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<font size="+1"><i>October 16, 2018</i></font><br>
<br>
[new normal?]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/15/657468903/to-prevent-wildfires-pg-e-preemptively-cuts-power-to-thousands-in-california?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social">To
Prevent Wildfires, PG&E Pre-Emptively Cuts Power To
Thousands In California</a></b><br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/15/657468903/to-prevent-wildfires-pg-e-preemptively-cuts-power-to-thousands-in-california?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social">https://www.npr.org/2018/10/15/657468903/to-prevent-wildfires-pg-e-preemptively-cuts-power-to-thousands-in-california?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[two into one=dumb]<br>
<b><a href="https://www.apnews.com/573a19c3d43643e5b2d961b46cd99c67">APNewsBreak:
US eyes military bases for coal, gas exports</a></b><br>
By MATTHEW BROWN<br>
BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) -- The Trump administration is considering
using West Coast military bases or other federal properties as
transit points for shipments of U.S. coal and natural gas to Asia as
officials seek to bolster the domestic energy industry and
circumvent environmental opposition to fossil fuel exports,
according to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and two Republican
lawmakers.<br>
The proposal would advance the administration's agenda of
establishing American "energy dominance" on the world stage and
underscores a willingness to intervene in markets to make that
happen. It's tantamount to an end-run around West Coast officials
who have rejected private-sector efforts to build new coal ports in
their states...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.apnews.com/573a19c3d43643e5b2d961b46cd99c67">https://www.apnews.com/573a19c3d43643e5b2d961b46cd99c67</a></font><br>
- - - - -<br>
[Washington Governor Jay Inslee calls Trump an idiot (sort of)]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-statement-regarding-trump-proposal-export-coal-out-west-coast-military-bases">Inslee
statement regarding Trump proposal to export coal out of West
Coast military bases</a></b><br>
October 15, 2018<br>
<b>Story </b><br>
<blockquote>"This reckless, harebrained proposal undermines national
security instead of increasing it, and it undermines states'
rights to enforce necessary health, safety and environmental
protections in their communities. The men and women who serve at
our military bases are there to keep our country safe, not to
service an export facility for private fossil fuel companies.<br>
<br>
"If the president is interested in national security, he should
take a look at the Pentagon reports that say climate change is a
national security threat itself. We're seeing that threat now in
the form of increasingly severe hurricanes, wildfires, floods and
droughts. This president's 'national security' response? Increase
coal exports using Washington state's military bases. This is
outrageous.<br>
<br>
"What's more, the administration's attempt to ignore and subvert
state environmental laws will fail -- miserably. Washington
maintains the right and obligation to enforce the laws protecting
Washingtonians' clean air and clean water.<br>
<br>
"Our state has been left in the dark about the Administration's
latest scheme. We've seen the news reports but have yet to hear
from them in person. This effort is just the latest attempt at an
end run around Washington's authority to safeguard the health and
safety of our people."<br>
</blockquote>
<b>Media Contact </b><br>
Tara Lee<br>
Governor Inslee's Communications Office<br>
360.902.4136<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-statement-regarding-trump-proposal-export-coal-out-west-coast-military-bases">https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-statement-regarding-trump-proposal-export-coal-out-west-coast-military-bases</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[half empty, full and overflowing]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/10/new-ipcc-climate-report-actually.html">New
IPCC climate report actually understates threat, researchers say</a></b><br>
By Scott Waldman, first published at E&E News<br>
15 October 2018<br>
The United Nations climate report released this week had some
stunning revelations, claiming that the 2020s could be one of
humanity's last chances to avert devastating impacts. But some say
its authors were being too cautious.<br>
<br>
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report states
in plain language that averting a climate crisis will require a
wholesale reinvention of the global economy. By 2040, the report
predicts, there could be global food shortages, the inundation of
coastal cities and a refugee crisis unlike the world has ever seen.<br>
<br>
A number of scientists contend that the report wasn't strong enough
and that it downplayed the full extent of the real threat. They say
it doesn't account for all of the warming that has already occurred
and that it downplays the economic costs of severe storms and
displacement of people through drought and deadly heat waves.<br>
<br>
The world has a smaller carbon budget--the amount of fossil fuels
that can be consumed before a critical tipping point is
reached--than the report states, said Michael Mann, a professor of
atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center
at Pennsylvania State University in Philadelphia. He published two
papers with other researchers in recent years to show that the
"preindustrial" baseline used for the report should not be based on
late 19th-century data. The Industrial Revolution was already
underway by then, he said, and humans had warmed the world by
several tenths of a degree.<br>
<br>
"We are closer to the 1.5C and 2.0C thresholds than they indicate
and our available carbon budget for avoiding those critical
thresholds is considerably smaller than they imply," Mann wrote in
an email to E&E News. "In other words, they paint an overly rosy
scenario by ignoring some relevant literature."<br>
<br>
In other places, the report fails to highlight some major risks from
climate change, said Bob Ward, policy and communications director of
the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the
Environment at the London School of Economics in the United Kingdom.
In the summary for policymakers, the section that receives the most
attention, it does not mention population displacements or conflict,
he said. It also does not describe any risks except for
destabilization of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, he
said.<br>
<br>
"The danger of omitting these big risks is that policymakers
underestimate the scale and urgency of the situation," Ward wrote in
an email. "The authors may have left them out because they are
uncertain. However, policymakers may misinterpret their omission as
a sign that the authors examined the risks and decided either that
the impacts would be unimportant or that the probabilities are zero.
It is the difference between an academic literature review and a
professional risk assessment."<br>
<br>
The IPCC report downplays the real costs of climate change, and its
contribution to natural disasters, because it can be difficult to
tease out the exact role of human-caused climate from a hurricane or
other disaster, said Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist in the
Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research in Boulder, Colorado.<br>
<br>
He said the IPCC could make stronger statements about attribution of
human-caused climate change to extreme weather. The report could
also be stronger in connecting the costs of more extreme storms with
human-caused climate change, he said.<br>
<br>
Another challenge is that the report relies on too many studies or
reports that explore a single country, such as Iran or Romania,
without looking at larger regional trends, Trenberth said.<br>
"The IPCC tends to be quite conservative both in terms of the way in
which they do things but because you're dealing with the lowest
common multiple of a large number of people from many different
countries who have a more limited background in terms of dealing
with the material they're actually assessing," he said.<br>
<br>
The report also ignores "wild cards" in the climate system, or
self-reinforcing feedbacks, said Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a
professor of climate sciences at the University of California, San
Diego. That includes thinning Arctic sea ice, which allows the ocean
to absorb more heat, causing even more ice loss and diminished
reflectivity in the region, he said. Such feedback loops have a real
possibility of pushing the planet into a period of chaos that humans
cannot control, he said.<br>
Ramanathan said the report also takes solid research, such as his
finding that 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming could be reached by 2030
to 2035, and downplays it in favour of being overly cautious.<br>
<br>
"I am a little bit concerned policymakers who are skeptical about
all this are going to say, 'They're talking about half a degree
difference; I'm not going to worry about that,'" he said.<br>
<br>
Other scientists criticized the report. Some said it's understated,
while others described it as overly alarming. One area that deserves
more attention is the higher-risk scenarios, which have more
uncertainty but also hold more devastating implications, said Andrea
Dutton, a sea-level-rise expert at the University of Florida in
Gainesville.<br>
<br>
"The take-away message is this: The scientists who have been
studying climate change and writing these reports are some of the
very same people who have the highest concern about the potential
impacts," she said. "If those most knowledgeable about the situation
are also the most concerned, then it is time for the general public
not just to start paying more attention but convert this concern and
despair to action."<br>
<br>
The research is presented in an appropriate and evenhanded way,
evaluating risks and highlighting uncertainties where appropriate,
said Gavin Schmidt, climate scientist and director of the NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It's also something that will
be verifiable in the lifetimes of many of the scientists who
contributed to it, he said. That shows the degree of confidence they
have in their predictions, he said.<br>
<br>
"This is climate scientists really putting their predictions where
their mouth is. This isn't something that is going to happen in
centuries; this is what we're predicting is going to happen within
decades," Schmidt said. "I think that's a statement about our
confidence in what the trajectory is for many of these aspects and a
warning to the people who are going to have to deal with it."<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/10/new-ipcc-climate-report-actually.html">http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/10/new-ipcc-climate-report-actually.html</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[the New Yorker magazine]<br>
October 22, 2018 Issue<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/22/what-is-donald-trumps-response-to-the-uns-dire-climate-report">What
Is Donald Trump's Response to the U.N.'s Dire Climate Report?</a></b><br>
The U.N.'s scientific advisory board sounds a piercing alarm on
climate change, but the President doesn't seem to hear it.<br>
By <b>Elizabeth Kolbert</b><br>
- - - -<br>
The Paris agreement calls for "holding" warming below two degrees,
while "pursuing efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees.<br>
<br>
Last week, the United Nations' scientific advisory board delivered
its assessment of those numbers. The findings of the group, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were almost
universally--and justifiably--described as "dire." Even 1.5 degrees'
worth of warming, the I.P.C.C. warned, is likely to be disastrous,
with consequences that include, but are not limited to, the loss of
most of the world's coral reefs, the displacement of millions of
people by sea-level rise, and a decline in global crop yields.
Meanwhile, at the current rate of emissions, the world will have run
through the so-called carbon budget for 1.5 degrees within the next
decade or so. "It's like a deafening, piercing smoke alarm going off
in the kitchen," Erik Solheim, the executive director of the U.N.
Environment Program, told the Washington Post.<br>
<br>
But, if a smoke alarm rings in the kitchen and everyone's watching
"Fox & Friends" in the den, does it make a sound? Asked about
the report last week, Donald Trump said, "I want to look at who drew
it--you know, which group drew it." ...<br>
- - -- <br>
To have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, the
I.P.C.C. said, global CO2 emissions, now running about forty billion
tons a year, would need to be halved by 2030 and reduced more or
less to zero by 2050. And this would still not be enough. All the
scenarios that the I.P.C.C. could come up with to limit warming to
1.5 degrees rely on some kind of "carbon-dioxide removal":
essentially, technologies to suck CO2 out of the air. Such
technologies exist, but so far only in the sense that flying cars
exist--as expensive-to-produce prototypes. A leaked draft of the
report noted that there was a "very high risk" of exceeding 1.5
degrees; although that phrase was removed from the final report, the
message is clear.<br>
<br>
Thus, it is tempting, following the Trump Administration's lead, to
simply give up. But, as Edgar puts it in "King Lear," the "worst is
not, so long as we can say, 'This is the worst.' " Perhaps the most
important takeaway from the report is that every extra half a degree
is world-altering. According to the I.P.C.C., between 1.5 degrees
and two degrees of warming, the rate of crop loss doubles. So does
the decline in marine fisheries, while exposure to extreme heat
waves almost triples. As always, it's the poor who are apt to suffer
most. Friederike Otto, the acting director of Oxford's Environmental
Change Institute, recently told the Web site Carbon Brief that "half
a degree of additional warming makes a huge difference. For people
who are already marginalised, this can be an existential
difference."<br>
<br>
Meanwhile, two and a half degrees, three degrees, or even, per the
Trump Administration, four degrees of warming are all realistic
possibilities. Indeed, based on recent trends, the last figure seems
the most likely. Globally, emissions rose last year, and they're
expected to rise still further this year. This disaster is going to
be as bad--as very, very bad--as we make it. <br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/22/what-is-donald-trumps-response-to-the-uns-dire-climate-report">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/22/what-is-donald-trumps-response-to-the-uns-dire-climate-report</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[paradigm shift]<br>
Capital Weather Gang<br>
<b><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/15/hurricane-michaels-second-wind-rare-case-tropical-storm-that-strengthened-over-land/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f5f507d61c0f">Michael's
second wind: A rare case of a tropical storm that strengthened
over land<br>
</a></b>By Jeff Halverson<br>
October 15 at 2:17 PM<br>
When Tropical Storm Michael tracked inland from Florida through
Georgia and South Carolina, it weakened, as tropical systems passing
over land tend to do. But then, it suddenly intensified after
bolting through central North Carolina, creating violent winds in
Virginia that left half a million people in the dark.<br>
<br>
Michael's rejuvenation over land was a meteorological rarity, but
its merger with a sharp fall cold front may have resulted in its
anomalous intensification and surprising burst of wind.<br>
<br>
Meteorologists had expected the core winds to weaken through the
Carolinas and Virginia. Only after the storm emerged back over the
warm Atlantic were the winds expected to rebound -- as a storm that
had fully transitioned from a tropical system into a mid-latitude
ocean storm.<br>
- - - - -<br>
But as Michael progressed through North Carolina, its pressure
slowly began to fall -- signaling an intensifying storm. Its big
leap of strength came once it exited North Carolina; in a three-hour
period, the pressure fell from 989 to 986 millibars over
southeastern Virginia. And winds cranked up mightily in response...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/15/hurricane-michaels-second-wind-rare-case-tropical-storm-that-strengthened-over-land/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f5f507d61c0f">https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/15/hurricane-michaels-second-wind-rare-case-tropical-storm-that-strengthened-over-land/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f5f507d61c0f</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[TV weather]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/climate-without-borders-putting-changing-climate-into-a-new-perspective/">Climate
without Borders: putting changing climate into a new perspective</a></b><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/climate-without-borders-putting-changing-climate-into-a-new-perspective/"><br>
</a>Filed under: Communicating Climate -- rasmus @ 14 October 2018<br>
Guest post by Mike Favetta<br>
The goal of "Climate without Borders" (CwB) is to unite TV weather
presenters from all over the world and bring scientific knowledge to
a broader public. This, in turn, creates climate awareness and
creates support for the urgent climate action needed. Although the
name suggests a kind of connection with Doctors without Borders,
members of Climate without Borders won't be traveling to island
nations about to be submerged, like Tuvalu, or areas sub and
physically volunteering in the refugee efforts. Rather, Climate
without Borders is a network of TV weathercasters around the world
who aim to communicate the science, and impact of climate change,
and give warnings to their local viewing populations. This makes the
organization unique in the world. TV weathercasters are trusted
sources of information, and they know the nuances of their
audience's cultures to make messages more understandable. Exploiting
this relationship is an effective way of sharing climate information
that people will listen to and comprehend...<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/climate-without-borders-putting-changing-climate-into-a-new-perspective/">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/climate-without-borders-putting-changing-climate-into-a-new-perspective/</a></font><br>
- - - -<br>
[<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://climatewithoutborders.org/">http://climatewithoutborders.org/</a>]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://climatewithoutborders.org/">SAVING LIVES FROM
CHANGING WEATHER</a></b><br>
Climate without Borders is a new Foundation that unites weather
presenters from all over the world.<br>
Weather presenters are working in media, and are used to bringing
scientific knowledge to a broader public. They are trusted
communicators, on the barricades of the changing weather. Their
warnings can save human lives. But more is needed...<br>
Climate without Borders wants to educate, motivate and activate
weather presenters so that they can unfold their capacity for saving
people's lives from the changing weather, induced by climate
disruption (that is the human impact on the changing long-term
weather patterns).<br>
In the near future more people will die and flee because of extreme
weather events. The time to act is now, with our time window closing
fast.<br>
Here we keep you informed about our stories and projects. A warm
welcome!<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://climatewithoutborders.org/">http://climatewithoutborders.org/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[video]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=869tgS6bzZs">Gas is not a
"bridge fuel" – it's a climate disaster.</a></b><br>
Oil Change International<br>
Published on Oct 13, 2018<br>
Gas isn't "clean" or a "bridge fuel" – it's a climate disaster! We
need to move away from ALL fossil fuels immediate – and that
includes natural gas, more accurately called "fossil gas." <br>
It's time the myth of fossil gas as a climate solution be burned up
for good. We need real climate solutions, not more fossil-fueled
lies.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=869tgS6bzZs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=869tgS6bzZs</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[see the graphics]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/10/15/flirting-with-disaster-greenhouse-gas-report/">Flirting
with Disaster: Greenhouse Gas Report</a></b><br>
Posted on October 15, 2018<br>
We need to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and we need to
do it quickly. The main ones increased by humans are carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4, the main component of natural gas), and nitrous
oxide (N2O).<br>
How are we doing?<br>
Let's start with CO2. Here's the atmospheric concentration (in ppm,
or "part-per-million") according the the atmospheric observatory at
Mauna Loa - <br>
- - - - -<br>
Bottom line: we haven't stopped CO2 growth, we haven't even slowed
it.<br>
- - - -<br>
Again, no sign that we've stopped increasing or even slowed down.<br>
There is, as yet, no sign of any slowdown in the growth of
greenhouse gases. That emphasizes how hard this is going to be. But
it's worth it to stave off destruction, destitution, injury and
death. That's what's at stake.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/10/15/flirting-with-disaster-greenhouse-gas-report/">https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/10/15/flirting-with-disaster-greenhouse-gas-report/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Yikes! amateur conjecture]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://greentalk.org.uk/this-civilisation-is-finished/">This
Civilisation is Finished…</a></b><br>
June 8, 2017<br>
We need to start seeding the next civilisation, because this one is
finished<br>
Summary: This civilisation (meaning: the vast majority now of human
life on Earth) will be transformed:<br>
It will either collapse utterly.<br>
Or it (we) will manage to seed a future successor-civilisation, as
this one collapses.<br>
Or this civilisation will somehow manage to transform itself
radically and rapidly, in an unprecedented manner, in time to avert
collapse...<br>
<font size="-1">more at - <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://greentalk.org.uk/this-civilisation-is-finished/">http://greentalk.org.uk/this-civilisation-is-finished/</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
[Humor - SNL climate change video Weekend Update]<br>
<b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07oe1m67eik&feature=youtu.be">Weekend
Update: U.N.'s Climate Change Report - SNL</a></b><br>
Saturday Night Live<br>
Published on Oct 13, 2018<br>
Weekend Update anchors Colin Jost and Michael Che tackle the week's
biggest news, including the United Nations' report on climate
change.<br>
<font size="-1"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07oe1m67eik&feature=youtu.be">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07oe1m67eik&feature=youtu.be</a></font><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1988-10-16/news/8802080029_1_greenhouse-effect-global-warming-environmentalism">This
Day in Climate History - October 16, 1988</a> - from D.R.
Tucker</b></font><br>
October 16, 1988: Discussing the role of global warming in the 1988
presidential election, Chicago Tribune columnist Steve Chapman
observes:<br>
<blockquote>"Last summer, one of the hottest and driest on record,
the nation was roused by alarms about the 'greenhouse effect'--the
gradual warming of the globe that threatens to turn coastal cities
into underwater ruins and corn fields into salt flats. <br>
<br>
"The problem is that for the last century or so industrial
societies have been releasing substances into the air that capture
heat and erode the Earth`s shield against the sun. The villains?
Carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, methane from
natural and man-made sources and aerosol propellants.<br>
<br>
"But as soon as the heat dissipated, so did interest in the issue.
In the campaign, the greenhouse effect has gone almost
unmentioned...<br>
<br>
"Both candidates pretend the solutions will be painless and free.
Both pass over the obvious remedies in favor of the politically
appealing ones.<br>
<br>
"The nations of the world have taken one step by agreeing on a
treaty to reduce the use of aerosol propellants. But any serious
attempt to slow the warming of the Earth requires at least three
additional measures: discouraging the use of fossil fuels like
coal, oil and gas; big improvements in energy efficiency; and
greater reliance on nuclear power."<br>
- - - -<br>
So much for all those unread position papers. What is clear is
that neither candidate grasps the importance of the greenhouse
effect or has any idea what to do about it. Like Mark Twain, they
believe you should never put off until tomorrow what you can do
the day after tomorrow.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1988-10-16/news/8802080029_1_greenhouse-effect-global-warming-environmentalism">http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1988-10-16/news/8802080029_1_greenhouse-effect-global-warming-environmentalism</a><br>
<br>
<br>
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