<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8">
</head>
<body text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<font size="+1"><i>July 6, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[everywhere]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heatwave-2018-think-it-s-hot-here-record-highs-leave-world-baking-nn0rd8cq9">Heatwave
2018: Think it's hot here? Record highs leave world baking</a></b><br>
Temperature records are being broken in a heatwave enveloping the
northern hemisphere that has put Britain on course for its longest
spell of hot weather for 42 years.<br>
The world's highest sustained temperature in a 24-hour period was
recorded at the end of last month when residents of Quriyat, Oman,
endured a minimum of 42.6C (108.7F).<br>
North America and Asia are also sweltering under intense heat.
Denver reached 40.6C, which equalled the American city's hottest
day. Temperatures in Ahvaz, Iran, reached 54C, the highest the
country has experienced.<br>
The heatwave is coinciding with record temperatures in Britain. In
the past week cities in Scotland and Ireland have recorded new
highs. In Glasgow temperatures of 31.9C melted the "weatherproof"
material on the roof of its Science Centre. Belfast reached a record
of 29.5C.<br>
Forecasters said that the hot spell in Britain was set to match that
of 1976, when temperatures reached at least 28C for 16 consecutive
days. Meteorologists expect a cooler end to this week, but only by a
couple of degrees. "The long-range trend is for above-average
temperatures staying until the end of July," Emma Salter, a
meteorologist, said.<font size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heatwave-2018-think-it-s-hot-here-record-highs-leave-world-baking-nn0rd8cq9">https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heatwave-2018-think-it-s-hot-here-record-highs-leave-world-baking-nn0rd8cq9</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Changes at EPA]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-07-05-scott-pruitt-epa-chief-administrator-resigns">EPA
Chief Scott Pruitt Resigns</a></b><br>
By weather.com<br>
In a tweet Thursday afternoon, President Donald Trump said he had
accepted the resignation of the beleaguered EPA chief.<br>
It was not immediately clear how the resignation might affect
ongoing ethics investigations of Pruitt.<br>
EPA deputy Andrew Wheeler will assume duties as the acting
administrator of the EPA.<br>
- - - -<br>
In recent weeks, Pruitt has come under increasing scrutiny for
numerous scandals that include spending behaviors, allegations that
he rented a Capitol Hill condominium linked to an energy lobbyist
and a CNN report released this week that accuses the chief of using
"secret" calendars and schedules to hide controversial meetings with
industry players.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-07-05-scott-pruitt-epa-chief-administrator-resigns">https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-07-05-scott-pruitt-epa-chief-administrator-resigns</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[Opinion]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/07/05/scott-pruitt-is-out-far-too-late/?utm_term=.8ef5c4623888">Scott
Pruitt is out, far too late</a></b><br>
Jennifer Rubin<br>
The most dishonest and corrupt administration in about a century is
only marginally improved by the departure of Pruitt. Only with
serious oversight (which likely will come only from a Democratic
majority in one or both houses) can we hope to fumigate the
administration. In the meantime, Congress needs to beef up ethics
reporting and enforcement, make disclosure of the president's tax
returns mandatory and stiffen penalties for violations of ethics
rules. Only then will we restore a modicum of normalcy to the
government, which has come to resemble a corrupt banana republic.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/07/05/scott-pruitt-is-out-far-too-late/?utm_term=.8ef5c4623888">https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/07/05/scott-pruitt-is-out-far-too-late/?utm_term=.8ef5c4623888</a></font><br>
- - - - <br>
[Replacement - who is Andrew Wheeler?]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/andrew-wheeler">Andrew Wheeler
- Credentials - Background</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/andrew-wheeler">https://www.desmogblog.com/andrew-wheeler</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[In the Arctic, just above Norway]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/07/northern-barents-sea-warms-dramatically">Northern
Barents Sea warms dramatically</a></b><br>
Scientists link the sharp increase in ocean temperature to a recent
decline in sea-ice import. Around Svalbard, this July is worst ever
in times of records.<br>
By Thomas Nilsen - July 05, 2018<br>
The northern Barents Sea is an Arctic warming hotspot, says Sigrid
Lind with the Marine Research Institute in Tromsø, Norway. The
changes go from Arctic to Atlantic climate, concludes a study Lind
and other scientists have made. The results are published in a
recent article in Nature.<br>
- - - - - - <br>
Thus, the northern Barents Sea may soon complete the transition from
a cold Arctic to a warm and well-mixed Atlantic dominated climate
regime. In fact, the entire Barents Sea will be ice-free
year-around.<br>
"Such a shift would have unknown consequences for the Barents Sea
ecosystem," Lind says.<br>
What happens now due to climate changes is a self-reinforcing cycle.
The climate tipping point for Arctic sea-ice might already been past
since the Barents Sea acts like a buffer between the Arctic Ocean
and the North-Atlantic. Warm Atlantic water will no longer be
pressed deeper by freshwater around Svalbard because the fresh water
floating south from sea-ice disappears, and with the salter Atlantic
water sea-ice formation will decrease. Sea-ice has been the most
important source of fresh water to the northern Barents Sea.<br>
- - - - -<br>
Further north, and around the archipelago, the ice chart for July
4th shows 183,751 square kilometers of ice. This is 131,416 square
kilometers below the 1981-2010 average.<br>
Only some few spots with very open drift ice can be seen. From north
of Svalbard up to 82 degrees, it is today possible to sail all east
to the west coast of Franz Josef Land before meeting sea-ice.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/07/northern-barents-sea-warms-dramatically">https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/07/northern-barents-sea-warms-dramatically</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Understanding Climate Models]<br>
Video 4 mins <br>
<b><a href="https://youtu.be/WdRiYPJLt4o">A Short Introduction to
Climate Models - CMIP & CMIP6</a></b><br>
World Climate Research Programme<br>
Published on Jun 21, 2017<br>
As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
organized under the auspices of the World Climate Research
Programme's (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) many
hundreds of climate researchers, working with modeling centres
around the world, will share, compare and analyze the latest
outcomes of global climate models. These model products will fuel
climate research for the next 5 to 10 years, while its careful
analysis will form the basis for future climate assessments and
negotiations.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/WdRiYPJLt4o">https://youtu.be/WdRiYPJLt4o</a><br>
- - - - - - -<br>
</font><b>"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the
future." - Yogi Berra</b><font size="-1"><br>
</font>- - - - -<br>
[advanced college level studies - a worthwhile video 15 mins]<br>
<b><a href="https://youtu.be/XGi2a0tNjOo">5.1 Introduction to
Climate Modeling</a></b><br>
Climate Literacy<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/XGi2a0tNjOo">https://youtu.be/XGi2a0tNjOo</a><br>
- - - - - -<br>
[from RealClimate.org, independence movements in climate modeling]<br>
<b><a
href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/07/model-independence-day/">Model
Independence Day</a></b><br>
Filed under: Climate modelling Climate Science IPCC statistics -
gavin @ 4 July 2018<br>
<blockquote>We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models
are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creators with
certain unalienable Rights, that among these are a DOI, Runability
and Inclusion in the CMIP ensemble mean.<br>
</blockquote>
Well, not quite. But it is Independence Day in the US, and
coincidentally there is a new discussion paper (Abramowitz et al)
(direct link) posted on model independence just posted at Earth
System Dynamics.<br>
What does anyone mean by model independence? In the international
coordinated efforts to assess climate model skill (such as the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), multiple groups from around
the world submit their model results from specified experiments to a
joint archive. The basic idea is that if different models from
different groups agree on a result, then that result is likely to be
robust based on the (shared) fundamental understanding of the
climate system despite the structural uncertainty in modeling the
climate. But there are two very obvious ways in which this ideal is
not met in practice.<br>
First, if the models are actually the same, then it's totally
unsurprising that a result might be common between them. One of the
two models would be redundant and add nothing to our knowledge of
structural uncertainties.<br>
Second, the models might well be totally independent in formulation,
history and usage, but the two models share a common, but
fallacious, assumption about the real world. Then a common result
might reflect that shared error, and not reflect anything about the
real world at all.<br>
These two issues are also closely tied to the problem of model
selection. Given an ensemble of models, that have varied levels of
skill across any number of metrics, is there a subset or weighting
of models that could be expected to give the most skillful
predictions? And if so, how would you demonstrate that?<br>
These problems have been considered (within the climate realm) since
the beginnings of the "MIP" process in the 1990s, but they are
(perhaps surprisingly) very tough to deal with...<br>
<blockquote>video: Reto Knutti: Mysterious Models and Enigmatic
Ensembles<br>
Rotman Institute of Philosophy - Published on Mar 18, 2015<br>
As our understanding improves, more observations become available,
and computational capacity increases, climate models continue to
in - crease in complexity to synthesize all that knowledge. The
hope is that as more and more processes are considered at greater
realism and higher resolution, the models will converge to
reality. But do they really, how do we know, and indeed should
they? What is the purpose of current global climate models? Are
they built to understand processes, to quantify past changes, or
to predict the future, and do all of those require the same
models? Uncertainty in climate projections is difficult to
quantify, and has not decreased significantly in the past few
years, partly as a result of irreducible climate variability.
Progress in model evaluation as well as statistical methods to
interpret and combine model projections is urgently needed, in
particular as more models of different quality and higher
complexity, including perturbed physics ensembles and ensembles
with structurally different models become available.<br>
Reto Knutti, ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate
Science<br>
2014 Annual Rotman Conference<br>
Knowledge and Models in Climate Science: Philosophical, Historical
& Scientific Perspectives<br>
October 24 - 26, 2014<br>
</blockquote>
...a joint declaration of some sort is probably a little optimistic…<br>
<blockquote>We, therefore, the Representatives of the united
Modelling Groups of the World, in AGU Congress, Assembled,
appealing to the Supreme Judge of the model ensemble for the
rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of
the good People of these modeling Centers, solemnly publish and
declare, That these disparate Models are, and of Right ought to be
Free and Independent Codes, that they are Absolved from all
Allegiance to NCAR, GFDL and Arakawa, and that all algorithmic
connection between them and the Met Office of Great Britain, is
and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and
Independent Models, they have full Power to run Simulations,
conclude Papers, contract Intercomparison Projects, establish
Shared Protocols, and to do all other Acts and Things which
Independent Models may of right do. - And for the support of
this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine
PCMDI, we mutually pledge to each other our Working Lives, our Git
Repositories, and our sacred H-Index.<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/07/model-independence-day/">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/07/model-independence-day/</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[Naomi Oreskes called it the Complexity Paradox]<br>
<a
href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261947872_The_Role_of_Quantitative_Models_in_Science_Naomi_Oreskes">The
Role of Quantitative Models in Science Naomi Oreskes</a><br>
<blockquote>... Barlas (2007) noted that novice modelers tend to
build big models to address big issues.<b> There is more intuitive
faith in complex models because they allow us to simulate more
processes ( Oreskes, 2003). However, as more processes and
parameters are added to a model, the overall certainty of its
predictions might decrease</b>.<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261947872_The_Role_of_Quantitative_Models_in_Science_Naomi_Oreskes">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261947872_The_Role_of_Quantitative_Models_in_Science_Naomi_Oreskes</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[a very big deal - overlooked by mass media news]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/07/02/rhode-island-climate-liability-suit/">Rhode
Island Becomes First State to File Climate Suit Vs. Oil
Companies</a></b><br>
After the first major setback to climate liability litigation came
last week at the hands of a federal judge, many figured (and the
fossil fuel companies hoped) it would discourage other communities
from filing similar suits. Not only did Rhode Island turn that idea
on its ear this week by becoming the first state to sue Big Oil for
climate impacts, it did so with great 'little guy' flair. State
Attorney General Peter Kilmartin reveled in being the tiny state
suing a big, powerful industry. "Back when Sen. Whitehouse was
Attorney General, critics said the same thing about pursuing Big
Tobacco," Kilmartin said. "That they would crush the states and
never be held accountable for the harms they caused. The critics
were wrong then, and they will be wrong this time." Notably, Rhode
Island filed in state court, the avenue most legal experts say
provides the best opportunity for success.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/07/02/rhode-island-climate-liability-suit/">https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/07/02/rhode-island-climate-liability-suit/</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[International legal actions]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/04/uk-judge-postpones-decision-landmark-climate-case/">UK
judge postpones decision on landmark climate case</a></b><br>
Published on 04/07/2018<br>
The high court in London has postponed its decision on whether 11
citizens can bring their complaint that the UK's climate targets
need to be changed before the full court...<br>
Climate legal group Plan B and the 11 plaintiffs brought the case to
try to compel Greg Clark, secretary of state for business, energy
and industrial strategy (Beis), to increase the ambition of the UK's
2050 carbon target.<br>
"The UK is not doing enough," Tim Crosland, director of Plan B told
Climate Home News. "The benchmark target is now out of place. We are
arguing that it is a breach of human rights."...<br>
The UK has recently lost <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/21/high-court-rules-uk-air-pollution-plans-unlawful">several
High Court battles</a> over the adequacy of its plans to fight air
pollution.<br>
The judge at Wednesday's permission hearing, Michael Supperstone,
did not say when he would make his decision.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/04/uk-judge-postpones-decision-landmark-climate-case/">http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/04/uk-judge-postpones-decision-landmark-climate-case/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Aussie Sarcasm: Video Ads for Honest Government]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuQZ6rALub8">Honest
Government Ad - Visit the Northern Territory</a></b>!<br>
thejuicemedia<br>
Published on Jul 4, 2018<br>
The Australien Government has made a tourism ad for the Northern
Territory and it's surprisingly honest and informative.<br>
Tell gas companies to get the frack out of the NT: <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://dontfracktheterritory.lockthegate.org.au/frack_free_nt_petition">https://dontfracktheterritory.lockthegate.org.au/frack_free_nt_petition</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuQZ6rALub8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuQZ6rALub8</a><br>
<br>
</font> <br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html">This
Day in Climate History - July 6, 2010 </a>- from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
July 6, 2010: Washington Post writer Ezra Klein observes:<br>
<blockquote>"There's a range of likely outcomes from a tax on
carbon, and we can handle most of them. There's also a range of
outcomes from radical changes in the planet's climate, and we've
really no idea which we can handle, and which we can't. We don't
even really know what that range looks like. And although a tax
can be undone or reformed, there's no guarantee that we can
reverse hundreds of years of rapid greenhouse gas buildup in the
atmosphere. If you want proof, look at our inability to deal with
an underwater oil spill, and consider how much more experience we
have repairing oil rigs than reversing concentrations of gases in
the atmosphere.<br>
<br>
"One of the oddities of the global warming debate, in fact, is
that the side that's usually skeptical of government intervention
is potentially setting up a future in which the government is
intervening on a planetary scale. I don't think of myself as
particularly skeptical of the feds, but I'm a lot more comfortable
with their ability to levy a tax than their capacity to reform the
atmosphere. That's why, when faced with the choice between being
risk averse about a tax or about the planet, I tend to choose the
planet."<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html">http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><i>-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
</i></font><font size="+1"><i><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html">Archive
of Daily Global Warming News</a> </i></font><i><br>
</i><span class="moz-txt-link-freetext"><a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote">https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote</a></span><font
size="+1"><i><font size="+1"><i><br>
</i></font></i></font><font size="+1"><i> <br>
</i></font><font size="+1"><i><font size="+1"><i>To receive daily
mailings - <a
href="mailto:subscribe@theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request">click
to Subscribe</a> </i></font>to news digest. </i></font>
<blockquote>
<blockquote><small> </small><small><b>** Privacy and Security: </b>
This is a text-only mailing that carries no images which may
originate from remote servers. </small><small> Text-only
messages provide greater privacy to the receiver and sender.
</small><small> </small><br>
<small> By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain must be used
for democratic and election purposes and cannot be used for
commercial purposes. </small><br>
<small>To subscribe, email: <a
class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="mailto:contact@theclimate.vote">contact@theclimate.vote</a>
with subject: subscribe, To Unsubscribe, subject:
unsubscribe</small><br>
<small> Also you</small><font size="-1"> may
subscribe/unsubscribe at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote">https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote</a></font><small>
</small><br>
<small> </small><small>Links and headlines assembled and
curated by Richard Pauli</small><small> for <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://TheClimate.Vote">http://TheClimate.Vote</a>
delivering succinct information for citizens and responsible
governments of all levels.</small><small> L</small><small>ist
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously
restricted to this mailing list. <br>
</small></blockquote>
</blockquote>
</body>
</html>