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<font size="+1"><i>September 18, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[blessed positive news - a breeze, a few videos]<br>
Climate Denial Crock of the Week with Peter Sinclair<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climatecrocks.com/2018/09/17/how-a-big-coal-based-utility-pivots-to-wind-renewables/">How
a Big Coal Based Utility Pivots to Wind, Renewables</a></b><br>
September 17, 2018<br>
Up until just a few years ago, Detroit based DTE, the second largest
utility in Michigan, and a classic example of a big, coal-heavy rust
belt electric producer, was still pushing back on efforts to
decarbonize and enact more ambitious Renewable Portfolio standards
in the state.<br>
Then something happened.<br>
Confess I'm not sure exactly what - but it might have something to
do with the great performance of the wind farms the utility has been
putting up in recent years, and the increasingly obvious results of
economic models from across the county that show renewables
outperforming fossil fuels in coming decades, and perhaps an
enlightened self interest in realizing that there's no fighting a
technological disruption of this magnitude.<br>
- - - <br>
My jaw dropped when a company official affirmed commitment to the
Paris Initiative, and a low carbon profile by mid-century.<br>
I get it - it's not enough. But given the progress of the last 5
years, and the rapid pace of technological change, I don't think
it's naive to imagine even more ambitious goal setting in the not to
distant future.<br>
Above, and below, the company is touting it's success with robust
wind development throughout the state, and the spectacular benefits
to local communities.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatecrocks.com/2018/09/17/how-a-big-coal-based-utility-pivots-to-wind-renewables/">https://climatecrocks.com/2018/09/17/how-a-big-coal-based-utility-pivots-to-wind-renewables/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
["managed retreat as adaptation strategy"]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://soundcloud.com/kuow/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise">'Retreat,
or perish in place.' First-hand accounts of sea level rise</a></b><br>
As sea levels rise and coastal populations increase, more people are
subject to flooding. Author Elizabeth Rush compiled research and the
stories of people affected by sea level rise for her new book <b>"Rising:
Dispatches from the New American Shore."</b> <a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://elizabethrush.net">On her
website</a>, Rush says "My work chronicles communities being
irrevocably changed by late capitalist industrialization."<br>
Rush teaches creative nonfiction at Brown University. She spoke at
The Elliott Bay Book Company on August 17.<br>
KUOW's Jennie Cecil Moore recorded the event.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://soundcloud.com/kuow/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise">https://soundcloud.com/kuow/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise</a><br>
- - - -<br>
[NYTime$ Book Review]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/books/review/rising-elizabeth-rush.html">Searching
for Language to Capture How Climate Change Has Altered Our World</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/books/review/rising-elizabeth-rush.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/books/review/rising-elizabeth-rush.html</a></font><br>
<br>
[The Climate Vote]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/talking-climate-change-voters">Talking
climate change with voters</a></b><br>
Terry F. Yosie<br>
Monday, September 17, 2018 - 12:42am<br>
Following years of extremely high and low temperatures, catastrophic
hurricanes, droughts, floods, forest fires and sea-level rises
eating away at valuable shorelines, the American people share a
growing awareness of climate change.<br>
<br>
According to recent results in Yale's Climate Opinion Maps, 73
percent of all registered voters believe that climate change is
happening, and 59 percent of voters think it is mostly caused by
human activity. Thirty-eight percent agree that a candidate's
position on climate change will be very important in deciding who to
elect in the 2018 Congressional midterm elections. (<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2018/">You
can find the methodology behind the data here</a>.)<br>
<br>
Why, then, has government policy and consumer behavior lagged behind
these and other public opinion research showing similar trends?<br>
<br>
Beyond acknowledging that people's beliefs don't always yield
immediate concrete actions, it is important to unbundle the several
dimensions of the climate change conversation that generally go
unrecognized. Engaging voters on climate change must account for the
following factors:<br>
<blockquote><b>1. The scientific community and environmental
advocates communicate climate change as an abstract, complex and
impersonal issue.</b> This contrasts with consistently high
levels of public understanding and support for air and water
quality and waste controls. These issues all exist in a
"pollution" framework that is seen to present personal risk. Given
that most of the public believes that climate change is already
underway, translating the public dialogue from "climate change" to
"carbon pollution" is more likely to expedite the sense of
immediacy and personal relevance of the issue.<br>
<br>
Presenting the co-benefits of controlling carbon pollution (and
methane and other major greenhouse gases) in the form of air and
water quality improvements, energy efficiency and protection of
natural resources and property also communicates that shorter-term
societal benefits are achievable as well as those that require
more time. People do frequently vote their pocketbooks and their
interests, but these are often defined by their experiences and
sense of personal well-being rather than primarily scientific
facts.<br>
<br>
<b>2. Reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is an outcome,
not a goal.</b> All too often, climate policy advocates
disconnect their proposed solutions from economic investment
strategies, workforce training and skills development, or the
consequences to people and communities from eliminating high-wage
jobs in the fossil-fuels industry.<br>
<br>
An alternative strategy would recognize the value of leveraging
public and private sector investments in critical economic
infrastructure and technologies that are both more
climate-friendly and create longer-term employment at higher
wages. The chemical industry, for example, has proposed that West
Virginia serve as a major infrastructure hub for the natural gas
industry in the eastern United States. Such a plan would offset
lost (and never returning) coal-mining jobs and provide an
opportunity to lock in greenhouse gas reductions by mandating best
industry best practices across the value chain.<br>
<br>
<b>3. The climate change debate -- like civil rights, health care
and immigration -- is less about the level of scientific
certainty, regulation or taxation and more about choice, change
and equity.</b> It has become a lens through which to examine
the nation's priorities and whether fair and efficient solutions
can be developed to guide decision making without limiting our
capacity to innovate new technologies or place disproportionate
risks upon future generations. Fossil-fuels advocates, evangelical
preachers, renewable energy entrepreneurs, environmentalists and
local communities all belong in the climate conversation, but
defense of the status quo does not because it is already being
overtaken by events directly associated with climate change. And
there are more impacts to come. In the words of climate analyst
Joseph Romm, "It seems likely that climate change will transform
the lives of your children more than the internet has."<br>
<br>
<b>4. Climate change and other decisions are based on personal
values.</b> Education, career planning, partner selection and
residency location have both immediate and long-term impacts on
ourselves and our families. So, do climate change choices that we
directly make through a series of purchasing, lifestyle and voting
decisions. Individually or collectively, we can shape our future
or abdicate having a voice in the outcome.<br>
</blockquote>
Much of the current crisis in America's economic and social system
-- wage stagnation, growing inequality, social despair through
growing rates of addiction and suicide, and carbon pollution --
reflects the fact that the post-World War II economic engine we rode
in on is no longer sufficient to support our values and our future.<br>
<br>
The late historian David Potter wrote that "economic abundance is
conducive to political democracy." Debating and resolving the
climate challenge is less about addressing the remaining
technicalities and more about recreating abundance that is
environmentally more friendly, more equitable and restorative of our
democracy. Whether a voter supports Donald Trump or the Paris
climate agreement is subordinate to choosing an economic and social
future that is resilient beyond our own generation and in which
climate solutions emerge as a significant by-product. Only we the
voters can make those decisions.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/talking-climate-change-voters">https://www.greenbiz.com/article/talking-climate-change-voters</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[from our elder statesman scientist]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2018/20180917_August2018TemperatureUpdate.pdf">Global
Warming and East Coast Hurricanes</a></b><br>
17 September 2018<br>
James Hansen and Makiko Sato<br>
Wally Broecker suggested decades ago that freshwater injection onto
the North Atlantic could cause shutdown of the overturning ocean
circulation (AMOC, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation).
Rahmstorf et al. (2015)1 present evidence that a 20th century trend
toward the cooling southeast of Greenland was due to a slowdown of
AMOC, linking the trend to observed freshening of the North Atlantic
surface water that may have been due to some combination of
anomalous sea ice export from the Arctic, Greenland melt, and
increased precipitation and river runoff.<br>
<br>
In our paper on ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms we conclude
from multiple lines of evidence that a 21st century slowdown of AMOC
is underway. Ocean surface temperature response to AMOC slowdown,
in addition to cooling southeast of Greenland, includes warming off
the U.S. East Coast, a temperature pattern emerging from high ocean
resolution simulations (Saba et al., 2015).<br>
<br>
So, does global warming have a hand in the magnitude of the
Hurricane Florence disaster on the U.S. East Coast? Yes, we can say
with confidence, it contributes in several ways.<br>
<blockquote><b>First, there is the fact that sea level rise due to
global warming is already well over a foot along the U.S. East
Coast. </b> Ice melt due to global warming accounts for about 20
cm (8 inches) global average sea level rise (Fig. 29 in our Ice
Melt paper2). Slowdown of the Gulf Stream, which is a part of the
AMOC slowdown, adds to East Coast sea level. The slowdown reduces
the west-to-east upward slope of the ocean surface across the Gulf
Stream, causing piling up of water on the East Coast. The
combined sea level rise from these effects, which is also
responsible for "sunny day flooding" on the Eastern Seaboard,
makes hurricane storm surges greater.<br>
<br>
<b>Second, the warmer ocean surface and atmosphere result in
greater rainfall amounts</b>. Of course the primary<br>
reason for extraordinary rainfall amounts from Florence was the
storm's slow movement.<br>
<br>
<b>Third, warmer ocean surface provides more fuel for tropical
storms and expands the ocean area able to generate</b><b><br>
</b><b> and maintain these storms.</b> Part of a given hurricane's
strength can be attributed to such extra warming of the<br>
ocean surface. That effect was pronounced in the case of Hurricane
Sandy, which maintained hurricane wind<br>
speeds all the way to New York City because of the unusually warm
sea surface off the United States East Coast.<br>
</blockquote>
What about the track of Florence and the fact that it stalled,
resulting in huge local rainfall totals? The track and<br>
speed of a given hurricane depend on large scale mid-latitude
weather patterns that are largely a matter of chance.<br>
As the area in which "tropical" storms can form expands poleward,
the opportunity for a mid-latitude high<br>
pressure system to push a storm westward may increase, but we are
unaware of specific studies. What we can say<br>
is that historical hurricane tracks may not be an accurate picture
of future tracks.<br>
<br>
The number of hurricanes striking the continental U.S. does not show
a notable trend (Fig. 2). Indeed, the current<br>
decade has only the rest of this year and next year to add to its
total to avoid being the decade with the smallest<br>
number of hurricanes hitting the continental United States. This
small reduction in landfalls seems to be a matter<br>
of chance.<br>
<br>
Damage per hurricane is more important. Global warming already has
a large impact on damage for<br>
reasons given above. Those impacts, especially those arising from
increasing sea level, may accelerate<br>
exponentially, if high fossil fuel emissions continue.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2018/20180917_August2018TemperatureUpdate.pdf">http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20180917_August2018TemperatureUpdate.pdf</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[lots of still pictures Florence mess]<br>
HURRICANE CENTRAL<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-15-allegiant-airlines-flight-hurricane-florence">Allegiant
Airlines Flight Takes Unusual Florence Flight Path</a></b><br>
By Pam Wright<br>
While thousands of commercial airlines gave Hurricane Florence a
wide berth on Friday as the then-Category 1 hurricane slammed into
the Carolinas, an Allegiant Airlines flight took a different track.<br>
Images captured from Flight Aware and shared via Twitter appeared to
show the flight path of Allegiant Flight 2237 traveling through the
hurricane while flying from Bangor, Maine, to Orlando, Florida. But
the airline says the flight was actually flying well above Florence.<br>
Flight data indicates that the McDonnell Douglas MD-80 flew through
the storm at 34,000 feet, at a ground speed of up to 580 mph, the
Points Guy reported.<br>
Storm activity topped out between "20,000 and 25,000 feet," and so
2237 had "10,000 (feet) of clearance," according to Hilarie Grey,
director of corporate communications for the airline. <br>
"Crew reported an entirely smooth, turbulence-free flight," Grey
said. For comparison, hurricane hunters with the Air Force's 53rd
Weather Reconnaissance Squadron fly planes through a hurricane no
faster than 200 mph and no higher than 10,000 feet, hurricane hunter
Capt. Ben Blair told the Wall Street Journal.<br>
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane hunter
flights also fly through the core of hurricanes, but also have
another plane, called the Gulfstream IV that flies at higher
altitudes, between 35,000 and 45,000 feet, said weather.com
meteorologist Jonathan Belles.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-15-allegiant-airlines-flight-hurricane-florence">https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-15-allegiant-airlines-flight-hurricane-florence</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Author Elizabeth Rush reads from her book]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.kuow.org/stories/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise">'Retreat,
or perish in place': First-hand accounts of sea level rise</a></b><br>
BY John O'Brien<br>
SEP 16, 2018<br>
- <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://soundcloud.com/kuow/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise">hour
long audio of reading</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://soundcloud.com/kuow/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise">https://soundcloud.com/kuow/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise</a><br>
Throughout history and pre-history, humans have gravitated toward
coastlines. NASA estimates over one-third of all humans live within
60 miles of an ocean. The majority of the world's megacities are in
coastal zones.<br>
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), nearly 40 percent of the U.S. population lives in
"relatively high-population-density coastal areas."<br>
<br>
From a NOAA report: 'The two major causes of global sea level rise
are thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean (since water
expands as it warms) and increased melting of land-based ice, such
as glaciers and ice sheets. The oceans are absorbing more than 90
percent of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions
from human activity."<br>
<br>
As sea levels rise and coastal populations increase, more people are
subject to flooding. Author Elizabeth Rush compiled research and the
stories of people affected by sea level rise for her new book,
"Rising: Dispatches from the New American Shore." On her website,
Rush says, "My work chronicles communities being irrevocably changed
by late capitalist industrialization."<br>
Rush teaches creative nonfiction at Brown University. She spoke at
The Elliott Bay Book Company on August 17. KUOW's Jennie Cecil Moore
recorded the event.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.kuow.org/stories/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise">https://www.kuow.org/stories/retreat-or-perish-in-place-first-hand-accounts-of-sea-level-rise</a><br>
- - - -<br>
</font> [NYTimes book review]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/books/review/rising-elizabeth-rush.html">Searching
for Language to Capture How Climate Change Has Altered Our World</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/books/review/rising-elizabeth-rush.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/books/review/rising-elizabeth-rush.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[with concrete recommendations ]<br>
<a
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-cement-emissions-matter-for-climate-change"><b>Q&A:
Why cement emissions matter for climate change</b></a><br>
If the cement industry were a country, it would be the third largest
emitter in the world.<br>
In 2015, it generated around 2.8bn tonnes of CO2, equivalent to 8%
of the global total - a greater share than any country other than
China or the US.<br>
Cement use is set to rise as global urbanisation and economic
development increases demand for new buildings and infrastructure.
Along with other parts of the global economy, the cement industry
will need to dramatically cut its emissions to meet the Paris
Agreement's temperature goals. However, only limited progress has
been made so far...<br>
- - - -<br>
Cement emissions depend largely on the proportion of clinker used in
each tonne of cement. The type of fuel and efficiency of equipment
used during clinker production also have an impact.<br>
Meanwhile, the floor area of the world's buildings is projected to
double in the next 40 years. This means cement production is set to
grow to around 5bn tonnes by 2030, a 25% increase from today,
reaching over four times 1990 levels.<br>
<br>
Efficiency gains alone will, therefore, not be enough to
significantly cut the sector's emissions...<br>
- - - -<br>
The IEA and the industry-led Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI)
recently released a new low-carbon roadmap, showing how it considers
emissions can be cut in line with a "2C" scenario and a "below 2C"
scenario. The roadmap assumes cement demand will increase 12-23% by
2050.<br>
For a 2C scenario - in line with 50% chance of limiting global
temperature rise to 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 - the
roadmap says a 24% cut in cement emissions is needed. (It is worth
noting this is not in line with the Paris Agreement, which calls for
temperature rise to stay "well below" 2C at the very least.)...<br>
- - - - <br>
The recently launched Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA)
also wants to improve the environmental credentials of the sector.
It is set to take on the sustainability work done by the CSI in
January 2019.<br>
Several cement firms have also already introduced an internal carbon
price, or have plans to introduce one.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-cement-emissions-matter-for-climate-change">https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-cement-emissions-matter-for-climate-change</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Rock stars]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://buzzbands.la/2018/09/17/warmth-against-global-warming-patti-smith-lucinda-williams-talib-kweli-and-more-at-the-ace/">Warmth
against global warming: Patti Smith, Lucinda Williams, Talib
Kweli and more at the Ace</a></b><br>
STEVE HOCHMAN on September 17th, 2018<br>
Global warming is what brought people together for the Pathway to
Paris concert at the Theater at the Ace Hotel on Sunday. The
multi-artist show -- topped by Patti Smith and featuring Talib
Kweli, Lucinda Williams, Karen O, Eric Burdon, Jim James, Dhani
Harrison, Flea and Tenzin Choegyal among the acts -- was put on by
the titular organization, campaigning since 2014 for the goals of
(and more recently, against our government's break from) the climate
crisis-focused Paris Accord.<br>
<br>
The warmth in the room, though, was a different kind, that of family
and friends and community and purpose, radiating from the stage,
embracing the audience, and circling back around to the clearly
inspired performers. Smith's rock-poet maternal nature was in full
flower, not just with the extended family of fans she always
embraces so tightly, but literally as Pathway was co-founded by her
daughter Jesse Paris Smith with Rebecca Foon, the two of them
serving as co-hosts of the concert and performers on piano and
cello, respectively...<br>
- - - -<br>
Of course there were some speeches and films promoting Pathway and
spotlighting the issues at hand -- most profoundly Bill McKibben of
the environmental group 350.org showing some "vacation slides" of a
recent trip to Greenland, a cell phone video he took from a
helicopter as a big chunk of the ice sheet there calving into the
sea stating the case more strongly than any words could. Though
words of the current record storms sweeping across the Eastern U.S.
and the Philippines and China gave shape to the ideas as well. <br>
And also of course, the night finished with all hand on deck to join
Patti Smith for "People Have the Power" (co-written by Jesse's late
dad, Fred "Sonic" Smith of the MC5), audience on its collective
feet, voices collectively raised, fists collectively pumped.
Heart-warming.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://buzzbands.la/2018/09/17/warmth-against-global-warming-patti-smith-lucinda-williams-talib-kweli-and-more-at-the-ace/">http://buzzbands.la/2018/09/17/warmth-against-global-warming-patti-smith-lucinda-williams-talib-kweli-and-more-at-the-ace/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/09/ecotalk_daily_s.html">This
Day in Climate History - September 18, 2006</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
September 18, 2006: Air America's "EcoTalk with Betsy Rosenberg"
becomes the first radio show focused on green/climate change issues
to go to a daily format in 40 markets.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/09/ecotalk_daily_s.html">http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/09/ecotalk_daily_s.html</a><br>
<br>
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