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<font size="+1"><i>June 16, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[Leaked draft of UN report]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHxNjKW9omE">Exclusive:
Global warming set to exceed 1.5C, slow growth - U.N. draft</a></b><br>
Global warming is on course to exceed the most stringent goal set in
the Paris Agreement by around 2040, according to a leaked final
draft of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the upcoming
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) special report on
1.5C. Governments can still cap temperatures below the 1.5C limit
agreed in 2015, the draft says, but only with "rapid and
far-reaching" transitions in the world economy. There is no sign
that the latest draft has been watered down by Donald Trump's
scepticism about climate change, notes Reuters. Climate scientist
and Climate Analytics director Bill Hare told the Guardian that the
draft shows with greater clarity how much faster countries need to
move towards decarbonisation: "This IPCC report shows anyone drawing
from published papers that there are big differences between 1.5C
and 2C [of] warming in both natural and human systems". Responding
to the leak, the IPCC said in a statement that "out of respect for
the authors and to give them the time and space to finish writing
before making the work public…the IPCC does not comment on the
contents of draft reports while work is still ongoing". The final
report is due for publication in October in South Korea after
revisions and approval by governments. BusinessGreen and E&E
News also have the story.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHxNjKW9omE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHxNjKW9omE</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Declaration of War]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2018/6/14/an-unusual-grant-fuels-a-push-to-start-treating-climate-change-as-a-real-emergency">An
Unusual Grant Fuels a Push to Start Treating Climate Change as a
Real Emergency</a></b><br>
Tate Williams<br>
A major challenge to organizing and advocacy around climate change
is how even to approach a problem so large, complex, and gradually
advancing (although it feels less gradual with every year, to be
honest).<br>
An advocacy group that launched in 2014 has one answer - we respond
like we're at war. <br>
For the Climate Mobilization Project, the climate crisis demands not
incremental changes or gradual reductions in emissions, but an
emergency response led by government that is on the scale of the
response to World War II after the attack on Pearl Harbor. The group
just picked up a grant from the Unitarian Universalist Congregation
of Shelter Rock of $100,000, an amount they say is the "country's
single largest philanthropic investment in emergency climate
action."<br>
This modest grant from a local funder to a little-known climate
outfit is worth a closer look, with an eye to takeaways for other
players in this space. We've been saying for a while now that if
climate change is really the time-urgent, existential threat that so
many, including top funders, say it is, then civil society and
philanthropy needs to start acting on that belief. Nonprofits need
to hit harder and foundations need to give more - a lot more - while
there's still time.<br>
- - - -<br>
For its part, the Climate Mobilization Project is following a
city-by-city strategy to move the country into emergency mode. It's
campaigning to get governments to declare a climate emergency,
initiate aggressive carbon reduction commitments, and become
advocates for further emergency mobilization. The campaign cites
some political advances, including the Los Angeles City Council
voting to explore what would be the country's first Climate
Emergency Mobilization Department. And just this week, Berkeley,
California, declared a climate emergency.<br>
- - - - -<br>
The compelling thing about the Climate Mobilization Project is that,
while arguably unrealistic in its goals - since there's no political
consensus on this issue, as Rockoff's paper notes - it is
unflinching in its diagnosis of the level of response that climate
change warrants. Much of its goal is to build a movement around how
we should collectively think about climate change - mainly that the
status quo of the approach to date is unacceptable. And from the
standpoint of a funder like UUCSR, it's a status quo that's
certainly unjust.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2018/6/14/an-unusual-grant-fuels-a-push-to-start-treating-climate-change-as-a-real-emergency">https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2018/6/14/an-unusual-grant-fuels-a-push-to-start-treating-climate-change-as-a-real-emergency</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Kate Schapira says to just talk about it] <br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climateanxietycounseling.wordpress.com/">Climate
Anxiety Counseling in ThinkProgress</a></b><br>
JUNE 15, 2018 <br>
<b>CLIMATEANXIETYCOUNSELING</b><b><br>
</b><b>Let's talk together about the changing world. The doctor is
in.</b><br>
Jeremy Deaton wrote about me, but not just me, and the climate
booth, but not just the climate booth, for<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://thinkprogress.org/uncovering-the-mental-health-crisis-of-climate-change-dab21697ea49/">
ThinkProgress</a>. One reason I really like this article is that
it puts the booth into context, and shows how the kind of thinking
and feeling that I want it to make possible - livable - is underway.
It cites work done, and truths spoken, by many people and connects
readers to that work and those truths; it is open about the
relationships among material and emotional suffering.<br>
I'll have more of an articulate response soon (right after I…type up
all the notes from two weeks of booth sessions) but I want to thank
Jeremy for our conversation and all the other people, named and
unnamed, whose articulated reality this article includes.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climateanxietycounseling.wordpress.com/">https://climateanxietycounseling.wordpress.com/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Book Review - July release]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/roy-scranton/were-doomed-now-what/">WE'RE
DOOMED. NOW WHAT?</a></b><br>
Essays on War and Climate Change<br>
by Roy Scranton<br>
KIRKUS REVIEW<br>
Essays on war and the "eve of what may be the human world's greatest
catastrophe."<br>
Novelist and journalist Scranton (English/Notre Dame Univ.; War
Porn, 2016, etc.) collects essays and talks, most previously
published, that primarily cover climate change, serving with the
Army in the Middle East, race, and contemporary war literature. The
author is clearly frustrated and angry, and he is doing his level
best to face the doom and gloom. As he writes in the title essay,
"we stand today on a precipice of annihilation that Nietzsche could
not have even imagined." In fact, he admits, "it's probably already
too late to stop apocalyptic planetary warming." At this moment of
crisis, we must use our "human drive to make meaning…[it's] our
"only salvation." In "Arctic Ghosts," Scranton recounts a 2015
cruise he took in Canada. He writes about John Franklin's 1845
failed expedition to find the Northwest Passage. Today, his cruise
succeeded: "I was overtaken by the realization that what I'd come to
see was already gone." Our planet had warmed "beyond anything
civilization has ever seen." In "Rock Scissors Paper," which he
describes as a "Borgesian bastard," the author riffs about our new
geological epoch, the Anthropocene, "characterized by the advent of
the human species as a geological force." No one, he writes,
"intended this, and we seem to be incapable of preventing it." In
"Anthropocene City," Scranton chronicles his tour of heavily
polluted Galveston Bay, "so full of PCBs, pesticides, dioxin, and
petrochemicals that fishing is widely restricted." When he writes
about his personal involvement in war, it comes almost as a relief.
In the book's longest essay, the powerful "Back to Baghdad," he
returned as a journalist: "They stayed, I left. But while I may have
left Iraq, Iraq hadn't left me."<br>
Despite the inevitable repetitions, Scranton's warnings must be
heeded…again and again.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/roy-scranton/were-doomed-now-what/">https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/roy-scranton/were-doomed-now-what/</a></font><br>
[publisher]<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://sohopress.com/books/were-doomed-now-what/">https://sohopress.com/books/were-doomed-now-what/</a><br>
Roy Scranton video reading<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgx-yFczGjU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgx-yFczGjU</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/14/proved-undeveloped-reserves-sec-rule-change-risks-shale-fracking-pipelines">Why
It Matters If Fracking Companies Are Overestimating Their
'Proved' Oil and Gas Reserves</a></b><br>
By Sharon Kelly - Thursday, June 14, 2018<br>
Under the updated SEC rules, which went into effect in 2009,
drillers can count oil and gas from wells that won't be drilled or
fracked for up to five years as part of their proved reserves. Those
as-yet-untapped wells can be put on a company's books as a subset of
their "proved" reserves, listed under the label "proved undeveloped"
reserves.<br>
And drillers can count all of the oil and gas they expect to pump
out over the well's entire lifetime - before they've found out how
fast that well flows or seen a single drop of oil from it.<br>
Those "proved undeveloped reserves" (PUDs) now make up an average of
just over half of the proved oil reserves at 40 drilling companies
active in shale gas basins nationwide, according to SEC filings
reviewed by DeSmog. For drilling companies that are less heavily
involved in shale drilling, the average mix is roughly 30 percent
PUDs - similar to the industry's average before the SEC rule
change..<br>
- - - <br>
For years, the problem of reserves overbooking has been known in the
oil industry as "the problem no one wants to talk about."<br>
Oil companies have plenty of reasons to present the rosiest possible
picture of their future prospects, while Wall Street investment
analysts often focus on short-term prospects or compare companies
against their peers rather than scouting for industry-wide issues.
And once a loan is made, lenders have little incentive to question
whether collateral is as valuable as it was expected to be...<br>
- - - -<br>
When oil prices collapsed from over $90 per barrel (of West Texas
Intermediate crude) in 2014 to less than $50 in 2015, drillers had
to write down billions of barrels of proved reserves in what
Bloomberg called "a puff of accounting smoke."<br>
At that point, lenders faced an expensive dilemma - if they
foreclosed on loans to drillers, they would have to shoulder the
burden of actually drilling that oil or selling the acreage to
someone who could, all in a market where oil prices had plunged...<br>
- -- - - -<br>
She gave the example of Chesapeake Energy, one of the nation's
largest oil and gas drillers, which was heavily involved in the
shale rush.<br>
"In plain terms, in 2016 Chesapeake no longer had sufficient
collateral to back its loans … but the losses associated with
foreclosing were so high that the lenders cut the interest rate
coverage in half" and took other steps to bail Chesapeake out.
"Unfortunately, they are only one example of many in the industry
and many others have a much higher draw on borrowing bases that are
now not sufficiently collateralized."<br>
The oil and gas sector currently owes over $833 billion to lenders,
a May 31 analysis by Reuters found, and nearly half of that -
roughly $400 billion - is due to be paid off or refinanced by the
end of 2019.<br>
That means banks and drillers will be re-negotiating hundreds of
billions of dollars in loans relatively soon.<br>
Shale plays are notorious for having concentrated sweet spots, where
the best wells can be drilled, surrounded by larger areas that give
less bang for drillers' buck....<br>
- - - - <br>
"If we don't overbuild this time, it will be the first time in the
history of the industry. There's absolutely, we will overbuild,
there's no doubt about it," Wouter van Kempen, Chairman, President,
and CEO of DCP Midstream, said at an April 16 executive roundtable
at the GPA Midstream 2018 Convention...<br>
- - - <br>
"The question is when, and by how much, and I think what you heard
earlier from all of us here, none of us want to own that last gas
project, none of us want to own that last pipe because those are not
the ones you want to own."<br>
"We don't know what we're doing."<br>
Instead, the pipeline industry has sought to pass some of the risk
back to drillers through contracts that require payment even if
pipes go unused, explained Terry Spencer, President and CEO of
ONEOK, a natural gas infrastructure company.<br>
That strategy puts the hot potato right back into the hands of shale
drillers - and it turns out the drilling industry may be far less
prepared to handle that risk than their proved reserves figures
suggest.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/14/proved-undeveloped-reserves-sec-rule-change-risks-shale-fracking-pipelines">https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/14/proved-undeveloped-reserves-sec-rule-change-risks-shale-fracking-pipelines</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
GUEST POSTS 15 June 2018 <br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-global-warming-is-causing-ocean-oxygen-levels-to-fall">Guest
post: How global warming is causing ocean oxygen levels to fall</a></b><br>
Ocean oxygen loss is increasingly being recognised as a major threat
to marine ecosystems and shifting habitat conditions in many parts
of the global ocean.<br>
Deoxygenation feedbacks on climate via the production of potent
greenhouse gases such as N2O and methane under low-oxygen conditions
become more likely in a warmer climate. Therefore, it is essential
to resolve the discrepancy between observations and models, which
are ultimately required for reliable projections into the future.<br>
To close these gaps, we recommend more intensive and
internationally-coordinated ocean observations. We need
multidisciplinary process studies to better understand the delicate
balance of oxygenation and oxygen consumption in the dynamically
changing oceans.<br>
Research projects like our Kiel-based Collaborative Research Centre
SFB 754 Climate-Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean
and international initiatives such as the Global Ocean Oxygen
Network are helpful in moving the field forward.<br>
An improvement of the models in terms of the ocean oxygen budget
would have another advantage: oxygen is an ideal parameter for
calibrating models that calculate the uptake of CO2 by the ocean.
Thus, at the same time, we would improve our knowledge of the carbon
cycle.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-global-warming-is-causing-ocean-oxygen-levels-to-fall">https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-global-warming-is-causing-ocean-oxygen-levels-to-fall</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Sargasso Sea weed shore sludge]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/the-eastern-caribbean-is-swamped-by-a-surge-of-seaweed/">The
Eastern Caribbean Is Swamped by a Surge of Seaweed</a></b><br>
Massive rafts of floating sargassum are killing wildlife and
preventing fishers from launching their boats.<br>
by Ryan Schuessler <br>
June 11th, 2018 <br>
Barbados's Long Beach, typically a picturesque vision of white sand
and blue water, is buried beneath a vast expanse of thick, rotting
seaweed. It's a stinking nuisance that has turned deadly.<br>
"We have found three dolphins dead," says Carla Daniel, the director
of public awareness and education with the Barbados Sea Turtle
Project. Daniel and her colleagues believe the dolphins got caught
on June 4 in sargassum seaweed that has been washing up on Barbados
and across the eastern Caribbean in mounds up to two meters thick. A
necropsy of one dolphin revealed it died of stress.<br>
Seven endangered green sea turtles have also died so far. "For the
majority of animals, the sargassum can be a problem because it traps
them," Daniel says.<br>
Under normal conditions, floating sargassum is a thriving ecosystem.
It provides a vital habitat and food source in the open ocean for
fish, turtles, and crustaceans. There are even a handful of species
found only in floating sargassum mats, including the aptly-named
sargassum fish. But when it grows too thick, the seaweed clumps in
dense, tangled mats so expansive and impenetrable that sea turtles
and other surface-breathing animals can't break through.<br>
The current losses are reminiscent of 2015, when the worst sargassum
influx to date killed more than 40 green and hawksbill sea turtles,
their bodies found in the thick rafts of seaweed. "For an endangered
species, that's unacceptable," says Hazel Oxenford, a biologist at
the University of the West Indies in Barbados.<br>
But the current surge of seaweed is expected to be much worse than
the one in 2015. "You can see on the satellite that there's a lot
more coming," says Iris Monnereau, who works with the Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in Barbados.
Satellite observations show hundreds of thousands of square
kilometers of sargassum floating in the central Atlantic. The
challenge is in predicting where it will go next and where it might
reach land, a situation that causes a whole other set of
challenges....<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/the-eastern-caribbean-is-swamped-by-a-surge-of-seaweed/">https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/the-eastern-caribbean-is-swamped-by-a-surge-of-seaweed/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lmeJaKZwHI&sns=em">This
Day in Climate History - June 16, 2008</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
June 16, 2008: Former Vice President Al Gore endorses Illinois
Senator Barack Obama for president.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lmeJaKZwHI&sns=em">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lmeJaKZwHI&sns=em</a>
</font><br>
<br>
<br>
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