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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>April 6, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[3rd biggest jump]<br>
<b>Unexpec</b><b>ted Surge in Atmospheric Methane</b><br>
Summary<br>
A dramatic and surprising surge in atmospheric methane has emerged
over the past several years. The size of the surge is significant.
If not mitigated, this new trend could, for example, wipe out the
gains anticipated from the Paris Climate Agreement. In response,
scientists have begun ringing alarm bells in several high-profile
peer-reviewed publications.<br>
<br>
It is not entirely clear what factors are driving the surge.
However, there is a firm consensus among scientists that the best
response is deep and rapid reductions in methane emitted from the
production and distribution of natural gas.<br>
<br>
Methane pollution from the natural gas sector is responsible for a
lion's share of current anthropogenic emissions. This baseline
pollution sustains methane in the atmosphere at a level far above
pre-industrial conditions. This pollution is also the most easily
addressed source of methane. The International Energy Agency
estimates that the global oil and gas industry can reduce 40-50% of
methane emissions at zero net cost. Looking at end uses, clean
alternatives to gas-fired power (e.g. utility-scale wind and solar)
are now cost-competitive options.<br>
<br>
In the United States, the fossil fuel industry is the largest source
of methane pollution, and emissions from the oil and gas sector have
grown at least 40% over the last decade...<br>
- - -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatenexus.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ch4_trend_all_glThroughNov2019.png">https://climatenexus.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ch4_trend_all_glThroughNov2019.png</a><br>
- - <br>
While the size of the role of fossil-fuel production and
distribution in driving the recent surge in global methane is still
under investigation, it is already well documented that fossil-fuel
production is one of the major drivers in sustaining industrial era
methane levels.[35] As a result, reducing fossil-fuel methane
emissions would have a significant impact in addressing impact of
the methane surge. The lifetime of methane in the atmosphere is
relatively short (∼11 years), i.e. it washes out of the atmosphere
fairly quickly (unlike CO2). Thus, large anthropogenic emissions are
required to simply sustain the elevated global methane levels of the
industrial era. A significant reduction in anthropogenic emissions
quickly translates into a reduction in atmospheric methane.<br>
<br>
Fossil-fuel methane emissions are also the most easily addressed
source of emissions. The International Energy Agency estimates
industry can reduce its worldwide emissions by 75 percent--and that
up to two-thirds of those reductions (40-50% of total emissions) can
be realized at zero net cost.[36]<br>
<br>
In addition, there are particular opportunities to address emissions
from agriculture. Changes in the diet of livestock could reduce the
production of methane in dairy cattle without reducing milk
production.[37]<br>
<br>
In this context the 23 authors of Nisbet et al wrote: "We may not be
able to influence the factors driving the new rise in methane,
especially if it is a climate change feedback, but by monitoring,
quantifying and reducing the very large anthropogenic inputs,
especially from the gas, coal and cattle industries, and perhaps by
direct removal, we may be able to cut the total methane burden to be
compliant with the Paris goals."[38]<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatenexus.org/climate-change-news/methane-surge/">https://climatenexus.org/climate-change-news/methane-surge/</a><br>
- - -<br>
<b>Atmospheric methane has reached a new record high according to
the annual estimate posted today by </b><b><br>
</b><b>@NOAA_ESRL</b><br>
This year's jump is the 3rd biggest going back 20 years, extending
a recent troubling surge in methane - a potent greenhouse gas.
Background here:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatenexus.org/climate-change-news/methane-surge/">https://climatenexus.org/climate-change-news/methane-surge/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://twitter.com/HunterCutting/status/1247272715519586305">https://twitter.com/HunterCutting/status/1247272715519586305</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Trend lines]<br>
<b>The First Arctic Blue Ocean Event: What Computer Simulations and
Statistical Trend Analysis Tells Us</b><br>
Apr 6, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
In this video and the next, I continue my examination of Arctic sea
ice data which gives us a clear picture of its present state and
clearly shows the relentless downward trends in extent, thickness,
and volume that allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about
when it will vanish in a Blue Ocean Event (BOE). It is just a matter
of time before the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking
about? I give my own educated opinion (guess), and draw on some
recent peer-reviewed scientific papers that attempt narrow down the
timing of the first BOE, from both computer modelling simulations
and statistical trend analysis.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/U82e8XF-5Lo?t=57">https://youtu.be/U82e8XF-5Lo?t=57</a><br>
- - -<br>
[Data sources]<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-figures/">https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-figures/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/">https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1247331277281218560?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1247331277281218560?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet</a><br>
- - <br>
[predictions of melting Arctic Ocean]<br>
<b>Arctic Blue Ocean Event: Timing Gleamed from Statistical Trend
Analysis and Computer Simulations</b><br>
Apr 6, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
In this video and the next, I continue my examination of Arctic sea
ice data which gives us a clear picture of its present state and
clearly shows the relentless downward trends in extent, thickness,
and volume that allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about
when it will vanish in a Blue Ocean Event (BOE). It is just a matter
of time before the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking
about? I give my own educated opinion (guess), and draw on some
recent peer-reviewed scientific papers that attempt to narrow down
the timing of the first BOE, from both computer modelling
simulations and statistical trend analysis.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCEawfpDoD0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCEawfpDoD0</a><br>
- -<br>
[Data display sources]<br>
<b>Predicting the Future of Arctic Ice</b><br>
New study suggests climate models may underestimate rate of melting<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/arctic-ice-study">https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/arctic-ice-study</a><br>
- - -<br>
<b>What Do Global Climate Models Tell Us about Future Arctic Sea Ice
Coverage Changes?</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/8/1/15">https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/8/1/15</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Opinion]<br>
<b>Japan's woeful climate plan amounts to science denial</b><br>
03/04/2020<br>
Comment: Japan reiterates past pledges for 2030 rather than mapping
out a radical overhaul needed by the world's fifth largest
greenhouse gas emitter.<br>
By Shekhar Deepak Singh<br>
<br>
Japan recently submitted a 'new' climate action plan largely
reiterating its old targets for 2030.<br>
<br>
This is not just woefully inadequate for meeting larger climate
goals, it also negates science and sets a bad precedent, especially
as Covid-19 engulfs the planet.<br>
<br>
Already, the role of the leading emitters such as the US have made
the goals of Paris Agreement more turbid.<br>
<br>
And Japan's plan issued on 30 March, known as a Nationally
Determined Contribution (NDC), further muddies the issue. The fight
to address climate change has never been more serious, even though
the 26th annual UN climate summit – Cop26 – has been postponed in
the wake of global pandemic.<br>
<br>
The growth of greenhouse gas emissions over the past years has
wreaked havoc across the world in the form of extreme weather events
such as floods, forest fires, heatwaves and droughts.<br>
<br>
Still, the world continues to exorbitantly emit greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere with China, the US, India, Russia and Japan
accounting for 62% of all emissions in 2018.<br>
<br>
The per-capita carbon emissions show the skewed divisions between
advanced industrial societies and the developing world, mandating an
aggressive role for industrial societies in line with their
historical responsibility in creating climate change...<br>
- - <br>
During the Kyoto Protocol regime, Japan had a target of a 6%
reduction from 1990 levels in the first commitment period of the
Kyoto Protocol between 2008-2012.<br>
<br>
However, rather than aiming for real emission cuts, Japan relied on
offsets and buying credits from other countries.<br>
<br>
Measures such as energy efficiency, Cool Plan for halving emissions
by 2050 (without a base year) and coal tax have been touted as weak
and highly insufficient.<br>
<br>
Often in climate negotiations, Japan has worked closely with the
biggest historical polluter – the United States – in common stances
such as resisting ambition, pushing for "clean coal" and related
technologies and refusing to fulfil finance and technology transfer
to developing countries.<br>
<br>
The Japan-United States Strategic Energy Partnership (JUSEP) in 2017
for promoting coal and controversial nuclear technologies in the
Southeast Asian region is one such example. Applauded inititally, it
did not translate into real climate actions.<br>
<br>
The post-Fukushima changed the Japanese energy dimensions
drastically.<br>
<br>
From 2000-2010, the Japanese solar photo-voltaic (PV) industry
became uncompetitive with foreign rivals.<br>
<br>
After the Senkaku Island dispute (2010) with China, the import
restrictions of rare earth elements (like neodymium, indium,
praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) further dented the solar
programme.<br>
<br>
This was worsened by poor oversight to see the effects of major
solar programmes outside Japan's innovations system. Its wind
programme did not take off largely due to stringent environmental
and technical norms regarding seismic zones.<br>
<br>
Rather than focusing on restructuring its solar industry, Japan has
opted for an easier option and switched to coal power in a big way.<br>
<br>
It has more than 90 coal plants and plans to operate 22 additional
new plants. It relies on coal for more than a third of its power
generation needs, resulting in an upward increase in carbon
emissions...<br>
- - -<br>
The coronavirus and economic slowdowns should be no excuse for
climate inaction.<br>
<br>
The world cannot afford to passively watch rich emitters'
shenanigans. The (non) actions of climate rogues need to be called
out unanimously and to raise climate ambition is no longer a matter
of choice.<br>
<br>
Dr Shekhar Deepak Singh is a post-doctoral researcher at the Chinese
University of Hong Kong specialising on issues of Energy Policy,
Environment and Sustainable Development. Views expressed are
personal.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/03/japans-woeful-climate-plan-amounts-science-denial/">https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/03/japans-woeful-climate-plan-amounts-science-denial/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[global climate refugees]<br>
<b>As Himalayas Warm, Nepal's Climate Migrants Struggle to Survive</b><br>
Pushed out of their village by a drought and lack of food, a group
of Nepalis are fighting to amplify the voices of those forced to
relocate by the planet's warming.<br>
By Bhadra Sharma and Kai Schultz<br>
April 5, 2020<br>
DHYE, Nepal -- High in the Himalayas, on a rugged plateau dotted
with empty mud huts, an exodus has begun.<br>
<br>
In the village of Dhye, crops are stubby, dead stalks. Water is
scarce. The only school closed a few years ago. With dwindling food,
most families have packed their belongings and left, driven out by a
faceless, man-made enemy.<br>
<br>
They are Nepal's climate-change migrants, and there will be more.<br>
<br>
"I love this village," said Sonam Chhiring Gurung, 76, one of the
final holdouts, "but I can't survive here much longer."<br>
<br>
Climate change is remaking the Himalayan region, putting at risk
millions of South Asians who depend on its water resources and
pushing mountain dwellers in northern Nepal, home to the world's
highest peaks, to build new settlements at lower altitudes.<br>
Glacial melt has accelerated in the 1,500-mile-long Himalayas. Land
once used for growing vegetables has become barren. Yak herders say
they are struggling to find grazing patches for their animals.
Scientists have found that rising temperatures could spread malaria
and dengue to new areas of the Himalayas, where mosquitoes have
started to appear in the highlands.<br>
Around the world, tens of millions of people have already been
displaced as a result of a warming planet. Researchers estimate that
the number of climate-change migrants -- those fleeing natural
disasters, droughts or other calamities -- could reach a billion by
the end of the century.<br>
<br>
South Asians are among the most vulnerable. Last year, after an
unusually weak monsoon, water nearly ran out in Chennai, one of
India's biggest cities. In Bangladesh, up to 18 million people face
displacement by 2050 from sea rise alone, according to the
Environmental Justice Foundation. Extreme heat is making people
sicker and poorer, and could sharply diminish the living standards
of 800 million people in the region if goals for mitigating climate
change are not met.<br>
<br>
Warmer Himalayas could have disastrous consequences for the
subcontinent.<br>
<br>
Last year, in one of the most complete studies on mountain warming,
scientists warned that even if the world's most ambitious climate
change targets were met, at least one-third of Himalayan glaciers
would melt by the end of the century...<br>
- - -<br>
"Nepal is ground zero for the impacts of climate change," she said.
"As a country with one of the most fragile ecosystems -- the
Himalayas -- and an economy that is heavily reliant on favorable
climate conditions, Nepal is probably one of the most exposed."<br>
<br>
Glimpses of a warmer future are everywhere...<br>
- - -<br>
When a government conservation group backed away from its promise of
providing apple seedlings for Dhye Khola, Mr. Gurung said he marched
into its office and threatened to burn it down. He said the group
eventually relented and sent about 275 seedlings.<br>
<br>
"To those who say climate change is fake and criticize us for
occupying public land, I ask them to come visit our village," Mr.
Gurung said. "I am a victim of climate change."...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/asia/nepal-himalayas-glacier-climate.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/asia/nepal-himalayas-glacier-climate.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Opinion from Business Insider]<br>
<b>Climate change is only going to make health crises like
coronavirus more frequent and worse</b><br>
Ibrahim AlHusseini, Opinion Contributor<br>
- Climate change is only going to make pandemics like coronavirus
more frequent.<br>
- Climate change is also going to cause a slew of other health
issues for people around the world.<br>
- In order to combat these devastating effects, we need to address
climate change.<br>
- Ibrahim AlHusseini is the founder and CEO of FullCycle, an
investment firm focused on addressing the climate crisis.<br>
- - <br>
These viruses do not disappear along with the habitats and animals
they once inhabited; they tend to search for a new host – which all
too often becomes us. As Eric Roston noted in a recent Bloomberg
article, "unlike measles or polio, there is no vaccine for ecosystem
destruction."<br>
<br>
The good news is that these scenarios are by no means inevitable.
But to avoid them, we need our elected leaders to inform the public
about the connection between pandemics like COVID-19, and climate
change. Because climate change is a problem we can solve, but only
if we show the kind of international energy and cooperation that we
are beginning to see in the fight against coronavirus.<br>
As we head into the fall election in the US, and President Trump and
former Vice President Biden debate their plans to confront this
pandemic and the next one, both men would benefit from offering
concrete steps to address the climate crisis. And businesses, even
those who depend on fossil fuels, need to realize that the health of
their customers and employees will suffer if they keep opposing
climate-friendly policies and candidates.<br>
<br>
We no longer need vague promises from our leaders: we need decisive
action. Unless that happens, COVID-19 could be a harbinger of things
to come.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-making-health-crises-like-coronavirus-frequent-worse-2020-4">https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-making-health-crises-like-coronavirus-frequent-worse-2020-4</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
[Opinion Letters to the NYTimes]<br>
LETTERS<br>
<b>Does Coronavirus Bring a New Perspective on Climate Change?</b><br>
Readers discuss the effect of the virus on the environment going
forward.<br>
April 5, 2020<br>
To the Editor:<br>
<br>
Re "What the Pandemic Means for Climate Change," by Meehan Crist
(Sunday Review, March 29):<br>
<br>
In Los Angeles, New York, Manila and Milan, the skies clear as air
pollution drops. In Venice, the canal water is clear enough to see
fish, and dolphins are returning. What would the world be like if we
decided to pursue this trend?<br>
<br>
Less asthma and cancer, fewer lung and heart diseases, fewer deaths.
More beauty in our lives. A slowing of global emissions.<br>
<br>
Coronavirus is catastrophic, but it opens a new path. What if the
frantic rush hours, relentless production of often unneeded or
quickly obsolete items, and nonstop consumer spending were to calm?
If we invested in renewable energy, electric cars and public
transportation, and stopped funding fossil fuels, would we create
good jobs and improve health for ourselves and the planet?<br>
<br>
Before, it was hard to envision such a change, but now we can see
glimpses of what it might offer. Any new stimulus bill in the United
States should include funds for a transition to a more sustainable
world. We owe it to our children and grandchildren.<br>
Mary Makofske<br>
Warwick, N.Y.<br>
- - -<br>
To the Editor:<br>
Coronavirus: The dominance of this topic in all media is
understandable, given the obvious global impact and need for
immediate response. It is equally understandable that climate change
has never generated this kind of urgency.<br>
<br>
Human beings are just not wired to focus on long-term, slow-motion
disasters, no matter how severe, especially when there are
commercial interests involved that obscure the seriousness. It is
not inevitable that the cleaner air and water we are witnessing have
to be temporary and only associated with economic meltdown.<br>
<br>
If the prospect of future heat waves, floods and extreme storms is
not grabbing you, what about addressing millions of deaths every
year that are happening right now because of particulate air
pollution?<br>
<br>
Carbon-pricing and cash-back legislation is consistent with a
climate change stimulus package that builds a carbon-neutral
society. Meehan Crist is wisely calling for a human-centered economy
we can live with forever, not a finance-centered, consumer-driven
one that we live and die for.<br>
<br>
Gary M. Stewart<br>
Laguna Beach, Calif.<br>
The writer is an internist.<br>
- - -<br>
To the Editor:<br>
Paul Krugman's explanation of the connection between coronavirus
denialism and climate denialism was spot on (column, nytimes.com,
March 28). But the analogy is even deeper than he said.<br>
<br>
Like climate change, a pandemic is outside the experience of today's
population. Like climate change, a pandemic develops gradually, with
small effects at first. Like climate change, a pandemic has effects
that must be predicted using scientific concepts that many people do
not understand.<br>
<br>
Like climate change, a pandemic has effects that are predictable in
general but somewhat uncertain in detail. Like climate change, a
pandemic must be controlled by decisive action taken long before the
worst effects are felt, with immediate pain to vested economic
interests.<br>
<br>
The time scales are different, but the traits are similar. Our
policymakers have not been good at making costly changes today to
avoid dramatic harms in the future.<br>
<br>
Steve C. Gold<br>
Caldwell, N.J.<br>
The writer teaches environmental law at Rutgers.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opinion/letters/coronavirus-climate.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opinion/letters/coronavirus-climate.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[more opinion from Grist]<br>
<b>Be prepared: Key lessons from the coronavirus pandemic and
climate change</b><br>
By Nathanael Johnson on Apr 3, 2020<br>
It's no secret that President Donald Trump has impeded efforts to
stop the spread of the coronavirus across the country. He fired the
National Security Council's pandemic response team in 2018. He lied
about his shifting stances after first downplaying the threat,
ad-libbed falsehoods about invoking the Defense Production Act to
produce masks, and garbled messages from his own public health
experts. He said that only liberal snowflakes were concerned about
the virus, labelling it "their new hoax," ginned up to bring him
down. His allies on TV repeated those sentiments, convincing many
Republicans that the coronavirus was an overblown threat. And he
declined to mobilize the government's disaster response experts.<br>
- - <br>
"I've been in this adaptation space for a while, and it tends to be
framed in terms of additional costs only," she said. In other words,
people should consider what happens after disasters hit, the costs
of responding to emergencies, rebuilding, and loss of life.<br>
<br>
President Barack Obama made an executive order to support climate
resilience efforts in 2009. Trump revoked it in 2017, on the grounds
that it made the country "less competitive" because it asked federal
agencies to reduce greenhouse gasses and plan ahead. In the
meantime, Chan said, local governments are leading the way.<br>
<br>
"Communities from Vermont to Illinois and Colorado have rebuilt
roads and other infrastructure in the aftermath of major storms and
floods to better withstand future climate risks," she said.
"Counties in Southeast Florida have established a coordinated
planning effort to adapt to sea level rise. Low-lying states like
Delaware and Maryland now require state-funded construction projects
to be designed to accommodate future sea level rise and increased
flooding."<br>
<br>
The most terrifying projections about what hell climate change will
bring are often based on forecasts that assume governments refuse to
adapt to a wetter, warmer world. But as we can see cleary during
this pandemic, the argument for preparation seems blindingly obvious
once disaster strikes. So why wait?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://grist.org/climate/be-prepared-key-lessons-from-the-pandemic-and-climate-change/">https://grist.org/climate/be-prepared-key-lessons-from-the-pandemic-and-climate-change/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
April 6, 2000 </b></font><br>
Predicting the controversies that would define the George W. Bush
administration, New York Times columnist Bob Herbert observes, "Mr.
Bush's relationship to the environment is roughly that of a doctor
to a patient -- when the doctor's name is Kevorkian."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/06/opinion/in-america-bush-goes-green.html?pagewanted=print">http://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/06/opinion/in-america-bush-goes-green.html?pagewanted=print</a>
<br>
<br>
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