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<font size="+1"><i>October 8, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[First, the Prize]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/08/nobel-prize-2018-sveriges-riksbank-in-economic-sciences-awarded-live-updates">Nobel
prize in economics won by Nordhaus and Romer for work on climate
change and growth - as it happened</a></b><br>
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded to
two American men for work on climate change and sustainable growth<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/08/nobel-prize-2018-sveriges-riksbank-in-economic-sciences-awarded-live-updates?page=with:block-5bbb2d12e4b0494d8052c779#block-5bbb2d12e4b0494d8052c779">Why
they won</a><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/08/nobel-prize-2018-sveriges-riksbank-in-economic-sciences-awarded-live-updates?page=with:block-5bbb2cd1e4b0b8830be6b96c#block-5bbb2cd1e4b0b8830be6b96c">The
official announcement</a><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/08/nobel-prize-2018-sveriges-riksbank-in-economic-sciences-awarded-live-updates?page=with:block-5bbb2d12e4b0494d8052c779#block-5bbb2d12e4b0494d8052c779">Romer:
Climate change crisis can be fixed, if we work at it</a><br>
- - - -<br>
[BBC says]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309">Climate
report: Scientists politely urge 'act now, idiots'</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309">https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[NYTimes$]<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html"><b>Major
Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as
2040</b></a><br>
By Coral Davenport - Oct. 7, 2018<br>
INCHEON, South Korea -- A landmark report from the United Nations’
scientific panel on climate change paints a far more dire picture of
the immediate consequences of climate change than previously thought
and says that avoiding the damage requires transforming the world
economy at a speed and scale that has "no documented historic
precedent."<br>
<br>
The report, issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations
to guide world leaders, describes a world of worsening food
shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon
as 2040 -- a period well within the lifetime of much of the global
population.<br>
<br>
The report "is quite a shock, and quite concerning," said Bill Hare,
an author of previous I.P.C.C. reports and a physicist with Climate
Analytics, a nonprofit organization. "We were not aware of this just
a few years ago." The report was the first to be commissioned by
world leaders under the Paris agreement, the 2015 pact by nations to
fight global warming.<br>
<br>
The authors found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the
current rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 2.7 degrees
Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by 2040,
inundating coastlines and intensifying droughts and poverty.
Previous work had focused on estimating the damage if average
temperatures were to rise by a larger number, 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit
(2 degrees Celsius), because that was the threshold scientists
previously considered for the most severe effects of climate
change...<br>
- - - -- <br>
At 3.6 degrees of warming, the report predicts a "disproportionately
rapid evacuation" of people from the tropics. "In some parts of the
world, national borders will become irrelevant," said Aromar Revi,
director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements and an author
of the report. "You can set up a wall to try to contain 10,000 and
20,000 and one million people, but not 10 million."<br>
<br>
The report also finds that, in the likelihood that governments fail
to avert 2.7 degrees of warming, another scenario is possible: The
world could overshoot that target, heat up by more than 3.6 degrees,
and then through a combination of lowering emissions and deploying
carbon capture technology, bring the temperature back down below the
2.7-degree threshold.<br>
<br>
In that scenario, some damage would be irreversible, the report
found. All coral reefs would die. However, the sea ice that would
disappear in the hotter scenario would return once temperatures had
cooled off.<br>
<br>
"For governments, the idea of overshooting the target but then
coming back to it is attractive because then they don’t have to make
such rapid changes," Dr. Shindell said. "But it has a lot of
disadvantages."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html</a><br>
- - - -</font><br>
<b>[</b><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">IPCC report</a></b><b>]<br>
Read the report<br>
</b><font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/</a></font><br>
<br>
[IPCC press conference: "risk is revised upward" ]<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://youtu.be/12S3dKrxj7c?t=630">IPCC
SR15 Press Conference Live Oct 8th 2018</a><br>
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)<br>
Incheon, South Korea<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/12S3dKrxj7c?t=658">https://youtu.be/12S3dKrxj7c?t=658</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[HuffPo]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ipcc-report_us_5bba177be4b0876eda9ef1d7">New
UN Climate Report Dims Hope For Averting Catastrophic Global
Warming</a></b><br>
Keeping temperatures from rising beyond the Paris agreement’s
ambitious target will require unprecedented social changes.<br>
By Alexander C. Kaufman and Chris D’Angelo<br>
“This is one of the most important reports ever produced by the
IPCC, and certainly one of the most needed,” Hoesung Lee, the chair
of the body, said at a press conference in South Korea on Monday.
“Climate change is already affecting people, livelihood and
ecosystems all around the world.”<br>
He continued: “Every bit of warming matters.”<br>
The report ― authored by 91 researchers and editors from 40
countries citing more than 6,000 scientific references and released
Sunday night following a summit in Incheon, South Korea ― details
how difficult it will be to keep the planet from warming beyond the
1.5-degree target, considered the aspirational goal of the 2015
Paris climate accord. <br>
To meet that target, the world would need to aggressively phase out
fossil fuels to meet net-zero emissions by mid-century, and remove
carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases out of the atmosphere
from then on, according to the IPCC. More immediately, emissions
would have to drop by about 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ipcc-report_us_5bba177be4b0876eda9ef1d7">https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ipcc-report_us_5bba177be4b0876eda9ef1d7</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Blue Virginia]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://bluevirginia.us/2018/10/required-reading-for-governor-ralph-northam-on-climate-change">Required
Reading for Governor Ralph Northam on Climate Change</a></b><br>
By glenbesa - October 7, 2018 <br>
(Later tonight, it is anticipated that) the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change will issue its Summary for Policymakers of its
Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C. <br>
This report should be a required reading for all of us, but
especially for public officials, including Governor Ralph Northam,
who have the authority to make policy that can reduce our carbon
pollution emissions.<br>
Although the Paris Climate Accord set a goal of keeping the global
average temperature increase below 2C, that agreement also
acknowledged that countries should actually strive to limit that
increase to 1.5C to minimize the harm done by global warming.<br>
<br>
Climate science has advanced since the 2015 UN climate conference in
Paris. Climate scientists realize that the 1.5C target should no
longer be just aspirational if we are to avoid unacceptable
consequences of a warming climate. Our own anecdotal experiences
with extreme weather events, sea level rise and the shrinking arctic
ice associated with the current 1C increase make it clear that we
have no time to spare in moving away from fossil fuels and taking
other bold action to reduce greenhouse gases...<br>
- - - -<br>
In anticipation of the issuance of the IPCC report, Auden Schendler
and Andrew P. Jones commented on the findings in a column this
weekend in the New York Times entitled: Stopping Climate Change Is
Hopeless. Let's Do It. - It begins with how we live our lives every
moment of every day.<br>
<br>
The column is an answer to, albeit not a direct acknowledgement of,
the news last week out of the Trump Administration justifying its
abandoning climate protection measures. The draft statement by the
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration justifying President
Trump's decision to reverse federal fuel-efficiency standards for
cars and light trucks argued that with a 4C increase by 2100 already
cooked into the climate, "the planet's fate is… sealed."...<br>
- - - -<br>
While well intended, Governor Northam's recently announced climate
initiatives to look at possible actions to address climate polluting
emissions from cars and trucks and fracked gas infrastructure are
far too modest. The Governor's directive to reduce emissions from
fossil fuel power plants is more significant, yet will take decades
to reverse the harm done to our climate by the two fracked-gas
pipelines he supports.<br>
<br>
Taking Governor Northam at his word that he sincerely wants to
implement meaningful actions to address climate change, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Summary for Policymakers
of its Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C should be a call to
action for real, immediate and significant efforts within the
Governor's authority to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Those
actions should start, but not end, with shutting down the Atlantic
Coast and Mountain Valley Pipelines.<br>
<br>
Here's hoping that Governor Northam and everyone else take the time
to read the IPCC's new report and then do what is within their power
to reduce the greenhouse gas pollution that is choking our planet.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://bluevirginia.us/2018/10/required-reading-for-governor-ralph-northam-on-climate-change">http://bluevirginia.us/2018/10/required-reading-for-governor-ralph-northam-on-climate-change</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Opinion]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/410295-our-climate-is-not-for-sale">Our
climate is not for sale</a></b><br>
BY REP. HANK JOHNSON (D-GA.) AND MICHAEL SHANK, OPINION CONTRIBUTORS
- 10/07/18<br>
As President Trump's Environmental Protection Agency drops "climate
change", and its impact on children, from its latest rule on
hydrofluorocarbons, it is time to talk honestly about science.<br>
Americans are busy working, taking care of their kids and loved ones
and trying to save for the future. It is understandable that many do
not have time to read academic journals and detailed scientific
reports.<br>
In our system of government, representatives are elected to make
decisions on key policy matters. But elected representatives are no
different than the people who elect them. With a congressional
district representing, on average, more than 700,000 constituents
and hundreds of pressing issues, it can be hard to find time to
consult with climate science experts or empirically analyze academic
articles on climate change. <br>
Elected representatives, however, have a unique responsibility to
educate themselves about important policy matters. Ignorance is not
an excuse, given the staff and other resources at the disposal of
Congress. Worse, willful ignorance -- often for crass political
purposes -- is a dereliction of duty and a disservice to the
American people.<br>
It is therefore inexcusable that some members of Congress and other
politicians continue to ignore or plead ignorance to the irrefutable
science, and dangers, of climate change...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/410295-our-climate-is-not-for-sale">https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/410295-our-climate-is-not-for-sale</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Opinion South Africa]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-10-05-the-avengers-climate-change-and-the-need-for-tough-decisions/">The
Avengers, climate change and the need for tough decisions</a></b><br>
By Dr Prabhat Upadhyaya - 5 October 2018<br>
Ahead of the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change's Global Warming of 1.5C report, the time to make tough
decisions is upon us. <br>
<br>
The movie Avengers: Infinity War charts the attempts of Marvel
universe' superheroes to thwart the mad titan Thanos from collecting
the six cosmic "infinity stones" for completing the infinity
gauntlet. Once completed, the gauntlet would give him the power to
destroy half of a planet's living beings literally with the snap of
a finger. Thanos' ultimate goal is a universe devoid of suffering.<br>
<br>
Sounds implausible, but in the movie, Thanos himself explains his
motivation: The Universe is finite; its resources are finite; if
life is left unchecked, it will cease to exist, and therefore it
needs correction. From his perspective the required correction is a
random, dispassionate and fair genocide. This drives his decision.<br>
<br>
In his attempt to find a way to stop Thanos, the master of mystic
arts, Doctor Strange, uses the time stone for travelling into the
future. He views the possible alternate future scenarios - all
14,000,605 of them - and concludes that there is only one in which
Thanos can be stopped. This one scenario determined a fundamental
decision that Strange takes, which is expected to influence the
future movies of the Marvel universe.<br>
<br>
This is fiction, but as a metaphor it is a useful tool when
considering the steep challenge posed by climate change to all of us
and the necessity to take tough decisions that it will demand from
us.<br>
<br>
In its latest report, Unlocking the Inclusive Growth Story of the
21st Century, the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate
emphasises that there is only one economic path that is sustainable
- "one where growth is driven by the interaction between
technological innovation, sustainable infrastructure investment, and
increased resource productivity". This path is based on five key
economic systems:<br>
<blockquote>clean energy systems,<br>
smarter urban development,<br>
sustainable land use,<br>
wise water management, and a circular industrial economy.<br>
</blockquote>
In the commission's own words, "this is the only growth story of the
21st century" that can safely take us to a New Climate Economy.<br>
The commission also emphasises that if we do not make a decisive
shift now in pursuing growth and development, by 2030 we will pass
the point by which we can keep the global average temperature rise
to well below 2 Deg C - a target agreed under the Paris Agreement.
Describing the next two to three years as the "use it or lose it
moment", they argue that the logic underlying policy and investment
decisions needs to be fundamentally revisited.<br>
<br>
However, the decision-making for enabling climate action continues
to be slow and cumbersome across countries. This is not to say that
national climate policies are not in place, but that they are not
ambitious enough. The report says that policy-makers in most
countries "still have the handbrake on"; a phrase that echoes the
frustration of common citizen and activists across South Africa and
in other developing countries. It chastises policy-makers for "not
taking sufficiently bold action to escape the legacy economic
systems" and stresses that we are at a point where we need to start
making tough decisions.<br>
<br>
The parallels with the Infinity War continue to resonate here.
During the course of Avengers: Infinity War, characters are called
upon to make tough decisions when facing irresolvable moral
dilemmas, particularly those related to trading lives. Flowing from
his realisation that there is only one favourable scenario is Doctor
Strange's fundamental decision to let go of the time stone -
something that he is duty bound to save with his life - to save Iron
Man from Thanos.<br>
<br>
Similarly, for addressing threats posed by climate change, tough
decisions are now needed both at the individual and policy-making
levels. The sooner we - individuals, communities, organisations -
come to terms with the seriousness and urgency of climate change,
the more we can put pressure on policy-makers to act on climate
change. The sooner policy-makers factor in the realities of climate
change in their decision-making, the greater the chance of avoiding
dangerous impacts of climate change.<br>
<br>
While individual action can drive action from the bottom up,
decisions on governing climate change need to be made at multiple
levels - international, national, sub-national and local. The Paris
Agreement is built on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
made by countries and provides us with a global agreement that is
complemented by national legislations and strategies.<br>
<br>
But various scientific analyses show that these commitments, even if
implemented fully, won't be enough to maintain the temperature rise
within the safe limits of 1.5 Deg C above pre-industrial levels, as
already prescribed by the science. We need to urgently modify old
and create new systems to meet our production and consumption
demands across key economic sectors.<br>
<br>
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and national
governments are currently finalising a special report on the
implications of breaching 1.5 Deg C temperature rise for humankind
and for the planet Earth. Some of the authors involved in the
process are indicating that we are "nowhere near on track" to avoid
warming beyond the 1.5 Deg C target.<br>
<br>
While time is not going to be on our side, key decisions need to be
taken. The report recommends a people-centred approach to ensure
lasting, equitable growth to ensure a just transition. Our political
elites need to create mechanisms that are people-centric to develop
the trust that will allow them to take hard decisions. Politically
these are going to be unpopular decisions in the short term as they
need to challenge vested interests such as coal and the Minerals
Energy Complex. However, these are unavoidable if South Africa wants
to break the shackles of an anachronistic economic system.<br>
<br>
Take a moment to reflect how clean, smart, sustainable, wise, and
circular our individual choices driving our economic systems are.
That will give an indication of the task ahead for us in each of
these economic spheres. We need to make some very important and
fundamental policy and investment choices that address structural
inequities. Not in the next 100 years, not by the next generation,
but in each year going forward, we will all be called upon to make
choices and find innovative solutions for addressing climate change.<br>
<br>
We do not have access to any magic to control time or change
reality, but in these fundamental choices, we have the
opportunities. More specifically, in the interaction between
technological innovation, sustainable infrastructure investments and
increased resource productivity, we also have the tools that need to
be boldly and urgently mobilised to address the most important moral
challenge of our time - creating a people-centric new climate
economy. DM<br>
<br>
Dr Prabhat Upadhyaya is Senior Policy Analyst, Climate and Energy,
with WWF South Africa.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-10-05-the-avengers-climate-change-and-the-need-for-tough-decisions/">https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-10-05-the-avengers-climate-change-and-the-need-for-tough-decisions/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[video]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="https://youtu.be/40xW0GPy-HE">Young
Scientist: Can We Change? [Avoid Catastrophic Consequences]</a></b><br>
Climate State<br>
Published on Oct 6, 2018<br>
The second installment of Dr. Aaron Thierry's three part exploration
of our critical place in the climate change story, delivered at the
University of Sheffield. Here Dr. Thierry investigates whether or
not it is possible for human society to make the changes necessary
to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate change.<br>
Part 1: The Risks and Realities of Climate Change. Must We Change? <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMkYInlh85c">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMkYInlh85c</a><br>
Part 2: (above)<br>
Part 3: Will We Change? Courage in the Anthropocene <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/sweGNovBir8">https://youtu.be/sweGNovBir8</a><br>
<blockquote>The Carbon Neutral University Network is an open network
of students, staff and the general public committed to encouraging
and developing solutions to support the University of Sheffield to
become Carbon Neutral by 2025. <br>
</blockquote>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/40xW0GPy-HE">https://youtu.be/40xW0GPy-HE</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html">This
Day in Climate History - October 8, 1979</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
October 8, 1979: People Magazine reports on growing concerns about a
human-caused climate crisis.<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://people.com/archive/co2-could-change-our-climate-and-flood-the-earth-up-to-here-vol-12-no-15/">CO2
Could Change Our Climate and Flood the Earth--Up to Here</a><br>
The scenario reads like an Irwin Allen disaster movie. Early in the
21st century, carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere thickens
ominously. The CO2 admits sunlight but prevents escape of heat from
the planet's surface, creating a situation known as the "greenhouse
effect." Average temperatures increase, from 3 to 20F, melting ice
at the poles. Oceans rise everywhere by perhaps 20 feet, inundating
coastal cities. Some 25 percent of the world's population must flee
to higher ground. Food shortages follow. All is chaos...<br>
- - - -<br>
With CO2, MacDonald is of course presenting the worst case scenario
with great flair..."MacDonald realizes that if he is wrong, his
warnings will sound ridiculous. If not, world catastrophe will
result--"not 200 years from now but within our lifetime."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html">http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
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