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<font size="+1"><i>June 9, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[411 ppm]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.co2.earth/">Earth's CO2 Home Page</a></b><br>
May 2018<br>
Atmospheric CO2 - 411.31 parts per million (ppm)<br>
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (Scripps UCSD)<br>
Preliminary data released June 4, 2018<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.co2.earth/">https://www.co2.earth/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Kerry speaks up] <br>
<b><a
href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/06/07/john-kerry-accuses-president-trump-misleading-americans-paris-climate-accord/Dabauh88XVRZ5ZlcTyvTDP/story.html">John
Kerry accuses Trump of 'misleading' Americans on Paris climate
accord</a></b><br>
The Boston Globe<br>
John Kerry accuses Trump of 'misleading' Americans on Paris climate
accord ... Kerry acknowledged that the Paris accord alone will not
solve the problem of global warming. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/06/07/john-kerry-accuses-president-trump-misleading-americans-paris-climate-accord/Dabauh88XVRZ5ZlcTyvTDP/story.html">https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/06/07/john-kerry-accuses-president-trump-misleading-americans-paris-climate-accord/Dabauh88XVRZ5ZlcTyvTDP/story.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[green cash]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.thestreet.com/politics/ikea-to-sell-only-renewable-and-recycled-products-to-support-paris-climate-goal-14615309">IKEA
to Sell Only Renewable and Recycled Products to Support Paris
Climate Goal</a></b><br>
The apartments of millennials everywhere are about to become a lot
more sustainable.<br>
Ikea announced Thursday that all of its products will be made from
renewable and recycled materials by 2030 in an effort to comply with
science-based targets to help limit global warming to the level
prescribed in the Paris Climate Accord.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.thestreet.com/politics/ikea-to-sell-only-renewable-and-recycled-products-to-support-paris-climate-goal-14615309">https://www.thestreet.com/politics/ikea-to-sell-only-renewable-and-recycled-products-to-support-paris-climate-goal-14615309</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[holding on to coal]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/6/17427030/coal-plants-map-china-india-us-eu">The
story of coal in the 21st century, in one amazing map</a></b><br>
See every coal plant in the world from 2000 on.<br>
By David Roberts - Jun 7, 2018<br>
I love data journalism and I love a good map, and the folks at
Carbon Brief have just released a<span> </span><a
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants"
style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;
vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit
!important; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin:
0px; padding: 0px; background-color: transparent !important;
color: rgb(51, 51, 51); transition: color 0.1s, background-color
0.1s, fill 0.1s; outline: dotted thin; border-bottom: 1px solid
transparent; font-weight: 600;">doozy of a visual</a><span> </span>that
combines both. Using data from<span> </span><a
href="http://coalswarm.org/" style="box-sizing: border-box;
text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit; font-family:
inherit; font-size: inherit !important; font-style: inherit;
line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-color:
transparent !important; color: rgb(79, 113, 119); transition:
color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px
solid transparent; font-weight: 600;">CoalSwarm</a>’s<span> </span><a
href="https://endcoal.org/global-coal-plant-tracker/"
style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: inherit;
vertical-align: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit
!important; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin:
0px; padding: 0px; background-color: transparent !important;
color: rgb(79, 113, 119); transition: color 0.1s, background-color
0.1s, fill 0.1s; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent;
font-weight: 600;">Global Coal Plant Tracker</a>, it shows the
location of every coal plant in the world - planned, under
construction, operating, and retiring - from 2000 up through the
present.<br>
It’s endlessly fascinating. You can search by zip code, rotate, even
zoom in super close and get a satellite view. Here’s the Yangtze
Delta around Shanghai, the world’s heaviest concentration of coal
capacity. All the yellow blobs are coal plants, their diameter
relative to the size. <br>
There’s about 97 gigawatts of coal capacity in a 15.5-square-mile
area here. If the Yangtze Delta were its own country, it would have
the fourth most coal capacity in the world, after China, the US, and
India. Yikes...<br>
- - - -<br>
A lot of what’s going on is old coal plants, near the end of their
life span, finally closing. While that’s good news, it’s also the
easiest part of the job, coal-wise. Closing the newer ones, built in
the 2000s, will be a steeper political climb.<br>
But it must happen for any chance of hitting the common
international target of no more than 2 degrees Celsius warming (much
less the more challenging stretch goal of 1.5 degrees). All the
purple blobs must disappear in short order and gray blobs must begin
eating the globe. The US and EU need to be coal-free by 2030 and
China and India a decade or so after. Under those circumstances,
lots of coal plants are going to be retired early, i.e., "stranded."<br>
While another 200 GW of coal capacity is currently being built and
450 GW more are planned (a disaster for the 2-degree target),
there’s a decent chance much less of that will produce power than
currently expected.<br>
It is possible, if you squint just right, to see a global inflection
point around 2014. Coal’s meteoric rise through the 2000s finally
ran its course and renewables took hold.<br>
Just maybe, on the other side of that inflection point, renewable
energy will grow and coal will fall, as fast as coal once rose in
the 2000s. We’d better hope so.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/6/17427030/coal-plants-map-china-india-us-eu">https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/6/17427030/coal-plants-map-china-india-us-eu</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Upcoming, important world events]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/08/9-key-moments-road-cop24-climate-talks/">10
key moments on the road to the Cop24 climate talks</a></b><br>
Published on 08/06/2018, 12:34am<br>
Leaders meeting at the G7 this weekend kick off six months of
diplomatic moments that will be decisive in shaping the future of
the Paris Agreement<br>
By Soila Apparicio<br>
2018 is the most important year of climate talks since the Paris
deal was struck. And the first five months have not gone too well.<br>
Delivering the tools needed to put the Paris Agreement into effect
will be the major challenge when countries meet at Cop24 in Poland
this December. But talks stalled in May, leaving a mass of political
and technical discussion to pack into the next six months.<br>
The UN climate conference, which will be held from 3-14 December in
the coal-mining town of Katowice, is the deadline to deliver an
as-of-yet unwritten set of rules that will govern the Paris accord.
<br>
It matters because a weak set of rules will mean countries will end
up doing less to fight climate change.<br>
The last half of 2018 is littered with meetings that could build or
break momentum into those talks. Here are the moments to keep an eye
on:<br>
<br>
<b>G7 Summit, Quebec, 8-9 June</b><br>
Given the US has turned away from its commitment to climate action,
big statements aren’t expected from the G7...<br>
"The G7 is a very influential group that can make a huge
contribution to stepping up climate action and ensuring that 2018
yields a successful outcome for all," said Espinosa.<br>
<br>
<b>Petersberg Climate Dialogue IX, Berlin, 18-19 June</b><b><br>
</b>The annual Petersberg Climate Dialogue, an informal
international conference, has offered the opportunity for
governments to exchange their experiences in climate policy since
2010...<br>
This year the dialogue will focus on the impacts of delaying
ambitious action, ensuring a just transition for all, and climate
finance...<br>
Negotiators will also look at how to complete the Paris Agreement
work programme, which is colloquially known as the rulebook. <br>
<br>
<b>Second Ministerial on Climate Action (Moca), Brussels, 20-21 June</b><br>
From Berlin, some ministers will jump straight into more talks on
climate action. Just over a year after Donald Trump announced the US
would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the Ministerial on Climate
Action (Moca) between climate chiefs from China, the European Union,
and Canada will hold its second meeting...<br>
<br>
<b>UNFCCC Climate Change Conference, Bangkok, 4-9 September</b><br>
UNFCCC will hold extra climate talks in Bangkok in September. The
extra negotiation session has been charged with producing an outline
for an agreement to be struck in Katowice. Diplomats need a
‘negotiating text’, which can serve as a basis for talks... <br>
<br>
<b>Rise for Climate marches, International, 8 September</b><br>
Ahead of the Global Climate Action Summit, tens of thousands of
people around the globe plan to take part in marches as part of the
Rise for Climate campaign, which aim to demonstrate grassroots
climate leadership.<br>
A continental day of action will take place in Australia, local
renewable energy summits across Africa, a major march in Portugal
and virtual marches in East Asia, are just some of the hundreds of
events that are planned.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Global Climate Action Summit, California, 12-14 September</b><br>
Fronted by California governor Jerry Brown, the climate summit
signifies the determination by US officials and non-state actors to
show they can and will work to prevent climate change, despite the
country’s intention to leave the Paris climate agreement.<br>
California will convene representatives from subnational
governments, businesses, investors and civil society. The summit
organisers hope it will be a "launchpad for deeper worldwide
commitments" that will help countries realise the agreement and help
build momentum for a successful outcome at Cop24.<br>
<br>
<b>Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM), Bonn, 18-21 September </b><br>
In 2016 in Warsaw, the UNFCCC established the Warsaw International
Mechanism to look at what more the international community can do to
help developing countries deal with the physical and financial
impacts of climate change.<br>
The upcoming meeting will focus on what action and support is needed
by less economically developed countries, enhancing knowledge and
strengthening dialogue. The mechanism allows for policy to be
discussed and for the negative impacts of climate change to be
addressed by government and non-government actors if global efforts
to adapt to those impacts are not sufficient.<br>
<br>
<b>UN General Assembly and Climate Week, New York, 18-30 September</b><br>
World leaders meet in New York at the UN General Assembly, running
parallel to Climate Week in the same city... <br>
Climate Week NYC, which is organised by international non-profit The
Climate Group, will also bring together international leaders from
business, government, and civil society to demonstrate the need to
keep up the momentum for global climate action...secretary general
António Guterres will host a climate summit for world leaders to
review commitments made under the Paris Agreement.<br>
<br>
<b>IPCC 1.5C report launch, Incheon, 8 October</b><br>
In October, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) will officially present its special report on global warming.<br>
The UN body for assessing the science related to climate change was
invited by the UNFCCC to write a special report on the impacts of
global warming of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels...<br>
<blockquote>Climate Home News obtained a copy of the first draft
summary for policymakers earlier this year. Findings from the
draft indicate that if the global community misses the 1.5C
warming target, hunger, migration and conflict will worsen. In
short, we don’t have much time.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>G20 Summit, Buenos Aires, 30 November - 1 December</b><br>
The G20 economies account for around 80% of world trade, 82% of
energy-related CO2 emissions, two-thirds of the global population
and approximately half of the world land area...<br>
Its timing brings world leaders together just two days before the
conference in Katowice begins.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/08/9-key-moments-road-cop24-climate-talks/">http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/08/9-key-moments-road-cop24-climate-talks/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Deep thinker, Dave Roberts]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/8/17437104/climate-change-global-warming-models-risks">We
are almost certainly underestimating the economic risks of
climate change</a></b><br>
The models that inform climate policymaking are fatally flawed.<br>
By David Roberts Jun 8, 2018<br>
One of the more vexing aspects of climate change politics and policy
is the longstanding gap between the models that project the physical
effects of global warming and those that project the economic
impacts. In a nutshell, even as the former deliver worse and worse
news, especially about a temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius or
more, the latter remain placid. <br>
The famous <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DICE_model">DICE
model</a> created by Yale’s William Nordhaus shows that a 6-degree
rise in global average temperature - which the physical sciences
characterize as an <a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/apr/23/scienceandnature.climatechange">unlivable
hellscape</a> - would only dent global GDP by 10 percent.<br>
Projections of modest economic impacts from even the most severe
climate change affect climate politics in a number of ways. For one
thing, they inform policy goals like those President Obama offered
in Paris, restraining their ambition. For another, they fuel the
arguments of "lukewarmers," those who say that the climate is
warming but it’s not that big a problem. (Lukewarmism is the public
stance of <a
href="https://mashable.com/2017/01/19/trump-cabinet-picks-climate-denial/#rE4lVX_JyOq9">most
Trump Cabinet members</a>.)<br>
Climate hawks have long had the strong instinct that it’s the
economic models, not the physical-science models, that are missing
something - that the current expert consensus about climate economic
damages is far too sanguine - but they often lack the vocabulary to
do any more than insist.<br>
- - - -<b><br>
</b><b>The IPCC is working on its next big report and still using
models that underestimate economic damages</b><br>
The <a
href="https://academic.oup.com/reep/advance-article/doi/10.1093/reep/rey005/5025082">second
paper</a>, in <em>Review of Environmental Economics and Policy</em>,
makes the same point - commonly used models are underestimating the
economic impacts of climate change - in a slightly different way, to
a different audience.<br>
The audience in this case is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), which is preparing to pull together its Sixth
Assessment Report, to be released over 2021 and 2022. IPCC
assessment reports are hugely influential in global policymaking.<br>
- - - -<br>
<b>Model talk is kind of boring, but models underlie everything</b><br>
There’s a lot of technical mumbo-jumbo flying around in these
conversations about models, so it’s important to step back and
recall the point of all this.<br>
Policymakers want to know how much climate change will hurt the
economy. They want to know how much policies to fight climate change
will cost. Models provide them with answers. Right now, models are
(inaccurately) telling them that damage costs will be low and policy
costs will be high. <br>
Political mobilization on climate change is going to fight a
headwind as long as policymakers are getting those answers from
models.<br>
We need models that negatively weigh uncertainty, properly account
for tipping points, incorporate more robust and current technology
cost data, better differentiate sectors outside electricity,
rigorously price energy efficiency, and include the social and
health benefits of decarbonization.<br>
One, such models would be more accurate, better at their task of
informing policymakers. And two, they would justify far more policy
and investment to fight climate change than has been seen to date in
the US or any other major economy. We shouldn’t let the blind spots
and shortcomings of current models undermine political ambition.<br>
Save the models, save the world.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/8/17437104/climate-change-global-warming-models-risks">https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/8/17437104/climate-change-global-warming-models-risks</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[from 2015]<br>
<b><a
href="https://grist.org/climate-energy/how-much-is-climate-change-going-to-cost-us/">How
much is climate change going to cost us?</a></b><br>
By David Roberts - on Jan 15, 2015<br>
How much is climate change going to cost us? How much is it worth to
avoid it? How do we figure that out?<br>
Well, first we develop models in the physical sciences that show how
biophysical systems will react to changing levels of atmospheric
gases. Then we feed that data into economic models, usually
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), to project the economic cost of
a given change in temperature....<br>
- - - - <br>
The researchers did model runs incorporating both theories. Long
story short, the temperature theory still implies aggressive,
near-term mitigation. The resilience theory implies lots of
mitigation up front, then easing off a little as poor countries get
richer, then going aggressive again. (The way DICE treats mitigation
is unrealistic in several ways, but let’s not get off course.)<br>
But the remarkable fact, to me, is that we just don’t know which
theory is true. We don’t know what mix of lower carbon and higher
GDP produces optimal welfare, even directionally, much less with any
precision. This makes it virtually impossible to determine how best
to address, say, energy access. On this, as on so much
climate-related, we are groping in the dark.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://grist.org/climate-energy/how-much-is-climate-change-going-to-cost-us/">https://grist.org/climate-energy/how-much-is-climate-change-going-to-cost-us/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Global warming medieval history] <br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://phys.org/news/2018-06-professor-tracks-medieval-climate.html">Professor
tracks medieval winds of (climate) change</a></b><br>
Phys.Org<br>
The Middle Ages - spanning the 5th to 13th centuries - witnessed the
rise of the Catholic Church, the spread of Islam and social and
political transformation that laid the foundation for the
Renaissance and modern Western civilization.<br>
While greed, pride and curiosity brought about some of that change,
Melitta Adamson argues food and climate change were the main
drivers.<br>
"Climate is rarely mentioned as a major factor in the food choices
people made and the social and political upheaval that could result
from climate change," Adamson said.<br>
The Modern Languages and Literatures professor and food historian is
among the first scholars in her field to document how climate
change, with its critical impact on food production, shaped the
Middle Ages (or Medieval Period) through famine, disease and war.<br>
Adamson's paper, "Climate Change and the Medieval Diet," is a timely
reminder to governments, policy-makers and the general public that
history may very well repeat itself and that the past holds lessons
this generation can tackle in the future.<br>
Scientists only recently have charted medieval weather data by
studying ice cores, tree rings, pollen remains and ocean sediments.
A warm period lasting from around AD 800 to 1300 was bookended by
two cold stretches: one from the 6th to the 7th centuries, the other
from the late 13th to the mid-19th centuries.<br>
Adamson combined this data with her research in medieval food
practices she found in contemporary writings, including medieval
cookbook manuscripts, medical literature, household accounts, church
records of wine production and grape harvests, and narrative texts
describing people's food habits...<br>
- - - -<br>
Her book, Food in the Middle Ages, explored how the common
foodstuffs available, how and what they cooked, ate, and drank, what
the regional cuisines were like, how the different classes
entertained and celebrated, and what restrictions they followed for
health and faith reasons. Drawing on a variety of period sources -
literature, account books, cookbooks, religious texts, archaeology,
and art - it provided fascinating information, such as on imitation
food, kitchen humor, and medical ideas. Many period recipes and
quotations flesh out the narrative...<br>
Showed how food was a status symbol then, and sumptuary laws defined
what a person of a certain class could eat - the ingredients and
preparation of a dish and how it was eaten depended on a person's
status, and most information is available on the upper crust rather
than the masses. Equalizing factors might have been religious
strictures and such diseases as the bubonic plague, all of which are
detailed here.<br>
<br>
<b>Adamson's latest paper brings climate change into the discussion.</b><br>
The first cold period (Late Antique Little Ice Age) from the 6th to
the 7th centuries caused massive famines in Europe and Asia. With
malnourishment making people more vulnerable to disease, epidemics
left millions dead. During this time, Slavic peoples migrated to the
eastern part of Europe, and people of central Asia to China, in
search of pastureland, Adamson noted.<br>
Meanwhile, a wetter climate in the Arabian Peninsula meant more
vegetation and a better diet for humans and animals. This
contributed to the rapid expansion of the Arab Empire.<br>
In AD 711, Arabs landed in Spain. They brought with them Greek
classics, and their knowledge of science and medicine, which would
become critical in developing Renaissance Europe in the later
centuries....<br>
Read more at:<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2018-06-professor-tracks-medieval-climate.html">https://phys.org/news/2018-06-professor-tracks-medieval-climate.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-07-09/news/36799342_1_climate-change-epa-deputy-associate-administrator-congressional-testimony">This
Day in Climate History - June 9, 2008</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
June 9, 2008: - Deputy EPA administrator Jason Burnett resigns; he
later claims that he did so after repeated interference from the
White House on issues related to carbon pollution.<br>
Members of Vice President Cheney's staff censored congressional
testimony by a top federal official about health threats posed by
global warming, a former Environmental Protection Agency official
said yesterday.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.sfgate.com/green/article/Ex-EPA-aide-tells-of-White-House-censorship-3205205.php">https://www.sfgate.com/green/article/Ex-EPA-aide-tells-of-White-House-censorship-3205205.php</a>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-07-09/news/36799342_1_climate-change-epa-deputy-associate-administrator-congressional-testimony">http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-07-09/news/36799342_1_climate-change-epa-deputy-associate-administrator-congressional-testimony</a>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/IPjyauzrrv0">http://youtu.be/IPjyauzrrv0</a> <br>
<br>
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