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<font size="+1"><i>October 9, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[Courts pushing for change]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/dutch-appeals-court-upholds-landmark-climate-change-ruling">Dutch
appeals court upholds landmark climate change ruling</a></b><br>
Netherlands ordered to increase emissions cuts in historic ruling
that puts 'all world governments on notice'<br>
A court in The Hague has upheld a historic legal order on the Dutch
government to accelerate carbon emissions cuts, a day after the
world's climate scientists warned that time was running out to avoid
dangerous warming.<br>
Appeal court judges ruled that the severity and scope of the climate
crisis demanded greenhouse gas reductions of at least 25% by 2020 -
measured against 1990 levels - higher than the 17% drop planned by
Mark Rutte's liberal administration.<br>
The ruling - which was greeted with whoops and cheers in the
courtroom - will put wind in the sails of a raft of similar cases
being planned around the world, from Norway to New Zealand and from
the UK to Uganda.<br>
Marjan Minnesma, the director of the Urgenda campaign which brought
the case, called on political leaders to start fighting climate
change rather than court actions.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/dutch-appeals-court-upholds-landmark-climate-change-ruling">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/dutch-appeals-court-upholds-landmark-climate-change-ruling</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Never too late to start the race]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/ipcc-special-report-on-1-5oc/">Responding
to climate change is far more like a marathon than a sprint.</a></b><br>
The IPCC 1.5C Special report (#SR15) has been released:<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://ipcc.ch/pdf/session48/pr_181008_P48_spm_en.pdf">The
press release</a><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_faq.pdf">Frequently
Asked Questions</a><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf">The
Summary For Policy Makers (SPM)</a><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">The
full report</a><br>
Thoughts<br>
It's well worth reading the SPM and FAQs before confidently
pronouncing on the utility or impact of this report. The FAQs
include the following questions:<br>
<blockquote>FAQ 1.1: Why are we talking about 1.5C?<br>
FAQ 1.2: How close are we to 1.5C?<br>
FAQ 2.1: What kind of pathways limit warming to 1.5C and are we on
track?<br>
FAQ 2.2: What do energy supply and demand have to do with limiting
warming to 1.5C?<br>
FAQ 3.1: What are the impacts of 1.5C and 2C of warming?<br>
FAQ 4.1: What transitions could enable limiting global warming to
1.5C?<br>
FAQ 4.2: What are Carbon Dioxide Removal and negative emissions?<br>
FAQ 4.3: Why is adaptation important in a 1.5C warmer world?<br>
FAQ 5.1: What are the connections between sustainable development
and limiting global warming to 1.5C?<br>
FAQ 5.2: What are the pathways to achieving poverty reduction and
reducing inequalities while reaching the 1.5C world?<br>
</blockquote>
First thing to remember is that this special report was commissioned
from the UNFCCC on the back of the Paris Accord (which is not the
process for main IPCC reports). Secondly, the IPCC is constrained to
only assess published literature or otherwise publically available
data. This means that if no groups have studied a question, there
isn't much to assess. Sometimes the gaps are apparent even in the
scoping of the reports which can encourage people to focus on them
at an early stage and have publications ready in time for the final
report, but one of the main impacts of any of these reports is to
influence research directions going forward.<br>
-- - <br>
<b>What does 1.5 degrees C mean?</b><br>
The SR15 has defined 1.5C as the warming from the period 1850-1900.
This is 2.7F and about 1/3rd of an ice age unit (the amount of
warming from the depths of the last ice age 20,000 years ago to the
mid-19th Century).<br>
- -<br>
This baseline is not really "pre-industrial", and there have been
some interesting discussions on what that phrase might be usefully
defined as (Hawkins et al ,2017; Schurer et al, 2017), but this
baseline is the easiest to adopt since estimates of climate impacts
are being based on climate models from CMIP5 which effectively use
that same baseline. The timing of projected impacts is a little
sensitive to definitional issues with the "global mean" temperature,
and whether the instrumental record is biased with respect to
changes in the mean - particularly in the earlier part of the record
when the data is relatively sparse.<br>
- - - <br>
At current rates, we'll hit 1.5C on a decadal-average basis by about
2040. The first year above 1.5C will occur substantially earlier,
likely associated with a big El Nino event in the late 2020s/early
2030s...[more]<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/ipcc-special-report-on-1-5oc/">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/ipcc-special-report-on-1-5oc/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[<b>it's about 3</b> - important video says it could be 2 or 4 or
even 5 ] <br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7-4wOs2AmI">The Most
Important Number in Climate Change</a></b><br>
YaleClimateConnections<br>
Published on Oct 8, 2018<br>
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is the measure of how much the
planet will warm in response to a given amount of Greenhouse gas
pollution. It is the most important number in climate change
science, and past estimates of increased warming may have been too
low.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7-4wOs2AmI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7-4wOs2AmI</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45738136">Vietnam's
children and the fear of climate change</a></b><br>
By David Shukman<br>
BBC Science editor, Can Tho Province, Vietnam<br>
One little girl draws a nightmarish picture of people calling for
rescue as they drown in rising water.<br>
Another sketches a huge snake with sharp teeth to show the power and
danger of flooding.<br>
These disturbing images are the work of children at a primary school
in Can Tho province, a region of Vietnam that is regularly swamped.<br>
They live in the Mekong Delta, a huge plain of rivers and
rice-fields that's popular with tourists but lies only just above
the surface of the ocean.<br>
The land itself is sinking and, at the same time, the level of the
sea is rising, as global warming causes the water to expand and the
ice caps to melt.<br>
That's why the delta, one of the world's greatest centres for rice
production and home to 18 million people, is recognised as
especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change.<br>
- - - - -<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45738136">https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45738136</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[New York Post carried this story]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://nypost.com/2018/10/08/terrifying-climate-change-warning-12-years-until-were-doomed/">Terrifying
climate change warning: 12 years until we're doomed</a></b><br>
By Lia Eustachewich<br>
Earth is on track to face devastating consequences of climate change
-- extreme drought, food shortages and deadly flooding -- unless
there's an "unprecedented" effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by 2030, a new United Nations report warns.<br>
The planet's surface has already warmed by 1 degree Celsius (1.8
degrees Fahrenheit) and could see a catastrophic 1.5 C (2.7 F)
increase between 2030 and 2052, scientists say.<br>
<br>
"This is concerning because we know there are so many more problems
if we exceed 1.5 degrees C global warming, including more heat waves
and hot summers, greater sea level rise, and, for many parts of the
world, worse droughts and rainfall extremes," Andrew King, a climate
science academic at the University of Melbourne, said in a statement
to CNN.<br>
<br>
The stunning statistics were released Monday in a report by the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which
warned that we must make "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented
changes in all aspects of society" in order to save our planet.<br>
Scientists with the Nobel Prize-winning IPCC said that in order to
have even a 50-50 chance of staying under the 1.5-degree cap, the
world must become "carbon neutral" by 2050. Any additional carbon
dioxide emissions would require removing the harmful gas from the
air...[more]<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://nypost.com/2018/10/08/terrifying-climate-change-warning-12-years-until-were-doomed/">https://nypost.com/2018/10/08/terrifying-climate-change-warning-12-years-until-were-doomed/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[BBC said]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309">Climate
report: Scientists politely urge 'act now, idiots'</a></b><br>
By Matt McGrath<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309">It's
the final call, say scientists, the most extensive warning yet on
the risks of rising global temperatures.</a><br>
Their dramatic report on keeping that rise under 1.5 degrees C
states that the world is now completely off track, heading instead
towards 3C.<br>
Staying below 1.5C will require "rapid, far-reaching and
unprecedented changes in all aspects of society".<br>
<br>
It will be hugely expensive, the report says, but the window of
opportunity is not yet closed.<br>
<br>
After three years of research and a week of haggling between
scientists and government officials at a meeting in South Korea, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a
special report on the impact of global warming of 1.5C.<br>
Fast fashion is harming the planet, MPs say<br>
Vietnam's children and the fear of climate change<br>
The critical 33-page Summary for Policymakers certainly bears the
hallmarks of difficult negotiations between climate researchers
determined to stick to what their studies have shown and political
representatives more concerned with economies and living standards.<br>
Coral reefs face extinction in a 2-degree world<br>
Despite the inevitable compromises, there are some key messages that
come through loud and and clear.<br>
"The first is that limiting warming to 1.5C brings a lot of benefits
compared with limiting it to 2 degrees. It really reduces the
impacts of climate change in very important ways," said Prof Jim
Skea, who is a co-chair of the IPCC.<br>
"The second is the unprecedented nature of the changes that are
required if we are to limit warming to 1.5C - changes to energy
systems, changes to the way we manage land, changes to the way we
move around with transportation."<br>
<br>
<b>What's the one big takeaway?</b><b><br>
</b><b> "Scientists might want to write in capital letters, 'ACT NOW
IDIOTS', </b>but they need to say that with facts and numbers,"
said Kaisa Kosonen, from Greenpeace, who was an observer at the
negotiations. "And they have."<br>
The researchers have used these facts and numbers to paint a picture
of the world with a dangerous fever, caused by humans. We used to
think if we could keep warming below 2 degrees this century then the
changes we would experience would be manageable.<br>
Not any more. This new study says that going past 1.5C is dicing
with the planet's liveability. And the 1.5C temperature "guard rail"
could be exceeded in just 12 years in 2030.<br>
We can stay below it but it will require urgent, large-scale changes
from governments and individuals, plus we will have to invest a
massive pile of cash every year, around 2.5% of global GDP, for two
decades.<br>
<br>
Even then, we will still need machines, trees and plants to capture
carbon from the air that we can then store deep underground.
Forever!<br>
Five steps to 1.5<br>
Global emissions of CO2 need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by
2030.<br>
Renewables are estimated to provide up to 85% of global electricity
by 2050.<br>
Coal is expected to reduce to close to zero.<br>
Up to 7 million sq km of land will be needed for energy crops (a bit
less than the size of Australia).<br>
Global net zero emissions by 2050.<br>
<b>How much will all this cost?</b><b><br>
</b><b> It won't come cheap.</b> The report says that to limit
warming to 1.5C, it will involve "annual average investment needs in
the energy system of around $2.4 trillion" between 2016 and 2035.<br>
<br>
Experts believe that this number needs to be put in context.<br>
"There are costs and benefits you have to weigh up," said Dr Stephen
Cornelius, a former UK IPCC negotiator now with WWF, who says that
cutting emissions hard in the short term will cost money, but is
cheaper than paying for carbon dioxide removal later this century.<br>
"The report also talks about the benefits as there is higher
economic growth at 1.5 degrees than there is at 2C, and you don't
have the higher risk of catastrophic impacts at 1.5 that you do at
2."<br>
<br>
<b>What happens if we don't act?</b><b><br>
</b><b> The researchers say that if we fail to keep temperatures
below 1.5C, we are in for some significant and dangerous changes
to our world.</b><br>
<br>
You can kiss coral reefs good-bye, as the report says they would be
essentially 100% wiped out at 2 degrees of warming.<br>
Global sea-level will rise around 10 centimetres more if we let
warming go to 2C, That may not sound like much but keeping to 1.5C
means that 10 million fewer people would be exposed to the risks of
flooding.<br>
There are also significant impacts on ocean temperatures and
acidity, and the ability to grow crops like rice, maize and wheat.<br>
"We are already in the danger zone at one degree of warming," said
Kaisa Kosonen from Greenpeace.<br>
"Both poles are melting at an accelerated rate; ancient trees that
have been there for hundreds of years are suddenly dying; and the
summer we've just experienced - basically, the whole world was on
fire."<br>
<br>
<b>Is this plan at all feasible?</b><b><br>
</b><b> That all depends on what you mean.</b> The IPCC scientists
are not allowed to prescribe what should be done; they can only
outline what the options are. But those involved with this study
believe it shows realistic paths to staying under 1.5C.<br>
<br>
"It is feasible if we all put our best foot forward, and that's a
key message of this report. No-one can opt out anymore," said Dr
Debra Roberts, who's a co-chair of the IPCC.<br>
<br>
"We all have to fundamentally change the way we live our lives; we
can't remain remote from the problem anymore.<br>
<br>
"The report is very clear, this can be done, but it will require
massive changes, socially and politically and accompanied by
technological development."...<br>
- - - -<br>
<b>How long have we got?</b><br>
<b>Not long at all.</b> But that issue is now in the hands of
political leaders. The report says that hard decisions can no longer
be kicked down the road. If the nations of the world don't act soon,
they will have to rely even more on unproven technologies to take
carbon out of the air - an expensive and uncertain road.<br>
"They really need to start work immediately. The report is clear
that if governments just fulfil the pledges they made in the Paris
agreement for 2030, it is not good enough. It will make it very
difficult to consider global warming of 1.5C," said Prof Jim Skea.<br>
"If they read the report and decide to increase their ambitions and
act more immediately then 1.5C stays within reach - that's the
nature of the choice they face."<br>
Campaigners and environmentalists, who have welcomed the report, say
there is simply no time left for debate.<br>
"This is the moment where we need to decide" said Kaisa Kosonen.<br>
"We want to move to clean energy, sustainable lifestyles. We want to
protect our forests and species. This is the moment that we will
remember; this is the year when the turning point happened."<br>
<br>
<b>What can I do?</b><br>
<b>The report says that there must be rapid and significant changes
in four big global systems - energy, land use, cities and
industry.</b><br>
"This is not about remote science; it is about where we live and
work, and it gives us a cue on how we might be able to contribute to
that massive change," said Dr Debra Roberts.<br>
"You might say you don't have control over land use, but you do have
control over what you eat and that determines land use.<br>
"We can choose the way we move in cities and if we don't have access
to public transport - make sure you are electing politicians who
provide options around public transport."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309">https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE & SECURITY<br>
EXPLORING THE SECURITY RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/10/02/chronology-of-u-s-military-statements-and-actions-on-climate-change-and-security-2017-2018/#more-16324">Chronology
of U.S. Military Statements and Actions on Climate Change and
Security: 2017-2018</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/10/02/chronology-of-u-s-military-statements-and-actions-on-climate-change-and-security-2017-2018/#more-16324">https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/10/02/chronology-of-u-s-military-statements-and-actions-on-climate-change-and-security-2017-2018/#more-16324</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Who's on first.]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/08/the-trump-administration-has-entered-stage-5-climate-denial">The
Trump administration has entered Stage 5 climate denial</a></b><br>
If we're already doomed to disastrous climate change, then there's
no reason to cut carbon pollution, argues the Trump administration<br>
Dana Nuccitelli<br>
Mon 8 Oct 2018 <br>
Several years ago, I wrote about the five stages of climate denial:<br>
Stage 1: Deny the Problem Exists<br>
Stage 2: Deny We're the Cause<br>
Stage 3: Deny It's a Problem<br>
Stage 4: Deny We can Solve It<br>
Stage 5: It's too Late<br>
- - - <br>
<b>The climate tragedy of the commons</b><br>
The tragedy of the commons is a situation in which individual actors
using a shared-resource system act in their own seeming
self-interest and deplete the resource as a result. For example,
consider a small fishery with a dozen fisherman each catching as
many fish as he can. Soon the resource becomes overfished and every
fisherman suffers the consequences. Only if they all agree to limit
their catches to sustainable levels can the fishery remain a
long-term stable resource for all of the fishermen.<br>
<br>
We're in the same situation with climate change. Every country can
act in its own short-term self-interest and continue burning lots of
seemingly cheap fossil fuels; the long-term result in that scenario
would be a catastrophic destabilization of the global climate on
which we all rely. Or every country can agree to take steps like
increasing vehicle fuel efficiency standards that cumulatively will
slow global warming and avoid the worst climate change impacts.<br>
<br>
Of course, being a short-sighted nationalist, Donald Trump is the
only world leader to reject the Paris climate agreement. His
administration is similarly making short-sighted arguments that
coincidentally serve the best interests of the fossil fuel industry,
while in this case producing the equivalent carbon emissions of
adding 9 million more cars on the road.<br>
<br>
At least the Trump administration doesn't deny basic climate science
in this report, but worse yet, they've taken the nihilistic
viewpoint that we're screwed and nothing we do matters. Like the
other stages, this is simply another form of climate denial meant to
protect fossil fuel industry profits at everyone else's peril.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/08/the-trump-administration-has-entered-stage-5-climate-denial">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/08/the-trump-administration-has-entered-stage-5-climate-denial</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Expensive Book ]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.elsevier.com/books/psychology-and-climate-change/clayton/978-0-12-813130-5">Psychology
and Climate Change</a></b><br>
Human Perceptions, Impacts, and Responses<br>
Editors: Susan Clayton, Christie Manning<br>
eBook ISBN: 9780128131312<br>
Paperback ISBN: 9780128131305<br>
Imprint: Academic Press<br>
Published Date: 7th June 2018<br>
Description<br>
Psychology and Climate Change: Human Perceptions, Impacts, and
Responses organizes and summarizes recent psychological research
that relates to the issue of climate change. The book covers topics
such as how people perceive and respond to climate change, how
people understand and communicate about the issue, how it impacts
individuals and communities, particularly vulnerable communities,
and how individuals and communities can best prepare for and
mitigate negative climate change impacts. It addresses the topic at
multiple scales, from individuals to close social networks and
communities. Further, it considers the role of social diversity in
shaping vulnerability and reactions to climate change.<br>
<br>
Psychology and Climate Change describes the implications of
psychological processes such as perceptions and motivations (e.g.,
risk perception, motivated cognition, denial), emotional responses,
group identities, mental health and well-being, sense of place, and
behavior (mitigation and adaptation). The book strives to engage
diverse stakeholders, from multiple disciplines in addition to
psychology, and at every level of decision making - individual,
community, national, and international, to understand the ways in
which human capabilities and tendencies can and should shape policy
and action to address the urgent and very real issue of climate
change.<br>
Key Features<br>
<blockquote>Examines the role of knowledge, norms, experience, and
social context in climate change awareness and action<br>
Considers the role of identity threat, identity-based motivation,
and belonging<br>
Presents a conceptual framework for classifying individual and
household behavior<br>
Develops a model to explain environmentally sustainable behavior<br>
Draws on what we know about participation in collective action<br>
Describes ways to improve the effectiveness of climate change
communication efforts<br>
Discusses the difference between acute climate change events and
slowly-emerging changes on our mental health<br>
Addresses psychological stress and injury related to global
climate change from an intersectional justice perspective<br>
Promotes individual and community resilience<br>
</blockquote>
Readership<br>
Researchers and students who study environmental psychology, social
psychology, behavior change, and environmental studies. A secondary
market for those who make policy regarding climate change...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.elsevier.com/books/psychology-and-climate-change/clayton/978-0-12-813130-5">https://www.elsevier.com/books/psychology-and-climate-change/clayton/978-0-12-813130-5</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/d-r-tucker/david-koch-wgbh_b_4073430.html">This
Day in Climate History - October 9, 2013</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
October 9, 2013: Forecast the Facts holds a "Rally for a Koch-Free
WGBH" in Brighton, Massachusetts, urging the PBS affiliate to remove
billionaire climate-change denier David H. Koch from its board of
trustees.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/d-r-tucker/david-koch-wgbh_b_4073430.html">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/d-r-tucker/david-koch-wgbh_b_4073430.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
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