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<font size="+1"><i>September 17, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[New Paul McCartney song (2:44) has an anthem quality]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/genius.com/amp/Paul-mccartney-despite-repeated-warnings-lyrics">Despite
Repeated Warnings</a></b><br>
Paul McCartney - Album Egypt Station<br>
Produced by Greg Kurstin<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/genius.com/amp/Paul-mccartney-despite-repeated-warnings-lyrics">https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/genius.com/amp/Paul-mccartney-despite-repeated-warnings-lyrics</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/UQKfUKPouuQ">https://youtu.be/UQKfUKPouuQ</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Really? this on a Monday?]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/09/16/2100-and-fundamental-fallacy-climate-change-predictions">2100,
and the Fundamental Fallacy of Climate Change Predictions</a></b><br>
The only moment we have to act is now.<br>
by Gordon Clark<br>
As a new global-warming charged hurricane dumps historic amounts of
rain over the Carolinas, reporting on climate change is seeing
another uptick. However varied the predictions, there is one number
that will always be included in the article: 2100 - as in the year
2100. Or sometimes just "by the end of the century."<br>
Whatever level of frightful climate impacts are being envisioned,
journalists, and the scientists they are reporting on, always feel
compelled to tell us where things will be by 2100. Of course one
year (or 100) is an arbitrary measure when it comes to the
proceedings of nature - the planet is not punching a time clock,
after all - but the problem with "2100" as a guidepost for climate
change predictions goes well beyond that, and you don't have to be a
scientist to understand it.<br>
- # # #<br>
When we put carbon (and other greenhouse gases) into the atmosphere,
it causes the atmosphere to retain more heat. Scientists can do the
math on how much carbon we're generating and calculate
(approximately) the amount of warming that will result.<br>
But as we warm the atmosphere we also trigger natural processes on
our planet that contribute even further to warming. They are called
feedback loops, and they are very straightforward.<br>
<br>
For instance, as the atmosphere warms up, the ice caps melt, and
smaller ice caps mean less sunlight reflected back into space and
more absorbed by blue water, as well as more methane (a greenhouse
gas much more potent than carbon) released from the thawing seabed -
all of which contribute to more warming. Warmer and drier conditions
have also led to larger forest fires and a longer forest fire season
- just ask anyone in California - and all that smoke leads to more
global warming. <br>
<br>
However, unlike manmade production of carbon and methane that can -
in theory, anyway - be controlled, reduced or even eliminated, these
natural processes, once triggered, reinforce themselves. A smaller
ice cap means more warming… which means an even smaller ice cap than
before, which means even more warming than before leading to even
faster shrinking of the ice caps - and so on. The smoke from
massive forest fires leads to even drier and hotter conditions,
which creates even larger forest fires than before creating even
more smoke than before - and so on.<br>
<br>
Melting ice caps and growing forest fires are just the two most
obvious feedback loops, but scientists have identified more. And
they are now all in motion, reinforcing themselves and adding to
global warming in ways we can only begin to imagine.<br>
<br>
Global warming is not a linear process, it's a geometric one. It's
an accelerating process. And science, for all its wisdom, has no way
to measure that. <br>
<br>
Scientists tell us what the planet will be like in 2100 based on
their understanding of the linear process of adding X amount of
carbon to the atmosphere. But have they figured in an Arctic ice cap
that could easily be gone in five years, and the extra heating that
will result? How about the methane rising from permafrost melting
around the world? Do they estimate how much larger forest fires will
be in 10 years, and the effect of all that extra carbon rising into
the atmosphere? <br>
<br>
Worse yet, how can one calculate the results of a process that is
accelerating at an unknown rate - and that will be accelerating even
faster next year as it continues to reinforce itself? The simple
answer is you can't.<br>
- # # #<br>
The challenge of making accurate predictions of climate change is
not a secret. In 2012 Scientific America published an article noting
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): "Across two
decades and thousands of pages of reports, the world's most
authoritative voice on climate science has consistently understated
the rate and intensity of climate change and the danger those
impacts represent." ("Climate Science Predictions Prove Too
Conservative" December 6, 2012) <br>
<br>
Yet most climate scientists, and the reporters that cover them,
still have a hard time coming to terms with the existence of
feedback loops, or including them in their discussions and
predictions. A good example is David Wallace-Wells, who wrote a
meticulously researched and much discussed climate change cover
story for New York magazine last summer entitled "The Uninhabitable
Earth," in which he outlined "worst case scenarios" for advancing
climate change...<br>
- - - - <br>
However, unlike manmade production of carbon and methane that can -
in theory, anyway - be controlled, reduced or even eliminated, these
natural processes, once triggered, reinforce themselves. A smaller
ice cap means more warming… which means an even smaller ice cap than
before, which means even more warming than before leading to even
faster shrinking of the ice caps - and so on. The smoke from
massive forest fires leads to even drier and hotter conditions,
which creates even larger forest fires than before creating even
more smoke than before - and so on.<br>
<br>
Melting ice caps and growing forest fires are just the two most
obvious feedback loops, but scientists have identified more. And
they are now all in motion, reinforcing themselves and adding to
global warming in ways we can only begin to imagine.<br>
<br>
Global warming is not a linear process, it's a geometric one. It's
an accelerating process. And science, for all its wisdom, has no way
to measure that. <br>
<br>
Scientists tell us what the planet will be like in 2100 based on
their understanding of the linear process of adding X amount of
carbon to the atmosphere. But have they figured in an Arctic ice cap
that could easily be gone in five years, and the extra heating that
will result? How about the methane rising from permafrost melting
around the world? Do they estimate how much larger forest fires will
be in 10 years, and the effect of all that extra carbon rising into
the atmosphere? <br>
<br>
Worse yet, how can one calculate the results of a process that is
accelerating at an unknown rate - and that will be accelerating even
faster next year as it continues to reinforce itself? The simple
answer is you can't...<br>
- - - - <br>
Whatever the reason for most people's lack of response to - or
outright denial of -climate change, we will unfortunately have to
continue this experiment in human behavior, because terrible climate
news and equally dire warnings from scientists aren't about to stop.
In the wake the ground-breaking study on the impact of feedback
loops came another new report, "What Lies Beneath: The
Understatement of Existential Climate Risk," by researchers with the
National Centre for Climate Restoration in Australia; it argued that
the existential threats posed by the climate crisis have still not
penetrated the collective psyche of humanity and that nothing short
of a war-time mobilization can stop climate change now. It was also
reported in August that the oldest and thickest sea ice in the
Arctic has started to break up - something that has never happened
in recorded history. And now we more than a million people
evacuated for Hurricane Florence.<br>
<br>
It is reasonable to assume that the millions of people fleeing fire,
flood, and other climate change-induced extreme weather around the
world are not thinking much about the end of the century. Neither
should you. What befell them could happen to any of us next.<br>
And whether you think climate change is already a runaway train, or
that it can still be "halted in its tracks," and whatever you
believe you should do as a result of what you believe, you can stop
worrying about 2100. The only moment we have to act is now.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/09/16/2100-and-fundamental-fallacy-climate-change-predictions">https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/09/16/2100-and-fundamental-fallacy-climate-change-predictions</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Sponsorware video - a new way to deliver educational messages on
climate]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfXiqAAb1HE">How Big Do
Hurricanes Get?</a></b><br>
RealLifeLore 8 minutes Sept 16, 2018<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfXiqAAb1HE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfXiqAAb1HE</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[local resilience activism]<br>
Monday, September 17, 2018<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.meetup.com/NYC-Grassroots-Alliance/events/252945564/">Build
Supportive Neighborhoods in NYC--Prepare for Increasing Climate
Disruption</a></b><br>
Susan Spieler<br>
Details<br>
LET'S CREATE SUPPORTIVE NEIGHBORHOODS THROUGHOUT NYC:<br>
Prepare for Increasing Climate Disruptions<br>
NYC Grassroots Alliance is planning a series of monthly events to
highlight ways people can prepare to take care of themselves, their
families, friends and neighbors with the help of others, near home,
during climate emergencies. As we have learned from the massive
damage from the Hurricanes of 2017, including Harvey in Houston and
Maria in Puerto Rico, that were associated with large-scale
flooding, the government cannot be everywhere and, most often,
neighbors are the ones who come to the rescue.<br>
Should the grid go down and cell phone communications cease in an
emergency, neighbors can arrange to check on the elderly or disabled
and those with small children and/or pets. Neighborhoods can develop
coordinated knowledge in advance of crises about local places to
find shelter, secure depots to obtain food and supplies, locations
of rafts, bikes, power generators and people with crucial skills
such as firefighters, doctors and nurses, etc. and ways to find them
amid crises.<br>
We are inviting speakers from city agencies including the NYC Office
of Emergency Management, and the Mayor's Office of Sustainability
and Resilience, as well as from neighborhood organizations where
plans are already being put in place, such as Lower East Side (LES)
Ready, and existing groups that need to put plans in place including
CSAs, block associations, community gardens, churches, synagogues
and faith-based groups, Y's, the organizers of bike rescues and
other groups with creative ideas that should be more widely known.<br>
We encourage attendees to meet with neighbors and think together
about how to coordinate and collaborate within their own
neighborhoods so that they are ready for increasing climate
disruptions. Each event will include Q & A with the presenters.<br>
The first event will take place on Monday September 17 at 6:30PM at
the NYC Society for Ethical Culture at 2 W. 64th St. The other
events in this series will take place on Mondays October 1, November
5 and may continue in additional months.<br>
-----<br>
Please RSVP to our meetup: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.meetup.com/nyc-grassroots-alliance/events/252945564/">https://www.meetup.com/nyc-grassroots-alliance/events/252945564/</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.meetup.com/NYC-Grassroots-Alliance/events/252945564/">https://www.meetup.com/NYC-Grassroots-Alliance/events/252945564/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[room temp, slightly warm]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/10/belgium-sour-lambic-beer-climate-change-risk">One
of world's oldest beer varieties 'at risk from climate change'</a></b><br>
Rising temperatures threaten survival of Belgium's sour lambic beer,
study warns<br>
Daniel Boffey in Brussels<br>
Mon 10 Sep 2018 06.27 EDT Last modified on Mon 10 Sep 2018 18.50 EDT<br>
A brewery worker pours a glass of lambic beer<br>
The brewing season for lambic beer has shortened by 25 days since
the early 1900s. Photograph: Keystone USA/Zuma/Rex/Shutterstock<br>
Climate change is putting one of the world's oldest beer varieties
at risk, environmental scientists and one of Belgium's leading
artisan brewers have said.<br>
A study into temperatures in Brussels and the Pajottenland region
south-west of the Belgian capital has raised doubts over the future
of the sour lambic beer produced exclusively in the region.<br>
Lambic is fermented in the open air through exposure to wild yeasts
and airborne native bacteria. It relies on night-time temperatures
of between -8C and 8C (18F-46F) for cooling and inoculation.<br>
The traditional brewing season runs from October to April, with
bezomerd - Brussels dialect for a beer that has had "too much
summer" - a possibility if it is produced any later.<br>
After cooling, the lambic is placed in wooden barrels where it is
exposed to microbes living on the wood. The perfect temperature for
ageing lambic is below 25C, above which the risk of unwelcome
bacteria spoiling the beer rises.<br>
A joint project between the climate scientists Mark and Asa Stone,
Adam Harbaugh from the beer research site Lambic.info and the
Brussels brewery Cantillon found this limited brewing window has
shortened from 165 days in the early 1900s to about 140, as
temperatures have pushed it later into the autumn and brought the
season prematurely to an end in early spring.<br>
It is feared the number of brewing days will shrink further,
bringing the risk of a similar disaster to 2015, when beer had to be
thrown away due to excessive temperatures.<br>
Dr Mark Stone, a director at the University of New Mexico's
Resilience Institute, said: "The impacts of climate change are often
gradual until a tipping point is crossed. Our results show that
Cantillon is experiencing shifting brewing conditions, and that
adaptation to avoid crossing a threshold will require changes in
brewing operations that are outside of their traditional methods.<br>
"The threat of climate change on traditional lambic production at
Cantillon is indicative of the broader issue. That is, the impacts
are not fully recognised until a threshold has been crossed, and
adaptation strategies often exacerbate the problem while delaying
the inevitable."<br>
Cantillon, which produces 400,000 bottles of the sour beer a year,
has warned its ability to produce the beer could be under threat in
the long term.<br>
Jean Van Roy, Cantillon's owner, told the Brussels Beer City blog
that he believed if he artificially cooled the wort - a liquid
extracted during the mashing process - it would change the taste of
the beer.<br>
"If tomorrow I would have this problem every season, financially it
could be a bit difficult, so we would have to change something," he
said.<br>
"[But] I would hate to do that … Or we move the brewery to go up
north to begin to brew in Denmark, in Sweden, I don't know."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/10/belgium-sour-lambic-beer-climate-change-risk">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/10/belgium-sour-lambic-beer-climate-change-risk</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[cough, I got mine in Arizona]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/75119">Climate
Change, Ag Practices Expand Histoplasmosis Range</a></b><br>
Fungal lung pathogen now endemic in Missouri River basin<br>
by Salynn Boyles, Contributing Writer<br>
September 15, 2018<br>
Largely confined to the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys just a
half century ago, the soil-dwelling fungus that causes the lung
infection histoplasmosis has migrated west into the upper Missouri
River basin due to a combination of climate change and changing land
use patterns.<br>
The infection, caused by exposure to airborne spores from the
soil-dwelling fungus Histoplasma capsulatum, is generally
asymptomatic in healthy people, but can cause significant disease
and even death in people who are immunocompromised due to illness or
drug treatments.<br>
Recent outbreaks of the infection in Montana and Nebraska led the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to suggest
that histoplasmosis is now endemic in these regions....<br>
<font size="-1">more: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/75119">https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/75119</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Opinion - widely shared - but "On the Media" is silent about global
warming issues]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/09/15/new-york-times-should-hire-climate-scientist-michael-mann-op-ed-columnist-global">The
New York Times Should Hire Climate Scientist Michael Mann as
Op-Ed Columnist on Global Warming</a></b><br>
It would help the Times make amends to its readers and everyone else
for its short coverage of global warming over the years.<br>
by Howard Friel<br>
Last Tuesday, September 11, while watching Democracy Now!, I
listened to the lucid, conversational way in which Penn State
climatologist Michael E. Mann explained the looming amplifying
impacts of human-induced global warming on Hurricane Florence and
its grim triple-header threat to the Carolinas: severe storm surge
and coastal flooding, powerful/damaging winds, and "perhaps most
significant of all, [the hurricane] is predicted to stall when it
makes landfall, and so that will lead to very large amounts of
flooding rainfall, perhaps rivaling what we saw with Hurricane
Harvey last year, which was the worst flooding event on record."<br>
<br>
Mann's easily articulated assessments of the influence of global
warming on Hurricane Florence reminded me of what I had mentioned to
some friends a year or so ago--that the New York Times should hire a
climate scientist, in particular, Michael Mann, to write a full-time
column on climate change. Mann, a superb scientist, is also a
recipient of the 2017 Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding
Climate Science Communication, which is given "to a natural or
social scientist who has made extraordinary scientific contributions
and communicated that knowledge to a broad public in a clear and
compelling fashion."<br>
<br>
A good precedent for hiring Mann as a full-time climate-change
columnist is the successful decision by the Times to employ Paul
Krugman as an op-ed page columnist on economics. There is also an
urgent need for mainstream news organizations to upgrade their
reporting on climate science and its implications without the
now-tattered and torn baggage of journalistic balance.<br>
<br>
Mann's most recent published research in leading journals also
speaks authoritatively to major current climate concerns: "Climate
change and California drought in the 21st century" (Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, 2015); "Increased threat of
tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the
anthropogenic era" (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
2015); "The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth" (Scientific Reports,
2016); "Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave
Resonance and Extreme Weather Events" (Scientific Reports, 2017);
"Impact of climate change on New York City's coast flood hazard"
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2017); "Assessing
climate change impacts on extreme weather events" (Climatic Change,
2017); and "Record temperature streak bears anthropogenic
fingerprint" (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017).<br>
<br>
His scientific expertise and communication skills make him almost
uniquely well-suited to elevate the Times' coverage of climate
change in response to the existential threat of global warming and
its now-emerging extreme impacts.<br>
<br>
Assuming that Mann or another such climate scientist would be
willing to change occupations as suggested here, in effect as a
public service, another question involves whether the publisher and
top editors at the Times would be willing to depart from their
longstanding uninspired coverage of climate change.<br>
<br>
In fall 2007, I began reading published material on climate science
for a book that I was preparing to write about the New York Times
coverage of climate change. At that time, I read the just-published
book by the climate skeptic Bjorn Lomborg, Cool It: The Skeptical
Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming (Knopf, 2007). Lomborg's
book so thoroughly embodied what the late Stephen Schneider once
referred to as the "chronic mistake-making" of another climate
denier, that I switched my focus from the Times' coverage of climate
change to writing a book about Lomborg's Cool It.<br>
<br>
I often regret, however, not returning to the Times coverage of
climate change. This occurs, for example, when I recall the
favorable review in November 2007 by Andrew Revkin, editor of the
Dot Earth blog on climate change at the Times, of Lomborg's Cool It.
In that review, Revkin placed Lomborg at "the pragmatic center"
among commentators on global warming. Revkin's review was called
"Challenges to Both Left and Right in U.S. on Global Warming," with
Lomborg situated in the middle.<br>
<br>
Oddly, this followed the favorable review of Cool It in the Wall
Street Journal by Kimberly Strassel, titled "A Calm Voice in a
Heated Debate," in which she likewise positioned Lomborg in "the
practical middle" among climate commentators.<br>
<br>
Revkin also followed Lomborg's own review of Cool It in the
Washington Post, called "Chill Out," in which Lomborg wrote that his
book staked out "the middle ground, where we can have a sensible
discussion" about whether climate change was a looming global
catastrophe; Lomborg argued that it was not.<br>
<br>
Although he worked hard and included a multitude of expert opinion
on climate change, Revkin's excessively "balanced" and
"middle-ground" editorial overlay was the dominant theme of his long
tenure as the Times' principal interlocutor on climate change, which
departed from the climate-related worst-case scenarios that were
bubbling up to the surface of the published scientific literature in
the early 2000s. Add to this the long-standing disinterest in
climate change at the science desk at the Times, the thin reporting
in its news pages, the occasional editorial, and the absence of a
climate-change expert among its full-time columnists.<br>
<br>
Engaging the likes of a Michael Mann as a regular columnist to
report, translate, and comment on the extreme dangers of
human-induced climate change would help the Times make amends to its
readers and everyone else for its short coverage of global warming
over the years, given the extent of the threat that it obviously now
presents.<br>
<font size="-1">Howard Friel is author of Chomsky and Dershowitz: On
Endless War and the End of Civil Liberties (Olive Branch Press).<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/09/15/new-york-times-should-hire-climate-scientist-michael-mann-op-ed-columnist-global">https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/09/15/new-york-times-should-hire-climate-scientist-michael-mann-op-ed-columnist-global</a></font><br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://youtu.be/MJ8CoxnjjZg">This Day in Climate History
- September 17, 2011</a> - from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
September 17, 2011:<br>
[video] The Occupy Wall Street movement begins in New York City.
Writer Naomi Klein would later credit OWS for prompting a delay of
the Obama administration's final decision on the Keystone XL
pipeline. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/MJ8CoxnjjZg">http://youtu.be/MJ8CoxnjjZg</a><br>
<br>
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