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<i><font size="+1"><b>April 15, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[NYTimes Opinion]<br>
<b>Think This Pandemic Is Bad? We Have Another Crisis Coming</b><br>
Addressing climate change is a big-enough idea to revive the
economy.<br>
<br>
By Rhiana Gunn-Wright<br>
Ms. Gunn-Wright is director of climate policy at the Roosevelt
Institute.<br>
- - <br>
Leaders on both sides of the aisle have argued that folding policies
to address climate and environmental injustice into
coronavirus-related legislative packages would distract from efforts
to provide immediate relief. But addressing climate change and
environmental injustice will not diffuse efforts to address the
virus and its economic fallout if we apply intersectional policies
such as the Green New Deal. They are designed to address connected
issues in a way that protects the most vulnerable while building a
more just and sustainable economy...<br>
- - <br>
Some states have already begun to connect the coronavirus to climate
action. New York, for example, passed the Accelerated Renewable
Energy Growth and Community Benefit Act on April 3. The legislation
comes on the heels of the Climate Leadership and Community
Protection Act -- sometimes referred to as New York's Green New
Deal. And if New York's response is any indication, none of this
appears to have detracted from efforts to stop the spread of the
coronavirus.<br>
<br>
Addressing climate change doesn't have to slow down the economic
recovery, either. In fact, it can push it forward. No one knows the
depth of the recession, but it is hard to see how we will put the 16
million people who have filed for unemployment back to work without
significant public investment.<br>
<br>
If history is any indication, rebounding from an economic disruption
this large requires an equally large spike in demand and production.
Outside of war, climate change is the only issue large enough to
provide such a spike. Now is the time to create policies that
provide immediate relief to communities, such as federal assistance
to transition homes and businesses to renewable energy; give "green"
fiscal aid to states; and fuel economic recovery with the creation
of federally funded green jobs. But none of this can happen so long
as our leaders keep convincing themselves that the greatest country
in the world cannot walk and chew gum at the same time.<br>
<br>
A climate-focused economic recovery -- much less a coronavirus
response that acknowledges the climate crisis -- could require a new
Congress and a new president, a tall order in an America this
divided. But maybe it is time to stop acting as though politics is a
force of nature when we are facing actual and deadly forces of
nature. It's past time to elect leaders who are fit to handle the
crises we face, instead of hoping for problems small enough to fit
the leaders we have.<br>
<br>
The Americans I know would like to survive, even if it means our
country has to evolve -- which many of us have been ready for long
before the pandemic.<br>
Rhiana Gunn-Wright (@rgunns) is the director of climate policy at
the Roosevelt Institute.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/opinion/climate-change-covid-economy.html#commentsContainer">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/opinion/climate-change-covid-economy.html#commentsContainer</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
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[notice the money flow]<br>
<b>Big Banks Pull Financing, Prepare To Seize Assets From Collapsing
Oil and Gas Industry</b><br>
The finances of the oil and gas industry are so dismal that the
major banks that have funded the money-losing fracking boom are now
exploring taking the unusual step of taking over the oil companies
that cannot afford to pay back the banks' loans.<br>
<br>
Reuters reported that banks are exploring the option of seizing oil
company assets because the more traditional route of bankruptcy will
result in huge losses for the banks -- while seizing assets and
holding them until oil prices increase would likely minimize those
losses.<br>
<br>
Buddy Clark of law firm Haynes and Boone explained to Reuters that,
"Banks can now believably wield the threat that they will foreclose
on the company and its properties if they don't pay their loan
back."<br>
<br>
While banks seizing assets from borrowers who can't repay loans is
common for industries like real estate -- especially residential
real estate -- it is an unusual move for the oil and gas industry.
Reuters reported that the last time it happened was during the oil
price crash of the late 1980s. In the most recent oil price crash,
when oil dropped from prices over $100 a barrel to $40 a barrel,
there was a rash of bankruptcies, but the banks did not seize
assets.<br>
<br>
One difference now is that shale oil companies have continued to
increase debt -- thanks to loans from the banks -- to the point
where most of these companies are not viable with low oil prices. As
one industry observer recently noted in The New York Times, "This is
late '80s bad."<br>
<br>
One new angle that didn't exist in the 1980s is a dramatic change in
sentiment from parts of the investment community about the viability
of the oil industry as an investment. Television investment advisor
Jim Cramer of CNBC was saying oil stocks were in the "death knell
phase" in January, before oil prices crashed to the current lows and
the coronavirus had crushed global oil demand.<br>
<br>
More recently, in a remarkable opinion piece for Seeking Alpha, Kirk
Spano advised investors to get out of the industry now with a unique
twist on why this was urgent:<br>
<br>
"We are about to see a massive wave of shale oil bankruptcies by
thieving executives who have borrowed against assets and paid
themselves bonuses for years without regard to shareholder value."<br>
<br>
While DeSmog has commented on issues of potential industry fraud and
executives paying themselves while the companies they ran lost
money, it is a decided shift in sentiment when sites like
SeekingAlpha are calling for investors to get out and then "sue the
dirt out of the executives who have almost all broken fiduciary
duties."<br>
<br>
Which is why banks are now considering seizing the assets of the
failed oil companies -- it is a bad option for the banks but it is
the best one left...<br>
- - <br>
more at -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/04/13/big-banks-pulling-financing-oil-and-gas-industry">https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/04/13/big-banks-pulling-financing-oil-and-gas-industry</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[brief video cartoon]<br>
<b>Debunking Cranky Uncle on sea level rise</b><b><br>
</b>Apr 14, 2020<br>
John Cook<br>
A debunking of the "sea level rise is exaggerated" myth, using
cartoons from the Cranky Uncle vs. Climate Change book:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://crankyuncle.com/book">http://crankyuncle.com/book</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KO-Il4i9iis">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KO-Il4i9iis</a><br>
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</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[VICE checks the opposition]<br>
<b>Republicans Are Planning to Use Coronavirus to Gut Renewable
Energy</b><br>
Conservative groups aligned with the oil industry hope to block any
aid for the solar and wind industries, which have been decimated by
the pandemic.<br>
By Geoff Dembicki - Apr 13 2020<br>
- - -<br>
Ebell and others in the conservative movement are now looking ahead
to the next battle: preventing wind and solar companies from getting
tax credits and other incentives extended in "phase four" stimulus
negotiations that could begin later this month. "We will oppose any
attempt to provide long-term subsidies to any type of energy," Ebell
told VICE. "We would oppose any of the Green New Deal provisions as
well."...<br>
- -<br>
Now, more than ever, he said, the public needs to be paying close
attention to the actions of polluters and their allies, especially
as Congress begins debating the next round of COVID-19 stimulus.
"When a crisis like this occurs, where there's a significant amount
of confusion, mixed messages from government and generally less
transparency around meetings, really big policy decisions are made
very quickly behind closed doors," Collins said. This is the
context, he said, where fossil fuel interests can "potentially
secure some very significant wins."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/k7ev53/republicans-are-planning-to-use-coronavirus-to-gut-renewable-energy">https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/k7ev53/republicans-are-planning-to-use-coronavirus-to-gut-renewable-energy</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Head in the sand; head in the mud]<br>
<b>Will the next great pandemic come from the permafrost?</b><br>
As the Arctic warms, 'zombie' viruses and microbes are rising from
the thawing ground. But infectious diseases migrating north could
pose an even bigger threat to human and animal health<br>
Jimmy Thomson Apr 10, 2020 6 min read<br>
In November 2019, 50 scientists from around the world assembled at
Herrenhausen Palace in Hannover, Germany, to talk through an
emerging threat to public health: "zombie" viruses and microbes
emerging from the thawing ground.<br>
<br>
The frozen earth that covers much of the Arctic is home to growing
microbial communities. For centuries, they had lain dormant, barely
active or completely suspended, subsisting on minuscule pockets of
water squeezed between the ice. With the Arctic warming at two to
five times the global average, those pockets are becoming pools;
rivulets, rivers; and puddles, ponds. The Arctic is waking up, and
the microscopic organisms embedded in the land are coming back to
life. <br>
<br>
The scientists in Germany agreed the climate is warming and the
permafrost is thawing. But they wanted to know what it all means for
humans and the future of infectious disease. <br>
<br>
"The impetus from the meeting was [determining] what's going to thaw
out of the permafrost and kill us," says Susan Kutz, a professor of
ecosystem public health at the University of Calgary and one of the
scientists at the Hannover meeting. <br>
<br>
'A gigantic reservoir of ancient microbes or viruses'<br>
In a 2017 paper, a team of Belgian researchers describe the threats
to human health from microbes that were previously frozen in
permafrost. <br>
<br>
"Over the past few years, there has been increasing evidence that
the permafrost is a gigantic reservoir of ancient microbes or
viruses that may come back to life if environmental conditions
change and set them free again," the authors write.<br>
<br>
The paper describes a separate study in which two viruses emerged
from a single sample of 700-year-old caribou droppings. They were
both able to be resurrected.<br>
<br>
In 2014, scientists discovered a giant virus (a classification only
discovered a decade earlier) frozen in a 30,000-year-old ice core.
Like a scene out of a sci-fi movie, the scientists thawed it and
watched it take over an amoeba. <br>
<br>
The scientists concluded in a paper that their ability to resurrect
the virus suggests that thawing permafrost -- as a result of global
warming or industrial exploitation of circumpolar regions -- might
pose a threat to human or animal health.<br>
<br>
Evolutionary ecologist Ellen Decaestecker, who co-authored the 2017
paper, says the increasing encroachment of people into natural areas
worldwide is presenting new opportunities for health crises. <br>
<br>
"We are changing the environment very fast at this moment in terms
of habitat fragmentation and climate change," she says, adding that
people are also travelling more and more (or at least they were
before COVID-19 hit). "The chance that [an outbreak] happens as a
result of the combination of these factors is quite high." <br>
<br>
The viruses and microbes may also present another problem: they
could contain the blueprints for resistance to antibiotics or other
medicines. If given the chance, they could share that information
with their modern relatives.<br>
<br>
The world became aware of the infectious risk in the permafrost when
an outbreak of anthrax occurred in the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia
during the warm summer of 2016. Thousands of reindeer and a child
died, while dozens of people were hospitalized with bacterial
infections. Headlines blared that this was the start of a new wave
of frozen diseases that would not only reawaken but infect and kill
people. <br>
<br>
The reality, as is often the case, is a little more nuanced. <br>
<br>
A recently published paper suggests that a Russian anthrax
vaccination program for reindeer that was halted in 2007 probably
played a bigger role in the outbreak than a warm summer. The
reindeer that died may have been the first cohort without the
vaccination to be exposed to the bacterium, which can survive for
hundreds of years in the soil. <br>
<br>
While the permafrost theory shouldn't be discarded entirely, it
"might be a bit oversimplified," says study lead author Karsten
Hueffer, a veterinary microbiologist at the University of Alaska
Fairbanks. <br>
<br>
But the risk of thawing permafrost runs deeper than the re-emergence
of old diseases: a warmer Arctic brings brand new problems with it.
<br>
<br>
'Bigger fish to fry'<br>
Zombie viruses make for attention-grabbing headlines. But for the
people living in the Arctic, infectious diseases that come from more
mundane sources could pose a much greater threat. <br>
<br>
"I really think that with climate change, we probably have -- to put
it flippantly -- bigger fish to fry here," Hueffer says.<br>
<br>
Climate change and human intrusions are changing the landscape,
opening up new ways for microbes to get around and infect animals
and humans. <br>
<br>
New roads, new mines and new drilling programs are bringing more
people to the Arctic than ever before, just as the soil is beginning
to offer a multitude of freshly virulent germs. <br>
<br>
The same warming is inviting new species north -- some of which are
hosts for pathogens that can infect humans. Drinking water straight
out of Arctic streams and lakes, common practice in many places, is
becoming more risky as beavers push farther into the North. Beavers
are hosts to parasites like Giardia, which causes "beaver fever," a
painful, diarrhea-inducing abdominal sickness. Mosquitoes carrying
West Nile virus are being found farther and farther north as well.
This is adding stress to the thinly spread medical systems of the
North.<br>
<br>
"I'm concerned about the fact that we don't understand -- and we
very, very likely underestimate -- the effect of infectious disease
on wildlife," Kutz says. <br>
<br>
If wildlife is affected, humans can be affected, too. Diseases can
jump from animals to humans and deplete animal food sources people
rely on. <br>
<br>
Almost every herd of caribou, for instance, is declining
precipitously across North America. Kutz says the role infectious
disease is playing in that decline may have been overlooked, and
climate change is feeding the fire. <br>
<br>
Meanwhile, the infrastructure used to transport sewage is built on
rapidly thawing and heaving ground. Pipes can rupture and spill,
causing outbreaks of waterborne diseases.<br>
<br>
"The ways people have dealt with human waste may not now be
appropriate," Hueffer says. <br>
<br>
The final report of the meeting in Hannover hasn't been released
yet. But the general consensus, according to Kutz, was that we don't
need to worry about a disease as contagious and deadly as COVID-19
coming out of the permafrost based on what's been seen so far -- but
there are other reasons to be concerned. <br>
<br>
The thawing permafrost may be home to bacteria and viruses we
haven't yet encountered -- or, troublingly, ones that we have
encountered with disastrous results, such as the Spanish flu or
smallpox -- but much of their DNA is in fragments, is adapted to
infect other creatures or likely won't come into contact with
humans.<br>
<br>
The key, Kutz says, will be to watch the wildlife, and that's what
she is doing: her lab works in collaboration with Indigenous
harvesters across the Arctic to keep an eye on animal health.<br>
<br>
"If you think about the wildlife, their noses are in the grass,
they're digging in the dirt," she says. "They're the sentinels."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://thenarwhal.ca/next-great-pandemic-permafrost/">https://thenarwhal.ca/next-great-pandemic-permafrost/</a><br>
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<p><br>
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[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
April 15, 1988 </b></font><br>
<p>April 15, 1988: In a speech at St. John's University in New York,
Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore states (specifically in
reference to the threat of nuclear weapons, though the statement
certainly applies to *another* worldwide threat): "I believe that
it is possible that future generations will look back on this
election year of 1988 and wonder with amazement how we could have
let these problems go unattended for so long."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://c-spanvideo.org/program/GoreCampa">http://c-spanvideo.org/program/GoreCampa</a> (22:50--23:01) </p>
<p><br>
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