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<font size="+1"><i>September 29, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[most important]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ff0a02c21d86">Trump
administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by
2100</a></b><br>
By Juliet Eilperin, Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney<br>
September 28 at 3:55 PM<br>
Last month, deep in a 500-page environmental impact statement, the
Trump administration made a startling assumption: On its current
course, the planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees by the end
of this century.<br>
A rise of seven degrees Fahrenheit, or about four degrees Celsius,
compared with preindustrial levels would be catastrophic, according
to scientists. Many coral reefs would dissolve in increasingly
acidic oceans. Parts of Manhattan and Miami would be underwater
without costly coastal defenses. Extreme heat waves would routinely
smother large parts of the globe.<br>
- - - - -<br>
"The amazing thing they're saying is human activities are going to
lead to this rise of carbon dioxide that is disastrous for the
environment and society. And then they're saying they're not going
to do anything about it," said Michael MacCracken, who served as a
senior scientist at the U.S. Global Change Research Program from
1993 to 2002....<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ff0a02c21d86">https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ff0a02c21d86</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[classic video on 6 degrees.. told in just 1:11]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://youtu.be/O8qmaAMK4cM">6
Degrees Warmer: Mass Extinction? | National Geographic</a></b><br>
National Geographic<br>
Published on Feb 1, 2008<br>
If the world warms by six degrees, oceans will turn into marine
wastelands and natural disasters become common events. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/O8qmaAMK4cM">https://youtu.be/O8qmaAMK4cM</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[Classic book of scenarios for each degree of warming only goes to
6]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.amazon.com/Six-Degrees-Future-Hotter-Planet/dp/142620213X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1">Six
Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet Hardcover - January 22,
2008</a></b><br>
Six degrees<br>
<blockquote>The end-Permian mass extinction of 251 million years ago
was associated with six degrees of warming, and wiped out 90% of
life on Earth. Huge firestorms sweep the planet as methane hydrate
fireballs ignite. Seas turn anoxic and release poisonous hydrogen
sulphide. Humanity's very survival as a species in question. <br>
</blockquote>
Notes from Mark Lynas author of Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter
Planet<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.amazon.com/Six-Degrees-Future-Hotter-Planet/dp/142620213X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1">https://www.amazon.com/Six-Degrees-Future-Hotter-Planet/dp/142620213X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Canadian view on costs]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/climate-change-costs-1.4833281">Destructive
weather prompting corporate rethink on ignoring costs of climate
change</a></b><br>
'We ... need to think about how to build resilience,' economist says<br>
Pete Evans - CBC News<br>
Many in Canada's business community are waking up to the realities
of climate change because they are bearing the brunt of paying for
it -- and starting to plan accordingly...<br>
- - - -<br>
Mitigating the impact of natural disasters is often painted as a
cost of doing business. But Atif Kubursi, professor emeritus of
economics at McMaster University in Hamilton, says the investment
community is slowly starting to find a balance between the cost of
action and the opportunity cost of inaction.<br>
"We tend to present the environment as a major cost, and we have to
do it for future generations," he says. "But you can't sell it this
way."...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/climate-change-costs-1.4833281">https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/climate-change-costs-1.4833281</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[WildFires]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wildfires-climate-change-california_us_5b8fedd2e4b0511db3de3d4b">Firefighters
Cope As Climate Change Radically Changes Their Jobs</a></b><br>
"We are not first responders anymore. We are extended responders."<br>
By Chris D'Angelo - 09/12/2018<br>
- - - -<br>
This spike in activity has stretched firefighting resources thin and
brought increased health and safety risks to an inherently dangerous
job.<br>
"We are not first responders anymore," Michael Mohler, deputy
director of Cal Fire, told HuffPost. "We are extended
responders."...<br>
- - - -<br>
Firefighters battling the Pawnee fire noted how unusual it was to
see a wind-driven blaze of that magnitude so early in the summer,
taking it as a troubling sign that California was in for another
busy, and likely deadly, fire season. <br>
"Where are we going to be in July and August?" Albright wondered,
standing among freshly charred trees and brush...<br>
- - - -<br>
"It is clear to me that firefighters are on the frontlines of
climate change," he said<br>
A state climate assessment released last month estimates that the
amount of land that burns annually in California will increase 77
percent by 2100.<br>
As fires grow in size, speed and intensity, fighting flames can
become all but impossible. Expecting firefighters to extinguish some
of these megafires is no different than expecting someone to stop a
powerful hurricane, Mohler said... <br>
- - - -<br>
Mark Brunton, a battalion chief at Cal Fire, said the last five
years have been the "busiest, most complex" of his 31-year career.
It's not uncommon for men and women to be dispatched for a month at
a time. His record is 62 days straight. It wasn't long ago that it
was frowned upon to use vacation days during peak fire season.
"Now," Brunton said, "people take it off for sanity reasons."<br>
"The environmental factors wear on you. The stress wears on you. The
sleep deprivation wears on you. All those things wear on you," he
said. "And when that's constant, it's cumulative."<br>
In mid-August, after two weeks of fighting the Mendocino Complex,
Albright returned home to southern California, exhausted and covered
in poison oak. <br>
"You go home a little more broken than when you come," he said. "You
definitely leave some of yourself up here when you're working."...<br>
- - - - <br>
"This is an extremely dangerous profession, and mother nature can be
very cruel," he said.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wildfires-climate-change-california_us_5b8fedd2e4b0511db3de3d4b">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wildfires-climate-change-california_us_5b8fedd2e4b0511db3de3d4b</a></font><br>
- -- - - <br>
[rarely do firefighters speak up about global warming conditions-
video interview]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hqTXVRaIEs">Facing
Reality: Firefighters on the Climate Frontlines</a></b><br>
August 29, 2018<br>
(47:00 video with transcript available)<br>
"Well what's happening is we're getting weather events that are more
extreme right here<br>
in Southern California.<br>
Last December during the Thomas fire we're what we call a red flag
warning for low<br>
humidities and high winds it lasted for 13 straight days -- that's
unheard of to<br>
have those kinds of conditions for that length of time. It's
happening more and<br>
more our fires are spreading at rates that unlike they've ever
spread.<br>
Firefighters can't get out in front of these fires now and stop them
when they're burning in those conditions.<br>
they're having to back up and find other places to control them at
ridge tops...<br>
<b>We've been studying this and we've consulted the scientists and
we've decided as a group...we're going to be first responders to
global warming</b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hqTXVRaIEs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hqTXVRaIEs</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Climate liability]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/09/27/climate-crisis-litigation-columbia/">Courts
Will Play Key Role in Addressing Climate Crisis, Experts Say</a></b><br>
By Dana Drugmand<br>
A worldwide movement seeking relief and accountability for the
impacts of human-driven climate change through the courts has taken
flight over the past year, and while none of the experts who spoke
about the issue on on two panels in New York City said it would
solve the climate crisis on its own, they agreed it will play an
important rule .<br>
Two events in the lineup of Climate Week NYC demonstrated the
diversity of the climate liability movement, from lawsuits against
national governments and fossil fuel corporations to investigations
of companies for human rights violations and for misleading
shareholders on climate risks. These kinds of approaches are
underway at the municipal, state, national and international
levels...<br>
- -- -<br>
Knowingly selling a harmful product while publicly denying or
downplaying the risk, as fossil fuel companies have allegedly done,
is the kind of corporate wrongdoing that spurred successful
litigation against the tobacco industry and lead paint
manufacturers. Whitehouse drew the comparison to the tobacco
lawsuits in suggesting the possibility of using the federal
Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) law against
fossil fuel companies. He said the discovery phase of the tobacco
litigation exposed deliberate deceit on the part of Big Tobacco, and
that Big Oil may fear a similar fate.<br>
<br>
"While liability is a concern for the fossil fuel industry, in my
view discovery is a more immediate and perhaps more terrifying
concern for the industry," said Whitehouse, who was Rhode Island's
attorney general during the tobacco litigation. "They have worked so
hard, including ExxonMobil now going to the Supreme Court to stop
Attorney General Healey's discovery from going forward, and I think
they're looking at the lessons from the tobacco industry."<br>
<br>
This threat of discovery has prompted a counterattack from Exxon and
its industry allies. Sher referenced an aggressive communications
campaign and a petition in a Texas court claiming the climate
lawsuits are part of a big green conspiracy. "Part of what's going
on here is the nature of the beast. If you start poking the tiger,
you draw a response," he said.<br>
<br>
The set of California cases that Sher is advising is currently
before the Ninth Circuit Court as the fossil fuel companies
challenge District Judge Vince Chhabria's decision to remand the
suits back to state court. Sher told Climate Liability News he is
confident the cases will proceed in state court, where legal experts
believe plaintiffs will have a better shot at succeeding...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/09/27/climate-crisis-litigation-columbia/">https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/09/27/climate-crisis-litigation-columbia/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Why not convert them to public utilities?]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fossil-fuel-industry-political-risks-by-daniel-litvin-2018-09">Storm
Warning for the Fossil-Fuel Industry</a></b><br>
Sep 26, 2018 DANIEL LITVIN<br>
A spate of extreme weather events this year will no doubt intensify
the political pressure on fossil-fuel firms in the coming years. How
oil and gas companies manage their growing political challenges will
be just as important for their valuation as their day-to-day
operations are now...<br>
- - - - <br>
That backlash could come in a variety of forms. Divestment campaigns
are likely to gain steam and attract larger shareholders.
Climate-related lawsuits could begin to extend further beyond the
US, ultimately leading to multi-billion-dollar damage awards, as in
the cases against Big Tobacco. Protest movements to disrupt on-shore
operations could become routine. And governments could decide to
impose moratoriums on new hydrocarbon development, or to levy
punitive taxes on fossil-fuel firms. In fact, the government of New
Zealand recently banned all future offshore oil and gas exploration
- a move that other countries ultimately may follow.<br>
<br>
Why should anyone shed tears for Big Oil and its investors? After
all, many of the political pressures described here are helpful for
tackling climate change, which requires reducing our reliance on
fossil fuels and accelerating the shift to renewable energies.<br>
<br>
Still, an unthinking backlash against fossil-fuel firms could also
have some perverse effects. Politicians may use it to deflect
attention from the slow pace of national energy policy reform. In
most countries, such reform is urgently needed to meet climate
targets. Also, even in a scenario in which the average global
temperature increase is kept within 2Celsius of pre-industrial
levels (the upper limit under the 2015 Paris climate agreement),
fossil fuels will still need to be produced. Like a giant
supertanker, the global energy system cannot be turned around on a
dime. The shift away from fossil fuels will take many years, during
which oil, gas, and coal will remain in demand.<br>
<br>
In light of these realities, one risk of the intensified political
backlash against fossil-fuel firms is that the industry could be
pushed into the shadows. Instead of shrinking in size or focusing on
a transition to renewables, the industry might shift production to
private rather than publicly listed firms. Or production could
migrate to less transparent firms in non-OECD countries.<br>
<br>
In either case, these corporate entities will be less susceptible to
pressure from progressive activists and socially focused investors.
Less scrupulous producers will be happy to keep exploring and
extracting with abandon, because they will feel even less obliged
than the distrusted bosses of Big Oil and Big Coal to demonstrate
that they are helping to reduce GHG emissions. As the movement to
tackle climate change continues to shape its strategy for the years
ahead, this is one risk that it must keep in mind.<br>
Daniel Litvin<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fossil-fuel-industry-political-risks-by-daniel-litvin-2018-09">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fossil-fuel-industry-political-risks-by-daniel-litvin-2018-09</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Insurance industry risk]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/09/27/502707.htm">Businesses
Should Prepare for Consequences of Climate Change, Zurich Says</a></b><br>
By Don Jergler | September 27, 2018<br>
The report, "Managing the impacts of climate change: risk management
responses," was published at the start of Climate Week NYC, a
gathering of investors and public and private leaders in New York
that wraps up this weekend.<br>
The New York event had several authoritative reports and surveys
timed to be released during or around the event.<br>
One such report out this week came from the Task Force on
Climate-related Financial Disclosures in its 2018 Status Report to
the Financial Stability Board. That report shows climate-related
disclosure is becoming mainstream as more firms align their
financial reporting to recommendations by a global task force,
although few disclose the financial impact on the company...<br>
- - - -<br>
"Ultimately these things end up in insurance coverages," she added.<br>
<br>
The report details three steps businesses can follow to develop a
climate resilience adaptation strategy:<br>
<blockquote> Identify the broad business and strategic risks;<br>
Develop a granular view of the risks including individual
locations;<br>
Develop a mitigation strategy involving insurance and resilience,
as well as strategic implications for business models.<br>
</blockquote>
"We don't just want to insure people against an event happening, we
want to make sure whatever the impacts of that event are, it's less
than it would have been," Martin said...<br>
- - - - -<br>
"The opportunity lies in the scalability of low-carbon solutions,
including clean energy and mitigation technologies that can
accelerate this growing market and support the transition of the
global energy sector," the report states. "Simultaneously, this
transition will require significant capital to change a society that
has been dependent on a fossil fuel-based energy system."<br>
<br>
The report draws on information from a 2017 report by the
International Finance Corporation that asserts that climate change
could create investment opportunities amounting to $23 trillion by
2030 in emerging markets alone.<br>
<br>
Martin said the opportunity for the insurance industry is to help
guide businesses through these transitions and to help them asses
their risks, all while being an expert voice on risk management and
insurance that companies can lean on.<br>
<br>
"Climate change is one of the most complex, interconnected risks
that the world faces," Martin said.<br>
<font size="-1"><span class="moz-txt-link-freetext"><a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/09/27/502707.htm">https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/09/27/502707.htm</a></span></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/EnergyIssues3">This
Day in Climate History - September 29, 2000</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
September 29, 2000: In an apparent effort to convince moderate
voters not to support Democratic opponent Al Gore, GOP presidential
candidate George W. Bush delivers an energy speech implying that he
will pursue efforts to reduce carbon pollution as president. Bush
would go on to abandon this implied promise during his tenure in the
White House.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/EnergyIssues3">http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/EnergyIssues3</a><br>
<br>
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