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<font size="+1"><i>July 19, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[Active Wildfires]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/latest-fire-knocks-power-oregon-blaze-56676314">The
Latest: Oregon wildfire grows to 70 square miles</a></b><br>
A wind-whipped wildfire that started Tuesday in a rural farming area
east of Portland, Oregon, has now burned 70 square miles (181
kilometers) and prompted additional evacuations.<br>
Substation fire spokesman Stefan Myers said Wednesday evening that
strong winds were continuing to push the blaze, prompting
evacuations farther east.<br>
The blaze is burning along the Columbia River Gorge about 85 miles
(137 kilometers) east of Portland.<br>
Myers says firefighters were focused on protecting homes and lives
and that additional fire crews were headed to the area.<br>
The Oregon Department of Transportation closed Highway 97 late
Wednesday afternoon from the Biggs Junction to the interchange with
Highway 197 because of the fire...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/latest-fire-knocks-power-oregon-blaze-56676314">https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/latest-fire-knocks-power-oregon-blaze-56676314</a></font><br>
- - - - <br>
[Fast action]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2018/07/governor_declares_statewide_wi.html">Gov.
Brown declares statewide wildfire emergency</a></b><br>
Gov. Kate Brown declared a statewide wildfire emergency, activating
a standing agreement with the Oregon National Guard - Operation Plan
Smokey - that makes helicopters and troops available to fight fires
at the request of the Oregon Department of Forestry.<br>
The declaration also allows the Office of Emergency Management to
coordinate with other states if additional assets are needed...<br>
<font size="-1"> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2018/07/governor_declares_statewide_wi.html">https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2018/07/governor_declares_statewide_wi.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Data]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/global-temperature-update-5/">Global
Temperature Update</a></b><br>
Posted on July 18, 2018<br>
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has published
their data for global average temperature anomaly in June of this
year.<br>
<b>T</b><b>he five hottest years on record are the last five years.</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/global-temperature-update-5/">https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/07/18/global-temperature-update-5/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[reminder]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2018/07/18/atlantic-ocean-circulation-is-not-collapsing-but-as-it-shifts-gears-global-warming-will-reaccelerate/">Atlantic
Ocean circulation is not collapsing - but as it shifts gears,
global warming will reaccelerate</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2018/07/18/atlantic-ocean-circulation-is-not-collapsing-but-as-it-shifts-gears-global-warming-will-reaccelerate/">http://www.washington.edu/news/2018/07/18/atlantic-ocean-circulation-is-not-collapsing-but-as-it-shifts-gears-global-warming-will-reaccelerate/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Methane]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180716151529.htm">Thawing
permafrost microbiomes fuel climate change</a></b><br>
Date: July 16, 2018<br>
Source: University of Queensland<br>
Summary:<br>
A new study could lead to more accurate predictions or the rate of
global warming from greenhouse gas emissions produced by thawing
permafrost in the next 100 years. The study of the microorganisms
involved in permafrost carbon degradation links changing microbial
communities and biogeochemistry to the rise of greenhouse gas
emissions...<br>
- - - <br>
The study of the microorganisms involved in permafrost carbon
degradation links changing microbial communities and biogeochemistry
to the rise of greenhouse gas emissions...<br>
- - - - <br>
"As global temperatures rise, large amounts of carbon sequestered in
perennially frozen permafrost are becoming available for microbial
degradation," Dr Woodcroft said.<br>
"Until now, accurate prediction of greenhouse gas emissions produced
from thawing permafrost has been limited by our understanding of
permafrost microbial communities and their carbon metabolisms."<br>
Using sequencing techniques pioneered by Professor Tyson, over 200
samples from intact, thawing and thawed permafrost sites in northern
Sweden were examined.<br>
DNA sequences of more than 1500 microbial genomes all new to science
and involved in complex biochemical networks were recovered...<br>
- - - -<br>
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report estimated that
between 30 and 99 per cent of near-surface permafrost could
disappear by 2100," she said.<br>
"Northern permafrost wetlands contribute a significant portion of
global methane emissions, particularly as collapsing permafrost can
create the perfect anaerobic conditions for methane-producing
microorganisms (methanogens), and their metabolic partners, to
thrive.<br>
"This is important as methane is a potent greenhouse gas - 25 times
more efficient at trapping the sun's radiation in our atmosphere
than carbon dioxide."<br>
She said that as permafrost thaws, methane emissions increase,
causing a positive feedback loop where increased atmospheric warming
caused more thawing.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180716151529.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180716151529.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Just data; Climate migration]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23899195">"The United
Nations (UN) estimates that in 2008 20 million people were
displaced by climate change."</a></b><br>
In the longer term, he said, "you can imagine that the UN estimates
of 200 million such refugees, more than the total number of
worldwide migrants today, may be about right".<br>
We cannot comment in any way on the accuracy of a figure we did not
produce<br>
UN spokesperson<br>
The MP told the BBC it would be inaccurate to say he "warned that
climate change will create 200 million migrants". He added, however:
"It would be accurate to say that I argued that we have to tackle
the push factors that affect migration such as climate change as
otherwise the numbers who are made environmental refugees may reach
the estimate of 200 million."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23899195">https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23899195</a><br>
- - - -<br>
[Estimates]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://climatemigration.org.uk/climate-refugees-how-many/">Climate
refugees: how many are there? How many will there be?</a></b><br>
"24 million people were displaced by weather related disasters this
year. As climate change begins to alter patterns of disasters, we
can imagine these figures will get worse."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://climatemigration.org.uk/climate-refugees-how-many/">http://climatemigration.org.uk/climate-refugees-how-many/</a><br>
- - - -<br>
[Data from 2016 and 2017]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2017/">Global
Report on Internal Displacement</a></b><br>
The Global Report on Internal Displacement presents the latest
information on internal displacement worldwide caused by conflict,
violence and disasters.<br>
NEW DISPLACEMENTS - CONFLICT<br>
There were 6.9 million new internal displacements by conflict and
violence in 2016. Sub-Saharan Africa overtook the Middle East as the
region most affected, with almost one million new displacements in
the Democratic Republic of Congo as a result of violent clashes in
the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu and Kasai.<br>
Significant levels of displacement continued in the Middle East,
with Syria, Iraq and Yemen experiencing close to two million new
displacements in total during 2016.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2017/">http://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2017/</a><br>
- - - <br>
[Relief Web report of 2017]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/climate-migrants-might-reach-one-billion-2050">Climate
Migrants Might Reach One Billion by 2050</a></b><br>
Currently, forecasts vary from 25 million to 1 billion environmental
migrants by 2050, moving either within their countries or across
borders, on a permanent or temporary basis, with <b>200 million
being the most widely cited estimate</b>, according to a 2015
study carried out by the Institute for Environment and Human
Security of the United Nations University.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/climate-migrants-might-reach-one-billion-2050">https://reliefweb.int/report/world/climate-migrants-might-reach-one-billion-2050</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[why not]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climatecrocks.com/2018/07/18/could-trade-war-be-climate-tool/">Could
Trade War Be Climate Tool?</a></b><br>
July 18, 2018<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7">Beat
protectionism and emissions at a stroke</a><br>
Applying carbon charges, not trade tariffs, to imports would bolster
the Paris Agreement, argue Michael Mehling and colleagues.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7">https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05708-7</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatecrocks.com/2018/07/18/could-trade-war-be-climate-tool/">https://climatecrocks.com/2018/07/18/could-trade-war-be-climate-tool/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[video - Beckwith- all about Methane]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3irArpE_FU">Methane:
Consequence and Accelerant for Abrupt Climate Change</a></b><br>
Paul Beckwith - Published on Jul 15, 2018<br>
Abrupt climate change, specifically Arctic Temperature Amplification
is rapidly taking us on a collision course to an ice-free Arctic,
and is threatening to turn vast stores of carbon in thawing
permafrost and sea-floor sediments into methane and carbon dioxide,
further increasing warming in a vicious cascade of feedback loops.
In this ongoing series on methane, I discuss details of methane
release on land, under the oceans, and chat about how it changes
climate. Natural sources are emitting more methane with warming.<font
size="-1"><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3irArpE_FU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3irArpE_FU</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
CLIMATE MODELLING <br>
19 April 2018<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change">Explainer:
How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ explore future climate
change</a></b><br>
Over the past few years, an international team of climate
scientists, economists and energy systems modellers have built a
range of new "pathways" that examine how global society,
demographics and economics might change over the next century. They
are collectively known as the "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways"
(SSPs)...<br>
- - - -<br>
The SSPs are based on five narratives describing broad socioeconomic
trends that could shape future society. These are intended to span
the range of plausible futures.<br>
They include: a world of sustainability-focused growth and equality
(SSP1); a "middle of the road" world where trends broadly follow
their historical patterns (SSP2); a fragmented world of "resurgent
nationalism" (SSP3); a world of ever-increasing inequality (SSP4);
and a world of rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and
energy use (SSP5).<br>
The narrative for each is described in detail below:<br>
SSP narratives<br>
<b>SSP1 Sustainability - Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to
mitigation and adaptation)</b><br>
<blockquote>The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a
more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that
respects perceived environmental boundaries. Management of the
global commons slowly improves, educational and health investments
accelerate the demographic transition, and the emphasis on
economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human
well-being. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving
development goals, inequality is reduced both across and within
countries. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and
lower resource and energy intensity.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>SSP2 Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and
adaptation)</b><br>
<blockquote>The world follows a path in which social, economic, and
technological trends do not shift markedly from historical
patterns. Development and income growth proceeds unevenly, with
some countries making relatively good progress while others fall
short of expectations. Global and national institutions work
toward but make slow progress in achieving sustainable development
goals. Environmental systems experience degradation, although
there are some improvements and overall the intensity of resource
and energy use declines. Global population growth is moderate and
levels off in the second half of the century. Income inequality
persists or improves only slowly and challenges to reducing
vulnerability to societal and environmental changes remain.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>SSP3 Regional Rivalry - A Rocky Road (High challenges to
mitigation and adaptation)</b><br>
<blockquote>A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness
and security, and regional conflicts push countries to
increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues.
Policies shift over time to become increasingly oriented toward
national and regional security issues. Countries focus on
achieving energy and food security goals within their own regions
at the expense of broader-based development. Investments in
education and technological development decline. Economic
development is slow, consumption is material-intensive, and
inequalities persist or worsen over time. Population growth is low
in industrialized and high in developing countries. A low
international priority for addressing environmental concerns leads
to strong environmental degradation in some regions.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>SSP4 Inequality - A Road Divided (Low challenges to
mitigation, high challenges to adaptation)</b><br>
<blockquote>Highly unequal investments in human capital, combined
with increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political
power, lead to increasing inequalities and stratification both
across and within countries. Over time, a gap widens between an
internationally-connected society that contributes to knowledge-
and capital-intensive sectors of the global economy, and a
fragmented collection of lower-income, poorly educated societies
that work in a labor intensive, low-tech economy. Social cohesion
degrades and conflict and unrest become increasingly common.
Technology development is high in the high-tech economy and
sectors. The globally connected energy sector diversifies, with
investments in both carbon-intensive fuels like coal and
unconventional oil, but also low-carbon energy sources.
Environmental policies focus on local issues around middle and
high income areas.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development - Taking the Highway (High
challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)</b><br>
<blockquote>This world places increasing faith in competitive
markets, innovation and participatory societies to produce rapid
technological progress and development of human capital as the
path to sustainable development. Global markets are increasingly
integrated. There are also strong investments in health,
education, and institutions to enhance human and social capital.
At the same time, the push for economic and social development is
coupled with the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources
and the adoption of resource and energy intensive lifestyles
around the world. All these factors lead to rapid growth of the
global economy, while global population peaks and declines in the
21st century. Local environmental problems like air pollution are
successfully managed. There is faith in the ability to effectively
manage social and ecological systems, including by geo-engineering
if necessary.<br>
</blockquote>
Narratives for each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, from Riahi et al
2017...<br>
- - - -<br>
A key questions for scientists and policymakers is what will happen
if the world takes no action to address climate change.<br>
One of the big changes brought by the release of the SSPs is a
broadening of the baseline no-new-policy scenarios available to
researchers. Over much of the past decade researchers have tended to
use the high-emission high-warming RCP8.5 as their "business as
usual" baseline - a worst-case scenario of unchecked warming to
compare against futures where emissions are mitigated.<br>
One important takeaway is a shift in the definition of "business as
usual". Instead of a single worst-case scenario, the SSPs present a
wide range of future emissions possible in the absence of climate
policy, though all the new baseline scenarios result in at least
3.1C warming (and up to 5.1C) by 2100...<br>
- - - - -<br>
It is also possible that the world will follow more of a SSP1 or
SSP4 pathway of rapid technological development and falling costs of
things such as solar energy, battery storage, transmission
technologies and other changes. These would reduce barriers to
mitigation and result in more modest emissions and warming, even in
the absence of climate policies.<br>
However, the developers of the SSPs make no claim as to the relative
likelihood of any scenario coming to pass. It is certainly possible
to imagine a SSP3 or SSP5 world of high emissions. With the multiple
scenarios, researchers will now be able to compare mitigation
outcomes to a more realistic range of baseline worlds.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change">https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/science/earth/20schneider.html">This
Day in Climate History - July 19, 2010</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
July 19, 2010: Acclaimed climate scientist Stephen Schneider passes
away at 65.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/science/earth/20schneider.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/science/earth/20schneider.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
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