?pagewanted=print">http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/us/politics/01energycnd.html?pagewanted=print</a><br>
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