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<font size="+1"><i>August 30, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[optimism fish]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/29/fish-populations-could-rise-even-with-extreme-climate-change-study-shows">Fish
populations could rise in warming climate with better management</a></b><br>
Study finds potential for fisheries to benefit in future - as long
as warming can be kept in check...<br>
- - - -<br>
Better management of fisheries and fishing rights around the world
could increase profits and leave more fish in the sea as long as
measures to meet climate obligations are taken, new research has
found.<br>
Even if temperatures rise by as much as 4C above pre-industrial
levels - in the upper range of current forecasts - the damaging
effects on fishing can be reduced through improving how stocks are
fished and managed.<br>
Governments are meeting from 4 September in New York for the first
round of talks on a new global treaty of the high seas, which would
aim to conserve overfished stocks and make access to key fisheries
more equitable...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/29/fish-populations-could-rise-even-with-extreme-climate-change-study-shows">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/29/fish-populations-could-rise-even-with-extreme-climate-change-study-shows</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[A too green Lake Superior]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/science/lake-superior-algae-toxic.html">Algae
Bloom in Lake Superior Raises Worries on Climate Change and
Tourism<br>
</a></b>By Christine Hauser - Aug. 29, 2018<br>
In 19 years of piloting his boat around Lake Superior, Jody Estain
had never observed the water change as it has this summer. The lake
has been unusually balmy and cloudy, with thick mats of algae
blanketing the shoreline.<br>
"I have never seen it that warm," said Mr. Estain, a former Coast
Guard member who guides fishing, cave and kayak tours year-round.
"Everybody was talking about it."<br>
But it was not just recreational observers along the shores of the
lake who noticed the changes with concern. Lake Superior, the
largest of the Great Lakes with more than 2,700 miles of shoreline,
is the latest body of water to come under increased scrutiny by
scientists after the appearance this summer of the largest mass of
green, oozing algae ever detected on the lake.<br>
<font size="-1"><span class="moz-txt-link-freetext"><a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/science/lake-superior-algae-toxic.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/science/lake-superior-algae-toxic.html</a></span></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[BC Wildfire lookout]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/the-future-looks-grim-after-2-years-of-devastating-b-c-wildfires-1.4801181">The
future looks grim after 2 years of devastating B.C. wildfires</a></b><br>
Scientists say climate change models need to be revised after
back-to-back summers of wildfire emergencies<br>
According to Chilliwack fire ecologist Robert Gray, the scale of the
wildfire emergencies we've lived through in 2017 and 2018 wasn't
expected for decades.<br>
"What we thought was going to be an average condition in 2050, we're
starting to see those conditions coming a lot sooner," Gray told
CBC.<br>
"There's been a lot of discussion in the scientific community about
really changing what we think the future is going to look like."...<br>
- - - - -<br>
For the last two years, the hot and dry weather that has allowed so
many large fires to develop in B.C. has been driven by a blocking
ridge of high pressure that's been stuck over the province for much
of the summer.<br>
The air beneath that ridge sinks, warms and dries, creating perfect
conditions for a "raging inferno" if it sticks around for a week or
more, according to Flannigan.<br>
That stagnant pattern has developed because the jet stream is
weakening as the Arctic warms, a phenomenon that could spell more
bad news for B.C., he said.<br>
"There is a suggestion [in the] research that...because of the way
the Arctic ice is melting, that a favoured position for this ridge
is along the West Coast. If that's the case, then odds are that
we're going to see a lot of bad fire seasons in British Columbia,"
Flannigan said..<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/the-future-looks-grim-after-2-years-of-devastating-b-c-wildfires-1.4801181">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/the-future-looks-grim-after-2-years-of-devastating-b-c-wildfires-1.4801181</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[VOCs = Volatile Organic Compounds]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://phys.org/news/2018-08-permafrost-gas-mysterium.html#jCp">A
new permafrost gas mysterium</a></b><br>
August 27, 2018, University of Copenhagen<br>
In a new scientific article published in the journal Nature
Communications a group of scientists led by University of Copenhagen
authors shows that thawing permafrost releases a high amount and
diversity of volatile organic compounds (VOCs).<br>
These compounds are not greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and
methane. VOCs are known to be released from plants for example to
cope with stress and to communicate with other organisms, but less
is known about their release from soil. They react fast in the
atmosphere and these reactions have several consequences. For
example the production of ground level ozone, which is harmful for
human health and toxic for forests....<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2018-08-permafrost-gas-mysterium.html#jCp">https://phys.org/news/2018-08-permafrost-gas-mysterium.html#jCp</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[Check the data - from Tamino]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/29/arctic-heating/">Arctic
Heating</a></b><br>
by tamino<br>
News stories about the Arctic always seem to say either that the
Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average, or that it's
warming nearly twice as fast as the global average. That's not
correct. Arctic warming is more like three to four times as fast as
global warming...<br>
- - - -<br>
The greater warming of the Arctic is obvious. While the globe as a
whole has warmed about 1.1C (2F), Arctic temperature has gone up
3.2C (5.8F). That's 2.9 times as much...<br>
- - - - <br>
These data say that winter Arctic warming is 6.2 times as fast as
winter global warming, while summer Arctic warming is only (!) 2.3
times as fast.<br>
The faster Arctic rates from the Cowtan & Way data rather than
the NASA data are due to the different ways they interpolate to
cover the Arctic. I have more confidence in the Cowtan & Way
data because they use Kriging to do so; it's an ingenious
interpolation method which is far superior to others. Still, both
data sets have their advantages and disadvantages; I'd say it's
premature to say that one is definitely preferable to the other.<br>
The bottom line is that any way you look at it, the Arctic is
warming faster than the globe as a whole, and saying it's "twice as
fast" is quite an understatement.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/29/arctic-heating/">https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/29/arctic-heating/</a></font><br>
----<br>
[very disturbing study of amplified complexity ]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php">Scientists
pinpoint the key mechanism foe amplification of global warming</a></b><br>
SCIENCE CHINA PRESS PUBLIC RELEASE: 28-AUG-2018<br>
- - - - -<br>
The researchers likewise reveal that increases in carbon dioxide and
water vapor in the atmosphere mainly warm the surface through the
air temperature feedback. They find that air temperature feedback
amplifies the warming due to the direct radiative effect caused by
the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by a factor of 3-4.
It also amplifies the surface warming due to the increase in
atmospheric moisture from the period of 1984-1995 to 2002-2013. Most
importantly, they find that the thermal-radiative coupling between
the atmosphere and surface amplifies the signal of oceanic heat
uptake, adding 2.5 W/m2 to the surface on top of 1.75 W/m2 due to a
reduction of oceanic heat uptake between these two periods.<br>
The authors further state that an implication of the study is that
the amplification of the warming signals of these processes by the
temperature feedback indicates that warming uncertainties related to
the uncertainty of these processes can also be amplified. "For
example, the uncertainty in the water vapor increase implies
uncertainty in its warming signal, and this uncertainty is then
amplified by the temperature feedback. Global warming uncertainty in
climate model projections and observations are thus likely linked to
the temperature feedback. Making the reduction of global warming
uncertainty is a more inextricable task", said Sergio Sejas, one of
the four authors of this study.<br>
Overall, this observation based study corroborates the findings of a
recent climate model based analysis showing that "the temperature
feedback is responsible for most of the surface warming globally,
accounting for nearly 76% of the global-mean surface warming" (<a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0287.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0287.1</a>).<br>
<font size="-1"><span class="moz-txt-link-freetext"><a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php">https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php</a></span></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[see the video]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/28/climate-change-switchboard-shows-every-country-on-the-planet-turning-red-hot/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0a1cdfc728c5">Climate
change 'switchboard' visualization shows every country on the
planet turning red-hot</a></b><br>
By Jason Samenow - August 28 at 12:59 PM<br>
In presentations of global warming, sometimes watching maps morph
from blue (cold) to red (hot) grows tiresome. Talented data
visualizers are finding new and creative ways to illustrate the
warming of the planet.<br>
The latest visualization of the Earth heating up was built by Antti
Lipponen, a research scientist at the Finnish Meteorological
Institute, and it has caught fire. Just since Saturday, it has been
shared 16,000 times on Twitter. It reveals the majority of
countries have warmed by at least one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees
Fahrenheit), and all but one (Kiribati) have warmed by at least 0.5
degrees (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s.<br>
Maddie Stone, managing editor at Earther, aptly described the
visualization as a "climate switchboard."<br>
Lipponen's creation shows temperature trends for 191 countries over
a rectangular grid. Each country is represented by a circle. The
size of the circle indicates how much the temperature has changed
relative to the average temperature between 1951 and 1980, using
NASA data.,,<br>
- - - -<br>
Lipponen presented this same data a year ago using a different
visualization style, in which each country's temperature relative to
normal is a spoke that extends from a wheel and expands outward with
time as the climate warms.<br>
see at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/150411108@N06/35471910724/">https://www.flickr.com/photos/150411108@N06/35471910724/</a><br>
<font size="-1"><span class="moz-txt-link-freetext"><a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/28/climate-change-switchboard-shows-every-country-on-the-planet-turning-red-hot">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/28/climate-change-switchboard-shows-every-country-on-the-planet-turning-red-hot</a></span></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Climate change to Russia - VICE on HBO video]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://video.vice.com/en_us/video/global-warming-is-increasing-russias-profits-and-pollution/5a565d1f177dd479712cb0d1">Global
Warming Is Increasing Russia's Profits, And Pollution</a></b><br>
Climate change is causing catastrophic changes to the planet, but it
may be an economic blessing for Russia. As the Arctic ice melts at
unprecedented levels, petroleum and mineral resources become more
accessible. Russian oil companies are eager to take advantage of the
resource. The Northern Sea Passage, a legendary shipping lane along
Russia's arctic coastline, has been largely inaccessible because of
the dense Sea Ice. But now, that ice is melting, opening up vast
untouched reserves of oil gas and minerals. So, while much of the
world fears the catastrophic effects of climate change, Russia is
looking to capitalize on it. "The problem of climate change is
actually the problem of adaptation to climate change.This is not a
tragedy," said Nobel Prize Winning Climatologist Oleg Anisimov.
"Certainly some places will become unlivable, but other areas are
places that will become more livable." VICE's Gianna Toboni went to
Murmasnk, a northwestern city in Russia to see how big Russia is
betting on climate change<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://video.vice.com/en_us/video/global-warming-is-increasing-russias-profits-and-pollution/5a565d1f177dd479712cb0d1">https://video.vice.com/en_us/video/global-warming-is-increasing-russias-profits-and-pollution/5a565d1f177dd479712cb0d1</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[complexity squared]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php">Scientists
pinpoint the key mechanism foe amplification of global warming</a></b><br>
SCIENCE CHINA PRESS PUBLIC RELEASE: 28-AUG-2018<br>
Since the advent of the industrial revolution in the early 19th
century, increases in greenhouse gas emission are thought by
scientists to have steadily driven the increase in global-mean
surface temperature, known as global warming. This phenomenon is
expected to affect humans through sea-level rise and frequent heat
waves, among other adverse impacts. The high complexity of the
climate system, however, has made it difficult for scientists to
accurately predict the magnitude of global warming in the future and
the severity of its impacts. Chief among the issues is that the
complex interactions among the many components of the climate system
amplify or suppress the warming triggered by the increase in
greenhouse gases and unraveling these connections and their
importance for global warming is difficult. A new study co-authored
by Xiaoming Hu, Ming Cai, Song Yang, and Sergio Sejas published in
SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences provides new insights into how these
interactions amplify global warming.<br>
- - - - -<br>
The researchers likewise reveal that increases in carbon dioxide and
water vapor in the atmosphere mainly warm the surface through the
air temperature feedback. They find that air temperature feedback
amplifies the warming due to the direct radiative effect caused by
the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by a factor of 3-4.
It also amplifies the surface warming due to the increase in
atmospheric moisture from the period of 1984-1995 to 2002-2013. Most
importantly, they find that the thermal-radiative coupling between
the atmosphere and surface amplifies the signal of oceanic heat
uptake, adding 2.5 W/m2 to the surface on top of 1.75 W/m2 due to a
reduction of oceanic heat uptake between these two periods.<br>
<br>
The authors further state that an implication of the study is that
the amplification of the warming signals of these processes by the
temperature feedback indicates that warming uncertainties related to
the uncertainty of these processes can also be amplified. "For
example, the uncertainty in the water vapor increase implies
uncertainty in its warming signal, and this uncertainty is then
amplified by the temperature feedback. Global warming uncertainty in
climate model projections and observations are thus likely linked to
the temperature feedback. Making the reduction of global warming
uncertainty is a more inextricable task", said Sergio Sejas, one of
the four authors of this study.<br>
<br>
Overall, this observation based study corroborates the findings of a
recent climate model based analysis showing that "the temperature
feedback is responsible for most of the surface warming globally,
accounting for nearly 76% of the global-mean surface warming" (<a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0287.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0287.1</a>).<br>
<font size="-1"><span class="moz-txt-link-freetext"><a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php">https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-08/scp-spt082818.php</a></span></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Down under flames]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/australia-is-bracing-for-an-insane-fire-season-1828550060">Australia
Is Bracing for an 'Insane Fire Season'</a></b><br>
Maddie Stone<br>
As the U.S. grapples with one of its worst wildfire seasons on
record, Australia is getting a head start on what looks to be an
equally brutal year of bushfires. <br>
Since early August - wintertime in the southern hemisphere-hundreds
of bushfires have flared up in the Australian provinces of
Queensland and New South Wales, prompting some local authorities to
declare bushfire season open more than a month ahead of schedule.
This freak fire lashing has experts extremely worried for what lies
ahead as Australia transitions into spring and then summer.<br>
<br>
"We're dreading what the rest of the season holds for us," former
New South Wales Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Greg
Mullins told Earther.<br>
<br>
Fueling the flames is a drought that's been described as the worst
in living memory. Last winter was Australia's hottest on record and
the driest since 2002, and for large swaths of eastern and southern
Australia, there's been little rain to slake the thirst since. About
60 percent of Queensland is currently in drought. So is 100 percent
of New South Wales, a province that produces a quarter of the
nation's crops. Many of its fields are looking frighteningly
brown...<br>
- - - - -<br>
For Mullins, who's been fighting bushfires since the early 1970s and
whose father was a firefighter for over 60 years before him, decades
of life experience tell him how profoundly the fire season has
changed. He recalled how the onset of dangerous fire weather used to
be far more predictable. Today, it's not only harder to say when a
fire outbreak will occur, but the worst fires are on a scale
nobody's prepared to fight.<br>
"It's the new normal," Mullins said. "We can't handle it."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/australia-is-bracing-for-an-insane-fire-season-1828550060">https://earther.gizmodo.com/australia-is-bracing-for-an-insane-fire-season-1828550060</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[see the pictures]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2018/08/17/stunning-aerial-photos-of-the-worst-drought-in-australias-living-memory/?utm_term=.23a42d020274">Stunning
aerial photos of the worst drought in Australia's living memory</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2018/08/17/stunning-aerial-photos-of-the-worst-drought-in-australias-living-memory/?utm_term=.23a42d020274">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2018/08/17/stunning-aerial-photos-of-the-worst-drought-in-australias-living-memory/?utm_term=.23a42d020274</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96654">I
had to leave a comment</a>]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news">The
silver lining of fake news</a></b><br>
Dr Kaitlin Naughten<br>
It's different now. Denialism has spread into so many topics, and
received so much attention, that reasonable people are now well
aware of its existence. "You guys, did you know that there are
people who don't believe in facts?!" is the gist of so many dinner
conversations around the world these days. And the exhausted climate
scientists sit back, twirl their spaghetti around their fork, and
say "Yes, yes we know. So you've finally caught on."<br>
<br>
This is the weird silver lining of fake news: reasonable people now
take climate change more seriously. When they read bogus stories
about global cooling and natural cycles and scientific conspiracies,
they just say "Aha! These are the people who don't believe in
facts." It's like the dystopia of 2018 has inoculated many of us
against denialism. More and more people now understand and accept
the science of climate change, even while those who don't grow
louder and more desperate. Climate change deniers still exist, but
it seems that their audience is shrinking.<br>
(Of course, this doesn't mean we're actually doing anything about
climate change.)<br>
****<br>
<blockquote>comments: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96654">https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96654</a><br>
Roger on August 28, 2018 at 12:55 pm said:<br>
"What you can't see won't hurt you." Climate scientists have only
themselves to blame. It's not enough to yell out that the sky is
falling; people must be told what to do, and that's not happening.<br>
<br>
Reply-<br>
Richard Pauli on August 28, 2018 at 4:49 pm said:<br>
No, you need to check history.<br>
As soon as climate studies became a significant force, scientists
were told by PR manipulated media and by academic policy, told
explicitly - NOT to mess with public policy - to leave that to
politicians. AND within the university system they were
brow-beaten and warned NOT to comment outside of their respective
specialties. i.e. no scientific 'collusion'. So geologists and
climatologist retreated to their specialty corners. It took a good
while for them to fight back. And painfully. the field was made
strongly bulltet-proof after a campaign to challenge every bit of
climate data. I invite you to read all about it - via decades of
climate science talk and presentations found in <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.realclimate.org/">http://www.realclimate.org/</a><br>
Now, most climate science grad students get SOME training and
exposure to media literacy. The barriers were significant until
just a few years ago.<br>
And today. if you listen and read the presentations by climate
scientists - there is always a line like "all this unless we halt
all carbon emissions immediately" And quite often, specific
recommendations.<br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96654">https://climatesight.org/2018/08/22/the-silver-lining-of-fake-news/#comment-96654</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://web.archive.org/web/20130618033413/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0830-22.htm">This
Day in Climate History - August 30, 2005</a>- from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
August 30, 2005: <br>
In an essay published in the Boston Globe, and republished the next
day in the New York Times, Ross Gelbspan writes:<br>
"The hurricane that struck Louisiana yesterday was nicknamed Katrina
by the National Weather Service. Its real name is global warming."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://web.archive.org/web/20130618033413/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0830-22.htm">http://web.archive.org/web/20130618033413/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0830-22.htm</a><br>
<br>
<br>
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