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<font size="+1"><i>June 14, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[Wedding photo for the Anthropocene]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/couple-takes-wedding-photos-amid-wildfire-blazing-in-colorado/">Couple
takes wedding photos amid wildfire blazing in Colorado</a></b><br>
The worsening conditions, however, did not prevent McLaughlin and
Kramer from celebrating their wedding. <br>
The couple quickly found a backup plan. At the last minute, they
moved their wedding from their original venue, which was closed, and
held it in a home instead. The wildfire was visible from the area,
near route 250, but McLaughlin and Kramer made the most of it.<br>
They took their wedding photos outside, with the blazing fire in the
background sending plumes of bright orange smoke into the sky. <br>
The unconventional wedding portraits captured nature's wrath - and
beauty. Their photographer, Alexi Hubbell, shot the groom dipping
the bride, the couple kissing and holding hands against the backdrop
of the flames.<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/couple-takes-wedding-photos-amid-wildfire-blazing-in-colorado/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/couple-takes-wedding-photos-amid-wildfire-blazing-in-colorado/</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.facebook.com/alexihubbellphotography/photos/a.632817190078850.1073741835.630955903598312/2200639176629969/?type=3&theater">https://www.facebook.com/alexihubbellphotography/photos/a.632817190078850.1073741835.630955903598312/2200639176629969/?type=3&theater</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[No coal bailout]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12062018/ferc-no-power-grid-national-security-emergency-trump-perry-coal-subsidy-energy-regulators-congress">No
Power Grid Emergency to Justify Coal Bailout, Federal Regulators
Say</a></b><br>
The top regulators of the nation's power grid told Congress on
Tuesday that they see no immediate national security emergency to
justify propping up coal and nuclear power plants with a government
order, as the Trump administration is considering.<br>
All five members of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC,
weighed in at a hearing of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee on a debate that has been roiling the industry and its
regulators for months. It was the first time in many years that the
whole commission had appeared before the committee together.<br>
Even though most of them were appointed by President Donald Trump,
they seemed ambivalent or even hostile to his repeated attempts,
along with Energy Secretary Rick Perry, to require grid operators to
buy power from uneconomical coal and nuclear power plants.<br>
- - - -<br>
Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, the committee's
chairwoman, also said she was skeptical.<br>
"As with many controversies, with so much at stake in such a heavily
regulated industry such as energy, the various interests are locked
in," she noted. "This is battle, this is mortal conflict for some."<br>
Murkowski is closely aligned with the oil and gas industry. Its
lobbying group, the American Petroleum Institute, has joined
renewable energy advocates to strongly oppose the administration's
efforts on behalf of coal and nuclear.<br>
<b>'FERC Does Not Pick Winners and Losers'</b><br>
The committee's ranking Democrat, Maria Cantwell of Washington, said
she found the idea of intervening in markets "mind-boggling."<br>
The commissioners, in more measured words, seemed to agree with her.<br>
"FERC does not pick winners and losers in the market," Powelson
said. "Instead we create an environment where the market can pick
the winners and losers." He called it a "moral hazard" to do
otherwise.<br>
"We need to be wary of people using the situation or a potential
situation as a way to achieve market changes that they haven't been
able to achieve otherwise," Glick said.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12062018/ferc-no-power-grid-national-security-emergency-trump-perry-coal-subsidy-energy-regulators-congress">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12062018/ferc-no-power-grid-national-security-emergency-trump-perry-coal-subsidy-energy-regulators-congress</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Duty to govern]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/06/12/climate-security-and-presidential-constitutional-responsibility/">Climate
Security and Presidential Constitutional Responsibility</a></b><br>
SouthPorticoBy Bishop Garrison, Policy Fellow<br>
In my recent essay for the UC Hastings Constitutional Law Quarterly,
as well as a follow-on piece for Inkstick Media, I discussed why
under the constitution the president has a responsibility to
confront climate change. Climate change is having a true effect on
the world, reshaping how we live and operate. Decades ago, the
national security community identified climate change as a threat to
our safety and operations. Recently, the Department of Defense
reaffirmed its belief in this threat. If national security experts
have identified this issue over years of study and debate, then the
President of the United States has an affirmative duty under the
constitution to protect against it. This analysis is taking from my
essay.<br>
<b>Commander in Chief Clause and the Take Care Clause</b><br>
The national security apparatus of this country has long held the
view that climate change and its effect on the environment is a
threat to military operations and national security. It follows,
then, that the president, from a legal and apolitical position, has
an established constitutional duty under Article II, Section 2, and
Article II, Section 3 - the Commander in Chief Clause and Take Care
Clause respectfully - to ensure that policies are in place and laws
are followed in combating climate change and ensuring American
climate security. The president has a constitutional obligation to
Congress see that any law regarding climate change is properly
enforced within the range of his or her power.<br>
<b>The Constitutional Role of Congressional Oversight</b><br>
Congress has the constitutional duty of oversight to ensure that the
president upholds his or her obligations. The Tax and Spending
Clause and the Appropriation Clause ensure that Congress has the
power to oversee the lawful duties of the executive and its
representatives. Through the Necessary and Proper Clause, Congress
has the sole power to make laws and see to their proper execution.<br>
Furthermore, the Supremacy Clause requires that the president adhere
to the terms provided by any officially signed and ratified treaty
that has been implemented domestically by federal legislation. There
may be a colorable argument that treaties that have been signed
require the president to continue to act in good faith by doing all
he or she can to have the Senate pass a resolution to ratify the
treaty and have Congress pass implementing legislation. Failure to
do so violates the spirit of the president's authority under the
Supremacy Clause, the spirit of the treaty, and is likely to hurt
American foreign relations and the country's prominence in the
international community. Both factors affect the nation's interests
abroad as relationships are key to economic interests in other
countries as well as the assets necessary to achieve future
outcomes. Overall, these constitutional powers are designed to
ensure that the president adheres to his or her own responsibilities
while acting within the limits of the office's powers. It follows,
then, that given the importance associated with the destructive
nature of climate change, Congress should do all it can to ensure
the president confronts the danger.<br>
Climate change is very real and threatens our safety, our interests
and those of our allies abroad. It is paramount that the president
and his duly appointed representatives address this threat
immediately before additional permanent damage is done. It is not
simply an obligation or a novel policy perspective, but the legal
responsibility of the chief executive of this country.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/06/12/climate-security-and-presidential-constitutional-responsibility/">https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/06/12/climate-security-and-presidential-constitutional-responsibility/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[9 page document - fundamentals]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Using-Climate-Data-4.25.2018.pdf">Using
Climate Data</a></b><br>
<b>A primer to inform the use of climate data in financial
institutions, businesses and governments.</b><br>
- Climate models are simulations of the Earth's future conditions.
Climate projections are<br>
based on a compilation of many models and are publicly available.<br>
- Regional climate models and statistical downscaling improve the
resolution of data produced<br>
by global climate models and are thus valuable options when
projections are only<br>
needed for one location or several in the same region.<br>
- Climate models can be used to project future trends in temperature
and precipitation, but<br>
cannot project discrete storms or local flooding from sea level
rise, which require additional<br>
data.<br>
- Different time horizons of climate projections have different
strengths and limitations so it<br>
is important to select the data product best suited to a specific
project's goal.<br>
- There are several drivers of uncertainty in climate models and
strategies to hedge this uncertainty<br>
can help users correctly interpret and use climate projections.<br>
KEY TAKEAWAYS<br>
Image Source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC, from nca2014globalchange.gov<br>
Four Twenty Seven, April 2018<br>
Using Climate Data<br>
INTRODUCTION CLIMATE MODELS<br>
Financial institutions, corporations, and governments are
increasingly striving to identify and respond to risks<br>
driven by physical climate impacts. Understanding the risks posed by
climate change for facilities or infrastructure<br>
assets starts with conducting a risk assessment, which requires an
understanding of the physical impacts<br>
of climate change. However, climate data in its raw form is
difficult to integrate into enterprise risk management,<br>
financial risk modelling processes, and capital planning. This
primer provides a brief introduction to climate models<br>
and data from a business or government perspective<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Using-Climate-Data-4.25.2018.pdf">http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Using-Climate-Data-4.25.2018.pdf</a></font><br>
- - - - <br>
[Click on the Map to get local adaptation plans]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/index.html">State
and Local Adaptation Plans</a></b><br>
States and communities around the country have begun to prepare for
the climate changes that are already underway. This planning process
typically results in a document called an adaptation plan.<br>
.. map that highlights the status of state adaptation efforts. Click
on a state to view a summary of its progress to date and to access
its full profile page. State profile pages include a detailed
breakdown of each state's adaptation work and links to local
adaptation plans and resources. Please move the map to view Alaska
and Hawaii.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/index.html">http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/index.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Climagration]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://physicsworld.com/a/universal-migration-predicts-human-movements-under-climate-change/">Universal
migration predicts human movements under climate change</a></b><br>
12 Jun 2018<br>
Climate change is expected to displace millions of people through
impacts like sea level rise, crop failures, and more frequent
extreme weather. Yet scientists still cannot predict where these
expected climate-induced migrants are likely to go in the coming
decades.<br>
A new study, published today in<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fiopscience.iop.org%2Farticle%2F10.1088%2F1748-9326%2Faac4d4&data=02%7C01%7Csimon.davies%40iop.org%7Ca7e6cf37b682499b68e908d5cd2f9e0e%7Cf9ee42e6bad04e639115f704f9ccceed%7C0%7C0%7C636640526755560929&sdata=ibFq1GHdoB0BWqRHQAtTTCcfGSb%2FAdCvNwJSSIfAAP0%3D&reserved=0">
Environmental Research Letters</a>, seeks to address this need by
incorporating climate impacts into a universal model of human
mobility.<br>
To demonstrate the efficacy of the new approach, the study focused
on the case of sea level rise (SLR) and human migration in
Bangladesh, where the authors estimate that more than two million
Bangladeshis may be displaced from their homes by 2100 because of
rising sea levels alone.<br>
The study, led by Columbia University, New York, used a
probabilistic model combined with population, geographic, and
climatic data to predict the sources, destinations, and flux of
potential migrants caused by sea level rise.<br>
Lead author Dr Kyle Davis, from Columbia University, explained:
"More than 40 per cent of Bangladesh's population is especially
vulnerable to future sea level rise, as they live in low-lying areas
that are often exposed to extreme natural events.<br>
"However, SLR is a very different type of migration driver from
short-lived natural hazards, in that it will make certain areas
permanently uninhabitable."<br>
The team's results using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
scenarios showed that mean SLR will cause population displacements
in 33 per cent of Bangladesh's districts, and 53 per cent under more
intensive conditions. By mid-century, they estimated nearly 900,000
people are likely to migrate because of direct inundation from mean
SLR alone.<br>
Under the most extreme scenario, of up to 2 metre mean SLR, the
number of migrants driven by direct inundation could rise to as many
as 2.1 million people by the year 2100. For all RCP scenarios, five
districts - Barisal, Chandpur, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, and
Shariatpur - are the source for 59 per cent of all migrants.<br>
Their analysis considered mean SLR without normal high tides, so the
results - both in terms of inundated area and displaced population -
are conservative.<br>
The researchers also estimated the extra jobs, housing and food
needed to accommodate these migrants at their destinations. They
found that to cope with the numbers likely to be displaced by 2050,
600,000 additional jobs, 200,000 residences and 784 billion food
calories will be needed.<br>
These results have clear implications for the places that are likely
to receive incoming migrants.<br>
Davis said: "SLR migrants are unlikely to search far for an
attractive place to move to, and the destination will generally be a
trade-off between employment opportunities, its distance from the
migrants' origin, and how vulnerable it is to SLR itself.<br>
"We found that the city of Dhaka was consistently favoured, coming
out as the top destination in all scenarios. This means the city
will need to prepare for the largest number of migrants, which may
compound the area's already rapid urban growth."<br>
The study also identified other risks from SLR, most notably on
livelihoods and food security.<br>
- - - - -<br>
Davis explained: "Inundation by the sea, and the out-migration it
causes, will have significant effects on agriculture and
aquaculture. For instance, 1000 km2 of Bangladesh's cultivated land
could be underwater by the end of the century, with an even larger
area made unusable by saltwater intrusion. Given that 48 per cent of
the labour force works in agriculture, the impact of this would be
keenly felt in terms of jobs and food security.<br>
"Similarly, a great deal of the country's coastal aquaculture is
vulnerable to climate change impacts, and this will probably have
important nutritional and economic consequences, given that 58 per
cent of animal protein in the Bangladeshi diet comes from seafood,
and the country is the world's fifth largest aquaculture producer.<br>
"Ultimately, we hope that the modelling tool we have developed can
be used by researchers and planners to accurately predict the
relocation of climate-induced migrants, and to enable the
development of political and economic strategies to face the
challenge."<br>
<font size="-1"><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://physicsworld.com/a/universal-migration-predicts-human-movements-under-climate-change/">https://physicsworld.com/a/universal-migration-predicts-human-movements-under-climate-change/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[clips from NASA news release]<br>
June 13, 2018 RELEASE 18-053<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/index.html">Ramp-Up in
Antarctic Ice Loss Speeds Sea Level Rise</a></b><br>
Ice losses from Antarctica have tripled since 2012, increasing
global sea levels by 0.12 inch (3 millimeters) in that timeframe
alone, according to a major new international climate assessment
funded by NASA and ESA (European Space Agency).<br>
According to the study, ice losses from Antarctica are causing sea
levels to rise faster today than at any time in the past 25 years.
Results of the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise
(IMBIE) were published Wednesday in the journal Nature.<br>
"This is the most robust study of the ice mass balance of Antarctica
to date," said assessment team co-lead Erik Ivins at NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). "It covers a longer period than our
2012 IMBIE study, has a larger pool of participants, and
incorporates refinements in our observing capability and an improved
ability to assess uncertainties."...<br>
-- - -<br>
At the northern tip of the continent, ice-shelf collapse at the
Antarctic Peninsula has driven an increase of 27.6 billion tons (25
billion metric tons) in ice loss per year since the early 2000s.
Meanwhile, the team found the East Antarctic ice sheet has remained
relatively balanced during the past 25 years, gaining an average of
5.5 billion tons (5 billion metric tons) of ice per year.<br>
Antarctica's potential contribution to global sea level rise from
its land-held ice is almost 7.5 times greater than all other sources
of land-held ice in the world combined. The continent stores enough
frozen water to raise global sea levels by 190 feet (58 meters), if
it were to melt entirely. Knowing how much ice it's losing is key to
understanding the impacts of climate change now and its pace in the
future.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/index.html">https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/index.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[more effort needed to eat your vegetables]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180611152745.htm">Predicted
environmental changes could significantly reduce global
production of vegetables</a></b><br>
Date: June 11, 2018<br>
Source: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine<br>
Summary:<br>
The global production of vegetables and legumes, which are an
important part of healthy diets, could be significantly reduced
through predicted future changes to the environment, according to
new research.<br>
The study, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine (LSHTM), is the first systematically to examine the extent
to which projected changes such as increases in temperature and
reduced water availability could affect the production and
nutritional quality of common crops such as tomatoes, leafy
vegetables and pulses.<br>
If no action is taken to reduce the negative impacts on agricultural
yields, the researchers estimate that the environmental changes
predicted to occur by mid- to end-century in water availability and
ozone concentrations would reduce average yields of vegetables and
legumes by 35% and 9% respectively. In hot settings such as Southern
Europe and large parts of Africa and South Asia, increased air
temperatures would reduce average vegetable yields by an estimated
31%.<br>
Environmental changes, including climate change, water scarcity and
biodiversity loss, are predicted to become more profound in the 21st
century - posing significant challenges to global agriculture, food
security and nutrition. While there is growing evidence that
predicted future changes in temperature and rainfall will lead to
significant reductions in the yields of many staple crops such as
rice and wheat, the impacts on vegetables and legumes - important
constituents of healthy diets -are largely unknown.<br>
To address this evidence gap the researchers conducted a systematic
review of all the available evidence from experimental studies
published since 1975 on the impacts of changes in environmental
exposures on the yield and nutritional quality of vegetables and
legumes. Experiments included in the review were conducted in 40
countries...<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180611152745.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180611152745.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[important decision]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/06/13/new-york-city-climate-lawsuit-keenan/">Federal
Judge to Decide Fate of New York City Climate Lawsuit</a></b><br>
Three oil companies on Wednesday asked a federal judge to toss out a
climate lawsuit by New York City, arguing that the city's claims are
false and involve issues beyond the court's jurisdiction.<br>
Lawyers for the companies and the city appeared before U.S. District
Court Judge John F. Keenan in Manhattan to debate whether the case
has legal standing to continue. The city, which filed the lawsuit
against five major oil companies in January, contends that fossil
fuel companies should help foot the city's escalating costs of
addressing climate change.<br>
It could take Keenan several months to decide on the oil companies'
motion to dismiss.<br>
Three of the five defendants - ExxonMobil, Chevron and
ConocoPhillips - filed a motion to dismiss, while Shell and British
Petroleum have not. The city said in the lawsuit and argued in court
that the five companies including Shell and BP, have long known that
their products are responsible for global warming, which leads to
rising sea level and more severe storms and flooding.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/06/13/new-york-city-climate-lawsuit-keenan/">https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/06/13/new-york-city-climate-lawsuit-keenan/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[easy to predict]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.ecowatch.com/bangladesh-floods-climate-refugees-2577718275.html">Growing
Number of Bangladeshis Flee Rising Waters</a></b><br>
By Kieran Cooke<br>
As another monsoon season begins, huge numbers of homeless
Bangladeshis are once again bracing themselves against the onslaught
of floods and the sight of large chunks of land being devoured by
rising water levels.<br>
Bangladesh, on the Bay of Bengal, is low-lying and crisscrossed by a
web of rivers: two thirds of the country's land area is less than
five meters (approximately 16 feet) above sea level. With 166
million people, it's one of the poorest and most densely populated
countries on Earth - and one of the most threatened by climate
change.<br>
A recently released report by the Environmental Justice Foundation
(EJF) says rises in sea levels caused by climate change could result
in Bangladesh losing more than 10 percent of its land area by
mid-century, resulting in the displacement of 15 million people.<br>
The country is already experiencing some of the fastest-recorded sea
level rises in the world, says the EJF, a UK-based organization that
lobbies for environmental security to be viewed as a basic human
right.<br>
- - -- - <br>
"There should be clarifications on the obligations of states to
persons displaced by climate change, with new legal definitions,"
says EJF.<br>
"Definitions of climate-induced migration are urgently needed to
ensure a rights-based approach and give clarity to the legal status
of 'climate refugees'; these must be developed without delay."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.ecowatch.com/bangladesh-floods-climate-refugees-2577718275.html">https://www.ecowatch.com/bangladesh-floods-climate-refugees-2577718275.html</a></font><br>
- - - - <br>
[American climate refugees]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnOwYmIreGQ">Jeff Goodell
on American Climate Refugees - the New Joads</a></b><br>
greenmanbucket<br>
Published on Jun 6, 2018<br>
Senior Rolling Stone writer Jeff Goodell discusses spreading cases
of climate refugees - not just internationally, but in the US<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnOwYmIreGQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnOwYmIreGQ</a></font><br>
- - - - <br>
[Who knew? Shell knew.]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/06/40-years-ago-shell-knew-about-climate-migration-story-told-publicly-instead">Shell
Knew About Climate Migration 40 Years Ago. This is What it Told
the Public</a></b><br>
By Chloe Farand <br>
Share<br>
Thirty years ago, oil company Shell was warned in private that its
own products were responsible for climate change which in turn could
lead to large scale climate migration.<br>
Yet over the following decade, the company publicly justified the
ongoing need for fossil fuels as the only realistic way to achieve
sustainable development and lift vulnerable communities out of
poverty.<br>
Shell has repeatedly used the arguments of population growth and
increasing energy demand at the heart of its public pronouncements
about its role in driving economic and sustainable development. <br>
But Shell also knew that burning fossil fuels would "alter the
environment in such a way" that it would affect parts of the world's
"habitability" and could lead to new migration patterns.<br>
There is a clear relationship between climate change and forced
migration as crops fail and extreme weather increases. But recent
research also points to the impossibility of separating climate
change from the myriad of other factors that drive people to leave
their homes.<br>
Documents first uncovered by <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://decorrespondent.nl/jelmermommers">Jelmer Mommers</a>
of <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://decorrespondent.nl/">De
Correspondent</a>, and published on <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatefiles.com/">Climate Files</a>, show the
discrepancy between what Shell was told in confidence and what it
decided to say in public. Throughout the 1990s, the documents show
that Shell failed to mention in public that burning fossil fuels
could result in people being forced to leave their homes because of
sea-level rise and that entire regions of the world could be made
uninhabitable.<br>
- - video <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/wBbtFcV12mo">https://youtu.be/wBbtFcV12mo</a>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://youtu.be/wBbtFcV12mo">1988:
'Parts of the world could become uninhabitable'</a><br>
DeSmog UK previously reported on a confidential 1988 report called
the Greenhouse Effect, which showed that Shell knew about the impact
its fossil fuel products were having on climate change. The report
also set out how climate change consequences, such as sea level
rise, could have a direct impact on people's livelihood and
migration patterns. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/06/40-years-ago-shell-knew-about-climate-migration-story-told-publicly-instead">https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/06/40-years-ago-shell-knew-about-climate-migration-story-told-publicly-instead</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[Read the Shell documents for yourself]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1988-shell-report-greenhouse/">1988
Shell Confidential Report "The Greenhouse Effect"</a></b><br>
Throughout the report, Shell acknowledges the central role of fossil
fuels, and oil in particular, in increasing CO2 emissions. While the
authors note the uncertainties and limitations of contemporary
climate models - particularly around the timing and intensity of
impacts - there is little ambiguity about the responsibility of the
oil industry. The report states, "Although CO2 is emitted to the
atmosphere through several natural processes… the main cause of
increasing CO2 concentrations is considered to be fossil fuel
burning."<br>
Later, the authors quantify Shell's products' unique contribution to
global CO2 emissions by segment. According to this internal
analysis, Shell's products (oil, gas, and coal) were responsible for
4% of total global carbon emissions in 1984. This is one of the
earliest examples of carbon accounting by an oil major, and
consistent with Richard Heede's "<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-pvpXB8rp67dmhmsueWaUczHS5XyPy4p/view?usp=sharing">Carbon
Majors</a>" methodology of tracing carbon responsibility back to
the producers.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1988-shell-report-greenhouse/">http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1988-shell-report-greenhouse/</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[you too can be a spy!]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.climatedocleaks.com/">Climate
Doc Leaks</a></b> is a repository for whistleblowers wanting to
report on how energy companies, public relations, law, and lobbying
firms, and others, are systematically undermining efforts to tackle
climate change - such as the recently exposed scandal with Exxon.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatedocleaks.com/">http://www.climatedocleaks.com/</a><br>
- - - <br>
[Learn how to leak]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-information-safely-securely/">HAVE
DOCUMENTS YOU WANT TO SEND TO HELP SAVE OUR PLANET?</a></b><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-information-safely-securely/"><br>
</a>Here are three ways that you can send us documents: by<a
href="http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-documents-safely-by-email/"
style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; font-family: inherit;
font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;
color: rgb(8, 145, 207); text-decoration: none;"> EMAIL</a>, by<a
href="http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-documents-safely-by-phone/"
style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; font-family: inherit;
font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;
color: rgb(8, 145, 207); text-decoration: none;"> PHONE/VOICEMAIL</a>and
to an actual <a
href="http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-documents-safely-by-mail/"
style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; font-family: inherit;
font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;
color: rgb(8, 145, 207); text-decoration: none;">MAILBOX.</a><br>
We
strongly suggest consulting additional resources before
providing us materials or
blowing the whistle on an employer.
Helpful resources include<span> </span><a
href="http://www.peer.org/assets/docs/The%20Art%20of%20Anonymous%20Activism.pdf"
style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; font-family: inherit;
font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;
color: rgb(8, 145, 207); text-decoration: none;"><em
style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; font-family:
inherit; font-size: 16px; font-style: italic; font-weight:
inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;
vertical-align: baseline;">The Art of Anonymous Activism</em></a>,
a joint project of<span> </span><a
href="http://www.pogo.org/about/contact.html" style="box-sizing:
border-box; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px;
font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline:
0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(8, 145,
207); text-decoration: none;">POGO</a>,
<span> </span><a
href="http://www.peer.org/state-federal-watch/state-watch/"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px;
font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit;
font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;
vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(8, 145, 207);
text-decoration: none;">PEER</a>, and<span> </span><a
href="http://www.whistleblowers.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=66"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px;
font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit;
font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;
vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(8, 145, 207);
text-decoration: none;">GAP</a><span> </span>and websites like<span> </span><a
href="http://www.whistleblowers.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid=42"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px;
font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit;
font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;
vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(8, 145, 207);
text-decoration: none;">National Whistleblower Center</a>.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-information-safely-securely/">http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-information-safely-securely/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Academic video lecture]<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHbuvx6u2Sk">Ecological and
Psychological Perspectives on Climate Change</a><br>
Published on Feb 20, 2018<br>
Science for the Public Science Literacy 2018 series at MIT, February
13, 2018. Briir an Helmuth, Ph.D., Northeastern University; and
John Coley, Ph.D., Northeastern University. This team combines
their respective experiences and expertise to analyze why people
differ in considering the facts of climate change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHbuvx6u2Sk">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHbuvx6u2Sk</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Old news from Aug 2017]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/28/how-climate-change-is-death-sentence-afghanistan-highlands-global-warming">How
climate change is a 'death sentence' in Afghanistan's highlands</a></b><br>
Global warming should be taken as seriously as fighting insurgents,
say those witnessing the savage impact first-hand<br>
- - - - -<br>
Farmers say unanimously that temperatures have risen over the past
decades. Rain is scarcer and more unpredictable. "People know about
climate change even if they don't call it that," says Fatima Akbari,
the UNEP's country assistant. "They know all about change in water
and weather."<br>
Despite 15 years as one of the world's biggest receivers of
international aid, much of it to agriculture, Afghanistan remains
woefully underdeveloped and largely defenceless against jolts from
nature. Western donors primarily poured money into short-sighted
programmes such as heavy engineering and cash-for-work schemes,
designed for "quick impact", Scanlon says...<br>
- - - - -<br>
Women are particularly affected by erratic weather. In Borghason,
when the rains fail, farmers switch crops from barley to wheat,
which is less ideal as livestock feed, says Chaman, an older woman
in the village. As a result, women - who are tasked with fetching
water and tending livestock - have longer distances to hike.<br>
Villages in Bamiyan exemplify how climate change can hamper the
ability of families to sustain themselves. According to Prince
Zaher, they show why global warming should be taken as seriously as
fighting insurgents. "Terrorism is not going to be lingering here
for ever," he says. "But climate change is an ongoing death
sentence."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/28/how-climate-change-is-death-sentence-afghanistan-highlands-global-warming">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/28/how-climate-change-is-death-sentence-afghanistan-highlands-global-warming</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Oops, Antarctica is loosing mass]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McQyzj1wxw">Jonathan
Bamber on Antarctic Precipitation</a></b><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McQyzj1wxw"><br>
</a>greenmanbucket<br>
Published on Jun 13, 2018<br>
If the planet warms, and the atmosphere can hold more moisture
(that's physics) - then will increased precipitation over Antarctica
cancel out ice loss?<br>
Glaciologist Jonathan Bamber PhD of the University of Bristol
expands.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McQyzj1wxw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McQyzj1wxw</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://priceofoil.org/2018/06/11/debunked-g20-clean-gas-myth/">Debunked:
The G20 Clean Gas Myth</a></b><br>
Matt Maiorana, June 11, 2018<br>
<font size="-1">Oil Change International in collaboration with:<br>
African Climate Reality Project, Amazon Watch, Asian Peoples'
Movement on Debt & Development, Christian Aid, Earthworks,
Engajamundo, Food & Water Europe, Food & Water Watch,
Greenpeace, Health of Mother Earth Foundation, Leave it in the
Ground Initiative, Legambiente, Observatori del Deute en la
Globalització, Platform, Rainforest Action Network, Re:Common,
Stand.earth, UK Youth Climate Coalition, urgewald, and 350.org</font><br>
June 2018<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2018/06/debunked_g20_eng_07_web.pdf">Download
the full report. </a><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2018/06/debunked_g20_esp_04_web.pdf">Descargar
en espanol.</a><br>
This report focuses on fossil gas development in the G20 and
debunking the myth of fossil gas as a clean transition fuel. The
report finds that:<br>
<b>The concept of fossil gas as a "bridge fuel" to a stable climate
is a myth</b>. Emissions from existing gas fields, alongside
existing oil and coal development, already exceed carbon budgets
aligned with the Paris Agreement. Even if all coal mines were shut
down tomorrow, the gas and oil in already-developed fields alone
would take the world beyond the carbon budget for a 50% chance at
staying below 1.5 degrees C of global warming.<br>
Despite this reality, <b>G20 countries are projected to host
investment of over $1.6 trillion USD in new gas projects by 2030</b>.
If this happens, emissions unlocked through 2050 would make it
extremely difficult to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which
has been signed by all G20 members.<br>
Five countries - the United States, Russia, Australia, China, and
Canada - are projected to be responsible for 75% of capital
expenditures in gas production in G20 countries from 2018-2030.<br>
Argentina's push to open massive shale gas deposits to investment
risks undermining its commitment to the Paris Agreement and the work
of the Energy Transitions Working Group during its G20 Presidency.<br>
This report is one of two reports published simultaneously that
question the ongoing push for expanding fossil gas production in G20
countries.<br>
This report, 'Debunked: The G20 Clean Gas Myth,' focuses on fossil
gas development in the G20 and debunking the myth of fossil gas as a
clean transition fuel.<br>
The partner report, 'Debunked: The Promise of Argentina's Vaca
Muerta Shale Play,' published by Greenpeace in Argentina, focuses on
the myths surrounding the development of shale gas in Argentina,
particularly the Vaca Muerta shale play. It is available at: <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://priceofoil.org/debunked-vaca-muerta">http://priceofoil.org/debunked-vaca-muerta</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://priceofoil.org/2018/06/11/debunked-g20-clean-gas-myth/">http://priceofoil.org/2018/06/11/debunked-g20-clean-gas-myth/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[into the details]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2018/06/a-1-5-c-warmer-world-could-go-in-a-lot-of-different-directions/">What
are average global temperature targets hiding?</a></b><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2018/06/a-1-5-c-warmer-world-could-go-in-a-lot-of-different-directions/"><br>
</a>by Sarah DeWeerdt | Jun 12, 2018<br>
The ideal goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to
1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. By "warming," scientists
and policy makers mean an increase in global average, or mean,
temperature. But this average hides a lot of complexity, and
scientific papers - let alone broader climate change discussions -
rarely spell that out.<br>
"Global mean temperature is a construct," an international group of
researchers writes in a paper published last week in Nature - which
has got to be one of the more postmodern sentences ever to be
published in the prestigious science journal. "This deceptively
simple characterization may lead to an oversimplified perception of
human-induced climate change."<br>
What they mean is that the effects of a given average temperature
increase depend on the pathway we take to get there, as well as how
climate averages and extremes change in different regions. After
all, climate change is global, but its consequences for people,
economies, and ecosystems happen at the local level, and often as a
result of extreme events: droughts, floods, hurricanes, and so on.<br>
To fill out the picture of what a "1.5 degrees C warmer world" could
look like, the researchers dug into the details of several well
accepted computer climate models. Instead of focusing on the average
warming these models predict, they shone a light on the far extremes
and the long tails of probability.<br>
Their analysis showed that even if global average temperature only
increases by 1.5 degrees C, the coldest nights in the Arctic are
likely to be 7 degrees C warmer, and could be 8 degrees C warmer
than pre-industrial temperatures. Meanwhile, the hottest days in the
contiguous United States will likely increase by more than 4 degrees
C, and possibly 5 degrees C.<br>
"Highly unusual and even unprecedented temperatures may occur even
in a 1.5 degrees C climate," they write. So, even if we meet the
Paris Agreement goal, there could be much more extreme impacts for
some people and regions.<br>
How we get to 1.5 degrees C - and how fast - also matters, the
researchers found. Many climate models that predict this level of
warming in the year 2100 include a substantial probability of
"overshoot" - that is, global average temperature will breach the
1.5 degrees C threshold sometime this century, before falling below
it again by century's end.<br>
This is an increasingly likely possibility because we are already so
close to that threshold. The latest analyses suggest that global
average temperature has increased about 1 degree C since the
pre-industrial era. And we're still pumping huge amounts of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere.<br>
Overshooting the 1.5 degree C goal even temporarily could lead to
permanent loss of some species or ecosystems. It would essentially
mean faster warming - less time for species to move to areas that
are now suitable for them, and less time for people to build
adaptation infrastructure.<br>
And, because some parts of the climate system lag behind average
temperature increase, "overshoot" would commit the world to more ice
sheet melting, ocean warming, and sea level rise than would occur if
global average temperature increased more gradually and only reached
the 1.5 degrees C threshold late in the century.<br>
<br>
Finally, computer climate models are probabilistic. So a 1.5 degrees
C scenario is actually one in which global average temperature in
2100 has, say, a 66% probability of remaining below this threshold.
In other words, even if we hew to the emissions limits specified in
a "1.5 degrees C" model from this day forward, there's still a
one-in-three chance that warming will be more extreme.<br>
<br>
However, when the researchers analyzed the "worst-case scenarios" of
climate models, they found that "the worst outcomes of the 1.5
degrees C scenarios are similar to the probable outcomes of the 2
degrees C scenarios," they write. Another way to think of this is
that if you want to avoid the worst possibilities associated with 2
degrees C of warming, then aiming for 1.5 degrees C is a pretty good
strategy to accomplish that. So even though it's more complicated
than it first appears, 1.5 degrees C holds up as a benchmark for
avoiding even bigger catastrophes.<br>
Source: Seneviratne S.I. et al. "<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0181-4">The
many possible climates from the Paris Agreement's aim of 1.5
degrees C of warming</a></b>." Nature. 2018.<br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b>This Day in Climate History - June 14, 1993 -
from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
June 14, 1993: The New York Times reports on the fossil-fuel
industry's successful war against the BTU tax.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/14/us/tax-s-demise-illustrates-first-rule-of-lobbying-work-work-work.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm">http://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/14/us/tax-s-demise-illustrates-first-rule-of-lobbying-work-work-work.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
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