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<font size="+1"><i>June 15, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[Wildfires]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/us/colorado-wildfires/index.html">Colorado
firefighters hope for break in hot, dry weather</a></b><br>
By Steve Almasy and Marlena Baldacci, CNN<br>
June 13, 2018<br>
Firefighters in Colorado still have several days of tough going
against a fire that has burned more than 26,000 acres, officials
said Wednesday.<br>
The flames of the 416 Fire in the southwestern part of the state
have reached the backyards of some homes, but so far no one has been
injured and no structures have been lost, said incident commander
Todd Pechota.<br>
Asked whether the weather forecast looks favorable, Pechota answered
quickly, "No. It doesn't."<br>
"The folks on the ground have not caught a break since the day (June
1) this fire started," he said. "They've faced some really, really
tough and challenging conditions, and they know they probably have
another 48 hours of really tough work ahead of them."<br>
The National Weather Service forecast calls for the possibility of
showers on Friday night and Saturday. It was 94 degrees Wednesday
with humidity levels below 20%.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/us/colorado-wildfires/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/us/colorado-wildfires/index.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[India dust and heat]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44480135">India
Delhi residents choke as dust blankets capital</a></b><br>
Residents of India's capital Delhi are battling high pollution
levels and extreme temperatures due to an unusual dust haze covering
the city.<br>
People have been complaining about breathing problems, with many
saying the city has become unliveable.<br>
The state government has responded by banning all construction and
deploying the fire brigade to sprinkle water across the city.<br>
People have been advised to stay indoors as much as possible.<br>
"In this case, dust has become a carrier of toxic pollutants.
Pollution levels are 8-9 times higher than normal. And when we
breathe, we are taking in toxic substances, which can have serious
health repercussions," Anumita Roy Chowdhury, executive director of
the Centre For Science and Environment, told BBC Hindi.<br>
Delhi is already one of the most polluted cities in the world but
the recent weather pattern has caused more problems for its
residents.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44480135">https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44480135</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[cough, cough]<br>
<b><a
href="https://theoutline.com/post/4916/half-world-danger-dust-premature-death-climate-change-lung-disease-heart-attack-asthma?zd=1&zi=wv57aknq">A
global Dust Bowl is coming</a></b><br>
Dust is known to cause premature deaths, but climate change's effect
on how bad our dust problems will get remains notoriously
understudied.<br>
ore than 40 percent of the global population, more than 2 billion
people, have a dust problem. Not "dust" meaning the grey puffs under
the couch, but the dust of the Dust Bowl: microscopic soil
particles, less than 0.05 millimeters across, so small that they get
hoisted up into the wind and end up in people's lungs.<br>
We know that large amounts of dust are linked to premature death.
However, climate change is expected to make the problem much worse
in the next century, and scientists still don't know how much. In
the next century, the lethal range of dust is expected to
proliferate. Between now and 2050, the many as 4 billion people,
half the world's population, are expected to live in drylands. It's
not because people are migrating there. Drylands are growing because
of (you guessed it) climate change.<br>
According to a research letter in Nature published in May from
scientists from Harvard and George Washington University, airborne
dust levels are expected to proliferate by 30 percent by 2100 due to
climate change, and dust-related premature deaths could go up by as
much as 130 percent.<br>
"Despite [health] concerns, few studies have examined the impacts on
air quality and public health of the projected hydroclimate changes
in the southwestern United States," the study reads.<br>
As global warming speeds up evaporation,<span> </span><a
href="https://theoutline.com/post/4566/water-freshwater-nasa-study-climate-change-natural-resources-water-management?zd=1&zi=a7n5jbzz"
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inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">freshwater resources
are expected to dry up around the world</a>. This sets off a
vicious cycle: Compared to, say, a tropical rainforest, dry soil and
dust particles absorb less carbon dioxide from the air. As a result,
dry, dust-prone areas actively keep themselves that way.<br>
In excess,<span> </span><a
href="https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/health-and-environmental-effects-particulate-matter-pm"
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font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">dust has been linked
to</a><span> </span>not just asthma, lung disease,<span> </span><a
href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21255392"
style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;
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font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">fibrosis, lung cancer</a>,
and difficulty breathing, but heart disease, heart attacks, and
irregular heart beats. These health risks are a fact of life for
people who live in "drylands," or swaths of land that get little
rain, has dry soil, and doesn't have much plantlife. This doesn't
just include desserts, but also grasslands and prairies.<br>
By the end of the twenty-first century, as much as<span> </span><a
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2837"
style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;
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font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">half of the world's
landmass</a>could be covered by drylands, especially in<span> </span><a
href="http://cyber.sci-hub.tw/MTAuMTAzOC9uY2xpbWF0ZTI4Mzc=/10.1038%40nclimate2837.pdf"
style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;
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inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">economically
vulnerable areas</a><span> </span>in<span> </span><a
href="https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/10081/2013/"
style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;
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inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">South America,
Africa, and Mediterranean-bordering countries</a>.<br>
The most vulnerable areas are dangerously understudied. According to
a<span> </span><a
href="http://moscow.sci-hub.tw/d6b6cfe2b4e97878c39eb71e6020685e/10.1007%40s00484-012-0541-y.pdf"
style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;
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border-left-style: initial; border-color:
var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63); border-image: initial; font-style:
inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">research review</a><span> </span>from
the University of Namur in Belgium, we still don't understand the
extremity of how climate change-driven dust from the largest desert,
the Sahara, will hurt human health.<br>
"[This paper] reveals an imbalance between the areas most exposed to
dust and the areas most studied in terms of health effects,"<span> </span><a
href="http://moscow.sci-hub.tw/d6b6cfe2b4e97878c39eb71e6020685e/10.1007%40s00484-012-0541-y.pdf"
style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;
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var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63); border-image: initial; font-style:
inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">write the authors</a>.
"None of these studies has been conducted in West Africa, despite
the proximity of the Sahara, which produces about half of the yearly
global mineral dust."<br>
According to<span> </span><a
href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5773909/"
style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;
border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial;
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border-left-style: initial; border-color:
var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63); border-image: initial; font-style:
inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit;
font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit;
font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration:
none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);">a research review</a><span> </span>published
in<span> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px;
padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: italic; font-variant:
inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size:
inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;
vertical-align: baseline;">Environ Health</em><span> </span>in
2017, even socially and economically privileged areas, such as
Europe, are a climate change dust blind spot. "There are few studies
on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on
air quality," the paper reads, "but these report higher
[aerosol]-related health burdens in polluted populated regions and
greater [dust] health burdens in these [European] emission regions."<br>
Since 1997, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has regulated
the amount of particulate matter—microscopic matter which includes
soil dust, as well as other human-made chemical pollutants. In fact,<span> </span><a
href="https://theoutline.com/post/4406/climate-change-air-pollution-inequality-world-health-organization-asthma-cancer-heart-disease?zd=1&zi=5uslprdw"
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initial; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight:
inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height:
inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;
text-decoration: none; color: var(--scheme-color-a,#183f63);
background-image: url("data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf8,%3Csvg
id='Squiggle-svg' xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'
xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'
xmlns:ev='http://www.w3.org/2001/xml-events' viewBox='0 0 20
4'%3E%3Cstyle type='text/css'%3E.st0{animation:shift .3s linear
infinite;}@keyframes shift {from {transform:translateX(0);}to
{transform:translateX(-20px);}}%3C/style%3E%3Cpath fill='none'
stroke='%23000' stroke-width='1' class='st0' d='M0,3.5 c
5,0,5,-3,10,-3 s 5,3,10,3 c 5,0,5,-3,10,-3 s
5,3,10,3'/%3E%3C/svg%3E"); background-position: 0px calc(100%
- 1.5px); background-size: auto 3px; background-repeat: repeat-x;">the
U.S. and other wealthy countries around the world</a><span> </span>have
made curbing air pollution a priority for people in their countries.
But regulating microscopic matter from factories won't stop the
larger force of climate change-driven desertification and the risk
it presents to human health.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top:
var(--paragraph-margin); margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;
margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: normal;
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font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit;
font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 18px;
line-height: inherit; font-family: Fakt, sans-serif;
vertical-align: baseline; text-align: left; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);
letter-spacing: 0.225px; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><font size="-1"><a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://theoutline.com/post/4916/half-world-danger-dust-premature-death-climate-change-lung-disease-heart-attack-asthma?zd=1&zi=wv57aknq">https://theoutline.com/post/4916/half-world-danger-dust-premature-death-climate-change-lung-disease-heart-attack-asthma?zd=1&zi=wv57aknq</a></font><br>
</p>
<br>
<br>
[Classic Video]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WpaLt_Blr4">The
Anthropocene and the Near Future: Crash Course Big History #9</a></b><br>
CrashCourse<br>
Published on Dec 11, 2014<br>
In which John Green, Hank Green, and Emily Graslie teach you about
the Anthropocene, an unofficial geological era that covers the last
century or so, in which humanity has made massive progress. We've
discovered the Higgs-Boson particle, and awesome electric cars, and
amazing smartphones. So all this collective learning and progress
has been good for everyone, right? Maybe not. We'll look at some of
the pros and cons of all this "progress," including environmental
impact, changes in the way people live and work, and political
changes and wars that come along with the modern world. We've come a
long way, but there's a long way to go. Crash Course will also take
a look at what's going to happen in the near future. If we manage to
make our way through the coming bottlenecks, we could be OK in
coming centuries. Don't get too hopeful, though. The Sun will
eventually die, and the Earth will be destroyed, and later the
universe will eventually experience heat death. But we won't talk
about those downers until next week. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WpaLt_Blr4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WpaLt_Blr4</a></font><br>
- - - -- <br>
[More about the Anthropocene]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW138ZTKioM">The
Anthropocene: The age of mankind - Docu - 2017</a></b><br>
vpro documentary<br>
Published on Jul 9, 2017<br>
An ocean that contains as much plastic as fish, an atmosphere filled
with CO2 choking the whole mankind and mass extinction of animals.
The destructive influence of mankind will be at least as disastrous
as the asteroid element that wiped the dinosaurs off the planet.
Reason for Dutch scientist Paul Crutzen to introduce a new
geological period: the Anthropocene, or the age of mankind.<br>
Original title: Tijdperk van de mens<br>
German explorer Alexander von Humboldt (1769-1859) was one of the
first to see how everything in an ecosystem is connected. Von
Humboldt introduced the idea of the Earth as a living organism in
Western thinking, which eventually became the basis for the later
environmental movement. Geologists from now see the impact of
mankind at an increasing pace: climate warming, plastic soup,
nuclear fallout, a disturbed water supply through erosion and tar
sands, higher CO2 concentrations and diminishing biodiversity.<br>
During the last century, the influence of mankind on our Earth and
atmosphere has become so great that it is judged by some scientists
to be irreversible. To name this influence, a group of geologists
recently proposed to date the Anthropocene back to 1950, with the
exponential growth of the fossil economy. But earlier it was also
discussed that the beginning of the industrial revolution was the
starting point, or the first forms of agriculture or even the first
mining in the Stone Age.<br>
The influence of mankind on the Earth is so great that next
generations will be able to see it back in the Earth's layers over
hundreds of thousands of years. But if mankind really creates its
own geological period, how can we deal with it in an adult way
without reliance on a naive belief such as the self-solving ability
of God or nature? How can mankind take responsibility and benefit
from its influence? We are also finding solutions for climate change
and depletion of our mineral resources here on Earth: from the
cultivation of cucumbers in the desert, the mining of platinum into
the space to the regreening of eroded land. Are these breakthrough
just a bandaid on an hemorrhage or can mankind shape the
Anthropocene by means of technological intervention so that we meet
a viable future?<br>
With: Andrea Wulf (historian and author of 'The Inventor of Nature',
a biography of explorer Alexander von Humboldt), Bruno Latour
(philosopher associated with Sciences Po in Paris and author of,
among others, Facing Gaia. Eight Lectures on the New Climatic Regime
') and Phil Gibbard (British geologist setting up a working group to
see if the Anthropocene can be introduced as an official geological
term).<br>
Originally broadcasted by VPRO in 2017.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW138ZTKioM">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW138ZTKioM</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Opinion in Foreign Affairs $ ]<br>
Warming World<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-06-14/warming-world">Why
Climate Change Matters More Than Anything Else</a></b><br>
By Joshua Busby<br>
The world seems to be in a state of permanent crisis. The liberal
international order is besieged from within and without. Democracy
is in decline. A lackluster economic recovery has failed to
significantly raise incomes for most people in the West. A rising
China is threatening U.S. dominance, and resurgent international
tensions are increasing the risk of a catastrophic war.<br>
Yet there is one threat that is as likely as any of these to define
this century: climate change. The disruption to the earth's climate
will ultimately command more attention and resources and have a
greater influence on the global economy and international relations
than other forces visible in the world today. Climate change will
cease to be a faraway threat and become one whose effects require
immediate action...<br>
- - - - -<br>
The only way of achieving that [2 degrees] is through a system that
recognizes the diffusion of power. To some extent, that diffusion is
already under way, as the United States is ceding hegemonic control
in an increasingly multipolar world, in which more is expected of a
rising China. But the process will have to go much further.
Governments will need to coordinate with subnational units, private
corporations, nongovernmental organizations, and very rich
individuals. On climate change and many other problems, these actors
are much better able than governments to change things at the local
level. Creating an order fit for purpose will not be easy. But the
nascent combination of international agreements and networks of
organizations and people dedicated to solving specific problems
offers the best chance to avoid cataclysmic climate change.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-06-14/warming-world">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-06-14/warming-world</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[real harm]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13062018/trump-epa-air-pollution-data-clean-water-regulations-public-health-environmental-laws-harvard-study">Trump's
Environmental Rollbacks Put Thousands of Lives at Risk, Harvard
Analysis Finds</a></b><b><br>
</b>The authors used EPA's own risk assessments to estimate the
number of illnesses and early deaths prevented by clean air and
water rules Trump is now trying to erase.<br>
Marianne Lavelle<br>
Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's own numbers, two
Harvard scientists have calculated that 80,000 more lives will be
lost per decade if President Donald Trump's administration fulfills
its plans to roll back clean air and water protections.<br>
The researchers, terming their tally "an extremely conservative
estimate," also estimated that the repeal of regulations will lead
to respiratory problems for more than 1 million people. Their essay
was published Tuesday in the authoritative Journal of the American
Medical Association.<br>
"We felt it was important to take a comprehensive view," said
Francesca Dominici, a biostatistician and co-director of the Data
Science Initiative at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
"Some people, when looking at one specific repealing of a rule,
might not think it's important. We wanted to put some numbers on the
whole systematic repeal of rule after rule."...<br>
- - - -- <br>
Pruitt's 'Secret Science' Plan Targets Health Data<br>
In their JAMA essay, Dominici and Cutler singled out the move to
curb agency use of science as one of the most potentially
consequential, because Pruitt is targeting epidemiological studies
of human subjects. Although Pruitt calls this a move for greater
"transparency," Dominici said it would in fact bar EPA consideration
of precisely the kinds of studies that formed the basis of the
calculations that she and Cutler did.<br>
"They are attacking the science because the science is what is
putting the number of deaths where they are," she said. "It's a
tactic to discredit the science, so that health impact analysis will
not be able to be done any more."<br>
The EPA, which received more than 150,000 public comments in 30 days
on its proposal to restrict agency science, has extended the comment
period on that proposal through August. The agency also has set a
July 17 hearing in Washington, D.C., on the plan.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13062018/trump-epa-air-pollution-data-clean-water-regulations-public-health-environmental-laws-harvard-study">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13062018/trump-epa-air-pollution-data-clean-water-regulations-public-health-environmental-laws-harvard-study</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/11/following-spills-and-sinkholes-mariner-east-pipeline-opponents-call-pa-governor-wolf-stop-construction">Following
Spills and Sinkholes, Mariner East Pipeline Opponents Call on PA
Governor Wolf to Stop Construction</a></b><br>
By Sharon Kelly - Monday, June 11, 2018<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/11/following-spills-and-sinkholes-mariner-east-pipeline-opponents-call-pa-governor-wolf-stop-construction">https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/11/following-spills-and-sinkholes-mariner-east-pipeline-opponents-call-pa-governor-wolf-stop-construction</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[advanced science lesson 4 min video]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatemediafactory.com/#%21portfolio?0=4">ROSSBY
WAVES AND EXTREME WEATHER</a></b><br>
video <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/MzW5Isbv2A0">https://youtu.be/MzW5Isbv2A0</a><br>
The magnitude and duration of heat waves and floods that occurred in
recent summers are disproportionate. The reasons for these extreme
weather events are changes in the circulation pattern in the
northern hemisphere: quasi-stationary synoptic rossby waves with
high amplitude persist over specific regions for weeks - with
substantial impacts on the society and the environment.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatemediafactory.com/#%21portfolio?0=4">http://www.climatemediafactory.com/#!portfolio?0=4</a></font><br>
[fundamentals of circulation 2 min Video]<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye45DGkqUkE">Global
Atmospheric Circulation</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye45DGkqUkE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye45DGkqUkE</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[is this astronomical disavowal?]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alien-anthropocene-how-would-other-worlds-battle-climate-change/">Alien
Anthropocene: How Would Other Worlds Battle Climate Change?</a></b><br>
The problem would likely plague every technological civilization
throughout the universe, says astrophysicist Adam Frank..<br>
- - - -<br>
Over the years what I've come to understand is that human-driven
climate change is really an astrobiology problem. It's not a problem
of politics. It's not a problem of businessmen versus
environmentalists. We are talking about something much bigger—a
planetary transition, which some scientists label as the
Anthropocene. Climate change is just one aspect of this new
human-dominated period. My argument is that Anthropocenes may be
generic from an astrobiological perspective; what we're experiencing
now may be the sort of transition that everybody goes through,
throughout the universe. And there are probably some common features
to long-lived civilizations and the planets they inhabit...<br>
I really started exploring this in 2014, when I co-authored a paper
with Woody Sullivan of the University of Washington that proposed
using dynamical systems theory to model some of these planetary
transitions. We argued that it's possible to identify the basic
paths that "exocivilizations" might follow and the feedbacks that
might occur when they begin altering their planetary climates. In my
latest paper, just published with several colleagues, we went ahead
and actually did some of that modeling..<br>
<blockquote>So, when it comes to thinking about the interactions
between an advanced technological civilization and its planet,
well, we actually know a lot more about that today than people
knew about the Higgs boson 50 years ago. We have lots of examples
of planetary climates that we've studied right here in the solar
system—Venus, Mars, Titan, Jupiter and so on. And we've got
computer models that can nicely forecast, for instance, the
weather on Mars! So we really do understand climate pretty well.
And a civilization, to some degree, is just a mechanism for
transforming energy on a planetary surface. This gets us into the
realms of thermodynamics on global scales, which is supercool...<br>
</blockquote>
So the next step is to incorporate principles of population biology,
in which the idea of "carrying capacity"—the number of organisms
that can be sustainably supported by the local environment—is very
important. This approach can be mathematically applied to the state
of a planet, too. So in our latest modeling work we've got an
equation for how the planet is changing and an equation for how the
population is changing. What ties them together is the predictable
result that as environmental conditions on a planet get worse, the
total carrying capacity goes down. A civilization with a population
of n will use the resources of their planet to increase n, but at
the same time by using those resources they tend to degrade the
planet's environment...<br>
<blockquote>In the models we saw these three classes of behaviors,
three trajectories: A "die-off," where the population overshoots
the carrying capacity and then dwindles; a "steady state," where
the population growth slows and ends up within the bounds of
carrying capacity; and then a "collapse," where the population and
the carrying capacity both just drop like a stone...<br>
</blockquote>
In the models we saw these three classes of behaviors, three
trajectories: A "die-off," where the population overshoots the
carrying capacity and then dwindles; a "steady state," where the
population growth slows and ends up within the bounds of carrying
capacity; and then a "collapse," where the population and the
carrying capacity both just drop like a stone...<br>
<blockquote>I really do think, though, that the route to our making
it through the Anthropocene runs through other planets. We aren't
going to become a sustainable planetary civilization by only
dealing with the Earth. I give lots of examples in the book, but
one of the best is the fact that the climate models that revealed
the possibility of "nuclear winter"—a global cooling caused by the
atmospheric effects of a nuclear war—relied heavily on data about
Martian dust storms. Talk about cross-fertilization! Those nuclear
winter models totally changed the debate about nuclear weapons,
and they came from understanding another world.<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alien-anthropocene-how-would-other-worlds-battle-climate-change/">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alien-anthropocene-how-would-other-worlds-battle-climate-change/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[academic paper]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305414000484">Sustainability
and the astrobiological perspective: Framing human futures in a
planetary context</a></b><br>
AdamFrank and Woodruff Sullivan<br>
Abstract<br>
<blockquote>We explore how questions related to developing a
sustainable human civilization can be cast in terms of
astrobiology. In particular we show how ongoing astrobiological
studies of the coupled relationship between life, planets and
their co-evolution can inform new perspectives and direct new
studies in sustainability science. Using the Drake Equation as a
vehicle to explore the gamut of astrobiology, we focus on its most
import factor for sustainability: the mean lifetime of an
ensemble of Species with Energy-Intensive Technology (SWEIT). We
cast the problem into the language of dynamical system theory and
introduce the concept of a trajectory bundle for SWEIT evolution.
We then discuss how astrobiological results usefully inform the
creation of dynamical equations, their constraints and initial
conditions. Three specific examples of how astrobiological
considerations can be folded into discussions of sustainability
are discussed: (1) concepts of planetary habitability, (2) mass
extinctions and their possible relation to the current, so-called
Anthropocene epoch, and (3) today's changes in atmospheric
chemistry (and the climate change it entails) in the context of
pervious epochs of biosphere-driven atmospheric and climate
alteration (i.e. the Great Oxidation Event).<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305414000484">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305414000484</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[another, related study]<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305417300425">Earth
as a Hybrid Planet: The Anthropocene in an Evolutionary
Astrobiological Context</a><br>
Adam Frank and Axel Kleidon and Marina Alberti<br>
Abstract<br>
<blockquote>We develop a classification scheme for the evolutionary
state of planets based on the non-equilibrium thermodynamics of
their coupled systems, including the presence of a biosphere and
the possibility of what we call an "agency-dominated biosphere"
(i.e. an energy-intensive technological species). The premise is
that Earth's entry into the "Anthropocene" represents what might
be, from an astrobiological perspective, a predictable planetary
transition. We explore this problem from the perspective of the
solar system and exoplanet studies. Our classification
discriminates planets by the forms of free energy generation
driven from stellar forcing. We then explore how timescales for
global evolutionary processes on Earth might be synchronized with
ecological transformations driven by increases in energy
harvesting and its consequences (which might have reached a
turning point with global urbanization). Finally, we describe
quantitatively the classification scheme based on the maintenance
of chemical disequilibrium in the past and current Earth systems
and on other worlds in the solar system. In this perspective, the
beginning of the Anthropocene can be seen as the onset of the
hybridization of the planet – a transitional stage from one class
of planetary systems interaction to another. For Earth, this stage
occurs as the effects of human civilization yield not just new
evolutionary pressures, but new selected directions for novel
planetary ecosystem functions and their capacity to generate
disequilibrium and enhance planetary dissipation.<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305417300425">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305417300425</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[warnings about bad ideas and bad policy]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.energy-charter-dirty-secrets.org/">One
Treaty to rule them all</a></b><br>
The ever-expanding Energy Charter Treaty and the power it gives
corporations to halt the energy transition<br>
Published by Corporate Europe Observatory and the Transnational
Institute<br>
June 2018<br>
We know what we have to do to solve the climate crisis. We must keep
coal, oil and gas in the ground. But the fossil fuel industry has a
secret powerful weapon to keep cooking the planet: The Energy
Charter Treaty (ECT). It is on the brink of a massive geographical
expansion into Africa, Asia and Latin America, threatening to bind
yet more countries to corporate-friendly energy policies.<br>
The report is available at <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="http://www.energy-charter-dirty-secrets.org">www.energy-charter-dirty-secrets.org</a><br>
Executive summaries are available in English, German, Italian,
French, Spanish<br>
Watch the 4' video <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/lLVvwOrk91Q">https://youtu.be/lLVvwOrk91Q</a><br>
Thanks for helping to spread the word<br>
- Forward to your networks<br>
- Tweet about it. If you would like to re-tweet, see today's tweets
from @corporateeurope and @TNInstitute<br>
- Share on facebook or like the post at <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.facebook.com/CorporateEuropeObservatory/">https://www.facebook.com/CorporateEuropeObservatory/</a>
and <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.facebook.com/TransnationalInstitute/">https://www.facebook.com/TransnationalInstitute/</a><br>
Key findings:<br>
<blockquote>No trade and investment agreement anywhere in the world
has triggered more investor-state lawsuits than the ECT. At the
time of going to press in June 2018, the ECT Secretariat listed a
total of 114 corporate claims filed under the treaty. Given the
opacity of the system, the actual number of ECT claims could be
much higher.<br>
<br>
In recent years the number of ECT investor lawsuits has exploded.
While just 19 cases were registered during the first 10 years of
the agreement (1998-2008), 75 investor lawsuits were filed in the
last five years alone (2013-2017).* This trend is likely to
continue.<br>
<br>
More recently, investors have begun to use the ECT to sue
countries in Western Europe. While in the first 15 years of the
agreement 89 per cent of ECT-lawsuits hit states in Central and
Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, today Spain and Italy head the
list of the most-sued countries. The ECT remains the only
effective treaty in which Western European states have accepted
ISDS with countries that are also capital exporters to them. It is
also the only agreement which allows for investor-state
arbitrations against the EU as a whole.<br>
<br>
More and more money is at stake for states and taxpayers. There
are 16 ECT suits in which investors – mostly large corporations or
very wealthy individuals – sued for US$1 billion or more in
damages.* Some of the most expensive claims in the history of ISDS
include ECT cases such as Vattenfall's challenge to Germany over
its exit from nuclear power (over US$5.1 billion), and the largest
ISDS award ever, a US$50 billion order against Russia in the Yukos
cases. Total legal costs average US$11 million in ISDS disputes,
but can be much higher.<br>
<br>
Corporations claim compensation for loss of 'future profits'. Oil
company Rockhopper is not just claiming the US$40-50 million from
Italy which it actually spent on exploring an oil field in the
Adriatic Sea. It also claims an additional US$200-300 million for
hypothetical profits the field could have made had Italy not
banned new oil and gas projects off the coast.<br>
<br>
Governments have been ordered or agreed to pay more than US$51.2
billion in damages from the public purse* – roughly equalling the
annual investment needed to provide access to energy for all those
people in the world who currently lack it. Outstanding ECT claims*
have a collective value of US$35 billion – far more than the
estimated annual amount of money needed for Africa to adapt to
climate change.<br>
<br>
Investors who have filed lawsuits under the ECT come mostly from
Western Europe. Companies and individuals registered in the
Netherlands, Germany, Luxembourg, and the UK (or in the tax haven
Cyprus) make up 59 per cent of the 153 investors involved in
claims.*<br>
<br>
The majority of ECT claims are intra-EU disputes, yet sideline EU
courts. 67 per cent of ECT investor lawsuits* were brought by an
investor from one EU member state against the government of
another member state, claiming large sums of public money arguably
not available to them under the EU legal system. That means that
nearly half of all known intra-EU investment disputes were
launched under the ECT (the others being based on bilateral
treaties). In March 2018 the European Court of Justice ruled that
intra-EU ISDS proceedings under these bilateral treaties violate
EU law as they sideline EU courts – an argument which could also
apply to the ECT.<br>
<br>
The ECT is prone to abuse by letterbox companies, which mainly
exist on paper and are often used for tax evasion and money
laundering. For example 23 of the 24 "Dutch" investors who have
filed ECT-lawsuits* are letterbox companies. They include Khan
Netherlands (used by Canadian mining company Khan Resources to sue
Mongolia even though Canada is not even a party to the ECT), and
Isolux Infrastructure Netherlands and Charanne (both used by
Spanish businessmen Luis Delso and José Gomis, two of the richest
Spaniards, to sue Spain). Thanks to the ECT's overly broad
definition of "investor" and "investment", states can effectively
be sued by investors from around the globe, including by their own
nationals.<br>
<br>
The ECT is increasingly being used by speculative financial
investors such as portfolio investors and holding companies. In 88
per cent of lawsuits over cuts to support schemes for renewable
energy in Spain, the claimant is not a renewable energy firm, but
an equity fund or other type of financial investor, often with
links to the coal, oil, gas, and nuclear industries. Several of
the funds only invested when Spain was already in full-blown
economic crisis mode and some changes to the support schemes had
already been made (which the funds later argued undermined their
profit expectations). Some investors view the ECT not only as an
insurance policy, but as an additional source of profit.<br>
<br>
The ECT is a powerful tool in the hands of big oil, gas, and coal
companies to discourage governments from transitioning to clean
energy. They have used the ECT and other investment deals to
challenge oil drilling bans, the rejection of pipelines, taxes on
fossil fuels, and moratoria on and phase-outs of controversial
types of energy. Corporations have also used the ECT to bully
decision-makers into submission. Vattenfall's €1.4 billion legal
attack on environmental standards for a coal-fired power plant in
Germany forced the local government to relax the regulations to
settle the case.<br>
<br>
The ECT can be used to attack governments that aim to reduce
energy poverty and make electricity affordable. Under the ECT
Bulgaria and Hungary have already been sued for compensation in
the hundreds of millions, in part for curbing big energy's profits
and pushing for lower electricity prices. Investment lawyers are
considering similar action against the UK, where the government
has announced a cap on energy prices to end rip-off bills.<br>
<br>
A small number of arbitrators dominate ECT decision-making. 25
arbitrators have captured the decision-making in 44 per cent of
the ECT cases while two-thirds have also acted as legal counsel in
other investment treaty disputes. Acting as arbitrator and lawyer
in different cases has led to growing concerns over conflicts of
interest, particularly because this small group of lawyers have
secured extremely corporate-friendly interpretations of the ECT,
paving the way for even more expensive claims against states in
the future.<br>
<br>
Five elite law firms have been involved in nearly half of all
known ECT investor lawsuits. Law firms have been key drivers of
the surge in ECT cases, relentlessly advertising the treaty's vast
litigation options to their corporate clients, encouraging them to
sue countries.<br>
<br>
Third party funders are becoming more and more established in ECT
arbitrations. These investment funds finance the legal costs in
investor-state disputes in exchange for a share in any granted
award or settlement. This is likely to further fuel the boom in
arbitrations, increase costs for cash-strapped governments, and
make them more likely to cave in to corporate demands.<br>
<br>
There are concerns about self-dealing and institutionalised
corruption in institutions that administer ECT disputes. For
example the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of
Commerce (SCC), prominent in ECT disputes, is problematic because
its arbitrations are particularly secretive, prone to conflicts of
interest, and potentially more biased against states than other
proceedings.<br>
<br>
Polluting companies and for-profit investment lawyers enjoy
privileged access to the ECT Secretariat, which puts into question
the latter's neutrality and ability to act in the interest of the
ECT's signatory states as well as a transition off fossil fuels.
More than 80 per cent of the companies on the ECT's Industry
Advisory Panel make money with oil, gas, and coal. Two thirds of
the lawyers on the ECT's Legal Advisory Task Force have a
financial stake in investor lawsuits against states. Both advisory
groups are given ample opportunities to influence the Secretariat,
ECT member states, and the wider Charter process in their own
interest. Several high-ranking officials at the ECT Secretariat
were with arbitration law firms before and/or after they worked at
the Secretariat.<br>
<br>
Many countries across the world are about to join the ECT,
threatening to bind them into corporate-friendly energy policies.
Jordan, Yemen, Burundi, and Mauritania are most advanced in the
accession process (ratifying the ECT internally). Next in line is
Pakistan (where investment arbitration is controversial, but which
has already been invited to accede to the ECT), followed by a
number of countries in different stages of preparing their
accession reports (Serbia, Morocco, Swaziland – renamed eSwatini
in April 2018 –, Chad, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Colombia, Niger,
Gambia, Uganda, Nigeria, and Guatemala). Many more countries have
signed the non-binding International Energy Charter political
declaration, which is considered the first step towards accession
to the legally binding Energy Charter Treaty.<br>
<br>
There is an alarming lack of awareness about the ECT's political
and financial risks in the ECT's potential new signatory states.
Officials from ministries with experience in negotiating
investment treaties and defending investor-state arbitrations are
largely absent from the process, which is being led by energy
ministries. This is worrying as many of these countries already
have disastrous experience with investor lawsuits under other
investment agreements, which could multiply if they sign on to the
ECT.<br>
<br>
The expansion process is aggressively promoted by the ECT
Secretariat, the EU, and the arbitration industry, who are eager
to gain access to the rich energy resources in the global South
and to expand their own power and profit opportunities. While they
downplay or dismiss the risks to states of acceding to the ECT,
they promote the agreement as a necessary condition for the
attraction of foreign investment, and in particular clean energy
investment for all. But there is currently no evidence that the
agreement helps to reduce energy poverty and facilitate
investment, let alone investment into renewable energy.<br>
</blockquote>
But there is some good news. Around the world, the tide is turning
against ECT-style super-rights for corporations. Campaigners,
activists, academics, and parliamentarians are beginning to ask
critical questions about the ECT. The agreements and the investor
lawsuits it has enabled could also come under legal fire from EU
courts. More countries could follow the example of Russia and Italy,
which have already turned their back on the ECT.<br>
This report warns of the dangers of expanding the ECT to an
ever-growing number of countries and concludes with eight key
reasons for leaving – or not joining – the ECT. <br>
in English here: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="http://www.energy-charter-dirty-secrets.org">www.energy-charter-dirty-secrets.org</a><br>
And here's the ES and FR pages for the report on our site
(unfortunately, we have the video and the infographic only in EN).<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://corporateeurope.org/fr/international-trade/2018/06/un-trait-pour-les-gouverner-tous">https://corporateeurope.org/fr/international-trade/2018/06/un-trait-pour-les-gouverner-tous</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://corporateeurope.org/es/international-trade/2018/06/un-tratado-para-gobernarlos-todos">https://corporateeurope.org/es/international-trade/2018/06/un-tratado-para-gobernarlos-todos</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJW4_FvVKo">This Day in
Climate History - June 15, 2010</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
June 15, 2010: In an address from the Oval Office, President Obama
declares:<br>
<blockquote> "For decades, we have known the days of cheap and
easily accessible oil were numbered. For decades, we’ve talked
and talked about the need to end America’s century-long addiction
to fossil fuels. And for decades, we have failed to act with the
sense of urgency that this challenge requires. Time and again,
the path forward has been blocked -- not only by oil industry
lobbyists, but also by a lack of political courage and candor. <br>
<br>
"The consequences of our inaction are now in plain sight.
Countries like China are investing in clean energy jobs and
industries that should be right here in America. Each day, we
send nearly $1 billion of our wealth to foreign countries for
their oil. And today, as we look to the Gulf, we see an entire
way of life being threatened by a menacing cloud of black crude.<br>
<br>
"We cannot consign our children to this future. The tragedy
unfolding on our coast is the most painful and powerful reminder
yet that the time to embrace a clean energy future is now. Now is
the moment for this generation to embark on a national mission to
unleash America’s innovation and seize control of our own destiny.<br>
<br>
"This is not some distant vision for America. The transition away
from fossil fuels is going to take some time, but over the last
year and a half, we’ve already taken unprecedented action to
jumpstart the clean energy industry. As we speak, old factories
are reopening to produce wind turbines, people are going back to
work installing energy-efficient windows, and small businesses are
making solar panels. <br>
<br>
"Consumers are buying more efficient cars and trucks, and families
are making their homes more energy-efficient. Scientists and
researchers are discovering clean energy technologies that someday
will lead to entire new industries. <br>
<br>
"Each of us has a part to play in a new future that will benefit
all of us. As we recover from this recession, the transition to
clean energy has the potential to grow our economy and create
millions of jobs -– but only if we accelerate that transition.
Only if we seize the moment. And only if we rally together and
act as one nation –- workers and entrepreneurs; scientists and
citizens; the public and private sectors. <br>
<br>
"When I was a candidate for this office, I laid out a set of
principles that would move our country towards energy
independence. Last year, the House of Representatives acted on
these principles by passing a strong and comprehensive energy and
climate bill –- a bill that finally makes clean energy the
profitable kind of energy for America’s businesses. <br>
<br>
"Now, there are costs associated with this transition. And there
are some who believe that we can’t afford those costs right now.
I say we can’t afford not to change how we produce and use energy
-– because the long-term costs to our economy, our national
security, and our environment are far greater. <br>
<br>
"So I’m happy to look at other ideas and approaches from either
party -– as long they seriously tackle our addiction to fossil
fuels. Some have suggested raising efficiency standards in our
buildings like we did in our cars and trucks. Some believe we
should set standards to ensure that more of our electricity comes
from wind and solar power. Others wonder why the energy industry
only spends a fraction of what the high-tech industry does on
research and development -– and want to rapidly boost our
investments in such research and development. <br>
<br>
"All of these approaches have merit, and deserve a fair hearing in
the months ahead. But the one approach I will not accept is
inaction. The one answer I will not settle for is the idea that
this challenge is somehow too big and too difficult to meet. You
know, the same thing was said about our ability to produce enough
planes and tanks in World War II. The same thing was said about
our ability to harness the science and technology to land a man
safely on the surface of the moon. And yet, time and again, we
have refused to settle for the paltry limits of conventional
wisdom. Instead, what has defined us as a nation since our
founding is the capacity to shape our destiny -– our determination
to fight for the America we want for our children. Even if we’re
unsure exactly what that looks like. Even if we don’t yet know
precisely how we’re going to get there. We know we’ll get there."<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJW4_FvVKo">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJW4_FvVKo</a> <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/us/politics/16obama.html?pagewanted=all">http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/us/politics/16obama.html?pagewanted=all</a>
</font><br>
<br>
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