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<font size="+1"><i>October 4, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[Washington Post]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/03/climate-scientists-are-struggling-find-right-words-very-bad-news/?utm_term=.e3b245e478be">Climate
scientists are struggling to find the right words for very bad
news</a></b><br>
A much-awaited report from the U.N.'s top climate science panel will
show an enormous gap between where we are and where we need to be to
prevent dangerous levels of warming.<br>
VHris Mooney and Brady Dennis - October 3<br>
In Incheon, South Korea, this week, representatives of over 130
countries and about 50 scientists have packed into a large
conference center going over every line of an all-important report:
What chance does the planet have of keeping climate change to a
moderate, controllable level?<br>
<br>
When they can't agree, they form "contact groups" outside the hall,
trying to strike an agreement and move the process along. They are
trying to reach consensus on what it would mean -- and what it would
take -- to limit the warming of the planet to just 1.5 degrees
Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, when 1 degree Celsius has
already occurred and greenhouse gas emissions remain at record
highs...<br>
- - - -<br>
"Half a degree doesn't sound like much til you put it in the right
context," said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for
Governance and Sustainable Development. "It's 50 percent more than
we have now."<br>
The idea of letting warming approach 2 degrees Celsius increasingly
seems disastrous in this context...<br>
- - - -<br>
An early draft (leaked and published by the website Climate Home
News) suggests that future scenarios of a 1.5 C warming limit would
require the massive deployment of technologies to remove carbon
dioxide from the air and bury it below the ground. Such technologies
do not exist at anything close to the scale that would be required.<br>
<br>
"There are now very small number of pathways [to 1.5C] that don't
involve carbon removal," said Jim Skea, chair of the IPCC's Working
Group III and a professor at Imperial College London.<br>
It's not clear how scientists can best give the world's governments
this message -- or to what extent governments are up for hearing it.<br>
<br>
An early leaked draft of the report said there was a "very high
risk" that the world would warm more than 1.5 degrees. But a later
draft, also leaked to Climate Home News, appeared to back off,
instead saying that "there is no simple answer to the question of
whether it is feasible to limit warming to 1.5 C . . . feasibility
has multiple dimensions that need to be considered simultaneously
and systematically."<br>
<br>
None of this language is final. That's what this week in Incheon --
intended to get the report ready for an official release on Monday
-- is all about.<br>
"I think many people would be happy if we were further along than we
are," the IPCC's Lynn said Wednesday morning in Incheon. "But in all
the approval sessions that I've seen, I've seen five of them now,
that has always been the case. It sort of gets there in the end."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/03/climate-scientists-are-struggling-find-right-words-very-bad-news/?utm_term=.e3b245e478be">https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/03/climate-scientists-are-struggling-find-right-words-very-bad-news/?utm_term=.e3b245e478be</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[draft report leaked]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/13/leaked-draft-summary-un-special-report-1-5c-climate-goal-full/">Leaked
draft summary of UN special report on 1.5C climate goal - in
full</a></b><br>
Read the draft summary for policymakers of the most important
climate science report of the year, on the challenge of holding
global warming to 1.5C <br>
Climate Home News is one of the world's most trusted independent
sources of climate politics news. <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/newsletter-sign-up/">Sign
up for our newsletter</a>.<br>
- - - - -<br>
The draft report, which was publicly available on the US federal
register over the past month, is open to review by experts and
governments until 25 February on the IPCC website. Relevant studies
published in journals by 15 May may be included in the final version
and modify its conclusions.<br>
<br>
After media reports on the summary in January, the IPCC released a
statement.<br>
Draft reports are provided to reviewers as working documents. They
are not intended for public distribution, and must not be quoted or
cited for the following reasons:<br>
<blockquote>- Firstly, the text can change substantially between the
Second Order Draft and the final version once the report's authors
have carefully considered every individual government and expert
review comment. For instance, the First Order Draft of this report
received 12,895 comments from nearly 500 expert reviewers. Like
any work in progress, it is important to respect the authors and
give them the time and space to finish writing before making the
work public.<br>
<br>
- Secondly, the Second Order Draft is based on scientific
literature published or submitted for publication before 1
November 2017. Newly published scientific evidence highlighted by
reviewers can still be taken into account between the Second Order
Draft and the final version of the report, as long as it is
accepted for publication in a journal before 15 May 2018.<br>
</blockquote>
Drafts of the report are, therefore, collective works in progress
that do not necessarily represent the IPCC's final assessment of the
state of knowledge.<br>
The IPCC is committed to an open, robust and transparent assessment
process. In each stage of review, the Working Groups actively seek
the collaboration of researchers and practitioners across a broad
range of expertise. As with the normal practice of peer review, this
process is designed to make the report more accurate, comprehensive
and objective.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/13/leaked-draft-summary-un-special-report-1-5c-climate-goal-full/">http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/13/leaked-draft-summary-un-special-report-1-5c-climate-goal-full/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[study further]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181003134507.htm">A
warmer spring leads to less plant growth in summer</a></b><br>
Date: October 3, 2018<br>
Source: Vienna University of Technology<br>
Summary: Due to climate change, springtime growth begins earlier
each year. Up to now, it was thought that this phenomenon was
slowing climate change. However, as evaluations of satellite data
have now shown, the opposite is the case.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181003134507.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181003134507.htm</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Paul Beckwith video lecture 15 mins]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMra7pPFqmE">Profound
Climate Mayhem With NO Arctic Sea-Ice</a></b><br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Published on Oct 3, 2018<br>
In a few years we face a world with NO Arctic sea-ice. Profound
climate and weather changes will profoundly disrupt human societies,
eg. severe global food shortages. In previous videos I discussed
timeframes and trajectories for a zero sea-ice state, and a shift of
the center-of-cold by 17 degrees latitude. Now, and next video I
delve into heat capacity changes with spiking Arctic warming,
magnified ocean waves bringing heat from depth, destabilizing
Greenlands glaciers; also wind reversals, monsoon effects, and
bubbling methane.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMra7pPFqmE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMra7pPFqmE</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Desert flooding]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/10/02/climate-impact-flooding-arizona-rosa/">Not
Your Expected Climate Impact: Arizona Flooded by a Tropical
Storm</a></b><br>
By Ucilia Wang<br>
As Tropical Storm Rosa rolls through Arizona, dousing desert towns
with heavy rains and filling reservoirs nearly depleted by a lengthy
drought, the storm's arrival is also a message from the sky about
the impact of climate change: it can produce weird weather that in
ancient times might have been attributed to angry gods.<br>
Now, however, the unusual sight of flooded streets in Arizona can be
explained by science.<br>
"There's a climate change component to it and we can say that with
confidence," said Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the National
Center for Atmospheric Research.<br>
<br>
Global warming has raised ocean temperatures and warmed the air
above it, supercharging storms with moisture that they unleash in
bigger rainfalls. Researchers now have enough data to connect the
dots between increasing greenhouse gas emissions, greater moisture
in the air and outsized rainstorms, Trenberth said.<br>
<b>The air above the ocean can hold 4 percent more moisture for
every degree Fahrenheit and scientists have found about 5-20
percent more moisture gathered in the air since the 1970s, T</b>renberth
said. The result played out last month when Hurricane Florence
doused parts of the Carolinas with 30 inches of rain.<br>
"The main effects are the storms are more intense and last longer,
and the rain is heavier. In Hurricane Florence, we have all three
effects in play," he said...<br>
- - -- <br>
"Hurricanes usually lose strength once they hit California. But the
risk to the southern part of the state may increase a little bit
because water is warmer, so hurricanes won't lose strength as
quickly," Trenberth said.<br>
One of the issues facing people in the path of these wetter
hurricanes is that traditional home insurance does not cover damage
from flooding, leaving people facing huge financial losses.
Insurance experts have estimated that Hurricane Florence will
produce insured losses of up to $5 billion. But according to risk
modeling firm RMS, 70 percent of losses will be uninsured because
much of the flooding happened inland, where people do not have flood
coverage.<br>
Florence sent tens of thousands of people into shelters across the
Carolinas, causing major power outages and leading to the dozens of
deaths, including 37 in North Carolina.<br>
A computer model of Florence, based on data taken before it made
landfall, showed that climate change was likely to boost its
rainfall by 50 percent.<br>
Rosa began as a Category 4 hurricane but lost its power before it
made landfall in Baja California, Mexico as a tropical storm on
Monday night.<br>
The rating system refers to wind speed and not rainfall, however,
prompting debates over whether it can cause people to underestimate
the true impact of a storm. Florence was downgraded from Category 4
to Category 1 before landfall, but the water it brought inflicted
far more pain than the wind.<br>
While Rosa wowed desert dwellers with rain, meteorologists pointed
to another unusual phenomenon Tuesday: two Category 5 hurricanes
simultaneously crossing the Pacific.<br>
<br>
"Simultaneous Cat 5s are very rare, and this is the first time in
the historical record that Cat 5s have existed simultaneously in the
Northwest Pacific and Northeast Pacific," wrote Jeff Masters,
co-founder of Weather Underground. <br>
The rain unleashed by Rosa was creating rarely seen sights of
flooded streets in Phoenix and other cities in central Arizona. The
weather service said Phoenix, with 2.24 inches of rain on Tuesday,
experienced the second wettest October day and the "ninth wettest
day ever (so far)."<br>
Flat and dry landscapes don't need much rain to create floods,
Trenberth said, because the super dry soil of the Southwest doesn't
soak up rain well.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/10/02/climate-impact-flooding-arizona-rosa/">https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/10/02/climate-impact-flooding-arizona-rosa/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Communicating Global Warming ]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/guides">GUIDES
Download Breakthrough's new short guide series.</a></b><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/guides"><br>
</a>ABOUT A NEW WAY OF WORKING ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS<br>
actions to re-instate natural climate processes that generate global
average temperatures and ocean<br>
acidity that are safe for all species and for civilisation. (ie.
preindustrial temperatures & acidity). Safe climate restoration
<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/guides">https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/guides</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/world/asia/04climate.html?_r=0">This
Day in Climate History - October 4, 2009</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
October 4, 2009: The New York Times reports on India's efforts to
address climate change:<br>
<blockquote>"India's public stance on climate change is usually
predictable -- predictably obstinate and unwilling to compromise,
at least according to many industrialized nations. But at the
United Nations, India’s delegation toned down its usual criticisms
of the industrialized world, presented new plans to reduce India’s
emissions and sought to reposition the country, in the words of
the environment minister, as a 'deal maker,' not a 'deal
breaker.'"<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/world/asia/04climate.html?_r=0">http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/world/asia/04climate.html?_r=0</a> <br>
<br>
<br>
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