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<font size="+1"><i>January 9, 2019</i></font><br>
<br>
[no time to waste]<br>
<b>Court Sets Quick Deadline for Kids Climate Case Appeal</b><br>
Julia Olson and Phil Gregory, lawyers in the kids climate case, won
an expedited schedule from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals
Litigation - January 8, 2019<br>
By Karen Savage<br>
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has given the Trump
administration until Feb. 1 to file its opening brief in its attempt
to short-circuit the the landmark constitutional climate lawsuit,
Juliana v. United States, launching an expedited schedule to
consider the government's extraordinary appeal. The Ninth Circuit
judges denied a request by the administration to delay proceedings
due to the government shutdown.<br>
<br>
The ruling, handed down by a three-judge panel on Monday, sets in
motion a schedule on the interlocutory appeal, which the court
agreed to hear late last month. The schedule requires the young
plaintiffs to respond by February 22, with a hearing to be scheduled
at the Ninth Circuit's earliest available date.<br>
<br>
The judges also indicated that future requests for extensions of
time by the government would likely be denied.<br>
<br>
"This schedule is a ray of light for the plaintiffs," said Julia
Olson, co-counsel for the young plaintiffs. "Time is the enemy as
carbon dioxide builds in our atmosphere every day threatening the
personal security and lives of these young people. We will continue
to press forward on all fronts as quickly as possible. We're glad
the Ninth Circuit recognizes the urgency this case presents"...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/01/08/kids-climate-case-appeal-ninth-circuit/">https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/01/08/kids-climate-case-appeal-ninth-circuit/</a>
<br>
<br>
- - -<br>
[astounding changes ahead]<br>
<b>"THE TRIAL OF THE CENTURY": A PREVIEW OF HOW CLIMATE SCIENCE
COULD PLAY OUT IN THE COURTROOM, COURTESY OF JULIANA V. UNITED
STATES</b><br>
Posted on January 7th, 2019 by Jessica Wentz<br>
- - <br>
<b>The Pleadings: Two Key Issues of Fact</b><br>
Plaintiffs' case, and their ability to bring their case to court,
hinge on two factual issues: (1) the extent to which the U.S.
government can be deemed responsible for greenhouse gas emissions
that are causing anthropogenic climate change, and (2) the extent to
which anthropogenic climate change is responsible for the specific
injuries or harms suffered by the individual plaintiffs. In a major
research project we are conducting with our colleague Radley Horton,
a climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, we
define these concepts as "source attribution" (the attribution of
anthropogenic climate change to specific sources) and "impact
attribution" (the attribution of particular impacts to anthropogenic
climate change)...<br>
- - <br>
<b>What Next?</b><br>
Ultimately, the district court found "that plaintiffs have provided
sufficient evidence showing that causation for their claims is more
than attenuated;" that "the ultimate issue of causation will require
perhaps the most extensive evidence to determine at trial;" and that
"[a] final ruling on this issue will benefit from a fully developed
factual record where the Court can consider and weigh evidence from
both parties." But, even without the "trial of the century" moving
forward we can see the contours of the "battle of experts" such a
trial would entail. Plaintiffs' primary goal with its expert
testimony is to establish that the defendants are responsible for a
meaningful contribution to climate change - an amount sufficient to
prove causal relationships that satisfy the standing requirements
and the even more demanding standards for showing a violation of
public trust obligations and/or constitutional rights - and that
climate change is the legal cause of specific injuries suffered by
the plaintiffs. Defendants' strategy is to undermine the reliability
of plaintiffs' proffers, and their tactic is to poke holes in
plaintiffs' expert reports by challenging the methodologies and
results of plaintiffs' source attribution studies, questioning the
extent to which particular impacts have been (or can be) directly
attributed to climate change, and highlighting the importance of
confounding factors in creating any injuries suffered by the
plaintiffs. We expect these lines of reasoning will predominate in
this and other climate cases that seek to assign blame, force
action, or recover damages for climate change.<br>
<br>
For now, though, we expect to hear from the 9th Circuit on the
validity of the constitutional and public trust claims. The
courtroom battle over the science of climate change will have to
wait for another day.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2019/01/07/the-trial-of-the-century-a-preview-of-how-climate-science-could-play-out-in-the-courtroom-courtesy-of-juliana-v-united-states/">http://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2019/01/07/the-trial-of-the-century-a-preview-of-how-climate-science-could-play-out-in-the-courtroom-courtesy-of-juliana-v-united-states/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Executive order]<br>
<b>Gov. Wolf sets target of slashing Pa.'s greenhouse gas pollution
80 percent by 2050</b><br>
ANYA LITVAK AND LAURA LEGERE<br>
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette<br>
Gov. Tom Wolf has set Pennsylvania's first economy-wide target for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and proposed steps for the
agencies under his watch to slash their energy use, through an
executive order he signed on Tuesday at the Heinz History Center.<br>
<br>
The governor made the announcement while hailing Peoples Natural
Gas, the North Shore-based utility that announced a plan to cut its
methane emissions in half, as a model for how industry and
government can tackle the problem without confrontation.<br>
<br>
"The threat that we're confronting is not an abstract problem," he
said at an event organized by the Environmental Defense Fund, a New
York-based nonprofit. "2018 was the wettest year on record with
flooding. That's affected our farms. It's devastated homes. This is
affecting all of our lives each and every day."<br>
<br>
"...His goals — a 26 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
statewide by 2025 and an 80 percent reduction by 2050, both from
2005 levels — are the same as those the state Department of
Environmental Protection wrote into its draft climate change action
plan in November.<br>
<br>
The targets are ambitious but mirror federal projections for what it
will take to keep global temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius
above preindustrial levels — the international consensus threshold
for avoiding the worst effects of climate change, although
devastating changes are expected to start with even less warming.<br>
<br>
The 2025 target is the same as what the U.S. promised to meet as
part of the Paris Agreement, a climate accord among nearly all of
the world's nations that the Trump administration plans to withdraw
from...."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.post-gazette.com/business/powersource/2019/01/08/Wolf-Pennsylvania-greenhouse-gas-carbon-climate/stories/201901080082">https://www.post-gazette.com/business/powersource/2019/01/08/Wolf-Pennsylvania-greenhouse-gas-carbon-climate/stories/201901080082</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[important]<br>
<b>Rising Waters Are Drowning Amtrak's Northeast Corridor</b><br>
By the middle of this century, climate change may punch a hole
through the bottom half of the Northeast Corridor.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-amtrak-sea-level/">https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-amtrak-sea-level/</a>
<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[just a little history for our discussions]<br>
Opinion [NYTimes]<br>
<b>Going Nowhere Fast on Climate, Year After Year</b><br>
Three decades after a top climate scientist warned Congress of the
dangers of global warming, greenhouse gas emissions keep rising and
so do global temperatures.<br>
By Paul Bledsoe<br>
Mr. Bledsoe lectures on environmental policy at American University.<br>
Dec. 29, 2018<br>
Thirty years ago, a NASA scientist, James Hansen, told lawmakers at
a Senate hearing that "global warming is now large enough that we
can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause-and-effect
relationship with the greenhouse effect." He added that there "is
only 1 percent chance of accidental warming of this magnitude."<br>
<br>
By that, he meant that humans were responsible.<br>
<br>
His testimony made headlines around the United States and the world.
But in the time since, greenhouse gas emissions, the global
temperature average and cost of climate-related heat, wildfires,
droughts, flooding and hurricanes have continued to rise.<br>
<br>
This fall, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change released an alarming report warning that if emissions
continue to rise at their present rate, the atmosphere will warm up
by as much as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above
preindustrial levels by 2040, resulting in the flooding of
coastlines, the killing of coral reefs worldwide, and more
catastrophic droughts and wildfires.<br>
<br>
To avoid this, greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by nearly
half from 2010 levels in the next 12 years and reach a net of zero
by 2050. But in the United States, the world's second-largest
emitter of greenhouse gases, President Trump continues to question
the science of climate change, and his administration is rolling
back emissions limits on power plants and fuel economy standards on
cars and light trucks, while pushing to accelerate the use of fossil
fuels. Other major nations around the world aren't cutting emissions
quickly enough, either.<br>
<br>
So what has happened over the last 30 years? Progress has been made
in fits and starts, but not nearly enough has been done to confront
the planet-altering magnitude of what we have unleashed. Here's a
look at some of what has occurred:<br>
<br>
<b>1988</b><br>
A report to Congress by the Environmental Protection Agency warns
that global warming caused by industrial pollutants is likely to
shrink forests, destroy most coastal wetlands, reduce water quality
and quantity in many areas and otherwise cause extensive
environmental disruption in the United States over the next century.<br>
<br>
The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization form
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to report to world
leaders on the science of climate change.<br>
<br>
<b>1989</b><br>
Britain's prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, who earned a degree in
chemistry at Oxford, tells the United Nations in a speech, "We are
seeing a vast increase in the amount of carbon dioxide reaching the
atmosphere." She warns that, as a result, "change in future is
likely to be more fundamental and more widespread than anything we
have known hitherto." She calls for a global treaty on climate
change.<br>
<br>
<b>1990</b><br>
In its first report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
says that "human activities are substantially increasing the
atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases" and will lead to
a predicted "increase of global mean temperature during the" 21st
century "of about 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade," which it says is
"greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years." That's a little
more than a half-degree Fahrenheit per decade.<br>
<br>
<b>1991</b><br>
An internal study by the oil giant Exxon finds that "warming will
clearly affect sea ice, icebergs, permafrost and sea levels" in the
Arctic and that "higher sea levels and bigger waves" could "damage
the company's existing and future coastal and offshore
infrastructure."<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>1992</b><br>
The United States and 171 other nations, meeting at the Earth Summit
in Brazil, sign a treaty on climate change to limit greenhouse gas
emissions to a level that will not interfere with the planet's
climate. But the deal lacks mechanisms to achieve that goal.<br>
<br>
<b>1993</b><br>
President Bill Clinton proposes a federal tax on fossil energy
sources to help reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The measure
narrowly passes the House of Representatives but dies in the Senate;
a gasoline tax increase of 4.3 cents per gallon becomes law instead,
the last time federal energy taxes have been raised.<br>
<br>
<b>1994</b><br>
An Earth Summit agreement, approved by 166 counties, enters into
force, committing nations to "stabilizing greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."<br>
<br>
<b>1995</b><br>
Countries that signed the Earth Summit agreement in 1992 agree to
negotiate "binding targets" on emissions for major developed
countries like the United States, but set significantly less
stringent requirements for developing countries like China and
India.<br>
<br>
<b>1996</b><br>
Climate change plays almost no role in the presidential campaign,
with no mentions in the presidential debates and only a passing
reference in the vice-presidential debate.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>1997</b><br>
Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, reach the
highest levels in at least 400,000 years, as measured in Arctic ice
cores.<br>
<br>
More than 1,500 scientists from 63 countries, including 110 Nobel
Prize winners, issue a call to action: "A broad consensus among the
world's climatologists is that there is now a discernible human
influence on global climate" that represents "one of the most
serious threats to the planet and to future generations."<br>
<br>
One hundred and ninety-two nations agree to the Kyoto Protocol to
fight global warming. The agreement requires the United States and
other developed countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but not
developing countries like China.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>1998</b><br>
The global average temperature of 58 degrees Fahrenheit is the
warmest since reliable records began about 120 years ago.<br>
<br>
Industry opponents of the Kyoto Protocol draft a proposal to spend
millions of dollars to convince the public that the environmental
accord is based on shaky science.<br>
<br>
<b>2000</b><br>
In the presidential campaign, George W. Bush, the Republican
nominee, promises to cut carbon dioxide emissions from power plants,
while Al Gore, the Democratic candidate, calls for aggressive
climate policies but does not make climate change a major campaign
issue and mentions it only once in the debates.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>2001</b><br>
Under strong pressure from conservative Republicans and industry
groups, President Bush says his administration will not seek to
regulate emissions of carbon dioxide from power plants. reversing a
campaign pledge. He also says he will seek to withdraw the United
States from the Kyoto climate accord and that the United States will
not comply with its emissions-reduction targets.<br>
<br>
China declines to slow the rapid growth of its greenhouse gas
emissions.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>2002</b><br>
President Bush proposes a voluntary plan involving tax credits and
other incentives to encourage businesses and farmers to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions.<br>
<br>
<b>2003</b><br>
The Senate votes 55 to 43 against a bill sponsored by Senator John
McCain, a Republican from Arizona, and Senator Joe Lieberman, a
Democrat from Connecticut, to limit carbon dioxide emissions by
creating a market-driven "cap and trade" program. Only four
Republicans vote yes.<br>
<br>
The Republican campaign adviser Frank Luntz writes a memo to party
officials noting: "Should the public come to believe that the
scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will
change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack
of scientific certainty a primary issue."<br>
<br>
<b>2004</b><br>
Climate scientists across the globe overwhelming agree that evidence
of climate change is clear and persuasive, according to a detailed
analysis in Science Magazine by the science historian Naomi Oreskes.
As she puts it: "Many details about climate interactions are not
well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research
to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The
question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But
there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic
climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make
this clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen."<br>
<br>
<b>2005</b><br>
At a climate conference in Montreal, the United States and China
refuse to agree to take mandatory steps to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.<br>
<br>
Congress passes an energy policy act that provides tax and other
incentives for some low emissions energy sources, including nuclear
power, hydropower and wind and solar power. But it also continues
large subsidies for fossil fuels.<br>
<br>
<b>2006</b><br>
With its rapid industrialization, China surpasses the United States
as the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.<br>
<br>
<b>2007</b><br>
Congress raises auto fuel efficiency standards for the first time
since 1976.<br>
<br>
<b>2008</b><br>
Barack Obama and John McCain, the Democratic and Republican
presidential candidates, endorse limiting greenhouse gas emissions
through cap-and-trade legislation.<br>
<br>
<b>2009</b><br>
The House of Representatives passes a cap-and-trade bill that would
require cuts in greenhouse gas emissions of 17 percent below 2005
levels by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050. Only eight Republicans vote
yes. The bill never receives a vote in the Senate, even though
Democrats control 57 seats and two independents caucus with them.<br>
<br>
The American Petroleum Institute, funded by major oil companies,
helps organize and pay for the first Tea Party rallies, including
protests against the House-passed cap-and-trade legislation.<br>
<br>
President Obama says the United States will cut greenhouse gas
emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 as part of the
Copenhagen Accord signed by 193 nations. Large developing nations,
including China, also pledge reductions, though they are voluntary.<br>
<br>
<b>2010</b><br>
The International Energy Agency reports that global energy-related
emissions of carbon dioxide hit a high of 30.6 billion tons, an
increase of 1.6 billion tons over 2009.<br>
<br>
President Obama reaches an agreement with American auto companies to
raise fuel efficiency standards to 54 miles per gallon by 2025, the
largest emissions-cutting action of his presidency.<br>
<br>
<b>2011</b><br>
More than half of all carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels
combustion since the Industrial Revolution began in 1751 have
occurred just since the mid-1980s, according to a study by
scientists for the United States government.<br>
<br>
Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States decline slightly, but
China's have increased by about 170 percent since 1999.<br>
<br>
<b>2012</b><br>
In his acceptance speech to become the Republican presidential
nominee, Mitt Romney mocks President Obama's climate efforts:
"President Obama promised to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal
the planet. My promise is to help you and your family."<br>
<br>
<b>2013</b><br>
Scientists report that concentrations of carbon dioxide reached a
record 400 parts per million in the atmosphere, the highest levels
in at least three million years, before human beings evolved, and
that global emissions rose by 60 percent between 1990 and 2013.<br>
<br>
In his second Inaugural Address, President Obama calls climate
change the leading issue of our time. "We will respond to the threat
of climate change, knowing that failure to do so would betray our
children and future generations."<br>
<br>
More than 60 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions come from six
nations: China, 30 percent; the United States, 16 percent; India, 6
percent; Russia, 5 percent; Japan, 4 percent; and Germany, 3
percent.<br>
<br>
<b>2014</b><br>
President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China announce limits on
greenhouse gas emissions; the United States agrees to cut emissions
by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025; China says it will
begin scaling back emissions before 2030. The agreement sets the
stage for a global climate deal.<br>
<br>
A United Nations study finds that even if global greenhouse gas
emissions are cut to the level required to keep temperature rise
below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 2 degrees Celsius, the cost of
climate change adaptation in developing countries is likely to reach
two to three times previous estimates of $70 billion to $100 billion
per year by 2050<br>
<br>
<b>2015</b><br>
The Paris climate accord is approved by 195 nations, including the
United States, marking the first time that all major nations pledge
to make emissions reductions to limit the global average temperature
increase to less than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.<br>
<br>
The Republican-controlled Congress votes to phase out tax credits
for wind and solar energy by 2020; various tax incentives for fossil
fuel production remain. President Obama signs the bill, citing
support from the renewable energy industry.<br>
<br>
<b>2016</b><br>
2016 is the warmest year on record, the third consecutive year that
a global annual temperature record has been set, and the 40th
consecutive year that annual temperatures have been above the
20th-century average. The five warmest years have all occurred since
2010.<br>
<br>
James Hansen and other scientists publish research finding that
current global temperatures are the highest in at least 115,000
years, when sea levels were 20 to 30 feet higher than today.<br>
<br>
Nearly all of the 16 Republican presidential hopefuls deny the
science of climate change, and none support the Paris climate
agreement. Donald Trump pledges to "cancel" American involvement in
the Paris accord.<br>
<br>
Not a single question on climate change is asked by moderators in
any of the four presidential or vice-presidential debates.<br>
<br>
The United States joins with 189 other countries to phase out
hydrofluorocarbons, gases used as refrigerants, a move that will
stave off nearly a degree Fahrenheit of warming by 2100.<br>
<br>
Mr. Trump is elected president following a campaign in which he
called for more fossil fuel drilling, fewer environmental
regulations and vowed to pull the United States out of the Paris
climate accord. "Regulations that shut down hundreds of coal-fired
power plants and block the construction of new ones — how stupid is
that?" Mr. Trump asked during the campaign.<br>
<br>
<b>2017</b><br>
Following up on his campaign promises, President Trump signs an
executive order directing his administration to undo regulations to
cut emissions from the electric power sector; orders the resumption
of the federal coal leasing program; says he will seek to weaken
fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks; and proposes to
cut the budget of the Environmental Protection Agency by 30 percent.
He also says he will withdraw the United States from the Paris
climate accord.<br>
<br>
Hurricane Harvey unleashes 50 inches of rain, the largest rainfall
in United States history, paralyzing five million in Houston,
killing 30, with a price tag of at least tens of billions of dollars
to federal taxpayers. Multiple peer-reviewed studies find that
Hurricane Harvey was made as much as 40 percent larger and more
intense because of warming Gulf of Mexico waters tied to the
changing climate.<br>
<br>
More than 30 leading climate science and policy experts, including
Nobel Prize winners, say that limiting global temperatures to below
3.6 degrees Fahrenheit will require removing fossil fuels from the
global energy system by 2050, reducing emissions of super greenhouse
gas pollutants like HFCs, methane and black carbon rapidly by 2030,
and extracting carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere.<br>
<br>
<b>2018</b><br>
Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reach 410 parts
per million, the highest level in at least three million years<br>
<br>
President Trump insists coal is the key to the country's energy and
economic future and orders Energy Secretary Rick Perry to take
immediate steps to prevent market shutdowns of coal plants.<br>
<br>
The Trump administration says it will roll back fuel economy
standards set by the Obama administration for cars and light trucks,
a move that would increase greenhouse gas emissions in the United
States by an amount greater than many midsize countries put out in a
year.<br>
<br>
In another move to undo the Obama climate legacy, the Trump
administration proposes letting states set their own coal emissions
regulations, upending rules to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from
coal-fired power plants. Many experts say this will cause greenhouse
gas emissions from the power sector to begin rising for the first
time in decades.<br>
<br>
<p>After falling for more than a decade, carbon dioxide emissions in
the United States are set to rise by 2.5 percent in 2018. Global
emissions grew by 1.6 percent in 2017 and will increase by about
2.7 percent in 2018.</p>
<p>Go. Jerry Brown of California signs legislation requiring that
100 percent of the state's electricity come from carbon-free
sources by 2045.</p>
Thirteen federal agencies present the starkest warnings to date of
the consequences of climate change for the United States, predicting
in a report that if significant steps are not taken to rein in
global warming, the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the
size of the American economy by century's end. The report warns of
devastating effects on the economy, health and the environment,
including record wildfires in California, crop failures in the
Midwest and crumbling infrastructure in the South.<br>
<br>
An international team of scientists finds a growing likelihood that
runaway warming could destabilize the entire global climate system
and lead to a "Hothouse Earth" that in the long term will push
global average temperatures to seven to nine degrees Fahrenheit
warmer than preindustrial temperatures, with seas 60 to 200 feet
higher than today. "Humanity is now facing the need for critical
decisions and actions that could influence our future for centuries,
if not millennia," the scientists write.<br>
<br>
Paul Bledsoe is strategic adviser at the Progressive Policy
Institute and a lecturer at American University's Center for
Environmental Studies. He served on the White House Climate Change
Task Force under President Bill Clinton.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-history.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-history.html</a><br>
[much happened before 1988 too]<br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b>This Day in Climate History - January 9, 1989 -
from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
January 9, 1989: In a letter to House Speaker Jim Wright and Vice
President George H. W. Bush, President Ronald Reagan writes:
"Because changes in the earth's natural systems can have tremendous
economic and social effects, global climate change is becoming a
critical concern."<br>
(Apparently, Reagan's reference to the "critical concern" of climate
change has never been acknowledged by right-wing media entities such
as the Fox News Channel.)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=35346">http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=35346</a> <br>
<br>
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