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<i><font size="+1"><b>May 25, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[learning to count]<br>
<b>Experts Warn Climate Change Is Already Killing Way More People
Than We Record</b><br>
CARLY CASSELLA25 MAY 2020<br>
People around the world are already dying from the climate crisis,
and yet all too often, official death records do not reflect the
impact of these large-scale environmental catastrophes.<br>
<br>
According to a team of Australian health experts, heat is the most
dominant risk posed by climate change in the country. If the world's
emissions remain the same, by 2080 Australian cities could see at
least four times the number of deaths from increasing temperatures
alone.<br>
<br>
"Climate change is a killer, but we don't acknowledge it on death
certificates," says physician Arnagretta Hunter from the Australian
National University.<br>
<br>
That's a potentially serious oversight. In a newly-published
correspondence, Hunter and four other public health experts estimate
Australia's mortality records have substantially underreported
heat-related deaths - at least 50-fold.<br>
<br>
While death certificates in Australia do actually have a section for
pre-existing conditions and other factors, external climate
conditions are rarely taken into account.<br>
<br>
Between 2006 and 2017, the analysis found less than 0.1 percent of
1.7 million deaths were attributed directly or indirectly to
excessive natural heat. But this new analysis suggests the nation's
heat-related mortality is around 2 percent.<br>
<br>
"We know the summer bushfires were a consequence of extraordinary
heat and drought and people who died during the bushfires were not
just those fighting fires – many Australians had early deaths due to
smoke exposure," says Hunter.<br>
"If you have an asthma attack and die during heavy smoke exposure
from bushfires, the death certificate should include that
information," she adds...<br>
- -<br>
But there are some places that will need to do more than just update
their current system. In the tropics, there's little valid mortality
data on the more than 2 billion people who live in this
heat-vulnerable region. And that makes predicting what will happen
to these communities in the future much trickier.<br>
<br>
"Climate change is the single greatest health threat that we face
globally even after we recover from coronavirus," says Hunter.<br>
<br>
"We are successfully tracking deaths from coronavirus, but we also
need healthcare workers and systems to acknowledge the relationship
between our health and our environment."<br>
<br>
In an unpredictable world, if we want to know where we're going, we
have to know where we've been. Figuring out how many of us have
already died from climate change will be key to that process. We
can't ignore it any longer.<br>
<br>
The correspondence was published in The Lancet Planetary Health.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.sciencealert.com/official-death-records-are-terrible-at-showing-how-many-people-are-dying-from-the-climate-crisis">https://www.sciencealert.com/official-death-records-are-terrible-at-showing-how-many-people-are-dying-from-the-climate-crisis</a><br>
- - -<br>
[source material from The Lancet]<br>
<b>Heat-related mortality: an urgent need to recognise and record</b><br>
National mortality records in Australia suggest substantial
under-reporting of heat-related mortality. Less than 0·1% of 1·7
million deaths between 2006 and 2017 were attributed directly or
indirectly to excessive natural heat (table). However, recent
research indicates that official records underestimate the
association at least 50-fold...<br>
- - <br>
Understanding the degree to which environmental factors affect human
health is important if the impact of climate change is to be fully
appreciated. As severe environmental events become more common,
correct reporting and attribution is needed for effective
evidence-based responses and to guide local, national, and global
adaptation.<br>
The issue of under-reporting death from heat parallels cases of
lightning strikes, in which the direct cause (eg, a falling tree
branch or the collapse of a building on fire) is reported without
any reference to the indirect cause (ie, the initial lightning
strike that triggered events culminating in death).<br>
Non-biomedical external factors are often omitted on death
certificates, contributing to inaccuracies in cause-of-death
estimations in many countries. Other factors contributing to poor
quality data include scarcity of resources necessary to maintain or
improve the data quality and a lack of physician training in death
certificate completion. In response to such weaknesses, many
countries are exploring ways to modernise death certification and
recording processes.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30100-5/fulltext">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30100-5/fulltext</a><br>
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[Scientific American - heating mechanisms]<br>
<b>Because of Rising CO2, Trees Might Be Warming the Arctic</b><br>
Less water loss from plants causes the surrounding air to warm, and
currents can transport that heat poleward<br>
By Chelsea Harvey, E&E News on May 24, 2020<br>
The Arctic is one of the fastest-warming places on the planet --and
scientists still aren't completely sure why.<br>
<br>
Melting snow and ice may be speeding up the warming. Changes in
atmospheric circulation could be playing a role. Many factors could
be influencing the region's temperatures, which are rising at least
twice as fast as the rest of the world.<br>
<br>
Now, scientists think they may have discovered an additional piece
of the puzzle. Plants, it turns out, may have an unexpected
influence on global warming.<br>
As carbon dioxide levels rise in the atmosphere, plants become more
efficient at carrying out photosynthesis and other basic life
functions. And they're often able to save more water in the process.<br>
<br>
Water that plants exchange with the air helps cool local
temperatures. When they lose less water, their surroundings start to
warm up.<br>
<br>
A study published last month in Nature Communications suggests that
this process is helping to warm the Arctic...<br>
- -<br>
In fact, the extra warming may actually contribute to other
processes also speeding up Arctic climate change.<br>
For instance, scientists believe that melting sea ice plays a big
role in Arctic warming. Sea ice, with its bright, reflective
surface, helps to beam sunlight away from the planet. As ice
disappears, more sunlight --and more heat --is able to get through
to the surface of the Earth.<br>
<br>
The extra heat drifting up from the lower latitudes may be helping
to melt sea ice at faster rates, the researchers suggest. And this,
in turn, also contributes to faster Arctic warming.<br>
Overall, the study estimates that the plant effect may account for
nearly 10% of the Arctic's warming each year. And it could explain
as much as 28% of the warming across the Northern Hemisphere's lower
latitudes...<br>
- - <br>
But there's also been some debate among scientists about the exact
effect of rising CO2 on plants.<br>
Plants take in CO2, and also exchange water with the atmosphere,
through tiny pores in their leaves called stomata. More CO2 means
plants don't have to keep their stomata open so wide. They can still
get enough carbon dioxide through smaller openings, and they can
save water in the process.<br>
<br>
On the other hand, more CO2 can sometimes cause an increase in plant
growth--and when there are more plants around, there's more water
being exchanged with the atmosphere.<br>
<br>
These two effects--more plant growth, but also smaller stomata
openings--can have conflicting effects on local temperatures.<br>
<br>
For now, recent studies suggest that the stomata effect tends to
win.<br>
<br>
"I think it's pretty clear that in many ecosystems, we actually
don't see as much plant growth as we sort of naively think we should
by bumping up the CO2," said Leander Anderegg, a postdoctoral
researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, and the
Carnegie Institution for Science who commented on the new research
for E&E News. "And there, the increase in these plants using
water more efficiently and closing stomata definitely offsets the
growth aspect."<br>
But, he added, the exact size of these effects is still uncertain
and can vary from place to place.<br>
<br>
"I think that it's something that is pretty well-established that
it's sort of like an important unknown," he said.<br>
<br>
So scientists are still working to understand exactly how much
influence plants have on the global climate. But other studies also
suggest they may play an important role.<br>
<br>
Previous research published in 2010 in the Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences has found that the plant effect will
increase global warming beyond what scientists would otherwise
expect, based on climate change projections. Other studies, such as
a 2018 analysis in Nature Communications, have suggested that the
same effect will amplify extreme heat events, causing more frequent
and more intense heat waves.<br>
<br>
And still other studies have linked the plant effect to regional
climate patterns in places outside the Arctic. For instance, one
study published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2018 found that
reduced water loss from plants may contribute to a drying pattern in
the Amazon.<br>
<br>
This is all an emerging area of research, with the exact magnitude
of the effects still unclear. As a result, the effect is not
well-represented --if at all --in most climate models.<br>
<br>
According to Kim, that means there's a chance that some model
projections could be underestimating future climate change,
particularly in the Arctic. More research may clarify whether that's
actually the case and exactly how much plants are contributing to
the warming that's happening all over the globe.<br>
<br>
For now, the fact that many studies with many models all seem to be
converging on the same basic idea gives scientists more confidence
that they're on the right track, Anderegg said.<br>
<br>
"And even if we have some amazing breakthroughs in how we model
plants ... I think what's absolutely durable about the paper is how
plants respond to CO2 isn't gonna save us," he added.<br>
Climatewire and E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy
and environmental news at <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.eenews.net">www.eenews.net</a>.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/because-of-rising-co2-trees-might-be-warming-the-arctic/">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/because-of-rising-co2-trees-might-be-warming-the-arctic/</a><br>
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[Two combine]<br>
<b>What a Week's Disasters Tell Us About Climate and the Pandemic</b><br>
Extreme weather presents an even bigger threat when economies are
crashing and ordinary people are stretched to their limits.<br>
By Somini Sengupta<br>
May 23, 2020<br>
- -<br>
Climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and more
intense. Now, because of the pandemic, they come at a time when
national economies are crashing and ordinary people are stretched to
their limits.<br>
<br>
Relief organizations working in eastern India and Bangladesh, for
instance, say the lockdown had already forced people to rely on food
aid by the time the storm, Cyclone Amphan, hit. Then, the high winds
and heavy rains ruined newly sown crops that were meant to feed
communities through next season. "People have nothing to fall back
on," Pankaj Anand, a director at Oxfam India, said in a statement
Thursday.<br>
The worst may be yet to come.<br>
<br>
Several other climate hazards are looming, as the coronavirus
unspools its long tail around the world. They include the prospect
of heat waves in Europe and South Asia, wildfires from the western
United States to Europe to Australia, and water scarcity in South
America and Southern Africa, where a persistent drought is already
deepening hunger.<br>
<br>
And then there's the locusts. Locusts.<br>
<br>
Abnormally heavy rains last year, which scientists say were made
more likely by the long-term warming of the Indian Ocean, a hallmark
of climate change, have exacerbated a locust infestation across
eastern Africa. Higher temperatures make it more inviting for
locusts to spread to places where the climate wasn't as suitable
before -- and in turn, destroy vast swaths of farmland and pasture
for some of the poorest people on the planet.<br>
<br>
While the risks are different from region to region, taken together,
"they should be seen as a sobering signal of what lies ahead for
countries all over the world," a group of scientists and economists
warned this month in an opinion piece in Nature Climate Change.<br>
The impacts will not be equal, though, they added. They stand to
exacerbate longstanding inequities, the experts said, and "put
specific populations at heightened risk and compromise recovery."...<br>
- -<br>
The impact of the accumulated warming is already felt by those who
were in the eye of Cyclone Amphan this week: those who live in the
delta regions of eastern India and Bangladesh, and who are at the
mercy of intensifying heat waves, sea level rise, storm surges and
super cyclones like this one.<br>
- -<br>
Traditional ways of coping during storms are now more dangerous,
too. Evacuating people to cyclone shelters has saved hundreds of
thousands of lives in past storms, but aid workers now worry that
the virus could spread quickly in shelters...<br>
- -<br>
"Reconstruction post Covid-19 should be shaped in a way that reduces
our vulnerability," she said. "That means both to prepare for
extreme climatic risks, and to reduce emissions that underpin the
climatic risks."<br>
- Somini Sengupta is an international climate correspondent.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/23/climate/climate-change-coronavirus.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/23/climate/climate-change-coronavirus.html</a><br>
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[Hydrogen in Australia]<br>
<b>Green Hydrogen : Can Australia lead the world?</b><br>
May 24, 2020<br>
Just Have a Think<br>
Green hydrogen, or renewable hydrogen, is now a very real commercial
prospect thanks to the plummeting prices of wind and solar power.
Australia's vast land mass, almost constant sun and wind, and access
to an array of minerals and resources really does make it the ideal
location for large scale hydrogen production powered by renewable
technologies. So can Australia move quickly enough to seize this
opportunity?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkuVE0SA1B8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkuVE0SA1B8</a><br>
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[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
May 25, 1992 </b></font><br>
The New York Times editorial page calls for a price on carbon,
stating:<br>
<blockquote>The threat of global warming raises two salient
questions: What's the economic cost of inaction? And what's the
cost of action -- taking steps to stop further warming?<br>
<br>
The models for studying these questions are primitive, yielding
little more than educated guesses. In the face of such numbing
uncertainty, the sensible course is a policy of "no regrets." The
U.S. would take measures -- including a tax on carbon-based fuels
-- to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases as part of an overall
strategy to reduce pollution to desirable levels.<br>
<br>
Reducing pollution makes sense whether or not global warming
occurs. And at the end of the decade, with the benefit of more
information and new technologies, the U.S. could decide whether
more aggressive actions were warranted.<br>
<br>
If global temperatures rise 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit by late next
century, as expected, the cost to the U.S., mainly in lower
agriculture yields, would probably be 1 to 2 percent of total
output, or less than $120 billion.<br>
<br>
This large, though not staggering, number would almost certainly
balloon over time. And countries less geographically fortunate
could suffer losses many times those of the U.S.<br>
<br>
Estimates of the costs of countering greenhouse emissions vary
widely. Studies based solely on technological fixes say the cost
is negligible. But the conclusions are unconvincing because the
studies overlook the problem of putting new technologies to use.<br>
<br>
Economic models tell a grimmer story. Lowering emissions by 20
percent from 1990 levels -- by, for example, switching to cleaner
but more expensive fuels -- might cost the U.S. between $120
billion and $300 billion.<br>
<br>
But the true cost of stabilizing global emissions will be
substantially higher because the West will have to cut emissions
by far more than 20 percent. Otherwise poor countries like China
and India will have too little room to grow. Rather than
assaulting global warming, many countries might decide to spend
the money instead on more pressing problems like feeding the
hungry.<br>
<br>
The prudent course for the West is to impose taxes that help the
environment, and incidentally combat global warming. The best
choice would be a modest tax on carbon-based fuels.<br>
<br>
A carbon tax equivalent to, say, 25 cents per gallon of gasoline
would help reduce pollution. Incidentally, it might be enough to
help cut back greenhouse emissions in the West to 1990 levels by
2000 -- the policy environmentalists fought, unsuccessfully, to
have adopted at next month's Earth Summit in Brazil. The problem
with pledging to hit that target is that a modest tax might not be
enough, requiring the West to renege or impose cripplingly higher
taxes.<br>
<br>
That's why the U.S. is better off committing itself to a fixed tax
than a fixed timetable for emissions. A carbon tax would help the
environment but, by letting the timetable slip if necessary, risk
doing little harm.<br>
<br>
A carbon tax would show U.S. resolve -- the bite that George
Bush's no-regrets policy now lacks.."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/25/opinion/on-global-warming-why-no-carbon-tax.html?gwt=regi">http://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/25/opinion/on-global-warming-why-no-carbon-tax.html?gwt=regi</a><br>
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