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<font size="+1"><i>October 12, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[hurricane now a cyclone]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-11-tropical-storm-michael-carolinas-northeast-forecast">Tropical
Storm Michael Spreads Flooding Rain, Wind Into Carolinas, East
After Historic Category 4 Florida Panhandle Landfall</a></b><br>
Michael is rapidly moving northeast and offshore.<br>
Heavy rain is triggering flash flooding in parts of the Carolinas
and mid-Atlantic.<br>
Additional power outages are possible through early Friday with
remnant winds.<br>
Michael was the first Category 4 hurricane to make landfall on the
Florida Panhandle.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-11-tropical-storm-michael-carolinas-northeast-forecast">https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-11-tropical-storm-michael-carolinas-northeast-forecast</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[follow the money]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://427mt.com/2018/10/11/climate-risk-real-estate-investment-trusts/">Report:
Climate Risk, Real Estate, and the Bottom Line</a></b><br>
Posted on October 11, 2018<br>
OCTOBER 11, 2018 - BOSTON, MA - Four Twenty Seven & GeoPhy
Release First Global Dataset on Real Estate Investment Trusts'
Exposure to Climate Change. <br>
Four Twenty Seven and GeoPhy announced that they have scored 350
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) for their exposure to physical
impacts of climate change globally. The data product is being
launched today at the Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting in Boston,
MA, accompanied by a white paper that lays out the implications of
climate risk for the real estate sector.<br>
<br>
Four Twenty Seven applied its scoring model of asset-level climate
risk exposure to GeoPhy's database of REITs' holdings to create the
first global, scientific assessment of REITs' exposure to climate
risks. The dataset includes detailed, contextualized projections of
climate impacts from floods due to extreme precipitation and sea
level rise, exposure to hurricane-force winds, water stress and heat
stress for over 73,500 properties owned by 350 listed REITs.<br>
<br>
"Real estate is on the frontline of exposure to climate change" said
Emilie Mazzacurati, founder and CEO of Four Twenty Seven. "Many
valuable locations and markets are often coastal or near bodies of
water, and therefore are going to experience increases in flood
occurrences due to increases in extreme rainfall and to sea level
rise." she noted. "These risks can now be assessed with great
precision -- the availability of this data provides investors with
an opportunity to perform comprehensive due diligence which reflects
all dimensions of emerging risks," she concluded.<br>
<br>
"The market has begun to price in the potential impacts of fat-tail
climate events" noted Dr. Nils Kok, Chief Economist of GeoPhy.
"Properties exposed to sea level rise in some parts of the United
States are selling at a 7% discount to those with less exposure, and
the value of commercial real estate is expected to equally reflect
these risks. Leveraging forward-looking data on risk exposure can
allow REIT investors to anticipate changes in market valuations and
react accordingly."<br>
<br>
Learn more: Webinar on climate risk in Real Estate Investment Trusts<br>
Four Twenty Seven and GeoPhy will host a webinar to present the data
and key findings on October 23, 17:00 CET / 11am EST / 8am PST. <br>
Key findings from the report:<br>
<blockquote>-- 35 percent of REITs properties globally are exposed
to climate hazards. Of these, 17 percent of properties are exposed
to inland flood risk, 6 percent to sea level rise and coastal
floods, and 12 percent exposed to hurricanes or typhoons<br>
-- U.S. markets most exposed to sea level rise include New York,
San Francisco, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Boston. The Top 3 REITs
most exposed to sea level rise in the U.S. are Vornado Realty
Trust, Equity Residential, and CapitaLand.<br>
-- Globally, REITs concentrated in Hong Kong and Singapore display
the highest exposure to rising seas. Sun Hung Kai Properties,
worth $56 billion, has over a quarter of its properties exposed to
coastal flooding.<br>
-- 37 Japanese REITs have their entire portfolio exposed to the
highest risk for typhoon globally, representing $264.5 billion at
risk in properties in Tokyo and other Japanese cities.<br>
</blockquote>
Read the report: <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ClimateRiskRealEstateBottomLine_427GeoPhy_Oct2018-1.pdf">Climate
Risk, Real Estate and the Bottom Line</a> and learn more about the
data.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://427mt.com/2018/10/11/climate-risk-real-estate-investment-trusts/">http://427mt.com/2018/10/11/climate-risk-real-estate-investment-trusts/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Explaining why the Paris 2 degree limit is sensible,video lecture
45 mins]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IuiejMc5uQ">Climate
change: What if paris fails?</a></b><br>
Published on Sep 26, 2018<br>
KIT Climate Lecture 2018 | <b>Prof. Thomas Stocker</b>, Division
Climate and Environment Physics, University of Bern, Switzerland<br>
0:00:00 Start<br>
0:00:38 Article 2<br>
0:03:53 IPCC Assessment Reports since 1990: WGI Contribution<br>
0:11:31 know the present<br>
0:11:43 CO2 Mauna Loa, Hawaii<br>
0:13:42 CO2 concentration of the past 800000 years<br>
0:14:58 Temprature Change: Annual Mean<br>
0:16:06 Summer tempratures in switzerland<br>
0:19:26 Acceleration of global mean sea level rise<br>
0:21:48 Jakobshaven Isbrae<br>
0:23:18 Estimate the future<br>
0:23:20 Global mean surface temprature change<br>
0:24:32 Change in average temprature<br>
0:25:12 Emergence of marine heat waves<br>
0:25:54 Land and marine heat waves<br>
0:29:13 Carbon Budget for 2c target: 790 bill t C<br>
0:31:53 What do we lose?<br>
0:31:59 Climate change is a resource problem<br>
0:33:53 Resource health: Dangerous heat<br>
0:37:03 Resource water: drought and water stress<br>
0:38:03 Resource Land: Loss of Home and Habitat<br>
0:39:35 Resource Biodiversity: Compound CC Impacts<br>
0:41:04 Synergy of ambitions<br>
0:41:14 Climate change is a threat to sustainable development<br>
0:42:05 Climate change must be limited to achieve these Sustainable
Development Goals<br>
0:43:51 Fundamental Links and synergies between Sustainability and
Climate Change<br>
0:44:35 Conclusions<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://webcast.kit.edu">http://webcast.kit.edu</a><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IuiejMc5uQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IuiejMc5uQ</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[threats]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/10/10/time-use-our-fear-fuel-three-takeaways-ipccs-new-report">Time
to Use Our Fear as Fuel: Three Takeaways from the IPCC's New
Report</a></b><br>
More and more people are coming to the conclusion that this
escalating crisis, ever-harder to deny, can galvanize change on the
scale that is really needed. Nothing less will do.<br>
by Avi Lewis<br>
The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report is out, and
it is a dramatic development . The threat advisory from the world's
scientific climate community just went from orange to flashing red.<br>
But here's the key takeaway: limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius
is still possible, and will require a rapid transformation of our
economy.The great news is that this need for fundamental change is
now recognized by the world's leading climate scientists, who advise
the United Nations. And as we've been arguing for years, the wider
opportunities and benefits of that unprecedented transition are
vast: a global green new deal, millions of new jobs, deep change
anchored in justice.<br>
<br>
The call to action in this report is why we started The Leap.
Transforming our economy and society on the scale this crisis
requires is the most powerful opportunity we've ever had to build a
more caring, liveable planet.<br>
<br>
So don't look away. While the understandable reaction is to avoid,
avoid, avoid (hey, we have this feeling too!) we find relief in
engaging with the facts. Here are 3 takeaways from The Leap on this
unprecedented UN report.<br>
<br>
<b>1. Don't doubt what your senses are telling you.</b><br>
Yes, the climate crisis is unfolding even faster and more furiously
than expected. At current emissions rates, we could hit 1.5C of
global warming as soon as 2030 -- and we're on track for far more.
If that happens, the worst impacts of climate change -- previously
predicted to take place closer to the end of the century -- will
likely begin within our lifetime. Food and water shortages across
the globe. The death of all coral reefs. Hundreds of millions of
people impacted by deadly heat or rising waters. And a predicted
economic cost counted in tens of trillions of dollars. Trillions.
Overall, the more than 6,000 scientific papers behind this report
are telling us that 1.5C is more dangerous than previously
predicted, and it's all happening sooner than we thought. We have
less than a decade to turn our global emissions trends around.<br>
<br>
<b>2. Beware of doom merchants.</b><br>
After this report, get ready to start hearing two new angles from
pundits and deniers. First, that we're doomed anyways, so … let's
not do anything at all. We got a first glimpse of this tactic in
August, from the Trump administration. In a draft environmental
impact statement, it argued that warming of 4C is indeed on its way
-- so the fact that the administration was axing fuel efficiency
standards for cars and light trucks didn't really matter [2].<br>
<br>
The second take we can expect to hear more of is the idea of the
"moonshot." That things are so dire that it's time to start radical
climate experiments, or "geo-engineering" to counteract global
warming. These sci-fi schemes include terrifying ideas like dimming
the sun by releasing sulfur into the upper atmosphere.<br>
<br>
The good news is: this report doesn't back such doomsday approaches.
It warns against the substantial risks of untested geoengineering
strategies. And it is up front about the fact that while the
situation is dire -- responses based on hopelessness are not what we
need.<br>
<br>
<b>3. We can still turn this around. And it's going to take a leap.</b><br>
With this report, the UN has suddenly reached the very realization
that gave rise to The Leap Manifesto in 2015: the only thing that
can save us now is the total transformation of our political and
economic system. Of course, there's a clear implication of this fact
that the UN is not yet ready to admit: system change requires taking
power away from the people most responsible for this crisis, from
bringing about a managed decline of the fossil fuel industry to
bringing the high-emitting billionaire class down to earth.<br>
<br>
Consider, for some perspective, this take from climate and energy
expert Kevin Anderson: "almost 50% of global carbon emissions arise
from the activities of around 10% of the global population…. Impose
a limit on the per-capita carbon footprint of the top 10% of global
emitters, equivalent to that of an average European citizen, and
global emissions could be reduced by one third in a matter of a year
or two."<br>
<br>
Of course, cracking down on the emissions of the high-carbon global
class would not be that simple -- but instead of wasting another
decade on market-friendly tweaks and silver bullet technologies, we
certainly can mobilize for real, democratic control over every part
of our economies.<br>
<br>
This is the most hopeful note: more and more people are coming to
the conclusion that this escalating crisis, ever-harder to deny, can
galvanize change on the scale that is really needed. Nothing less
will do. The idea of a "Green New Deal" is gaining momentum around
the world.<br>
<br>
This is white-knuckle terrifying stuff, but don't turn away: the
report makes clear that the worst effects of global warming can
still be prevented, and the urgency of transformative change should
excite and empower all of us who are fighting for justice anyway.<br>
<br>
This is a time to use our fear as fuel, and ratchet up our
determination. Let's take a good, hard, clear-eyed look at the
fucked-up future we are headed for, and decide -- collectively -- to
leap to a safer, better place. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/10/10/time-use-our-fear-fuel-three-takeaways-ipccs-new-report">https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/10/10/time-use-our-fear-fuel-three-takeaways-ipccs-new-report</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[It's the economy stupid]<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/11/climate-change-next-global-crash-world-economies-1929">Climate
change will make the next global crash the worst</a></b><br>
Larry Elliott<br>
The storm clouds are gathering, but the world's economies now have
far fewer shelters from disaster than they did in 1929<br>
<br>
Late last month Indonesia was hit by a devastating earthquake and
tsunami that left thousands of people dead and missing. This week
the International Monetary Fund arrived in the country to hold its
annual meeting on the island of Bali.<br>
<br>
On the day when <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/09/trumps-trade-war-with-china-and-europe-will-hit-global-growth-imf">the
IMF issued a warning</a> about trouble ahead for the global
economy, <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report">the
latest report</a> from the UN's intergovernmental panel on climate
change said the world had only a dozen years left to take the steps
necessary to prevent a global warming catastrophe. The message is
clear for those willing to hear it: get ready for a time when
economic failure combines with ecological breakdown to create the
perfect storm.<br>
<br>
Even without the added complication of climate change, the challenge
facing the finance ministers and central bank governors gathered in
Bali would be significant enough. The IMF has cut its forecast for
global growth, but the chances are that next year will be a lot
worse than is currently forecast. The risks, the IMF says, are
skewed to the downside. You bet they are...<br>
- - - -<br>
Here's a brief checklist. For the past 10 years, the world economy
has been surviving on a diet of low interest rates and money
creation by central banks, but that stimulus is now being gradually
withdrawn. In the United States, growth has been further pumped up
by Donald Trump's tax cuts for individuals and companies, but only
temporarily. The impact will start to fade next year as higher
interest rates start to bite. Trump is already berating the Federal
Reserve, America's central bank, for increasing borrowing costs.<br>
<br>
In Europe, a colossal row is brewing between Italy's populist
government and the fiscal conservatives at the European commission
because the budget proposed by Rome runs completely counter to the
EU's fiscal rules. Officials in Brussels are more worried about
Italy than they are about Brexit, and with good reason. Italy's
banks are awash with bad debts and could not survive the sort of
financial crisis that appears to be in prospect. It is a much bigger
country than Greece, and far too big for Europe to bail out if the
worst happens.<br>
<br>
The standoff between Rome and Brussels is happening as Europe's
growth rate has started to slow. One reason is that its
export-driven economies are already being hurt by the early
skirmishes in Trump's trade war. As the IMF noted this week,
protectionism is a key risk to global growth.<br>
<br>
China, the world's second biggest economy, has always been Trump's
main target, and it has been affected by new US tariffs, as its
domestic economy was already slowing. Elsewhere, in the past few
months the IMF has been called in to help Argentina, there has been
a run on the Turkish lira, and inflation in Venezuela threatens to
hit Weimar Germany-style levels.<br>
<br>
In better times, oil-rich Venezuela might have been well placed to
benefit from the rising price of crude oil, which is heading
steadily towards $100 a barrel. Every big recession in the global
economy has been prefigured by a jump in the cost of crude, which
makes it somewhat curious that share prices on Wall Street are so
high. Traditionally, stock markets anticipate trouble, but the mood
currently is to dismiss higher interest rates, rising oil prices,
Italy and trade wars as somehow unimportant. Ominously, next year is
the 90th anniversary of the Wall Street Crash. The Great Depression
that followed that market meltdown led to new economic thinking. It
spawned full employment policies, increased spending on welfare, and
a new set of multilateral organisations...<br>
<br>
Turn the clock forward to 2018 and the parallels are obvious.
International cooperation has broken down, economic failure has
damaged mainstream political parties, and belief in the invisible
hand of the free market has been shattered. But the threat posed by
global warming means the current crisis of capitalism is more acute
than that of the 1930s, because all that was really required then
was a boost to growth, provided by the New Deal, cheap money,
tougher controls on finance and rearmament. In today's context, a
plain vanilla go-for-growth strategy would be suicidal.<br>
<br>
Even so, there are countries that are prepared to self-immolate
their economies in pursuit of growth at all costs. America is one.
Australia appears to be another. At the other end of the spectrum
are those who say there will be a future for the planet only if the
idea of growth is ditched altogether. Politically, this has always
been a hard sell, and has become even more difficult now that
populations in the west have experienced an entire decade of
flatlining living standards.<br>
<br>
In the developing world, the problem has been too little growth
rather than too much. Tackling global population growth is a
no-brainer from a climate-change perspective, and most of the
projected increase comes from low-income countries, most notably in
Africa. The reason is simple: poor families have more children.
Birthrates fall as countries become richer.<br>
<br>
Between the two extremes are those who think the circle can be
squared by carbon-free growth, made possible by the dramatic fall in
the cost of renewable energy. Technology will ride to the rescue,
they insist.<br>
<br>
This sounds like a cost-free (or at least relatively cheap) option,
and that's why almost all politicians pay lip service to green
growth. But then they act in ways that make achieving global warming
targets harder - by building new roads and expanding airports. And
always for the same reason: because doing so will be good for
growth. This is called a balanced approach, but it is nothing of the
sort. If the IPCC is even close to being right about its timeline,
speeding up the transition from fossil fuels to renewables is vital.<br>
<br>
Can that be done? One of the winners of this year's Nobel prize for
economics - William Nordhaus - says it can, if policymakers get
serious about a carbon tax set high enough to price oil, coal and
gas out of the market.<br>
<br>
Here, though, the breakdown in international cooperation and trust
becomes really damaging. Ideally, existing global institutions - the
IMF, the World Bank, the UN and the World Trade Organization - would
be supplemented by a new World Environmental Organisation with the
power to levy a carbon tax globally. Even in the absence of a new
body, they would be working together to face down the inevitable
opposition to change from the fossil fuel lobby.<br>
<br>
Instead, the response to climate change looks similar to the
response to the financial crisis: fail to recognise there is a
problem until it is too late; panic; then muddle through. That's a
sobering prospect.<br>
<font size="-1">more at- <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/11/climate-change-next-global-crash-world-economies-1929">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/11/climate-change-next-global-crash-world-economies-1929</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[less chill]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFFvJYpg4xk">Arctic Sea
Ice Is the Thinnest and Youngest It's Been in 60 Years</a></b><br>
NASA Goddard<br>
Published on Oct 11, 2018<br>
Working from a combination of satellite records and declassified
submarine sonar data, NASA scientists have constructed a 60-year
record of Arctic sea ice thickness. Right now, Arctic sea ice is the
youngest and thinnest its been since we started keeping records.
More than 70 percent of Arctic sea ice is now seasonal, which means
it grows in the winter and melts in the summer, but doesn't last
from year to year. This seasonal ice melts faster and breaks up
easier, making it much more susceptible to wind and atmospheric
conditions.<br>
Music: Galore by Lee Groves [PRS], Peter George Marett [PRS]<br>
This video is public domain and along with other supporting
visualizations can be downloaded from the Scientific Visualization
Studio at: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13089">http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13089</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
[Classic music video]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRLJscAlk1M">Dear Future
Generations: Sorry</a></b><br>
Prince Ea<br>
Published on Apr 20, 2015<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRLJscAlk1M">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRLJscAlk1M</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/opinion/las-quest-to-cut-fossil-fuels.html?ref=opinion">This
Day in Climate History - October 12, 2016 </a>- from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
October 12, 2016: The New York Times editorial page observes:<br>
"Los Angeles has suffered the worst ozone pollution of any American
city for three years running.<br>
<br>
"Coastal areas of the city could be swallowed by the Pacific by the
end of the century as a warming climate causes sea levels to rise. A
natural gas leak in northwestern Los Angeles, finally plugged in
February, was the most disastrous in American history.<br>
<br>
"Small wonder that Los Angeles is joining a growing movement to
confront environmental challenges at the local level. As the former
New York mayor Michael Bloomberg realized early in his tenure,
cities, with their concentrated populations, can play an important
role in addressing local air pollution as well as global climate
change. (Mr. Bloomberg helped to lead a delegation of mayors from
various countries at last December’s global climate summit meetings
in Paris, and their presence had much to do with pushing a final
agreement over the finish line.)<br>
<br>
"Moreover, it has proved easier to act locally than to push
legislation through Congress, many of whose members publicly
question the existence of human-caused climate change, and whose
recalcitrance has forced President Obama to use his executive powers
to get anything done on climate change or, for that matter, any
environmental issue.<br>
<br>
"Last month, the Los Angeles City Council took an important step
toward getting 100 percent of the city’s energy from renewable
sources. It is only at the beginning of the process. There is no
timeline, but the Department of Water and Power has been ordered to
study how the city could reach that goal."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/opinion/las-quest-to-cut-fossil-fuels.html?ref=opinion">http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/opinion/las-quest-to-cut-fossil-fuels.html?ref=opinion</a><br>
<br>
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