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<font size="+1"><i>January 10, 2019</i></font><br>
<br>
[liability news]<br>
<b>Massive Wildfire Costs Could Sink California's Largest Utility</b><br>
By Dana Drugmand - January 9, 2019<br>
Facing billions of dollars in damage costs and numerous lawsuits for
its role in sparking devastating wildfires in northern California,
the state's largest utility is now exploring options to avoid
financial ruin, including a possible bankruptcy filing. But while
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. reckons with potentially crippling
liability because its electrical equipment likely started several
blazes, the question of who will ultimately pay for
losses--particularly those from the recent Camp Fire, the deadliest
and most destructive fire in California history--remains unanswered.<br>
<br>
The Camp Fire was the world's costliest natural disaster of 2018,
with overall losses estimated at $16.5 billion, according to new
figures released by Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurance
company. The cause of the fire remains under investigation.<br>
<br>
California's utility customers may be on the hook for much of those
costs if state lawmakers or the California Public Utilities
Commission (PUC) allows the company to recover its losses with rate
increases. Last year, the state legislature passed a bill that
permitted investor-owned utilities to pass on wildfire-related costs
to consumers. The bill pertained to the 2017 wildfires and
subsequent fires beginning in 2019, but it did not address fires
occurring in 2018.<br>
<br>
PG&E requested a 12 percent rate increase in December, a total
of $1.1 billion. The company is asking for $9.6 billion in 2020
compared to $8.5 billion approved for 2019.<br>
<br>
That rate increase, if approved, would increase the typical
customer's bill by 6.4 percent, but it would not cover liability
claims. PG&E could face $30 billion in potential liability from
the 2017 and 2018 wildfires. That figure doesn't include fines,
penalties or punitive damages.<br>
<br>
Nearly two dozen lawsuits by Camp Fire victims have been filed
against PG&E. Insurance companies are also suing the utility,
and the state's attorney general indicated in a recent court filing
that the company may be charged criminally, including for murder.
PG&E's potential legal liability is heightened by the doctrine
of inverse condemnation, which says a party can he held liable for
property damage even if it was not negligent. Under California law,
the doctrine applies to public utilities.<br>
<br>
PG&E has argued that it should not be held strictly liable for
these fires because climate change is increasingly exacerbating fire
risk. Although utility equipment may spark fires, extremely warm and
dry conditions play a role in amplifying the destruction. This
raises further questions around wildfire liability costs and who
should foot the bill...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/01/09/wildfire-costs-california-utilities/">https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/01/09/wildfire-costs-california-utilities/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[going forward anyway]<br>
<b>A Major Climate Treaty to Reduce Air Conditioning Emissions Just
Went Into Force--Without the U.S.</b><br>
Brian Kahn<br>
While the world was still hungover from the major climate conference
in Poland last month, a game-changing climate treaty quietly went
into effect. The Kigali Amendment entered into force as the calendar
turned to 2019 and with it, the world began to put the clamps down
on some of the most potent greenhouse gases on Earth. Now if only
the U.S. would sign on.<br>
<br>
It's taken years for the amendment to take shape and ratify, and it
all stems from a big whoopsie in the 1980s. Then, scientists
realized that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)--chemicals commonly found
in air conditioners, refrigerators, and other cooling
technologies--were screwing up Earth's ozone layer. The world's
governments acted quickly to phase them out, passing the Montreal
Protocol, an international treaty that's considered to be among the
most successful environmental treaties ever agreed to.<br>
<br>
There was just one problem: The chemicals that replaced CFCs were
insanely potent greenhouse gases. Pound for pound,
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) warm the planet up to 11,700 times more
than carbon dioxide. And ironically, as the planet heats up, the
need for air conditioning will increase, resulting in more emissions
tied to HFCs. To stave that off, countries proposed amending the
Montreal Protocol to phase these chemicals out too. Doing so could
cut global warming up to 0.4°C by 2100.<br>
<br>
In 2016, the world agreed to the Kigali Amendment and since then,
countries have been signing on. The amendment went into force last
week with 65 countries ratifying it. Those ranks include industrial
heavy hitters like European Union, Japan, Canada, and Australia as
well as a host of developing nations, and the United Nations said it
expects more to join the coming weeks. Notably absent are China and
the U.S., the two biggest manufacturers and users of HFCs. China is
expected to sign on.<br>
<br>
The U.S. remains a wildcard, though, largely due to the White House
and its seeming inability to get its act together. The Kigali is a
rare environmental agreement that basically everyone else agrees is
necessary...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/a-major-climate-treaty-to-reduce-air-conditioning-emiss-1831545369">https://earther.gizmodo.com/a-major-climate-treaty-to-reduce-air-conditioning-emiss-1831545369</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[clips from Interview w Diva of Climate Communications]<br>
<b>Katharine Hayhoe: 'A thermometer is not liberal or conservative'</b><br>
Jonathan Wattts<br>
The award-winning atmospheric scientist on the urgency of the
climate crisis and why people are her biggest hope<br>
Katharine Hayhoe:<b> 'Fear is a short-term spur to action, but to
make changes over the long term, we must have hope.' </b><br>
<br>
Katharine Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist and director of the
Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. She has contributed
to more than 125 scientific papers and won numerous prizes for her
science communication work. In 2018 she was a contributor to the US
National Climate Assessment and was awarded the Stephen H Schneider
award for outstanding climate science communication.<br>
<b>In 2018, we have seen forest fires in the Arctic circle; record
high temperatures in parts of Australia, Africa and the US; floods
in India; and devastating droughts in South Africa and Argentina.
Is this a turning point? </b><br>
This year has hit home how climate change loads the dice against us
by taking naturally occurring weather events and amplifying them. We
now have attribution studies that show how much more likely or
stronger extreme weather events have become as a result of human
emissions. For example, wildfires in the western US now burn nearly
twice the area they would without climate change, and almost 40%
more rain fell during Hurricane Harvey than would have otherwise. So
we are really feeling the impacts and know how much humanity is
responsible...<br>
- - -<br>
<b>What are the most positive developments you have seen in the past
year in the climate field? </b><br>
<br>
I'm asked what gives me hope on a daily basis, and my answer is, I
don't find hope in my science, I find it in people. Over the last
few years, the number of people who want to talk about and do
something about climate has increased exponentially. Then, there is
the unexpected leadership of organisations such as Young
Evangelicals for Climate Action, RepublicEN, the Iron and Earth
group – young professionals in the oil and construction industries
who want to be part of the move from fossil fuels; and the take-up
of renewables even in conservative states like Texas, which now gets
20% of its energy from wind and solar power.<br>
<br>
Finally, there's the encouraging news such as solar being the
fastest-growing power source around the world, clean energy jobs
growing from India to the US, and new technology being developed
every year that drops the price and increases the accessibility of
fossil fuel alternatives.<br>
<br>
<b>This year has also seen the rise of disruptive campaigning, for
example Extinction Rebellion in the UK; the student strikes led by
Greta Thunberg; and direct action in the US and Canada against oil
pipelines. Is there a point when scientists also have to speak out
more forcefully?</b><br>
<br>
We are moving in that direction. Scientists are not just disembodied
brains floating in a glass jar, we are humans who want the same
thing every other human wants, a safe place to live on this planet
we call home. So while our work must continue to be unbiased and
objective, increasingly we are raising our voices, adding to the
clear message that climate change is real and humans are
responsible, the impacts are serious and we must act now, if we want
to avoid the worst of them.<br>
<br>
<b>What are the key political moments in 2019 for climate policy in
the US and the world? </b><br>
International talks are important but we should be looking at
subnational actors because there is a lot going on at the city and
corporate level. Across the US a hundred cities have committed to
going 100% clean energy. Companies like Apple have already achieved
that goal. In the US there's a new climate bill with bipartisan
sponsors, which is essential for legislation to succeed long-term.<br>
<br>
<b>Are we likely to get any respite from climate change? </b><br>
(Sighs.) Climate change is a long-term trend superimposed over
natural variability. There'll be good and bad years, just like there
are for a patient with a long-term illness, but it isn't going away.
To stabilise climate change, we have to eliminate our carbon
emissions. And we're still a long way away from that.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/06/katharine-hayhoe-interview-climate-change-scientist-crisis-hope">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/06/katharine-hayhoe-interview-climate-change-scientist-crisis-hope</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[BBC opinions philosophical]<br>
Deep Civilisation Prediction Philosophy<br>
<b>The perils of short-termism: Civilisation's greatest threat</b><br>
Our inability to look beyond the latest news cycle could be one of
the most dangerous traits of our generation, says Richard Fisher.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190109-the-perils-of-short-termism-civilisations-greatest-threat">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190109-the-perils-of-short-termism-civilisations-greatest-threat</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[some calculations say more]<br>
<b>Global warming of oceans equivalent to an atomic bomb per second</b><br>
Seas absorb 90% of climate change's energy as new research reveals
vast heating over past 150 years<br>
<br>
Global warming has heated the oceans by the equivalent of one atomic
bomb explosion per second for the past 150 years, according to
analysis of new research.<br>
<br>
More than 90% of the heat trapped by humanity's greenhouse gas
emissions has been absorbed by the seas, with just a few per cent
heating the air, land and ice caps respectively. The vast amount of
energy being added to the oceans drives sea-level rise and enables
hurricanes and typhoons to become more intense.<br>
<br>
Much of the heat has been stored in the ocean depths but
measurements here only began in recent decades and existing
estimates of the total heat the oceans have absorbed stretch back
only to about 1950. The new work extends that back to 1871.
Scientists have said that understanding past changes in ocean heat
was critical for predicting the future impact of climate change.<br>
<br>
A Guardian calculation found the average heating across that
150-year period was equivalent to about 1.5 Hiroshima-size atomic
bombs per second. But the heating has accelerated over that time as
carbon emissions have risen, and was now the equivalent of between
three and six atomic bombs per second.<br>
<br>
"I try not to make this type of calculation, simply because I find
it worrisome," said Prof Laure Zanna, at the University of Oxford,
who led the new research. "We usually try to compare the heating to
[human] energy use, to make it less scary."<br>
<br>
She added: "But obviously, we are putting a lot of excess energy
into the climate system and a lot of that ends up in the ocean,.
There is no doubt." The total heat taken up by the oceans over the
past 150 years was about 1,000 times the annual energy use of the
entire global population.<br>
<br>
The research has been published in the journal Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences and combined measurements of the
surface temperature of the ocean since 1871 with computer models of
ocean circulation.<br>
<br>
Prof Samar Khatiwala, also at the University of Oxford and part of
the team, said: "Our approach is akin to 'painting' different bits
of the ocean surface with dyes of different colours and monitoring
how they spread into the interior over time. If we know what the sea
surface temperature anomaly was in 1871 in the North Atlantic Ocean
we can figure out how much it contributes to the warming in, say,
the deep Indian Ocean in 2018."<br>
<br>
Rising sea level has been among the most dangerous long-term impacts
of climate change, threatening billions of people living in coastal
cities, and estimating future rises is vital in preparing defences.
Some of the rise comes from the melting of land-bound ice in
Greenland and elsewhere, but another major factor has been the
physical expansion of water as it gets warmer.<br>
<br>
However, the seas do not warm uniformly as ocean currents transport
heat around the world. Reconstructing the amount of heat absorbed by
the oceans over the past 150 years is important as it provides a
baseline. In the Atlantic, for example, the team found that half the
rise seen since 1971 at low and middle latitudes resulted from heat
transported into the region by currents.<br>
<br>
The new work would help researchers make better predictions of
sea-level rise for different regions in the future. "Future changes
in ocean transport could have severe consequences for regional
sea-level rise and the risk of coastal flooding," the researchers
said. "Understanding ocean heat change and the role of circulation
in shaping the patterns of warming remain key to predicting global
and regional climate change and sea-level rise."<br>
<br>
Dana Nuccitelli, an environmental scientist who was not involved in
the new research, said: "The ocean heating rate has increased as
global warming has accelerated, and the value is somewhere between
roughly three to six Hiroshima bombs per second in recent decades,
depending on which dataset and which timeframe is used. This new
study estimates the ocean heating rate at about three Hiroshima
bombs per second for the period of 1990 to 2015, which is on the low
end of other estimates."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/07/global-warming-of-oceans-equivalent-to-an-atomic-bomb-per-second">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/07/global-warming-of-oceans-equivalent-to-an-atomic-bomb-per-second</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
[up again]<br>
<b>U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Are Once Again On The Rise</b><br>
January 8, 2019<br>
Heard on All Things Considered<br>
Carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. are on the rise again after
several years of decline, and a booming economy is the cause.<br>
<br>
That's according to a report out today from the Rhodium Group, an
independent research firm that tracks CO2 emissions in the U.S.<br>
<br>
"It appears based on preliminary data that emissions in the U.S.
grew by the highest rate since 2010 when we were recovering from the
great recession," says Trevor Houser, a partner at Rhodium and an
author on the new estimate.<br>
<br>
Emissions rose roughly 3.4 percent in 2018, he says.<br>
<br>
The big drivers were increased electricity demand and growth in
trucking and aviation.<br>
<br>
The report underscores an unusual upside to an economic downturn:
When the economy shrinks, greenhouse gas emissions also go down.
That's what happened in the throes of the financial crisis in 2008
-- carbon dioxide emissions plummeted. They've been bouncing up and
down since then. But last year, the strong economic growth meant a
rise. A cold winter was also a factor, particularly because it led
to higher consumption of natural gas and fuel oil in homes for heat.<br>
There were some areas where decisions by government and industry
helped to reduce some types of emissions. A record number of
coal-fired power plants closed last year. And emissions from
passenger automobiles dropped slightly, due to better fuel-economy
standards. But it wasn't enough, and Houser wants more aggressive
policies to drive drown CO2. That seems unlikely for now. Policies
to limit greenhouse gas emissions started under the Obama
administration are now being halted and even reversed under
President Trump.<br>
<br>
"What we've seen is backsliding in federal policy, and we're
starting to feel the effects of that now," Houser says.<br>
<br>
The report means the U.S. is less likely to meet its reduction
targets under the global Paris climate agreement, according to
Andrew Light, a senior fellow at the World Resources Institute. When
the U.S. signed on to the agreement in 2015, then-President Obama
promised a 26-28 percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2025.<br>
<br>
There's still time to catch up, Light says. "If we do get back on
track in the United States toward having an energy policy that's
consistent with the threat of climate change then we can turn these
things around," he says.<br>
<br>
Stock markets have faltered in recent months, indicating the U.S.
might be headed toward another recession. That could cause emissions
to drop, but Houser says it would not be productive.<br>
<br>
"A short-term emissions decline as a result of a recession is not
something anyone's cheering for," he says. "We do the best on this
issue when the economy is thriving, and there are policies in place
that can channel investment into clean energy technologies."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/08/683258294/u-s-carbon-dioxide-emissions-are-once-again-on-the-rise">https://www.npr.org/2019/01/08/683258294/u-s-carbon-dioxide-emissions-are-once-again-on-the-rise</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[heat rises, ice melts]<br>
<b>When the ice melts: the catastrophe of vanishing glaciers</b><br>
As global temperatures rise, shrivelling glaciers and thawing
permafrost threaten yet more climate disruption. How should we
confront what is happening to our world? <br>
By Dahr Jamail<br>
My teammates pull me up to the lip of the crevasse. I repeatedly
plunge the pick of my ice axe into the snow and haul myself out,
never before as grateful for being on top of a glacier. I stand and
gaze up at a mountain to the west, behind which the sun has just
set. Snow plumes stream off one of its ridges, turned into red
ribbons by the setting sun. Snowflakes flicker as they float into
space.<br>
<br>
As relief floods my shivering body, I roar in gratitude. Utterly
overwhelmed by being alive and surrounded by the beauty of the
mountain world, I hug each of my three climbing partners. Now that I
am safe, it sinks in just how close to death I've been.<br>
<br>
That was 22 April 2003 – Earth Day. In hindsight, I believe the
emotion I felt then stemmed in part from something else – a deeper
consciousness that the ice I had seen was vanishing. Seven years of
climbing in Alaska had provided me with a front-row seat from where
I could witness the dramatic impact of human-caused climate
disruption. Each year, we found that the toe of the glacier had
shrivelled further. Each year, for the annual early season
ice-climbing festival on this glacier, we found ourselves hiking
further up the crusty frozen mud left behind by its rapidly
retreating terminus. Each year, the parking lot was moved closer to
the glacier, only to be left farther away as the ice withdrew. Even
sections of Denali – the highest mountain in North America, which
stands more than 20,000 feet tall and is roughly 250 miles from the
Arctic Circle – had already undergone startling changes in 2003: the
ice of its glaciers was disappearing quickly...<br>
- - -<br>
A glacier is essentially suspended energy, suspended force. It is,
in a sense, life frozen in time. But now they are themselves running
out of time. The planet's ecosystems, pushed far beyond their
capacity to adapt to human-generated traumas and stresses, are in a
state of freefall. Just as I watched hundreds of years of time
compressed into glacial ice flash before my eyes in a matter of
seconds as I fell into the crevasse, swathes of the natural world
are, in the blink of a geological eye, falling into oblivion.<br>
<br>
Modern life has compressed time and space. You can traverse the
globe in a matter of hours, or gain information in nanoseconds. The
price for this, along with everything we want, on demand, all the
time, is a total disconnection from the planet that sustains our
lives...<br>
- - <br>
While western colonialist culture believes in "rights", many
indigenous cultures teach of "obligations" that we are born into:
obligations to those who came before, to those who will come after,
and to the Earth itself. When I orient myself around the question of
what my obligations are, a deeper question immediately arises: from
this moment on, knowing what is happening to the planet, to what do
I devote my life?<br>
<br>
This is an edited extract from The End of Ice by Dahr Jamail, which
will be published by The New Press on 15 January<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/08/when-the-ice-melts-the-catastrophe-of-vanishing-glaciers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail">https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/08/when-the-ice-melts-the-catastrophe-of-vanishing-glaciers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<font size="+1"><b>This Day in Climate History - January 10, 2017-
from D.R. Tucker</b></font><br>
In his final address as President, Barack Obama declares:<br>
<blockquote>"Take the challenge of climate change. In just eight
years, we've<br>
halved our dependence on foreign oil, doubled our renewable
energy,<br>
and led the world to an agreement that has the promise to save
this<br>
planet. But without bolder action, our children won’t have time
to<br>
debate the existence of climate change; they'll be busy dealing
with<br>
its effects: environmental disasters, economic disruptions, and
waves<br>
of climate refugees seeking sanctuary.<br>
"Now, we can and should argue about the best approach to the
problem.<br>
But to simply deny the problem not only betrays future
generations; it<br>
betrays the essential spirit of innovation and practical<br>
problem-solving that guided our Founders."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-obama-farewell-speech-transcript-20170110-story.html">http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-obama-farewell-speech-transcript-20170110-story.html</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/siyBp8Csugk">https://youtu.be/siyBp8Csugk</a><br>
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