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<i><font size="+1"><b>April 10, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[Audio podcast]<br>
<b>HEATED Ep 3: COVID-19 is the dress rehearsal for the climate
apocalypse</b><br>
Strap in because environmental justice organizer Anthony
Rogers-Wright brings the heat. In his role as the policy coordinator
for the Climate Justice Alliance, Anthony advocates for a huge
network of indigenous, urban black, and low-income communities on
the front lines of climate change who all share one thing in common:
they are all disproportionately harmed by the effects of climate
change and pollution. As Anthony makes abundantly clear, the reality
that we have to face right now is that we will not be equal in our
suffering when it comes to climate change. Just as we will not be
equal in our suffering when it comes to coronavirus. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://podbay.fm/podcast/1439735906/e/1586329260">https://podbay.fm/podcast/1439735906/e/1586329260</a><br>
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[The Journal Nature]<br>
<b>The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate
change</b><br>
Christopher H. Trisos, Cory Merow & Alex L. Pigot <br>
Nature (2020 )<br>
Abstract<br>
<blockquote>As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to
biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections
indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global
biodiversity is on the horizon. However, our understanding of when
and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity
will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically
focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual
projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation
across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial
species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially
dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of
ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be
abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the
exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their
realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a
high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway
(RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in
tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher
latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2C, less than
2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt
exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species;
however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming,
threatening 15% of assemblages at 4C, with similar levels of risk
in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the
impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from
climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when
and where these events may occur.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2189-9">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2189-9</a><br>
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[opinion in Scientific American]<br>
<b>Climate Change and Infectious Diseases</b><br>
It isn't making COVID-19 worse than it would otherwise have
been--but we can't say the same for malaria, dengue and other
illnesses<br>
By Arthur Wyns on April 9, 2020<br>
<br>
Is there a link between climate change and COCID-19, and should we
be worried about other infectious diseases?<br>
<br>
We know climate change is having widespread impacts on our health,
including by worsening illnesses ranging from seasonal allergies to
heart and lung disease. But what do we know about how climate change
affects infectious diseases? Here are some answers.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Do weather and climate influence the risk of COVID-19?</b><br>
<br>
No. At the moment there is no scientific evidence to believe that
either weather or climate have a particularly strong influence on
the transmission of the COVID-19 disease, since the new disease
currently also spreads in hot and humid climates. There is also no
evidencethat climate change made the emergence or transmission of
COVID-19 more likely. Popular myths around COVID-19, such as that
the novel coronavirus will be killed by hot or cold weather have
also all been debunked.<br>
<br>
COVID-19 is mainly transmitted directly from person to person
through close contact, or through respiratory droplets produced when
an infected person coughs, sneezes or exhales. People can catch the
disease if they breathe in those droplets, or by touching objects or
surfaces where infected droplets have landed, then touching their
eyes, nose or mouth.<br>
<br>
While temperature and humidity may influence how long the virus
survives outside of the human body, this effect is likely to be many
degrees smaller compared to the degree of contact between people.
Washing hands and reducing physical contact are therefore essential
to breaking the chain of transmission, in all locations, seasons and
climates.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Will climate change make the effects of COVID-19 worse?</b><br>
<br>
Even though climate change did not cause the emergence of COVID-19,
it could indirectly make the effects of a current or future pandemic
worse. This is because it undermines the environmental conditions we
need for good health--access to water, clean air, food and
shelter--and places additional stress on health systems.<br>
<br>
For example, climate change is causing widespread drought and
desertification in much of the world, threatening the availability
of water for consumption, food production, personal hygiene, and
medical care, including for infectious disease. In drought-prone
areas, medical facilities with water shortages will be ill-equipped
to deal with the outbreak. Similarly, COVID-19 outbreaks will
cripple already weakened health systems in regions that have seen an
increase in the frequency and severity of climate-induced extreme
weather events, such as Haiti or Mozambique.<br>
<br>
For health systems already weakened by climate-related health
impacts, flattening the curve of infections to avoid overwhelming
the healthcare system becomes much more challenging.<br>
<br>
<b>What about other infectious diseases?</b><br>
<br>
We do know that infections that are transmitted through water,
through food, or by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks, are highly
sensitive to weather and climate conditions. The warmer, wetter and
more variable conditions brought by climate change are therefore
making it easier to transmit diseases such as malaria, dengue fever,
chikungunya, yellow fever, Zika virus, West Nile virus and Lyme
disease in many parts of the world.<br>
<br>
The Lancet Countdown, a scientific collaboration between 35
institutions, found that the climate suitability for disease
transmission has already increased for diseases including dengue,
malaria and cholera.<br>
<br>
As an example, a changing climate is aggravating the negative health
impacts of malaria by broadening the range of the Anopheles
mosquito, the vector that spreads it. It also lengthens the season
in which mosquitos reproduce and transmit the disease, thereby
increasing the number of people at risk. A similar escalation takes
place for diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever
and Zika, which are spread by Aedes mosquitos.<br>
<br>
Lyme disease, which is spread by ticks, is also increasing its range
and seasonality in many parts of North America and Europe, while
waterborne cholera and cryptosporidiosis are increasing with more
frequent droughts and flooding.<br>
<br>
What can the global response to COVID-19 teach us about our response
to climate change?<br>
<br>
Both climate change and COVID-19 are public health threats, although
they are playing out across vastly different timescales. Both
require early action to save lives, as well as adequate health
systems that provide equitable access to the most vulnerable in
society.<br>
<br>
Just as with COVID-19, how well communities can cope with infectious
diseases and other health impacts that are intensified by climate
change ultimately depends on the underlying strength and resilience
of the health system, whether it ensures protection for the most
vulnerable in society, and the extent to which it protects the
public from both short and long-term health threats.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/climate-change-and-infectious-diseases/">https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/climate-change-and-infectious-diseases/</a><br>
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<br>
[Nature and the IPCC report]<br>
<b>Can the world's most influential climate report carry on?</b><br>
For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, COVID-19 has
forced a new way of doing business.<br>
Jeff Tollefson<br>
With science around the world grinding to a halt as a result of
efforts to contain the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is struggling to
keep the world's next big global-warming report on track.<br>
<br>
Hundreds of scientists are working with the international panel to
assess the science of climate change as well as the efforts to curb
greenhouse-gas emissions and prepare for inevitable impacts. The
next big report -- the IPCC's first in about seven years -- is due
out next year, and is intended to guide government actions. But that
timeline is already under threat due to government lockdowns, travel
bans and university closures.<br>
<br>
Here, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, a climatologist at the Climate and
Environmental Sciences Laboratory in Gif-sur-Yvette, France and
co-chair of the working group that assesses the physical science of
climate change, discusses with Nature how the scientists involved
are dealing with the crisis. Regardless of the final schedule and
acknowledging the inevitable delays ahead, Masson-Delmotte says she
intends to press on with her work. "We want to have a light touch
and avoid adding any burden on the shoulders of people who are
facing multiple challenges," she says.<br>
<br>
How is the IPCC adapting to problems posed by COVID-19? What is the
strategy?<br>
I think there are two dimensions. The first one is to alleviate the
stress on everybody contributing to the work of the IPCC. The second
is to develop ways to maintain the highest-quality standards for our
reports. The two goals are contradictory, in a way.<br>
<br>
We have run a survey of the climate-science community and received
351 responses from all continents (see 'How are climate scientists
coping?'). Ninety-five percent say that measures in place to address
the coronavirus situation are impacting on their work. Many are not
able to continue working in the laboratory or do field work. Most
meetings are postponed or cancelled. Researchers are dealing with a
transition to online teaching and extra administrative issues. They
feel committed, but it's such a stress at the moment.<br>
<br>
This month's meeting of the IPCC working group on climate-change
mitigation will now take place online. Can the IPCC work virtually?<br>
We will all learn from this experience. For years we have faced a
number of challenges in making our physical meetings more
participatory and inclusive. Now we need to work to make online
meetings as inclusive and as participatory as possible.<br>
<br>
We cannot ask people to spend 8 hours in an online meeting when it's
the middle of the night on one part of the globe, so we need to make
the best use of time when people are connected. It's about unpacking
what has to be done during the meeting, and structuring a process
that continues in the following weeks. We have some experience with
this, but not at the level of what we need.<br>
<br>
What about the IPCC plenary session scheduled to begin in Kenya at
the end of September?<br>
From my perspective, I don't think a plenary session can easily take
place remotely. For the special report on 1.5C last year, it was
like 100 hours in a single week, working around the clock with
huddles and contact groups. There are long, detailed discussions
between authors and delegates from governments. It's possible, but
it can only work if all government delegates and authors have
high-quality internet access. And that's not yet the case,
especially in Africa.<br>
<br>
How has the crisis affected your efforts to promote diversity and
broaden participation within the IPCC?<br>
This crisis is revealing and exacerbating all sorts of inequalities.
It's an additional burden for scientists with children, and
especially the mothers. It's also exacerbating the challenges of
working remotely for those in the developing world.<br>
<br>
But I think the strongest pressure is on early-career scientists and
students. They miss discussion, feedback and teamwork. They don't
have established networks. Their financial situation is less secure.
PhD students are concerned about graduating and having no job, and
post-docs depend on grants from projects that have been delayed. The
level of stress is unbelievable.<br>
<br>
Given the potential scale of the economic, social and political
changes ahead due to COVID-19, will the assessment itself need to be
updated?<br>
We have not yet fully touched on that in our discussions, but the
elephant in the room is the relevance of the IPCC report to the
current situation. For instance, there might be insights with the
economic slowdown leading to reductions in emissions of short-lived
climate forcers [such as methane, nitrogen dioxide and black
carbon]. There is research taking place, but if it is to be part of
the assessment we need to have timely publications.<br>
<br>
There are cut-off dates for the science that can be included in the
climate assessment. Are you worried about scientists getting their
work published in time?<br>
Any delay to the IPCC schedule would involve an extension of cut-off
dates, giving authors the opportunity to assess very carefully new
literature coming out in the pandemic context.<br>
<br>
Do you worry about the postponement of the United Nations climate
and biodiversity conferences to 2021?<br>
No, they could never have taken place. We need to wait until
something like an affordable vaccination is available to get back to
normal. I think the postponement also gives more time for people to
think very carefully about the type of society we want to build
together.<br>
<br>
We are trying to keep up the momentum. When we keep these meetings
going, I think we create a sort of work bubble where people are
comfortable, where they can escape the ambient stress and focus on
something we've been working so hard for. So, it's also helpful, in
a way, to continue our work.<br>
<br>
Are there lessons we can learn from the COVID-19 crisis?<br>
I really hope that the lessons learnt from the lack of strategic
planning for this pandemic will push governments and the general
public to consider how to better address other, slow-onset crises.<br>
<br>
I know it's creating a lot of anxiety, but it's also the right time
to consider, very seriously, solidarity among generations -- not
just protecting those who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus
today, but also protecting the young generations. What will be the
legacy of our actions today? That's the key issue related to climate
change and biodiversity.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01047-8">https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01047-8</a><br>
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[Denial video 2:18]<br>
<b>Cranky Uncle video: FLICC</b><br>
Apr 8, 2020<br>
John Cook<br>
An introduction to the five techniques of science denial: Fake
experts, Logical fallacies, Impossible expectations, Cherry picking,
and Conspiracy theories (FLICC).<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNs2YMblqwU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNs2YMblqwU</a><br>
<br>
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[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
April 10, 2007 </b></font><br>
In a debate with Senator John Kerry in Washington, DC, Newt Gingrich
acknowledges that climate change is real and largely caused by human
activity, though he insists that regulatory solutions are not needed
to stem emissions. By 2009, Gingrich would once again suggest that
the basic science of human-caused climate change was in dispute.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/197538-1">http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/197538-1</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/02/19/gingrich-didnt-always-take-issue-with-john-kerr/198125">https://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/02/19/gingrich-didnt-always-take-issue-with-john-kerr/198125</a>
<br>
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