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<font size="+1"><i>August 18, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[$$$]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/news/economy/climate-change-economic-forecasts/index.html">Most
economic forecasts have a big blind spot: Climate change</a></b><br>
by Lydia DePillis - @CNNMoney<br>
Heat waves that ground airplanes. Rising seas that drown
waterfronts. Wildfires that consume whole cities and blanket the
West Coast in smoke.<br>
Climate change is having a real impact, not just on the environment
but on the economy too. And a growing body of research by economists
and climate scientists shows that extreme weather will weigh on
economic growth even more so in the future. But almost no mainstream
economic forecasting model takes that into account, in an omission
that some economists say could affect the accuracy of economic
predictions going forward.<br>
The most recent study to quantify the economic impact of the carbon
emissions that spur climate change was featured last week in a brief
by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. By evaluating the
performance of state economies in previous years, the report found
that every one degree increase in average summer temperatures
decreases annual state-level output growth by between 0.15 and 0.25
percentage points.<br>
That snowballs over time. If meaningful action isn't taken to curb
emissions, US economic growth will be a third lower than it would
otherwise have been by the end of this century - or sooner, if
warming accelerates even faster than scientists currently
anticipate. Theoretically, that means Americans will be poorer and
have lower living standards as a result (on top of the the general
disruptions to daily life caused by extreme weather events).<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/news/economy/climate-change-economic-forecasts/index.html">https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/news/economy/climate-change-economic-forecasts/index.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Investment White Paper]<br>
(this is not a paid advertisement, it is informed and exuberant,
this is not investment advice)<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=4">GMO
White Paper August 2018 (pdf)</a></b><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=4">The
Race of Our Lives Revisited</a><br>
Jeremy Grantham<br>
GMO is a global investment management firm committed to providing
sophisticated clients with superior asset management solutions. Our
sole business is investment management and, as a private
partnership, we are accountable only to our clients and to
ourselves. We forge strong partnerships with our clients, managing
their money as if it were our own and offering them honest counsel.
Our deep and talented investment teams are highly experienced and
forward-thinking, investing with focused expertise in a wide range
of asset classes.<br>
Investment Results: We believe that valuation-driven investing with
a long horizon will achieve the best risk-adjusted returns.<br>
In-Depth Analysis and Research: We combine rigorous fundamental
analysis with innovative quantitative methods to understand the
long-term drivers of returns.<br>
Our Clients: We provide our clients with candid investment advice.<br>
Read the paper
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=4">https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=4</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.gmo.com/">http://www.gmo.com/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[methane danger]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://phys.org/news/2018-08-abrupt-permafrost-beneath-lakes-significantly.html#jCp">'Abrupt
thaw' of permafrost beneath lakes could significantly affect
climate change models</a></b><br>
August 16, 2018 by Jeff Richardson, University of Alaska Fairbanks<br>
Methane released by thawing permafrost from some Arctic lakes could
significantly accelerate climate change, according to a new
University of Alaska Fairbanks-led study.<br>
The study, which was published Aug. 15 in the journal Nature
Communications, focuses on the carbon released by thawing permafrost
beneath thermokarst lakes. Such lakes develop when warming soil
melts ground ice, causing the surface to collapse and form pools of
water. Those pools accelerate permafrost thaw beneath the expanding
lakes, providing food for microbes that produce the greenhouse gases
carbon dioxide and methane...<br>
- - - - -<br>
Emissions from thermokarst lakes aren't currently factored into
global climate models because their small size makes individual
lakes difficult to include. However, the study's authors show that
these lakes are hotspots of permafrost carbon release. They argue
that not including them in global climate models overlooks their
feedback effect, which occurs when the release of greenhouse gases
from permafrost increases warming. That feedback is significant
because methane is about 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide as
a heat-trapping gas.<br>
Existing models currently attribute about 20 percent of the
permafrost carbon feedback this century to methane, with the rest
due to carbon dioxide from terrestrial soils. By including
thermokarst lakes, methane becomes the dominant driver, responsible
for 70 to 80 percent of permafrost carbon-caused warming this
century. Adding thermokarst methane to the models makes the
feedback's effect similar to that of land-use change, which is the
second-largest source of manmade warming.<br>
<b>Unlike shallow, gradual thawing of terrestrial permafrost, the
abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes is irreversible this century</b>.
Even climate models that project only moderate warming this century
will have to factor in their emissions, according to the study.<br>
"You can't stop the release of carbon from these lakes once they
form," Walter Anthony said. "We cannot get around this source of
warming."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2018-08-abrupt-permafrost-beneath-lakes-significantly.html#jCp">https://phys.org/news/2018-08-abrupt-permafrost-beneath-lakes-significantly.html#jCp</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[subconscious danger]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/explorations/blogs/285-the-psychological-impacts-of-the-climate-crisis-a-call-to-action">THE
PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS: A CALL TO ACTION</a></b><br>
Written by Lise Van Susteren Published: 12 August 2018<br>
"Mental health professionals will see the links between extreme
weather and climate events causing huge loss... and psychological
suffering."<br>
This article was published in BJPsych International, Volume 15,
Issue 2 May 2018, pp. 25-<br>
Lise Van Susteren, the author is on the Advisory Board for Center
for Health and the Global Environment; Harvard T. H. Chan School of
Public Health; The Climate Psychiatry Alliance<br>
A report released by the White House in April 2016 reviewed the
impacts of climate change on human health in the USA (USGCRP, 2016).
The report cited the injuries, deaths, disruption and displacement
from increasingly frequent and intense heat waves, fires, droughts,
floods, extreme weather events and rising sea level. It also
reported on the increase in infectious diseases and - associated
with pollution from higher temperatures - asthma, cardiovascular
disease, pulmonary disorders, obesity and cancers. Of special
interest, the report addressed the often-overlooked psychological
impacts of climate change, devoting an entire chapter to carefully
vetted, evidence-based data.<br>
Mental health professionals will see the links between extreme
weather and climate events causing huge loss of life, property, and
community and psychological suffering. Individual and institutional
avoidance of this exceedingly painful topic is rampant.<br>
<b>An overview of the mental health impacts in this report may be
summed up as follows: humanity is already suffering - and will
increasingly suffer - varying degrees and types of psychological
harm as climate-related disasters alter how and where we live,
and, in some cases, if we live</b>. Many people will not
experience the effects directly but will suffer vicariously in
empathic identification with the victims. The cumulative toll of
repeated events will be especially challenging. Many will suffer at
the thought of what they fear is coming and indeed what they are
being told is coming. A full range of psychological disorders is
emerging, and increased incidence of depression, anxiety, and
trauma-related conditions may be expected. Some of these conditions
will become chronic...<br>
- - - -<br>
The White House report was expressly envisioned as a first step. <b>
Below are amplifications and additions</b> that build on the
report...<br>
<blockquote><b>Aggression</b><br>
The report cites the link between extreme climate and weather
events to an increase in aggression. Not included in the report
were the precise numbers:<br>
For each standard deviation of increased temperature and change in
rainfall, society can expect a 4% increase in conflict between
individuals and a 14% increase in conflict between groups (Hsiang
et al, 2013).<br>
Behind the numbers lie more assaults, murder, suicides, domestic
violence - including child abuse, as well as increasing global
unrest because these findings are valid for all ethnicities and
across every region.<br>
<br>
<b>Cognition</b><br>
Exposing workers to increasing levels of carbon dioxide has a
major impact on cognitive functioning. Testing at concentrations
to which Americans are frequently exposed indoors shows the most
serious decline in our ability to think strategically, to use
information and to respond to a crisis (Datz, 2015).<br>
<br>
<b>Air quality</b><br>
Smog from pollution forms more quickly at higher temperatures. It
is linked to multiple mental and physical health problems:<br>
The American Psychological Association reported children exposed
to small particles of chemicals in the air are more likely to have
symptoms of anxiety or depression (Weir, 2012).<br>
Emergency room visits for anxiety and suicide threats are
significantly higher on days with poor air quality (Szyszkowicz et
al, 2010).<br>
Polluted air causes neuro-inflammation that is linked to
neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease,
Parkinson's disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis
(Frank-Cannon et al, 2009; Calderón-Garcidueñas et al, 2015). It
is also linked to psychiatric disorders (Lundberg, 1996; Oudin et
al, 2016).<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>'Not everything that counts can be counted'</b><br>
The authors of the report confined themselves to the psychological
impacts from climate change that were measurable. As important as
these are, much of the psychological harm comes from complex
stressors and is hard to measure. But it is these sweeping
psychological effects, inchoate though they may be, from the
massive-scale disruptions that are the guts of the psychological
toll and show why immediate action is needed and why alarm is so
legitimate.<br>
Predictions of upstream triggers show that unless immediate major
changes are made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, irreversible
catastrophes will be set in motion:<br>
The Middle East, experts have predicted, may be uninhabitable by
the end of the century (Funkhouser, 2016).<br>
As many as 50% of all living species may be on the road to
extinction by mid-century (Thomas et al, 2004).<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Refugee crisis</b><br>
Of all the traumatic consequences of climate change, one of the
most dramatic is the prediction that hundreds of millions of
refugees will soon be searching for safety (Vaughan, 2016).
Antonio Guterres, the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees, has declared that we 'no longer have the resources … to
pick up the pieces …' (Welsh, 2015).<br>
</blockquote>
<b>Professional opportunities</b><br>
The canon of ethics of many organizations, including the American
Psychiatric Association, declares that we have a responsibility to
recognise the need to protect public health (American Medical
Association, 1995-2016).<br>
Mental health professionals are well positioned to challenge denial,
influence public policy and care for the victims of climate
disasters because of our clinical training and expertise. We can
address psychological mechanisms of defence and harmful behaviour
and use our skills in treating the impacts of illness and injury.<br>
This urgent call to action is further conveyed by the choices we
make to live sustainably in our professional and personal lives -
because we also lead by example.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/explorations/blogs/285-the-psychological-impacts-of-the-climate-crisis-a-call-to-action">http://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/explorations/blogs/285-the-psychological-impacts-of-the-climate-crisis-a-call-to-action</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[more heat, more infection]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180816090430.htm">Key
factor may be missing from models that predict disease outbreaks
from climate change</a></b><br>
Parasites that incubate at higher temperatures cause stronger
infections in future hosts, creating a climate 'echo effect' across
generations of pathogens<br>
A study recently published in the journal Ecology has found that
pathogens that grow inside organisms at higher temperatures produce
offspring that cause higher rates of infection compared to pathogens
that grow inside organisms at lower temperatures. This suggests that
climate can cause an "echo effect" in future pathogens, ultimately
making them more infectious.<br>
"It's well known that environment can affect offspring across
generations in plants and animals," said Spencer Hall, a professor
in the IU Bloomington College of Arts and Sciences' Department of
Biology, who is senior author on the study. "This study is one of
the first to suggest that similar cross-generational effects occur
in parasites and pathogens."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180816090430.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180816090430.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Comic Danger - comic relief from the Onion] <br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theonion.com/climatologists-say-humanity-s-best-hope-is-hurricanes-s-1819580400">Climatologists
Say Humanity's Best Hope Is Hurricanes Spinning In Different
Directions And Canceling Each Other Out</a></b><br>
9/20/17 The Onion<br>
SILVER SPRING, MD-Warning that the planet would continue to
experience progressively more destructive storms caused by climate
change, a group of the nation's leading climatologists said
Wednesday that humanity's best hope now is for hurricanes spinning
in opposite directions to cancel each other out. "At this point, we
believe that the last, best hope for the human race is for two
hurricanes whirling in opposite directions at exactly the same speed
to neutralize each other," said National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration researcher Justin Rhee, adding that if one hurricane
spinning clockwise and another spinning counterclockwise collided in
the Gulf of Mexico, they could theoretically nullify each other and
result in calm, clear skies. "According to our research, the mutual
destruction of two mirror-image Category 5 storms with winds of 170
mph is really our only hope. Failing that, we'd have to pray that
two hurricanes spinning in the same direction would actually unite
and begin spinning so fast that they fly off the earth entirely."
Rhee went on to say that unfortunately, it is not outside the realm
of possibility for two hurricanes to double their magnitude by
stacking on top of each other, or for one hurricane to hurl the
other a thousand miles inland to wreak havoc on the Midwest.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theonion.com/climatologists-say-humanity-s-best-hope-is-hurricanes-s-1819580400">https://www.theonion.com/climatologists-say-humanity-s-best-hope-is-hurricanes-s-1819580400</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/climate/trump-clean-power-rollback.html">This
Day in Climate History - August 18, 2018</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
August 18, 2018:<br>
The New York Times reports:<br>
"The Trump administration next week plans to formally propose a vast
overhaul of climate change regulations that would allow individual
states to decide how, or even whether, to curb carbon dioxide
emissions from coal plants, according to a summary of the plan and
details provided by three people who have seen the full proposal.<br>
"The plan would also relax pollution rules for power plants that
need upgrades. That, combined with allowing states to set their own
rules, creates a serious risk that emissions, which had been
falling, could start to rise again, according to environmentalists.<br>
"The proposal, which President Trump is expected to highlight
Tuesday at a rally in West Virginia, amounts to the administration's
strongest and broadest effort yet to address what the president has
long described as a regulatory 'war on coal.' It would considerably
weaken what is known as the Clean Power Plan, former President
Barack Obama's signature regulation for cutting planet-warming
emissions at coal-fired plants.<br>
"That rule, crafted as the United States prepared to enter into the
2015 Paris Agreement on global warming, was the first federal
carbon-pollution restriction for power plants. In 2016, the Supreme
Court temporarily blocked the regulation from taking effect while a
federal court heard arguments from a coalition of coal states that
sued to block the rule. It remains suspended."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/climate/trump-clean-power-rollback.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/climate/trump-clean-power-rollback.html</a>
<br>
<br>
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