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<font size="+1"><i>May 1, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[COP 23 Conference Bonn]<br>
<a
href="http://enb.iisd.org/videos/climate/unfccc-sb48-env/monday-30-apr-2018/?autoplay">ENV
/ Daily Coverage for the Bonn Climate Change Conference -
April/May 2018</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://enb.iisd.org/videos/climate/unfccc-sb48-env/monday-30-apr-2018/?autoplay">http://enb.iisd.org/videos/climate/unfccc-sb48-env/monday-30-apr-2018/?autoplay</a><br>
On Monday, 30 April 2018, the main issues for consideration were the
Paris Agreement Work Programme and the Talanoa Dialogue.
Participants shared their expectations for the meeting.<br>
Produced by Asheline Appleton and filmed/edited by Felipe Ruiz.<br>
You can find our written reports and photographs for the Bonn
Climate Change Conference - April/May 2018 at:
enb.iisd.org/climate/sb48/<br>
<br>
<br>
[new work for lawyers]<br>
<a
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-04-25/fight-grows-over-who-owns-real-estate-drowned-by-climate-change"><b>The
Fighting Has Begun Over Who Owns Land Drowned by Climate Change</b></a><br>
America's coastal cities are preparing for legal battles over real
estate that slips into the ocean.<br>
One April morning in 2016, Daryl Carpenter, a charter boat captain
out of Grand Isle, La., took some clients to catch redfish on a
marsh pond that didn't use to exist. Coastal erosion and rising seas
are submerging a football field's worth of Louisiana land every
hour, creating and expanding ponds and lakes such as the one onto
which Carpenter had piloted his 24-foot vessel.<br>
Suddenly, another boat pulled up beside Carpenter's. "You're
trespassing," the other driver declared, before chasing him and his
clients down the bayou. The sheriff's office later threatened to
arrest Carpenter if he ever returned to the pond. There was just one
problem: Under Louisiana state law, any waterways that are
accessible by boat are supposed to be public property, argued
Carpenter - even what was previously unnavigable swampland...<br>
Carpenter's suit reflects a legal and political dilemma that's
beginning to reverberate around the country: <b>As seas rise and
coasts wash away, who owns the land that goes underwater?</b><br>
more at:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-04-25/fight-grows-over-who-owns-real-estate-drowned-by-climate-change">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-04-25/fight-grows-over-who-owns-real-estate-drowned-by-climate-change</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[risk, research and reconnaissance]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/04/us-uk-science-armada-target-vulnerable-antarctic-ice-sheet">U.S.-U.K.
science armada to target vulnerable Antarctic ice sheet</a></b><br>
By Paul VoosenApr. 30, 2018 , 6:00 AM<br>
An armada of 100 scientists will soon be descending on West
Antarctica, and understanding the future of global sea levels might
depend on what they find. Today, after several years of planning,
the U.S. and U.K. science agencies announced the details of a joint
$50 million (or more) plan to study the Thwaites glacier, the
Antarctic ice sheet most at risk of near-term melting.<br>
<br>
The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration plans to deploy six
teams to the remote ice sheet, where they will study it using a host
of tools, including instrument-carrying seals and earth-sensing
seismographs. The researchers will concentrate their work in the
Antarctic summers of 2019-20 and 2020-21. An additional two teams
will channel the findings of the field teams into global models....<br>
- - - - -<br>
Over the past decade, thanks to a variety of satellite and aircraft
observations and modeling insights - including signs that the
glacier's ice has started thinning and flowing faster toward the
ocean - scientists have been paying special attention to Thwaites.
It is, they believe, the Antarctic ice sheet most at risk of
accelerated melting in the next century, making it the wild card in
projections of sea level rise. But its remote location, 1600
kilometers from the nearest research station, has made it
inaccessible to scientists seeking to understand these risks up
close.<br>
<br>
Thwaites, a 182,000-square-kilometer glacier in the Amundsen Sea,
acts as a plug, blocking the rest of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
from flowing into the ocean. Melt from the glacier already accounts
for 4% of modern sea level rise, an amount that has doubled since
the 1990s. Scientists are concerned that if it retreats, it could
become unstable, making the collapse of the ice sheet irreversible
and ultimately increasing sea levels by 3.3 meters over the span of
centuries or millennia.<br>
<br>
"It could contribute to sea level in our lifetimes in a large way,
in a scale of a meter of sea level rise," says Sridhar
Anandakrishnan, a glacial seismologist at Pennsylvania State
University in State College who is co-leading one Thwaites project.
"Which is just an unthinkable possibility."<br>
<font size="-1">More at:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/04/us-uk-science-armada-target-vulnerable-antarctic-ice-sheet">http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/04/us-uk-science-armada-target-vulnerable-antarctic-ice-sheet</a></font><br>
- [I thought you'd never ask]<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/07/donald-trump-maralago-climate-change/">"In
30 years, the grounds of Mar-a-Lago could be under at least a foot
of water for 210 days </a>a year because of tidal flooding along
the Intracoastal water way, with the water rising past some of the
cottages and bungalows, the analysis by Coastal Risk Consulting
found."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/07/donald-trump-maralago-climate-change/">https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/07/donald-trump-maralago-climate-change/</a><br>
-[precise measure of Mar-a-lago ]<br>
1100 S Ocean Blvd, Palm Beach, FL 33480, USA<br>
Altitude: 5m | 16ft<br>
26.6770665, -80.03698020000002<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://elevationmap.net/1100-s-ocean-blvd-palm-beach-fl-33480-usa">https://elevationmap.net/1100-s-ocean-blvd-palm-beach-fl-33480-usa</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Australians have a good question,]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/climate-change-fiduciary-responsibility-politicians-bureaucrats-59891/">Climate
Change: The fiduciary responsibility of politicians &
bureaucrats</a></b><br>
By Ian Dunlop on 26 April 2018<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/climate-change-fiduciary-responsibility-politicians-bureaucrats-59891/#">Print
Friendly, PDF & Email</a><br>
"Fiduciary: a person to whom power is entrusted for the benefit of
another"<br>
"Power is reposed in members of Parliament by the public for
exercise in the interests of the public and not primarily for the
interests of members or the parties to which they belong. The cry
'whatever it takes' is not consistent with the performance of
fiduciary duty"<br>
Sir Gerard Brennan AC, KBE, QC<br>
Part 1.<br>
After three decades of global inaction, none more so than in
Australia, human-induced climate change is now an existential risk
to humanity.<br>
- - - - - - <br>
The fact that many Ministers and parliamentarians are climate
deniers for ideological or party political reasons, does not absolve
them of the fiduciary responsibility to set aside their personal
prejudices and to act in the public interest with integrity,
fairness and accountability.<br>
This requires them to understand the latest climate science and to
act accordingly. It is not acceptable for those in positions of
public trust to dismiss these warnings in the cavalier manner which
has typified the last few years. Particularly when the risk is
existential...<br>
- - - -<br>
If more coal is used by 2040 than in previous history, humanity will
become extinct. These are consequences the IEA does not discuss.<br>
Such ministerial naivety is laughable, but it highlights a serious
governance failure. As with company directors, it is incumbent upon
ministers to understand these issues, in particular the risks to
which the Australian community is exposed by their decisions.<br>
The only possible justification for Minister Canavan's view is that
he does not believe climate change is even a problem, let alone
accept the need to rapidly reduce emissions. Further, he has no
understanding of the implications of his proposed action.<br>
Whatever the Minister's personal position, or the views of those who
voted for him, given the overwhelming science and evidence
confirming the urgency to address climate change, such ignorance is
unacceptable and a fundamental breach of his fiduciary
responsibility to the nation...<br>
- - - - -<br>
Many argue that current failures are the nature of politics and we
should expect little else. But when the key issues are existential,
that is to consign democracy to the dustbin of history and to accept
increasing social chaos.<br>
In contrast to earlier eras, the concepts of fiduciary
responsibility, public interest and public trust, are clearly not
understood by the incumbency, from the Prime Minister down. This
has to be corrected.<br>
A Federal Parliament with any degree of such responsibility, would
recognise that climate change poses an unprecedented threat to
Australia's future prosperity, requiring emergency action.<br>
To those prepared to honour this obligation, there is ample
information before parliament to warrant that conclusion.<br>
In the public interest, parliamentarians would set aside party
political differences, adopting a bipartisan approach to structuring
such action, with the bureaucracy in full support.<br>
That is highly unlikely, so there remains legal action. Around the
world the seriousness of the climate threat, and the inaction of
governments, is prompting communities to take this step, with
increasing success. The same will happen in Australia, absent an
outburst of commonsense within the political class.<br>
<font size="-1">Ian Dunlop was formerly an international oil, gas
and coal industry executive, chair of the Australian Coal
Association and CEO of the Australian Institute of Company
Directors. He is a Member of the Club of Rome<br>
More at:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/climate-change-fiduciary-responsibility-politicians-bureaucrats-59891/">https://reneweconomy.com.au/climate-change-fiduciary-responsibility-politicians-bureaucrats-59891/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Not very difficult math]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/apr/26/the-missing-maths-the-human-cost-of-fossil-fuels">The
missing maths: the human cost of fossil fuels</a></b><br>
We should account for the costs of disease and death from fossil
fuel pollution in climate change policies<br>
While the climate policy world is littered with numbers, three of
them have dominated recent discourse: 2, 1000, and 66.<span> </span><br>
At the 2015<span> </span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/dec/14/the-paris-agreement-signals-that-deniers-have-lost-the-climate-wars"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">U.N. climate summit in Paris</a>,
world leaders agreed to limit global warming below<span> </span><a
href="http://theconversation.com/why-is-climate-changes-2-degrees-celsius-of-warming-limit-so-important-82058"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">2degreesC</a><span> </span>to avoid
catastrophic impacts of human-caused climate change. The science
consequently dictates that, for a 50% chance of staying below
2degreesC, around<span> </span><a
href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">1,000 billion tonnes of carbon
dioxide</a><span> </span>(or 300 billion tonnes of carbon) can be
emitted between now and 2050, and close to zero thereafter. We're
currently emitting 36 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year.
However, the potential greenhouse gas emissions contained in known,
extractable fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than
this carbon budget, meaning that<span> </span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/07/much-worlds-fossil-fuel-reserve-must-stay-buried-prevent-climate-change-study-says"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">66%</a><span> </span>must be kept in
the ground.<br>
The debate du jour thus centers on which emissions reduction pathway
is most optimal for staying below 2degreesC. The calculus of many
policymakers, economists, fossil fuel companies, and indeed
scientists, is that the most economical way to stay below 2degreesC
is to delay most emissions reductions for decades to come, and then
to play catch up by relying heavily on as-yet technically and
economically unviable<span> </span><a
href="http://smartstones.nl/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Kevin-Anderson-2016.10.13-the-Trouble-with-Negative-Emissions-Science-2016.pdf"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(199, 0, 0); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out; outline: 0px; border-top-color:
rgb(75, 198, 223); border-right-color: rgb(75, 198, 223);
border-left-color: rgb(75, 198, 223);">negative-emissions
technologies</a>. However, a crucial number has been neglected in
this mainstream calculation: 6.1 million<strong style="font-weight:
bold;">.</strong><br>
Each year,<span> </span><a
href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/over-7-billion-people-face-unsafe-air-state-global-air-2018"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">6.1 million lives</a><span> </span>are
lost prematurely due to air pollution. Though most acutely and
visibly hampering megacities of the developing world, air pollution
is a growing public health emergency that affects almost all of us
in our daily lives, whether or not we are aware of it. The<span> </span><a
href="http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/over-7-billion-people-face-unsafe-air-state-global-air-2018"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">Health Effects Institute</a><span> </span>estimates
that only 5% of the global population are lucky enough to live in
areas with air pollution levels below safe guidelines. Though<span> </span><a
href="https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/u-s-seniors-air-pollution-premature-death/"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">recent studies</a><span> </span>suggest
there may in fact be no risk-free level of air pollution<br>
- - - - - <br>
Why is this number relevant to climate policy? Because one common
culprit is responsible for the majority of both climate change and
air pollution:<span> </span><a
href="http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736%2817%2932345-0.pdf?__hstc=140923309.98c96f79079b931c19c54fa3102964c0.1509979610958.1509979610958.1509979610958.1&__hssc=140923309.3.1509979610959&__hsfp=2586996578"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">fuel combustion</a>. Burning coal,
oil, natural gas, and biomass - for everyday uses ranging from
electricity, heating, cooking, to transportation - releases hundreds
of gases and particles, some of which disrupt the climate system or
are harmful to human health, or both. Climate change could also<span> </span><a
href="https://health2016.globalchange.gov/air-quality-impacts"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">worsen air quality</a><span> </span>in
the future.<br>
Decades of research have revealed that air pollution is associated
with a wide range of<span> </span><a
href="http://www.who.int/airpollution/en/" data-link-name="in body
link" class="u-underline" style="background: transparent;
touch-action: manipulation; color: rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor:
pointer; text-decoration: none !important; border-bottom:
0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition: border-color 0.15s
ease-out;">diseases and disorders</a>, including asthma, cancer,
heart disease, stroke, and premature birth. There is also<span> </span><a
href="https://theconversation.com/air-pollution-may-be-damaging-childrens-brains-before-they-are-even-born-39409"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">emerging evidence</a><span> </span>that
pollution from coal combustion and motor vehicles can cause
development delays, reduced IQ, and autism in children. The societal
and economic costs of air pollution are<span> </span><a
href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29295510"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">multifold</a>. There are costs to
the affected individuals, to their families and to society in terms
of direct medical costs, costs to healthcare systems, productivity
losses, and lower economic growth (not to mention costs resulting
from damages to ecosystems).<br>
<br>
Yet almost none of these costs stemming from our fossil fuel
reliance are included in the majority of cost-benefit analyses of
climate mitigation strategies. A<span> </span><a
href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196%2818%2930029-9/fulltext"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">recent study</a><span> </span>estimates
that the<span> </span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/apr/23/pruitt-promised-polluters-epa-will-value-their-profits-over-american-lives"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">health co-benefits</a><span> </span>from
air pollution reductions would outweigh the mitigation costs of
staying below 2degreesC by 140-250% globally. Historical evidence
paints a similar picture. The<span> </span><a
href="https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/benefits-and-costs-clean-air-act-1990-2020-second-prospective-study"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">EPA estimates</a><span> </span>that
the U.S. Clean Air Amendments cost $65bn to implement, but will have
yielded a benefit of almost $2tn by 2020 in avoided health costs.<br>
Many<span> </span><a
href="http://www.thelancet.com/commissions/pollution-and-health"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">public health</a><span> </span><a
href="http://www.lung.org/get-involved/become-an-advocate/public-policy-position-energy.html"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">expert groups</a><span> </span>have
underscored the enormous opportunity for leaders worldwide to design
policies and initiatives that will simultaneously tackle climate
change and air pollution. Examples include replacing the most
carbon-intensive and polluting sources such as coal and heavy-duty
diesel with lower-emission or renewable alternatives,<span> </span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/aug/07/fossil-fuel-subsidies-are-a-staggering-5-tn-per-year"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">ending fossil fuel subsidies</a>,
redesigning urban spaces to make it easier and safer to commute by
foot, bicycle, and public transportation, and transitioning to a
more circular and sustainable economy. While the climatic mitigation
effects of such measures are long-term and dispersed globally, the
health benefits are immediate and local.<span> </span><br>
For too long, the enormous toll of disease and deaths from fossil
fuel pollution has been neglected in climate change policies and
underappreciated by the public. But public health data makes it
clear that not all 2degreesC scenarios are created equal. The lives
and well-being of<span> </span><a
href="https://thinkprogress.org/climate-action-could-save-over-150-million-lives-2e741962eae8/"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(199, 0, 0); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out; outline: 0px; border-top-color:
rgb(75, 198, 223); border-right-color: rgb(75, 198, 223);
border-left-color: rgb(75, 198, 223);">hundreds of millions of us</a><span>
</span>- especially our children - could be at stake. We would be
remiss to ignore it.<br>
<font size="-1"><em>Dr. Ploy Achakulwisut is a Postdoctoral
Scientist at the George Washington University Milken Institute
School of Public<span> </span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/health"
data-link-name="auto-linked-tag"
data-component="auto-linked-tag" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation;
color: rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none
!important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220);
transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out;">Health</a>. She has
a PhD in Atmospheric Science from Harvard University.</em></font><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/apr/26/the-missing-maths-the-human-cost-of-fossil-fuels">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/apr/26/the-missing-maths-the-human-cost-of-fossil-fuels</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[heat increases violence]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.rappler.com/science-nature/ideas/science-solitaire/200787-global-warming-making-us-lose-cool">Global
warming is making us lose our cool</a></b><br>
Maria Isabel Garcia<br>
There seems to be something about rising temperatures that
contributes to the ascent of human tempers <br>
We are losing our minds because of climate change.<br>
We are no strangers to the losses brought about by climate change:
landscapes that drastically change, animals that could not cope and
have become endangered or extinct, coasts that have been eaten up by
rising sea levels, croplands that have been scorched by draught or
drowned in floods. And it is not only natural capital we are losing
- we are also being cut off from the anchors of meaning, because we
humans have cultivated meaning that are tied to the natural
environment. No matter how much you love the internet, all culture
is still anchored in place, in the natural world. Human-caused
climate change is altering the natural world at rates so much faster
than natural systems can say the ecological equivalent of "What the
%*&%!$?" and cope to restore themselves. But it gets worse:
science has also found that the loss has crept in even more
intimately into our humanity. We seem to lose it when climates warm
up.<br>
<br>
By "losing our minds," I specifically mean that we all generally
lose our cool because of climate change. We become hot-headed and
thus, violent. I wish I were making this up, but a <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2013/07/31/science.1235367">study</a>
I came across looked at a lot of data across centuries and found
that higher temperatures indeed caused more violence.<br>
<br>
The review looked at 60 studies found in various fields like
archaeology, economics, psychology, and criminology that probed what
climate and violence had to do with each other. It studied cases
across history - from as far back as 10,000 BCE up to the present -
in many different parts of the world and what the review found was
really disheartening: apart from the things known to cause eruptions
of violence (like massive unrest, discrimination, revenge, and
grievances of many kinds) hotter, wetter climate also upped the ante
for violence.<br>
<br>
And this was not only violence among groups (civil wars, riots, and
ethnic violence) but also personal violence (murder, assault, rape
and domestic violence) as well as collapse of institutions and
civilizations. This is probably enough for you to revisit records of
personal family histories as well as the recorded rise and fall of
the great powers, and to think about higher temperatures as a major
factor behind any violence. What was remarkably scary was that the
review saw a pattern wherein extreme climate conditions led to a
rise in violence regardless of a nation's wealth, geography, and
period in time. There seems to be something about rising
temperatures that contributes to the ascent of human tempers.<br>
<br>
This is not to say that our hot tempers are only triggered by rising
temperatures. That is too simplistic. Humans have multiple triggers
that act on each other like a Rube Goldberg machine. Scientists who
did the research posed that one reason for the violence may have to
do with the impact of hotter temperatures on crop yields. This
strikes at the heart of sectors whose literal and metaphorical guts
are sustained by agriculture - press this button hard, and you get
an uprising. We did a related study on this many years ago when we
were trying to uncover links of environmental degradation to civil
strife. The pathways we found were similar: people's lifelines are
anchored on land, and so if the land won't yield sustenance, the
tendency to find blame or simply erupt out of desperation is a lot
more likely.<br>
<br>
Hunger is definitely a reliable path to anger. There are very few
things that could cause tempers to flare more than food issues. This
BBC article explored the prospects of food supply with climate
change, and the verdict from the studies cited is clear: yields go
down after 30degreesC. This is very true of the major crops on which
the world is so dependent: corn, wheat, rice, and soy. Crops cannot
naturally cope with temperatures that are rising so fast. This is
why genetic engineering - if done carefully and with an eye toward
possible dangers and effects in other parts of the ecosystem - could
be part of the solution, while we also get our act together in
transforming the way we consume, heating the planet in the process.<br>
<br>
The BBC article also pointed out how traditional sources of food
will shift and most likely will not be as accessible as before. This
will cause major increases in the prices of many food items, and
will disrupt sources of sustenance for populations. Imagining this,
it would not be a stretch to see how climate change can cause
violence among neighbors, countries, or regions.<br>
<br>
The earlier study on hotter temperatures and violence drew their
conclusions from data that showed a less than 1degreesC rise in
history. We are looking at 2degreesC by 2050. The scientists
involved in the study said that this increases the risk of civil war
in many countries by 50%!<br>
<br>
Climate change is the plague of our time. It strips us of our land,
water, and food. It also affects our sense of safety, our sense of
place and, now we know, even our sense of peace. What more does
science have to show that we are losing so we can get our act
together in arresting the fast rise in global temperatures? 'Til we
have nothing left to surrender? - Rappler.com<br>
<br>
Maria Isabel Garcia is a science writer.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.rappler.com/science-nature/ideas/science-solitaire/200787-global-warming-making-us-lose-cool">https://www.rappler.com/science-nature/ideas/science-solitaire/200787-global-warming-making-us-lose-cool</a></font><br>
- [Research Article]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2013/07/31/science.1235367">Quantifying
the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict</a></b><br>
Solomon M. Hsiang, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel<br>
Abstract<br>
<blockquote>A rapidly growing body of research examines whether
human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from
archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political
science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most
rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a
remarkable convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence
linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of
spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the
world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for
each 1 standard deviation change in climate toward warmer
temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate
that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the
frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations
throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2 to 4σ by
2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large
and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2013/07/31/science.1235367">http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2013/07/31/science.1235367</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Superb video, very current, with a few quibbles over terms]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=919MEnyRzKA">"Climate
change: past, present and future" with Prof Sir David Hendry"</a></b><br>
Oxford Martin School, Streamed live April 30, 2018<br>
The talk draws on findings from applying novel empirical approaches
to understanding climate change and its impacts in the past,
present, and future.<br>
The talk will highlight the impact major 'natural' changes in global
climate have had on the five largest mass extinctions over the last
500 million years, and will explain modelling of recent CO2
emissions and concentrations which confirm the impact of human
activity, with a focus on UK CO2 emissions over the period 1860 -
2016. The role of major policy interventions which have reduced the
UK's per capita annual emissions below any level since 1860 when the
UK was the 'workshop of the world' will be investigated. <br>
Professor Sir David Hendry, INET Oxford and Climate Econometrics,
will illustrate how to investigate the costs of 'mis-forecasting'
extreme climate events by studying the economic impacts of
inaccuracies in hurricane forecasts and will discuss empirical
evidence on local climate impacts of emissions and what influences
climate-change scepticism.<br>
Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk">www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk</a><b><br>
</b><font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=919MEnyRzKA">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=919MEnyRzKA</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[awareness of the future]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180425120245.htm">No
future for egoists - that's what their brain says!</a></b><br>
Researchers analysed the cerebral activity of egotistical people,
discovering that they do not think about the future if it seems too
far off to concern them<br>
Some people are worried about the future consequences of climate
change, while others consider them too remote to have an impact on
their well-being. Researchers at the University of Geneva (UNIGE),
Switzerland, examined how these differences are reflected in our
brains. With the help of neuro-imaging, the scientists found that
people deemed "egotistical" do not use the area of the brain that
enables us to look into and imagine the distant future. In
"altruistic" individuals, on the other hand, the same area is alive
with activity. The research results, published in the journal
Cognitive, Affective & Behavioural Neuroscience, may help
psychologists devise exercises that put this specific area of the
brain to work. These could be used to improve people's ability to
project themselves into the future and raise their awareness of, for
example, the effects of climate change.<br>
<br>
The concerns experienced by human beings are built on their values,
which determine whether individuals prioritize their personal
well-being or put themselves on an equal footing with their peers.
In order to encourage as many people as possible to adopt
"sustainable" behaviour, it is thus necessary that they feel the
consequences of climate change are relevant to them. Some
individuals - who are more self-centred - do not worry about the
consequences, believing that these potential disasters are too far
off.<br>
<br>
"We wondered what magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) could teach us
about how the brain processes information about the future impact of
climate change, and how this mechanism differs depending on the
self-centeredness of the individual," says Tobias Brosch, professor
in the Psychology Section at UNIGE's Faculty of Psychology and
Educational Sciences (FPSE).<br>
<br>
Are egoists only afraid of what directly concerns them?<br>
<br>
The UNIGE psychologists turned to the report drawn up by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, where they identified
predictions about the outcomes of climate change, such as a
reduction in drinking water supplies, an increase in border
conflicts and a spike in natural disasters. They then assigned a
year in the future to each of these effects, stating when it would
come to pass.<br>
<br>
Brosch's team invited a panel of participants to complete a
standardized questionnaire to measure the value hierarchies, marking
the selfish or altruistic tendencies of each individual. One by one,
the participants underwent an MRI before being shown the dated
consequences of the events; they then had to answer two questions on
a scale of 1 to 8: Is it serious? Are you afraid?<br>
<br>
"The first result we obtained was that for people with egotistical
tendencies, the near future is much more worrying than the distant
future, which will only come about after they are dead. In
altruistic people, this difference disappears, since they see the
seriousness as being the same," explains Brosch.<br>
<br>
Selfishness makes the brain lazy<br>
<br>
The psychologists then focused on the activity in the ventromedial
pre-frontal cortex (vmPFC), an area of the brain above the eyes that
is used when thinking about the future and trying to visualize it.
"We found that with altruistic people, this cerebral zone is
activated more forcefully when the subject is confronted with the
consequences of a distant future as compared to the near future. By
contrast, in an egotistical person, there is no increase in activity
between a consequence in the near future and one in the distant
future," says Brosch.<br>
<br>
This particular region of the brain is mainly used for projecting
oneself into the distant future. The absence of heightened activity
in a self-centred person indicates the absence of projection and the
fact that the individual does not feel concerned by what will happen
after his or her death. Why, then, should such people adopt
sustainable forms of behaviour?<br>
<br>
Set your projection capabilities to work<br>
<br>
These outcomes, which can be applied to areas other than climate
change, demonstrate the importance of being able to think about the
distant future in order to adapt one's behaviour to the future
constraints of the world. "We could imagine a psychological training
that would work on this brain area using projection exercises,"
suggests Brosch. "In particular, we could use virtual reality, which
would make the tomorrow's world visible to everyone, bringing human
beings closer to the consequences of their actions."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180425120245.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180425120245.htm</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Book blurb - looking back to look forward]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.amazon.com/Fate-Rome-Climate-Disease-Princeton/dp/0691166838/ref=sr_1_1">The
Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire (The
Princeton History of the Ancient World)</a></b><br>
A sweeping new history of how climate change and disease helped
bring down the Roman Empire<br>
Here is the monumental retelling of one of the most consequential
chapters of human history: the fall of the Roman Empire. The Fate of
Rome is the first book to examine the catastrophic role that climate
change and infectious diseases played in the collapse of Rome's
power - a story of nature's triumph over human ambition.<br>
Interweaving a grand historical narrative with cutting-edge climate
science and genetic discoveries, Kyle Harper traces how the fate of
Rome was decided not just by emperors, soldiers, and barbarians but
also by volcanic eruptions, solar cycles, climate instability, and
devastating viruses and bacteria. He takes readers from Rome's
pinnacle in the second century, when the empire seemed an invincible
superpower, to its unraveling by the seventh century, when Rome was
politically fragmented and materially depleted. Harper describes how
the Romans were resilient in the face of enormous environmental
stress, until the besieged empire could no longer withstand the
combined challenges of a "little ice age" and recurrent outbreaks of
bubonic plague.<br>
A poignant reflection on humanity's intimate relationship with the
environment, The Fate of Rome provides a sweeping account of how one
of history's greatest civilizations encountered and endured, yet
ultimately succumbed to the cumulative burden of nature's violence.
The example of Rome is a timely reminder that climate change and
germ evolution have shaped the world we inhabit - in ways that are
surprising and profound.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.amazon.com/Fate-Rome-Climate-Disease-Princeton/dp/0691166838/ref=sr_1_1">https://www.amazon.com/Fate-Rome-Climate-Disease-Princeton/dp/0691166838/ref=sr_1_1</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[humor on the lunacy of "raw" water]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjJJeFDk8Ok">A Deep Dive
into the "Raw Water" Craze | The Daily Show</a></b><br>
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah Published on Apr 23, 2018<br>
Desi Lydic investigates the dubious health benefits of "raw water"
with the help of Live Water CEO Mukhande Singh and food safety
expert Marion Nestle.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjJJeFDk8Ok">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjJJeFDk8Ok</a><br>
- - - - <br>
[More on raw water]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T961Wk-2YXg">Stephen
Colbert's 'Go Fund Yourself': Raw Water</a></b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T961Wk-2YXg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T961Wk-2YXg</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?slug=2748308&date=19980501">This
Day in Climate History - May 1, 1998 </a>- from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
May 1, 1998: The AP reports on a bogus petition allegedly claiming
that 15,000 scientists reject the evidence of human-caused climate
change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?slug=2748308&date=19980501">http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?slug=2748308&date=19980501</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py2XVILHUjQ">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py2XVILHUjQ</a><br>
<br>
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