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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>April 13, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[Serious, with direct fix]<br>
<b>Methane Levels Reach an All-Time High</b><br>
New NOAA analysis highlights an alarming trend; experts call for
curbing pollution from oil and gas wells<br>
By Jeremy Deaton, Nexus Media on April 12, 2020<br>
A preliminary estimate from NOAA finds that levels of atmospheric
methane, a potent heat-trapping gas, have hit an all-time high.<br>
<br>
Methane is roughly 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, and
while it stays in the atmosphere for only around a decade, as
opposed to centuries, like CO2, its continued rise poses a major
challenge to international climate goals.<br>
<br>
"Here we are. It's 2020, and it's not only not dropping. It's not
level. In fact, it's one of the fastest growth rates we've seen in
the last 20 years," said Drew Shindell, a climate scientist at Duke
University.<br>
To gauge methane levels, scientists regularly gathered samples of
air from dozens of sites around the world and analyzed them at
NOAA's Global Monitoring Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. By
comparing measurements, they were able to determine the global
average. In 2019, the concentration of atmospheric methane reached
nearly 1875 parts per billion, the highest level since
record-keeping began in 1983.<br>
<br>
Even more troubling, 2019 saw the second-largest single-year leap in
two decades. However, this figure may change, as preliminary
estimates have trended high, said Ed Dlugokencky, a research chemist
at NOAA. The final numbers will likely be unveiled in November after
a more detailed analysis.<br>
<br>
"We're still waiting to see what the final number is going to be,
and it's going to be many months before we know that," Dlugokencky
said. "But the fact that methane is increasing means it's further
contributing to climate change."<br>
<br>
Methane emissions primarily come from natural sources, like
wetlands, and manmade sources, like farms and oil and gas wells. In
wetlands, microbes excrete methane, an issue that humans can do
little about. On farms, cows and sheep belch methane--a problem that
people can address by raising fewer livestock.<br>
<br>
"Eat less beef and less dairy. That's the most straightforward
thing," Shindell said. "For the sake of our own health, we should be
doing that anyway."<br>
<br>
The easiest way to stem methane pollution, however, is to limit its
release from oil and gas drilling sites, he said. Natural gas is
mostly methane, and it is prone to leaking from wells. There are
essentially two ways to deal with this problem. The first is to burn
the natural gas that seeps out, which turns the methane into carbon
dioxide. The second is to plug the leaks.<br>
<br>
Companies can install recovery equipment that allows them to collect
the natural gas that would otherwise seep out. They can then sell
this gas, helping to offset the cost of the equipment. By one
estimate, oil and gas firms could cut methane pollution by 45
percent at no net cost.<br>
<br>
Despite this, many companies are reluctant to pay for recovery
equipment. Firms will instead spend their limited capital on a new
drilling site, for instance, which will yield a greater return on
investment, Shindell said, though practices vary.<br>
<br>
Major players--including Chevron, Exxon Mobil, BP and Shell--are
taking steps to cap methane pollution, in part, to shore up their
public image. However, smaller firms operating on thinner profit
margins have less incentive to invest in recovery equipment. And the
coronavirus could make the problem worse, as companies facing
declining revenues could pay less attention to leaks. For this
reason, advocates have called for greater regulation of the oil and
gas sector.<br>
<br>
"I think that has taken on urgency because in recent years we have
witnessed a surge in production of oil and natural gas," said
Devashree Saha, a policy analyst at the World Resources Institute.
"Increasing the oversight and regulation of oil and gas production
is the only way to go right now."<br>
<br>
Methane levels were more or less flat from the late 1990s to the
early 2000s. They began to rise after 2006 thanks, at least in part,
to more oil and gas drilling. Their recent uptick threatens the
goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, as scientists had assumed that
methane concentrations would stay level and then drop off when they
projected how countries would meet their climate targets. Experts
say that curbing methane emissions is needed to limit warming in the
short term, buying humanity much needed time to adapt to climate
change.<br>
<br>
"You see the benefits in the first decade or two that you make cuts.
You see fewer people dying from heat waves. You see less powerful
storms and all of the stuff that comes from climate change,"
Shindell said. "As long as we're still using fossil fuels, we should
at least not be leaking out lots and lots of methane."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/methane-levels-reach-an-all-time-high/">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/methane-levels-reach-an-all-time-high/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Notice clear skies]<br>
<b>Coronavirus: plane-free skies spur research into warming impact
of aviation</b><br>
Published on 09/04/2020, <br>
As the Covid-19 pandemic response hits air traffic, scientists seize
the opportunity to study how planes' contrails trap heat in the
atmosphere<br>
By Alister Doyle<br>
Mass groundings of flights caused by the coronavirus are giving
scientists a rare chance to study plane-free skies and pin down how
far aviation stokes global warming.<br>
<br>
In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, air traffic has slumped in a
manner not seen since the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks on the
United States in 2001.<br>
<br>
Scientists with Nasa and European research groups hope to use clear
skies to narrow down massive uncertainties about the warming effect
of condensation trails – the wispy white lines that criss-cross the
skies in the wake of jets engines.<br>
<br>
Understanding planes' impact on the climate is urgent because
commercial aviation generates about 2% of global carbon emissions
and rising, mainly from burning jet fuel. Taking into account the
impact of cloud formation in the upper atmosphere, however, could
make the sector's responsibility for human-caused global warming as
high as 4% or 5%.<br>
<br>
"It is welcome that we can have an experiment with the Earth," said
Ulrike Burkhardt, of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the
German Aerospace Center (DLR). "But it's not the way we would want
to design it."<br>
<br>
Coronavirus has killed almost 90,000 people. Global demand for air
travel is down 70% compared to last year and millions of jobs are at
risk, according to the International Air Transport Association
(Iata), which represents airlines.<br>
<br>
Researchers will use satellites and measurements by planes to study
how clouds form naturally when thousands of flights are grounded,
and contrast it with data from pre-coronavirus conditions of crowded
skies. In the long term, that could help governments set better
policies.<br>
<br>
Airlines urge UN body to ease climate goals for 2020s as traffic
collapses<br>
<br>
Under social distancing guidance to prevent the spread of Covid-19,
however, Burkhardt said it was difficult to assemble teams of
technicians to install sensors on planes and find pilots to fly
them.<br>
<br>
"The air traffic system has not been diminished to the current
levels since the days following 9/11," said Patrick Minnis of Nasa
Langley Research Center, who is joining a research effort to study
high-altitude clouds.<br>
<br>
"Flight groundings at the scales initiated in response to the
coronavirus pandemic are a significant opportunity to better
quantify the impact of air traffic on cloud cover via contrail
formation."<br>
<br>
The new research builds on studies after the 9/11 suicide hijackings
in the US grounded flights for a few days. One study, for instance,
found that the plane-free skies had an impact on temperature
variations in the United States, but some researchers say the
findings might have been caused by natural variations.<br>
<br>
Minnis and colleagues are trying to determine whether contrails
increase the total amount of clouds in the sky, or suck up moisture
that might have allowed clouds to form elsewhere. That would help to
establish whether contrails and cloudiness linked to aviation had an
overall warming or cooling effect on the planet.<br>
<br>
Most low clouds such as cumulus are made up of tiny water droplets
and reflect sunlight back into space from their white tops. That
helps to keep the planet cool.<br>
<br>
By contrast, icy, high-altitude clouds formed by contrails have an
overall warming effect because they trap more heat escaping from the
Earth's surface than they reflect back into space.<br>
<br>
Coronavirus lockdown gives a boost to citizen science projects<br>
<br>
Contrails typically form at 8-13 kms above the Earth, depending on
factors including temperature and moisture. They are less likely in
tropical regions than the higher latitudes of Beijing, New York or
London.<br>
<br>
Between 2013 and 2019, aviation sector emissions grew from 733
million tonnes to 915 million tonnes of CO2, according to Iata.<br>
<br>
Piers Forster, professor of Physical Climate Change at the
University of Leeds, said that the "total historic warming from
aviation is roughly twice that from its carbon dioxide emissions
alone".<br>
<br>
"The total warming effect of aviation is still small: maybe 5% of
the warming from all human activity," Forster said, factoring in
cloud formation. "But as other emissions will hopefully decline, it
is expected that aviation will be the dominant source of emissions
within the next few decades…<br>
<br>
"We are beginning to look at this. We are looking at contrails and
general high level cloudiness changes" amid coronavirus, he said.<br>
<br>
Airlines urge UN body to ease climate goals for 2020s as traffic
collapses<br>
<br>
Nations have agreed to offset the growth in carbon dioxide emissions
from 2020 under the International Civil Aviation Organization
(Icao). So far, there is no consensus to curb the overall warming
effect, partly because the impact on cloud formation is too
uncertain.<br>
<br>
At an individual level, flying is one of the most climate polluting
activities a person can undertake. Swedish teen climate activist
Greta Thunberg has famously refused to fly, sparking a debate about
the morality of air travel. There are some signs "flight shame" is
dampening demand in wealthy parts of the world.<br>
<br>
But Bernd Karcher, a colleague of Burkhardt at Germany's DLR, said
the 2020 slowdown was likely to be short-lived, in a long-term trend
of more flights. He estimated that aviation contributed 4% to
man-made global warming, with most of it from contrails rather than
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.<br>
<br>
Understanding all impacts of aviation was vital to the policy
response, Karcher said: "To meet the Paris climate goals, every
tenth of a degree of reduced increase in surface temperatures
matters."<br>
<br>
The plane-free skies could help narrow uncertainties and so help
guide longer term policies, he added. "Icao points to the need for
scientific consensus, which, so it is argued, is absent in the case
of non-CO2 cloud effects."<br>
<br>
He said that other ways to reduce non-Co2 effects could be cleaner
fuels that produce fewer contrails, re-routing flights to regions or
altitudes where contrails are less likely to form, or better
aircraft design.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-plane-free-skies-spur-research-warming-impact-aviation/">https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-plane-free-skies-spur-research-warming-impact-aviation/</a><br>
[or by not flying]<br>
<br>
<br>
[See the simple answer]<br>
<b>Are We Screwed On Climate Change?</b><br>
The answer is complicated. This comic strip explains why.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://nexusmedianews.com/are-we-screwed-on-climate-change-ab539ab98ee4">https://nexusmedianews.com/are-we-screwed-on-climate-change-ab539ab98ee4</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Now is the time to plan ahead]<br>
<b>This Pandemic Won't Save the Climate From Big Oil</b><br>
BY ADAM HANIEH<br>
Global oil prices have plummeted in the wake of the COVID-19
pandemic. But that doesn't mean the giants of the industry are
facing terminal decline: Big Oil could bounce back stronger than
ever...<br>
- -<br>
It is certain that all parts of the fossil fuel industry will face a
severe crisis over the remainder of this year and into 2021. But
what might this mean for our ecological future? Unfortunately,
unless fossil capital can be effectively challenged now, a wave of
bankruptcies in the energy sector is actually likely to accelerate
the further centralization of control by the largest oil majors.<br>
<br>
The mega-firms collectively known as "Big Oil" -- Exxon, Shell, BP,
and a handful of others -- are much better positioned to survive
this crisis than smaller producers. They tend to be vertically
integrated firms: in other words, they are active across the entire
energy value chain, including refining, and thus will have some of
their losses in crude production offset by the lower cost of fuel
inputs for their downstream operations. As truly global firms, they
have reserves and assets distributed across the world, not solely in
the higher-cost shale fields of the United States. Financially,
these firms also tend to have much deeper pockets, and their
prospects are deeply entwined with broader financial markets
(including pension funds). In the UK, for example, BP and Shell
account for a remarkable one-fifth of all FTSE dividends.<br>
<br>
This scenario is precisely the one that leading financial firms are
expecting to see unfold over the next twelve to eighteen months.
Goldman Sachs, for example, noted recently that while the current
crisis will undoubtedly "be a game changer for the industry," the
probable outcome is that the largest firms will consolidate the best
assets and shed the worst: "When the industry emerges from this
downturn, there will be fewer companies of higher asset quality."<br>
<br>
Interindustry disputes over state support to the ailing shale
industry in the United States also reflect this possible outcome.
Here, as Justin Mikulka has meticulously documented, large oil
majors such as Exxon have sought to hasten the collapse of smaller
producers and have vigorously opposed any state support to the shale
industry.<br>
<br>
Mikulka cites the CEO of one shale firm, Pioneer Natural Resources,
who told CNBC that efforts to engage the Trump administration in
support of shale producers were not going well: "We've had
opposition from Exxon who controls API [American Petroleum
Institute] and the TXOGA [Texas Oil and Gas Association] . . . they
prefer all the independents to go bankrupt and pick up the scraps."<br>
<br>
<b>Exploiting the Crisis</b><br>
For this reason, the current moment presents a real danger for
climate justice campaigns. In the United States, for example, the
Trump administration has agreed to loosen environmental regulations
for power plants, factories, and other industrial facilities. This
will essentially mean that these polluters are allowed to
"self-monitor" their own pollution levels, according to a recent
report in the New York Times.<br>
<br>
The Environmental Protection Agency has rolled out this new policy
as part of its plan for addressing the COVID-19 crisis. Tellingly,
however, it was also one of the key demands raised by the American
Petroleum Institute in a letter sent by the Big Oil lobbyists to the
Trump administration on March 20. It is not just the fossil fuel
industry that is attempting to use this crisis to roll back
environmental regulations: large banks and financial firms are also
pushing for a relaxation on climate change reporting requirements,
and a delay to climate change "stress tests."<br>
<br>
A scenario that sees the undermining of (already inadequate)
environmental regulations and a wave of industry consolidation will
ultimately place Big Oil in a stronger position to capitalize on a
post-viral world. While oil prices are today at historically low
levels, they will not remain there over the longer term. One of the
critical consequences of today's vast destruction in the demand for
oil is that most leading oil companies are announcing savage cuts to
their capital expenditure (CAPEX) on oil exploration and project
development.<br>
<br>
For the oil majors, these initial cuts have averaged around 20
percent over the last few weeks. They are even higher in the shale
industry, where one energy consultant expects a 40 percent drop in
spending over 2020. It takes considerable time and expense to
restart or bring new oil production online after projects have been
halted or oil wells shut in: the effects of today's cutbacks to
CAPEX will be felt in supply constraints for some time in the
future.<br>
<br>
This creates a strong possibility of a sharp rebound in prices as we
emerge from this crisis -- an outcome that will incentivize a
renewed wave of investment and expansion in fossil fuels globally
(much as happened through the recent history of US shale
production).<br>
<br>
<b>Global Fortunes</b><br>
How might this be reflected beyond the United States and the
fortunes of the large, globally diversified oil majors? Here, we
also need to differentiate between the more powerful oil-producing
states and other poorer oil exporters. Countries like Saudi Arabia,
the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf states will certainly
experience rising deficits and greater pressure on government
spending in a prolonged period of low oil prices.<br>
<br>
These states, however, have relatively low levels of existing debt
and can borrow quite cheaply on international markets. The Gulf's
particular class structure -- an overwhelming reliance on temporary
migrant workers that make up more than 50 percent of the region's
labor force -- also means that any sharp economic contraction can be
partially displaced through simply sending migrant workers home (as
happened in Dubai in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis). Indeed, in a
parallel to the possible strengthening of "Big Oil" through this
crisis, the Gulf states could see their position further
consolidated if assets in neighboring countries become more cheaply
available in a post-viral world.<br>
<br>
One important market here is India, where companies headquartered in
the Gulf are continuing to make significant inroads in expectation
of a boom in future energy demand. The Gulf's strategic insertion
within trade and financial networks connected to China is also
important to highlight. Crude oil and petrochemicals remain central
to these connections, and work on key projects in these sectors is
continuing throughout the current crisis. These projects include Abu
Dhabi's Ruwais Refinery, which will be the largest integrated
refinery and petrochemical plant in the world on completion.<br>
<br>
Poorer oil exporters will face much more serious problems as a
result of the current plunge in oil prices. Such countries include
Ecuador, Venezuela, and Iran -- the latter two are also contending
with the impact of savage US-imposed sanctions. States such as
Nigeria -- which depends upon oil for 57 percent of government
revenue, and over 90 percent of foreign-exchange earnings -- will
find it exceedingly difficult to meet budgetary demands. This will
have deadly consequences in the midst of the pandemic. Similarly,
for Iraq, where oil exports make up 90 percent of government
revenues and a large part of the population depends upon the public
sector for wages or pensions, it is difficult to see how the
expected shortfall in funding will be addressed.<br>
<br>
<b>Strange Bedfellows</b><br>
The problems these countries face, however, should not be blamed on
low oil prices. Long-standing legacies of colonialism, the
destruction wrought by Western-led wars and occupation, and the
relations of debt and dependency that bind these countries to the
centers of the global economy need to be placed up front in tackling
this pandemic.<br>
<br>
Nigeria, for example, may depend on oil for a large proportion of
government revenues, but more than half of these revenues are spent
simply on servicing existing foreign debt. Any attempt to move
beyond fossil fuel dependency at the global level must challenge
this combustible mix of oil, debt, and finance.<br>
<br>
At time of writing, there is talk of a possible deal between the
United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia around oil production
levels. It is unlikely that such a deal would have any sustained
effect on the price of oil, given the vast destruction of demand
that has occurred in recent weeks. Some observers have noted the
irony of seeing leading Republicans, who had previously called for
the dismantling of OPEC because of its "cartel"-like behavior, now
demanding greater market collusion with Saudi Arabia and Russia over
prices.<br>
<br>
There is no doubt that the mutually reinforcing crises of the
COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic downturn are provoking a
whole range of unexpected political realignments, strange
bedfellows, and new openings for political change. But this moment
is also one where previously existing arrangements may be reworked
and consolidated in the interests of the most powerful.<br>
<br>
We face the very real danger of an emboldened and resurgent oil
industry, positioned ever more centrally within our political and
economic systems. That would be a disastrous outcome of the current
pandemic.<br>
Many thanks to Jeffrey R. Webber for helpful suggestions on this
piece.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://jacobinmag.com/2020/04/big-oil-companies-climate-change-pandemic">https://jacobinmag.com/2020/04/big-oil-companies-climate-change-pandemic</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[great speeches from the video archive]<br>
<b>Climate Change: Why you should be angry and why anger isn't
enough: John Ashton at TEDxBedfordSchool</b><br>
Aug 20, 2013<br>
TEDx Talks<br>
About the Speaker: One of the world's top climate diplomats, John
Ashton is now an independent commentator and adviser on the politics
of climate change. From 2006-12 he served as Special Representative
for Climate Change to three successive UK Foreign Secretaries,
spanning the current Coalition and the previous Labour Government.
He was a cofounder and, from 2004-6, the first Chief Executive of
the think tank E3G. From 1978-2002, after a brief period as a
research astronomer, he was a career diplomat, with a particular
focus on China. He is a visiting professor at the London University
School of Oriental and African Studies, and a Distinguished Policy
Fellow at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial
College.<br>
<br>
About the Talk: If you are under 30 today, you are on track to find
out in your lifetime what unmanageable climate change will be like.
Business,politics and economics seem to have no response. What is
going wrong and how can you use your voice if you want this fixed in
time to fix your future?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq2Znc21TWY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq2Znc21TWY</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[legacy of taint]<br>
<b>S. Fred Singer (Deceased)</b><br>
Credentials <br>
B.E.E. (Electrical Engineering), Ohio State University. <br>
A.M. and Ph.D. (Physics), Princeton University. <br>
Background<br>
Siegfried Frederick Singer (S. Fred Singer) was a former space
scientist and government scientific administrator. He passed away in
2020 at the age of 95.<br>
<br>
Singer founded the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
in 1990, a 501(c)(3) "educational group" focusing on global warming
denial. According to their website, SEPP also reports to cover
topics such as nuclear radiation, DDT, science and regulation at
EPA, energy policy, and space exploration.<br>
<br>
According to SEPP, "sound, credible science must form the basis for
health and environmental decisions that affect millions of people
and cost tens of billions of dollars every year."..<br>
<br>
Leaked documents obtained by DeSmog revealed that Fred Singer had
also been receiving $5,000 a month from the Heartland Institute.
With the help of Craig Idso, Singer helped develop the Heartland
Institute's "Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change
(NIPCC),"...<br>
more at - <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.desmogblog.com/s-fred-singer">https://www.desmogblog.com/s-fred-singer</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
April 13, 2012 </b></font><br>
<p>In the Spokane, Washington Spokesman-Review, "Democracy Now" host
Amy Goodman observes: "The Pentagon knows it. The world's largest
insurers know it. Now, governments may be overthrown because of
it. It is climate change, and it is real. According to the U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, last month was
the hottest March on record for the United States since 1895, when
records were first kept, with average temperatures of 8.6 degrees
above average. More than 15,000 March high-temperature records
were broken nationally. Drought, wildfires, tornadoes and other
extreme weather events are already plaguing the country."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/apr/13/climate-change-a-hot-issue/">http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/apr/13/climate-change-a-hot-issue/</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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