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<font size="+1"><i>June 19, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[So just when is the perfect time to sell?]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/17/sea-level-rise-impact-us-coastal-homes-study-climate-change">Flooding
from sea level rise threatens over 300,000 US coastal homes -
study</a></b><br>
Climate change study predicts 'staggering impact' of swelling oceans
on coastal communities within next 30 years<br>
Sea level rise<span> </span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/feb/27/scientists-have-detected-an-acceleration-in-sea-level-rise"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">driven by climate change</a><span> </span>is
set to pose an existential crisis to many US coastal communities,
with new research finding that as many as 311,000 homes face being
flooded every two weeks within the next 30 years.<br>
The swelling oceans<span> </span><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2017/mar/20/sea-level-rise-miami-and-atlantic-city-fight-to-stay-above-water-video"
data-link-name="in body link" class="u-underline"
style="background: transparent; touch-action: manipulation; color:
rgb(136, 1, 5); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none !important;
border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid rgb(220, 220, 220); transition:
border-color 0.15s ease-out;">are forecast repeatedly</a><span> </span>to
soak coastal residences collectively worth $120bn by 2045 if
greenhouse gas emissions are not severely curtailed, experts warn.
This will potentially inflict a huge financial and emotional toll on
the half a million Americans who live in the properties at risk of
having their basements, backyards, garages or living rooms inundated
every other week...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/17/sea-level-rise-impact-us-coastal-homes-study-climate-change">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/17/sea-level-rise-impact-us-coastal-homes-study-climate-change</a></font><br>
[Bloomberg says]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-climate-change-home-sales/">Climate
Change May Already Be Hitting the Housing Market</a></b><br>
By Christopher Flavelle and Allison McCartney<br>
June 18, 2018<br>
Even as President Donald Trump downplays the importance of climate
change, there are signs that Americans may be taking it more
seriously-at least when it comes to buying a house.<br>
Between 2007 and 2017, average home prices in areas facing the
lowest risk of flooding, hurricanes and wildfires have far outpaced
those with the greatest risk, according to figures compiled for
Bloomberg News by Attom Data Solutions, a curator of national
property data. Homes in areas most exposed to flood and hurricane
risk were worth less last year, on average, than a decade earlier.<br>
Attom Data looked at the annual change in home prices and sales
across 3,397 cities around the country, then divided those cities
into five groups based on their exposure to various types of natural
disasters. What they found suggests the threats of climate change
are beginning to register.<br>
On average, home prices across the cities analyzed by Attom Data
increased 7.3 percent between 2007 and 2017. That figure masks deep
drops in vulnerable areas...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-climate-change-home-sales/">https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-climate-change-home-sales/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Great explanations - <a
href="https://youtu.be/wtmuBoolHQg?t=59m39s">her quintessential
statement</a> is at 59m39s]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtmuBoolHQg">Jennifer
Francis: Crazy Weather and the Arctic Meltdown</a></b><br>
New England Aquarium - Video 66 minutes <br>
Published on Mar 8, 2018<br>
Jennifer Francis, Ph.D., Research Professor I, Department of Marine
and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, speaks about the question
on everyone's minds: why is the weather so crazy? And is it related
to climate change? <br>
In this presentation, Dr. Francis will explain new research that
links increasing extreme weather events with the rapidly warming and
melting Arctic during recent decades. Evidence suggests that Arctic
warming is causing weather patterns to become more persistent, which
can lead to extremes such as droughts, cold spells, heat waves, and
some flooding events.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtmuBoolHQg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtmuBoolHQg</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Dave Roberts comments]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/8/17437104/climate-change-global-warming-models-risks">We
are almost certainly underestimating the economic risks of
climate change</a></b><br>
The models that inform climate policymaking are fatally flawed.<br>
By David <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="mailto:Roberts@drvoxdavid@vox.com">Roberts@drvoxdavid@vox.com</a>
Updated Jun 9, 2018, 7:24am EDT<br>
One of the more vexing aspects of climate change politics and policy
is the longstanding gap between the models that project the physical
effects of global warming and those that project the economic
impacts. In a nutshell, even as the former deliver worse and worse
news, especially about a temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius or
more, the latter remain placid.<br>
The famous DICE model created by Yale's William Nordhaus shows that
a 6-degree rise in global average temperature - which the physical
sciences characterize as an unlivable hellscape - would only dent
global GDP by 10 percent.<br>
Projections of modest economic impacts from even the most severe
climate change affect climate politics in a number of ways. For one
thing, they inform policy goals like those President Obama offered
in Paris, restraining their ambition. For another, they fuel the
arguments of "lukewarmers," those who say that the climate is
warming but it's not that big a problem. (Lukewarmism is the public
stance of most Trump Cabinet members.)<br>
Climate hawks have long had the strong instinct that it's the
economic models, not the physical-science models, that are missing
something - that the current expert consensus about climate economic
damages is far too sanguine - but they often lack the vocabulary to
do any more than insist.<br>
As it happens, that vocabulary exists. At this point, there is a
fairly rich literature on the shortcomings of the climate-economic
models upon which so much political weight rests....<br>
- - - - <br>
The IPCC is working on its next big report and still using models
that underestimate economic damages<br>
The second paper, in Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,
makes the same point - commonly used models are underestimating the
economic impacts of climate change - in a slightly different way, to
a different audience.<br>
The audience in this case is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), which is preparing to pull together its Sixth
Assessment Report, to be released over 2021 and 2022. IPCC
assessment reports are hugely influential in global policymaking.<br>
The models typically used to estimate effects are integrated
assessment models (IAMs), using an "expected utility function" -
that is, they add up effects based on their probability of
occurring. Such models are "integrated" in that they include
economic and climate models in interaction. The economy produces
emissions, which feed into the climate models, which produce
effects, which are applied as a "damage function" to the economic
models...<br>
- - - - -<br>
There's a lot of technical mumbo-jumbo flying around in these
conversations about models, so it's important to step back and
recall the point of all this.<br>
Policymakers want to know how much climate change will hurt the
economy. They want to know how much policies to fight climate change
will cost. Models provide them with answers. Right now, models are
(inaccurately) telling them that damage costs will be low and policy
costs will be high.<br>
Political mobilization on climate change is going to fight a
headwind as long as policymakers are getting those answers from
models.<br>
We need models that negatively weigh uncertainty, properly account
for tipping points, incorporate more robust and current technology
cost data, better differentiate sectors outside electricity,
rigorously price energy efficiency, and include the social and
health benefits of decarbonization.<br>
One, such models would be more accurate, better at their task of
informing policymakers. And two, they would justify far more policy
and investment to fight climate change than has been seen to date in
the US or any other major economy. We shouldn't let the blind spots
and shortcomings of current models undermine political ambition.<br>
Save the models, save the world.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/8/17437104/climate-change-global-warming-models-risks">https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/8/17437104/climate-change-global-warming-models-risks</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Air Quality Index is like the Heat Index, but for Ozone]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=pubs.aqiguideozone">Air
Quality Guide for Ozone</a></b> <br>
Ground-level ozone is one of our nation's most common air
pollutants. Use the chart below to help reduce your exposure and
protect your health. For your local air quality, visit <a
class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.airnow.gov">www.airnow.gov</a><br>
view it at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=pubs.aqiguideozone">https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=pubs.aqiguideozone</a><br>
- - - -<br>
[Greensboro, North Carolina]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/weather/heat-and-humidity-make-it-feel-like-100-this-week/83-565183073">Heat
and Humidity Make it Feel Like 100 degrees This Week</a></b><br>
WFMYNews2.com-1<br>
Keep in mind, air quality remains poor with high levels of ozone. A
Code Orange Air Quality Alert... A classic summer heatwave will be
hitting the Piedmont this week. Temperatures will combine with
humidity to not only make it uncomfortable, but potentially
dangerous at times. Make sure to stay hydrated and limit outdoor
activity during the hottest part of the day.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/weather/heat-and-humidity-make-it-feel-like-100-this-week/83-565183073">https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/weather/heat-and-humidity-make-it-feel-like-100-this-week/83-565183073</a></font><br>
- - -<br>
[academic study misses publication]<br>
<b>Analysis of the Relationship between Ozone Pollution,
Temperature, and Human Health</b><br>
Institution: Yale University <br>
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek <br>
Project Period: September 1, 2007 through September 1, 2010 <br>
Objective:<br>
Recent research has linked both extreme temperatures and elevated
ozone pollution to increased risk of mortality. However, several
critical questions regarding these relationships still remain. There
is little understanding regarding how temperature-mortality varies
by region and by factors such as air conditioning use and sensitive
subpopulations. Further, potential confounding by pollution has not
been addressed on a national scale. Ozone levels are higher during
days with high temperatures, so some of the excess mortality
currently attributed to high temperatures could be related to ozone.<br>
Additionally, while ozone pollution and extreme temperatures are
both related to excess mortality, it is not yet known how much life
expectancy is lost as a result of these factors. Analysis of the
importance of short-term mortality displacement for ozone and
temperature will enable decision-makers to more effectively address
the public health burden of weather and ozone pollution. Also, since
both extreme temperatures and ozone pollution are anticipated to
rise, on average, with climatic change, an understanding of these
relationships will benefit research on the potential health
consequences of climate change.<br>
{EPA no longer makes a final report available}<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncer_abstracts/index.cfm/fuseaction/display.highlight/abstract/8559">https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncer_abstracts/index.cfm/fuseaction/display.highlight/abstract/8559</a><br>
- - - - -<br>
[Ozone harms - TIME magazine]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://science.time.com/2011/07/22/why-bad-heatbad-air/">Why
Big Heat = Bad Air</a></b><br>
By Bryan Walsh - Time - July 22, 2011<br>
It's a little confusing. Isn't ozone a good thing, keeping us safe
from ultraviolet rays? It is-but only when that ozone is high in the
stratosphere. Closer to the ground, where we actually breathe, ozone
is real health threat, especially for children, the elderly and
those with respiratory problems. Asthma victims can be particularly
sensitive-while air pollution doesn't necessarily cause asthma, it
can certainly make life hell for those who suffer from it. Other
studies indicate that long-term exposure to ozone in childhood can
lead to decreased lung function as an adult, and ozone also leads to
an estimated $500 million in crop losses each year as well. Ozone
actually seems to restrict breathing pathways, as the EPA points out
in a guide:<br>
<blockquote>The major effect is thus restrictive rather than
obstructive in nature and reflects itself in decreases in forced
vital capacity (FVC), FEV1 and other spirometric measures that
require a full inspiration. Observed changes in breathing pattern
to one with more rapid shallow breathing may also be a
manifestation of C-fiber stimulation and may be a protective
response to limit penetration of ozone deep into the respiratory
tract. It is likely that these lung function changes and
respiratory symptoms are responsible for observations that
short-term ozone exposure limits maximal exercise capability.<br>
</blockquote>
You can also see ozone in a way that you can't for many other air
pollutants. That hazy hot sky above cities like New York and
Washington is due to ozone-related smog.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://science.time.com/2011/07/22/why-bad-heatbad-air/">http://science.time.com/2011/07/22/why-bad-heatbad-air/</a></font><br>
- - - - <br>
[High heat suppresses ozone]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/04/the-complex-relationship-between-heat-and-ozone/">The
complex relationship between heat and ozone</a></b><br>
Unhealthy ozone days could increase by more than a week in coming
decades<br>
"Short-term exposure to ozone has been linked to adverse health
effects," said Loretta J. Mickley, a co-author of the study. "High
levels of ozone can exacerbate chronic lung disease and even
increase mortality rates."<br>
While temperature has long been known as an important driver of
ozone episodes, it's been unclear how increasing global temperatures
will impact the severity and frequency of surface level ozone.<br>
To address this question, Shen and Mickley - with co-author Eric
Gilleland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) -
developed a model that used observed relationships between
temperature and ozone to predict future ozone episodes.<br>
Previous research had not relied so heavily on existing
observations, making projections uncertain. Shen and co-authors
analyzed ozone-temperature relationships at measurement sites across
the United States, and found them surprisingly complex.<br>
"Typically, when the temperature increases, so does surface ozone,"
said Mickley.<br>
"Ozone production accelerates at high temperatures, and emissions of
the natural components of ozone increase. High temperatures are also
accompanied by weak winds, causing the atmosphere to stagnate. So
the air just cooks and ozone levels can build up."<br>
However, at extremely high temperatures - beginning in the mid-90s
Fahrenheit - ozone levels at many sites stop rising with
temperature.<b> The phenomenon, previously observed only in
California, is known as ozone suppression.</b><br>
In order to better predict future ozone episodes, the team set out
to find evidence of ozone suppression outside of California and test
whether or not the phenomenon was actually caused by chemistry.<br>
They found that 20 percent of measurement sites in the United States
show ozone suppression at extremely high temperatures. Their results
called into question the prevailing view that the phenomenon is
caused by complex atmospheric chemistry.<br>
"Rather than being caused by chemistry, we found that this dropping
off of ozone levels is actually caused by meteorology," said Shen.
"Typically, ozone is tightly correlated with temperature, which in
turn is tightly correlated with other meteorological variables such
as solar radiation, circulation, and atmospheric stagnation. But at
extreme temperatures, these relationships break down."<font
size="-1">..<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/04/the-complex-relationship-between-heat-and-ozone/">https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/04/the-complex-relationship-between-heat-and-ozone/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[30 years ago into today]<br>
<b><a
href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/global-warming-cooks-world-decades-55968921">Global
Warming Cooks Up 'A Different World' Over Three Decades</a></b><br>
We were warned.<br>
On June 23, 1988, a sultry day in Washington, James Hansen told
Congress and the world that global warming wasn't approaching - it
had already arrived. The testimony of the top NASA scientist, said
Rice University historian Douglas Brinkley, was "the opening salvo
of the age of climate change."<br>
Thirty years later, it's clear that Hansen and other doomsayers were
right. But the change has been so sweeping that it is easy to lose
sight of effects large and small - some obvious, others less
conspicuous.<br>
Earth is noticeably hotter, the weather stormier and more extreme.
Polar regions have lost billions of tons of ice; sea levels have
been raised by trillions of gallons of water. Far more wildfires
rage...<br>
- - - -<br>
"The biggest change over the last 30 years, which is most of my
life, is that we're no longer thinking just about the future," said
Kathie Dello, a climate scientist at Oregon State University in
Corvallis. "Climate change is here, it's now and it's hitting us
hard from all sides."<br>
Warming hasn't been just global, it's been all too local. According
to an Associated Press statistical analysis of 30 years of weather,
ice, fire, ocean, biological and other data, every single one of the
344 climate divisions in the Lower 48 states - NOAA groupings of
counties with similar weather - has warmed significantly, as has
each of 188 cities examined....<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/global-warming-cooks-world-decades-55968921">https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/global-warming-cooks-world-decades-55968921</a></font><br>
<b>- - - -<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.usnews.com/news/news/articles/2018-06-18/james-hansen-wishes-he-wasnt-so-right-about-global-warming">James
Hansen Wishes He Wasn't So Right About Global Warming</a></b><br>
Thirty years after his historic testimony saying global warming is
here and a problem, scientist James Hansen wishes he was wrong about
climate change.<br>
BY SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer<br>
NEW YORK (AP) - James Hansen wishes he was wrong. He wasn't.<br>
NASA's top climate scientist in 1988, Hansen warned the world on a
record hot June day 30 years ago that global warming was here and
worsening. In a scientific study that came out a couple months
later, he even forecast how warm it would get, depending on
emissions of heat-trapping gases.<br>
The hotter world that Hansen envisioned in 1988 has pretty much come
true so far, more or less. Three decades later, most climate
scientists interviewed rave about the accuracy of Hansen's
predictions given the technology of the time.<br>
Hansen won't say, "I told you so."<br>
"I don't want to be right in that sense," Hansen told The Associated
Press, in an interview is his New York penthouse apartment. That's
because being right means the world is warming at an unprecedented
pace and ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland are melting.<br>
Hansen said what he really wishes happened is "that the warning be
heeded and actions be taken."<br>
They weren't. Hansen, now 77, regrets not being "able to make this
story clear enough for the public."<br>
Global warming was not what Hansen set out to study when he joined
NASA in 1972. The Iowa native studied Venus - a planet with a
runaway greenhouse-effect run - when he got interested in Earth's
ozone hole. As he created computer simulations, he realized that
"this planet was more interesting than Venus." And more important.<br>
In his 1988 study, Hansen and colleagues used three different
scenarios for emissions of heat-trapping gases - high, low and
medium. Hansen and other scientists concentrated on the middle
scenario.<br>
Hansen projected that by 2017, the globe's five-year average
temperature would be about 1.85 degrees (1.03 degree Celsius) higher
than the 1950 to 1980 NASA-calculated average. NASA's five-year
average global temperature ending in 2017 was 1.48 degrees above the
30-year average. (He did not take into account that the sun would be
cooling a tad, which would reduce warming nearly two-tenths of a
degree Fahrenheit, said the Scripps Institution of Oceanography's
Jeff Severinghaus.)<br>
Hansen also predicted a certain number of days of extreme weather -
temperature above 95 degrees, freezing days, and nights when the
temperatures that don't drop below 75 - per year for four U.S.
cities in the decade of the 2010s.<br>
Hansen's forecast generally underestimated this decade's warming in
Washington, overestimated it in Omaha, was about right in New York
and mixed in Memphis.<br>
Clara Deser, climate analysis chief at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, said Hansen's global temperature forecast was
"incredible" and his extremes for the cities were "astounding" in
their accuracy. Berkeley Earth's Zeke Hausfather gives Hansen's
predictions a 7 or 8 for accuracy, out of 10; he said Hansen
calculated that the climate would respond a bit more to carbon
dioxide than scientists now think.<br>
University of Alabama Huntsville's John Christy, a favorite of those
who downplay climate change, disagreed. Using mathematical formulas
to examine Hansen's projections, he concluded: "Hansen's predictions
were wrong as demonstrated by hypothesis testing."<br>
Hansen had testified before Congress on climate change at a fall
1987 hearing that didn't get much attention - likely because it was
a cool day, he figured.<br>
So the next hearing was scheduled for the next summer, and the
weather added heat to Hansen's words. At 2 p.m., the temperature hit
a record high 98 degrees and felt like 102.<br>
It was then and there that Hansen went out on a limb and proclaimed
that global warming was already here. Until then most scientists
merely warned of future warming.<br>
He left NASA in 2013, devoting more time to what he calls his
"anti-government job" of advocacy.<br>
Hansen, still at Columbia University, has been arrested five times
for environmental protests. Each time, he hoped to go to trial "to
draw attention to the issues" but the cases were dropped. He writes
about saving the planet for his grandchildren, including one who is
suing the federal government over global warming inaction. His
advocacy has been criticized by scientific colleagues, but he makes
no apologies.<br>
"If scientists are not allowed to talk about the policy implications
of the science, who is going to do that? People with financial
interests?" Hansen asked.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.usnews.com/news/news/articles/2018-06-18/james-hansen-wishes-he-wasnt-so-right-about-global-warming">https://www.usnews.com/news/news/articles/2018-06-18/james-hansen-wishes-he-wasnt-so-right-about-global-warming</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/19/us/report-by-epa-leaves-out-data-on-climate-change.html">This
Day in Climate History - June 19, 2003</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
June 19, 2003: The New York Times reports:<br>
"The Environmental Protection Agency is preparing to publish a draft
report next week on the state of the environment, but after editing
by the White House, a long section describing risks from rising
global temperatures has been whittled to a few noncommittal
paragraphs."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/19/us/report-by-epa-leaves-out-data-on-climate-change.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/19/us/report-by-epa-leaves-out-data-on-climate-change.html</a>
</font><br>
<br>
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