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<font size="+1"><i>May 10, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[encompasses Seattle region]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/king-county-suing-oil-giants-for-climate-change-impacts/281-550675606">King
County suing oil giants for climate change impacts</a></b><br>
KING5.com May 9, 2018<br>
King County is suing oil giants BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal
Dutch and ConocoPhillips.<br>
King County says oil companies need to start paying for the impacts
of climate change, so it's suing Chevron, Exxon and other oil
giants.<br>
The county alleges the companies knowingly contributed to climate
disruptions, and that they put King County residents at greater risk
for floods, landslides, ocean acidification, and other impacts.<font
size="-1"><br>
</font>"The science is undisputable: climate change is impacting our
region today, and it will only cause greater havoc and hardships in
the future," said King County Executive Dow Constantine in a
released statement.<br>
"The companies that profited the most from fossil fuels should help
bear the costs of managing these disasters. Big Oil spent many
decades disregarding and dismissing what is our most pressing
generational challenge. We must hold these companies accountable as
we marshal our resources to protect and preserve what makes this
region great."<br>
King County wants the oil companies to pay for adapting
infrastructure, like storm-water management and other costs.
Attorneys for the county say this could result in hundreds of
millions of dollars.<br>
KING 5 has reached out to an oil industry group for reaction, but
has not gotten a response yet.<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/king-county-suing-oil-giants-for-climate-change-impacts/281-550675606">https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/king-county-suing-oil-giants-for-climate-change-impacts/281-550675606</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[Press Release]<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.kingcounty.gov/elected/executive/constantine/news/release/2018/May/09-climate-lawsuit.aspx">https://www.kingcounty.gov/elected/executive/constantine/news/release/2018/May/09-climate-lawsuit.aspx</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[3 minute video interesting local solution]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKmfGI5Ogik">The Ecoblock
Project: Urban Retrofitting for Sustainability</a></b><br>
University of California Television (UCTV)<br>
Published on May 8, 2018<br>
(Visit: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.uctv.tv/">http://www.uctv.tv/</a>)
This entrant in the Le Monde Smart Cities Urban Innovation Awards
2018 is a brief overview of the Oakland Ecoblock Project to
revitalize an urban block with sustainable retrofit technologies and
strategies. <font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKmfGI5Ogik">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKmfGI5Ogik</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[No pipelines needed]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-power-insight/off-grid-power-pioneers-pour-into-west-africa-idUSKCN1G41PE">Off-grid
power pioneers pour into West Africa</a></b><br>
Joe Bavier - ABIDJAN (Reuters)<br>
Buoyed by success in East Africa, off-grid solar power startups are
pouring into West Africa, offering pay-as-you-go kits in a race to
claim tens of millions of customers who lack reliable access to
electricity.<br>
At least 11 companies, including leading East African players such
as Greenlight Planet, d.light, Off-Grid Electric (OGE), M-KOPE
Solar, Fenix International and BBOXX, have moved into the region,
most within the last two years.<br>
With a potential market worth billions of dollars, major European
energy companies such as French utilities EDF and Engie are taking
notice too.<br>
"It's important to be there now, because the race has already
started," said Marianne Laigneau, senior executive vice president of
EDF's international division.<br>
The main challenge facing smaller companies now is how to raise
enough capital to supply the expensive solar kits in return for
small upfront payments from customers...<br>
<font size="-2">More at:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-power-insight/off-grid-power-pioneers-pour-into-west-africa-idUSKCN1G41PE">https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-power-insight/off-grid-power-pioneers-pour-into-west-africa-idUSKCN1G41PE</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[Solar only with sunshine]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.vox.com/2018/5/9/17336330/duck-curve-solar-energy-supply-demand-problem-caiso-nrel">This
"duck curve" is solar energy's greatest challenge</a></b><br>
Renewables require a change in the how we supply electricity.<br>
By Carlos Waters<br>
Electricity is very difficult to store. But most consumers use it in
a very predictable pattern. So utility managers use demand curves to
anticipate the electric needs of their customers. And as solar
energy expands, their job is getting a bit more difficult.<br>
Solar energy production peaks at mid-day, and this causes demand for
other energy to drop off. Researchers in California call this
seeming drop in demand the "duck curve." The more solar energy
capacity increases, the more the curve looks like the belly of a
duck<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://youtu.be/YYLzss58CLs">See
the video</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/YYLzss58CLs">https://youtu.be/YYLzss58CLs</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.vox.com/2018/5/9/17336330/duck-curve-solar-energy-supply-demand-problem-caiso-nrel">https://www.vox.com/2018/5/9/17336330/duck-curve-solar-energy-supply-demand-problem-caiso-nrel</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Chicago Tonight TV interview - clip: 11 minutes]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.pbs.org/video/harvard-scientist-climate-change-may-be-worse-we-think-qej5d/">Harvard
Scientist: Climate Change May Be Worse Than We Think</a></b><br>
Daniel Schrag's professional credentials are impressive: He's the
director of the Center for the Environment at Harvard University
where he's a professor of environmental science and engineering. At
Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, Schrag is co-director of the
Science, Technology, and Public Policy program. Throughout President
Barack Obama's eight years in office, Schrag served on the
President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology,
contributing to many reports... <br>
But nowhere in his extensive resume' will you find "prophet of
doom."...<br>
As it stands now, Schrag concludes the "experiment" is not going
well. He says that "over the next few decades, Earth's atmosphere
will return to a state not seen for millions of years."..<br>
"We're likely to see 4 maybe even 6 degrees (Celsius) of (global)
warming over the next 100 years," says Schrag, "and it's happening
more than 100 times faster than climate change we've experienced in
the past." Schrag believes there might be even more to be concerned
about, saying there might be additional factors worsening climate
change that scientists have not anticipated.<br>
Adding to his grim forecast, Schrag says reversing the trend will be
neither easy nor quick. For one thing, more than half of the CO2
currently affecting climate change will remain in our atmosphere
1,000 years from now. "A silver-bullet solution is not around the
corner. It will require innovative investments sustained for at
least the next century," he says.<br>
Schrag says public policy energy choices made "over the next decade
or two will have profound effects on the Earth's system, on every
living thing on the planet." Schrag says determined and sustained
energy choices that reduce CO2 emissions are urgently needed to
prevent his doomsday prophecies from becoming realities of biblical
proportions.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.pbs.org/video/3012332925/">http://www.pbs.org/video/3012332925/</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.pbs.org/video/harvard-scientist-climate-change-may-be-worse-we-think-qej5d/">http://www.pbs.org/video/harvard-scientist-climate-change-may-be-worse-we-think-qej5d/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
Capital Weather Gang<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/08/due-to-climate-change-hurricanes-are-raining-harder-and-may-be-growing-stronger-faster/?utm_term=.d06e76cff876">Because
of climate change, hurricanes are raining harder and may be
growing stronger more quickl</a></b>y<br>
By Jason Samenow<br>
Hurricanes are fueled by heat, and in late August, before Harvey
struck, ocean heat content reached record high levels in the western
Gulf of Mexico.<br>
The study determined that the energy released into the atmosphere
from Harvey's rainfall matched the amount of energy which was
removed from the ocean in the storm's wake. In other words, the
study found that the amount of heat stored in the ocean is directly
related to how much rain a storm can unload.<br>
The implication is that if climate change, driven by increasing
greenhouse gases from human activity, increases the heat content of
the ocean, storms passing over it will be able to draw ever more
moisture that they can unload as rain.<br>
Harvey dumped more than 60 inches of rain in parts of Southeast
Texas, the most ever recorded from a single storm in the United
States in recorded history.<br>
"[R]ecord high ocean heat values not only increased the fuel
available to sustain and intensify Harvey, but also increased its
flooding rains on land," the study said. "Harvey could not have
produced so much rain without human-induced climate change."<br>
The implication is that if climate change, driven by increasing
greenhouse gases from human activity, increases the heat content of
the ocean, storms passing over it will be able to draw ever more
moisture that they can unload as rain...<br>
- - - -<br>
"Given the price tag with units of hundreds of billions of dollars
for the recent hurricanes, a modest (two orders of magnitude less)
investment in building resiliency may well have saved billions and a
lot of grief," the study concluded.<br>
Atlantic hurricane season officially begins in less than three
weeks.<br>
<font size="-1">More at: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/08/due-to-climate-change-hurricanes-are-raining-harder-and-may-be-growing-stronger-faster/?utm_term=.d06e76cff876">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/08/due-to-climate-change-hurricanes-are-raining-harder-and-may-be-growing-stronger-faster/?utm_term=.d06e76cff876</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[advanced climate lesson, heavily academic aimed at science majors]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://youtu.be/Q-ExNAl7vwk?t=6m32s">Simple principles
underpinning climate change: Prof Bjorn Stevens (April 2018)</a></b><br>
[from <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUEAmEnrDWA">Hablemos de
Físicas. Simple principles</a> underpinning understanding of
climate change. <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/aUEAmEnrDWA">https://youtu.be/aUEAmEnrDWA</a>
UCM - multilanguage captions available]<br>
English lecture start: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/Q-ExNAl7vwk?t=6m32s">https://youtu.be/Q-ExNAl7vwk?t=6m32s</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Water usage analysis]<br>
<b><a
href="https://thebulletin.org/what-cape-town-learned-its-drought11698">What
Cape Town learned from its drought</a></b><br>
Piotr Wolski - APRIL 2018<br>
Analysts will continue to dissect the crisis in the months and years
to come. There already is a multitude, and there will be more of
"Someone should have…", "Had that been done…", "What if…" opinions.
But opinions are dependent on the particular worldview, political
affiliation, and (narrow) professional experience of the observer.
Some facts are indisputable, however. The drought was-and still
is-very severe, and beyond our control. Our water supply system was
not resilient enough to withstand it. In such a situation, other
factors likely played only a moderating role.<br>
- -- - - -<br>
Cape Town went through a process of learning and adaptation to
conditions that are likely to occur more often in the
future-conditions also faced by many cities in the world. The city
has not only staved off the immediate threat, but hopefully emerged
more resilient. There are many developments that are here to stay: a
transformed, more resilient water supply system; water-saving
hardware in houses; water-saving behaviors-or at least a good
knowledge of such; a growing comprehension of water as a limited
resource; a greater understanding of the workings of the water
supply system; various community initiatives to support water-saving
in general; providing support to the vulnerable; experience of
government structures in working with incipient crisis; and so
forth. The list goes on and on. This all bodes well for the city to
face the challenges of the future. Learning was a hard process. But
the outcomes were worth it...<br>
<font size="-1">More at: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://thebulletin.org/what-cape-town-learned-its-drought11698">https://thebulletin.org/what-cape-town-learned-its-drought11698</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Sierra Club call to action]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.addup.org/campaigns/tell-congress-dont-undermine-anti-hunger-programs">New
Farm Bill Full of Merde</a></b><br>
It's hard to exaggerate how brazenly anti-environmental the farm
bill now wending its way through the U.S. House of Representatives
truly is. Let's see... it exempts pesticides from the Endangered
Species and Clean Water Acts. It boosts logging, removes
environmental reviews, and makes it easier to build roads in
national forests. It undermines sustainable agriculture, makes it
tougher for people to qualify for nutrition assistance, and tips the
scales toward corporate interests and away from small farmers. Get
the picture? The bill is likely to come up for a full House vote
this month.<br>
<a
href="https://www.addup.org/campaigns/tell-congress-dont-undermine-anti-hunger-programs">Urge
your representative to oppose the farm bill.</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.addup.org/campaigns/tell-congress-dont-undermine-anti-hunger-programs">https://www.addup.org/campaigns/tell-congress-dont-undermine-anti-hunger-programs</a><br>
<br>
<br>
(VR product )<br>
Dutch company SIM-CI (simulating critical infrastructures) does
Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality<br>
<b><a href="https://www.sim-ci.com/"> SIM-CI believes that its
simulation platform contributes to the development of a more
resilient world</a></b>. In order to achieve these goals, set
out by the UN, such as eradicating poverty, stimulating prosperity
and providing economic progress to all, it is essential that we
fortify our gas, energy, electricity and mobility networks.
Disruptions to CIs can have disastrous consequences, from leaving
citizens without power to disrupting entire economies. Preventing
and mitigating these risks serves to protect our economies, as well
as our people.<br>
<a href="https://www.sim-ci.com/download/4796/">Download White Paper</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sim-ci.com/download/4796/">https://www.sim-ci.com/download/4796/</a><br>
SIM-CI gains insight and foresight in these events by simulating the
cascading effects, starting with the flood itself and ending with
the number of people in areas affected by a power outage. Floods are
simulated by making use of height maps, buildings and waterway data.
The cause of the flood can be chosen, for example, a dike breakage
or high river water. The water heights in the region are calculated
whilst critical infrastructures are simulated and examined, for
instance, checking high water levels in electrical substations as
they might flood, causing failures in electricity networks. If and
when this happens, the electricity networks are recalculated and
used as input for determining possible cascading effects. Checking
whether telecom towers are up and running could be one of the
examples.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.sim-ci.com/">https://www.sim-ci.com/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
[to learn about deep throated denial, always follow the money]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2018/may/08/its-all-about-vested-interests-untangling-conspiracy-conservatism-and-climate-scepticism">'It's
all about vested interests': untangling conspiracy, conservatism
and climate scepticism</a></b><br>
Graham Readfearn<br>
Study across 24 countries suggests the fossil fuel industry has
reshaped conservative political values in the US and Australia<br>
Academics have suggested that people who tend to accept conspiracy
theories also underplay or reject the science showing humans are
causing rapid and dangerous climate change.<br>
But a<span> </span><a
href="http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0157-2"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(224, 94, 0); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none
!important; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220);
transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out;">new study</a><span> </span>that
tested this idea across 24 different countries found the link
between so-called "conspiratorial ideation" and "climate scepticism"
only really holds in the US.<br>
University of Queensland psychology professor Matthew Hornsey and
colleagues surveyed 5,300 people to test the link between climate
"scepticism" and acceptance of four internationally propagated
conspiracy theories around the assassination of President Kennedy,
the 11 September terrorist attacks, the death of Princess Diana and
the existence of a new world order.<br>
<span style="color: rgb(18, 18, 18); font-size: medium; font-style:
normal; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:
0px; background-color: rgb(254, 249, 245); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline !
important; float: none;">Only in the US did the correlation fall
outside the margin of error. This is perhaps not surprising, given
the<span> </span></span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2016/dec/06/more-terrifying-than-trump-the-booming-conspiracy-culture-of-climate-science-denial"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: rgb(254, 249, 245) none repeat scroll 0% 0%;
touch-action: manipulation; color: rgb(224, 94, 0); cursor:
pointer; text-decoration: none ! important; border-bottom:
0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition: border-color 0.15s
ease-out 0s; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align:
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space:
normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">booming
online conspiracy culture</a><span style="color: rgb(18, 18, 18);
font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(254, 249,
245); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline ! important; float: none;"><span> </span>in
the<span> </span></span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2016/oct/21/we-are-approaching-the-trumpocene-a-new-epoch-where-climate-change-is-just-a-big-scary-conspiracy"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: rgb(254, 249, 245) none repeat scroll 0% 0%;
touch-action: manipulation; color: rgb(224, 94, 0); cursor:
pointer; text-decoration: none ! important; border-bottom:
0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition: border-color 0.15s
ease-out 0s; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align:
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space:
normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">Trumpocene</a><span
style="color: rgb(18, 18, 18); font-size: medium; font-style:
normal; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:
0px; background-color: rgb(254, 249, 245); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline !
important; float: none;">, with even<span> </span></span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2017/feb/21/trumps-potential-science-adviser-william-happer-hanging-around-with-conspiracy-theorists"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: rgb(254, 249, 245) none repeat scroll 0% 0%;
touch-action: manipulation; color: rgb(224, 94, 0); cursor:
pointer; text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid
rgb(224, 94, 0); transition: border-color 0.15s ease-out 0s;
outline: 0px none; border-color: rgb(75, 198, 223) rgb(75, 198,
223) rgb(224, 94, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align:
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space:
normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">would-be
presidential science advisers hanging around with conspiracy
theorists</a><span style="color: rgb(18, 18, 18); font-size:
medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
common-ligatures; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(254, 249,
245); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline ! important; float: none;">.</span><br>
- - -- <br>
There's been a general acceptance that people who have broadly
conservative or rightwing ideologies tend to rail against climate
science because it rubs their worldview up the wrong way. That is,
that tackling climate change will require broad interventions from
governments.<br>
But Hornsey's study finds that "there is nothing inherent to
conspiratorial ideation or conservative ideologies that predisposes
people to reject climate science".<br>
Instead, it suggests vested interests have managed to reshape the
conservative identity with "ignorance-building strategies" in two
countries - the US and Australia.<br>
<blockquote>Rather, the link between conservatism and climate
scepticism only emerges in countries that are economically
threatened by the notion of responding to climate change. When the
vested interests are high (in terms of the fossil fuel industry,
for example) then there is more of a motivation for big business
to engage in an organised campaign of misinformation around
climate change. These campaigns often develop as a collaboration
between the fossil fuel industry and conservative thinktanks,
media and politicians, and are designed to "coach" conservatives
to believe that the climate science is not yet settled. From this
perspective, conservatives don't spontaneously feel the need to
reject climate science; they only do so when they are taking their
cues from conservative elites, and these cues only emerge when the
economic stakes are high.<br>
Second, America has an unusually intense brand of conservatism,
one that has a particularly strong opposition to government
interference in the free market. Climate science is a nightmare
for these people, because in some ways it does imply a
big-government response designed to regulate industry.<br>
- - - -<br>
I think it's all about vested interests. When the vested interests
are high, the fossil fuel industry and conservative thinktanks,
media and politicians collaborate in an organised campaign of
misinformation. In my data, the link between conservatism and
scepticism is really only obvious in countries with high per
capita carbon emissions.<br>
- - - -<br>
As the negative consequences of climate change become more severe
and more immediate, I think the ideological element will fade away
(although by then it's likely to be too late, sadly). <br>
</blockquote>
You can read Matthew Hornsey's paper in<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0157-2">
Nature Climate Change</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2018/may/08/its-all-about-vested-interests-untangling-conspiracy-conservatism-and-climate-scepticism">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2018/may/08/its-all-about-vested-interests-untangling-conspiracy-conservatism-and-climate-scepticism</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[Another explanation]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://theconversation.com/the-thinking-error-at-the-root-of-science-denial-96099">The
thinking error at the root of science denial</a></b><br>
Jeremy P. Shapiro<br>
Adjunct Assistant Professor of Psychological Science Case Western
Reserve<br>
Currently, there are three important issues on which there is
scientific consensus but controversy among laypeople: climate
change, biological evolution and childhood vaccination. On all three
issues, prominent members of the Trump administration, including the
president, have lined up against the conclusions of research.<br>
This widespread rejection of scientific findings presents a
perplexing puzzle to those of us who value an evidence-based
approach to knowledge and policy.<br>
Yet many science deniers do cite empirical evidence. The problem is
that they do so in invalid, misleading ways. Psychological research
illuminates these ways.<br>
- - - - <br>
In my view, science deniers misapply the concept of "proof."<br>
Proof exists in mathematics and logic but not in science. Research
builds knowledge in progressive increments. As empirical evidence
accumulates, there are more and more accurate approximations of
ultimate truth but no final end point to the process. Deniers
exploit the distinction between proof and compelling evidence by
categorizing empirically well-supported ideas as "unproven." Such
statements are technically correct but extremely misleading, because
there are no proven ideas in science, and evidence-based ideas are
the best guides for action we have.<br>
<br>
I have observed deniers use a three-step strategy to mislead the
scientifically unsophisticated. First, they cite areas of
uncertainty or controversy, no matter how minor, within the body of
research that invalidates their desired course of action. Second,
they categorize the overall scientific status of that body of
research as uncertain and controversial. Finally, deniers advocate
proceeding as if the research did not exist.<br>
<br>
For example, climate change skeptics jump from the realization that
we do not completely understand all climate-related variables to the
inference that we have no reliable knowledge at all. Similarly, they
give equal weight to the 97 percent of climate scientists who
believe in human-caused global warming and the 3 percent who do not,
even though many of the latter receive support from the fossil fuels
industry.<br>
<br>
This same type of thinking can be seen among creationists. They seem
to misinterpret any limitation or flux in evolutionary theory to
mean that the validity of this body of research is fundamentally in
doubt. For example, the biologist James Shapiro (no relation)
discovered a cellular mechanism of genomic change that Darwin did
not know about. Shapiro views his research as adding to evolutionary
theory, not upending it. Nonetheless, his discovery and others like
it, refracted through the lens of dichotomous thinking, result in
articles with titles like, "Scientists Confirm: Darwinism Is Broken"
by Paul Nelson and David Klinghoffer of the Discovery Institute,
which promotes the theory of "intelligent design." Shapiro insists
that his research provides no support for intelligent design, but
proponents of this pseudoscience repeatedly cite his work as if it
does.<br>
<br>
For his part, Trump engages in dichotomous thinking about the
possibility of a link between childhood vaccinations and autism.
Despite exhaustive research and the consensus of all major medical
organizations that no link exists, Trump has often cited a link
between vaccines and autism and he advocates changing the standard
vaccination protocol to protect against this nonexistent danger.<br>
<br>
There is a vast gulf between perfect knowledge and total ignorance,
and we live most of our lives in this gulf. Informed decision-making
in the real world can never be perfectly informed, but responding to
the inevitable uncertainties by ignoring the best available evidence
is no substitute for the imperfect approach to knowledge called
science.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://theconversation.com/the-thinking-error-at-the-root-of-science-denial-96099">https://theconversation.com/the-thinking-error-at-the-root-of-science-denial-96099</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[classic essay on climate denial from 2012]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-03-17/sociological-explanations-climate-change-denial/">SOCIOLOGICAL
EXPLANATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL</a></b><br>
By Olga Bonfiglio, originally published by Energy Bulletin<br>
March 17, 2012<br>
Three years ago promises by both major political parties to do
something have gone by the wayside while today's<span> </span><a
href="http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2011/11/2012-gop-candidates-demonstrate-dramatic-political-shift-on-climate/"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">Republican presidential candidates reject evidence
that humans are responsible for the warming of the earth</a><br>
The mainstream media routinely report on extreme weather, like this
winter's high temperatures and last summer's droughts, but reporters
and commentators typically veer away from connecting it to climate
change...<br>
- - - -<br>
It turns out that the United States is one of the few countries in
the world still quibbling over climate change, and its influence is
stymieing progress at environmental summits like<span> </span><a
href="http://www.cop17-cmp7durban.com/" target="_blank"
style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent;
color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none; transition: all
0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.25);">Durbin</a>(2011),<span> </span><a
href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cancun-climate-change-conference-2010"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">Cancun</a><span> </span>(2010), and<span> </span><a
href="http://www.erantis.com/events/denmark/copenhagen/climate-conference-2009/index.htm"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">Copenhagen</a><span> </span>(2009).<br>
What's going on?<br>
As you may expect, it's about money, politics, culture and media
bias.<br>
Ron Kramer, a sociologist at Western Michigan University, has been
studying how sociological and cultural factors are preventing
Americans from talking about or acting on climate change. He drew
on the research of<span> </span><a
href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Cohen_%28sociologist%29"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">sociologist Stanley Cohen, professor emeritus at the
London School of Economics</a>,<i style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span> </span></i>who
says that denial<i style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span> </span></i>"refers
to the maintenance of social worlds in which an undesirable
situation (event, condition, phenomenon) is unrecognized, ignored or
made to seem normal."<br>
He cites three categories of denial:<br>
<blockquote>- A<span> </span><b style="box-sizing: border-box;
font-weight: 700;"><i style="box-sizing: border-box;">literal</i></b><span> </span>denial
is: "the assertion that something did not happen or is not true."
<br>
- With an<span> </span><b style="box-sizing: border-box;
font-weight: 700;"><i style="box-sizing: border-box;">interpretive</i></b><span> </span>denial,
the basic facts are not denied, however, "…they are given a
different meaning from what seems apparent to others." People
recognize that something is happening but that it's good for us.<br>
<b style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;"><i
style="box-sizing: border-box;">- Implicatory</i></b><span> </span>denial
"covers the multitude of vocabularies, justifications,
rationalizations, evasions that we use to deal with our awareness
of so many images of unmitigated suffering." Here, "knowledge
itself is not an issue. The genuine challenge is doing the 'right'
thing with this knowledge."<br>
</blockquote>
Through<span> </span><b style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight:
700;">literal<span> </span></b>and<b style="box-sizing:
border-box; font-weight: 700;"><span> </span>interpretive denial</b>,
climate change deniers declare that the earth is not warming even
though 98 percent of our scientists have written thousands of
peer-reviewed papers and reports concluding that climate change is<span> </span><a
href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">real</a><span> </span>and caused by<span> </span><a
href="http://tigger.uic.edu/%7Epdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">human activity</a>.<br>
Actually, deniers are organized by conservative think tanks funded
by the fossil fuel industry that attempt to create doubt about
climate science and block actions that would reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and create clean energy alternatives.<br>
To do this they use conspiracy theories and "fake" experts with no
background in climate science. They insist on<span> </span><i
style="box-sizing: border-box;">absolute</i><span> </span>certainty,
cherry-pick the data and ignore the larger body of evidence or
misrepresent data and promote logical fallacies like "the climate
has changed in the past, therefore current change is natural."<br>
"Creating doubt blocks any action," said Kramer. "This is the<span> </span><a
href="http://www.tobacco.org/resources/history/strategieslb.html"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">same tactic the tobacco industry used</a><span> </span>to
deny that smoking was harmful to people's health. And, some of the
same people are now doing this with climate change."<br>
- - - -<br>
Research shows that conservative white males are more likely to
espouse climate change denial than other groups for two reasons.
They tend to filter out any information that is different from their
already-held worldview because it threatens the identity, status and
esteem they receive by being part of their group, he said.
Sociologists call this "Identity Protective Cognition."<br>
Secondly, conservative white males have a stronger need to justify
the status quo and resist attempts to change it. Sociologists call
this "System Justification."<br>
For example, successful conservative white males stridently defend
the capitalist system because it has worked well for them. For
anyone to imply the system is not functioning is an unfathomable
impossibility akin to blasphemy. [<a
href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-conservative-white-maes-are-more-likely-climate-skeptics"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color:
transparent; color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none;
transition: all 0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0,
0, 0, 0.25);">Climatewire via Scientific American</a>]<br>
"Identity Protective Cognition" should also inform environmental
activists that the information deficit model of activism is not
always a good approach, warned Kramer. Just providing more
information may not change anyone's views given their commitment to
a particular cultural worldview.<br>
In<b style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;"><span> </span>implicatory
denial</b><span> </span>people recognize that something untoward
is happening but they fail to act because they are emotionally
uncomfortable or troubled about it.<br>
For example, there are the people who are aware of climate change
and have some information about it, but take no action, make no
behavioral changes and remain apathetic.<br>
This response occurs when people confront confusing and conflicting
information from political leaders and the media. Consequently,
they have yet another reason for denial-or they believe the problem
can be overcome with technology and they can go on with their
lives. <br>
"At some level people understand that climate change can alter human
civilization, but they feel a sense of helplessness and
powerlessness at the prospect," said Kramer. "Others feel guilty
that they may have caused the problem."<br>
Several cultural factors also thwart any decisive action on climate
change, said Kramer. <br>
Americans have a tendency toward<span> </span><a
href="http://www.alternet.org/story/95109/?page=2" target="_blank"
style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent;
color: rgb(0, 155, 197); text-decoration: none; transition: all
0.15s ease; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.25);">"anti-intellectualism,"</a><span>
</span>so "nerdy" climate scientists are easily suspect. <br>
Our strong sense of "individualism" helps us strive toward our
individual goals, but it likewise keeps us from joining together to
do something about climate change. They ask: "What good does it do
to recycle or drive less when we have such a huge, complex problem
as climate change?"<br>
"American exceptionalism" celebrates the American way of life, which
has given us a vast bounty of wealth and material goods. We want to
continue this life and, in fact, deserve it. Nothing bad will
happen to us.<br>
Finally, "political alienation" keeps us from trusting our political
system to tackle the problem.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;">
"What we ultimately need is international agreement about what to do
about climate change," said Kramer. "Nothing will happen, however,
until the United States commits to doing something."<br>
<font size="-1">More at: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-03-17/sociological-explanations-climate-change-denial/">http://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-03-17/sociological-explanations-climate-change-denial/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[but we don't know when]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/may/09/global-warming-is-melting-antarctic-ice-from-below">Global
warming is melting Antarctic ice from below</a></b><br>
Warming oceans melting Antarctic ice shelves could accelerate sea
level rise<br>
John Abraham<br>
We all know intuitively that in a warmer world there will be less
ice. And, since the North and South Pole regions contain lots of
ice, anyone who wants to see evidence of climate change can look
there.<br>
But beyond this simplistic view, things can get pretty complex.
First, it's important to recognize that the Arctic and the Antarctic
are very different places. In the Arctic, almost all the ice is
floating on water - there is very little land. So, we talk about
'sea ice' in the north, formed from frozen sea water. On the other
hand, Antarctica is a massive land mass that is covered by ice
formed from snowfall (called an 'ice sheet'). There is some floating
ice around the perimeter of the land, but the vast majority of
Antarctic ice is on land.<br>
This difference not only affects how these regions response to
climate change, but it also impacts their importance. We know that
when floating ice melts, the ocean levels will not rise, because the
ice was already floating in the water. But, when land ice melts, the
liquid water flows into the ocean and causes the water levels to
rise. So, at least from a sea-level perspective, land ice is more
important than floating ice.<br>
There are other differences between the north and south. One feature
of the south is that there is a strong current that travels around
Antarctica and partially shields it from waters elsewhere in the
ocean. The Nasa Jet Propulsion Laboratory provides a good summary of
some of the differences between the poles.<br>
With global warming, both of the poles are warming quite quickly,
and this warming is causing ice to melt in both regions. When we
think of ice melting, we may think of it melting from above, as the
ice is heated from the air, from sunlight, or from infrared energy
from the atmosphere. But in truth, a lot of the melting comes from
below. For instance, in the Antarctic, the ice shelves extend from
the land out over the water. The bottom of the ice shelf is exposed
to the ocean. If the ocean warms up, it can melt the underside of
the shelf and cause it to thin or break off into the ocean.<br>
A new study, recently published in Science Advances, looked at these
issues. One of the goals of this study was to better understand
whether and how the waters underneath the shelf are changing. They
had to deal with the buoyancy of the waters. We know that the
saltier and colder water is, the denser it is. <br>
Around Antarctica, water at the ocean surface cools down and becomes
saltier. These combined effects make the surface waters sink down to
the sea floor. But as ice melt increases, fresh water flows into the
ocean and interrupts this buoyancy effect. This "freshening" of the
water can slow down or shut down the vertical mixing of the ocean.
When this happens, the cold waters at the surface cannot sink. The
deeper waters retain their heat and melt the ice from below.<br>
The study incorporated measurements of both temperature and salinity
(saltiness) at three locations near the Dalton Iceberg Tongue on the
Sabrina Coast in East Antarctica. The measurements covered
approximately an entire year and gave direct evidence of seasonal
variations to the buoyancy of the waters. The researchers showed
that a really important component to water-flow patterns were
'polynyas.' These are regions of open water that are surrounded by
ice, typically by land ice on one side and sea ice on the other
side.<br>
- - <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/may/09/global-warming-is-melting-antarctic-ice-from-below#img-2">photo:</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/may/09/global-warming-is-melting-antarctic-ice-from-below#img-2">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/may/09/global-warming-is-melting-antarctic-ice-from-below#img-2</a><br>
When waters from the polynya are cold and salty, the waters sink
downwards and form a cold curtain around the ice shelf. However,
when the waters are not salty (because fresh water is flowing into
the polynya), this protective curtain is disrupted and warm waters
can intrude from outside, leading to more ice melt.<br>
Based on this study, we may see increased ice loss in the future -
sort of a feedback loop. That concerns us because it will mean more
sea level rise (which is already accelerating), and more damage to
coastal communities. I asked the lead author, Alesandro Silvano
about this work:<br>
We found that freshwater from melting ice shelves is already enough
to stop formation of cold and salty waters in some locations around
Antarctica. This process causes warming and freshening of Antarctic
waters. Ocean warming increases melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet,
causing sea level to rise. Freshening of Antarctic waters weakens
the currents that trap heat and carbon dioxide in the ocean,
affecting the global climate. In this way local changes in
Antarctica can have global implications. Multiple sources of
evidence exist now to show that these changes are happening.
However, what will happen in Antarctica in the next decades and
centuries remains unclear and needs to be understood.<br>
This is just another reason to take scientists seriously and act to
slow down climate change before it is too late.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/may/09/global-warming-is-melting-antarctic-ice-from-below">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/may/09/global-warming-is-melting-antarctic-ice-from-below</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4647599">This
Day in Climate History - May 10, 2005</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
May 10, 2005: The US Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia rules that the White House does not have to disclose
information regarding the infamous 2001 Cheney Energy Task Force.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/10/politics/10cnd-cheney.html?_r=0">http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/10/politics/10cnd-cheney.html?_r=0</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4647599">http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4647599</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2005/05/11/court_backs_cheney_on_energy_meetings/">http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2005/05/11/court_backs_cheney_on_energy_meetings/</a></font><br>
<br>
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